Empirical estimates of the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on the global surface temperature

The influence of different natural (solar and volcanic activity) and anthropogenic (carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere) factors on the growth of the Earth’s global surface temperature (GST) is analyzed on observational evidence by the estimation of Granger causality and a new method proposed for evaluating the long-term effect. The statistically significant influence of all three factors on GST is revealed in the analysis of sequences of data. The contribution of the anthropogenic factor is most important, whereas the influence of solar and volcanic activity is weaker by an order of magnitude.     

全球变化科学中的碳循环研究进展与趋向

全球碳循环研究是全球变化科学中的研究重点之一,在过去的研究中已取得了长足的发展,但对碳源和汇的定量研究还是今后需要进一步加强的工作。综述了近年来全球碳库储量研究的主要进展,分析了岩石圈、陆地生态系统、海洋、大气以及人类社会等碳库的储量、在全球碳循环中的地位及其作用机制,针对与全球升温事件密切相关的人为碳排放问题专门作了论述,并结合最新的研究成果,对"未知汇"问题的新的研究方向作了阐述。碳循环研究已经进入一个新的发展时期,国际科学组织与各国政府对碳循环研究的关注与投入正逐步增加,但其关注的内容并不一致。分别以地球系统科学联盟的全球碳计划和美国的北美碳计划为例,介绍了国际碳循环研究的重点与趋势。最后提出了今后全球碳循环研究需要关注的一些领域：陆地碳循环机理与源汇定量研究;海洋大尺度碳循环及其机理研究;人类社会在碳循环中的作用研究等。     

Driving forces of indirect carbon emissions from household consumption in China: an input–output decomposition analysis

Human activities have become a major source of Earth’s climate change, which brings the rise of surface air temperature and subsurface ocean temperature. Therefore, promoting sustainable consumption and production patterns is imperative to minimize the use of natural resources and reduce emissions of pollutants. This study uses Economic Input–Output Life-Cycle Assessment method and structural decomposition model to identify the driving forces that influence the changes in carbon emissions from China’s residential consumption in the context of sustainable consumption. The findings of the study are as follows: (1) indirect carbon emissions from Chinese household consumption increase rapidly over time; (2) the largest carbon dioxide emitting sector turns from agriculture sector in 1992 into service sector in 2007; (3) the consumption level and the emission intensity are the main drivers that influence the change in indirect carbon emissions; and (4) the factor of consumption level presents positive effect on the emissions, while the emission intensity effect plays a negative role. Besides, the factors of urbanization, production structure, population size and consumption structure also promote the rapid increase in carbon emissions.     

Change trend of natural gas hydrates in permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (1960–2050) under the background of global warming and their impacts on carbon emissions

Global warming and the response to it have become a topic of concern in today’s society and are also a research focus in the global scientific community. As the world’s third pole, the global warming amplifier, and the starting region of China’s climate change, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is extremely sensitive to climate change. The permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in natural gas hydrates (NGHs) resources. Under the background of global warming, whether the NGHs will be disassociated and enter the atmosphere as the air temperature rises has become a major concern of both the public and the scientific community. Given this, this study reviewed the trend of global warming and accordingly summarized the characteristics of the temperature increase in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Based on this as well as the distribution characteristics of the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, this study investigated the changes in the response of the NGHs to global warming, aiming to clarify the impacts of global warming on the NGHs in the permafrost of the plateau. A noticeable response to global warming has been observed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Over the past decades, the increase in the mean annual air temperature of the plateau was increasingly high and more recently. Specifically, the mean annual air temperature of the plateau changed at a rate of approximately 0.308–0.420°C/10a and increased by approximately 1.54–2.10°C in the past decades. Moreover, the annual mean ground temperature of the shallow permafrost on the plateau increased by approximately 1.155–1.575°C and the permafrost area decreased by approximately 0.34×10⁶ km² from about 1.4×10⁶ km² to 1.06×10⁶ km² in the past decades. As indicated by simulated calculation results, the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has decreased by 29–39 m in the past 50 years, with the equivalent of (1.69 – 2.27)×10¹⁰–(1.12–1.51)×10¹² m³ of methane (CH₄) being released due to NGHs dissociation. It is predicted that the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost will decrease by 23 m and 27 m, and dissociated and released NGHs will be the equivalent of (1.34–88.8)×10¹⁰ m³ and (1.57–104)×10¹⁰ m³ of CH₄, respectively by 2030 and 2050. Considering the positive feedback mechanism of NGHs on global warming and the fact that CH₄ has a higher greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide, the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will emit more CH₄ into the atmosphere, which is an important trend of NGHs under the background of global warming. Therefore, the NGHs are destructive as a time bomb and may lead to a waste of efforts that mankind has made in carbon emission reduction and carbon neutrality. Accordingly, this study suggests that human beings should make more efforts to conduct the exploration and exploitation of the NGHs in the permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, accelerate research on the techniques and equipment for NGHs extraction, storage, and transportation, and exploit the permafrost-associated NGHs while thawing them. The purpose is to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere and mitigate the atmospheric greenhouse effect, thus contributing to the global goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.©2022 China Geology Editorial Office.     

