Identification of regional pattern of climate change risk in China under different global warming targets

Climate change will bring huge risks to human society and the economy. Regional climate change risk assessment is an important basic analysis for addressing climate change, which can be expressed as a regional system of comprehensive climate change risk. This study establishes regional systems of climate change risks under the proposed global warming targets. Results of this work are spatial patterns of climate change risks in China, indicated by the degree of climate change and the status of th...     

Perceptions of climate change in China: The research and policy connection

Global climate change has evolved from a scientific problem into an economic and political problem oI worlOwloe rater- est. National perspectives play a crucial role in addressing climate change. Mutual understanding of perspectives is nec- essary to result in rational policies and a consensus among stakeholders with divergent interests. Conceptual frameworks for understanding the problem of climate change in China, the largest developing country and the largest greenhouse gas emitter, are of great significance to national and international efforts to address the problems of climate change. Chinese perceptions of climate change as a sustainable development problem have recently been in tension with an emerging Western perspective that frames climate change as a security issue. This paper explores Chinese perceptions of climate change as expressed in recent governmental policy statements, public opinion surveys, and academic scholarship with a focus on publications in Chinese-language journals, often unfamiliar in the West. It looks at the relationship between Chinese research and policy and finds that the Chinese policy frame of climate change as a sustainable development problem draws from the body of domestic research and is reflective of the perspectives and multidisciplinary approach of Chinese researchers in areas of climate change.     

黄河废弃三角洲叶瓣海岸侵蚀与岸线演化

A statistic analysis predicting coastal change of the Yellow River abandoned delta lobe formed from 1964 to 1976 using Landsat TM imagery was conducted by calculating the coastal erosion/accumulation rates obtained flom four different classic profiles and plotting the change curves of coastline with time. The studies showed that the regularity of the evolution of the coastline was very obvious after the delta lobe was abandoned. The coastal evolution can be divided into three different phases: erosion phase, transition phase and cyclical change phase. At present, the coast has evolved to the cyclical change phase. The natural coastline change cycle is 4 years between the dam and is 5 years to the west of the dam. In the cyclical change phase, the quasi-equilibrium line of the coast was located near the coastline of 1996, the current coast may recede 1.79 km to reach the natural equilibrium coastline. Therefore, some measures must be taken to protect the dam or the dam will be destroyed by the force of nature. The curves also revealed the magnitude of erosion/accumulation rates would decrease gradually with time. The results of the study offer guidance for coast protection, and proves that the evolution of silty coast actually was a cyclical change process too.     

Economic development and energy efficiency in Jilin Province,China

The relationship between economic development and energy consumption is revealed by employing cointegration theory, the index decomposition method, and a log-linear regression approach based on a case study of Jilin Province, China. The results suggest： 1） the economic development and energy consumption are interdetermined, whose relationship is positive and long-term. The economic development is highly depending on the energy in Jilin Province. 2） Under the condition of other unchanged factors, the change of industrial energy efficiency contributes to the energy saving, while that of industrial structure increases the energy consumption. 3） The industrial structure change enhances the energy intensity, but the energy utility efficiency change lowers it. From the view of contribution to the energy consumption, the contribution of industrial structure was more than that of the energy utility efficiency in 2000-2011. 4） In 2000-2011, the comprehensive energy intensity change and hydroelectricity energy intensity change were related to all industrial structures＇ change, and the influencing factors about structure of oil energy intensity change were more than those of coal energy intensity change; from the impact degree, agricultural proportion decreased exerted an positive and greater effect on lowering the energy intensity of comprehensive energy and hydroelectricity, and industrial one did on coal and natural gas. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows： the major way to promote the coordinated development of the industrial economy and energy consumption is to optimize the industrial structure by increasing the proportion of the tertiary industry and low energy consumption industrial sectors and to enhance the energy utility efficiency.     

