MM5模式中不同对流参数化方案的数值模拟

MM5模式中有多种积云参数化方案可供选择,不同参数化方案及分辨率对降水预报有很大影响。本文利用4种积云参数化方案(GR,KF,BM,AK)对辽东半岛一次大暴雨过程进行试验,结果表明,不同的参数化方案,对强降水落点及强度的模拟,结果差别较大。模拟较好的是GR方案,最差的是AK方案;4种积云对流参数化方案模拟的海平面气压场差别较大,其中GR方案模拟出造成2005年第5号台风暴雨的高低压系统和中尺度气旋;粗网格采用一定的积云对流参数化后,可在一定程度再现一些中尺度特征;4种方案由于闭合假设不同,模拟的云物理特征存在很大差别,这种差别对各种天气要素的准确预报会产生一定的影响。     

WRF模式物理参数化方案对一次局地大暴雨预报的影响研究

基于WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式及其3Dvar(3-Dimentional Variational)资料同化系统,采用36、12、4 km嵌套网格进行快速更新循环同化和不同的微物理及积云对流参数化方案对比试验,对2011年5月8日鲁中一次局地大暴雨过程进行了研究。结果表明,快速更新循环同化地面观测资料是影响模式降水落区预报准确性的关键因素,不同的微物理和积云对流参数化方案主要影响降水强度预报。采用不同的微物理参数化方案和积云对流参数化方案进行降水预报对比试验表明,LIN方案和WSM6(WRF Single-Moment 6-class)微物理参数化方案对降水预报均较好,LIN方案降水预报较WSM6方案略强。4 km网格预报使用K-F (Kain-Fritsch)积云对流参数化方案或不使用积云对流参数化方案,预报的降水均较好。4 km网格使用旧的K-F积云对流参数化方案,预报的近地层大气风场偏弱,导致大气动力抬升作用偏弱,从而造成模式降水预报偏弱。     

MM5模式中积云参数化方案在西南地区适应性的进一步试验分析

针对四川盆地4次暴雨过程,利用MM5中尺度数值模式,进行了Grell和Kuo对流参数化方案及两重区域采用不同方案组合的数值试验,分析了不同试验对降水的模拟能力。结果表明,不同试验方案在降水落区、强度、演变及降水性质分配上存在一定程度的差异。细网格区域降水强度及落区主要由本区域所采用的积云参数化方案所决定。模式采用Kuo方案预报的雨区少动,主要降水落区偏西、偏南,降水强度偏弱,采用Grell方案与粗网格采用Kuo方案而细网格采用Grell方案预报结果接近,能够较好地预报雨区东移,降水强度预报更接近实况。Kuo方案以对流降水为主,Grell方案模拟的以非对流降水与对流降水两种性质降水各占一定比例,有小幅度变化,可能更能反映实际降水性质。过程分析结合统计检验表明,两重区域均采用Grell方案预报效果相对较好。同时也看到,没有哪种对流参数化方案是完备的。发展具有区域特色的对流参数方案有着重要和实际意义。      

华南中尺度暴雨数值预报的不确定性与集合预报试验

利用非静力MM5模式,分析了不同积云对流参数化方案对华南暖区暴雨数值预报的不确定性影响,进行了中尺度暴雨模式扰动集合预报试验。不同对流参数化方案的对流凝结加热引起不同的局地温度扰动,通过大气内部的热力动力过程,导致垂直速度的差异,进而影响网格尺度和次网格尺度降水时间、地点和强度。后续降水再通过凝结潜热释放形成新的扰动源。不同积云对流参数化方案还可引起扰动源能量传播方式不同,最终使模拟大气的动力和热力结构有差异。针对物理过程的不确定性,使用两种模式扰动方法构造集合预报扰动模式,第一种方法是随机组合不同积云对流参数化方案和边界层方案,第二种方法是扰动Grell积云对流参数化方案中主要参数振幅。集合预报结果表明,第一种方法的集合预报效果优于第二种方法,仅扰动参数振幅值似乎还不足以反映华南暴雨预报的不确定性。单一的确定性预报在暴雨落区和强度方面的可信度不稳定,集合产品能给华南暴雨过程提供更有用价值的指导预报,具有较高的应用价值。     