Driving forces of indirect carbon emissions from household consumption in China: an input–output decomposition analysis

Human activities have become a major source of Earth’s climate change, which brings the rise of surface air temperature and subsurface ocean temperature. Therefore, promoting sustainable consumption and production patterns is imperative to minimize the use of natural resources and reduce emissions of pollutants. This study uses Economic Input–Output Life-Cycle Assessment method and structural decomposition model to identify the driving forces that influence the changes in carbon emissions from China’s residential consumption in the context of sustainable consumption. The findings of the study are as follows: (1) indirect carbon emissions from Chinese household consumption increase rapidly over time; (2) the largest carbon dioxide emitting sector turns from agriculture sector in 1992 into service sector in 2007; (3) the consumption level and the emission intensity are the main drivers that influence the change in indirect carbon emissions; and (4) the factor of consumption level presents positive effect on the emissions, while the emission intensity effect plays a negative role. Besides, the factors of urbanization, production structure, population size and consumption structure also promote the rapid increase in carbon emissions.

     

Role of low solar luminosity in the history of the biosphere

It was shown that the history of the biosphere is closely related to processes caused by low solar luminosity. Solar radiation is insufficient to maintain the Earth’s surface temperature above the freezing point of water. Positive temperatures are kept owing to the presence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere: CO₂, CH₄, and others. Certain stages in the development of the biosphere and climate are related to these effects. Methane was the main carbon-bearing gas in the primordial atmosphere. It compensated the low solar luminosity. Life originated under the reduced conditions of the early Earth. Methane-producing biota was formed. Methane remained to be the main greenhouse gas in the Archean. The release of molecular oxygen into the atmosphere 2.4 Ga ago resulted in the disruption of the established mechanism of the compensation of the low solar luminosity. Methane ceased to cause a significant greenhouse effect, and the content of carbon dioxide was insufficient to play this role. A global glaciation began and had lasted for approximately 200 million years. However, the increasing CO₂ content in the atmosphere reached eventually a level sufficient for the compensation for the low solar luminosity. The glaciation period came to an end. Simultaneously, a conflict arose between the role of CO₂ as a gas controlling the thermal regime of the planet and as an initial material for biota production. As long as the resource of biotic carbon was inferior to that of atmospheric CO₂, the uptake of atmospheric CO₂ related to sporadic increases in biologic production was insufficient for a significant change in the thermal regime. This was the reason for a long-term climate stabilization for 1.5 billion years. By 0.8 Ga, the resource of oceanic biota reached the level at which variations in the uptake of atmospheric CO₂ related to variations in the production of organic and carbonate carbon became comparable with the resource of atmospheric CO₂. Since then, an oscillatory equilibrium has been established between the intensity of biota development and climate-controlling CO₂ content in the atmosphere. Glaciation and warming periods have alternated. These changes were triggered by various geologic events: intensification or attenuation of volcanism; growth, breakup, or migration of continents; large-scale magmatism; etc. A new relation between atmospheric CO₂ and biotic carbon was established in response to the emergence of terrestrial biota and the appearance of massive buffers of organic carbon on land. The interrelation of the biosphere and climate changed.     

Greenhouse gases and greenhouse effect

Conventional theory of global warming states that heating of atmosphere occurs as a result of accumulation of CO₂ and CH₄ in atmosphere. The writers show that rising concentration of CO₂ should result in the cooling of climate. The methane accumulation has no essential effect on the Earth’s climate. Even significant releases of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide into the atmosphere do not change average parameters of the Earth’s heat regime and the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Moreover, CO₂ concentration increase in the atmosphere results in rising agricultural productivity and improves the conditions for reforestation. Thus, accumulation of small additional amounts of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere as a result of anthropogenic activities has practically no effect on the Earth’s climate.     

