1999年台湾集集7．6级地震对大陆地区影响烈度调查及研究

本文通过对资料的分析研究,力求给出1999年台湾集集7.6级地震波及大陆东南沿海地区的影响烈度分布情况,并利用福建数字遥测地震台网有限的速度记录资料,给出该震波及大陆东南沿海地区峰值加速度分布的参考性结果.研究表明,平潭、惠安、莆田、福清等地受该地震波及的影响烈度、峰值加速度是大陆东南沿海地区最高的.     

论余震震级与震中烈度的关系

对于震级和烈度的关系,人们通常采用李善邦提出的公式M=0.58I_o+1.5以及付承义和刘正荣提出的公式M=0.68I_o+1.39logh-1.40。这两个经验关系式在中国地区一般是适合的。可是,在实践中不断发现,对于一次大地震之后的余震包括晚期余震,这个关系又有可以察觉到的系统的差别。本文研究了近十年来中国华北地区几次大地震的余震资料,提出了余震震级与震中烈度之间新的关系式,并给出了初步的理论解释。     

论余震震级与震中烈度的关系(英文)

震级和震中烈度的关系,人们通常采用李善邦研究中国近代地震时给出的公式M=0.58I_0+1.5,以及考虑了震源深度的影响后,付承义和刘正荣给出的公式M=0.68I_o+1.39Logh-1.40,这两个经验关系在中国地区一般是适合的。 可是我们在实践中不断发现,对于一次大地震之后的余震包括晚期余震,又有可以察觉到这个关系式有系统的差别。本文研究了近十年来中国华北地区的几次大地震后的余震资料,分别计算了考虑震源深度和不考虑震源深度两种情况下的余震震级和震中烈度的关系。通过最小二乘法计算给出 M=(0.69±0.09)I_o+(1.00±0.64),和采用二元线性回归求解得 M=(0.72±0.09)I_o+(1.03±0.93)Logh-(0.45±1.45)。 对比可见,显然余震有其本身的震级与震中烈度的关系式,和一般地震的这个关系不尽相同,即在震级相同的情况下,余震震中烈度偏低约半度。本文从余震发生的应力状态、介质特征以及余震活动的分布特点等方面,给予了初步的理论解释。     

强余震的灾害评估

极震区的烈度分布是由主震和大余震产生的。最重的地震灾区为余震区，其范围可由震级与地震区烈度的统计关系求得。在震级与震中烈度关系中，初期余震的烈度略高于主震，晚期强余震的烈度比主震的低。不同烈度对建筑物的损害程度可通过烈度与损失率曲线进行评估。强余震和后续强震的人口伤亡比主震轻。     

汶川及芦山地震余震分布的空间尺度效应

基于GIS点格局方法,从余震点分布的不确定性以及烈度区与点空间距离格局的关系角度研究了汶川及芦山余震点格局．结果表明:余震在较小尺度内接近随机分布且关联效应明显; 在较大尺度内余震聚集分布,空间距离关联仍呈幂律关系,无标度区间的上下限与不同烈度区的长短轴间存在关联．汶川、 芦山余震形成东北—西南向矩形的热点、 次热点分布区,区域内最邻近指数为0.99,0.76; 映秀Ⅺ度、 芦山Ⅸ度烈度区内最邻近指数分别为1.02和0.95,显示余震点在强烈度、 高聚集区内趋向随机分布．余震点距离关联特征表明:汶川余震在13.5—20 km和30—43 km区间,芦山余震在7—14.5 km区间内关联程度显著; 汶川余震在66—82 km、 225—236 km、 317—321.5 km区间以及芦山余震在15.5—22 km、 23—32.5 km、 33.5—43.5 km区间仍呈幂律关系. 该结果与汶川地震Ⅺ—Ⅸ度、 芦山地震Ⅸ—Ⅶ度烈度分布区域的长短轴存在一定关联,321.5 km和40 km与两次地震主破裂面长度也较为吻合. 对比核密度估计与地震烈度图可以看出: 带宽越小,核密度面积与较高烈度区域的一致性越大; 随着带宽的扩大,核密度面积与烈度区的差异也越大．      

