Observations and modeling of the ice-ocean conditions in the coastal Chukchi and Beaufort Seas

The Chukchi and Beaufort Seas include several important hydrological features： inflow of the Pacific water, Alaska coast current （ ACC ）, the seasonal to perennial sea ice cover, and landfast ice ＇along the Alaskan coast. The dynamics of this coupled ice-ocean system is important for both regional scale oceanography and large-scale global climate change research. A mumber of moorings were deployed in the area by JAMSTEC since 1992, and the data revealed highly variable characteristics of the hydrological environment. A regional high-resolution coupled ice-ocean model of the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas was established to simulate the ice-ocean environment and unique seasonal landfast ice in the coastal Beaufort Sea. The model results reproduced the Beaufort gyre and the ACC. The depthaveraged annual mean ocean currents along the Beaufort Sea coast and shelf hreak compared well with data from four moored ADCPs, but the simulated velocity had smaller standard deviations, which indicate small-scale eddies were frequent in the region. The model resuits captured the sea,real variations of sea ice area as compared with remote sensing data, and the simulated sea ice velocity showed an ahnost stationary area along the Beaufort Sea coast that was similar to the observed landfast ice extent. It is the combined effects of the weak oceanic current near the coast, a prevailing wind with an onshore component, the opposite direction of the ocean current, and the blocking hy the coastline that make the Beaufort Sea coastal areas prone to the formation of landfast ice.     

Severe winter weather as a response to the lowest Arctic sea-ice anomalies

Possible impact of reduced Arctic sea-ice on winter severe weather in China is investigated regarding the snowstorm over southern China in January 2008. The sea-ice conditions in the summer （July-September） and fall （September-November） of 2007 show that the sea-ice is the lowest that year. During the summer and fall of 2007, sea ice displayed a significant decrease in the East Siberian, the northern Chukchi Sea, the western Beaufort Sea, the Barents Sea, and the Kara Sea. A ECHAM5.4 atmospheric general circula- tion model is forced with realistic sea-ice conditions and strong thermal responses with warmer surface air temperature and higher-than-normal heat flux associated with the sea-ice anomalies are found. The model shows remote atmospheric responses over East Asia in January 2008, which result in severe snowstorm over southern China. Strong water-vapor transported from the Bay of Bengal and from the Pacific Ocean related to Arctic sea-ice anomalies in the fall （instead of summer） of 2007 is considered as one of the main causes of the snowstorm formation.     

2007和2012年北极最小海冰范围空间分布不同的原因分析

Satellite records show the minimum Arctic sea ice extents(SIEs) were observed in the Septembers of 2007 and2012, but the spatial distributions of sea ice concentration reduction in these two years were quite different.Atmospheric circulation pattern and the upper-ocean state in summer were investigated to explain the difference.By employing the ice-temperature and ice-specific humidity(SH) positive feedbacks in the Arctic Ocean, this paper shows that in 2007 and 2012 the higher surface air temperature(SAT) and sea level pressure(SLP)accompanied by more surface SH and higher sea surface temperature(SST), as a consequence, the strengthened poleward wind was favorable for melting summer Arctic sea ice in different regions in these two years. SAT was the dominant factor influencing the distribution of Arctic sea ice melting. The correlation coefficient is –0.84 between SAT anomalies in summer and the Arctic SIE anomalies in autumn. The increase SAT in different regions in the summers of 2007 and 2012 corresponded to a quicker melting of sea ice in the Arctic. The SLP and related wind were promoting factors connected with SAT. Strengthening poleward winds brought warm moist air to the Arctic and accelerated the melting of sea ice in different regions in the summers of 2007 and 2012. Associated with the rising air temperature, the higher surface SH and SST also played a positive role in reducing summer Arctic sea ice in different regions in these two years, which form two positive feedbacks mechanism.     

