Regional characteristics of the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the sea level in the China Sea

Based on coastal tide level, satellite altimetry, and sea surface temperature (SST) data of offshore areas of China’s coast and the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the regional characteristics of the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the sea level in the China Sea were investigated. Singular value decomposition results show a significant teleconnection between the sea level in the China Sea and the SST of the tropical Pacific Ocean; the correlation coefficient decreases from south to north. Data from tide gauges along China’s coast show that the seasonal sea-level variations are significantly correlated with the ENSO. In addition, China’s coast was divided into three regions based on distinctive regional characteristics. Results obtained show that the annual amplitude of sea level was low during El Niño developing years, and especially so during the El Niño year. The ENSO intensity determined the response intensity of the annual amplitude of the sea level. The response region (amplitude) was relatively large for strong ENSO intensities. Significant oscillation periods at a timescale of 4–7 years existed in the sea level of the three regions. The largest amplitude of oscillation was 1.5 cm, which was the fluctuation with the 7-year period in the South China Sea. The largest amplitude of oscillation in the East China Sea was about 1.3 cm. The amplitude of oscillation with the 6-year period in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea was the smallest (less than 1 cm).     

Variability in Solomon Sea circulation derived from altimeter sea level data

The Solomon Sea is a key region in the Pacific Ocean where equatorial and subtropical circulations are connected. The region exhibits the highest levels in sea level variability in the entire south tropical Pacific Ocean. Altimeter data was utilized to explore sea level and western boundary currents in this poorly understood portion of the ocean. Since the geography of the region is extremely intricate, with numerous islands and complex bathymetry, specifically reprocessed along-track data in addition to standard gridded data were utilized in this study. Sea level anomalies (SLA) in the Solomon Sea principally evolve at seasonal and interannual time scales. The annual cycle is phased by Rossby waves arriving in the Solomon Strait, whereas the interannual signature corresponds to the basin-scale ENSO mode. The highest SLA variability are concentrated in the eastern Solomon Sea, particularly at the mouth of the Solomon Strait, where they are associated with a high eddy kinetic energy signal that was particularly active during the phase transition during the 1997–1998 ENSO event. Track data appear especially helpful for documenting the fine structure of surface coastal currents. The annual variability of the boundary currents that emerged from altimetry compared quite well with the variability seen at the thermocline level, as based on numerical simulations. At interannual time scales, western boundary current transport anomalies counterbalance changes in western equatorial Pacific warm water volume, confirming the phasing of South Pacific western boundary currents to ENSO. Altimetry appears to be a valuable source of information for variability in low latitude western boundary currents and their associated transport in the South Pacific.     

Contrasting the evolution between two types of El Niño in a data assimilation model

Simulation outputs were used to contrast the distinct evolution patterns between two types of El Niño. The modeled isotherm depth anomalies closely matched satellite sea surface height anomalies. Results for the El Niño Modoki (central Pacific El Niño) corresponded well with previous studies which suggested that thermocline variations in the equatorial Pacific contain an east–west oscillation. The eastern Pacific El Niño experienced an additional north–south seesaw oscillation between approximately 15° N and 15° S. The wind stress curl pattern over the west-central Pacific was responsible for the unusual manifestation of the eastern Pacific El Niño. The reason why the 1982/1983 El Niño was followed by a normal state whereas a La Niña phase developed from the 1997/1998 El Niño is also discussed. In 1997/1998, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) retreated faster and easterly trade winds appeared immediately after the mature El Niño, cooling the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific and generating the La Niña event. The slow retreat of the ITCZ in 1982/1983 terminated the warm event at a much slower rate and ultimately resulted in a normal phase.     