积云参数化方案中云底质量通量的限制及在高分辨率模式中的应用

对SAS积云参数化方案中的云底质量通量进行限制并将其应用到华南区域高分辨率模式降水预报中,分别对强对流个例和弱对流个例进行模拟和比较,分析了限制云底质量通量之后的积云参数化方案对模式降水预报的影响,并探讨了不同大小的云底质量通量限制对预报结果的敏感性。试验结果表明,对积云参数化方案进行闭合时采用不稳定能量释放假设要比原来的准平衡闭合假设更适用于中小尺度模式。对积云参数化方案的云底质量通量进行限制以后可以有效地消除对流参数化在高分辨率模式中引起的虚假降水,同时又能够合理地引入一些次网格尺度的弱对流的影响,从而改进模式的降水预报效果。敏感性试验结果表明,随着云底质量通量限制程度的变弱,对流参数化方案对模式降水预报的影响会逐渐增强;在一定大小范围内的云底质量通量限制下,强对流个例的总降水量预报结果对于不同大小的限制不如弱对流个例敏感。对两种不同的云底质量通量限制方式进行比较发现,在云底质量通量较大时完全关闭对流参数化方案可以更有效避免对流参数化引起的虚假降水。      

公里尺度分辨率WRF模拟梅雨暴雨对积云对流参数化的敏感性试验研究

本文利用中尺度模式WRF V4.0.2(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,Version 4.0.2)对浙江省两次梅雨锋暴雨过程进行数值模拟,分别选用WSM6和Thompson云微物理方案、YSU和MYJ边界层方案、以及11种对流参数化方案进行试验,探究不同积云对流参数化方案对梅雨锋暴雨的1 km高分辨率预报的影响,结果表明：（1）在对各试验的降水预报评估过程中,使用传统点对点方法和邻域法都能客观表现出各试验的预报水平,而邻域检验法能更客观地评估模式对小范围强降水的预报水平。（2）三类积云对流方案（包括：无积云对流方案、传统积云对流方案和尺度自适应积云对流方案）都能较好地模拟出小雨降水的发生情况,但随着降水强度增强至暴雨、大暴雨量级时,尺度自适应的积云对流方案对降水的预报结果有明显改善。（3）在不同微物理和边界层组合方案下,尺度自适应积云对流方案的模拟结果差异更显著,而传统积云对流方案的模拟结果的效果差异不明显。（4）在1～10 km的“灰色区域”范围内,当网格分辨率逐渐提高到1 km时,尺度自适应积云对流方案较传统积云对流方案对模式的预报结...     

不同物理过程参数化方案对梅雨锋暴雨的敏感性试验

以2005年7月上旬江淮流域的一次梅雨锋暴雨为研究对象,选取WRF模式中Lin和Ferrier两个微物理方案和KF、NKF、Betts-Miller-Janjic三个积云参数化方案,经过组合得到6组方案,进行两重网格嵌套模拟,对数值模拟结果进行分析比较。通过分析得出如下结论：6个方案均能模拟出降水雨带的走向、降水中心,其中Ferri-er和NKF方案及Ferrier和Betts-Miller-Janjic方案模拟的降水强度和分布与实况最接近;在模拟降水量时采用微物理方案Ferrier初始阶段效果好,采用微物理方案Lin在后期效果好;当微物理方案相同时,积云对流参数化方案的变化对垂直速度、假相当位温、相对比湿的反映敏感;粗网格采用一定的积云对流参数化后,可一定程度再现α中尺度特征。     

