A Study of the Frequency of Occurrence of Large-Fluence Solar Proton Events and the Strength of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field

It has been shown previously that the number of very-large-fluence solar proton events inferred for the period since 1561 were more frequent at times of low solar activity (e.g., following the recovery from the Maunder minimum), than in the present epoch of high solar activity. An inverse dependence is demonstrated between the probability of observation of the very large-fluence solar proton events and the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field derived from empirical predictions. Using the observed dependence, it is predicted and demonstrated that large-fluence solar proton events have been observed at Earth more frequently near the recurrent minima of the solar activity cycle in the past than during the present epoch. We show that these results are explicable in terms of the linear dependence of the Alfvén velocity upon the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field, leading to higher shock compression ratios in the past. These results indicate that this aspect of “solar weather” will be significantly influenced by the prevailing strength of the interplanetary magnetic field, and that recurrence of solar conditions similar to those of the solar activity minimum of solar cycles 12–14 (1878.9–1913.6) would be accompanied by a factor of ∼4 increase in the occurrence of large-fluence solar proton events.     

Enhancement of Solar Energetic Particles During a Shock – Magnetic Cloud Interacting Complex Structure

The behavior of solar energetic particles (SEPs) in a shock – magnetic cloud interacting complex structure observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft on 5 November 2001 is analyzed. A strong shock causing magnetic field strength and solar wind speed increases of about 41 nT and 300 km s⁻¹, respectively, propagated within a preceding magnetic cloud (MC). It is found that an extraordinary SEP enhancement appeared at the high-energy (≥10 MeV) proton intensities and extended over and only over the entire period of the shock – MC structure passing through the spacecraft. Such SEP behavior is much different from the usual picture that the SEPs are depressed in MCs. The comparison of this event with other top SEP events of solar cycle 23 (2000 Bastille Day and 2003 Halloween events) shows that such an enhancement resulted from the effects of the shock – MC complex structure leading to the highest ≥10 MeV proton intensity of solar cycle 23. Our analysis suggests that the relatively isolated magnetic field configuration of MCs combined with an embedded strong shock could significantly enhance the SEP intensity; SEPs are accelerated by the shock and confined into the MC. Further, we find that the SEP enhancement at lower energies happened not only within the shock – MC structure but also after it, probably owing to the presence of a following MC-like structure. This is consistent with the picture that SEP fluxes could be enhanced in the magnetic topology between two MCs, which was proposed based on numerical simulations by Kallenrode and Cliver (Proc. 27th ICRC 8, 3318, 2001b).     

Similarities and Dissimilarities between the Variations of CME and Other Solar Parameters at Different Heliographic Latitudes and Time Scales

From the LASCO CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) catalog, the occurrence frequencies of all CMEs (all strong and weak CMEs, irrespective of their widths) were calculated for 3-month intervals and their 12-month running means determined for cycle 23 (1996 – 2007) and were compared with those of other solar parameters. The annual values of all-CME frequency were very well correlated (+ 0.97) with sunspot numbers, but several other parameters also had similarly high correlations. Comparisons of 12-month running means indicated that the sunspot numbers were very well correlated with solar electromagnetic radiations (Lyman-α, 2800-MHz flux, coronal green line index, solar flare indices, and X-ray background); but for corpuscular radiations [proton fluxes, solar energetic particles (SEP), CMEs, interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), and stream interaction regions (SIR)] and solar open magnetic fields, the correlations were lower. A notable feature was the appearance of two peaks during 2000 – 2002, and those double peaks in different parameters matched approximately except for proton fluxes and SEP and SIR frequencies. When hemispheric intensities were considered, north – south asymmetries appeared, more in some parameters than in others. When intensities in smaller latitude belts (10°) were compared, sunspot group numbers (SGN) were found to be confined mostly to latitudes within ± 30° of the solar equator, showing two peaks in all latitude belts, and during the course of the 11-year cycle, the double peaks shifted from middle to equatorial solar latitudes, just as seen in the Maunder butterfly diagrams. In contrast, CME frequency was comparable at all latitude belts (including high, near-polar latitudes), having more than two peaks in almost all latitude belts, and the peaks were almost simultaneous in all latitude belts. Thus, the matching of SGN peaks with those of CME peaks was poor. Incidentally, the CME frequency data for all events (all widths) after 2003 are not comparable to earlier data, owing to inclusion of very weak (narrow) CMEs in later years. The frequencies are comparable with earlier data only for widths exceeding about 70°.     

