Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling

Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern coast of Iran. This is a possible site for a future large earthquake and tsunami. In addition, we performed numerical modeling to explain some ambiguities in the historical reports. Based on the modeling results, we conclude that either the extreme run-up of 12–15 m assigned for the 1945 Makran tsunami in the historical record was produced by a submarine landslide triggered by the parent earthquake, or that these reports are exaggerated. The other possibility could be the generation of the huge run-up heights by large displacements on splay faults. The results of run-up modeling reveal that a large earthquake and tsunami in the MSZ is capable of producing considerable run-up heights in the far field. Therefore, it is possible that the MSZ was the source of the tsunami encountered by a Portuguese fleet in Dabhul in 1524.     

The reduction effects of mangrove forest on a tsunami based on field surveys at Pakarang Cape,Thailand and numerical analysis

Using an integrated approach including satellite imagery analysis, field measurements, and numerical modeling, we investigated the damage to mangroves caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami at Pakarang Cape in Pang Nga Province, Thailand. Comparing pre- and post-tsunami satellite imagery of the study area, we found that approximately 70% of the mangrove forest was destroyed by the tsunami. Based on field observations, we found that the survival rate of mangroves increased with increasing stem diameter. Specifically, we found that 72% of Rhizophora trees with a 25–30 cm stem diameter survived the tsunami impact, whereas only 19% with a 15–20 cm stem diameter survived. We simulated the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami using the nonlinear shallow-water wave theory to reproduce the tsunami inundation flow and investigated the bending moment acting on the mangrove trees. Results of the numerical model showed that the tsunami inundated areas along the mangrove creeks, and its current velocity reached 5.0 m s⁻¹. Based on the field measurements and numerical results, we proposed a fragility function for mangroves, which is the relationship between the probability of damage and the bending stress caused by the maximum bending moment. We refined the numerical model to include the damage probability of mangrove forests using the obtained fragility function to investigate the tsunami reduction effect of mangrove forest. Under simple numerical conditions related to the mangrove forest, ground level, and incident wave, the model showed that a mangrove forest of Rhizophora sp. with a density of 0.2 trees m⁻² and a stem diameter of 15 cm in a 400 m wide area can reduce the tsunami inundation depth by 30% when the incident wave is assumed to have a 3.0 m inundation depth and a wave period of 30 min at the shoreline. However, 50% of the mangrove forest is destroyed by a 4.5 m tsunami inundation depth, and most of the mangrove forest is destroyed by a tsunami inundation depth greater than 6 m. The reduction effect of tsunami inundation depth decreased when the tsunami inundation depth exceeded 3 m, and was mostly lost when the tsunami inundation depth exceeded 6 m.     

2016年全球地震海啸监测预警与数值模拟研究

回顾了国家海洋环境预报中心(国家海洋局海啸预警中心)2016年全球地震海啸监测预警的总体状况, 并基于震源生成模型和海啸传播数值模型的计算结果详细介绍了几次主要海啸事件及其影响特性。2016年全年国家海洋环境预报中心总共对全球6.5级(中国近海5.5级)以上海底地震响应了45次,发布海啸信息81期, 没有发生对我国有明显影响的海啸。结合精细化的数值模拟结果和浮标监测数据,重点介绍了苏门达腊7.8级地震海啸、厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸、新西兰7.1级和7.8级地震海啸, 以及所罗门7.8级地震海啸的波动特征和传播规律, 模拟结果与实测海啸波符合较好。针对厄瓜多尔7.8级地震海啸事件, 本文比较分析了均匀断层模型和多源有限断层模型对模拟结果的影响; 针对新西兰7.1级地震海啸, 探讨了色散效应对海啸波在大水深、远距离传播过程的影响规律。     

Tsunami mapping in the Gulf of Guayaquil,Ecuador, due to local seismicity

The North-Andean subduction zone generates recurrent tsunamigenic earthquakes. The seismicity is usually considered to be segmented because of different specific morphological features of the Nazca Plate driving the subduction motion. Most of the recent powerful earthquakes in the margin were located in its northern part. To the south, the region of the Gulf of Guayaquil, only (undocumented) three events in 1901, 1933 and 1953 were possibly powerful and tsunamigenic. Here we are interested in the tsunami signature due to local seismicity. Two realistic earthquake scenarios (M_w = 7 and M_w = 7.5) taking into account the hypothesized segmentation of the area are proposed. Their return period is supposed to be intra-centenary. Then, a larger magnitude unsegmented M_w = 8 scenario is computed (half-millennium return period). The interior of the Gulf of Guayaquil as well as the Santa Elena Peninsula are sheltered areas including numerous coastal infrastructures and the city of Guayaquil. It is predicted that potential flooding would occur at high tide only for both segmented and unsegmented scenarios in (1) south of Playas with however only a few centimeters of wave height and (2) Chanduy (a few meters). Both are important zones of coastal farms.     