不同云降水方案对一次登陆台风的降水模拟

利用美国最新发展的新一代中尺度数值预报模式(WRF),研究了不同云降水方案对一次登陆台风的降水模拟问题,结果表明,在网格距适当小的情况下,同时采用积云对流参数化方案和云微物理方案(Kessler方案)时,其降水预报优于只使用积云对流参数化方案时的预报;在台风降水模拟的初期,Kain-Fritsch方案比Betts-Miller方案产生降水更快,更接近实况降水;在台风登陆后随时间的延长,对流降水重要性逐步下降,网格尺度降水逐渐增强。     

WRF模式对青藏高原南坡夏季降水的模拟分析

利用中尺度数值模式WRF研究积云对流参数化方案、网格嵌套技术和模式分辨率对陡峭的青藏高原南坡夏季降水模拟的影响。对2006年7月青藏高原南坡地区降水的模拟分析表明:降水对积云对流参数化方案的选择很敏感,不同方案模拟的结果差异显著,采用Grell-Devenyi质量通量方案时的模拟效果优于其他方案。在此基础上,通过5种试验方案比较发现,使用积云对流参数化方案、提高模式分辨率和应用网格嵌套技术能改善降水强度和空间分布的模拟,组合使用时模拟的降水与观测资料更接近。它们均能改进风场,使得水汽的输送和辐合过程的模拟更加准确;还能影响大气的垂直加热状态,导致不同的对流发生,使垂直速度的分布趋于合理。未使用积云对流参数化方案时,大气湿度偏小,而模式分辨率和网格嵌套技术对大气湿度的影响不大。      

多积云参数化方案热带气旋路径集合预报试验

利用MM5模式采用5种积云参数化方案选项研究了2004～2006年共8个热带气旋路径的集合预报。结果表明，热带气旋路径预报对积云参数化方案的选取是敏感的，积云参数化方案之间优劣互补，而选择无积云参数化方案选项对热带气旋路径的预报有积极的贡献。采用3种路径集合预报方案研究的结果表明，集合方法对热带气旋路径预报有明显的改善，其中无积云参数化Grell、Betts—Miller和Kain—Fritsch4种积云参数化方案选项组合的集合预报效果最好，平均路径误差最小。     

应用于双向套网格模式的一种变格距差分解法

本文提出了一种用于双向套网格模式的变格距差分计算方案。该方案在不同格距的网格区采用不同精度的差分格式，它自然地连接粗细网格，避免了一般套网格方案在粗细网格相重合点上进行的重复计算。用解析法和数值试验证明了:它与其它一些变格距差分格式相比，对短波的穿透能力有明显改进，虚假的反射也较小。应用该方案建立了正压原始方程双向套网格模式，并采用空间分解和时间分解计算方法。这不仅使二维问题转化为二个一维问题，而且二维套网格也可简化为一维均匀网格和一维套网格两部分，从而使计算和程序简化。用理想场为初值所做的一系列数值试验表明，该模式中的波可以自由进出粗细网格区，计算稳定。最后，还用该模式做了台风路径预报试验，给出了一些试验结果。     

A grid nesting method for large-eddy simulation of planetary boundary-layer flows

A method for performing nested grid calculations with a large-eddy simulation code is described. A common numerical method is used for all meshes, and the grid architecture consists of a single outer or coarse grid, and nested or fine grids, which overlap in some common region. Inter-grid communication matches the velocity, pressure and potential temperature fields in the overlap region. Resolved and sub-grid scale (SGS) turbulent fluxes and kinetic energy on the fine grid are averaged to the coarse grid using a conservation rule equivalent to Germano's identity used to develop dynamic SGS models.Simulations of a slightly convective, strong shear planetary boundary layer were carried out with varying surface-layer resolutions. Grid refinements in the (x, y, z) directions of up to (5, 5, 2) times were employed. Two-way interaction solutions on the coarse and fine meshes are successfully matched in the overlap region on an instantaneous basis, and the turbulent motions on the fine grid blend smoothly into the coarse grid across the grid interface. With surface-layer grid nesting, significant increases in resolved eddy fluxes and variances are found. The energy-scale content of the vertical velocity, and hence vertical turbulent fluxes, appear to be most influenced by increased grid resolution. Vertical velocity spectra show that the dominant scale shifts towards higher wavenumbers (smaller scales) and the magnitude of the peak energy is increased by more than a factor of 3 with finer resolution. Outside of the nested region the average heat and momentum fluxes and spectra are slightly influenced by the fine resolution in the surface layer. From these results we conclude that fine resolution is required to resolve the details of the turbulent motions in the surface layer. At the same time, however, increased resolution in the surface layer does not appreciably alter the ensemble statistics of the resolved and SGS motions outside of the nested region.     