Earth dynamics and climate changes

The evolution of the Earth's climate over geological time is now relatively well known. Conversely, the causes and feedback mechanisms involved in these climatic changes are still not well determined. At geological timescales, two factors play a prevailing role: plate tectonics and the chemical composition of the atmosphere. Their climatic effects will be examined using palaeoclimatic indicators as well as results of climate models. I focus primarily on the influence of continental drift on warm and cold climatic episodes. The consequences of peculiar land sea distributions (amalgamation/dispersal of continental blocks) are discussed. Plate tectonics also drive sea level changes as well as mountain uplift. Marine transgressions during the Mid-Cretaceous favoured warmth within the interiors of continents, although their effect could be very different according to the season. Mountain uplift is also an important factor, which is able to alter climate at large spatial scales. Experiments relative to climatic sensitivity to the elevation of the Appalachians during the Late Permian are discussed. To affect the whole Earth, the chemical composition of the atmosphere appears to be a more efficient forcing factor. The carbon dioxide driven by the long-term carbon cycle has influenced the global climate. Geochemical modelling simulates more or less accurately the long-term evolution of pCO₂, which corresponds roughly to the icehouse/greenhouse climatic oscillations. However, the uncertainties on pCO₂ are still important because different parameters involved in the long-term carbon cycle (degassing rate, chemical weathering of silicates, burial of organic matter) are not well constrained throughout the past. The chemical composition of the atmosphere is also altered by the emissions of modern volcanic eruptions leading to weak global cooling. The influence of large flood basalt provinces on climate is not yet known well enough; this volcanism may have released huge amounts of SO₂ as well as CO₂. At last, the chemical composition of the atmosphere may have been altered by the release of methane in response to the dissociation of gas hydrates. This scenario has been proposed to explain the abrupt warming during the Late Palaeocene.     

深部碳循环的环境气候效应SCIEI北大核心CSCD

地球表层温度主要由接收的太阳辐射能量及大气温室气体的保温能力共同控制。CO_(2)等温室气体通过对大气温度的调节影响着全球环境气候变化,工业革命以来全球CO_(2)排放量的增加被认为是全球变暖的重要原因,地质历史时期大气CO_(2)浓度的波动与温室和冰室气候的交替出现相对应。地球超过90%的碳赋存于深部,因此地球深部过程的些许波动便会影响到地表碳含量,进而深刻影响着地球的环境气候变化。以往的研究注重地表碳循环对环境气候的影响,对深部碳的贡献考虑不足。最近十余年全球开展了详细的深部碳循环研究,基于已经取得的重要成果,本文从大火成岩省、裂谷和俯冲带的视角对深部碳循环驱动的环境气候效应进行了系统回顾。认为未来的研究需要对地球深部碳循环通量和碳同位素组成进行更精确的定量,这是我们认识深部碳循环对地表环境气候影响的基础;除了碳元素本身我们还需要关注其他挥发性元素和有害金属元素的综合效应;俯冲带作为全球壳-幔相互作用和物质交换循环最重要的场所,应该是进行深部碳循环观察和环境气候效应研究的重点。     

Volcanic emissions and the early Earth atmosphere

Despite uncertainties in our understanding of early Earth volcanism and atmospheric composition, thermodynamic modelling is able to offer estimates of the global production of reactive trace species (NO, OH, SO₃, Cl, Br and I) from early Earth volcanism, and thereby to shed light on processes which may have been different in Earth’s early atmosphere. Model results show that thermal decomposition of magmatic H₂O, CO₂ and SO₂ in high-T mixtures of magmatic and atmospheric gases (at T > 1400 °C) generate high levels of reactive trace gas species. Production of these reactive trace species is insensitive to atmospheric CO₂ in mixtures where the atmospheric gas is the minor component and will hence continue during periods of low atmospheric CO₂. Fluxes of NO, OH, Cl, Br and I from early Earth volcanism are predicted to exceed those from modern Earth volcanism as the higher temperature of early Earth emissions compensates for lower levels of O₂ in the atmosphere, compared to the modern Earth. Under certain conditions, the volcanic NO flux from early Earth volcanism is found to be comparable to other sources of reactive N such as lightning NO and photochemical HCN. This is one possible source of fixed nitrogen which may alleviate any postulated Archean nitrogen crisis. Our thermodynamic model reveals that production of SO₃ (a potential precursor for near-source volcanic sulphate and hence ‘primary’ volcanic aerosol) is likely to be significantly lower from early Earth volcanism. Uncertainty in the pathway to near-source sulphate in modern volcanism (i.e., the reaction of SO₃ with water or direct emission) introduces a large uncertainty into the production rate of near-source volcanic sulphate on the early Earth.     

