Recurring droughts or social shifts? Exploring drivers of large-scale transformations in a transformed country

As climate change intensifies, the need for large-scale transformations that reform vulnerable systems’ prevailing values and development pathways is increasingly recognized. However, there is limited understanding of the factors that underlie such changes. This study sheds light on these factors by examining the case of Israel – a largely arid to semi-arid country with highly scarce natural water resources and a historical rural-agricultural ideology. Adopting an historically-informed systems perspective, I analyze two transformations that diminished Israel’s vulnerability to recurring droughts: the 1960s’ economic transformation from agriculture to industry, and the shift to seawater desalination in the mid-2000s. These changes are examined using causal-loop diagrams based on multiple data sources, including archival records, statistical reports and a systematic review of grey and academic literature.The findings show that both transformations, instigated by state institutions during exceptionally severe droughts, were driven by shifts away from development paradigms embedded in the nation-building ideology, as well as by social stresses that exceeded the natural limits of the agricultural system and water supply system. Repeated drought shocks activated and later reactivated the shift to desalination, intended to a certain degree to reduce drought vulnerability. However, drought did not significantly affect the economic transformation, initiated mainly due to saturation in agricultural development. Thus, I argue that alongside concerted adaptation efforts state institutions should dedicate greater attention to the management of broader social challenges and crises in a manner that fosters greater resilience against future climate changes. Ideological shifts and consequent restructuring of development paths, as well as the interaction between population growth and limited natural resources, may constitute important entry points. These entry points are particularly pertinent to emerging economies in other dry areas, many of which face similar social and economic trends to those experienced in Israel over the last decades.     

Re-thinking colonialism to prepare for the impacts of rapid environmental change

This essay demonstrates how key concepts from ecology can be applied within historical analyses in order to gain insights regarding contemporary environmental change. We employ a coupled human and natural systems conceptual framework in a nascent historical analysis of rapid societal and environmental change in colonial New England, where European colonization led to stark and rapid transformations. Introduced diseases reduced indigenous communities to a fraction of their pre-contact levels. European agriculture and associated pest species, deforestation and overharvest of ecologically influential species were among key aspects of the rapid changes in colonial New England. Cross-continental biotic introductions initiated reinforcing feedback loops that accelerated the transition of human and natural systems into novel states. Integrating colonial history and ecology can help identify important interactions between human and natural systems useful for contemporary societies adjusting to environmental change.     

Disrupting path dependency: Making room for Indigenous knowledge in river management

Scholars frequently identify how path dependency serves to constrain the process of climate adaptation and is a key feature of maladaptation. Most studies, however, centre on theoretical, rather than empirical-based discussions of what path dependency is, how it occurs, and what factors assist in breaking path dependency. This paper provides a case study for the creation, maintenance, and attempts to break path dependency within the management of rivers in the Rangitāiki Plains of Aotearoa New Zealand from the 1890s until 2017. We deploy a historical institutionalist theorising on path dependency and institutional arrangements, while also incorporating ideas from indigenous and postcolonial scholarship, which extends current understandings of the factors that contribute towards path dependency at a local level. Through archival research, we demonstrate how successive generations of government policies and actions directed with a specific goal and underpinned by the hegemonic social values created a profoundly path dependent system of managing rivers and flood events. Increased flood vulnerability is one of the direct consequences of the plethora of freshwater engineering interventions which were (and are still) undertaken on the Rangitāiki Plains over the last century. The foundation of this path dependency, we argue, resides with the processes of indigenous dispossession and the marginalisation of Māori values from environmental governance and policy. Efforts to break path dependency, therefore, involve the formal recognition of Māori governance, values, and knowledge within policies, and the translation of Māori values into tangible actions that seek to destabilise Western command-and control approaches to flood risk management.     

Climate change vulnerability and social development for remote indigenous communities of South Australia

There is a strong contemporary research and policy focus on climate change risk to communities, places and systems. While the need to understand how climate change will impact on society is valid, the challenge for many vulnerable communities, especially some of the most marginalised, such as remote indigenous communities of north-west South Australia, need to be couched in the context of both immediate risks to livelihoods and long-term challenges of sustainable development. An integrated review of climate change vulnerability for the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region, with a focus on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara lands, suggests that targeted analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation options can overlook broader needs both for people and the environment. Climate change will add to a range of complex challenges for indigenous communities, especially in relation to hazards, such as fire and floods, and local environmental management issues, especially in association with invasive species. To respond to future socio-ecological risk, some targeted responses will need to focus on climate change impacts, but there also needs to be a better understanding of what risk is already apparent within socio-ecosystems and how climate interacts with such systems. Other environmental, social and economic risks may need to be prioritised, or at least strongly integrated into climate change vulnerability assessments. As the capacity to learn how to adapt to risk is developed, the value attributed to traditional ecological knowledge and local indigenous natural resource management must increase, both to provide opportunities for strong local engagement with the adaptation response and to provide broader social development opportunities.     