历史及未来气候变化下中国潜在植被NPP的脆弱性研究（英文）

Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity(NPP) dynamics of China's potential vegetation in the past 55 years(1961–2015) and in the future 35 years(2016–2050). Then, taking the NPP of the potential vegetation in average climate conditions during 1986–2005 as the basis for evaluation, this study examined whether the potential vegetation adapts to climate change or not. Meanwhile, the degree of inadaptability was evaluated. Finally, the NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation was evaluated by synthesizing the frequency and degrees of inadaptability to climate change. In the past 55 years, the NPP of desert ecosystems in the south of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the north of China and in western Tibetan Plateau was prone to the effect of climate change. The NPP of most forest ecosystems was not prone to the influence of climate change. The low NPP vulnerability to climate change of the evergreen broad-leaved and coniferous forests was observed. Furthermore, the NPP of the desert ecosystems in the north of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau also had low vulnerability to climate change. In the next 35 years, the NPP vulnerability to climate change would reduce the forest–steppe in the Songliao Plain, the deciduous broad-leaved forests in the warm temperate zone, and the alpine steppe in the central and western Tibetan Plateau. The NPP vulnerability would significantly increase of the temperate desert in the Junggar Basin and the alpine desert in the Kunlun Mountains. The NPP vulnerability of the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests would also increase. The area of the regions with increased vulnerability would account for 27.5% of China.     

21世纪初中国土地利用变化的空间格局与驱动力

Land use and land cover change as the core of coupled human-environment systems has become a potential field of land change science (LCS) in the study of global environmental change. Based on remotely sensed data of land use change with a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km on national scale among every 5 years, this paper designed a new dynamic regionalization according to the comprehensive characteristics of land use change including regional differentiation, physical, economic, and macro-policy factors as well. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving forces were investigated in China in the early 21st century. To sum up, land use change pattern of this period was characterized by rapid changes in the whole country. Over the agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the southeast coastal areas and Sichuan Basin, a great proportion of fine arable land were engrossed owing to considerable expansion of the built-up and residential areas, resulting in decrease of paddy land area in southern China. The development of oasis agriculture in Northwest China and the reclamation in Northeast China led to a slight increase in arable land area in northern China. Due to the "Grain for Green" policy, forest area was significantly increased in the middle and western developing regions, where the vegetation coverage was substantially enlarged, likewise. This paper argued the main driving forces as the implementation of the strategy on land use and regional development, such as policies of "Western Development", "Revitalization of Northeast", coupled with rapidly economic development during this period.     

皇甫川流域降水量和人类活动对径流量变化影响的定量评估(英文)

The runoff of some rivers in the world especially in the arid and semi-arid areas has decreased remarkably with global or regional climate change and enhanced human activities.The runoff decrease in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China has brought severe problems in livelihoods and ecology.To reveal the variation characteristics,trends of runoff and their influencing factors have been important scientific issues for drainage basin management.The objective of this study was to analyze the variation trends of the runoff and quantitatively assess the contributions of precipitation and human activities to the runoff change in the Huangfuchuan River Basin based on the measured data in 1960-2008.Two inflection points(turning years) of 1979 and 1998 for the accumulative runoff change,and one inflection point of 1979 for the accumulative precipitation change were identified using the methods of accumulative anomaly analysis.The linear relationships between year and accumulative runoff in 1960-1979,1980-1997 and 1998-2008 and between year and accumulative precipitation in 1960-1979 and 1980-2008 were fitted.A new method of slope change ratio of accumulative quantity(SCRAQ) was put forward and used in this study to calculate the contributions of different factors to the runoff change.Taking 1960-1979 as the base period,the contribution rate of the precipitation and human activities to the decreased runoff was 36.43% and 63.57% in 1980-1997,and 16.81% and 83.19% in 1998-2008,respectively.The results will play an important role in the drainage basin management.Moreover,the new method of SCRAQ can be applied in the quantitative evaluation of runoff change and impacts by different factors in the river basin of arid and semi-arid areas.     

