GM（1，1）优化模型在滑坡预测预报中的应用

灰色模型在社会科学、自然科学的许多方面已得到广泛的应用，并取得了一系列重大成果。在斜坡(滑坡)地质灾害研究方面，灰色模型多用于斜坡(滑坡)变形的中长期预测预报，且精度较高；但对滑坡短临预测预报精度较差，甚至不能适用，有待改进。滑坡变形预测预报的实际算例表明，以优化灰色模型背景值为基础的优化GM(1，1)模型。具有对建模结果进行优化的能力，即能用于斜坡变形的中长期预测预报，又能适于滑坡短临预测预报。且都能获得较高的模拟和预测精度。应用传统线性GM(1，1)模型和非线性Verhulst模型进行对比分析，检验了优化GM(1，1)模型的正确性和较广泛的适用性。     

金龙山斜坡中多变形带的稳定性模糊综合评判

斜坡中发育的多种裂面在滑坡形成过程中将组合成多条变形带，随着变形的发展，变形逐渐向最大剪应力处集中，最终形成滑面。斜坡中多变形带稳定性模糊综合评判是采用数理统计的方法，将滑坡发育过程中影响变形带的因素作为不同的评判因子，对其进行模糊综合评判分析，然后确定最不稳定的变形带。文中最后以金龙山滑坡变形带的稳定性分析为例，证明该方法的正确性。     

基于GPS的雅安峡口滑坡变形监测

滑坡是斜坡体物质变形累积到一定程度而形成并发生的,因此通过滑坡体的变形监测,能揭示和预测坡体的变形趋势,且监测的数据精度越高,对滑坡的预测和趋势分析准确度越高.目前对滑坡体的地表变形监测手段很多,但大多数监测数据的精度都不尽如人意,因此监测仪器以及手段的选择至关重要.GPS对静止物体的空间相对定位精度已非常高,本研究正是基于GPS观测数据高精度的特点,借助其对滑坡进行监测,从而分析滑坡的变形特征以及可能发展趋势.     

基于机器学习的库岸滑坡变形短期预测

库岸边坡是一个复杂的地质综合体,库岸滑坡是威胁库区安全的地质隐患。多数传统滑坡预测模型为静态模型,未将滑坡变形特征与位移预测二者结合考虑,不能实际反映滑坡演化过程中的动态特性。本文基于溪洛渡库区58处涉水滑坡变形监测结果,归纳了库岸滑坡变形规律,采用机器学习方法实现了不同特征滑坡变形趋势的短期预测。研究结果显示：(1)研究区年平均地表形变速率处于-116.841～265mm·yr^-1,负值代表目标地物远离卫星方向位移,正值代表目标地物靠近卫星方向移动,其中存在缓慢变形滑坡13处,根据其累计位移曲线特征划分为：阶跃型、振荡型和持续增长型三类。(2)阶跃型滑坡滑面多为弧线型,其变形主要受库水位周期性变动影响;振荡型滑坡滑面多为折线型,其变形多受库水位和降雨共同作用;持续增长型滑坡滑面多为直线型,其变形主要受自身地质条件控制。(3)针对不同变形特征滑坡,采用长短时记忆(LSTM)神经网络模型考虑多因素耦合和滑坡演化状态建立了滑坡变形动态预测模型,通过评价结果验证,该模型具有较高预测精度及良好的适用性。研究结果可以为溪洛渡库区滑坡系统研究与防治提供依据,为库区不同变形特征...     

四川省万县市豆芽棚滑坡

豆芽棚滑坡体长５００ｍ，宽１５０ｍ，平均厚１０─１５ｍ，体积１００万ｍ￣３．主滑方向３０°。滑坡前缘海拔１５０ｍ，后缘海拔２００ｍ，本滑坡是在斜坡遭人为破坏（加载）后由降雨诱发的。滑坡防治措施主要拟采取减载和布设抗滑桩。     

澜沧江中下游斜坡变形破坏与危害特征

本文划分出澜沧江中下游斜坡结构类型并分析了各斜坡类型的基本特征、变形机制和演化方式，阐述了斜坡变形破坏对该地区人类经济活动的影响，为评价预测澜沧江中下游斜坡稳定性奠定了基础。     