THE BASTILLE DAY (14 JULY 2000) EVENT IN HISTORICAL LARGE SUN–EARTH CONNECTION EVENTS

One of the large Sun–Earth connection events in solar cycle 23 occurred between 14 and 16 July 2000. Anomalies occurring on several satellites were reported in association with this event. Statistical study of extreme events is important not only for a view of space weather but for seeking ways to predict such kinds of large events. The Bastille Day event was characterized by a large flux (24 000 p.f.u. at its maximum) of solar energetic protons and a fast average transit speed of approximately 1500 km s⁻¹ of the interplanetary disturbance. A geomagnetic Kp index of more than 9 was observed after an interval of approximately eleven years since 1989. We found that return periods of extreme space weather (e.g., large flares, solar energetic proton events, and large geomagnetic storms) satisfied the Weibull distribution.     

Proton Enhancements and Their Relation to the X-Ray Flares During the Three Last Solar Cycles

Energetic proton measurements obtained from the GOES and IMP-8 satellites as well as from ground-based neutron monitors are compared with the GOES soft X-ray measurements of the associated solar flares for the period 1975–2003. The present study investigates a broad range of phenomenology relating proton events to flares (with some references to related interplanetary disturbances), including correlations of occurrence, intensities, durations and timing of both the particle event and the flare as well as the role of the heliographic location of the designated active region. 1144 proton events of > 10 MeV energy were selected from this 28-year period. Owing primarily to the low particle flux threshold employed more than half of this number was found to be reliably connected with an X-ray flare. The statistical analysis indicates that the probability and magnitude of the near-Earth proton enhancement depends critically on the flare's importance and its heliolongitude. In this study all flares of X-ray importance > X5 and located in the most propitious heliolongitude range, 15^∘W to 75^∘W, were succeeded by a detectable proton enhancement. It was also found that the heliolongitude frequently determines the character of the proton event time profile. In addition to intensity, duration and timing, proton events were found to be related to the other flare properties such as lower temperatures and longer loop lengths.     

Cosmic-Ray Variations During the Two Greatest Bursts of Solar Activity in the 23rd Solar Cycle

During two extreme bursts of solar activity in March–April 2001 and October–November 2003, the ground-based neutron monitor network recorded a series of outstanding events distinguished by their magnitude and unusual peculiarities. The important changes that lead to increased activity initiated not with the sunspot appearance, but with the large-scale solar magnetic field reconfiguration. A series of strong and moderate magnetic storms and powerful proton events (including ground-level enhancements, GLE) were registered during these periods. The largest and most productive in the 23rd solar cycle, active region 486, generated a significant series of solar flares among which the 4 November 2003 flare (X28/3B) was the most powerful X-ray solar event ever observed. The fastest arrival of the interplanetary disturbance from the Sun (after August 1972) and the highest solar wind velocity and IMF intensity were recorded during these events. Within 1 week, three GLEs of solar cosmic rays were registered by the neutron monitor network (28 and 29 October and 2 November 2003). In this work, we perform a tentative analysis of a number of the effects seen in cosmic rays during these two periods, using the neutron monitor network and other relevant data.     

The Use of Geophysical Data in Studies of the Historical Solar-Terrestrial Environment

Recent studies of the solar-terrestrial environment for the past 500 years have necessitated the use of a variety of historical databases: nitrates in ice cores, knowledge of large volcanic eruptions, sunspot numbers, mid-latitude aurora and geomagnetic records. The nitrate data are being used to identify large solar proton fluence events. The volcanic record helps to provide time markers for the ice core. The records of major geomagnetic storms and mid-latitude aurora have been used for additional identification. We also know that the Earth’s magnetic field is evolving with a present rapid decrease in magnitude. In addition the wandering magnetic pole must be considered in ascertaining what was “mid latitude” in historic times versus “mid latitude” in 2000. We illustrate how these databases are being used in recent studies of historic solar proton events.     

