Pastoralists’ perception of and adaptation strategies for climate change: associations with observed climate variability

Natural Hazards - Although climate change is a universal phenomenon, its indicators and manifestations are entirely local, as are adaptation choices, strategies, and practices. Based on...     

Assessing Taiwan’s energy security under climate change

This paper intends to assess Taiwan’s energy security situation under current and future development of global environment. We construct a static computable general equilibrium model for Taiwan to fulfill our purpose. The model is benchmarked in 2006 and includes detailed specification of power generation technology and renewable energy producing sectors. It also distinguishes sources of imported energy to reflect Taiwan’s current policy of diversifying sources of supply for energy. Simulations using the model have been focused on both changes in energy price and quantity of energy supply under specific specifications of the development of renewable energy technologies and CO₂ emission reduction requirements. Our simulation results demonstrate that energy security and climate change mitigation interact each other, and under a specific emission reduction target, the effect of exogenous energy shocks on the economy will be partially absorbed by the internal adjustment mechanism of the economy.     

Mineral aerosol： Connections to climate and human health

Mineral dust is a major component of the global aerosol, and the importance of dust for regional climate and biogeochemical cycles has become increasingly apparent. By scattering and absorbing radiant energy and through their effects on clouds, dust and other aerosol particles can cause climatic effects that affect ecosystem function and human health. Iron oxide minerals in the atmosphere are especially important in this regard because they absorb solar radiation and are involved in redox reactions. Furthermore, dust particles that settle out of the atmosphere provide nutrients, including iron, to marine ecosystems and other nutrients to terrestrial ecosystems. New technologies have shown that dust reacts in complex ways with other atmospheric constituents; indeed, this is one of the major revelations of recent dust research. Dust and other substances commonly occur in the same air parcels, but bulk chemical methods do not show whether the particles are internally mixed （multiple components mixed in single particles） or externally mixed （admixtures of different particles）. Electron beam techniques have shown internal mixtures of dust and black carbon, but the implications of this for climate forcing are still unresolved. Studies conducted with an aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer suggest preferential reactions between dust, sulfur and nitrogen oxides, and chlorine. These reactions have important implications for particle formation and solubility, and for the particles＇ health effects. The activity of radionuclides, including Pu, co-vary with atmospheric dust loads, and while this is not a serious health concern, the emerging view is that pure dust is rarely sampled. While dust can affect ecosystems through climate, the production of dust also is influenced by humans, especially land-use practices that affect vegetative cover. Indeed, the issue of the relative importance of natural vs. anthropogenically-driven changes in dust budgets remains a subject of debate although several recent studies indicate natural variability dominates.     

Reassessment of global climate risk: non-compensatory or compensatory?

Natural Hazards - Evidence shows the global climate will continue to change over this century and beyond. A clear understanding of the climate change risk is suggested to be the foundation of the...     

22-Ma eolian deposits in China and long-term climate changes

The history of eolian dust deposition in northern China has been traced back to 22 million years ago （Ma） and the combination of different eolian formations provides a nearly continuous terrestrial climate record since the early Neogene. The spatial distribution of environmental indicators define a roughly EW zonal climate pattern in Asia throughout the Paleogene, attributable to a circulation pattern dominated by a Planetary Wind System （PWS）. A major rearrangement occurred near the Miocene/Oligocene boundary, characterized by a replacement of the zonal PWS by a monsoon circulation similar to that of the present day. This event is also marked by the onset of loess deposition in northern China. The Asian summer monsoon was likely rather weak during the Paleogene. The loess deposition and formation of numerous well-developed paleosols since the Early Miocene indicate that the following features of the modem-day circulation already existed 22 Ma ago： sizeable deserts in the Asian inlands as dust sources, the winter monsoon as dust carrier, and an energetic summer monsoon as a supply of moisture. Uplift of the Himalayan-Tibetan complex and changes in land-sea distribution were likely responsible for these joint changes in circulation and aridity. From 22 to 6 Ma, loess accumulation rates were much lower, suggesting moderate levels of ar/dity and winter monsoon strength. Evolution of the aridity was not strongly correlative with the cooling trends indicated by marine oxygen isotope records, suggesting a smaller impact of global cooling on drying of the Asian interior during this time interval. However, the general aridification history since about 6 Ma matches the ongoing high-latitude cooling and the consequent expansion of Arctic sea-ice/ice sheets. Some increases in aridification also coincide with proposed uplift of portions of the Tibetan Plateau.     