一种基于EEMD-RFR的水库滑坡台阶状位移预测模型

水库滑坡的位移与周期性的库水波动和季节性降雨等诱发因素关系密切,由于库水位升降和降雨的作用,滑坡累计位移变形曲线呈明显的"台阶状",准确、及时地预测此类台阶状位移对提升该变形的认识具有重要意义。为深入了解诱发因素对水库滑坡位移的影响,预测其变形演化趋势,本研究提出了一种基于集合经验模态分解(EEMD)和随机森林回归模型(RFR)的滑坡位移预测模型。以水库滑坡——三峡库区白家包滑坡2007年4月至2018年12月的变形数据为例,进行"台阶状"位移的预测与模型检验。通过EEMD方法将累计位移分解为趋势项和周期项,其中趋势项采取最小二乘法的三次多项式拟合;周期项基于诱发因素组合和滑坡位移的响应变化,建立RFR模型进行预测。根据时间序列加法,将趋势项和周期项预测值叠加,获得总位移预测值。结果表明EEMD-RFR模型基本反映了滑坡累计位移的"台阶状"变化趋势,相关系数R达到0.997。通过与两种BP神经网络预测方法的对比,反映EEMD-RFR模型具有更好的预测效果。本研究为水库滑坡台阶状位移预测提供了一种有效的新方法,对了解水库滑坡长期变形具有一定意义。     

基于QPSO-LSSVM的边坡变形预测

滑坡变形受外界影响因素作用的机理十分复杂,难以采用简单方法对其进行预测,因此建立快速准确的滑坡预测模型十分重要。采用比一般支持向量机(SVM)预测效果更好且计算速度更快的最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)方法,选用RBF核函数对边坡位移时序数据进行训练和预测,并引入量子粒子群算法(QPSO)对LSSVM模型参数γ和σ进行全局寻优,避免了人为选择参数的盲目性,提高了模型的预测精度。将优化模型应用于新滩滑坡和卧龙寺新滑坡的变形预测,并与传统的LSSVM、PSO-LSSVM模型进行预测精度及收敛性对比分析。结果表明,QPSO-LSSVM模型较传统方法在预测精度上有了明显提高,且收敛速度明显加快,说明QPSO-LSSVM模型在边坡位移时序预测中具有良好的应用价值。     

滑坡变形监测系统深部与地表变形关系初探

滑坡的孕育、演变、发生是一个累进性变形破坏过程,开展滑坡变形的长期监测工作对滑坡稳定性评价、滑坡的预测预报及治理具有重要的工程意义。目前,滑坡变形监测多集中于坡体表部,很难系统获得反映滑坡稳定性的深部变形资料。本文以某溃屈型滑坡为例,初步分析了滑坡深表部变形的关系,为滑坡稳定性分析及变形破坏趋势预测提供了依据。     

GIS支持下滑坡斜坡类型定量化及制图研究

斜坡类型描述岩层产状与斜坡的角度关系,很大程度上决定了斜坡岩土体变形的方式和强度,对地质灾害分布具有重要作用。斜坡的顺向坡、反向坡与地形的阳坡、阴坡概念相似,可以利用改进的太阳辐射地形因子计算模型(TOBIA指数)对斜坡类型进行定量化表达。计算TOBIA指数需要斜坡坡度、坡向、岩层倾角、倾向4个参数。以三峡库区顺向坡基岩滑坡多发地段青干河流域为例,通过区域地质图上产状点获取离散岩层倾角和倾向数值,经空间插值得到空间连续分布的倾角和倾向参数;通过数字高程模型获取坡度和坡向参数,得到区内TOBIA指数分布。在此基础上进一步研究指数和滑坡发育关系。结果表明,TOBIA指数值与区内斜坡类型密切相关,根据TOBIA指数值能很好地区分斜坡类型。以二分类变量逻辑回归模型对坡度和指数两个变量进行分析,发现引入TOBIA指数后,回归模型对已知滑坡拟合度由55%提高到71.5%,能有效提高区域滑坡灾害危险性区划结果精度。     

Numerical modelling of the gravity-induced destabilization of a slope: The example of the La Clapière landslide, southern France