On the ground level enhancement beginning

Based on our analysis of the data fromthe global network of neutronmonitors for several events, we have found the times of the first increases in count rate at individual stations that precede the main solar cosmic-ray enhancement. The onset time of proton acceleration at the Sun has been determined from the appearance of a broad gamma-ray line with its maximum near 70 MeV that is generated during the decay of neutral pions, which, in turn, are produced when protons with energies above 300 MeV interact with the solar atmosphere. The time of the first recording of energetic protons at the Earth is delayed relative to the time at which these protons appeared at the Sun by 60–300 s, i.e., by a value comparable to the difference between the direct photon and particle propagation times. At least two conclusions follow from the existence of such “precursors”. First, the protons begin to escape from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space immediately after their acceleration. Second, some of the protons traverse a path shorter than the nominal length of interplanetary magnetic field lines.     

Post-Impulsive-Phase Acceleration in a Wide Range of Solar Longitudes

We have analyzed five solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed aboard the SOHO spacecraft during 1996–1997. All events were associated with impulsive soft X-ray flares, Type II radio bursts and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Most attention is concentrated on the SEP acceleration during the first 100 minutes after the flare impulsive phase, post-impulsive-phase acceleration, being observed in eruptions centered at different solar longitudes. As a representative pattern of a (nearly) well-connected event, we consider the west flare and CME of 9 July 1996 (S10 W30). Similarities and dissimilarities of the post-impulsive-phase acceleration at large heliocentric-angle distance from the eruption center are illustrated with the 24 September 1997 event (S31 E19). We conclude that the proton acceleration at intermediate scales, between flare acceleration and interplanetary CME-driven shock acceleration, significantly contributes to the production of ≳10 MeV protons. This post-impulsive-phase acceleration seems to be caused by the CME lift-off.     

Dependence of the SCR proton flux estimate on radio burst parameters

We present results suggesting that the accuracy of estimating the solar cosmic-ray (SCR) proton flux from μ-burst parameters is much higher for proton events characterized by a low level of post-burst increase (PBI) in the μ-burst flux, a powerful decametric (DCM) component, and a small time shift (Δt < 9 min) of the DCM burst maximum relative to the μ-burst maximum. These three parameters are probably related between themselves, since events characterized by a small Δt have a very low PBI level. We show that the accuracy of estimating the proton flux depends to a greater extent on Δt than on the intensity of the DCM component. For approximately half of the events from the investigated sample, the accuracy of estimating the proton flux approaches the maximum possible accuracy from μ-burst parameters.     

Analysis of the Properties of Super Solar Proton Events and Associated Phenomena

The solar flares, the speeds of shocks propagated in the solar-terrestrial space and driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the heliographic longitudes and Carrington longitudes of source regions, and the geomagnetic storms, which are accompanied by the super solar proton events with a peak ?ux equal to or exceeding 10 000 pfu, have been studied by using the data of ground-based and space observations. The results show that the heliographic longitudes of source regions of super solar proton events distributed in the range from E30? to W75°. The Carrington longitudes of source regions of super solar proton events distributed in the two longitudinal belts, 130°∼220° and 260°∼320°, respectively. All super solar proton events were accompanied by major solar flares and fast CMEs. The averaged speeds of shocks propagated from the sun to the Earth were greater than 1 200 km/s. Eight super solar proton events were followed by major geomagnetic storms (Dst≤−100 nT), except that one super solar proton event was followed by a geomagnetic storm with the geomagnetic activity index Dst=−96 nT, a little smaller than that of major geomagnetic storms.     

A Broadband Solar Radio Spectrometer and Some New Observational Results

A broadband solar radio spectrometer with a bandwidth of about 7 GHz has been developed in China for solar maximum 23. This work is a cooperative project of Beijing Astronomical Observatory (BAO), Purple Mountain Observatory (PMO), Yunnan Observatory (YNO), and Nanjing University. The spectrometer of PMO worked in the waveband of 4.5–7.5 GHz, that of BAO in 1–2 GHz, 2.6–3.8 GHz, and 5.2–7.6 GHz, and that of YNO in 0.7–1.5 GHz. The spectrometer of PMO is a multichannel and frequency-agile one with a time resolution of 1–5 ms and a frequency resolution of 10 MHz. It started to operate in August 1999 and since then more than 300 spectral events have been observed, and some type III or type III-like structures have also been found. In this paper, some selected typical events, for example, the events on 25 August 1999 and 27 October 1999, are presented, and some new observed features are also described and discussed.     

