山西省古交市公路震害预测

地震发生后,桥梁可能会遭受破坏,路基路面会发生液化,由地震引起的滑坡及建筑物的倒塌会堵塞公路,从这几个因素考虑,对公路系统的震害进行了分析研究,给出了对古交市公路震害进行预测的结果。     

山西省古交市建筑物震害预测

在对古交市建筑物进行调查研究的基础上,对各类建筑物进行了地震易损性分析,预测了在不同烈度下的各工作单元建筑物的总破坏面积,同时还进行了未来１０ａ的动态预测,得出若遭遇地震时,古交市市区震害最重,各镇和某些乡次之的结论     

古交市重要建筑物的震害预测

利用结构层间延伸率判定砖结构房屋破坏程度的震害预测方法，对古交市内8座重要建筑进行了震害预测。结果表明，古交市重要建筑具有良好的抗震设施。     

区域滑坡时间分布的自相似性研究

滑坡时间分布是滑坡预测和预警报研究的关键内容,对一定区域滑坡分布时间规律的研究可为区域滑坡预测和预警报提供参考和指导。本文以长江三峡库区滑坡为研究对象,对滑坡的年际分布和月份分布的相似性分别进行了研究。结果表明,两种时间的分布规律具有较好的相似性,且滑坡规模越接近,相似性程度越高。对滑坡时间分布的相似性研究,为应用分形理论研究该区域滑坡时间分布规律提供了理论基础。     

地震次生灾害预测和评价的研究

为了实现对地震次生灾害进行半定量化观测 ,以山西古交市为例 ,通过对次生灾害源分级和对预测区工作区域分级的方法 ,对该市的地震次生灾害进行了预测研究 ,结果表明 ,对次生灾害源分级和对预测区工作区域分区的方法是一种可行的半定量化预测地震次生灾害的方法     

老滑坡和断层影响下滑坡特征及处治措施研究

滑坡是我国最常见的地质灾害之一.老滑坡体加上断层破碎带的影响往往导致工程滑坡成因机理更为复杂.针对广东大潮高速公路K20工点滑坡案例的破坏情况,通过现场调研和地质勘测确定该滑坡工程的变形特征,探讨了受老滑坡及断层带控制的滑坡致灾机理,并且对该处滑坡进行了稳定性分析.结果表明:该处为老滑坡地貌,地质构造是形成老滑坡的控制...     

低频地质雷达新技术在滑坡勘查中的试验研究

滑坡地质灾害在我国西北、西南广泛分布,传统的滑坡调查是采用地面调查结合钻探、槽探、坑探等方法进行.采用高性价比的地球物理手段进行滑坡勘查,对查清滑坡结构、探索其成灾机理和地质灾害评估及预警有重要意义.本文研究目的旨在探索研究低频地质雷达方法在滑坡勘查中的应用效果,为地质灾害调查提供实用技术手段.通过理论分析和野外试验,建立了滑坡正演模型,得出了滑坡典型电磁波传播特征,并在西北和西南几处滑坡上开展了野外试验,分析了黄土滑坡和基岩滑坡的雷达剖面特征,给出了地球物理解释.试验结果表明:低频地质雷达技术能够划分滑坡地层结构,对滑面深度和滑床形态准确刻画,对落水洞位置准确定位,这充分证实地质雷达是一种实用有效的地质灾害调查与评价技术手段.     

降雨型与地震型滑坡试验研究

为了研究和探索降雨和地震诱发滑坡灾害的成因机理,对降雨型滑坡和地震型滑坡进行了物理模拟试验,系统地研究了坡度、坡体结构、降雨量、振动强度等因素对斜坡破坏变形的影响规律,探讨了降雨和地震诱发斜坡失稳破坏的主要模式和过程.对于降雨型滑坡,通过实验确定不同坡度滑坡的临界降雨量,发现临界降雨量与滑坡坡度呈幂指数关系.对于地震型...     

