A voluntary reduction in the commercial catch of rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) in a New Zealand fishery

We describe the development and application of a management procedure (decision rule) that resulted in a voluntary reduction in the commercial catch of spiny rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) in the lower east coast of North Island of New Zealand. The management procedure was developed from an accepted assessment of the CRA 4 (Wellington‐Hawke's Bay) fishery, which used an integrated length‐based assessment model fitted to commercial fishery catch‐per‐unit‐effort (CPUE) biomass indices, commercial length‐frequency data, and tag‐recapture data. The assessment model had been Bayesian, and used the joint posterior distribution of parameters to predict the effect of 384 alternative harvest control rules on the future size of the CRA 4 stock. The harvest control rules all used CPUE as their input, and generated annual changes in catch, which were then simulated by the population dynamics of the operating model. Uncertainty was added to evaluations through observation error, added to the simulated CPUE observations, and stochastic serial auto‐correlation variation in recruitment. We describe how this management procedure was used to effect a voluntary reduction in catch to address the problem of a rapidly declining population.     

Evolution of operational management procedures for the South African West Coast rock lobster (Jasus lalandii) fishery

The commercial fishery for Jasus lalandii, the South Africa West Coast rock lobster, began in the late 1800s and at its peak in the early 1950s yielded an annual catch of 18 000 t. Although this annual catch has dropped to only some 2000 t over recent years, the fishery remains South Africa's third most valuable for landed value. The primary reason for the low total allowable catch (TAC) over these recent years has been a marked drop in somatic growth rate that occurred at the end of the 1980s, for reasons that remain unexplained. A key problem in formulating TAC recommendations with longer‐term objectives in mind, has been uncertainties about likely future trends, particularly in somatic growth and recruitment. To address this problem, an “operational management procedure” (OMP) was adopted in 1997 and has twice been re‐evaluated and modified (in 2000 and 2003) in the light of further data and changing perceptions of resource dynamics. The history of this process is reviewed, concentrating on the most recent modification. In particular, a summary is given of the process by which the merits of alternative management procedures were evaluated over a range of important uncertainties about the dynamics of the resource. This summary includes a discussion of the key trade‐offs between resource rebuilding, future TAC trends and TAC variability, and the eventual choice that was made. The paper concludes by listing a number of lessons learnt concerning best practice for OMP development as this process evolved.     

隶属函数的方法进行等级预报及隶属函数的构造

模糊数学在气象、水文预报领域中已经得到广泛的应用。其中，用隶属函数的方法作预报对象的多等级长期预报，能取得较好的效果。本文简要介绍用隶属函数的方法进行长期多等级预报的基本思路和步骤，重点介绍在作上述预报过程中，构造隶属函数的一种方法。     

氢氧化镁共沉淀测定低浓度磷方法在东海赤潮高发区的应用

2003年5月将Karl and Tien(1992)提出的Mg(OH)2共沉淀方法应用于东海赤潮高发区水体中磷酸盐的调查。本实验条件下方法的检测限为0.004μmol/L。将该方法与传统的磷钼兰方法进行对比,常规磷钼兰法高于共沉淀法。说明水体中可能存在大量酸性条件下不稳定的磷化合物,且其不能被Mg(OH)2共沉淀,如1-磷酸核糖。此时,共沉淀法的测定值更接近水体中真实的正磷酸盐含量。共沉淀法可为赤潮爆发过程中低磷阶段的样品分析提供较可靠数据。用共沉淀法提供的测定数据分析赤潮爆发过程中水体中磷酸盐的变化,长江口磷酸盐总的分布趋势是沿岸含量较高,向外海逐渐递减。赤潮爆发过程中,随着赤潮藻类增殖,水体中磷酸盐被大量消耗,表层磷酸盐浓度迅速降低;赤潮消亡阶段,表层水体磷酸盐浓度逐渐回升,而底层由于藻类死亡后逐渐沉降磷酸盐浓度升高。     