A finite difference two-dimensional model with Hooke–Mohr–Coulomb properties and topography derived from the DEM are used to reproduce the La Clapière landslide. The principal factor defining the gravity-driven destabilization of the model is a gradual reduction in the cohesion. This reduction simulates a degradation of the material properties with time because of weathering/alteration processes. The inelastic deformation, fracturing, and faulting first occur at mountain scale and results in normal fault formation causing crest sagging. Later, the failure process is concentrated in the lower part of the slope and leads to the formation of a localized fault subparallel to the slope surface at a depth of ca. 100 m. This corresponds to the initiation of the La Clapière landslide and its propagation upslope. A slow crest sagging continues during the whole model evolution.     

LIDAR monitoring of mass wasting processes: The Radicofani landslide, Province of Siena, Central Italy

The Radicofani Basin, stretching about 30 km NW–SE, is an intra-Central Apennine basin connected to Pliocene–Pleistocene extensional tectonics. It consists of an Early to Middle Pliocene succession including essentially shelf pelites. In the Radicofani area, province of Siena (Tuscany region), morphodynamic processes are very frequent with widespread badlands and rapidly evolving mudflows. In order to evaluate the general instability of the Radicofani area, geological and geomorphological surveys were carried out. The 1954, 1990 and 2003 aerial surveys allowed a comparison of the changes in the various morphological aspects of the study area, which suggested an increase in slope instability with time. A new complex translational landslide evolving into mudflows, activated during the winter of 2003, was monitored using an experimental system based on terrestrial LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) and GPS (Global Positioning System) technologies. This system allowed the monitoring of the morphologic and volumetric evolution of the landslide. A comparison of the monitoring data of October 2004, June 2005, May 2006 and May 2007 points out that the evolution is characterised by the sliding of displaced materials. A volume of about 1300 m³ of materials was removed during the period 2004–2005, 300 m³ for 2005–2006, and 400 m³ for 2006–2007. The greater initial mass movement probably reflects a greater static imbalance during the early period of landslide movement and increased rainfall. Therefore, the proposed monitoring system methodology allows the numerical evaluation of the landslide morphological evolution and to validate the landslide evolution model based on geological and geomorphological field surveys.     

佛山市顺德区飞鹅山Ⅲ号滑坡形成机理与防治技术

采用工程地质钻探、物探、地质测绘及室内试验等技术方法探讨飞鹅山Ⅲ号滑坡形成机理与防治技术。结果表明：1）滑坡体主要岩性为泥质粉砂岩,飞鹅山滑坡属于新形成的深层中型牵引式滑坡,在平面上呈圈椅状。2）滑坡属于双层滑面滑坡,主滑面以中型深层滑坡为主,主滑体上部发育中型中厚层滑坡。3）滑坡产生的原因为：(1)泥质粉砂岩倾向与坡向基本一致,且岩层倾角为中等倾角;(2)人工开挖使坡脚形成高陡临空面,抗滑力大为降低;(3)雨水沿层面及节理裂隙入渗至坡体深部,大大增加岩土体容重,同时泥质粉砂岩遇水软化,抗剪强度显著降低。4）结合该滑坡区地质环境条件,采用坡面削坡+锚杆（索）+格构梁+双排预应力锚拉抗滑桩+三维网植草绿化+截排水+毛石挡墙的综合治理方法进行防治,监测结果显示该滑坡变形及位移已得到有效控制,整治效果良好。     

Kinematics of a landslide derived from archival photogrammetry and GPS data

The evolution of the Patigno landslide, a deep-seated gravitational slope deformation in the Northern Apennine range (Italy), was investigated using archival photogrammetry, and GPS observations from a permanent station located inside the landslide. Historical aerial photographs of the area taken in 1975 (scale 1:13,000), 1987 (1:13,000) and 2004 (1:30,000) were co-registered into the same reference frame using an unconventional method based on the detection of homologous points in multi-temporal models. Three DTMs were produced using a Digital Photogrammetric Workstation and compared. The displacement vectors of 293 points in the landslide were determined. The average movement velocity of the GPS station since 2004 (about 3.5 cm yr^− 1) agrees with the mean displacement rate obtained from photogrammetry. Furthermore, the estimated velocity varies seasonally between 3 and 6 cm yr^− 1. This variability correlated with rainfall suggests that the creep of the landslide is influenced by hydrological factors.     