Soil carbon stock of the Central-East Asia in the climate warming

Water samples from the Wujiang River, a typical karst river system, were analyzed for major ion concentrations and δ^34S values of dissolved sulfate in order to identify the sources of sulfate, quantify the sulfate export flux and understand the role of sulfur cycling in chemical weathering rate of carbonate. Spatial variations in sulfate concentration and sulfur isotopic composition of tributaries over the catchment area are obvious, allowing to decipher S sources between rocks and atmosphere. According to the variations in sulfate concentration and isotopic composition, it is inferred that sulfate ions in the upper-reach river waters may have three sources, rain water, sulfate resultant from oxidation of pyrite in coal, and sulfate from sulfide deposits. In the lower reaches, the S isotopic composition of the samples lies mainly on a mixing trend between evaporite sulfate and rainwater sulfate, the contribution of sulfate from oxidation of pyrite being lesser. A pronounced seasonal variation in both content and isotopic composition of sulfate characterizes the Wujiang River. The average sulfate concentration of the waters is 0.65 mmol/L in winter, 0.17 mmol/L higher than that in summer. River water δ^34S values range from -15.7‰ to 18.9‰ in winter, while the δ^34S values of river waters in summer vary to a lesser extent than in winter, from -11.5‰ to 8.3‰. The δ^34S values of the main stream range from -6.7‰ to -3.9‰ in summer, averaging 3‰ lower than in winter. This indicates that in summer, when the discharge increases, the contribution of a source enriched in light isotopes to the atmosphere or the oxidation of pyrite in coal is more important.     

What controls dead-ice melting under different climate conditions? A discussion

In the geological record, hummocky dead-ice moraines represent the final product of the melt-out of dead-ice. Processes and rates of dead-ice melting in ice-cored moraines and at debris-covered glaciers are commonly believed to be governed by climate and debris-cover properties. Here, backwasting rates from 14 dead-ice areas are assessed in relation to mean annual air temperature, mean summer air temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean summer precipitation, and annual sum of positive degree days. The highest correlation was found between backwasting rate and mean annual air temperature. However, the correlation between melt rates and climate parameters is low, stressing that processes and topography play a major role in governing the rates of backwasting. The rates of backwasting from modern glacial environments should serve as input to de-icing models for ancient dead-ice areas in order to assess the mode and duration of deposition.A challenge for future explorations of dead-ice environments is to obtain long-term records of field-based monitoring of melt progression. Furthermore, many modern satellite-borne sensors have high potentials for recordings of multi-temporal Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) for detection and quantification of changes in dead-ice environments. In recent years, high-accuracy DEMs from airborne laser scanning altimetry (LiDAR) are emerging as an additional data source. However, time series of high-resolution aerial photographs remain essential for both visual inspection and high-resolution stereographic DEM production.     

Behaviour of REE during weathering of granite in a tropical climate

Weathering is essentially a leaching process and thus, one way of determining the extent of weathering is to monitor the mobility of different elements. Rate of loss of elements in a weathering profile can be determined by comparing the concentrations of …     

The relationship between shrink–swell occurrence and climate in south-east England

Climate change is one of the biggest environmental problems that the UK faces. Increased understanding of the impacts is vital to enable adaption to, and mitigation of, the consequences. This analysis and modelling of the relationship between climate and shrink–swell behaviour has been carried out to increase understanding of the potential consequences of changes in precipitation and temperature on ground movement in the south-east of England during the coming century.Analysis of historical climate data and comparison with subsidence claims data demonstrated the relatively close relationship of subsidence with two years’ previous precipitation. Boundaries are identified, with precipitation above 394 mm for the previous two years, leading to a lower level subsidence claims, and below 350 mm leading to a higher incidence. Combined with this inverse relationship, a direct relationship with temperature is identified, with a rise above 22.6 °C in the mean maximum temperature for an accounting quarter leading to a peak in claims.To model a projection for susceptibility of south-east England to future climate change, UKCIP02 forecast climate data were used, and combined with the British Geological Survey national shrink–swell GeoSure geohazard dataset. Preliminary results demonstrate the most noticeable increases in subsidence susceptibility are within the areas underlain by the London Clay Formations, with other clay-rich formations also being identified, including glacial till.Despite this being a preliminary model, with large amounts of future work identified, these results are significant, providing an insight into areas of higher susceptibility and the potential for changes in ground movement for the coming century.     

Relationship of underground water level and climate in Northwest China’s inland basins under the global climate change: Taking the Golmud River Catchment as an example

To identify the response of groundwater level variation to global climate change in Northwest China’s inland basins, the Golmud River Catchment was chosen as a case in this paper. Approaches of time series analysis and correlation analysis were adopted to investigate the variation of groundwater level influenced by global climate change from 1977 to 2017. Results show that the temperature in the Golmud River Catchment rose 0.57°C every 10 years. It is highly positive correlated with global climate temperature, with a correlation coefficient, 0.87. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation were both increased. Generally, groundwater levels increased from 1977 to 2017 in all phreatic and confined aquifers and the fluctuation became more violent. Most importantly, extreme precipitation led to the fact that groundwater level rises sharply, which induced city waterlogging. However, no direct evidence shows that normal precipitation triggered groundwater level rise, and the correlation coefficients between precipitation data from Golmud meteorological station located in the Gobi Desert and groundwater level data of five observation wells are 0.13, 0.02, –0.11, 0.04, and –0.03, respectively. This phenomenon could be explained as that the main recharge source of groundwater is river leakage in the alluvial-pluvial Gobi plain because of the high total head of river water and goodness hydraulic conductivity of the vadose zone. Data analysis shows that glacier melting aggravated because of local temperature increased. As a result, runoff caused groundwater levels to ascend from 1977 to 2017. Correlation coefficients of two groundwater wells observation data and runoff of Golmud River are 0.80 and 0.68. The research results will contribute to handling the negative effects of climate change on groundwater for Northwestern China.© 2021 China Geology Editorial Office.     

