Reconstruction of Mediterranean sea level fields for the period 1945–2000

The distribution of sea level in the Mediterranean Sea is recovered for the period 1945–2000 by using a reduced space optimal interpolation analysis. The method involves estimating empirical orthogonal functions from satellite altimeter data spanning the period 1993–2005 that are then combined with tide gauge data to recover sea level fields over the period 1945–2000. The reconstruction technique is discussed and its robustness is checked through different tests. For the altimetric period (1993–2000) the prediction skill is quantified over the whole domain by comparing the reconstructed fields with satellite altimeter observations. For past times the skill can only be tested locally, by validating the reconstruction against independent tide gauge records. The reconstructed distribution of sea level trends for the period 1945–2000 shows a positive peak in the Ionian Sea (up to 1.5 mm yr^− 1) and a negative peak of − 0.5 mm yr^− 1 in a small area to the south-east of Crete. Positive trends are found nearly everywhere, being larger in the western Mediterranean (between 0.5 and 1 mm yr^− 1) than in the eastern Mediterranean (between 0 and 0.5 mm yr^− 1). The estimated rate of mean sea level rise for the period 1945–2000 is 0.7 ± 0.2 mm yr^− 1, i.e. about a half of the rate estimated for global mean sea level. These overall results do not appear to be very sensitive to the distribution of tide gauges. The poorest results are obtained in open-sea regions with intense mesoscale variability not correlated with any tide gauge station, such as the Algerian Basin.     

Interannual variability of regional climate and its change due to the greenhouse effect

Interannual variability of regional climate was investigated on a seasonal basis. Observations and two global climate model (GCM) simulations were intercompared to identify model biases and climate change signals due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Observed record length varies from 40 to 100 years, while the model output comes from two 100-year equilibrium climate simulations corresponding to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at observed 1990 and projected 2050 levels. The GCM includes an atmosphere based on the NCAR CCM1 with the addition of the radiative effects of CH₄, N₂O and CFCs, a bulk layer land surface and a mixed-layer ocean with thermodynamic sea-ice and fixed meridional oceanic heat transport.Because comparisons of interannual variability are sensitive to the time period chosen, a climate ensemble technique has been developed. This technique provides comparisons between variance ratios of two time series for all possible contiguous sub-periods of a fixed length. The time autocorrelation is thus preserved within each sub-period. The optimal sub-period length was found to be 30 years, based on which robust statistics of the ensemble were obtained to identify substantial differences in interannual variability that are both physically important and statistically significant.Several aspects of observed interannual variability were reproduced by the GCM. These include: global surface air temperature; Arctic sea-ice extent; and regional variability of surface air temperature, sea level pressure and 500 mb height over about one quarter of the observed data domains. Substantial biases, however, exist over broad regions, where strong seasonality and systematic links between variables were identified. For instance, during summer substantially greater model variability was found for both surface air temperature and sea-level pressure over land areas between 20–50°N, while this tendency was confined to 20–30°N in other seasons. When greenhouse gas concentrations increase, atmospheric moisture variability is substantially larger over areas that experience the greatest surface warming. This corresponds to an intensified hydrologic cycle and, hence, regional increases in precipitation variability. Surface air temperature variability increases where hydrologic processes vary greatly or where mean soil moisture is much reduced. In contrast, temperature variability decreases substantially where sea-ice melts completely. These results indicate that regional changes in interannual variability due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are associated with mechanisms that depend on the variable and season.     

Are sea-level-rise trends along the coasts of the north Indian Ocean consistent with global estimates?

Mean-sea-level data from coastal tide gauges in the north Indian Ocean were used to show that low-frequency variability is consistent among the stations in the basin. Statistically significant trends obtained from records longer than 40 years yielded sea-level-rise estimates between 1.06–1.75 mm yr^− 1, with a regional average of 1.29 mm yr^− 1, when corrected for global isostatic adjustment (GIA) using model data. These estimates are consistent with the 1–2 mm yr^− 1 global sea-level-rise estimates reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.     

