The relationship between mean annual growth rates and the size of cities in the USSR

3 groups of USSR cities are used to study the correlation between city size and the mean annual city growth rates of: 1) oblast capitals of the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republics (RSFSR) with diversified machine building; 2) industrial cities of the RSFSR and the Ukraine based on heavy machine building; and 3) small and medium sized textile towns. Results show that the closeness of the relationship between growth rates and city size increases with the number of comparable attributes. The principal factors included are: the level of organization of the city, including its size; its functional and industrial sectoral structure; the degree of saturation with industry; and type of city, probably the key characteristic. The more highly developed a city is, the more important an ntegrated focus it becomes. On the other hand, the lower the level of organization of the city, the more its development will be determined by the function of place. Growth rates of small and medium sized textile towns over the last 20-36 years are roughly 1/5 of the growth rates of oblast capitals and large industrial cities with machine building. Overall, cities of the central economic region constitute a complex system that breaks down into the rhythms of systems of a given type and of different types at various levels of organization. Although cities that are homogeneous in terms of functional, industrial, sectoral, and territorial factors display a correlation between mean annual growth rates and population size, only by looking at these factors in combination, rather than counterposing them to one another, can we identify the objective regularities underlying the growth of cities.     

Social-demographic development of Vologda Oblast during the intercensal period 1970-79

"Demographic trends in Vologda Oblast are analyzed on the basis of 1979 census results as a case study of an oblast involved in the [development] program for the Nonchernozem Zone of the RSFSR. The trend in the 1970-79 intercensal period was for continuing growth of urban population, especially in the two major urban centers of Vologda and the iron and steel city of Cherepovets, and depopulation of rural areas. The age-sex structure is distinguished by a strong aging trend and sex imbalance, especially in rural areas. Despite the proclaimed aim of fostering abandonment of tiny rural places (with 25 residents or less), the number of places in that size class actually increased during the intercensal period (from 40% of all rural places in 1970 to 52 percent in 1979)."     

Regional population redistribution in the USSR: 1979-84

"The primary purpose of this paper is to assess very broadly the regional growth and redistribution of the total, urban and rural populations of the USSR, as well as aggregate, regional and city size patterns of urbanization for the 1979-84 period. In order to investigate the continuity or reversal of trends, comparisons with preceding intercensal periods will also be undertaken, particularly with the 1970-79 period." It is found that "regional rates of population change between 1979 and 1984 were generally lower than those of 1970-79, primarily due to a general decline in natural increase rates. In addition, regional variations in rates of population change for the 1979-84 period were similar to those of the 1970-79 period.... The USSR has apparently reversed its long-term trend of deconcentration in the sense that the population as a whole is becoming more concentrated again, but this time in a new area of concentration, Central Asia, which is now the most populous economic region."     

Large urban agglomerations of the Soviet Union

The study of urban agglomerations in the USSR is discussed, with a focus on their basic framework and role in settlement and on the various techniques used to define such agglomerations. "The present paper envisages a minimum population of 250,000 for the core city (or cities), maximum travel time of 1.5 to 2 hours to the core city, and a minimum value for a 'development coefficient' reflecting the population of the agglomeration and its structure in terms of urban places. The networks of agglomerations that existed at the time of the 1959 and 1970 censuses are analyzed and compared. The urban agglomerations are grouped into five classes of development levels and into three classes of growth rates. Intensive and extensive growth factors are discussed."     