Characteristics of CMEs associated with solar flares and DH type II radio bursts based on source position

We studied the characteristics of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) associated with solar flares and Deca-Hectometric (DH) type II radio bursts, based on source position during 23rd solar cycle (1997–2007). We classified these CME events into three groups using solar flare locations as, (i) disk events (0–30^∘); (ii) intermediate events (31–60^∘) and (iii) limb events (61–90^∘). Main results from this studies are, (i) the number of CMEs associated with solar flares and DH-type IIs decreases as the source position approaches from disk to limb, (ii) most of the DH CMEs are halo (72%) in disk events and the number of occurrence of halo CMEs decreases from disk to limb, (iii) the average width and speed of limb events (164^∘ and 1447 km s⁻¹) are higher than those of disk events (134^∘ and 1035 km s⁻¹) and intermediate events (146^∘ and 1170 km s⁻¹) and (iv) the average accelerations for disk, intermediate and limb events are −8.2 m s⁻², −10.3 m s⁻² and −4.5 m s⁻² respectively. These analysis of CMEs properties show more dependency on longitude and it gives strong evidence for projection effect.     

Near-Earth Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 23 (1996 – 2009): Catalog and Summary of Properties

In a previous study (Cane and Richardson, J. Geophys. Res. 108(A4), SSH6-1, 2003), we investigated the occurrence of interplanetary coronal mass ejections in the near-Earth solar wind during 1996 – 2002, corresponding to the increasing and maximum phases of solar cycle 23, and provided a “comprehensive” catalog of these events. In this paper, we present a revised and updated catalog of the ≈300 near-Earth ICMEs in 1996 – 2009, encompassing the complete cycle 23, and summarize their basic properties and geomagnetic effects. In particular, solar wind composition and charge state observations are now considered when identifying the ICMEs. In general, these additional data confirm the earlier identifications based predominantly on other solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters. However, the boundaries of ICME-like plasma based on charge state/composition data may deviate significantly from those based on conventional plasma/magnetic field parameters. Furthermore, the much studied “magnetic clouds”, with flux-rope-like magnetic field configurations, may form just a substructure of the total ICME interval.     

Quasi-Periodic Releases of Streamer Blobs and Velocity Variability of the Slow Solar Wind near the Sun

We search for persistent and quasi-periodic release events of streamer blobs during 2007 with the Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and assess the velocity of the slow solar wind along the plasma sheet above the corresponding streamer by measuring the dynamic parameters of blobs. We find ten quasi-periodic release events of streamer blobs lasting for three to four days. In each day of these events, we observe three – five blobs. The results are in line with previous studies using data observed near the last solar minimum. Using the measured blob velocity as a proxy for that of the mean flow, we suggest that the velocity of the background slow solar wind near the Sun can vary significantly within a few hours. This provides an observational manifestation of the large velocity variability of the slow solar wind near the Sun.     

Evidence Linking Slow Solar Wind Streams to Long-Decay X-Ray Events

Outflow of slow solar wind from solar active regions has been reported in recent years by many different authors. Therefore, in this paper we have studied synoptic maps of the solar wind density (SWD) based on interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data for available parts of all the years 1991–1994 and 1997–2001 to verify correlations of maxima in SWD with sources in active regions. We have found convincing evidence that eruptive flares in active regions, and thus X-ray long-decay events (LDEs) in general, can produce short-lived enhancements of the SWD. However, we were not able to get statistically convincing evidence that active regions can be permanent sources of slow solar wind, and propose three possible reasons for this negative result.     

Study of Distribution and Asymmetry of Solar Active Prominences during Solar Cycle 23

In this article we present the results of a study of the spatial distribution and asymmetry of solar active prominences (SAP) for the period 1996 through 2007 (solar cycle 23). For more meaningful statistical analysis we analyzed the distribution and asymmetry of SAP in two subdivisions viz. Group1 (ADF, APR, DSF, CRN, CAP) and Group2 (AFS, ASR, BSD, BSL, DSD, SPY, LPS). The North – South (N – S) latitudinal distribution shows that the SAP events are most prolific in the 21° to 30° slice in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres; the East – West (E – W) longitudinal distribution study shows that the SAP events are most prolific (best observable) in the 81° to 90° slice in the Eastern and Western Hemispheres. It was found that the SAP activity during this cycle is low compared to previous solar cycles. The present study indicates that during the rising phase of the cycle the number of SAP events are roughly equal in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. However, activity in the Southern Hemisphere has been dominant since 1999. Our statistical study shows that the N – S asymmetry is more significant then the E – W asymmetry.     