Climatic and biological simulations in a two-way coupled atmosphere–biosphere model (CABM)

Today, most land surface process models have prescribed seasonal change of vegetation with regard to the exchange processes between land and the atmosphere. However, in order to consider the real interaction between vegetation and atmosphere and represent it best in a climate model, the vegetation growth process should be included. In other words, “life” should be brought into climate models. In this study, we have coupled the physical and biological components of AVIM (Atmosphere–Vegetation Interaction Model), a land surface model including plant ecophysiological processes, into the IAP/LASG L9 R15 GOALS GCM. To exhibit terrestrial vegetation information, the vegetation is given a high resolution of 1.5° by 1.5° to nest and couple the fine grid cells of land with the coarse grid cells of atmosphere, which is 7.5° longitude and 4.5° latitude. The simulated monthly mean surface air temperature and precipitation is close to the observations. The monthly mean Leaf Area Index (LAI) is consistent with the observed data. The global annual mean net primary production (NPP) simulation is also reasonable. The coupled model is stable, providing a good platform for research on two-way interaction between land and atmosphere, and the global terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle.     

Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest net primary production in China over the past two decades

Forest ecosystems play an important role in global carbon cycle regulation. Clarifying the dynamics and mechanism of carbon sink is of both scientific and political importance. In this paper, we have investigated the spatiotemporal change of forest net primary production (NPP) in China for recent two decades based on the geographically weighted regression (GWR) with a cumulative remote sensing index, the maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI_max). GWR is a recently developed regression method with special emphasis on spatial non-stationarity. Outputs of forest NPP at three different stages was generated by the GWR model with NDVI_max for the 1980s, early and late 1990s which were consequently analyzed. Our results indicated a wave-like pattern of change in forest NPP in the three stages with a trough-like depression for the early 1990s. The average forest NPP increased by about 0.72% from the 1980s to the late 1990s. A continuously increasing trend at a pace of 0.07% and 0.22% yr^− 1 was observed in the tropical and subtropical zones from the 1980s to late 1990s respectively, while a continuously decreasing trend (− 0.05% yr^− 1) was noted for the temperate zone. From forest type perspective, only the deciduous broadleaf forests exhibited a continuously decreasing trend of 0.18% yr^− 1. The complex spatiotemporal patterns revealed by this study suggest the need for further research in this direction in order to build in-depth insights into the revealed complexities.     

Climate changes and recent glacier behaviour in the Chilean Lake District

Atmospheric temperatures measured at the Chilean Lake District (38°–42°S) showed contrasting trends during the second half of the 20th century. The surface cooling detected at several meteorological stations ranged from − 0.014 to − 0.021 °C a^− 1, whilst upper troposphere (850–300 gpm) records at radiosonde of Puerto Montt (41°26′S/73°07′W) revealed warming between 0.019 and 0.031 °C a^− 1. Regional rainfall data collected from 1961 to 2000 showed the overall decrease with a maximum rate of − 15 mm a^− 2 at Valdivia st. (39°38′S/73°05′W). These ongoing climatic changes, especially the precipitation reduction, seem to be related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena which has been more frequent after 1976. Glaciers within the Chilean Lake District have significantly retreated during recent decades, in an apparent out-of-phase response to the regional surface cooling. Moreover, very little is known about upper troposphere changes and how they can enhance the glacier responses. In order to analyse their behaviour in the context of the observed climate changes, Casa Pangue glacier (41°08′S/71°52′W) has been selected and studied by comparing Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) computed at three different dates throughout the last four decades. This approach allowed the determination of ice elevation changes between 1961 and 1998, yielding a mean thinning rate of − 2.3 ± 0.6 m a^− 1. Strikingly, when ice thinning is computed for the period between 1981 and 1998, the resulting rate is 50% higher (− 3.6 ± 0.6 m a^− 1). This enhanced trend and the related area loss and frontal retreat suggests that Casa Pangue might currently be suffering negative mass balances in response to the upper troposphere warming and decreased precipitation of the last 25–30 yr, as well as debris cover would not prevent the glacier from a fast reaction to climate forcing. Most of recent glaciological studies regarding Andean glaciers have concentrated on low altitude changes, namely frontal variations, however, in order to better understand the regional glacier changes, new data are necessary, especially from the accumulation areas.     