The Kuril Earthquakes and tsunamis of November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007: Observations,analysis, and numerical modeling

Major earthquakes occurred in the region of the Central Kuril Islands on November 15, 2006 (M _w = 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M _w = 8.1). These earthquakes generated strong tsunamis recorded throughout the entire Pacific Ocean. The first was the strongest trans-Pacific tsunami of the past 42 years (since the Alaska tsunami in 1964). The high probability of a strong earthquake (M _w ≥ 8.5) and associated destructive tsunami occurring in this region was predicted earlier. The most probable earthquake source region was investigated and possible scenarios for the tsunami generation were modeled. Investigations of the events that occurred on November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007, enabled us to estimate the validity of the forecast and compare the parameters of the forecasted and observed earthquakes and tsunamis. In this paper, we discuss the concept of “seismic gaps,” which formed the basis for the forecast of these events, and put forward further assumptions about the expected seismic activity in the region. We investigate the efficiency of the tsunami warning services and estimate the statistical parameters for the observed tsunami waves that struck the Far Eastern coast of Russia and Northern Japan. The propagation and transformation of the 2006 and 2007 tsunamis are studied using numerical hydrodynamic modeling. The spatial characteristics of the two events are compared.     

有限断层模型在2015年9月16日智利Mw8.3级地震海啸数值模拟中的应用与评估

2015年9月16日22时54分（当地时间）智利中部近岸发生M_w8.3级地震,震源深度25 km。同时,强震的破裂区长200 km,宽100 km,随之产生了中等强度的越洋海啸。海啸影响了智利沿岸近700 km的区域,局部地区监测到近5 m的海啸波幅和超过13 m的海啸爬坡高度。太平洋区域的40多个海啸浮标及200多个近岸潮位观测站详细记录了此次海啸的越洋传播过程,为详细研究此次海啸近场及远场传播及演化规律提供了珍贵的数据。本文选择有限断层模型和自适应网格海啸数值模型建立了既可以兼顾越洋海啸的计算效率又可以实现近场海啸精细化模拟的高分辨率海啸模型。模拟对比分析了海啸的越洋传播特征,结果表明采用所建立的模型可以较好地再现远场及近场海啸特征,特别是对近场海啸的模拟结果非常理想。表明有限断层可以较好地约束近场、特别是局部区域的破裂特征,可为海啸预警提供更加精确的震源信息,结合高分辨率的海啸数值预报模式实现海啸传播特征的精细化预报。本文结合观测数据与数值模拟结果初步分析了海啸波的频散特征及其对模型结果的影响。同时对观测中典型的海啸波特征进行的简要的总结。谱分析结果表明海啸波的能量主要分布在10~50 min周期域内。这些波特征提取是现行海啸预警信息中未涉及,但又十分重要的预警参数。进一步对这些波动特征的详细研究将为海啸预警信息及预警产品的完善提供技术支撑。     

Profiles of fully developed (Airy) waves in different water depths

Airy waves have a sinusoidal profile in deep water that can be modeled by a time series at any point x and time t, given by η(x,t) = (H_o/2) cos[2πx/L_o − 2πt/T_w], where H_o is the deepwater height, L_o is the deepwater wavelength, and T_w is the wave period. However, as these waves approach the shore they change in form and dimension so that this equation becomes invalid. A method is presented to reconstruct the wave profile showing the correct wavelength, wave height, wave shape, and displacement of the water surface with respect to the still water level for any water depth.     

