两次4.0级地震前高邮台和盐城台地磁谐波振幅比异常分析

使用江苏地区9个地磁台站2009年1月~2016年10月的分钟值数据,计算得到各台站的地磁谐波振幅比时间序列变化曲线。分析发现,2012年7月20日高邮4.9级地震、2016年10月20日射阳4.4级地震前,高邮台和盐城台地磁谐波振幅比YZH_x和YZH_y分别出现了长短周期不同步的异常变化。其异常特征表现为:(1)异常的长期变化形态为"下降—转折—恢复",在恢复过程中出现不同步现象,异常持续时间近3年,异常幅度为0.02~0.17;(2)YZH_y向的异常幅度大于YZH_x向,同时,2次地震主震的主压应力方向为EW向,存在异常幅度较大方向与主压应力方向一致的特点。     

高邮-宝应4.9级地震地磁谐波振幅比异常特征初步分析

针对高邮-宝应4.9级地震发生前后附近地区未发生其它中等以上地震、地震事件孤立及周边地磁台站分布较密有利于研究地震地磁异常时空特征的特点,较为系统地分析总结了该地震发生前后地磁谐波振幅比的变化特征,研究结果进一步验证了目前对地磁谐波振幅比异常特征的认识,即地磁谐波振幅比异常特征表现出与地电阻率类似的下降-转折-恢复上升的异常变化过程,地震一般发生在异常转折或恢复上升过程中,距震中较近的台站会出现不同步现象——南北向与东西向的不同步以及长短周期的不同步。     

高邮—宝应4.9级地震地磁谐波振幅比异常特征初步分析

针对高邮—宝应4.9级地震发生前后附近地区未发生其它中等以上地震、地震事件孤立及周边地磁台站分布较密有利于研究地震地磁异常时空特征的特点,较为系统地分析总结了该地震发生前后地磁谐波振幅比的变化特征。研究结果进一步验证了目前对地磁谐波振幅比异常特征的认识,即地磁谐波振幅比异常特征表现出与地电阻率类似的下降-转折-恢复上升的异常变化过程,地震一般发生在异常转折或恢复上升过程中,距震中较近的台站会出现不同步现象,即SN向与EW向的不同步以及长短周期的不同步。     

重庆武隆M5.0地震前地磁异常特征分析

选取恩施台、涪陵江东台、石柱黄水台以及武隆仙女山台2012年1月至2017年11月地磁数据进行异常分析,得到各个台站的地磁谐波振幅比和加卸载响应比计算结果,并结合2017年11月23日重庆武隆M5.0地震震中附近地质构造背景分析地震前后地磁异常现象。分析结果认为大部分地磁谐波振幅比变化特征类似于地电阻率的变化特征,表现为"下降-转折-上升"过程。本次地震大致发生在转折上升的初期阶段,其中震中距较小的台站地磁谐波振幅比变化趋势不同步,但变化幅度大致相同,而震中距较大的台站地磁谐波振幅比变化趋势较为同步,变化幅度较大。此外,研究还表明震前地磁加卸载响应比异常高值在时空分布上与震中位置具有很好的对应关系。     

2016年门源6.4级地震地磁谐波振幅比异常特征分析

2016年门源6.4级地震为甘—青地区孤立地震事件,且震中附近地磁台站分布均匀,分析总结此次地震前后地磁谐波振幅比变化特征。结果显示：①地震发生前后,震中附近台站地磁谐波振幅比下降—转折—恢复的异常变化过程,持续时间约1—2年;②震中距较小的台站记录显示,地震基本发生在谐波振幅比曲线转折恢复的变化后期阶段,且异常持续时间长;震中距较大的台站记录显示,地震一般发生在曲线趋势性下降—转折阶段,且异常持续时间稍短;③地震发生后,距震中较近的台站1年内Y_ZHx（NS）和Y_ZHy（WE）方向所有或大部分周期基本趋于恢复状态,且同步变化;距震中较远的台站1年内Y_ZHx（NS）和Y_ZHy（WE）方向大部分周期未达到恢复状态,且不同步变化显著。     

福建地磁谐波振幅比异常与台湾强震的关系研究

分析台湾强震前福建地区地磁台站谐波振幅比异常特征,发现地震基本上都是发生在地磁谐波振幅比趋势性下降之后的转折期、恢复上升期及恢复后的初期阶段,6级地震的异常持续时间为1~3年,与目前谐波振幅比相关研究的结果较为一致。     

新疆伊犁及邻区地磁谐波振幅比异常特征分析

本文利用新疆伊犁及邻区温泉和克拉玛依红浅两个地磁台站2008年至2015年FHD分钟值观测数据, 采用地磁谐波振幅比计算方法, 选取台站300 km范围区域内, 震级M≥5.0的震例进行映震效果分析。 结果表明, M5.0以上地震发生前后, 温泉和克拉玛依红浅台站的地磁谐波振幅比异常变化特征主要表现为“下降—转折—恢复上升”。 异常持续总时间约为1～3年, 地震发生在趋势性下降变化后的转折期或者恢复上升阶段, 其中, 6.0级地震异常持续总时间为2～3年, 震前为1～2年。 温泉台谐波振幅比异常存在较为明显的长周期向短周期迁移现象, 意味着对应的未来地震震中距一般在100 km以上。 温泉和克拉玛依红浅台均发现不同测项之间或者同一测项不同周期之间存在不同步现象, 并且地震发生在同步性变差的阶段。     