Continental-scale comparisons of terrestrial carbon sinks estimated from satellite data and ecosystem modeling 1982–1998

A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems from 1982 to 1998. The NASA–CASA model was driven by vegetation properties derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and radiative transfer algorithms that were developed for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). For the terrestrial biosphere, predicted net ecosystem production (NEP) flux for atmospheric CO₂ has varied widely between an annual source of −0.9 Pg C per year and a sink of +2.1 Pg C per year. The southern hemisphere tropical zones (SHT, between 0° and 30°S) have a major influence over the predicted global trends in interannual variability of NEP. In contrast, the terrestrial NEP sink for atmospheric CO₂ on the North American (NA) continent has been fairly consistent between +0.2 and +0.3 Pg C per year, except during relatively cool annual periods when continental NEP fluxes are predicted to total to nearly zero. The predicted NEP sink for atmospheric CO₂ over Eurasia (EA) increased notably in the late 1980s and has been fairly consistent between +0.3 and +0.55 Pg C per year since 1988. High correlations can be detected between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and predicted NEP fluxes on the EA continent and for the SHT latitude zones, whereas NEP fluxes for the North American continent as a whole do not correlate strongly with ENSO events over the same time series since 1982. These observations support the hypothesis that regional climate warming has had notable but relatively small-scale impacts on high latitude ecosystem (tundra and boreal) sinks for atmospheric CO₂.     

Southern high latitude climate variability in the Late Cretaceous greenhouse world

A palynological study of oil exploration wells in the Gippsland Basin southeastern Australia has provided a record of southern high latitude climate variability for the last 12 million years of the Cretaceous greenhouse world. During this time, the vegetation was dominated by a cool to temperate flora of Podocarpaceae, Proteaceae and Nothofagidites spp. at a latitude of 60°S. Milankovitch forced cyclic alternations from drier to wetter climatic periods caused vegetation variability from 72 to 77 Ma. This climate change was probably related to the waxing and waning of ephemeral (100 ky) small ice sheets in Antarctica during times of insolation minima and maxima. Drying and cooling after 72 Ma culminated from 68 to 66 Ma, mirroring trends in global δ¹⁸O data. Quantitative palynofloral analyses have the potential to provide realistic proxies for small-scale climate variability in the predominantly ice-free Late Cretaceous.     

Seasonal temperature responses to land-use change in the western United States

In the western United States, more than 79 000 km² has been converted to irrigated agriculture and urban areas. These changes have the potential to alter surface temperature by modifying the energy budget at the land–atmosphere interface. This study reports the seasonally varying temperature responses of four regional climate models (RCMs) – RSM, RegCM3, MM5-CLM3, and DRCM – to conversion of potential natural vegetation to modern land-cover and land-use over a 1-year period. Three of the RCMs supplemented soil moisture, producing large decreases in the August mean (− 1.4 to − 3.1 °C) and maximum (− 2.9 to − 6.1 °C) 2-m air temperatures where natural vegetation was converted to irrigated agriculture. Conversion to irrigated agriculture also resulted in large increases in relative humidity (9% to 36% absolute change). Modeled changes in the August minimum 2-m air temperature were not as pronounced or consistent across the models. Converting natural vegetation to urban land-cover produced less pronounced temperature effects in all models, with the magnitude of the effect dependent upon the preexisting vegetation type and urban parameterizations. Overall, the RCM results indicate that the temperature impacts of land-use change are most pronounced during the summer months, when surface heating is strongest and differences in surface soil moisture between irrigated land and natural vegetation are largest.     

Modeling the interannual variability and trends in gross and net primary productivity of tropical forests from 1982 to 1999

The role of tropical ecosystems in global carbon cycling is uncertain, at least partially due to an incomplete understanding of climatic forcings of carbon fluxes. To reduce this uncertainty, we simulated and analyzed 1982–1999 Amazonian, African, and Asian carbon fluxes using the Biome-BGC prognostic carbon cycle model driven by National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis daily climate data. We first characterized the individual contribution of temperature, precipitation, radiation, and vapor pressure deficit to interannual variations in carbon fluxes and then calculated trends in gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP). In tropical ecosystems, variations in solar radiation and, to a lesser extent, temperature and precipitation, explained most interannual variation in GPP. On the other hand, temperature followed by solar radiation primarily determined variation in NPP. Tropical GPP gradually increased in response to increasing atmospheric CO₂. Confirming earlier studies, changes in solar radiation played a dominant role in CO₂ uptake over the Amazon relative to other tropical regions. Model results showed negligible impacts from variations and trends in precipitation or vapor pressure deficits on CO₂ uptake.     