北极各海域海冰覆盖范围的变化特征

Sea ice in the Arctic has been reducing rapidly in the past half century due to global warming.This study analyzes the variations of sea ice extent in the entire Arctic Ocean and its sub regions.The results indicate that sea ice extent reduction during 1979–2013 is most significant in summer,following by that in autumn,winter and spring.In years with rich sea ice,sea ice extent anomaly with seasonal cycle removed changes with a period of 4–6 years.The year of 2003–2006 is the ice-rich period with diverse regional difference in this century.In years with poor sea ice,sea ice margin retreats further north in the Arctic.Sea ice in the Fram Strait changes in an opposite way to that in the entire Arctic.Sea ice coverage index in melting-freezing period is an critical indicator for sea ice changes,which shows an coincident change in the Arctic and sub regions.Since 2002,Region C2 in north of the Pacific sector contributes most to sea ice changes in the central Aarctic,followed by C1 and C3.Sea ice changes in different regions show three relationships.The correlation coefficient between sea ice coverage index of the Chukchi Sea and that of the East Siberian Sea is high,suggesting good consistency of ice variation.In the Atlantic sector,sea ice changes are coincided with each other between the Kara Sea and the Barents Sea as a result of warm inflow into the Kara Sea from the Barents Sea.Sea ice changes in the central Arctic are affected by surrounding seas.     

Rapid decrease in Antarctic sea ice in recent years

A 41-year Antarctic sea ice concentration(SIC) dataset derived from satellite passive microwave radiometers during the period of 1979–2019 has been used to analyze sea ice changes in recent decades. The trends of SIC and sea ice extent(SIE) are calculated during the periods of 1979–2019, 1979–2013, and 2014–2019. The trends show regionally dependent features. The SIC shows an increasing trend in most of the regions except the Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea(BA) during 1979–2019 and 1979–2013. The SIE trend shows a decreasing or decelerating trend in the period of 1979–2019((6 835±2 210) km2/a) compared with the 1979–2013 period((18 600±2 203) km~2/a). In recent years(2014–2019), the SIC and SIE have exhibited decreasing trends(–(34 567±3 521) km~2/month), especially in the Weddell Sea(WS) and Ross Sea(RS) during summer and autumn. The trends are related to regionally dependent causes. The analyses show that the SIC and SIE decreased in response to the warming trend of 2 m air temperature(T_(a-2m)) and have exhibited a good relationship with T_(a-2m) in summer and autumn in recent years. The sea ice decrease in the Antarctic is mainly caused by increases in absorbed energy and southward energy transportation in recent years, such as the increase in gained solar radiation and moist static energy from the south, which demonstrate notable regional characteristics. In the WS region, the local positive feedback from the additional absorbed solar radiation, resulting in warmer air and reduced sea ice, is the main reason for the sea ice decrease in recent years. The increase in southward energy transport has also favored a decrease in sea ice. In the RS region, the increase in southward-transported moist static energy has contributed to the decrease in sea ice, and the increases in cloud cover and longwave radiation have prevented sea ice growth.     

OSTIA数据在中国近海业务化环流模型中的同化应用

The prediction of sea surface temperature(SST) is an essential task for an operational ocean circulation model. A sea surface heat flux, an initial temperature field, and boundary conditions directly affect the accuracy of a SST simulation. Here two quick and convenient data assimilation methods are employed to improve the SST simulation in the domain of the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea(BYECS). One is based on a surface net heat flux correction, named as Qcorrection(QC), which nudges the flux correction to the model equation; the other is ensemble optimal interpolation(En OI), which optimizes the model initial field. Based on such two methods, the SST data obtained from the operational SST and sea ice analysis(OSTIA) system are assimilated into an operational circulation model for the coastal seas of China. The results of the simulated SST based on four experiments, in 2011, have been analyzed. By comparing with the OSTIA SST, the domain averaged root mean square error(RMSE) of the four experiments is 1.74, 1.16, 1.30 and 0.91°C, respectively; the improvements of assimilation experiments Exps 2, 3 and 4 are about 33.3%, 25.3%, and 47.7%, respectively.Although both two methods are effective in assimilating the SST, the En OI shows more advantages than the QC,and the best result is achieved when the two methods are combined. Comparing with the observational data from coastal buoy stations, show that assimilating the high-resolution satellite SST products can effectively improve the SST prediction skill in coastal regions.     