Can we learn from the past? Towards better analogies and historical inference in society-environmental change research

In light of the challenges posed by contemporary environmental changes, interest in past environmental impacts and societies’ responses to them is burgeoning. The main strength of such research lies in its ability to analyze completed society-environment interactions. Scholars have argued that such analyses can improve our understanding of present challenges and offer useful lessons to guide adaptation responses. Yet despite considerable differences between past and present societies, our inherently limited knowledge of the past and our changing understanding of it, much of this research uses historical antecedents uncritically, assuming that past societal impacts and responses are directly analogous to contemporary ones. We argue that this approach is unsound both methodologically and theoretically, thus drawing insights that might offer an erroneous course of action.To illustrate the challenges in drawing historical analogies, we outline several fundamental differences between past and present societies as well as broader limitations of historical research. Based on these points, we argue that scholars who apply historical inference in their work should do so critically, while reflecting on the objectives of learning from the past and the limitations of this process. We suggest a number of ways to improve past-present analogies, such as defining more explicitly what we can learn from the past, clarifying the rationale for using the analogy, and reducing the number of variables compared between past and present.     

Māori environmental knowledge of local weather and climate change in Aotearoa – New Zealand

The ability of Māori to understand, record and forecast weather and climate has been an important factor in successfully responding to past weather and climatic change in New Zealand. Through interacting with local environments over the centuries Māori have developed a wealth of environmental knowledge, with the lessons learnt having been incorporated into traditional and modern practices of agriculture, fishing, medicine, education and conservation. In partnership with the tribal group Te Whānau-ā-Apanui, NIWA’s Māori Research and Development Unit (Te Kuwaha o Taihoro Nukurangi) have initiated a pilot project to identify and document Māori environmental knowledge (MEK) of weather and climate in New Zealand. Using a Kaupapa Māori based research approach and semi-directive interviewing, an intimate understanding of local weather and climate was demonstrated by elders from Te Whānau-ā-Apanui. This knowledge includes the use of a vast indigenous nomenclature for local weather and climate phenomenon, the oral recording of weather and climate based events and trends, and the identification of environmental indicators to forecast weather and climate. Learning from this knowledge provides an opportunity to understand what has helped Māori adapt to weather and climate variability in the past. It also provides clues on how to enhance present day Māori and western scientific understanding of local weather and climate in New Zealand. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Framing environmental change in Africa: cross-scale institutional constraints on progressing from rhetoric to action against vulnerability

The reconciliation of national development plans with global priority to mitigate environmental change remains an intractable policy controversy. In Africa, its resolution requires integrating local knowledge into impact assessments without compromising the scientific integrity of the assessment process. This requires better understanding of the communication pathways involved in progressing from frame construction to political action on various environmental issues. The impacts of environmental factors on human health are a common concern in Africa, and it is examined here as a platform for negotiating controversies surrounding the arrogation of global support for local assessments of vulnerability and mitigation. The study focused on the particularities of projected impacts of climate change, and specifically on considerations of the health sector within the context of multivalent international agreements to conduct and use environmental assessments. The analysis addresses limitations of cross-scale communication nodes that are embedded in boundary institutions such as the Country Study Program which is hosted by industrialized nations. The translation of rhetoric into action frames through dynamic vulnerability assessments and critical frame reflection can equally engage indigenous and aided capacity for adapting to environmental change.     

Investigating Climate Change Impacts and Thresholds: An Application of the CLIMPACTS Integrated Assessment Model for New Zealand Agriculture

The determination of `critical thresholds'is an essential task for informed policydecisions on establishing greenhouse gas emissiontargets. This paper presents a framework fordetermining critical thresholds for New Zealandagriculture, focusing on three agriculturalcrops – kiwifruit, grain maize, andPaspalum dilatatum – as exemplars for the fruitproduction, arable cropping and dairy productionindustries in New Zealand. The approach is based onthe application of a country-scale, integratedassessment model, called CLIMPACTS. The CLIMPACTSsystem contains a climate change scenario generator,climate and land data, and sectoral impact models. Importantly, CLIMPACTS allows time-dependentassessments of climate change and its effects, whichfacilitates the identification and examination of thresholds, which largely relate to spatial changes, over time, in regions of economic importance for these crops. However, whether such thresholds are `critical' for New Zealand cannot currently be addressed by the CLIMPACTS model. The determination of `criticality' requires a fully integrated assessment in which the social, economic, and environmental costs and risks associated with these thresholds are comprehensively evaluated.     