地球科学与碳中和：现状与发展方向

碳中和是当前世界关注的热点,地球科学可以在其中发挥很大的作用。在国际上,政府间气候变化专门委员会、国际能源署、能源转型委员会,以及在国家层面,政策咨询小组已就CO_2减排可能的实现方式提出了一系列模型和预测情景,表明要实现碳中和,电将代替化石燃料成为全球能源的主要载体。在全球迫切需要减排的背景下,地球科学为实现《巴黎协定》气候目标提供地质解决方案至关重要,主要科学问题涉及:储热与地热;干热岩;水电储能;压缩空气储能;核能;碳捕集与储存;氢经济;能源转型需要的矿产原材料。这就需要地球科学:一是对岩石进行地球化学和地质体的岩石力学特征描述,以便在可能开展脱碳的地区储存CO_2和建立绿色能源系统;二是进一步揭示电动汽车电池和风力涡轮机等所需矿产资源的起源和成因;三是从小型实验室尺度扩大到试点、工业化和商业化全尺度规模;四是要了解公众对地下脱碳技术的态度,保证项目安全性。碳中和目标为地球科学研究提供了新的机遇,未来发展需要从多方面提供支持;提高对地球科学在实现脱碳方面关键作用的认识,并发展技术,打造产业链,实现可持续发展。     

Global temperature changes: relative importance of greenhouse constituents of the atmosphere as calculated with a 1-d radiative-convective model

Most modelling endeavours concerning the CO₂-climate problem address only the question of the climatic response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, while the amounts of other atmospheric gases remain fixed. But associated changes, either climatologically or anthropogenically induced, of minor atmospheric constituents can also be of significance in producing a substantial global warming. We have analysed the climatic response to changes in a number of atmospheric trace gases as they may enhance or counteract CO₂-induced warming if their abundance should change. A comparison of the increase in equilibrium global-mean surface temperature due to plausible changes in the concentration of several trace gases in the atmosphere based on our calculations with a one-dimensional radiative-convective model is presented in this paper. Our results indicate that roughly 35% of global surface warming could be due to changes in trace gases other than CO₂ and water vapour. The possible climatic consequences of the ongoing anthropogenic changes in the minor constituents of the atmosphere are also discussed.     

The connection between the growth of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the current climate warming

Variations in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and the average global near-surface air temperature are compared over the last 50-year period. It turns out that, within the interannual time scales, the carbon dioxide concentration variations generally lagged behind the corresponding temperature variations. However, within time scales of more than 40 years in the 1980s–1990s, when the growth of CO₂ and temperature accelerated, carbon dioxide was in the lead. This fact indicates that atmospheric pollution actually could have begun to affect the climate at that time.     

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Climate: Historical-Geological Aspects

Insignificant role of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the total balance of this gas in the atmosphere is shown. Relationship of the atmospheric CO₂ content with climate in geological history of the Earth and history of mankind is ambiguous. It is assumed that the influence of greenhouse effect on global climate was less significant than was thought previously. Its impact is governed by complex relationship of cosmic and terrestrial factors, including the position of continental massifs.__________Translated from Litologiya i Poleznye Iskopaemye, No. 4, 2005, pp. 368–380.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Kuznetsov.     

