科学决策是业务系统建设持续发展的根本保证 ——国家气象中心数值预报业务系统建设回忆

回顾了中央气象台60年来,数值天气预报(NWP)业务系统的发展历程。指出NWP系统是一项气象工程系统建设,是多学科理论和技术相结合的结果。回顾了从目标方向、技术路线、工作方式、人才队伍培养以及土建设计等方面的科学决策和实践过程,阐述了科学决策是业务系统建设持续发展的根本保证。从建设事例中可以看到30年来NWP顺利发展的历史证明了科学发展观的正确性。     

卫星探测的大气资料对改进天气预报是渺茫的或是起关键作用?

人们取得卫星探测的大气温度和水汽资料已有20多年了.这些资料遍及全球,因此曾希望从卫星得到的探测资料使全球数值天气预报(NWP)有重大改进.1979年全球天气试验(GWE)期间用所提供的卫星探测资料进行的试验确实表明,它们对延伸预报有正的影响,在南半球尤其如此.令人惋惜的是自GWE以来,卫星探测资料的价值已明显下降了.我认为这在很大程度上是由于模式的改进,亦即与现在的NWP模式的垂直分辨率相比较,卫星资料的垂直分辨率差,而模式在这方面占优势.因为存在小尺度特征(可以由模式分辨的垂直尺度表示)的混淆现象,卫星资料甚至使分析/预报的业务质量有所下降.本文先从历史观点论述卫星探测资料在天气预报应用中价值降低的困境,亦即说明这些资料没有达到预期作用的原因.然后探求为扭转这种局面需要在卫星工艺学和应用技术方面的改进.     

台风试验陆地加密观测在数值天气预报中的作用

采用国家气象中心（NMC）有限区同化预报系统（HLAFS）和华北区域分析预报系统（NCAFS）的基本方案,选择“八五”期间台风试验期进行陆地测站特殊加密观测的两个台风个例作数值天气预报（NWP）试验,探讨这些资料在NWP中的作用。试验结果表明:陆地测站加密地面观测资料,对NMC的NWP系统的预报,尤其在较高分辨率情况下,具有较明显的改进作用。     

单部多普勒天气雷达风场反演及其在数值预报中的应用试验

针对1998年7月5日下午到夜间北京地区出现的一次强降雨过程, 采用“局部VAD法”, 对中国气象科学研究院多普勒雷达测得的1998年7月5日12:00UTC的径向风反演成水平风, 并将反演风应用到数值天气预报 (NWP) 同化系统中, 进行了同化预报试验。结果表明, 反演的雷达风基本符合事实, 将其应用到NWP中, 有助于分析和预报时空尺度较小的中尺度系统。     

卫星探测辐射率在数值天气预报中的直接应用

该文叙述在数值天气预报中直接应用辐射率而不经过反演的原因，变分法在辐射率直接应用中的作用，以及介绍变分问题计算中的伴随方法。还指出ATOVS辐射率同样可以在NWP中直接应用。最后，介绍业务NWP直接应用辐射率的情况。     

卫星探测的辐射率资料在数值天气预报中的直接应用

最近,在卫星探测资料和数值分析技术的研究中探索出在数值天气预报(NWP)系统中利用卫星资料的新途径。如果这些资料更直接地、而不是经由独立的温度和湿度反演廓线在NWP场中同化的话,预期可以从中获得更大的效益。本文概述英国气象局有关这一新方法背后的理论及实现这些思想的某些方面。     

AREM模式对0604、0605号台风的预报分析

卫星资料已大量应用于数值天气预报,占据了所用观测资料的主体并对数值天气预报效果的改善具有明显的作用.目前卫星资料的同化应用一方面在努力解决受地表辐射、云和降水影响的卫星观测资料的同化问题,以充分利用现有卫星资料并发挥其效能,同时发展适应伴随全球观测系统建立而带来大数量和多种类新类型卫星资料的同化应用.文章介绍了为满足卫星资料在数值天气预报中同化应用现状与发展而建立的两个卫星资料同化研究中心(JCSDA:Joint Center of Satellite Data Assimilation和NWP SAF:Satellite Applications Facility for Numerical Weather Prediction)的基本情况,并简要讨论我国数值天气预报中卫星资料同化应用.     