The history of environmental change and adaptation in eastern Saloum–Senegal—Driving forces and perceptions

Environmental change in the Sahel–Sudan zone of West Africa has been a major issue in development debates over the last decades. Using remote sensing based land cover change analysis, archival data, national and international statistical data, and household interviews, we analyze the drivers of environmental change in Eastern Saloum in Central East Senegal as well as the local perceptions of these changes and adaptation. Being part of the ground nut basin, Eastern Saloum has witnessed rapid environmental degradation caused by the conversion of forest and savanna areas to agricultural land during the last 20–30 years and by a combination of decline in precipitation, soil degradation, a diversity of policies with little concern for the environment, fluctuating markets and population pressure. Farmers perceive the environmental change mainly as land degradation and poor soil fertility, though recent extensification of agriculture counters this effect and has led to increased vegetation cover in marginal areas. They identified erratic climate, agricultural policies, insufficient food production and desire to increase income as the main drivers of change in the area. We conclude that while climate variability has influenced environmental change in the area, various types of State interventions in agriculture and global market fluctuations appear to have been the main underlying causes of environmental degradation.     

Effects of a 2 × CO2 climate on two large lake systems: Pyramid Lake, Nevada, and Yellowstone Lake, Wyoming

The possible effects of trace-gas induced climatic changes on Pyramid and Yellowstone Lakes are assessed using a model of lake temperature. The model is driven by years of hourly meteorological data obtained directly from the output of double-CO₂ experiments (2 × CO₂) conducted with a regional climate model nested in a general circulation model. The regional atmospheric model is the climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model, MM4.Average annual surface temperature of Pyramid Lake for the 2 × CO₂ climate is 15.5 ± 5.4°C (±1 σ), 2.8°C higher than the control. Annual overturn of the lake ceases as a result of these higher temperatures for the 2 × CO₂ climate. Evaporation increases from 1400 mm yr⁻¹ in the control to 1595 mm yr⁻¹ in the 2 × CO₂ simulation, but net water supplied to the Pyramid Lake basin increases from −6 mm yr⁻¹ in the control to +27 mm yr⁻¹ in the 2 × CO₂ simulation due to increased precipitation.For the open water periods, the average annual surface temperature of Yellowstone Lake is 13.2 ± 5.1°C for the 2 × CO₂ climate, a temperature 1.6°C higher than the control. The annual duration of ice cover on the lake is 152 days in the 2 × CO₂ simulation, a reduction of 44 days relative to the control. Warming of the lake for the 2 × CO₂ climate is mostly confined to the near-surface. Simulated spring overturn for the 2 × CO₂ climate occurs earlier in the year and fall overturn later than in the control. Evaporation increases from 544 mm yr⁻¹ to 600 mm yr⁻¹ in the 2 × CO₂ simulation, but net water supplied to the Yellowstone Lake basin increases from +373 mm yr⁻¹ in the control to +619 mm yr⁻¹ due to increased precipitation. The effects of these climatic changes suggest possible deterioration of water quality and productivity in Pyramid Lake and possible enhancement of productivity in Yellowstone Lake.     

Mired in the past — looking to the future: Geochemistry of peat and the analysis of past environmental changes

Peat cores from ombrotrophic bogs have been used as a valuable archive to study environmental change for over a century. Much of this focus on the peat record has been on biological proxies of environmental change, such as pollen and peat-forming macrofossils, but there is growing interest in the geochemical record to study environmental changes. Several studies of long-term peat records in Europe have reconstructed past changes in atmospheric lead pollution, for example, and the general cohesiveness of the results and their agreement with known historical trends in metal production exemplify the best potential of peat geochemistry as an environmental archive. Based on the success with lead, a current emphasis in peat reconstructions is to assess the record of past mercury deposition and results thus far show generally consistent trends, e.g., a pre-anthropogenic mercury accumulation rate of about 0.5–1.5 μg Hg m^− 2 year^− 1. Despite this general consistency there is increasing concern that there may be diagenetic effects on the quantitative record of some metals, which can be inferred based on a strong relationship between mercury and other organically bound elements and proxies for peat decomposition (C/N ratio). However, it is possible that changes in decomposition and the alteration of some metal records could provide climatic information. A few recent studies show that closer examination of the geochemical matrix, in some cases along with biological proxies, can provide valuable information on landscape changes and climate; for example, partitioning metals into different weight fractions and source regions can be applied to climate studies. The best interpretations of the peat geochemical record in the context of environmental and climate change will likely come when geochemical and biological records are considered simultaneously.     