基于高光谱遥感的渤海海冰厚度半经验模型

Sea ice thickness is one of the most important input parameters for the prevention and mitigation of sea ice disasters and the prediction of local sea environments and climates. Estimating the sea ice thickness is currently the most important issue in the study of sea ice remote sensing. With the Bohai Sea as the study area, a semiempirical model of the sea ice thickness(SEMSIT) that can be used to estimate the thickness of first-year ice based on existing water depth estimation models and hyperspectral remote sensing data according to an optical radiative transfer process in sea ice is proposed. In the model, the absorption and scattering properties of sea ice in different bands(spectral dimension information) are utilized. An integrated attenuation coefficient at the pixel level is estimated using the height of the reflectance peak at 1 088 nm. In addition, the surface reflectance of sea ice at the pixel level is estimated using the 1 550–1 750 nm band reflectance. The model is used to estimate the sea ice thickness with Hyperion images. The first validation results suggest that the proposed model and parameterization scheme can effectively reduce the estimation error associated with the sea ice thickness that is caused by temporal and spatial heterogeneities in the integrated attenuation coefficient and sea ice surface. A practical semi-empirical model and parameterization scheme that may be feasible for the sea ice thickness estimation using hyperspectral remote sensing data are potentially provided.     

The estimate of sea ice resources quantity in the Bohai Sea based on NOAA/AVHRR data

The research on sea ice resources is the academic base of sea ice exploitation in the Bohai Sea. According to the ice-water spectrum differences and the correlation between ice thickness and albedo, this paper comes up with a sea ice thickness inversion model based on the NOAA/AVHRR data. And then a sea ice resources quantity (SIQ) time series of Bohai Sea is established from 1987 to 2009. The results indicate that the average error of inversion sea ice thickness is below 30%. The maximum sea ice resources quantity is about 6 × 10 9 m 3 and the minimum is 1.3 × 10 9 m 3 . And a preliminary analysis has been made on the errors of the estimate of sea ice resources quantity (SIQ).     

Numerical simulation of influence of the anomalies of the Central-eastern Equatorial Pacific SST and Arctic seaice cover in summer on the atmospheric circulation

A series of numerical experiments have been conducted with a perpetual July, nine-level general circulation spectral model to determine the effect of variation of the Arctic sea ice cover extent and the joint effect of anomalies of both the Arctic sea ice cover and the Central-eastern Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature on the summer general circulation. Results show that the two factors,anomalously large extent of the Arctic sea ice cover and anomalously warm sea surface temperature over the Central-eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean, play substantially the equal role in the effect on the summer general circulation, and either of them can notably induce the atmospheric anomalies. The main dynamical processes determining the effect of the Arctic sea ice and the equatorial SST anomalies are associated with two leading teleconnection patterns, i. e. the Asia North/American and Eurasian patterns observed in atmosphere. The results presented in this paper again prove that the general circulation is fun     

A viscoelastic-plastic constitutive model with Mohr-Coulomb yielding criterion for sea ice dynamics

A new viscoelastic-plastic （VEP） constitutive model for sea ice dynamics was developed based on continuum mechanics. This model consists of four components： Kelvin-Vogit viscoelastic model, Mohr-Coulomb yielding criterion, associated normality flow rule for plastic rehololgy, and hydrostatic pressure. The numerical simulations for ice motion in an idealized rectangular basin were made using smoothed particle hydrodynamics （SPH） method, and compared with the analytical solution as well as those based on the modified viscous plastic（VP） model and static ice jam theory. These simulations show that the new VEP model can simulate ice dynamics accurately. The new constitutive model was further applied to simulate ice dynamics of the Bohai Sea and compared with the traditional VP, and modified VP models. The results of the VEP model are compared better with the satellite remote images, and the simulated ice conditions in the JZ20-2 oil platform area were more reasonable.     