Banda Sea surface-layer divergence

Sea-surface temperature (SST) within the Banda Sea varies from a low of 26.5 °C in August to a high of 29.5 °C in December and May. Ekman upwelling reaches a maximum in May and June of approximately 2.5 Sv (Sv=10⁶ m³ s^?1) with Ekman downwelling at a maximum in February of approximately 1.0 Sv. The Ekman pumping annual average is 0.75 Sv upwelling. During the upwelling period, from April through December the average Ekman upwelling velocity is 2.36 × 10^?6 m s^?1 (1.27 Sv). ENSO modulation is generally within 0.5 Sv of the mean Ekman curve, with weaker (stronger) July to October upwelling during El Niño (La Niña). Combined TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS 1993–1999 altimeter data reveal a 33 cm maximum range of sea level. Steric effects are minor, with well over 80% of the sea level change due to mass divergence (some bias due to unresolved tidal aliasing may still be present). The annual and interannual sea level behavior follows the monsoonal and ENSO phenomena, respectively. Lower (higher) sea level occurs in the southeast (northwest) monsoon and during El Niño (La Niña) events. The surface-layer volume anomaly and the surface-layer divergence, assuming a two-layer ocean, are estimated. Maximum divergence is attained during the transitional monsoon months of October/November: 1.7 Sv gain (convergence), with matching loss (divergence) in the April/May. During the El Niño growth period of 1997 the surface layer is divergent, but in 1998 when the El Niño was on the wane, the average rate of change is convergent. Surface-layer divergence attains values as high as 4 Sv. Banda Sea surface-water divergence correlates reasonably well with the 3-month lagged export of surface (upper 100?m) water into the Indian Ocean as estimated by a shallow pressure gauge array. It is concluded that the Banda Sea surface-layer divergence influences the timing and transport profile of the Indonesian throughflow export into the Indian Ocean, as proposed by Wyrtki in 1958, and that satellite altimetry may serve as an effective means of monitoring this phenomena.     

An assessment of the mixed layer salinity budget in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Observations and modelling (1990–2009)

This paper investigates mechanisms controlling the mixed-layer salinity (MLS) in the tropical Pacific during 1990–2009. We use monthly 1°?×?1° gridded observations of salinity, horizontal current and fresh water flux, and a validated ocean general circulation model with no direct MLS relaxation in both its full resolution (0.25° and 5 days) and re-sampled as the observation time/space grid resolution. The present study shows that the mean spatial distribution of MLS results from a subtle balance between surface forcing (E???P, evaporation minus precipitation), horizontal advection (at low and high frequencies) and subsurface forcing (entrainment and mixing), all terms being of analogous importance. Large-scale seasonal MLS variability is found mainly in the Intertropical and South Pacific Convergence Zones due to changes in their meridional location (and related heavy P), in the North Equatorial Counter Currents, and partly in the subsurface forcing. Maximum interannual variability is found in the western Pacific warm pool and in both convergence zones, in relation to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. In the equatorial band, this later variability is due chiefly to the horizontal advection of low salinity waters from the western to the central-eastern basin during El Niño (and vice versa during La Niña), with contrasted evolution for the Eastern and Central Pacific ENSO types. Our findings reveal that all terms of the MLS equation, including high-frequency (<1 month) salinity advection, have to be considered to close the salinity budget, ruling out the use of MLS (or sea surface salinity) only to directly infer the mean, seasonal and/or interannual fresh water fluxes.     

Low‐frequency modulation and trend of the relationship between ENSO and precipitation along the northern to centre Peruvian Pacific coast

The relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation along the Peruvian Pacific coast is investigated over 1964–2011 on the basis of a variety of indices accounting for the different types of El Niño events and atmospheric and oceanographic manifestations of the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. We show the existence of fluctuations in the ENSO/precipitation relationship at decadal timescales that are associated with the ENSO property changes over the recent decades. Several indices are considered in order to discriminate the influence of the two types of El Niño, namely, the eastern Pacific El Niño and the central Pacific El Niño, as well as the influence of large‐scale atmospheric variability associated to the Madden and Julian Oscillation, and of regional oceanic conditions. Three main periods are identified that correspond to the interleave periods between the main climatic transitions over 1964–2011, i.e. the shifts of the 1970s and the 2000s, over which ENSO experiences significant changes in its characteristics. We show that the relationship between ENSO and precipitation along the western coast of Peru has experienced significant decadal change. Whereas El Niño events before 2000 lead to increased precipitation, in the 2000s, ENSO is associated to drier conditions. This is due to the change in the main ENSO pattern after 2000 that is associated to cooler oceanic conditions off Peru during warm events (i.e. central Pacific El Niño). Our analysis also indicates that the two extreme El Niño events of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 have overshadowed actual trends in the relationship between interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and precipitation along the coast of Peru. Overall, our study stresses on the complexity of the hydrological cycle on the western side of the Andes with regard to its relationship with the interannual to decadal variability in the tropical Pacific. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of El Niño–southern oscillation on global runoff: Characteristic signatures and potential mechanisms

Runoff signatures, including low flow, high flow, mean flow and flow variability, have important implications on the environment and society, predominantly through drought, flooding and water resources. Yet, the response of runoff signatures has not been previously investigated at the global scale, and the influencing mechanisms are largely unclear. Hence, this study makes a global assessment of runoff signature responses to the El Niño and La Niña phases using daily streamflow observations from 8217 gauging stations during 1960–2015. Based on the Granger causality test, we found that ~15% of the hydrological stations of multiple runoff signatures show a significant causal relationship with El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO). The quantiles of all runoff signatures were larger during the El Niño phase than during the La Niña phase, implying that the entire flow distribution tends to shift upward during El Niño and downward during La Niña. In addition, El Niño has different effects on low and high flows: it tends to increase the low and mean flow signatures but reduces the high flow and flow variability signatures. In contrast, La Niña generally reduces all runoff signatures. We highlight that the impacts of ENSO on streamflow signatures are manifested by its effects on precipitation (P), potential evaporation (PET) and leaf area index (LAI) through ENSO-induced atmospheric circulation changes. Overall, our study provides a comprehensive picture of runoff signature responses to ENSO, with valuable insights for water resources management and flood and drought disaster mitigation.     

2005—2017年两次强ENSO事件对中国区域陆地水储量变化影响的卫星重力观测

近年来极端气候事件的频发对全球和区域性水循环产生了重大影响,特别是2005—2017年间两次强ENSO(El Nino-Southern Oscillation)事件使得全球陆地水储量出现了较大的年际波动.GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)重力卫星随着数据质量的提高、后处理方法的完善和超过十年的连续观测,捕捉陆地水储量异常的能力明显提高,这为研究2005—2017年间两次强ENSO事件对中国区域陆地水储量变化的影响提供了观测基础.本文综合利用GRACE卫星重力数据、GLDAS水文模型和实测降水资料分析了中国区域陆地水储量年际变化和与ENSO的关系.研究发现:长江流域中、下游地区和东南诸河流域与ENSO存在较高的相关性,与ENSO的相关系数最大值分别为0.55、0.78、0.70,较ENSO分别滞后约7个月、5个月和5个月.其中长江流域下游地区与ENSO的相关性最强,2010/11 La Nina和2015/16 El Nino两次强ENSO事件使得陆地水储量分别发生了约-24.1亿吨和27.9亿吨的波动.在2010/11 La Nina期间,长江流域下游地区和东南诸河流域陆地水储量异常约在2011年4—5月达到谷值,而长江流域中游地区晚1~2月达到谷值.在2015/16 El Nino期间,长江流域中、下游地区和东南诸河流域陆地水储量从2015年9月到2016年7月持续出现正异常信号.其中,2015年秋冬季(2015年9月至2016年1月)陆地水储量异常明显是受此次El Nino同期影响的结果;2016年春季(4—5月)陆地水异常是受到此次厄尔尼诺峰值的滞后影响所致;2016年7月的陆地水储量异常则与西北太平洋存在的异常反气旋环流有关.     