Tests for individual Sulfate－Containing Particles in Urban Atmosphere in Beijing

Thin film methods and X ray energy dispersive technique were applied to analyze sulfate-containing particles in Beijing in order to examine their features and sources. Atmospheric aerosol particles were collected on electron mi-croscope meshes according to two size ranges: coarse particles (r>0.5μm) and fine particles (0.5μm≥r≥0.1μm) by using a two-stage impactor. It was found fiat more than seventy percent of the fine particles and about twenty percent of the coarse particles were sulfate-containing particles. These particles were formed mainly through heterogeneous nucleation. The element composition analyses revealed that the atmospheric aerosol particles in Beijing were domi-nated by crustal particles and construction dust.     

Conditional stochastic simulation model for spatial downscaling for assessing the effects of climate change on hydro-meteorological variables

The current study examines the recently proposed “bias correction and stochastic analogues” (BCSA) statistical spatial downscaling technique and attempts to improve it by conditioning coarse resolution data when generating replicates. While the BCSA method reproduces the statistical features of the observed fine data, this existing model does not replicate the observed coarse spatial pattern, and subsequently, the cross-correlation between the observed coarse data and downscaled fine data with the model cannot be preserved. To address the dissimilarity between the BCSA downscaled data and observed fine data, a new statistical spatial downscaling method, “conditional stochastic simulation with bias correction” (BCCS), which employs the conditional multivariate distribution and principal component analysis, is proposed. Gridded observed climate data of mean daily precipitation (mm/day) covering a month at 1/8° for a fine resolution and at 1° for a coarse resolution over Florida for the current and future periods were used to verify and cross-validate the proposed technique. The observed coarse and fine data cover the 50-year period from 1950 to1999, and the future RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios cover the 100-year period from 2000 to 2099. The verification and cross-validation results show that the proposed BCCS downscaling method serves as an effective alternative means of downscaling monthly precipitation levels to assess climate change effects on hydrological variables. The RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 GCM scenarios are successfully downscaled.     

Size distributions of ambient air particles and enrichment factor analyses of metallic elements at Taichung Harbor near the Taiwan Strait

This work attempts to characterize metallic elements associated with atmospheric particulate matter on a dry deposition plate, a TE-PUF high-volume air sampler and a universal air sampler. Dry deposition fluxes of particulates and concentrations of total suspended particulate, fine (PM_2.5) and coarse (PM_2.5–10) particulate matters were collected at Taichung harbor sampling sites from August 2004 to January 2005. Chemical analyses of metallic elements were made using a flame atomic absorption spectrophotometer coupled with hollow cathode lamps. Concentrations of metal elements in the forms of coarse particles and fine particles as well as the coarse/fine particulate ratios were presented. Statistical methods such as correlation analysis, principal component analysis and enrichment factor analysis were performed to compare the chemical components and identify possible emission sources at the sampling sites. Metallic elements of Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Ni and Mg had higher EF_crust ratios in winter and spring than in summer and autumn. Diurnal and nocturnal variations of metallic element concentrations in fine and coarse particles were also discussed.     