1978年以来广州市居民职住地选择行为时空特征与影响因素的代际差异

1978年以来,中国体制改革重塑了个体日常时空行为及其在生命过程中的活动轨迹,但鲜有文献解析长时间序列下不同代际群体对职住政策调整做出的响应及其代际差异。基于时间地理学视角与代际差异理论,将广州市微观个体职住地变动历程与代际问题相结合,利用问卷调查分析1988年和1998年居民职住制度改革前后,不同代际居民职住地变迁行为时空特征及其影响因素的结构性差异。结果发现：① 在居住地和就业地变迁方向方面,各代际居民住房迁出地主要集中于老城区,就业地变迁围绕两个城市中心,形成由老城核心地域向内城、近郊扩散的变迁过程。② 职住地距离变化方面,居民平均职住距离由1988年之前的4.91 km增至1998年之后的6.46 km,20世纪90年代出生居民（简称90后,下同）的职住分离度大于其他群体。③ 在职住地变迁率方面,住房商品化和就业社会化极大地增加了居民职住地选择自由度,60后和70后在1998年之后的迁居率分别为113.16%与112.33%,就业地变迁率分别为148.68%与197.26%,二者都远高于住房改革前的比例。④ 驻留时长方面,职住自由化使得驻留时长明显缩短。60后变化最为明显,该群体在一个居住地的居住时长由1988年以前的14.43年缩至1998年以后的5.43年,就业地驻留时长由12.43年降至3.95年;80后与90后在1998年以后的职住地驻留时长明显较短,70后相对较长。⑤ 能力、组合及权威制约中的房价、婚姻状况、学历、福利分房及下岗等因素对职住地变迁表现出明显代际差异,因子女上学及同事关系等组合制约对就业地变迁无显著群体差别。     

Polarization reversal in the development of Brazilian metropolises? An analysis based on demographic indicators,using the example of Sao Paulo

"Using the example of Sao Paulo, this paper addresses itself to the question of how far the decrease in growth rates one observes in large Brazilian metropolises can be interpreted as a process of polarization reversal. The analysis is carried out on the basis of demographic data from small area units, which include the results from the most recent 1991 census. Although it had already been possible in the 1970s to discern first indications of such a process setting in, in the decade 1981-91 indicators of population growth and migration balances agree in pointing to a polarization reversal." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Population development in rural areas of the United States in the 1980s: turnaround of trends or continuity?

"The article analyses the population growth in rural counties of the U.S.A. for 1970-80 and 1980-86. The growth rates are examined on different levels of aggregation (individual counties, subregions and regions) and in relation to several possible determinants of growth. The main objective of the study is to examine whether the growth patterns in the eighties support the hypothesis of a turnaround in the population development of rural areas.... The results reveal a diversity of growth patterns and significant regional differences. Rural counties within the daily urban system of a metropolitan area have significantly higher growth rates than peripheral rural counties. The results do not support the notion of a turnaround of long established trends. The trends in the eighties bear more resemblance to traditional growth patterns of rural areas." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

National and regional population trends in the USSR, 1979-89: preliminary results from the 1989 census

"This article investigates national, macroregional, and economic regional population trends in the USSR during the 1979-89 intercensal period based on preliminary results from the 1989 census. The national total population growth rate during 1979-89 was roughly similar to that of 1970-79. However, the urban growth and urbanization processes slowed, while the rate of rural population change increased due chiefly to reduced rural-urban migration. Regional variations in rates of total, urban, and rural population change generally resembled those of 1970-79. Central Asia continued to exhibit the most rapid overall growth, although Siberia experienced a resurgence."     

区域经济增长时空分异模拟方法——以京津冀都市圈为例

区域经济增长是有着丰富时空内涵的动态变化过程,认识和定量分析这种动态变化过程一直受到广泛关注。借助农业区位论、增长极理论和梯度推移理论的学术思想、概念和术语,在量化定义区域经济增长空间概念的基础上,提出了基于GIS技术的区域经济增长时空分异模拟方法,进而以京津冀都市圈为例进行实证研究和专业分析。研究结果表明:京津冀都市圈由城市增长极中心向外围,随着距离的增大,经济增长呈现出了显著的衰减特征,不同城市之间存在着明显的经济低谷地带。1993~2003年期间,都市圈的经济增长时空分异尤以京、津两市的极化增长最为显著;京、津两大增长极除对唐山方向有拉动效应外,对其它地市的带动辐射力度尚较小;都市圈内部的城市等级还未完全展开,尚未形成合理的梯度推移和梯级演化结构。     

DO CENTRAL CITIES AND SUBURBS HAVE SIMILAR DIMENSIONS OF NEED?