基于空间分析与实证的中国农业土地边际收益与全要素生产率研究(英文)

This paper attempts to explore the temporal and spatial nature of the marginal revenue of land, total factor productivity (TFP) change and its three components: technical change (TC), technical efficiency change (TEC) and scale efficiency change (SEC) as seen in Chinese agricultural production from 1995 to 1999. Based on county-level data, the study utilized both stochastic frontier and mapping analyses methods. The results show that growth in the marginal revenue of land was diverse across various regions, where most gain occurred in eastern coastal zone, while loss was in Northwest and North China. China has experienced moderate decreases in annual TFP change (-0.26%) with considerable regional variations. Specifically, the administrative intervention in grain production and the deterioration of the agricultural technology diffusion system led to a moderate drop in annual TFP change. County-level mapping analyses took into account interregional variances in TFP and its components. Regarding components of TFP, TEC differences explain the majority of regional dispersions in TFP. As developed areas in China, the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan economic zone face the challenges of land conversion and grain security amidst the process of urbanization.     

Impacts of climate change and LULC change on runoff in the Jinsha River Basin

The climate change and Land Use/Land Cover(LULC) change both have an important impact on the rainfall-runoff processes. How to quantitatively distinguish and predict the impacts of the above two factors has been a hot spot and frontier issue in the field of hydrology and water resources. In this research, the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was established for the Jinsha River Basin, and the method of scenarios simulation was used to study the runoff response to climate change and LULC change. Furthermore, the climate variables exported from 7 typical General Circulation Models(GCMs) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were bias corrected and input into the SWAT model to predict runoff in 2017–2050. Results showed that:(1) During the past 57 years, the annual average precipitation and temperature in the Jinsha River Basin both increased significantly while the rising trend of runoff was far from obvious.(2) Compared with the significant increase of temperature in the Jinsha River Basin, the LULC change was very small.(3) During the historical period, the LULC change had little effect on the hydrological processes in the basin, and climate change was one of the main factors affecting runoff.(4) In the context of global climate change, the precipitation, temperature and runoff in the Jinsha River Basin will rise in 2017–2050 compared with the historical period. This study provides significant references to the planning and management of large-scale hydroelectric bases at the source of the Yangtze River.     

250 years of accumulation, oxygen isotope and chemical records in a firn core from Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica

A 51.85-m firn core collected from site DT001 (accumulation rate 127 kgm-2a-1, mean annual temperature -33.1 oC) on Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica, during the 1996-97 Chinese First Antarctic Inland Expedition has been analyzed for chemical composition and oxygen isotope ratio. A comparison between the seasonal variations of major ions was carried out in order to reduce the dating uncertainty, using the volcanic markers as time constrains. A deposition period of 251 years was determined. The calculated accumulation rates display an increasing trend before 1820, while after 1820, the trend of the accumulation is not obvious. Overall, temperature change in the region shows a slight increasing trend over the past 250 years. But, notably, a temperature decline of -2 oC is observed from 1860 to the present. This feature, at odds with the warming trend over the past century recorded in both hemispheres, likely reflects a regional characteristic related to the lack of a high latitude/low latitude link in the Southern Hemisphere circulation patterns. The results of the glaciochemical records of the firn core show that the mean concentrations of Cl-, Na+ and Mg2+ are similar to those reported from other sites in East Antarctica. However, the mean concentration of Ca2+ is much higher than that reported from other regions, suggesting the influence of the strong local terrestrial sources in Princess Elizabeth Land. There is no evidence of a positive correlation between NO3- concentrations and solar activity (11-year solar cycle and solar cycle length), although solar proton events may account for some of the NO3- peak values in the record.     