云南地磁台地震前地磁谐波振幅比分析

采用云南永胜和通海地磁台2010年1月至2018年12月记录的地磁分钟值数据,计算谐波振幅比随时间的变化,分析发现:2014年8月3日鲁甸6.5级地震、2018年9月8日墨江5.9级地震前,谐波振幅比曲线有2次明显下降—转折—恢复异常,分别于第1次异常恢复上升过程和第2次异常转折过程中发震,异常持续时间分别为3年和2年多,持续时间越长,震级越高;距震中较近的地磁台站谐波振幅比曲线出现不同步现象,即YZHx(NS)向与YZHy(EW)向的不同步及长短周期不同步。     

强震前短周期地磁谐波振幅比变化特征

采用成都台和天水台GM4磁通门磁力仪秒采样地磁数据,计算得到这2个台站的20~230 s周期的谐波振幅比,发现该周期范围内的谐波振幅比在地震前出现的异常与10~60 min周期的谐波振幅比类似,主要表现为下降—转折—恢复上升的变化形态。成都台的谐波振幅比异常呈现南北方向和长短周期均不同步的特征,而天水台只有长短周期之间出现不同步现象。根据异常特征推测天水台位于岷县—漳县6.6级地震前的高导体区域内,而成都台则位于芦山7.0级地震前的高导体东侧边界附近。     

吉林松原M≥5.0震群前地磁谐波振幅比异常特征

以东北地区(40°—50°N,120°—130°E)为研究区域,利用黑龙江、吉林和辽宁地区地磁观测数据,进行谐波振幅比计算,对2013年10月31日至11月23日吉林松原接连发生的5个M≥5.0震群前该研究区地下电性结构进行分析,发现:(1)在该区域内显著地震发生前,望奎、通河、三岗、通化和铁岭地震台均出现下降—转折—恢复的异常变化特征,持续时间1—4.5年,变化幅度为0.04—0.07,而通河台Y_(ZH_y)项的不同周期间存在不同步现象,且异常持续2年以上;(2)通河台分钟值谐波振幅比具有由深至浅的周期迁移特征,三岗台秒值数据结果 Y_(ZH_y)向具有由浅入深的迁移特征;(3)2014年3月至2016年4月通河台水平方向的EW向数据不同深度介质电性出现差异性异常,可能预示着该台周边具有发生中强地震的危险,应重点关注该异常变化。     

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

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A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Distribution of throughfall and stemflow in multi‐strata agroforestry,perennial monoculture,fallow and primary forest in central Amazonia,Brazil

The partitioning of rain water into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss when passing through plant canopies depends on properties of the respective plant species, such as leaf area and branch angles. In heterogeneous vegetation, such as tropical forest or polycultural systems, the presence of different plant species may consequently result in a mosaic of situations with respect to quantity and quality of water inputs into the soil. As these processes influence not only the water availability for the plants, but also water infiltration and nutrient leaching, the understanding of plant effects on the repartitioning of rain water may help in the optimization of land use systems and management practices. We measured throughfall and stemflow in a perennial polyculture (multi‐strata agroforestry), monocultures of peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) for fruit and for palmito, a monoculture of cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum), spontaneous fallow and primary forest during one year in central Amazonia, Brazil. The effect on rain water partitioning was measured separately for four useful tree species in the polyculture and for two tree species in the primary forest. Throughfall at two stem distances, and stemflow, differed significantly between tree species, resulting in pronounced spatial patterns of water input into the soil in the polyculture system. For two tree species, peach palm for fruit (Bactris gasipaes) and Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa), the water input into the soil near the stem was significantly higher than the open‐area rainfall. This could lead to increased nutrient leaching when fertilizer is applied close to the stem of these trees. In the primary forest, such spatial patterns could also be detected, with significantly higher water input near a palm (Oenocarpus bacaba) than near a dicotyledonous tree species (Eschweilera sp.). Interception losses were 6·4% in the polyculture, 13·9 and 12·3% in the peach palm monocultures for fruit and for palmito, respectively, 0·5% in the cupuaçu monoculture and 3·1% in the fallow. With more than 20% of the open‐area rainfall, the highest stemflow contributions to the water input into the soil were measured in the palm monocultures and in the fallow. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anthropogenic Eutrophication and Red Tide Outbreak in Lacustrine Systems of the Kashmir Himalaya

Red tide, a recurrent phenomenon has become conspicuous in several Kashmir lake ecosystems since 1991. The responsible organism (Euglena pedunculata), a rare flagellate rediscovered in the Kashmir Himalaya (Khan 1993) caused first and unprecedented red tide outbreak, constituting a maximum of 96% of resident numerical phytoplankton density in Dal Lake. At present, conflicting hypotheses exist on the generation of causal assemblage(s) imparting redness to waters: Jeeji Bai (1991) linked its origin to acid precipitation – a fallout of burning oil‐fields during the Gulf War – whilst Khan (1993) holds local factor(s) responsible. Field/experimental studies support the latter contention that the influx of untreated sewage, in unison with warm temperatures, high levels of PhAR, iron and interruption to hydrological flow‐pattern together with absence/or reduction in grazing activity created conducive environmental milieu for red tide outbreak. Dal Lake “red tide” drifted the bloom‐inoculum to other waters, including Lake Wular, where additional ecological niches were carved out, threatening the aesthetic value and biological diversity of Kashmir lakes. Ecological monitoring indicates frequent seasonal red tide occurrence in Dal Lake (including summer‐autumn event of 1998) which testifies its unabated eutrophication status. Further studies are needed on ecological adaptability and biogeographic distribution of this rare and unique red tide‐causing flagellate.