Spatial pattern of climate change and farmer–herder conflict vulnerabilities in Nigeria

GeoJournal - Climate change is recognised among the drivers of conflicts in developing regions but the growing studies on climate change–violent conflict nexus in Africa have paid little...     

Abrupt climate changes: from the past to the future – a review

 A review of climatic variability is given with a focus on abrupt changes during the last glacial. Evidence from palaeoclimatic archives suggests that these were most likley due to reorganisations of the atmosphere–ocean system. The mechanisms responsible for these changes are presented. Their implication for future climate changes is discussed in light of recent climate model simulations. Received: 24 June 1998 / Accepted: 27 November 1998     

Recent Arctic ozone depletion: Is there an impact of climate change?

After the well-reported record loss of Arctic stratospheric ozone of up to 38% in the winter 2010–2011, further large depletion of 27% occurred in the winter 2015–2016. Record low winter polar vortex temperatures, below the threshold for ice polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, persisted for one month in January 2016. This is the first observation of such an event and resulted in unprecedented dehydration/denitrification of the polar vortex. Although chemistry–climate models (CCMs) generally predict further cooling of the lower stratosphere with the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), significant differences are found between model results indicating relatively large uncertainties in the predictions. The link between stratospheric temperature and ozone loss is well understood and the observed relationship is well captured by chemical transport models (CTMs). However, the strong dynamical variability in the Arctic means that large ozone depletion events like those of 2010–2011 and 2015–2016 may still occur until the concentrations of ozone-depleting substances return to their 1960 values. It is thus likely that the stratospheric ozone recovery, currently anticipated for the mid-2030s, might be significantly delayed. Most important in order to predict the future evolution of Arctic ozone and to reduce the uncertainty of the timing for its recovery is to ensure continuation of high-quality ground-based and satellite ozone observations with special focus on monitoring the annual ozone loss during the Arctic winter.     

Assessing adaptive capacity within regional climate change vulnerability studies—an Alpine example

Adaptive capacity represents a crucial component in the assessment of a region’s vulnerability to climate change. The term adaptive capacity is only fuzzily defined, and determining it is difficult and often neglected in previous studies. In this paper, a newly developed adaptive capacity concept is introduced, with a respective indicator/criteria system and simple aggregation methods. The approach allows for adaptive capacity assessments at 3 levels of specificity (impact specific, sector specific and regional generic). The selection of indicators is tailor-made for Alpine regions, where the approach has been widely tested. The presented approach requires extended stakeholder involvement, namely for the evaluation of the indicators. The overall effort needed for its implementation remains reasonable. The outcome of the assessment exercise does not provide precise objective measurements, but remains an indicative estimation due to the fuzziness and complexity of the underlying concept. The conceptual approach is transferable to other mountain areas and beyond, the selection of indicators however is only valid for the Alpine region. The showcase presents results from the adaptive capacity assessment in the region of South Tyrol, where the method was carried out as part of a climate change vulnerability study. The outcomes indicate a number of issues that future actions could address in order to improve adaptive capacity in the region, namely in the field of prevention measures against meteorological extremes and natural hazards.     

Impact of changing climate and land use on the hydrogeology of southeast Australia ∗

Anthropogenic climate change is the Earth's most serious large-scale environmental concern. While the projected changes of global temperatures, rainfall and surface water have been modelled in a sophisticated manner, the impact on groundwater resources is much less well constrained. In southeast Australia, the decrease in rainfall amount and an increase in temperature that are predicted by climate models are generally assumed to reduce the amount of recharge to the groundwater systems. However, the increase in recharge that has resulted from clearing of the native vegetation will almost certainly produce a greater impact on the groundwater system, increasing quantity and potentially improving quality. Additionally, the impact on recharge of changes to rainfall frequency rather than just total amount is not well documented. Overall our understanding of the impacts of climate change on groundwater systems is insufficiently advanced to make firm predictions. Indirect impacts of climate change, particularly the projected increased demand for groundwater or surface water to supplement surface water supplies also will have a major impact that may be greater than the direct effect of climate change.     

ITCZ rather than ENSO signature for abrupt climate changes across the tropical Pacific?

Latitudinal movements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), analogous to its present-day seasonal shifts, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-type variability both potentially impacted rainfall changes at the millennial timescale during the last glacial period. In this study we compare tropical Pacific sedimentary records of paleoprecipitation to decipher which climate mechanism was responsible for the past rainfall changes. We find that latitudinal movements of the ITCZ are consistent with the observed rainfall patterns, challenging the ENSO hypothesis for explaining the rapid rainfall changes at low latitudes. The ITCZ-related mechanism appears to reflect large-scale atmospheric rearrangements over the tropical belt, with a pronounced Heinrich-Dansgaard/Oeschger signature. This observation is coherent with the simulated tropical rainfall anomalies induced by a weakening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in modeling experiments.