This paper examines the proposition that United States suburbs are gradually acquiring many of the traits and problems traditionally associated with inner cities. An analysis of direct and surrogate measures of community development need indicates that in 1970 the average central city had a greater percapita need than the average Chicago suburb. However, the dimensions of need of central cities and suburbs are quite similar. Close associations between minority race, poverty, and female-headed families exist in both central cities and suburbs, as do high residual correlations between population decline, elderly populations, and low levels of crowding.     

The cities of the RSFSR: trends and prospects of development

The relationship between function and city size in cities of the Russian part of the USSR with a population of over 100,000 is examined for the period 1939 to 1980. The results suggest that "the relationship between city growth and functional change is wavelike in nature. In the initial stages of development of a city, it is the construction and transport functions that predominate, and they are associated with high rates of population growth. Increasing functional complexity leads to slower rates of population growth. When the given city reaches a higher stage of development...it again begins to attract population, with relatively low rates of growth."     

Population development in Greater Santiago between 1970 and 1982: an analysis of district census results

"An attempt is made in the light of an analysis of population changes occurring in several sub-districts of Greater Santiago in the period between the last population censuses of 1970 and 1982, based on small-area census units (distritos and communas) to draw attention to the effects on the spatial growth of the city resulting from changed conditions in the political and juridical sphere since the change of power in 1973." The effect of changes in government policy concerning the liberalization of the property market and the illegal occupation of land are noted. (summary in ENG)     

20年代以来西方国家城市内部结构研究进展

本文以城市内部结构研究的三大学派为主要线索，论述了本世纪２０年代以来城市内部结构研究理论、方法和研究内容的进展。     

南京大都市区建设用地扩张特征与机理

作为全球城市化最快的地区之一,中国建设用地的扩张引起了广泛的关注。以长三角北翼中心城市南京为例,利用遥感、土地利用调查等数据研究大都市区建设用地扩张的过程、格局与机理。研究表明,1985-2007年南京市在工业化、城市化和国际化的推动下经济快速增长,引致了建设用地的扩张,年均增长率为3.14%。2001年后随着城市发展模式由单中心向多中心转换,建设用地呈加速扩展趋势。南京市建设用地扩展具有明显的沿长江和南北交通走廊轴向发展的特征。开发区和新城建设是南京市建设用地扩张的主要方式。区、县尺度的回归分析表明,人口增加、全球化是城镇工矿用地扩张的重要推手;经济的服务业化有利于土地集约利用,减少对用地的需求,这种影响在城区更大;在分权化竞争中,都市区政府具有更强的控制力。     

Recent trends of population development in the French urban system

"The paper analyses the population development of French urban agglomerations of more than 50,000 inhabitants over the last three decades (1962-90). Trends of net migration, natural increase and total population change are examined with respect to different functional and structural city types. The results show changes of long established growth patterns: an overall decrease of urban growth rates in the seventies and the resurgence of the growth of the largest metropolitan areas in the eighties." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

毛乌素沙地汉代古城遗址空间格局及驱动力分析

运用最近邻指数法、空间分析法和耦合分析方法,研究了毛乌素沙地31座汉代古城遗址的分布特征,探讨了古城遗址空间格局与地理环境要素之间的关系。通过对31处古城址进行点格局分析,得出古城遗址间平均最近邻直线距离为25.5 km,属于凝聚分布模式。汉代古城遗址主要集中在4个集聚区,即秦长城—秦直道强影响区（A）、秦长城—秦直道弱影响区（B）、西南集聚区（C）及西北集聚区（D）。其中,秦长城—秦直道强影响区（A）是最主要的遗址分布区,占古城址总量的48.4%。毛乌素沙地汉代古城遗址呈西疏东密的分布特征,形成明显的“空间组群”格局。在当时的气候背景下,地貌和水资源等自然因素主要制约城址的选择,而政治、军事和交通区位等人文因素则对古城遗址的数量和空间结构起主导作用。     