Variability in terrestrial carbon sinks over two decades: Part 2 — Eurasia

We have analyzed 17 yr (1982–1998) of net carbon flux predictions from a simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover. The NASA-CASA model was driven by vegetation cover properties derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and radiative transfer algorithms that were developed for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We report that although the terrestrial ecosystem sink for atmospheric CO₂ for the Eurasian region has been fairly consistent at between 0.3 and 0.6 Pg C per year since 1988, high interannual variability in net ecosystem production (NEP) fluxes can be readily identified at locations across the continent. Ten major areas of highest variability in NEP were detected: eastern Europe, the Iberian Peninsula, the Balkan states, Scandinavia, northern and western Russia, eastern Siberia, Mongolia and western China, and central India. Analysis of climate anomalies over this 17-yr time period suggests that variability in precipitation and surface solar irradiance could be associated with trends in carbon sink fluxes within such regions of high NEP variability.     

Secular glacier mass balances derived from cumulative glacier length changes

Glacier mass changes are considered to represent natural key variables with respect to strategies for early detection of enhanced greenhouse effects on climate. The main problem, however, with interpreting worldwide glacier mass balance evolution concerns the question of representativity. One important key to deal with such uncertainties and to assess the spatio-temporal representativity of the few available measurements is the long-term change in cumulative glacier length. The mean specific mass balance determined from glacier length change data since 1900 shows considerable regional variability but centers around a mean value of about −0.25 m year⁻¹ water equivalent.     

Aeolian dust experiment on climate impact: An overview of Japan–China joint project ADEC

The Aeolian Dust Experiment on Climate Impact (ADEC) was initiated in April 2000 as a joint five-year Japan–China project. The goal was to understand the impact of aeolian dust on climate via radiative forcing (RF). Field experiments and numerical simulations were conducted from the source regions in northwestern China to the downwind region in Japan in order to understand wind erosion processes temporal and spatial distribution of dust during their long-range transportation chemical, physical, and optical properties of dust and the direct effect of radiative forcing due to dust. For this, three intensive observation periods (IOP) were conducted from April 2002 to April 2004.The in situ and network observation results are summarized as follows: (1) In situ observations of the wind erosion process revealed that the vertical profile of moving sand has a clear size dependency with height and saltation flux and that threshold wind velocity is dependent on soil moisture. Results also demonstrated that saltation flux is strongly dependent on the parent soil size distribution of the desert surface. (2) Both lidar observations and model simulations revealed a multiple dust layer in East Asia. A numerical simulation of a chemical transport model, CFORS, illustrated the elevated dust layer from the Taklimakan Desert and the lower dust layer from the Gobi Desert. The global-scale dust model, MASINGAR, also simulated the dust layer in the middle to upper free troposphere in East Asia, which originated from North Africa and the Middle East during a dust storm in March 2003. Raman lidar observations at Tsukuba, Japan, found the ice cloud associated with the dust layer at an altitude of 6 to 9 km. Analysis from lidar and the radio-sonde observation suggested that the Asian dust acted as ice nuclei at the ice-saturated region. These results suggest the importance of dust's climate impact via the indirect effect of radiative forcing due to the activation of dust into ice nuclei. (3) Studies on the aerosol concentration indicated that size distributions of aerosols in downwind regions have bimodal peaks. One peak was in the submicron range and the other in the supermicron range. The main soluble components of the supermicron peak were Na⁺, Ca²⁺, NO₃⁻, and Cl⁻. In the downwind region in Japan, the dust, sea salt, and a mixture of the two were found to be dominant in coarse particles in the mixed boundary layer. (4) Observation of the optical properties of dust by sky-radiometer, particle shoot absorption photometer (PSAP), and Nephelometer indicated that unpolluted dust at source region has a weaker absorption than originally believed.A sensitivity experiment of direct RF by dust indicated that single scattering albedo is the most important of the optical properties of dust and that the sensitivity of instantaneous RF in the shortwave region at the top of the atmosphere to the refractive index strongly depends on surface albedo. A global scale dust model, MASINGAR, was used for evaluation of direct RF due to dust. The results indicated the global mean RF at the top and the bottom of the atmosphere were − 0.46 and − 2.13 W m^− 2 with cloud and were almost half of the RF with cloud-free condition.     