The concentration variation features of sea salt ions and non sea salt ions in a firn core recovered from Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica

A 51.85 m firn core drilled in Princess Elizabeth Land, Antarctica, during the 1996-1997 Chinese First Antarctic Inland Expedition, has been measured for δ 18 O and major ions. Based on the high quality data of the seasonal variations of major ions, the firn core was dated with errors within ±3 years. The 51.85 m firn core record extends for 251 years (A. D. 1745-1996). The results of the glaciochemistry data of the firn core show that the mean concentrations of Cl -, Na + and Mg 2+ are similar to those reported from other coastal areas in East Antarctica. However, mean concentrations of Ca 2+ are much higher than those reported from other regions, this anomaly phenomenon may be related to the strong local terrestrial sources. It is found that the variations of three kinds of sea salt ions (Cl -, Na + and Mg 2+ ) in the past 150 years show very similarly rising trends, which may be the results the Southern Hemisphere warming in the past century.     

南极伊利莎白公主地250年来海、陆盐离子浓度特征

中国首次南极内陆冰盖考察获得的50m冰芯的雪冰化学资料研究表明:南极伊利莎白公主地海盐离子浓度季节变化特征明显,为冰芯定年提供了可靠的依据。伊利莎白公主地雪冰中Cl^-、Na⁺和Mg²⁺等海盐离子浓度与南极冰盖其它地方相当,而Ca²⁺含量异常的高,可能与局地较强的陆地源有关。近150年来,伊利莎白公主地海盐离子浓度具有明显升高的趋势,可能是整个南半球100多年来升温的结果。     

The study on the depositional styles of major ions and the climatic effect of nssSO_4~(2-)in Princess Elizabeth Land, Antarctica

Snow samples collected from a 50 m firn core and two snow pits along the route of the 1996/1997 Chinese First Antarctic Inland Traverse Expedition in Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica, have been analyzed for chemical composition and oxygen isotope ratio. Analyzing the relationship between the concentration and flux of major ions and accumulation rate can draw the following conclusions. 1) The concentrations of major ions in the atmosphere in the study region is big enough so that the concentrations of the ions do not vary with snow accumulation rate, that is to say, the concentrations of major chemical species are independent of snow accumulation rate. 2) The results of analyzing the depositional styles of major chemical species suggest that wet deposition dominates the major ions flux. In addition, there is no apparent correlation between nssSO 2- 4 fluctuations and isotope profile. This would indicate the short-term climatic effect of volcanism is not evident in the region.     

南极洲伊丽莎白公主地区主要离子沉积方式及nssSO_4~(2-)气候效应研究

通过对１９９６／１９９７年中国首次南极内陆冰盖考察获得的南极洲伊丽莎白公主地区５０ｍ 雪芯样品主要阴、阳离子浓度、通量和积累率关系的研究,揭示以下规律：１）南极洲伊丽莎白公主地区大气中各主要离子浓度足够大,足以使本地区冰雪中主要离子浓度不随积累率的变化而变化,即离子浓度不受积累率的影响。２）各主要离子干、湿沉积所占比重的计算结果表明,本地区离子沉积方式以湿沉积为主。另外,ｎｓｓＳＯ２－４ 的研究结果表明火山爆发的中、短期气候效应在伊丽莎白公主地区反应不明显。     

南极洲伊利莎白公主地区气候特征分析

通过对1996/1997年中国首次南极内陆冰盖考察地区——南极洲伊利莎白公主地区近300 km断面上70余个雪坑的δ¹⁸O和积累率资料的分析,首次揭示了本地区气候变化特征。即无论是气温还是降水都从沿海向内陆递减,但两者的变化又有差异,具体表现在气温从沿海向内陆持续递减,降水先递增后递减,表现出很强的地段性。同时探讨了二者变化的影响因素和影响机制。     