Gyromat 2000陀螺经纬仪的应用

结合Gyrom at 2000陀螺经纬仪工作原理,对其测量过程和影响测量精度的主要因素进行分析讨论。并通过实验得出有益的结论。     

长清大学园区高架桥关键工序的施工方案

长清大学园区高架桥全长3.533 km,是济菏高速公路工程14个合同段中唯一一个全部是桥梁结构的标段。按照本工程的地理环境、地势条件、设计特点以及业主对工期和质量的要求,编制了一份以灌注桩和现浇连续箱梁为主要工序的施工方案。     

Artificial neural network-based storm surge forecast model: Practical application to Sakai Minato,Japan

The present study describes a novel way of a systematic and objective selection procedure for the development of an Artificial Neural Network-based storm Surge Forecast Model (ANN-SFM) with the 5, 12 and 24 h-lead times and its application to Sakai Minato area on the Tottori coast, Japan. The selection procedure guides how to determine the superiority of the best performing model in terms of the appropriate combination of unit number in the hidden layer and parameter in the input layer. In the application of ANN-SFM to Sakai Minato, it is found that the best 5 and 12 h-forecast ANN-SFMs are established with the most suitable set of 70 units (the number of hidden neurons) and the input components of surge level, sea level pressure, the depression rate of sea level pressure, longitude, latitude, central atmospheric pressure and highest wind speed. The best 24 h-forecast ANN-SFM is determined with 160 units and the input parameters of surge level, sea level pressure, the depression rate of sea level pressure, longitude and latitude. The proposed method of the selection procedure is able to be adaptable to other coastal locations for the development of the artificial neural network-based storm surge forecast model as establishing the superiority of the most relevant set combining unit numbers and input parameters.     

A Model for Loadout Analysis and Its Programming Implementation

- In this paper, the authors use the finite element method to conduct a special static analysis for the loadout procedure of offshore structures. By introducing a variable Xmove (the distance between the relative coordinate system fixed in the moving upper structure and the absolute coordinate system fixed on slideway), adopting substructure to treat the upper structure, and using the elastic foundation beam to model the slideway, the model for the analysis of the loadoul procedure is established. On the basis of this model, DASOS-J loadout program, a program system for the static analysis of loadout offshore structures, is also developed.     

基于重点抽样法的固定式平台结构风险评价研究

在建立海上油气设施的风险分析系统时,对由台风引发的极端海况造成的结构失效进行风险评估是1个十分重要的问题。为了建立实用可靠的风险评价方法,本文使用基于重点抽样法的随机模拟技术,对渤海海域CB12-C井组平台结构进行了全概率法失效概率计算,并在此基础上进行了平台结构的风险评价。该方法是1种适用于固定式海洋平台的定量风险评价方法,充分考虑了平台结构风险分析过程中各种不确定性的影响,极大提高了定量风险评价结果的可靠性。     

黄颡鱼(Pelteobagrus fulvidraco) 爱德华氏菌(Edwardsiella ictaluri)感染的动态病理学及病原分布研究

采用病理形态学方法与免疫组化法进行了黄颡鱼(Pelteobagrus fulvidraco) 爱德华氏菌(Edwardsiella ictaluri)感染的动态病理学与病原分布研究。结果表明, 感染鱼主要临床特征为游动缓慢, 旋游, 体表出血, 腹部膨大, 腹腔内充有淡黄色或含血的腹水, 肝、脾与肾肿大, 出血; 病理组织学上, 感染后8—12h, 肝细胞空泡变性和间质性肾炎; 24h后肝出现局灶性坏死, 肾小管上皮变性和更严重的间质性肾炎, 脾出血和淋巴细胞坏死; 48h 后, 肝、脾、肾坏死更严重, 致感染鱼死亡。感 染后8h, 在肝脏检测到病原菌阳性信号, 12h 后, 在肝、肾、脾中检出阳性信号, 48h 后, 在肝、肾、脾、心、脑、鳃、肠道等都检出阳性信号, 表明爱德华氏菌腹腔注射感染黄颡鱼首先侵袭肝、肾、脾, 然后是心脏、脑、鳃、胃肠等。