ROPP 1D偏折角算子的推导

在简要介绍无线电掩星(RO)观测及其应用的基础上,重点提供RO处理软件包ROPP一维偏折角观测算子的推导过程,以帮助RO数据用户加深对该算子创新性、先进性和精确性的了解,为高效优化应用RO数据以改善数值天气预报(NWP)提供参考。     

美国国家天气局降水预报技术水平的发展趋势

1.引言国家天气局(NWS)降水预报进展的程度,在过去20年一直有争论。其主要原因在于几乎不存在一致的降水预报技术的长期记录,缺乏对于预报效果长期记录的深入研究。本文讨论的重点是NWS所制作的各类降水预报精度的长期发展趋势。图1表明,国家气象中心(NMC)的两个业务数值天气预报(NWP)模式,北半球初始方程模式     

登陆热带气旋降水预报研究回顾与展望

重点围绕登陆热带气旋（LTC）降水预报研究进行了回顾和总结,指出针对LTC降水有三类预报技术：动力模式、统计方法和动力-统计结合的预报方法。以数值天气预报（NWP）模式为代表的预报技术对LTC降水的预报能力仍然非常有限。改进NWP模式预报误差的途径主要有两条：一是发展NWP模式;二是发展动力-统计结合的方法。分析表明,动力-统计相似预报是一项很有潜力的技术;针对现有研究中的不足,开展LTC降水动力-统计相似预报研究,探索减小数值模式LTC降水预报误差的有效方法,将是一个充满希望的研究领域和方向。     

数值天气预报中卫星资料同化应用现状和发展

卫星资料已大量应用于数值天气预报,占据了所用观测资料的主体并对数值天气预报效果的改善具有明显的作用。目前卫星资料的同化应用一方面在努力解决受地表辐射、云和降水影响的卫星观测资料的同化问题,以充分利用现有卫星资料并发挥其效能,同时发展适应伴随全球观测系统建立而带来大数量和多种类新类型卫星资料的同化应用。文章介绍了为满足卫星资料在数值天气预报中同化应用现状与发展而建立的两个卫星资料同化研究中心(JCSDA:Joint Center of Satellite Data Assimilation和NWP SAF:Satellite Applications Facility for Numerical Weather Prediction)的基本情况,并简要讨论我国数值天气预报中卫星资料同化应用。     

Chen-Chao Koo and the Early Numerical Weather Prediction Experiments in China

Although the first successful numerical weather prediction(NWP)project led by Charney and von Neumann is widely known,little is known by the international community about the development of NWP during the 1950s in China.Here,a detailed historical perspective on the early NWP experiments in China is provided.The leadership in NWP of the late Professor Chen-Chao Koo,a protége of C.G.Rossby at the University of Stockholm during the late 1940s and a key leader of modern meteorology(particularly of atmospheric dynamics and physics)in China during the 1950s?70s,is highlighted.The unique contributions to NWP by Koo and his students,such as the ideas of formulating NWP as an“evolution”problem,in which the past data over multiple time steps are utilized,rather than an initial-value problem,and on the cybernetic aspects of atmospheric processes,i.e.,regarding the motion of the atmosphere at various time scales as an optimal control system,are also emphasized.     

夏秋连旱转好雨天气分析预报系统研究

该系统与Micaps工作平台设置接口，利用新技术所提供的各种图表工具和信息，对数值预报（NWP）形势场进行逐日反查分析比较，归纳出一些与临汾地区出现好雨相关好的形势场。对这些（NWP）形势场与08时实时资料形势场对应分析，确定高空环流型、低层影响系统及各层预报指标；分析各层物理量场分布特征、卫星云图的不同种类云系结构演变规律等建立模型。系统投入业务运行以来效果良好，提高了转折性天气预报准确率。     