南极沿海伯尔顿盐湖双刺镰状水蚤种群生态及其与盐湖环境的关系

对南极沿海伯尔顿盐湖浮游桡足类双刺镰状水蚤(Drepanopus bispinosus)种群生态进行了全年连续观察和研究,结果表明,该水蚤为一年一代,其个体发育周期,雄性约为10～12个月,雌性约为12～18个月。种群密度随季节不同而差异较大,其成体高密度期约在6～9月份,幼体高密度期大约在11～12月份,主要为无节幼体,桡足幼体Ⅰ期的高密度期出现在1月份。该水蚤繁殖期大约从6月至翌年1月,期间出现两次生殖高峰,7～8月为前一高峰期,所出现的无节幼体受环境因子主要是湖中食物和含氧量不足的影响而不能继续发育至桡足幼体Ⅰ期以上的阶段,后一高峰大约在10～12月,所出期的无节幼体能继续发育至桡足幼体各期直至成体。伯尔顿湖双刺镰状水蚤种群生态特征及其出现两次生殖高峰的现象,可能与该湖环境的季节变化有关。     

南极洲伊丽莎白公主地区两雪坑内环境气候时间序列记录初步研究

对１９９６／１９９７年中国首次南极内陆冰盖考察获得的南极洲伊丽莎白公主地区两个雪坑样品的阴离子、阳离子和δ１８Ｏ进行对比分析,结果表明ＮＯ－３的浓度变化和δ１８Ｏ的变化同相,Ｃｌ－的浓度变化和δ１８Ｏ的变化异相,两者的变化和δ１８Ｏ的变化一样,都形成明显的季节变化层,这为研究者在本地区冰盖内划分年层、建立时间序列提供了重要的依据,但与之相反的是,各种阳离子的时间序列却不明显。另外,两个雪坑中的ｎｓｓＳＯ４２－在１９９５／１９９４和１９９３／１９９２都表现出非常高的浓度值,很可能是１９９１年６月和１９９１年８月的Ｐｉｎａｔｕｂｏ火山和ＣｅｒｒｏＨｕｄｓｏｎ火山的爆发在本地区冰雪中的反应     

The establishment of GPS network in Grove Mountains,East Antarctica

The Grove Mountains are located in Princess Elizabeth Land,East Antarctica,ext ending from 72° to 73°S latitude and 73° to 76°E longitude,covering approxi mately 8000 km～2 areas.During the 2002/2003 austral summer season,the 19th CH INARE(Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition)carried out the third expedition in Grove Mountains,East Antarctica.The Geodetic network was establ ished,which can provide ground control for the satellite image map for the mult i-discipline expedition in the Grove Mountains where seven permanent GPS benchm a rks were set up supported by the helicopter and snow vehicles.All GPS sites bes ides Z001 were observed at least for one hour using the dual frequencies Trimble 4000ssi GPS receivers.The data were processed by the comprehensive GPS analysi s package—GAMIT/GLOBK and the precision is good enough to satisfy with the acqu irement of satellite mapping in this area.     

Seasonal variations of the near surfacelayer parameters over the Antarctic ice sheet in Princess Elizabeth Land,East Antarctica

Analysis of sensible heat flux(Qh),latent heat flux(Qe),Richardson number(Ri),bulk transport coefficient(Cd) and katabatic winds are presented by using the meteorological data in the near surface layer from an automatic weather station(AWS) in Princess Elizabeth Land,East Antarctica ice sheet and the data of corresponding period at Zhongshan station in 2002.It shows that annual mean air temperature at LGB69 is-25.6°C,which is 16.4°C lower than that at Zhongshan,where the elevation is lower and located on the coast.The temperature lapse rate is about 1.0°C/110 m for the initial from coast to inland.The turbulence heat flux at LGB69 displays obvious seasonal variations with the average sensible heat flux-17.9 W/m2 and latent heat flux-0.9 W/m2.The intensity(Qh+Qe) of coolling source is-18.8 W/m2 meaning the snow surface layer obtains heat from atmosphere.The near surface atmosphere is near-neutral stratified with bulk transport coefficients(Cd) around 2.8×10-3,and it is near constant when the wind speed higher than 8 m/s.The speed and the frequency of easterly Katabatic winds at LGB69 were higher than that at Zhongshan Station.