Vulnerable or Resilient? A Multi-Scale Assessment of Climate Impacts and Vulnerability in Norway

This paper explores the issue of climate vulnerability in Norway, an affluent country that is generally considered to be resilient to the impacts of climate change. In presenting a multi-scale assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability in Norway, we show that the concept of vulnerability depends on the scale of analysis. Both exposure and the distribution of climate sensitive sectors vary greatly across scale. So do the underlying social and economic conditions that influence adaptive capacity. These findings question the common notion that climate change may be beneficial for Norway, and that the country can readily adapt to climate change. As scale differences are brought into consideration, vulnerability emerges within some regions, localities, and social groups. To cope with actual and potential changes in climate and climate variability, it will be necessary to acknowledge climate vulnerabilities at the regional and local levels, and to address them accordingly. This multi-scale assessment of impacts and vulnerability in Norway reinforces the importance of scale in global change research.     

Public perceptions of rainfall change in India

People’s perceptions of changes in local weather patterns are an important precursor to proactive adaptation to climate change. In this paper, we consider public perceptions of changes in average rainfall in India, analyzing the relationship between perceptions and the instrumental record. Using data from a national sample survey, we find that local instrumental records of precipitation are a strong predictor of perceived declines in rainfall. Perceptions of decreasing rainfall were also associated with perceptions of changes in extreme weather events, such as decreasing frequency of floods and severe storms, increasing frequency of droughts, and decreasing predictability of the monsoon. Higher social vulnerability—including low perceived adaptive capacity and greater food and livelihood dependence on local weather—was also associated with perceptions of decreasing rainfall. While both urban and rural respondents were likely to perceive local changes in precipitation, we show that rural respondents in general were more sensitive to actual changes in precipitation. Individual perceptions of changes in local climate may play an important role in shaping vulnerability to global climate change, adaptive behavior, and support for adaptation and mitigation policies. Awareness of local climate change is therefore particularly important in regions where much of the population is highly exposed and sensitive to the impacts of climate change.     

A three-tiered approach to participatory vulnerability assessment in the Solomon Islands

Greater recognition of the seriousness of global environmental change has led to an increase in research that assesses the vulnerability of households, communities and regions to changing environmental or economic conditions. So far, however, there has been relatively little attention given to how assessments can be conducted in ways that help build capacity for local communities to understand and find their own solutions to their problems. This paper reports on an approach that was designed and used to work with a local grass roots organization in the Solomon Islands to promote inclusivity and participation in decision-making and to build the capacity of the organization to reduce the vulnerability of communities to drivers of change. The process involved working collaboratively with the organization and training its members to conduct vulnerability assessments with communities using participatory and deliberative methods. To make best use of the learning opportunities provided by the research process, specific periods for formal reflection were incorporated for the three key stakeholders involved: the primary researchers; research assistants; and community members. Overall, the approach: (1) promoted learning about the current situation in Kahua and encouraged deeper analysis of problems; (2) built capacity for communities to manage the challenges they were facing; and (3) fostered local ownership and responsibility for problems and set precedents for future participation in decision-making. While the local organization and the communities it serves still face significant challenges, the research approach set the scene for greater local participation and effort to maintain and enhance livelihoods and wellbeing. The outcomes highlight the need for greater emphasis on embedding participatory approaches in vulnerability assessments for communities to benefit fully from the process.     

Understanding interlinkages between long-term trajectory of exposure and vulnerability,path dependency and cascading impacts of disasters in Saint-Martin (Caribbean)

This empirical and interdisciplinary study investigates the contribution of deeply enrooted social-political factors to the accumulation of exposure and vulnerability and amplification of cascading impacts of disasters, with implications on the creation and reinforcement of path dependency maintaining social-ecological systems on a maladaptive trajectory. Applying the Trajectory of Exposure and Vulnerability approach to Saint-Martin (Caribbean), we more specifically highlight how the causal chain linking historical geopolitical and political-institutional drivers to legal, economic, demographic, sociocultural, planning-related and environmental drivers, created the accumulation of exposure and vulnerability over time and contributed to the propagation and amplification of the impacts of tropical cyclones Irma and José in 2017. We find that historical social-political dynamics involving unsustainable development and settlement patterns, the weakness of local institutions, population mistrust in public authorities, high social inequalities and environmental degradation maintained Saint-Martin on a maladaptive trajectory through powerful reinforcing mechanisms operating both between and during cyclonic events. This study demonstrates that long-term interdisciplinary approaches are required for a better understanding of path dependency and the identification of levers to break it in risk-prone contexts. In Saint-Martin, breaking path dependency requires the alignment of local institutional capacities with national risk reduction policies, the promotion of social justice and involvement of local communities in decision making. This study therefore confirms the relevance of backward-looking approaches to support forward-looking climate adaptation.     