IMPACT STUDY ON THE CALCULATION OF VERTICAL VELOCITY IN DIFFERENT VERTICAL COORDINATE SYSTEMS

1 INTRODUCTION First, let’s have a review of various vertical coordinate systems used in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Richardson[1] (1922) first attempted to use the geometrical height z as the vertical coordinate system. Though geometrical height is easy to understand as a concept, it had not been applied in NWP until Kasahara and Washington (1967) rewrote his predictive equations and used state-of-the-art high-speed computers to conduct NWP in height coordinates. Eliassen[2]…     

Research and Operational Development of Numerical Weather Prediction in China

Numerical weather prediction(NWP) is a core technology in weather forecast and disaster mitigation. China's NWP research and operational applications have been attached great importance by the meteorological community.Fundamental achievements have been made in the theories, methods, and NWP model development in China, which are of certain international impacts. In this paper, the scientific and technological progress of NWP in China since1949 is summarized. The current status and recent progress of the domestically developed NWP system—GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System) are presented. Through independent research and development in the past 10 years, the operational GRAPES system has been established, which includes both regional and global deterministic and ensemble prediction models, with resolutions of 3–10 km for regional and 25–50 km for global forecasts. Major improvements include establishment of a new non-hydrostatic dynamic core, setup of four-dimensional variational data assimilation, and development of associated satellite application. As members of the GRAPES system, prediction models for atmospheric chemistry and air pollution, tropical cyclones, and ocean waves have also been developed and put into operational use. The GRAPES system has been an important milestone in NWP science and technology in China.     

北太平洋夏季的两个典型层积云区与海温和大气低层热力过程的关系

比较ISCCP D2层积云云量的季节平均图后发现:除了大洋东部常年有层积云外,北太平洋夏季也存在一片大值区.在副热带东北太平洋和中纬度西北太平洋各取一个10°×10°的区域,分别记为NEP和NWP.利用OI-SST、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和ERBE资料,通过相关和气候分析,提出了新的物理意义明确的稳定度判据,比较了NEP和NWP两个区的夏季层积云云量与海温、大气热力过程的异同.结果表明:夏季,NEP和NWP都有正的稳定度,有利于层积云的形成和维持.NEP区和NWP区夏季的海气温差、感热通量、潜热通量有明显的差异.从海温和夏季层积云云量的相关分析发现:在NEP区,海温滞后于层积云云量,其相关于滞后3个月时有最大负值,这可能是由于海洋有较大的热惯性,对层积云遮蔽太阳辐射而导致洋面降温的响应需要3个月;而在NWP区,则是海温超前于层积云云量,其相关于超前1个月时有最大负值,这可能是由于从5月份开始海温低于气温,且有暖空气平流,有利于随后层积云、层云和雾的形成.     

涓流细雨

正"Different priorities naturally led to different paths.With resolution of global models now approaching cloud-resolving,and the"globalization"of the regional NWP model,NWP and climate modeling are now on a collision course from two opposite ends of the spectrum.The urgency of the US"global"NWP catching     

Satellite All-sky Infrared Radiance Assimilation: Recent Progress and Future Perspectives

Satellite infrared(IR)sounder and imager measurements have become one of the main sources of data used by data assimilation systems to generate initial conditions for numerical weather prediction(NWP)models and atmospheric analysis/reanalysis.This paper reviews the development of satellite IR data assimilation in NWP in recent years,especially the assimilation of all-sky satellite IR observations.The major challenges and future directions are outlined and discussed.     

IMPACT OF THE INITIALIZATION ON MESOSCALE MODEL PREDICTION IN SOUTH CHINA

1 INTRODUCTIONThe initial state of the atmosphere is one of the keyfactors that affect the result of NWP. With thedevelopment of increasingly finer NWP, the quality ofinitial atmospheric state has been drawing more andmore attention[1-7]. GRAPES 3D- Var(G…     

AN INTRODUCTION TO LOCAL OPERATIONAL USE OF NWP PRODUCTS

Owing to the fact that the background situation about local operational use of NWP products at thestations under provincial ones in China is different from that of developed countries,a suitable approach issuggested to improve the interpretation techniques of NWP products,which includes predictor analysis andselection,combination of different NWP products,synthetic statistical method(SSM),auto-adjustment ofMOS equations to numerical model and developing a suitable software of objective weather forceast systemon microcompute etc.This approach proves to be effective after more than three years' practice.