1518年6月22日韩国首尔以西海域——南黄海大震

1518年6月22日韩国首尔以西海域——南黄海发生大震。地震波及朝鲜半岛全境,并在韩国首尔等沿海地区造成破坏,首尔的烈度为Ⅷ度,余震持续一个多月。地震还影响到中国东部地区。震级定为M7?级。此次地震可能与朝鲜半岛西缘断裂带（南黄海东缘断裂带）的活动有关。震中定于该断裂带附近（36.5°N,125.2°E）。     

强震序列的地震烈度

本文讨论了地震序列中前震、主震和余震的烈度。在大震以后余震不断发生的情况下,震源区的岩层介质逐渐破碎,对地震波传播的吸收影响加大。同样震级的强余震的烈度,将由于发生的时间次序和空间位置的不同而有所差异。前震与主震的烈度,因震源区和地表介质基本完整而看不出有此种影响。 文中还提出要注意和区分早期强余震烈度对主震烈度的影响。     

利用GIS绘制综合等震线

利用ＧＩＳ的拓扑叠加原理绘制了东南沿海地区的综合等震线,并将这种方法加以推广,编制了利用ＧＩＳ绘制综合等震线的通用程序,为工程地震研究中的烈度区划工作提供了方便途径     

青海门源6.7级地震的监视预报

1986年8月26日在甘青交界的冷龙岭北坡发生了6.7级地震,据甘肃台网测定,截止1986年9月底共发生余震612次,其中.级以上3次,最大余震为5.7级.余震分布面积约360平方公里.地震发生在偏僻山区,震中烈度虽达8度,但无人畜伤亡,房屋破坏亦极轻微,社会反响不大.这次地震发生在全国6个重点监视区之一的民乐盆地东南边缘.该重点监视区是1984年全国地震趋势会商会确定的.并认为有发生6.5—7级地震的可能性,1985     

主震与余震的震级统计关系及其地震动模型参数

本文从文献[1,2,3]中按一定的筛选原则,挑选出49组主、余震震级资料,通过回归分析,统计出了主震震级与余震震级之间的经验公式。然后,从结构在主、余震作用下的反应分析和抗震设计的需要出发,给出了确定主余震地震动时程曲线的方法,并以文献[4]为基础,确定了主震与余震的随机地震动模型及其参数。     

基于余震序列的地震烈度快速评估方法研究——以青海门源6.9级地震为例

地震烈度快速评估产品是破坏性地震发生后应急工作"黑箱期"内研判灾情的重要依据.文章基于青海门源6.9级地震震后2 h内的余震序列,采用最短断层距地震动衰减模型快速评估地震烈度.研究结果显示:利用震后30分钟内的余震序列得到的烈度分布可以初步判定重灾区及灾区范围,但灾区范围略小于实际调查结果;利用1.5 h内的余震序列得...     

Relocation of the MS5.7 Earthquake Sequence in Songyuan, Jilin Province, 2018 and the Analysis of Its Seismogenic Structure

The 2018,Songyuan,Jilin M_S5. 7 earthquake occurred at the intersection of the FuyuZhaodong fault and the Second Songhua River fault. The moment magnitude of this earthquake is M_W5. 3,the centroid depth by the waveform fitting is 12 km,and it is a strike-slip type event. In this paper,with the seismic phase data provided by the China Earthquake Network, the double-difference location method is used to relocate the earthquake sequence,finally the relocation results of 60 earthquakes are obtained. The results show that the aftershock zone is about 4. 3km long and 3. 1km wide,which is distributed in the NE direction. The depth distribution of the seismic sequence is 9km-10 km. 1-2 days after the main shock,the aftershocks were scattered throughout the aftershock zone,and the largest aftershock occurred in the northeastern part of the aftershock zone. After 3-8 days,the aftershocks mainly occurred in the southwestern part of the aftershock zone. The profile distribution of the earthquake sequence shows that the fault plane dips to the southeast with the dip angle of about 75°. Combined with the regional tectonic setting,focal mechanism solution and intensity distribution,we conclude that the concealed fault of the Fuyu-Zhaodong fault is the seismogenic fault of the Songyuan M_S5. 7 earthquake. This paper also relocates the earthquake sequence of the previous magnitude 5. 0 earthquake in 2017. Combined with the results of the focal mechanism solution,we believe that the two earthquakes have the same seismogenic structure,and the earthquake sequence generally develops to the southwest. The historical seismic activity since 2009 shows that after the magnitude 5. 0 earthquake in 2017,the frequency and intensity of earthquakes in the earthquake zone are obviously enhanced,and attention should be paid to the development of seismic activity in the southwest direction of the earthquake zone.     