Deep-seated failure propagation in a fractured rock slope over 10,000 years: The La Clapière slope, the south-eastern French Alps

The “La Clapière” area (Tinée valley, Alpes Maritimes, France) is a typical large, complex, unstable rock slope affected by Deep Seated Gravitational Slope Deformations (DGSD) with tension cracks, scarps, and a 60 × 10⁶ m³ rock slide at the slope foot that is currently active. The slope surface displacements since 10 ka were estimated from ¹⁰Be ages of slope gravitational features and from morpho-structural analyses. It appears that tensile cracks with a strike perpendicular to the main orientation of the slope were first triggered by the gravitational reactivation of pre-existing tectonic faults in the slope. A progressive shearing of the cracks then occurred until the failure of a large rock mass at the foot of the slope. By comparing apertures, variations and changes in direction between cracks of different ages, three phases of slope surface displacement were identified: 1) an initial slow slope deformation, spreading from the foot to the top, characterized by an average displacement rate of 4 mm yr^− 1, from 10–5.6 ka BP; 2) an increase in the average displacement rate from 13 to 30 mm yr^− 1 from the foot to the middle of the slope, until 3.6 ka BP; and 3) development of a large failure at the foot of the slope with fast displacement rates exceeding 80 mm yr^− 1 for the last 50 years. The main finding of this study is that such a large fractured slope destabilization had a very slow displacement rate for thousands of years but was followed by a recent acceleration. The results obtained agree with several previous studies, indicating that in-situ monitoring of creep of a fractured rock slope may be useful for predicting the time and place of a rapid failure.     

HP-2型滑坡遥测系统

以自行研制的恒流式静态应变仪(中国专利号:88212764.0)为主机的HP-2型滑坡遥测系统,用作测值远传和分散设点集中遥测数据。本系统配接PC-1500A或IBM PC/XT计算机,可构成滑坡监测系统;它既能控制多点巡回检测、定点检测和通道号显示,亦可控制应变仪作半桥或全桥测量,又能控制采样时间等。1987—1990年运行结果表明,本遥测系统相当稳定可靠。     

Urban landslide monitoring by combined use of multiple methodologies - a case study on Sv. Anton town,Slovakia

ABSTRACT

We employed integrated methods to assess the landslide movement in Sv. Anton town in the Western Carpathians Neogene Volcanic Field (Central Slovakia). The integrated diagnostics required study of the landslide kinematic activity by a combination of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) imaging from November 2013 to March 2015. A topographic model with 2-cm accuracy was constructed from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) photogrammetry. Continuous spatial datasets of movement and displacement field vectors were interpolated from the measured movements over the entire study period. Although deformation studies in Slovakia have a long-term tradition, complex interdisciplinary studies in urbanized areas are still lacking. This inspired our main objectives: to identify landslide kinematics and to reconstruct and define the rates of annual landslide movement obtained from geodetic measurement at the monitoring points. Our results demonstrate how landslide integrated diagnostics contribute to the detection of slope instability, with a maximum velocity of 60.82 mm/yr during the summer period. The precipitation effects are consistent with the Sv. Anton landslide displacement acceleration, and the following increases in total monthly precipitations are staggering compared to long-term monthly averages: July precipitation increased by 175.3%, August by 203.3%, and September by 198.1%.     

滑体的运动变形及观测要点

滑体运动变形特征是建立滑坡观测系统的主要依据。前者受控于滑面类型。1.直线型滑面上的滑体作整体运动,运动具等效效应;内部变形微弱,观测重点在地表位移;2.折线型滑面上的滑体亦作整体运动,变形较强,观测重点在深部位移和变形;3.凹弧型滑面上的滑体作整体旋转运动,变形较弱,观测重点在后缘和前缘;4.凸弧型滑面上的滑体作破碎旋转运动,变形较明显,观测重点在地表(尤其是剪出口处);5.复合型滑面上的滑体作分级分块运动,变形强烈,宜作综合观测。