Relationship of great soft X-ray flares with other solar activity phenomena

We present study of relationship of GSXR flares with Hα flares, hard X-ray (HXR) bursts, microwave (MW) bursts at 15.4 GHz, type II/IV radio bursts, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), protons flares (>10 MeV) and ground level enhancement (GLE) events we find that about 85.7%, 93%, 97%, 69%, 60%, 11.1%, 79%, 46%, and 23%% GSXR flares are related/associated with observed Hα flares, HXR bursts, MW bursts at 15.4 GHz, type II radio bursts, type IV radio bursts, GLE events, CMEs, halo CMEs, and proton flares (>10 MeV), respectively. In the paper we have studied the onset time delay of GSXR flares with Hα flares, HXR, and MW bursts which shows the during majority GSXR flares SXR emissions start before the Hα, HXR and MW emissions, respectively while during 15–20% of GSXR flares the SXR emissions start after the onset of Hα, HXT and MW emissions, respectively indicating two types of solar flares. The, onset time interval between SXR emissions and type II radio bursts, type IV radio bursts, GLE events CMEs, halo CMEs, and protons flares are 1–15 min, 1–20 min, 21–30 min, 21–40 min, 21–40 min, and 1–4 hrs, respectively. Following the majority results we are of the view that the present investigations support solar flares models which suggest flare triggering first in the corona and then move to chromospheres/ photosphere to starts emissions in other wavelengths. The result of the present work is largely consistent with “big flare syndrome” proposed by Kahler (1982).     

Longitudinal distribution of PCA sources on the sun

For 181 PCA's recorded during the years 1956–1969 the association with flares is studied. Both the number of events which cannot be associated with any flare on the visible hemisphere, as well as the longitude distribution of identified proton flares, lead to the conclusion that 25–30% of PCA's are caused by flares behind the western solar limb. PCA's of this kind are mostly small. During the investigated years no PCA > 13 dB and possibly no PCA > 8.5 dB were caused by flares behind the limb, while hardly 60% of PCA's < l dB had their origin on the visible hemisphere. While the sources of GLE's and of PCA's in general, are centered around 50°W which corresponds to the average curvature of the magnetic field lines in interplanetary space, the strongest PCA's (> 8.5 dB) show an anomalous longitude distribution centered around ∼ 20°W. It is suggested that this anomaly may be a consequence of the fact that in strong PCA events the kinetic energy density of protons below 100 MeV becomes comparable to the magnetic energy density in space, thus leading to a ‘straightening’ of the magnetic field lines.     

Interplanetary magnetic clouds and cosmic ray modulation

We studied the cosmic ray intensity variation due to interplanetary magnetic clouds during an unusual class of low amplitude anisotropic wave train events. The low amplitude anisotropic wave train events in cosmic ray intensity have been identified using the data of ground based Deep River neutron monitor and studied during the period 1981–1994. Even though the occurrence of low amplitude anisotropic wave trains does not depend on the onset of interplanetary magnetic clouds, but the possibility of occurrence of these events cannot be overlooked during the periods of the interplanetary magnetic cloud events. It is observed that the solar wind velocity remains higher (> 300) than normal and the interplanetary magnetic field B remains lower than normal on the onset of the interplanetary magnetic cloud during the passage of low amplitude wave trains. It is also noted that the proton density remains significantly low during high solar wind velocity, which is expected. The north south component of interplanetary magnetic field Bz turns southward to one day before the arrival of cloud and remains in the southward direction after the arrival of a cloud. During these events the cosmic ray intensity is found to increase with increase of solar wind velocity. The superposed epoch analysis of cosmic ray intensity for these events during the onset of interplanetary magnetic clouds reveals that the decrease in cosmic ray intensity starts not at the onset of the cloud but after a few days. The cosmic ray intensity increases on arrival of the magnetic cloud and decreases gradually after the passage of the magnetic cloud.