多层套细网格台风预报模式

本文提出一个多层套细网格台风路径数值预报模式,粗网格的预报区域包括两半球的低纬地区。粗细网格的匹配采用单方向衔接。初始台风环流是由台风中心海平面气压与最大风速所确定的一个模型环流。1984年台风季节实时预报试验取得了良好的结果。      

Meteorological and chemical controls on the vertical distribution of Beijing summer coarse and fine aerosols

Vertical profiles of fine and coarse aerosol particles were determined by cascade impactors at the me-teorological tower in Beijing for three days and one night, July 18-23, 1980. Coarse mode aerosols showed a maximum concentration at 47 m when there was an inversion at about 140 m height, and a rather uniform distribution when there was no inversion. This may indicate a two-component origin of coarse particles at the tower site, one being surface dust and the other being tall stack emissions. Fine mode aerosols showed more complex vertical profiles. Median particle size distributions of most metals were bimodal, indicating distinct coarse particle dispersion and fine accumulation mode processes. A chemical thermodynamic cal-culation indicates that fine mode Si can result from the reduction of silica to volatile SiO during coal combustion with limited air supply, a process which should release substantial amounts of carbon monoxide to the atmosphere.     

沙尘传输路径上气溶胶浓度与干沉降通量的粒径分布特征

利用2002年春季中国北京、青岛和日本福冈3个地区的分级气溶胶浓度资料,结合改进的Wil-liams模型,分析了沙尘传输路径上空气动力学直径≤11μm气溶胶(PM11)浓度和干沉降通量的粒径分布特征,并估算了黄海海域春季PM11的干沉降通量及不同粒径气溶胶的贡献。结果表明:3个地区PM11浓度粒径分布在非沙尘时期呈双峰分布,两个峰值分别出现在细颗粒(<2.1μm)部分和粗颗粒(2.1～11μm)部分;沙尘时期,3个地区PM11浓度粒径分布均趋于单峰分布,峰值位于粗颗粒部分,并且越靠近沙尘源地,这种趋势越明显。较强沙尘天气时期,粗颗粒部分的浓度峰值粒径从沙尘源地附近到黄海西岸、东岸呈降低趋势,但在一般沙尘天气时期,这种现象并不明显。沙尘时期和非沙尘时期,3个地区粗颗粒的干沉降通量均随粒径增加而增大,细颗粒的干沉降通量随粒径的变化不明显。虽然沙尘时期粗颗粒沉降通量较非沙尘时期有明显增加,但粗颗粒对PM11干沉降通量的贡献与非沙尘时期相比,并没有明显的变化。较强沙尘天气时期,3个地区粗颗粒的干沉降通量明显高于一般沙尘天气时期;细颗粒的干沉降通量较一般沙尘天气时期略有增加。黄海海域春季沙尘时期PM11的干沉降通量约为31.70～58.59mg.m-2.d-1,非沙尘时期约为8.33～15.94mg.m-2.d-1。粗颗粒是黄海海域春季PM11干沉降通量的主要贡献者,约占PM11干沉降通量的94.2%以上。     

The adjustment of the wind field to small scale topography in a numerical weather prediction model

Numerical experiments are performed to test one reasonably economical method of producing regional forecasts. Starting with initial conditions interpolated from a 20 hour coarse grid Northern Hemisphere forecast, a fine mesh model is integrated for a further period of 4 hours over a limited area. The fine mesh is located over the north‐eastern part of North America and its resolution is sufficient to re‐produce topographic features such as the St. Lawrence and Richelieu Valleys. The resulting forecast at hour 24 is then compared with the coarse mesh prediction for the same time. The comparison reveals how the horizontal and vertical components of the wind are affected by the small scale topography. In particular, the channelling effect of the main valleys is demonstrated.     

积云对流参数化对一交梅雨锋暴雨过程影响的模拟检验

应用１９８８年版日本谱模式ＪＳＭ,对比分析了Ａｒａｋａｗａ－Ｓｃｋａｗａ－Ｓｃｈｕｂｅｒｔ、Ｋａｉｎ－Ｆｒｉｔｓｃｈ、ＫｕｏＡｎｔｈｅｓ和Ｇａｄｄ－Ｋｅｅｒｓ等几种积云对流参数化方案在梅雨锋暴雨对流系统模拟中的表现。