Exploring vulnerability and adaptation to climate change of communities in the forest zone of Cameroon

Understanding vulnerability to the impacts of global environmental change and identifying adaptation measures to cope with these impacts require localized investigations that can help find actual and exact answers to the questions about who and what are vulnerable, to what are they vulnerable, how vulnerable are they, what are the causes of their vulnerability, and what responses can lessen their vulnerability. People living in forests are highly dependent on forest goods and services, and are vulnerable to forest changes both socially and economically. In the Congo basin, climate change effects on forest ecosystems are predicted to amplify the existing pressure on food security urging expansion of current agricultural lands at the expense of forest, biodiversity loss and socioeconomic stresses. The paper aimed at exploring vulnerability and adaptation needs to climate change of local communities in the humid forest zone of Cameroon. Field work was conducted in two forest communities in Lekié and in Yokadouma in the Center and Eastern Regions of Cameroon respectively. The assessment was done using a series of approaches including a preparatory phase, fieldwork proper, and validation of the results. Results show that: (a) the adverse effects of climate conditions to which these communities are exposed are already being felt and exerting considerable stress on most of their livelihoods resources; (b) drought, changing seasons, erratic rain patterns, heavy rainfall and strong winds are among the main climate-related disturbances perceived by populations in the project sites; (c) important social, ecological and economic processes over the past decades seemed to have shaped current vulnerability in the sites; (d) Some coping and adaptive strategies used so far are outdated; and specific adaptation needs are identified and suggestions for facilitating their long-term implementations provided.     

Catching sea cucumber fever in coastal communities: Conceptualizing the impacts of shocks versus trends on social-ecological systems

Research on vulnerability and adaptation in social-ecological systems (SES) has largely centered on climate change and associated biophysical stressors. Key implications of this are twofold. First, there has been limited engagement with the impacts of social drivers of change on communities and linked SES. Second, the focus on climate effects often assumes slower drivers of change and fails to differentiate the implications of change occurring at different timescales. This has resulted in a body of SES scholarship that is under-theorized in terms of how communities experience and respond to fast versus slow change. Yet, social and economic processes at global scales increasingly emerge as ‘shocks’ for local systems, driving rapid and often surprising forms of change distinct from and yet interacting with the impacts of slow, ongoing ‘trends’. This research seeks to understand the nature and impacts of social shocks as opposed to or in concert with trends through the lens of a qualitative case study of a coastal community in Mexico, where demand from international seafood markets has spurred rapid development of a sea cucumber fishery. Specifically, we examined what different social-ecological changes are being experienced by the community, how the impacts of the sea cucumber fishery are distinct from and interacting with slower ongoing trends and how these processes are affecting system vulnerability, adaptations and adaptive capacity. We begin by proposing a novel framework for conceptualizing impacts on social systems, as comprised of structures, functions, and feedbacks. Our results illustrate how the rapid-onset of this fishery has driven dramatic changes in the community. New challenges such as the ‘gold-rush-style’ arrival of new actors, money, and livelihoods, the rapid over-exploitation of fish stocks, and increases in poaching and armed violence have emerged, exacerbating pressures from ongoing trends in immigration, overfishing and tourism development. We argue that there is a need to better understand and differentiate the social and ecological implications of shocks, which present novel challenges for the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of communities and the sustainability of marine ecosystems.     

Experiences of modernity in the greenhouse: A cultural analysis of a physicist “trio” supporting the backlash against global warming

This paper identifies cultural and historical dimensions that structure US climate science politics. It explores why a key subset of scientists—the physicist founders and leaders of the influential George C. Marshall Institute—chose to lend their scientific authority to this movement which continues to powerfully shape US climate policy. The paper suggests that these physicists joined the environmental backlash to stem changing tides in science and society, and to defend their preferred understandings of science, modernity, and of themselves as a physicist elite—understandings challenged by on-going transformations encapsulated by the widespread concern about human-induced climate change.     