1982—2001年与2002—2021年北极秋季海冰的时空变化及原因

基于北极海冰密集度、海冰范围、大气环流和海温数据,研究了1982—2001年与2002—2021年两阶段各20 a间北极秋季海冰的时空变化特征及其原因。结果表明,近20 a（2002—2021年）北极海冰密集度的下降中心由过去（1982—2001年）的楚科奇海及白令海峡一带,转移至亚欧大陆海岸的巴伦支海附近,且海冰范围每10 a减少量由0.44×10⁶ km²增长至0.72×10⁶ km²,减少速度加快约64%。秋季北极海冰范围与海水表面温度（Sea Surface Temperature,SST）、表面气温（Surface Air Temperature,SAT）及比湿（Specific Humidity）均呈显著负相关。2002—2021年的相关系数较1982—2001年有所提高,且与温度相关系数最高的月份提前了一个月。通过对海水表面温度、表面气温、比湿、气压场和风场的经验正交分解（Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF）可知,1982—2001年间,北极地区的温度及比湿的上升中心集中在楚科奇海及白令海峡一带;2002—2021年间,上升中心则转移至巴伦支海一带。气压场和风场在前后两阶段也出现了中心转移的分布变化。北极地区大气与海洋环流各因素的协同变化影响着北极海冰的消融。     

热带太平洋海温异常对北极海冰的可能影响

本文利用1950-2015年间Hadley环流中心海冰和海温资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了热带太平洋海温异常对北极海冰的可能影响,并从大气环流和净表面热通量两个角度探讨了可能的物理机制。结果表明,在ENSO事件发展年的夏、秋季节,EP型与CP型El Niño事件与北极海冰异常的联系无明显信号。而La Niña事件期间北极海冰出现显著异常,并且EP型与CP型La Niña之间存在明显差异。EP型La Niña发生时,北极地区巴伦支海、喀拉海关键区海冰异常减少,CP型La Niña事件则对应着东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海地区海冰异常增加。在EP型La Niña发展年的夏、秋季节,热带太平洋海温异常通过遥相关波列,使得巴伦支海、喀拉海海平面气压为负异常并与中纬度气压正异常共同构成类似AO正位相的结构,形成的风场异常有利于北大西洋暖水的输入,同时造成暖平流,偏高的水汽含量进一步加强了净表面热通量收入,使得巴伦支海、喀拉海海冰异常减少。而在CP型La Niña发展年的夏季,东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海关键区受其东侧气旋式环流的影响,以异常北风分量占主导,将海冰从极点附近由北向南输送到关键区,海冰异常增加,而净表面热通量的作用较小。     

2013年北极最小海冰范围比2012年增加的原因分析

北极海冰范围从1979年有卫星观测资料以来呈现明显下降趋势,尤其是9月份。2012年9月北极海冰范围达到有观测记录以来的最小值,而2013年9月比2012年同期增加了60%。增加的区域主要在东西伯利亚海区、楚科奇海和波弗特海区。本文应用距平和经验模态分解方法,分析了美国国家冰雪数据中心的北极海冰卫星数据、欧洲预报中心的夏季底层大气环流数据和上层海洋的温度,指出2013年北极最小海冰范围比2012年在北冰洋太平洋扇区增加的原因,是由于表面气温(SAT)降低、海平面气压(SLP)升高、气旋式风场异常、表面空气中水汽含量(SH)降低以及海表面温度(SST)降低5个条件形成的冰-SAT、冰-SST和冰-汽(SH)3个正反馈机制共同作用造成的。     

渤海冬季海冰反照率变化

渤海海冰对于大尺度气候变化比较敏感,基于CLARA-A1-SAL数据分析了1992~2008年冬季（12、1、2月）渤海海冰区域反照率的时空变化,同时分析了海冰密集度、海冰外延线面积和海水表面温度的变化与海冰反照率的相互关系。渤海海冰区域反照率随时间波动变化且变化趋势不明显,趋势线斜率仅为0.0388%。年际变化在9.93%~14.5%之间,平均值为11.79%。海冰反照率在1999,2000和2005等重冰年的值明显高于其他年份,在1994,1998,2001和2006等轻冰年的值较低。从单个月份反照率来看,12月海冰反照率的增加趋势（趋势线斜率0.0988%）明显高于1月和2月,1月的海冰反照率平均值（12.9%）高于另外两个月份。海冰反照率和海冰密集度呈明显的正相关关系;和海表面温度呈负相关关系（显著性水平90%）。     