Climate variability and change in the drylands of Western North America

We argue that it is important to expand the consideration of climate in the context of provision of ecosystem services in drylands. In addition to climate change, it is necessary to include climate variability on timescales relevant to human and ecological considerations, namely interannual to decadal and multidecadal. The period of global instrumental record (about a century and a half long at the very most) is neither an adequate nor an unbiased sample of the range and character of natural climate variability that might be expected with the climate system configured as it is now. We base this on evidence from W. N. America, where there has recently been a major multi-year drought, of a scale and intensity that has occurred several times in the last 2000 years, and on attempts to provide explanations of these phenomena based on physical climatology. Ensembles of runs of forced climate system models suggest the next 50 years will bring much more extensive and intense drought in the continental interior of North America. The trajectory followed by the supply of ecosystem services will be contingent not only on the genotypes available and the antecedent soil, economic and social conditions but also on climate variability and change. The critical features of climate on which patterns of plant growth and water supply depend may vary sharply during and between human generations, resulting in very different experiences and hence, expectations.     

Modeling mineral dust emissions from Chinese and Mongolian deserts

The present study investigates the frequency and intensity of mineral dust emissions over the deserts of eastern Asia from 1996 to 2001. Mineral dust emissions are simulated using a physical dust emission scheme over a region extending from 35.5°N to 47°N and from 73°E to 125°E. The input parameters required by the dust emission model are (1) surface features data including aerodynamic roughness length, soil dry size distribution and texture; and (2) meteorological surface data, mainly wind speed, soil moisture and snow cover. The way by which these surface features and meteorological data can be assessed is described and discussed. The influence of soil moisture and snow cover is taken into account and their effects on simulated dust emission are quantified.The simulations reproduce on a daily basis the location and intensity of the severe events of April 1998 and spring 2001 as recorded by the meteorological stations and/or described in various studies. Based on 6 yr of simulations, the main dust source regions are identified and their relative contributions to the total dust emissions are quantified.The seasonal cycle of the dust storms frequency is well reproduced with a maximum in spring. The simulations suggest that it is mainly controlled by the emissions occurring in the Taklimakan desert in latter spring and in summer, and by those occurring in the northern deserts of China in winter. The Taklimakan desert appears to be the most frequent and steady source of dust emissions during the studied period. On the other hand, in the Gobi desert, only a few dust emission events are simulated, but the dust amount emitted during each event is generally very large. In the northern deserts of China, dust emissions are frequent and their intensity is variable.These results show an important annual and inter-annual variability of the emitted dust (between 100 Mt yr^− 1 and 460 Mt yr^− 1), mainly controlled by the occurrence of severe events in the Gobi desert and in the northern deserts of China.     

Climate sensitivity to changes in land surface characteristics

Using a recently developed global vegetation distribution, topography, and shorelines for the Early Eocene in conjunction with the Genesis version 2.0 climate model, we investigate the influences that these new boundary conditions have on global climate. Global mean climate changes little in response to the subtle changes we made; differences in mean annual and seasonal surface temperatures over northern and southern hemispheric land, respectively, are on the order of 0.5°C. In contrast, and perhaps more importantly, continental scale climate exhibits significant responses. Increased peak elevations and topographic detail result in larger amplitude planetary 4 mm/day and decreases by 7–9 mm/day in the proto Himalayan region. Surface temperatures change by up to 18°C as a direct result of elevation modifications. Increased leaf area index (LAI), as a result of altered vegetation distributions, reduces temperatures by up to 6°C. Decreasing the size of the Mississippi embayment decreases inland precipitation by 1–2 mm/day. These climate responses to increased accuracy in boundary conditions indicate that “improved” boundary conditions may play an important role in producing modeled paleoclimates that approach the proxy data more closely.     

Quasi-periodic climate teleconnections between northern and southern Europe during the 17th–20th centuries

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region, influencing storm tracks and creating a dipole pattern of precipitation from north to south across Western Europe. This distinct spatial distribution of precipitation provides a framework that can be potentially used to identify and reconstruct patterns of past NAO-forced climate variability. In this study we use tree-ring width series from Western Europe, in conjunction with principal components analysis and advanced spectral methods, to prospect for quasi-periodic climate signals that are forced by the NAO. We identify a robust 25-yr anti-phased synchronization in climate variability between Scandinavia and the Mediterranean during the 17th–20th centuries. The amplitude of the 25-yr beat displays a long-term modulation in northern and southern Europe, with minimum amplitude during the late Maunder Minimum. This amplitude minimum coincides with a maximum in Δ¹⁴C, suggesting a potential solar or oceanic influence on the intensity of the 25-yr band of quasi-periodic variability.