马尼拉俯冲带潜在地震海啸对华南沿海的影响

马尼拉俯冲带潜在地震海啸对我国南部沿海城市构成巨大威胁,利用情景式数值模拟技术重构灾害过程并评估危险等级有助于理解南海海啸传播规律并指导预警预报和防灾减灾工作。根据美国太平洋海洋环境研究中心(Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, PMEL)发布的马尼拉俯冲带断层参数设计M_w 7.5、M_w 8.1和M_w 8.5三个震级下共19个震源,应用非静压海啸数值模型(Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVE, NEOWAVE)模拟各震源激发海啸在南海海盆的传播过程,通过最大波辐和测点时间序列发现海啸波能量传输分布并评估代表区域危险等级。研究表明, M_w 7.5级地震海啸对我国南部沿海的影响较低,波幅一般不超过30 cm; M_w 8.1级地震海啸对华南沿海主要造成太平洋海啸预警中心定义的Ⅱ或Ⅲ级海啸危险等级,海啸影响范围和能量分布特征由震源位置决定; M_w 8.5级地震海啸主要对中国沿海构...     

Mathematical modelling of volcanic tsunamis

The height of widespread tsunami runup about the Bay of Plenty from various volcanic scenarios involving eruptions at White Island is shown to be insignificant in all cases considered, except for Krakatoa‐type explosions. The problem of localised inundation remains unanswered. Some definitions describing volcanic tsunami risk, introduced recently by J. Latter (Bulletin volcanologique 1982), are briefly mentioned. All numerical calculations assumed cylindrical symmetry and used a flux‐corrected Lax‐Wendroff algorithm to solve the modified shallow water equations of Peregrine.     

Regional long-period magnitude scales and their capabilities for tsunami warning

The tsunami warning system in the Russian Far East employs the medium-period magnitude MS (BB) by Vaniek–Soloviev. However, its use may lead to inadequacies and underestimates for the tsunamigenic potential of an earthquake. Specifically, this can happen in the case of a so-called tsunami–earthquake. This kind of earthquakes with a nonstandard spectrum was revealed by H. Kanamori in 1972. This problem can be overcome by using a magnitude scale that deals with longer period seismic waves. This study develops a technique for determining the magnitudes at regional distances (from 70 to 4500 km) using the amplitudes of surface seismic waves of periods of 40 and 80 s. At distances of 70–250 km, the amplitude of the joint group of shear and surface waves is used. For the new magnitudes designated M _S(40) and M _S(80), experimental calibration curves are constructed using more than 1250 three-component records at 12 stations of the region. The magnitudes are calibrated so as to produce an unbiased estimate of the moment magnitude M _w in the critical range 7.5–8.8. The rms error of the single-station estimate M _w is around 0.27. At distances below 250 km and M _w ≥ 8.3, the estimate of M _w obtained by the proposed technique becomes saturated at the level of M _w ~ 8.3, which is acceptable for operative analysis because no missed alarms arise. The technique can be used in operational tsunami warning based on seismological data. This can markedly decrease the number of false alarms.     

Propagating tsunami wave and subsequent resonant response signals detected by HF radar in the Kii Channel,Japan

Signals from the tsunami waves induced by the March 11, 2011 moment magnitude (M_w) 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and from subsequent resonances were detected as radial velocity variability by a high-frequency ocean surface radar (HF radar) installed on the eastern coast of the Kii Channel, at a range of about 1000 km from the epicenter along the eastern to southern coasts of Honshu Island. A time–distance diagram of band-passed (9–200 min) radial velocity along the beam reveals that the tsunami waves propagated from the continental shelf slope to the inner channel as progressive waves for the first three waves, and then natural oscillations were excited by the waves; and that the direction of the tsunami wave propagation and the axis of the natural oscillations differed from that of the radar beam. In addition, spectral analyses of the radial velocities and sea surface heights obtained in the channel and on the continental shelf slope suggest complex natural oscillation modes excited by the tsunami waves.     

Vulnerability assessment of the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccan coast: The case of the Mediterranean eastern zone

The eastern part of the Mediterranean coast of Morocco is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise, due to its low topography and its high ecological and touristic value. Assessment of the potential land loss by inundation has been based on empirical approaches using a minimum inundation level of 2 m and a maximum inundation level of 7 m, where scenarios for future sea-level rise range from 200 to 860 mm, with a ‘best estimate’ of 490 mm. The socio-economic impacts have been based on two possible alternative futures: (1) a ‘worst-case’ scenario, obtained by combining the ‘economic development first’ scenario with the maximum inundation level; and (2) a ‘best-case’ scenario, by combining the ‘sustainability first’ scenario with the minimum inundation level. Inundation analysis, based on Geographical Information Systems and a modelling approach to erosion, has identified both locations and the socioeconomic sectors that are most at risk to accelerated sea-level rise.     