Characteristics of Winter Surface Air Temperature Anomalies in Moscow in 1970–2016 under Conditions of Reduced Sea Ice Area in the Barents Sea

On the basis of observational data on daily mean surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents Sea (BS), the characteristics of strong positive and negative winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been studied in comparison with BS SIC data obtained in 1949–2016. An analysis of surface backward trajectories of air-particle motions has revealed the most probable paths of both cold and warm air invasions into Moscow and located regions that mostly affect strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow. Atmospheric circulation anomalies that cause strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been revealed. Changes in the ways of both cold and warm air invasions have been found, as well as an increase in the frequency of blocking anticyclones in 2005–2016 when compared to 1970–1999. The results suggest that a winter SIC decrease in the BS in 2005–2016 affects strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow due to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of blocking anticyclones to the south of and over the BS.     

2007-2018年黄渤海海冰气候特征及其对气象因子的响应

基于美国国家冰雪数据中心 （NSIDC） 海冰资料、美国国家环境预报中心 （NCEP） 再分析格点数据和黄渤海近岸13个气象站点逐日气温数据，通过相关分析和合成分析，研究了 2007-2018 年黄渤海海冰范围的变化特征，探讨了近 12 年黄渤海海冰范围对近岸陆地气温、大气环流和局地天气过程的响应。结果表明: （1） 黄渤海海冰范围年际振荡明显，近 12 年呈现先增加后减小的趋势，与同期黄渤海近岸气温呈显著负相关关系；每年 1 月下旬至 2 月下旬是一年中海冰范围最大的时期。（2） 海冰范围偏大与偏小年份东亚地区 500 hPa 大气环流形势呈现出近乎相反的分布。 （3） 东亚阻塞形势的建立是黄渤海海冰范围爆发性增大的一个前兆信号，它带来的大风降温天气是造成黄渤海海冰范围爆发性增大的重要原因.     

Role of sea ice in formation of wintertime arctic temperature anomalies

Numerical experiments with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using the empirical HadISST1.1 data on sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) in the 20th century as boundary conditions are analyzed. The experiments show that the model correctly reproduces the wintertime Arctic warming in the last 30 years of the 20th century but is unable to reproduce mid-20th century warming. Because the wintertime Arctic surface air temperature changes are closely related to SIC anomalies, it is assumed that one reason for this discrepancy is the lack of a negative SIC anomaly in the prescribed boundary conditions during a mid-20th century warm period. It is also shown that the model with-out prescribed ice cover changes does not reproduce a temperature trend in the Arctic in recent 30 years of the 20th century. The experimental results indicate that the mid-20th century warming was accompanied by a significant negative anomaly of the wintertime Arctic sea ice extent comparable to current trends and also point to a considerable contribution of natural variability to modern climate changes.     

Temporal and spatial variabilities of Japan Sea surface temperature and atmospheric forcings

In this study, we used the National Centers for Environmental Prediction monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and surface air temperature (SAT) data during 1982–1994 and the National Center for Atmospheric Research surface wind stress curl data during 1982–1989 to investigate the Japan Sea SST temporal and spatial variabilities and their relations to atmospheric forcing. First, we found an asymmetry in the correlation coefficients between SST and wind stress curl, which implies that the SST variability at the scales of the order of one month is largely due to atmospheric forcing. Second, we performed three analyses on the data fields: annual mean, composite analysis to obtain the monthly anomaly relative to the annual mean, and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on the residue data relative to the summation of the annual mean and the monthly anomaly. The first EOF mode of SST accounts for 59.9% of the variance and represents the Subpolar Front. The temporal variation of the first EOF mode implies that the deep Japan Sea could be cooler in cold seasons (November–April) of 1984–1987. Third, we computed cross-correlation coefficients among various principal components and found that the atmospheric warming/cooling is the key factor causing intra-seasonal and interannual SST variabilities.