Vulnerability

This paper reviews research traditions of vulnerability to environmental change and the challenges for present vulnerability research in integrating with the domains of resilience and adaptation. Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt. Antecedent traditions include theories of vulnerability as entitlement failure and theories of hazard. Each of these areas has contributed to present formulations of vulnerability to environmental change as a characteristic of social-ecological systems linked to resilience. Research on vulnerability to the impacts of climate change spans all the antecedent and successor traditions. The challenges for vulnerability research are to develop robust and credible measures, to incorporate diverse methods that include perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience. These challenges are common to the domains of vulnerability, adaptation and resilience and form common ground for consilience and integration.     

Saami reindeer pastoralism under climate change: Applying a generalized framework for vulnerability studies to a sub-arctic social–ecological system

A generalized vulnerability framework was used to structure an interdisciplinary and intercultural examination of factors that influence the ways in which reindeer pastoralism in Finnmark (northern Norway) may be affected by climate change. Regional and local (downscaled) climate projections included scenarios that can potentially influence foraging conditions for reindeer. None of the projections were without precedent; several climate change events in Finnmark during the last 100 years were at least as great as those projected in the next 20–30 years. Herders’ traditional responses to changes in both the natural and the socio-economic environments have depended on a flexibility in herding practice that is currently being eroded by several non-climate factors. The reduced of freedom of action resulting from loss of habitat, predation and aspects of governance (especially economic and legal constraints) potentially dwarves the putative effects of projected climate change on reindeer pastoralism. It may, however, also lead to situations in which new climatic conditions threaten the system in unprecedented ways. Developing appropriate methodologies for assessing the adaptive capacity, the vulnerability and the resilience of social–ecological systems to global changes remains a challenge. Recognition of the knowledge systems of Arctic cultures and the full engagement of local people throughout the process are key elements of the solution.     

Multipurpose agroforestry as a climate change resiliency option for farmers: an example of local adaptation in Vietnam

Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of severe weather events are posing major challenges to global food security and livelihoods of rural people. Agriculture has evolved through adaptation to local circumstances for thousands of years. Local experience in responding to severe weather conditions, accumulated over generations and centuries, is valuable for developing adaptation options to current climate change. This study aimed to: (i) identify tree species that reduce vulnerability of cropping systems under climate variability; and (ii) develop a method for rapidly assessing vulnerability and exploring strategies of smallholder farmers in rural areas exposed to climate variability. Participatory Rural Appraisal methods in combination with Geographical Information Systems tools and statistical analysis of meteorological data were used to evaluate local vulnerability to climate change and to investigate local adaptation measures in two selected villages in Vietnam, one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change. The low predictability of severe weather events makes food crops, especially grain production, insecure. This study shows that while rice and rain-fed crops suffered over 40 % yield losses in years of extreme drought or flood, tree-based systems and cattle were less affected. 13 tree species performed well under the harsh local climate conditions in home and forest gardens to provide income, food, feed and other environmental benefits. Thus, this research suggests that maintenance and enhancement of locally evolved agroforestry systems, with high resilience and multiple benefits, can contribute to climate change adaptation.     

Adaptation,adaptive capacity and vulnerability

This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs.     

How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming dynasty

Based on the reconstructed temperatures, precipitation changes, and occurrences of extreme climate events, together with historical records on fiscal deterioration, food crises, and the frequencies of popular unrest, rebellions and wars, we identified three principal ways in which climate change contributed to the collapse in the Ming dynasty. Firstly, cooling, aridification, and desertification during a cold period destroyed the military farm system, which was the main supply system for the provisioning of government troops on the northern frontiers; these impacts increased the military expenditure from 64 % of total government expenditure in 1548–1569 to 76 % in 1570–1589 and thus aggravated the national fiscal crisis that occurred during the late Ming dynasty. Secondly, climate deterioration (e.g., cooling, aridification, and an increase in the frequencies of frost- and drought-related disasters, etc.) led to a 20–50 % reduction in the per capita production of raw grain in most areas of China, which resulted in widespread food crises and exacerbated the vulnerability of social structures during the last several decades of the Ming dynasty. Thirdly, the severe droughts occurring in 1627–1643 were a key trigger to the peasantry uprising. These droughts also played a significant role to promote the peasantry uprising, especially reviving the peasantry troops by recruitment of famine victims when they nearly perished in 1633 and 1638, and severely disrupting the food supply for the government troops, resulting in the final defeat of the government troops by the peasantry troops. This study contributes to an understanding of the climate-related mechanisms behind the collapse of the Ming dynasty, and provides a historical case study that enhances our understanding of the nature of interactions between climate change and social vulnerability.