多分形断层模型与地震序列研究

本文提出形成地震序列的多分形断层模型并利用分形分维理论讨论该模型及其序列。给出本模型的震级—频度关系、余震序列中强余震预报公式和多分维D_q—q关系式,探讨了利用多分维预报地震的有效性。     

序列衰减与余震激发研究进展及应用成果

着重于序列衰减与余震激发,系统介绍了修改的大森公式、ETAS模型及BASS模型的最新理论研究进展及应用成果。修改的大森公式是迄今为止对序列衰减的最好描述,据此可对序列衰减特征进行定量表述。大森公式本质上是一种典型的现象统计模型,但由于其参数少、计算简单,并且确实能够反映序列衰减的总体特征,因而在实际中应用广泛。ETAS模型考虑了具有统计自相似特征的次级余震激发问题,次级余震激发强度与父地震强度有关,这在物理过程方面对大森公式进行了大大的拓展。由于考虑了次级余震的激发问题,ETAS模型不但在余震序列研究方面比修改的大森公式有了明显的进展,而且在诸如平静检测、余震群集剔除、背景地震活动评估、外因触发地震活动检测等方面也有诸多应用。BASS模型遵循修改的Bath定律,而ETAS模型遵循的是与父地震震级有关的相似率,这是BASS模型与ETAS模型的最大区别,因而相对ETAS模型而言,BASS模型是一种完全自相似的理想化模型,但目前基于BASS模型的应用研究尚不多见     

2019年四川长宁6.0级地震序列时空演化特征及其地震构造环境研究

地震序列类型能够直观地反映构造应力场环境、 地震构造及孕震环境介质的差异性。 主—余型地震多发生在相对均匀的介质环境, 而前—主—余型地震及震群型地震往往发生在复杂的构造环境。 2019年6月17日四川省宜宾市长宁县发生的6.0级地震余震活动总体呈NW向分布, 其南东段的余震呈相对单一的NW向条带状, 而北西段的余震活动呈现丛集的特征。 两段的地震序列类型也表现出明显的差异性, 南东段地震序列为主—余型, 序列衰减速度较快; 北西段地震序列为震群型, 序列初期衰减非常缓慢, 余震丰富。 此次6.0级地震序列发生在长宁—双河大背斜上, 该复式背斜主要由多个次级褶皱构造和不同走向的伴生断层组成, 结构复杂。 长宁6.0级地震序列的分段性特征表明, 该地震序列不是发生在单一的断裂构造上, 为多个构造级联破裂所导致的复合型地震序列。 此外, 序列北西段余震的深度逐渐变深, 可能预示着该区域受华蓥山断裂带活动的影响, 地震序列对华蓥山断裂带未来地震活动的影响应引起关注。     

A quantitative study of some aftershock sequences in greece

Temporal features of the aftershock activities following twelve moderate shallow earthquakes in Greece have been studied quantitatively, by making use of the modified Omori's formula and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC).Although the earthquake sequences occurred in different seismotectonic regions in Greece, similar seismic patterns before the occurrence of large aftershocks have been observed. Aftershock activity shows an appreciable decrease from the level expected from the modified Omori formula before the occurrence of the large aftershock. Also in some cases, the aftershock activity recovers to a normal level or increases beyond it prior to the occurrence of the large aftershock, if the aftershock activity is monitored immediately after the occurrence of the main shock. In such case, the observed pattern may be useful in predicting a large aftershock.     