对地球系统科学的几点认识

地球系统科学将是２１世纪地球科学的主旋律,它被定义为：“将地球作为一个整体来伯全部知识;对地球的气圈、水圈、生物圈和岩石中的各种作用及各层圈间相互作用时间进行的研究”。此种学术思想可追溯到１００多年前,见於文字也有近二十年。它对当代地学的发展起了重要的推动作用,有四个特点：地球现象的远距离相互联系、影响;内动力和外动力研究一体化;地质作用和生物作用研究一体化;一类活动作为地球系统的一部分。当前地球系统科学的发展也提出了一些新问题,主要的是：在学术思路上对与岩石圈有关的地质作用有所忽视;观察研究系统不全面;还未深人到资源形成和小环境的研究中。近年来的观测试验表明,发生在岩石圈的各种地质作用正积极参与垒球各圈层间的物质能量交换。对它们的忽视,可能正是目前一些生物地球化学循环模型无法平衡的原因。     

论大气二氧化碳温室效应的饱和度

利用最新版本的大气分子吸收光谱资料HITRAN2000，用精确的逐线积分算法，计算了大气CO₂浓度变化后产生的辐射强迫。在此基础上，研究了CO₂温室效应的饱和度以及影响CO₂辐射强迫的各种因子。主要结论如下：地面温度愈高，一般辐射强迫也愈大，但辐射强迫并不完全取决于地面温度，它还受大气温度廓线的强烈影响；研究的 6种模式大气中，吸收带重叠对热带大气的CO₂辐射强迫影响最大，对亚极冬季大气的影响最小；与长波辐射强迫相比，短波辐射强迫的贡献很小；CO₂的温室效应在15μm带中心等波段确实已经达到饱和，但在其它（15μm带两翼，10μm，5.2μm带等）波段远未达到饱和，在最近的将来也不会达到饱和。     

全球变化条件下的土壤呼吸效应

土壤呼吸是陆地植物固定CO₂尔后又释放CO₂返回大气的主要途径，是与全球变化有关的一个重要过程。综述了全球变化下CO₂浓度上升、全球增温、耕作方式的改变及氮沉降增加的土壤呼吸效应。大气CO₂浓度的上升将增加土壤中CO₂的释放通量，同时将促进土壤的碳吸存；在全球增温的情形下，土壤可能向大气中释放更多的CO₂，传统的土地利用方式可能是引发温室气体CO₂产生的重要原因，所有这些全球变化对土壤呼吸的作用具有不确定性。认为土壤碳库的碳储量增加并不能减缓21世纪大气CO₂浓度的上升。据此讨论了该问题的对策并提出了今后土壤呼吸的一些研究方向。其中强调，尽管森林土壤碳固定能力有限，但植树造林、森林保护是一项缓解大气CO₂上升的可行性对策；基于现有田间尺度CO₂通量测定在不确定性方面的进展，今后应继续朝大尺度田间和模拟程序方面努力；着重回答全球变化条件下的土壤呼吸过程机理；区分土壤呼吸的不同来源以及弄清土壤呼吸黑箱系统中土壤微生物及土壤动物的功能。当然，土壤呼吸的测定方法尚有待改善。     

青藏高原南部及邻区深部碳释放规模与成因

不同构造背景下的深部碳释放通量与机制研究对于深刻理解长时间尺度的气候变化具有重要意义,以往的相关研究多集中在洋中脊、大洋俯冲带和大陆裂谷等地质单元,缺少对大陆碰撞带深部碳释放规模与机理的关注,从而制约了对大陆碰撞带深部碳循环过程及其气候环境效应的进一步认识。青藏高原起源于印度和欧亚大陆的碰撞,是研究大陆碰撞带深部碳循环的理想地区。为此,在近年来青藏高原温室气体释放野外观测与研究的基础上,本文估算了高原南部及邻区火山-地热区的CO₂释放规模并探讨了其释放模式。气体He-C同位素地球化学与温泉水热活动特征等显示,青藏高原南部及邻区的深部碳释放主要受深部岩浆房、断裂和浅部水热系统等因素的控制。依据深部流体源区和上升运移控制因素的差异,可以将青藏高原南部及邻区的深部碳释放划分为三大类：(1)以壳内水热系统脱碳为主的藏南地区;(2)深大断裂控制的以水热系统脱碳为主的川西地区;(3)深部岩浆房和浅部水热系统共同控制的滇西南地区。青藏高原南部土壤微渗漏CO₂释放通量介于18.7～52.3Mt/yr之间,温泉溶解无机碳释放通量约为0.13Mt/yr;高原邻区...     

二氧化碳生物地球化学循环研究的进展

综述了对二氧化碳生物地球化学循环的研究现状，着重介绍了大气二氧化碳的源和汇的研究资料，并简要介绍了有关碳循环模式。