2015年9月16日智利Mw 8.3级地震:海啸波从近场到远场的特征分析

On September 16, 2015, an earthquake with magnitude of M_w 8.3 occurred 46 km offshore from Illapel, Chile,generating a 4.4-m local tsunami measured at Coquimbo. In this study, the characteristics of tsunami are presented by a combination of analysis of observations and numerical simulation based on sources of USGS and NOAA. The records of 16 DART buoys in deep water, ten tidal gauges along coasts of near-field, and ten coastal gauges in the far-field are studied by applying Fourier analyses. The numerical simulation based on nonlinear shallow water equations and nested grids is carried out to provide overall tsunami propagation scenarios, and the results match well with the observations in deep water and but not well in coasts closed to the epicenter. Due to the short distance to the epicenter and the shelf resonance of southern Peru and Chile, the maximum amplitude ranged from 0.1 m to 2 m, except for Coquimbo. In deep water, the maximum amplitude of buoys decayed from9.8 cm to 0.8 cm, suggesting a centimeter-scale Pacific-wide tsunami, while the governing period was 13–17 min and 32 min. Whereas in the far-field coastal region, the tsunami wave amplified to be around 0.2 m to 0.8 m,mostly as a result of run-up effect and resonance from coast reflection. Although the tsunami was relatively moderate in deep water, it still produced non-negligible tsunami hazards in local region and the coasts of farfield.     

Reconstructing tsunami run-up from the characteristics of tsunami deposits on the Thai Andaman Coast

Tsunamis can leave deposits on the land surface they inundate. The characteristics of tsunami deposits can be used to calculate tsunami run-up height and velocity. This paper presents a reconstruction of tsunami run-up from tsunami deposit characteristics in a simple mathematical model. The model is modified and applied to reconstruct tsunami run-ups at Ao Kheuy beach and Khuk Khak beach, Phangnga province, Thailand. The input parameters are grain-size and maximum run-up distance of the sediment. The reconstructed run-up heights are 4.16–4.91 m at Ao Kheuy beach and 5.43–9.46 m at Khuk Khak beach. The estimated run-up velocities (maximum velocity) at the still water level are 12.78–19.21 m/s. In the area located 70–140 m inland to the end of run-up inundation, estimated mean run-up velocities decrease from approximately 1.93 m/s to 0 m/s. Reasonably good agreements are found between reconstructed and observed run-up heights. The tsunami run-up height and velocity can be used for risk assessment and coastal development programs in the tsunami affected area. The results show that the area from 0 to 140 m inland was flooded by high velocity run-ups and those run-up energies were dissipated mainly in this area. The area should be designated as either an area where settlement is not permitted or an area where effective protection is provided, for example with flood barriers or forest.     

Assessment of tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province,China

Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other extreme oceanic conditions. The results of this study will be useful for the design of coastal engineering projects and the establishment of a tsunami warning system for Shandong Province.     

Tsunamis in the central part of the Caspian Sea

This paper describes the geotectonics of the Caspian Sea basin and the seismicity of its central part. The seismicity analysis enables us to identify the most probable zones of tsunami generation. We also present a brief review of the historical records of tsunamis in the Caspian Sea. In order to estimate the tsunami risk, we used the method of numerical hydrodynamic simulation while taking into account the real topography of the Caspian Sea. The computation of the wave field for the possible tsunamis occurring in the central part of the Caspian Sea allowed us to estimate the maximum expected heights of the waves along the coast of the CIS countries (Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan). On the basis of the earthquake statistics in the region and the results of numerical experiments, we show that the extreme wave heights can reach 10 m at certain parts of the coast. Such extreme events correspond to extended (up to 200 km) seismic sources with M _S ～ 8 and a recurrence period of T ≈ 1600 years. The tsunami wave heights are expected to be as high as 3 m for sources of lesser extent (<50 km) with earthquake magnitudes of M _S ～ 7 and a recurrence period of 200 years.     