A brief review of ENSO theories and prediction

Although the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) originates and develops in the equatorial Pacific, it has substantial climatic impacts around the globe. Thus, the ability to effectively simulate and predict ENSO one or more seasons in advance is of great societal importance, but this remains a challenging task. The main obstacles are the diversity, complexity,irregularity, and asymmetry of ENSO. The purpose of this article is to organically integrate the understanding of ENSO based on current progress on the physical mechanisms, prediction, and connections between the interannual ENSO phenomenon and physical processes on other time and space scales, and to provide guidance for future studies by extracting specific important questions.     

Mixed-layer water oscillations in tropical Pacific for ENSO cycle

The main modes of interannal variabilities of thermocline and sea surface wind stress in the tropical Pacific and their interactions are investigated,which show the following results.(1) The thermocline anomalies in the tropical Pacific have a zonal dipole pattern with 160°W as its axis and a meridional seesaw pattern with 6-8°N as its transverse axis.The meridional oscillation has a phase lag of about 90° to the zonal oscillation,both oscillations get together to form the El Ni?o/La Ni?a cycle,which be-haves as a mixed layer water oscillates anticlockwise within the tropical Pacific basin between equator and 12°N.(2) There are two main patterns of wind stress anomalies in the tropical Pacific,of which the first component caused by trade wind anomaly is characterized by the zonal wind stress anomalies and its corresponding divergences field in the equatorial Pacific,and the abnormal cross-equatorial flow wind stress and its corresponding divergence field,which has a sign opposite to that of the equatorial region,in the off-equator of the tropical North Pacific,and the second component represents the wind stress anomalies and corresponding divergences caused by the ITCZ anomaly.(3) The trade winds anomaly plays a decisive role in the strength and phase transition of the ENSO cycle,which results in the sea level tilting,provides an initial potential energy to the mixed layer water oscillation,and causes the opposite thermocline displacement between the west side and east side of the equator and also between the equator and 12°N of the North Pacific basin,therefore determines the amplitude and route for ENSO cycle.The ITCZ anomaly has some effects on the phase transition.(4) The thermal anomaly of the tropical western Pacific causes the wind stress anomaly and extends eastward along the equator accompanied with the mixed layer water oscillation in the equatorial Pacific,which causes the trade winds anomaly and produces the anomalous wind stress and the corresponding divergence in favor to conduce the oscillation,which in turn intensifies the oscillation.The coupled system of ocean-atmo-sphere interactions and the inertia gravity of the mixed layer water oscillation provide together a phase-switching mechanism and interannual memory for the ENSO cycle.In conclusion,the ENSO cycle essentially is an inertial oscillation of the mixed layer water induced by both the trade winds anomaly and the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropical Pacific basin between the equator and 12°N.When the force produced by the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction is larger than or equal to the resistance caused by the mixed layer water oscillation,the oscillation will be stronger or maintain as it is,while when the force is less than the resistance,the oscillation will be weaker,even break.     

Processes involved in the second-year warming of the 2015 El Nio event as derived from an intermediate ocean model

The tropical Pacific experienced a sustained warm sea surface condition that started in 2014 and a very strong El Nio event in 2015. One striking feature of this event was the horseshoe-like pattern of positive subsurface thermal anomalies that was sustained in the western-central equatorial Pacific throughout 2014–2015. Observational data and an intermediate ocean model are used to describe the sea surface temperature(SST) evolution during 2014–2015. Emphasis is placed on the processes involved in the 2015 El Nio event and their relationships with SST anomalies, including remote effects associated with the propagation and reflection of oceanic equatorial waves(as indicated in sea level(SL) signals) at the boundaries and local effects of the positive subsurface thermal anomalies. It is demonstrated that the positive subsurface thermal anomaly pattern that was sustained throughout 2014–2015 played an important role in maintaining warm SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. Further analyses of the SST budget revealed the dominant processes contributing to SST anomalies during 2014–2015. These analyses provide an improved understanding of the extent to which processes associated with the 2015 El Nio event are consistent with current El Nio and Southern Oscillation theories.     