群组型港口城市用地时空扩展特征及外部形态演变——以宁波为例

以多时相Landsat MSS、TM和ETM 卫星影像为数据源,提取宁波城市各组团(三江片、镇海片和北仑片) 多时相的用地信息,分析了港口城市用地扩展的时空特征及外部形态演变过程。结果表明: (1) 1979年以来,宁波城市用地面积扩展速度和扩展强度不断提高,但各个组团的表现有较大的差异。(2) 各组团城市用地空间结构分维数的波动与城市用地的空间扩展模式表现出明显的相关性。(3) 3个组团的城市用地扩展强度指数峰区相对城市质心有不断外移趋势,但扩展强度指数峰值的变化在各个片区有一定差异。(4) 3个组团城市用地外部形态演变在不同方向上的差异性与宁波港口迁移及港口经济的发展密切相关。(5) 随着宁波港口从内河港向河口港、海岸港的迁移,宁波城市外部形态演变经历块状单一集中型内河港城市、 "一城一镇"飞地式群组河口港城市、"一城二镇" 飞地式群组海港城市和"一城多镇"不连续带状群组海港城市发展阶段,最后将形成"T"型带状群组现代化国际港口城市。     

长江干流径流的时序结构与长期记忆

基于宜昌、汉口、大通3个典型控制站的长期月径流序列,本文采用奇异谱分析方法、消除波动趋势法 (DFA) 等手段,识别长江干流径流序列的趋势、突变、周期振荡等时序结构及其长期记忆特征。主要结论有：①长江干流径流序列存在明显的准15年周期振荡特征,该周期振荡1970s以来受到某种扰动而弱化;② 宜昌站径流序列于1926 年、1970 年发生两次突变,均以径流减少为特征;汉口站径流序列于1955a发生突变,也以径流减少为特征;大通站径流于1955年、1988年发生两次突变,前者以径流减少为特征,后者以增加为特征;③ 长江干流月径流序列存在较强的确定性成分,长期记忆特征明显;集水面积越大,径流序列的长期记忆越强,表现出明显的记忆累积效应。     

SALES TAX AS PROPERTY TAX RELIEF? THE SHIFTING ONUS OF LOCAL REVENUE GENERATION

Local governments are under pressure to develop alternative revenue sources to their already strapped property tax bases. Throughout the 1970s, municipal governments nationwide restructured their local taxes by substituing sales tax for property tax revenue. A tax accounting model identified two sources of sales-for-property tax substitution: changes in the tax rates and normal economic growth and decline. Most of the sales-for-property tax substitution experienced in Illinois city finance was attributable to economic change. The critical determinant of this substitution appreared to be the municipality's share of the regional retail market. Cities in higher density metropolitan areas were less likely to experience sales-for-property tax substitution through economic growth than those cities in lower density, less competitive environments.     

榆林地区1970-2010年气候因子变化特征分析

榆林位于陕西省黄土高原和内蒙古毛乌素沙地的交接地带,是我国北方农牧交错带的典型地区,地理环境复杂多样,致使该地区生态环境比较敏感,极易受到气候变化和人类活动的影响和干扰。为探讨榆林地区气候变化的发展趋势和特征,基于1970-2010年气象资料,对榆林地区5个气象指标（平均最低气温、平均最高气温、平均气温、降水量和太阳辐射）进行空间插值,进而分析了各指标的季节和年际变化特征,即趋势变化、周期性变化、突变特征。结果表明,榆林地区气温呈现上升的趋势,春季和冬季的气温增幅对全年的增温贡献较大;降水量波动变化较大,夏季降水量减少比其他季节明显。20世纪80年代的降水量较大,90年代前期和中期降水量减少,而90年代后期降水量出现了回升趋势;41 a来的太阳辐射呈现下降的趋势,夏季太阳辐射的减少对全年太阳辐射的减少贡献较大。5个气象指标的周期性变化在大时间尺度上（如25~32 a）变化比较稳定,在小时间尺度上差异比较明显;降水量和平均最低气温在三类时间尺度（如5~15 a、15~25 a和25~30 a）上的周期比较明显。另外,除春季降水量外,其他季节的气象因子在1970-2010年期间变化频率有增加、时间间隔减少的趋势,说明最近10~20 a榆林地区气候变化比较活跃。对榆林地区气候变化特征进行分析,为进一步揭示气候变化下榆林地区农业生产系统的影响机理提供理论基础,为当地政府制定农业生产政策提供决策支持。