区域地震滑坡灾害定量评估研究进展和展望

地震滑坡是最常见的地震次生地质灾害之一,不仅带来环境恶化,通常还造成严重的人员伤亡和财产损失,因此备受关注。为了解地震滑坡研究发展趋势,凝练地震滑坡定量评估科学问题,文章对区域地震滑坡定量评估起源、发展现状、存在的问题及未来发展进行了系统总结。研究结果表明：(1)区域地震滑坡灾害定量评估研究兴起于20世纪80年代,经过50多年学者的不懈努力,取得了丰硕的成果。区域地震滑坡灾害定量评估研究面临着新的社会需求。(2)地震滑坡是地震动力、地质特征和地貌条件等多因素耦合作用的结果,地震滑坡现象只有考虑成因机理与动力过程方可解释,地震滑坡成因机理研究主要集中于强震条件下斜坡的动力响应规律分析。(3)地震滑坡发育特征、成因机理以及数据库建设等基础研究推动了地震滑坡灾害风险定量评估研究。区域地震滑坡灾害风险定量评估包括地震滑坡危险性定量评估、地震滑坡易损性定量评估、地震滑坡危害性定量评估等内容。(4)在区域地震滑坡灾害定量评估方面,还需要进一步探索区域地震滑坡灾害形成的系统性和时空分布规律性、改进和完善区域地震滑坡灾害风险定量评估方法、开拓区域地震滑坡灾害防治战略规划。     

降雨型滑坡时空预报新方法

地质条件和降雨是引起重庆地区山体滑坡的两个最主要条件. 文中在分析降雨型滑坡形成条件的基础上, 提出了将地质条件和降雨因素进行分级叠合的降雨型滑坡时空预报新方法. 首先, 利用多因素相互作用关系矩阵, 对某个地区或者某个边坡所在位置的地质条件进行半定量的评价和分级. 然后, 根据日最大降雨量和降雨过程的总降雨量, 对该地区降雨的严重程度进行分级. 最后将“地质条件影响因子”和“降雨影响因子”进行分级叠合, 得到了“滑坡易滑程度判别因子”, 并据此将滑坡按照其易滑度分为滑坡极易发生、滑坡易发生、滑坡不易发生和滑坡基本不发生4级. 通过对某个地区的一些危险边坡进行地质勘察, 结合比较准确的天气预报, 可以对该地区的降雨型滑坡进行较为准确的时空预测预报. 以鸡扒子滑坡为例, 验证了利用“双因素”分级叠合方法进行降雨型滑坡时空预报的可靠性和可行性.     

Investigation of a landslide in the new site of Badong County by integrated geophysical survey

An integrated geophysical survey which combines vertical seismic profile method, shallow reflection seismic method, electric sounding, soil temperature measurement and radioactive gas measurement was used to investigate Zhaoshuling landslide in the new site of Badong County and to assess the stability of the landslide. By rational use of these methods together with borehole geological profile and other geological information, the spatial distribution of the landslide body, the formations and structures within and without the landslide body were determined and the stability of the landslide was also assessed, thus making great contribution to the successful and rational investigation and assessment of the landslide.     

湖北省三峡库区秭归县头道河Ⅱ号滑坡特征及稳定性评价

针对湖北省三峡库区秭归县头道河Ⅱ号滑坡现状条件下的明显变形迹象,本文对该滑坡进行了综合的分析和研究,详细介绍了该滑坡的地质背景及滑坡特征。采用剩余推理法,对滑坡体在各种不同工况下的稳定性作了科学分析,并对滑坡体在三峡水库蓄水以后的稳定性作了合理评价。结果表明,滑坡体在目前状态下基本稳定,三峡水库蓄水以后,将对滑坡体稳定性产生较大影响,极有可能导致滑坡体失稳,据此结合工程实际提出了一些可行的防治措施及建议。     

联合DBSCAN聚类采样和SVM分类的滑坡易发性评价

针对基于机器学习的滑坡易发性评价中非滑坡样本选取不规范导致的分类精度较低问题,本文提出联合基于密度的噪声应用空间聚类（Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise,DBSCAN）采样策略和支持向量机（Support Vector Machine,SVM）分类方法的DBSCAN-SVM滑坡易发性评价模型。首先,基于DBSCAN聚类和空间分析选取非滑坡样本;然后,将样本数据代入SVM分类模型进行训练与验证,预测并提取SVM分类中属于滑坡的概率,获得滑坡易发性;最后,以四川省绵阳市为试验区,预测滑坡易发性概率,基于滑坡易发性精度与分级结果等要素,与传统非滑坡样本采集策略的SVM滑坡易发性评价模型进行对比,并结合实际情况对DBSCAN-SVM模型评价结果进行分析。研究结果表明,相比传统SVM滑坡易发性评价模型,本文提出的DBSCAN-SVM滑坡易发性评价模型在高易发区和极高易发区中包含的滑坡样本数量较多,准确率、召回率、AUC、F1分数均得到提高,精度较高。     