Analysing the influences of ENSO and PDO on water discharge from the Yangtze River into the sea

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are two important climate oscillations that affect hydrological processes at global and regional scales. However, few studies have attempted to identify their single and combined influences on water discharge variability at multiple timescales. In this study, we examine temporal variation in water discharge from the Yangtze River into the sea and explore the influence of the ENSO and the PDO on multiscale variations in water discharge over the last century. The results of the wavelet transform analysis of the water discharge series show significant periodic variations at the interannual timescale of 2 to 8 years and the decadal timescale of 15 to 17 years. Water discharge tended to be higher during the La Niña–PDO cold phase and lower during the El Niño–PDO warm phase. The results of the cross wavelet spectrum and wavelet coherence analyses confirm the relationship between the interannual (i.e., 2 to 8 years) and decadal (i.e., 15 to 17 years) periodicities in water discharge with the ENSO and the PDO, respectively. As an important large‐scale climate background, the PDO can modulate the influence of the ENSO on water discharge variability. In general, the warm PDO enhances the influence of El Niño events, and the cold PDO enhances the influence of La Niña events. Our study is helpful in understanding the influencing mechanism of climate change on hydrological processes and provides an important scientific guideline for water resource prediction and management.     

Correlation between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation in South‐east Asia and the Pacific region

The relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events versus precipitation anomalies, and the response of seasonal precipitation to El Niño and La Niña events were investigated for 30 basins that represent a range of climatic types throughout South‐east Asia and the Pacific region. The teleconnection between ENSO and the hydroclimate is tested using both parametric and non‐parametric approaches, and the lag correlations between precipitation anomalies versus the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) several months earlier, as well as the coherence between SOI and precipitation anomalies are estimated. The analysis shows that dry conditions tend to be associated with El Niño in the southern zone, and part of the middle zone in the study area. The link between precipitation anomalies and ENSO is statistically significant in the southern zone and part of the middle zone of the study area, but significant correlation was not observed in the northern zone. Patterns of precipitation response may differ widely among basins, and even the response of a given river basin to individual ENSO events also may be changeable. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tropical precipitation anomalies and d‐excess evolution during El Niño 2014‐16

The last 2014‐16 El Niño event was among the three strongest episodes on record. El Niño considerably changes annual and seasonal precipitation across the tropics. Here, we present a unique stable isotope data set of daily precipitation collected in Costa Rica prior to, during, and after El Niño 2014‐16, in combination with Lagrangian moisture source and precipitation anomaly diagnostics. δ²H composition ranged from ‐129.4 to +18.1 (‰) while δ¹⁸O ranged from ‐17.3 to +1.0 (‰). No significant difference was observed among δ¹⁸O (P=0.186) and δ²H (P=0.664) mean annual compositions. However, mean annual d‐excess showed a significant decreasing trend (from +13.3 to +8.7 ‰) (P<0.001) with values ranging from +26.6 to ‐13.9 ‰ prior to and during the El Niño evolution. The latter decrease in d‐excess can be partly explained by an enhanced moisture flux convergence across the southeastern Caribbean Sea coupled with moisture transport from northern South America by means of an increased Caribbean Low Level Jet regime. During 2014‐15, precipitation deficit across the Pacific domain averaged 46% resulting in a very severe drought; while a 94% precipitation surplus was observed in the Caribbean domain. Understanding these regional moisture transport mechanisms during a strong El Niño event may contribute to a) better understanding of precipitation anomalies in the tropics and b) re‐evaluate past stable isotope interpretations of ENSO events in paleoclimatic archives within the Central America region.     

The effect of ENSO on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan,Indonesia

Abstract

The effect of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, is demonstrated. This research used rainfall data collected between 1978 and 2008. The results suggest a relationship between ENSO events and the trend in rainfall observed in the study area. Further analyses show that El Niño events have a stronger effect on the rainfall compared to La Niña events. El Niño events were also correlated to the increase in the number of days with less than 1 mm of rainfall in the dry season. The analysis reveals that the impact of El Niño events on rainfall in dry seasons is intensifying annually. Furthermore, ENSO events are not the only factors affecting rainfall trends in the observed area. Other factors, such as deforestation, may also affect the trend.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Susilo, G.E., Yamamoto, K., Imai, T., Ishii, Y., Fukami, H., and Sekine, M., 2013. The effect of ENSO on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 539–548.     

Influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on South Korean streamflow variability

Deciphering the mechanisms through which the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects hydrometeorological parameters in the tropics and extratropics is of great interest. We investigate climatic teleconnections between warm or cold phases of ENSO and streamflow patterns over South Korea using an empirical methodology designed to detect regions showing a strong and consistent hydroclimatic signal associated with ENSO. We calculate not only spatial coherence values by monthly streamflow composite formed over 2‐year ENSO cycle and the first harmonic fit to detect candidate regions but also temporal consistency rates by aggregate composite and index time series to determine core regions. As a result, the core regions, namely, the Han river basin and the Nakdong river basin, are detected with a high level of response of ENSO phenomena to streamflow patterns. The ENSO composites for both core regions indicate drier (wetter) conditions in early autumn of the warm (cold) episode years and wetter (drier) conditions from winter to spring of the following year. For both regions, the spatial coherences are over 92% (82%) and the temporal consistencies are 71% (75%) during the El Niño (La Niña) events. In addition, for the core regions identified by composite‐harmonic analysis for both extreme episodes, the results of comparative analyses by using correlation, annual cycle, and Wilcoxon rank sum test indicate that 2 opposite phases‐streamflow relationships have a tendency of sign reversal of the streamflow anomaly. Also, the positive departures during the El Niño years show more coherent and strong responses than the negative anomalies in the La Niña events. In conclusion, South Korea experiences climatic teleconnection between ENSO forcing and midlatitude streamflow patterns.     

Effect of ENSO on annual maximum floods and volume over threshold in the southwestern region of Iran

In this paper, the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the annual maximum flood (AMF) and volume over threshold (VOT) in two major neighbouring river basins in southwest Iran are investigated. The basins are located upstream of the Dez and Karun-I dams and cover over 40?000 km² in total area. The effects of ENSO on the frequency, magnitude and severity (frequency times magnitude) of flood characteristics over the March–April period were analysed. ENSO indices were also correlated with both AMF and VOT. The results indicate that, in the Dez and Karun basins, the El Niño phenomenon intensifies March–April floods compared with neutral conditions. The opposite is true in La Niña conditions. The degree of the effect is more intense in the El Niño period.     

Role of Ocean in the Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Asian summer monsoon sets in over India after the Intertropical Convergence Zone moves across the equator to the northern hemisphere over the Indian Ocean. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on either side of the equator in Indian and Pacific oceans are found related to the date of monsoon onset over Kerala (India). Droughts in the June to September monsoon rainfall of India are followed by warm SST anomalies over tropical Indian Ocean and cold SST anomalies over west Pacific Ocean. These anomalies persist till the following monsoon which gives normal or excess rainfall (tropospheric biennial oscillation). Thus, we do not get in India many successive drought years as in sub-Saharan Africa, thanks to the ocean. Monsoon rainfall of India has a decadal variability in the form of 30-year epochs of frequent (infrequent) drought monsoons occurring alternately. Decadal oscillations of monsoon rainfall and the well-known decadal oscillation in SST of the Atlantic Ocean (also of the Pacific Ocean) are found to run parallel with about the same period close to 60 years and the same phase. In the active–break cycle of the Asian summer monsoon, the ocean and the atmosphere are found to interact on the time scale of 30–60 days. Net heat flux at the ocean surface, monsoon low-level jetstream (LLJ) and the seasonally persisting shallow mixed layer of the ocean north of the LLJ axis play important roles in this interaction. In an El Niño year, the LLJ extends eastwards up to the date line creating an area of shallow ocean mixed layer there, which is hypothesised to lengthen the active–break (AB) cycle typically from 1 month in a La Niña to 2 months in an El Niño year. Indian monsoon droughts are known to be associated with El Niños, and long break monsoon spells are found to be a major cause of monsoon droughts. In the global warming scenario, the observed rapid warming of the equatorial Indian ocean SST has caused the weakening of both the monsoon Hadley circulation and the monsoon LLJ which has been related to the observed rapid decreasing trend in the seasonal number of monsoon depressions.     