2007年宁洱6.4级地震序列精定位

Five mobile digital seismic stations were set up by the Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province near the epicenter of the main shock after the Ning’er M6.4 earthquake on June 3, 2007. In this paper, the aftershock sequence of the Ning’er M6.4 earthquake is relocated by using the double difference earthquake location method. The data is from the 5 mobile digital seismic stations and the permanent Simao seismic station. The results show that the length of the aftershock sequence is 40km and the width is 30km, concentrated obviously at the lateral displacement area between the Pu’er fault and the NNE-trending faults, with the majority occurring on the Pu’er fault around the main shock. The depths of aftershocks are from 2km to 12km, and the predominant distribution is in the depth of 8～10km. The mean depth is 7.9km. The seismic fault dips to the northwest revealed from the profile parallel to this aftershock sequence, which is identical to the dip of the secondary fault of the NE-trending Menglian-Mojiang fault in the earthquake area. There are more earthquakes concentrated in the northwest segment than in the southeast segment, which is perhaps related to the underground medium and faults. The depth profile of the earthquake sequence shows that the relocated earthquakes are mainly located near the Pu’er fault and the seismic faults dip to the southwest, consistent with the dip of the west branch of the Pu’er fault. In all, the fault strike revealed by earthquake relocations matches well with the strike in the focal mechanism solutions. The main shock is in the top of the aftershock sequence and the aftershocks are symmetrically distributed, showing that faulting was complete in both the NE and SW directions.     

A probabilistic framework for quantification of aftershock ground‐motion hazard in California: Methodology and parametric study

This paper presents a proposed method of aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA) similar to conventional ‘mainshock’ PSHA in that it estimates the likelihoods of ground motion intensity (in terms of peak ground accelerations, spectral accelerations or other ground motion intensity measures) due to aftershocks following a mainshock occurrence. This proposed methodology differs from the conventional mainshock PSHA in that mainshock occurrence rates remain constant for a conventional (homogeneous Poisson) earthquake occurrence model, whereas aftershock occurrence rates decrease with increased elapsed time from the initial occurrence of the mainshock. In addition, the aftershock ground motion hazard at a site depends on the magnitude and location of the causative mainshock, and the location of aftershocks is limited to an aftershock zone, which is also dependent on the location and magnitude of the initial mainshock. APSHA is useful for post‐earthquake safety evaluation where there is a need to quantify the rates of occurrence of ground motions caused by aftershocks following the initial rupture. This knowledge will permit, for example, more informed decisions to be made for building tagging and entry of damaged buildings for rescue, repair or normal occupancy. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relative Seismic Quiescence Before Large Aftershocks

--In terms of the modified Omori's formula and Akaike's Information Criterion, thirteen aftershock sequences have been analysed quantitatively, to check if any anomalous change of seismic activity took place before the occurrence of the largest aftershock. The analysis follows the method proposed by . The epicentre distribution of the main shocks covers the Aegean Sea (Greece) area and the surrounding regions. The earthquakes occurred from 1988 to 1998.¶Although difficulties existed for a quantitative treatment of seismic quiescence, the results of the temporal analysis of the aftershock activities seem to be promising. In eight of thirteen cases the observed temporal pattern is similar. The aftershock activity decreases significantly before the occurrence of the largest aftershock, with respect to the level expected according to the modified Omori's formula. Thereafter, the activity recovers to its previous level just before or immediately after the occurrence of the main aftershock. Moreover, an estimation of the reliability of the method is made, based on the results of this study as well as of previous similar investigations. From a total of 41 aftershock sequences which have been analysed following Matsu'ura's method, 29 of them (71%) show a remarkable relative quiescence before the occurrence of the main shock.¶Although it is difficult to construct a model which explains the precursory pattern, the real time monitoring and check for seismic quiescence could at least contribute to a 'qualitative' prediction of the largest aftershock which could at times be as large and disastrous as the main shock.     

1977年5月12日宁河地震烈度明显偏低的探讨

1977年5月12日宁河6.6级地震的震中烈度较之震级相当的其他地震的震中烈度明显地偏低。为了阐明这种现象,由P波初动半周期及振幅求得了该区不同时期内的品质因数（Q值）及小震震源参数,并重新校对了这次地震以及1976年11月15日宁河6.9级地震的宏观及微观参数。分析结果表明:这次地震震中烈度异常低是因为1976年11月15日6.9级地震后,该区介质的品质因数大幅度下降,同时这个地震的震源深度比6.9级地震的震源深度约深5公里。品质因数和震源深度的综合效应可导致震中烈度降低近一度。