Evidence for repeated re‐activation of old landslides under forest

Local reactivations of landslides in forests are rarely reported in landslide catalogues. The occurrence of hillslope sections with fresh morphological landslide features in forested old, deep‐seated landslides, however, suggests that landslide reactivations are not restricted to residential areas. In this study, a dendrogeomorphological analysis of beech stands was used to investigate the periods of reactivation of a deep‐seated rotational slide in the Koppenberg forest (Flemish Ardennes, Belgium). The relation to rainfall and the correspondence to landslide reactivations reported in a nearby built‐up area were also analysed. A dendrometrical study preceding the dendrochronological analysis proved that, compared with the nearby reference site, trees on the Koppenberg forest landslide site were significantly more inclined and showed more knees, indicating that the landslide site has not stabilized yet. As the sampled trees are younger than the landslide, dendrochronology did not allow determination of the year in which the landslide was initiated, but analysis of two different tree ring width parameters (i.e. ring eccentricity and growth change) calculated for trees sampled on the Koppenberg landslide and the reference site proved to be of great help in determining the temporal sequence of landslide reactivation. During the past 80 years, several periods indicative of local reactivations (i.e. 1943–1945, 1949–1952, 1967–1970, 1972–1977, 1979–1981, 1988–1997) were found within the investigated landslide, but delineation of the spatial extent of the reactivations during these indicative periods was not straightforward. These periods generally correspond to years with above‐average rainfall. Finally, the fact that at least 34% of the years indicative of reactivation of the Koppenberg forest landslide correspond to a year in which a landslide reactivation was reported in the Flemish Ardennes suggests that in built‐up areas, apart from anthropogenic interventions, natural triggering factors remain very important. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大型高位堆积体滑坡稳定性分析与数值模拟

青藏高原边缘地带堆积体滑坡的发生与地质构造、强降雨、地震等作用密切相关,其中多数属于大型高位堆积体滑坡。为研究其发生机理与稳定性,以舟曲县江顶崖大型高位堆积体滑坡为研究对象,首先,从滑坡所处的地理位置、地质条件等出发,分析滑坡的概况与成因;其次,基于传统传递系数法划分滑坡计算模型,提出滑坡稳定性分析的变坡法;最后,采用Midas GTS NX软件对江顶崖滑坡自然工况下稳定性进行数值模拟分析,并与传统及改进算法结果进行对比。研究结果表明：(1)研究区的地形坡度、地层岩性条件以及活动断裂、历史强震作用是滑坡发生的内因,外因是连续强降雨作用使岩土体力学强度降低以及暴雨导致滑坡前缘的白龙江水位上涨、流速加快,冲刷坡脚导致前缘失稳,滑坡中后缘发生牵引式滑动;(2)运用传递系数法计算折线形滑坡稳定性时,滑面倾角变化值大于10°会导致结果出现较大误差,应用改进的“等分均匀变坡法”可以减小误差,以江顶崖滑坡为计算实例并结合数值模拟验证该方法的有效性;(3)自然工况下模拟发现,滑体的前缘主要表现为水平滑移,滑体的中后部局部主要表现为垂直下沉,而滑坡前缘则主要表现为隆起,因此,滑坡部分区域出现了较大的位移...     

Landslide Amplification by Liquefaction of Runout‐Path Material after the 2008 Wenchuan (M 8·0) Earthquake,China

Here, we propose that an earthquake can trigger the failure of a landslide mass while simultaneously triggering liquefaction of runout‐path materials before the arrival of the landslide mass, thus greatly increasing the size and mobility of an overriding landslide. During the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, about 60 000 landslides were triggered, directly resulting in about 20 000 casualties. While these landslides mainly originated from steep slopes, some landslides with high mobility formed in colluvial valley deposits. Among these, the most catastrophic was the Xiejiadian landslide in Pengzhou city, which traveled hundreds of meters before coming to rest. Through field investigation and laboratory testing, we conclude that this landslide primarily formed from colluvial deposits in the valley and secondarily from failure of slopes in granitic rock located uphill. Much of the granitic slope failure was deposited in the upper part of the travel path (near the slide head); the remainder was dispersed throughout the main landslide deposit. Superposition of deposits at the landslide toe indicates that landslide debris derived from colluvial soil was deposited first. The deposits at the landslide toe displayed flow characteristics, such as fine materials comprising basal layers and large boulders covering the deposit surface. We hypothesize that the main part of the landslide resulted from seismogenic liquefaction of valley colluvium, rather than from liquefaction potentially caused by undrained loading from the granitic slope failures impacting the colluvium. To examine the likelihood that seismogenic liquefaction occurred, we took samples from different areas of the landslide deposit and performed undrained cyclic shear tests on them in the laboratory. The results showed that the sandy soils that comprise most of the deposit are highly liquefiable under seismic loading. Therefore, we conclude that liquefaction of the colluvium in the valley during the earthquake was the main reason for this rapid (~46 m/s) long‐runout (1·7 km) landslide. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.