Anticipation of ENSO: what teach us the resonantly forced baroclinic waves

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is characterized based on the date the events are mature. Their time lag defined relative to the central value of successive intervals of 4 years length, e.g. 01/1868–01/1872, 01/1872–01/1876 …, 01/1996–01/2000 … affects their evolution and, for a given amplitude, their variability. It specifies the dynamics of the quadrennial Quasi-Stationary Wave (QSW) in the tropical Pacific since ENSO always occurs at the end of the eastward phase propagation of that QSW. A third of events are unlagged with very low variability, SST anomalies being nearly concomitant between the extreme eastern and the central-eastern Pacific. A third of events are weakly lagged, in phase with the annual QSW, whose variability is much greater. Several months may elapse between the maximum SST anomalies east of the basin and along its equatorial central part. The last third of the events exhibits considerable variability, whether they are out of phase with the annual QSW or strongly lagged. The SST anomaly between 5°N and 20°N plays a key role in the maturation of the events out of phase. The events in phase (10% of the total population) are characterized by a negative SST anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific that reverses just before the maturation stage of ENSO. Sea water temperature 125 m deep in the central-eastern Pacific carries the earliest relevant information with a lead time of one year for forecasting the amplitude of unlagged ENSO while reporting how SST anomalies will develop until ENSO is fully developed. Besides, long-term forecast of the resumption of La Niña can be achieved accurately when weakly lagged events in phase with the annual QSW occur. The well differentiated typology of events vs. their time lag is the best clue to prove the leading role of the quadrennial QSW in the genesis of ENSO, while the related dynamic of the atmosphere ensues.     

Change of Indonesian Throughflow outflow in response to East Asian monsoon and ENSO activities since the Last Glacial

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) links upper ocean waters of the west Pacific and Indian Ocean, modulates heat and fresh water budgets between these oceans, and in turn plays an important role in global climate change. The climatic phenomena such as the East Asian monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exert a strong influence on flux, water properties and vertical stratification of the ITF. This work studied sediments of Core SO18462 that was retrieved from the outflow side of the ITF in the Timor Sea in order to investigate response of the ITF to monsoon and ENSO activities since the last glacial. Based on Mg/Ca ratios and oxygen isotopes in shells of planktonic foraminiferal surface and thermocline species, seawater temperatures and salinity of both surface and thermocline waters and vertical thermal gradient of the ITF outflow were reconstructed. Records of Core SO18462 were then compared with those from Core 3cBX that was recovered from the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP). The results displayed that similar surface waters occurred in the Timor Sea and the WPWP during the last glacial. Since ～16 ka, an apparent difference in surface waters between these two regions exists in salinity, indicated by much fresher waters in the Timor Sea than in the WPWP. In contrast, there is little change in difference of sea surface temperatures (SSTs). With regard to thermocline temperature (TT), it increased until ～11.5 ka since the last glacial, and then remained an overall unchanged trend in the WPWP but continuously decreased in the Timor Sea towards the late Holocene. Since ～6 ka, thermocline waters have tended to be close to each other in between the Timor Sea and the WPWP. It is indicated that intensified precipitation due to East Asian monsoon and possible ENSO cold phase significantly freshened surface waters over the Indonesian Seas, impeding the ITF surface flow and in turn having enhanced thermocline flow during the Holocene. Consequently, thermocline water of the ITF outflow was cooling and thermocline was shoaling towards the late Holocene. It is speculated that, in addition to strengthening of East Asian winter monsoon, increasing ENSO events during the late Holocene likely played an important role in influencing thermocline depth of the ITF outflow.