Scenarios of local tsunamis in the China Seas by Boussinesq model

The Okinawa Trench in the East China Sea and the Manila Trench in the South China Sea are considered to be the regions with high risk of potential tsunamis induced by submarine earthquakes. Tsunami waves will impact the southeast coast of China if tsunamis occur in these areas. In this paper, the horizontal two-dimensional Boussinesq model is used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and runnp in a domain with complex geometrical boundaries. The temporary varying bottom boundary condition is adopted to describe the initial tsunami waves motivated by the submarine faults. The Indian Ocean tsunami is simulated by the numerical model as a validation case. The time series of water elevation and runup on the beach are compared with the measured data from field survey. The agreements indicate that the Boussinesq model can be used to simulate tsunamis and predict the waveform and runup. Then, the hypothetical tsunamis in the Okinawa Trench and the Manila Trench are simulated by the numerical model. The arrival time and maximum wave height near coastal cities are predicted by the model. It turns out that the leading depression N-wave occurs when the tsunami propagates in the continental shelf from the Okinawa Trench. The scenarios of the tsunami in the Manila Trench demonstrate significant effects on the coastal area around the South China Sea.     

The 26 December 2004 Sumatra tsunami recorded on the coast of West Africa

Analysis of sea-level data obtained from the Atlantic Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) sea-level station at Takoradi, Ghana, West Africa, clearly reveals a tsunami signal associated with the M_w = 9.3 Sumatra earthquake of 26 December 2004 in the Indian Ocean. The tsunami arrived at this location on 27 December 2004 at approximately 01:38 UTC (which is close to the expected tsunami arrival time at that site), after travelling for more than 24 hours. The first wave was negative (trough), in contrast with the South African stations where the first wave was mainly positive (crest). The dominant observed period at Takoradi was about 42 minutes. The maximum trough-to-crest wave height (41cm) was observed on 28 December at 00:15 UTC. There were two distinct tsunami 'bursts', separated in time by about 14 hours, the larger being the second burst. A small residual lowering of the sea level (～15cm) during the tsunami and for several days afterwards, and a delayed (～4.5 days) lowering of seawater temperature (up to ～4.5°C), was observed, possibly indicating the presence of internal waves through the Gulf of Guinea associated with propagating tsunami waves. The prominent tsunami signal found in the Takoradi record suggests that tsunami waves could also be found at other sites off the West African coast.     

南海主要岛礁概率海啸风险评估

影响地震海啸的震源参数众多且具有很强的不确定性,充分评估海啸风险需要大量的情景模拟。本文基于建立的概率海啸风险模型,采用一种高效的海啸模拟方法,评估了南海主要岛礁的概率海啸风险。通过对历史地震数据的分析,综合考虑震级、震中位置、震源深度的随机性,形成了百万数量级的潜在地震情景集,并通过叠加近似方法实现了大量地震情景引发海啸过程的模拟。该方法将数量庞大的地震海啸情景转化为有限的单位源水位扰动的传播计算,利用单位扰动源的传播演进数据库,计算目标位置的水位波动过程,可以很大程度上降低大规模情景模拟的计算负担。基于大规模情景模拟,结合各情景出现的概率,客观地给出了南海主要岛礁的海啸波高重现期,为海岛防灾减灾提供参考。研究结果表明,大多数目标岛礁处百年一遇的海啸波高不超过0.4 m。南海内不同位置处的海啸风险有较大差异,东沙群岛附近百年一遇的海啸波高超过0.6 m,而西沙的永乐群岛和南沙群岛的海啸波高显著低于其他区域。     

Tsunami Inundation Modelling for the Coast of Kerala,India

The disastrous tsunami of December 26, 2004, exposed the urgent need for implementing a tsunami warning system. One of the essential requirements of a tsunami warning system is the set up of tsunami inundation models which can predict inundation and run-up along a coastline for a given set of seismic parameters. The Tsunami Warning Centre and the State/District level Disaster Management Centres should have tsunami inundations maps for different scenarios of tsunami generation. In the event of a tsunamigenic earthquake, appropriate decisions on issue of warnings and/or evacuation of coastal population are made by referring to such maps. The nature of tsunami inundation and run-up along the Kerala coast for the 2004 Sumatra and 1945 Makran, and a hypothetical worst-case scenario are simulated using the TUNAMI N2 model and the results are presented in this paper. Further, scenarios of tsunami inundation arising out of possible rise in sea level as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001) are also simulated and analysed in the paper. For the study, three representative sectors of the Kerala coast including the Neendakara-Kayamkulam coast, which was the worst hit by the 2004 tsunami, are chosen. The results show that the southern locations and certain locations of central Kerala coast are more vulnerable for Sumatra when compared to Makran 1945 tsunami. From the results of numerical modelling for future scenarios it can be concluded that sea level rise can definitely make pronounced increase in inundation in some of the stretches where the backshore elevation is comparatively low.