Variations in Wave Energy and Amplitudes along the Energy Dispersion Paths of Nonstationary Barotropic Rossby Waves

The variations in the wave energy and the amplitude along the energy dispersion paths of the barotropic Rossby waves in zonally symmetric basic flow are studied by solving the wave energy equation,which expresses that the wave energy variability is determined by the divergence of the group velocity and the energy budget from the basic flow.The results suggest that both the wave energy and the amplitude of a leading wave increase significantly in the propagating region that is located south of the jet axis and enclosed by a southern critical line and a northern turning latitude.The leading wave gains the barotropic energy from the basic flow by eddy activities.The amplitude continuously climbs up a peak at the turning latitude due to increasing wave energy and enlarging horizontal scale(shrinking total wavenumber).Both the wave energy and the amplitude eventually decrease when the trailing wave continuously approaches southward to the critical line.The trailing wave decays and its energy is continuously absorbed by the basic flow.Furthermore,both the wave energy and the amplitude oscillate with a limited range in the propagating region that is located near the jet axis and enclosed by two turning latitudes.Both the leading and trailing waves neither develop nor decay significantly.The jet works as a waveguide to allow the waves to propagate a long distance.     

我国北方500hPa春、夏季平均长波年际异常的EOF分析

利用1958—2008年全球逐日2.5°×2.5°NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用经验正交函数分解(EOF)和谐波分析方法对我国北方地区春、夏季平均长波进行了分析。结果表明:(1)我国北方春季平均长波主要表现为亚洲北部从咸海到日本存在一个完整的长波:巴尔喀什湖到我国罗布泊地区以长波脊活动为主,我国东北地区以长波槽活动为主,长波槽、脊的强度均呈增强趋势;夏季平均长波主要表现为乌拉尔山、贝加尔湖及鄂霍次克海地区的长波脊、槽、脊分布,蒙古国到我国北部地区多为长波槽活动,近51年来长波槽存在减弱趋势。(2)春季平均长波的距平变化主要表现为我国西北、华北地区与其上游和下游邻近地区存在反相关关系;夏季平均长波距平变化和春季相比有所东移,即我国北方大部分地区距平变化与其上游和下游地区存在反相关关系。     

外源与孤波的相互作用对阻塞形成的影响

利用准地转涡度方程导出包括外源和摩擦耗散的强迫广义KdV-Burgers方程,分析表明,外源和耗散的存在是孤波质量和能量变化的原因,耗散使孤波质量和能量随时间呈指数减小。数值计算结果指出,移动性孤波和外源的相互作用,使孤波移速减小,振幅增大;在无耗散情况下,失谐参数α较小时,由于孤波迅速离开外源强迫区,因此不利于阻塞的形成;小耗散的存在,迫使相互作用过程中孤波在外源强迫区附近来回振荡传播,大大增加相互作用时间,可能是造成外源区附近局地阻塞的一种重要机制。     

一类非线性波动方程整体解的不存在性

运用乘子方法和“potential well”方法研究了一类四阶非线性波动方程,证明了当问题的初值满足一定条件时,问题一定不存在整体解。     

重力波与对流耦合作用在一次山地突发性暴雨触发中的机理分析

利用欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）开发的新一代ERA5再分析资料、中国自动站与CMORPH降水产品融合的逐小时降水资料以及国家卫星气象中心FY-2G卫星云图资料,对2018年5月21～22日发生在四川盆地西南部的一次山地突发性暴雨过程中的重力波特征进行天气动力学分析。得到以下结果:此次山地突发性暴雨受到了波长约为150 km,周期为5 h的重力波活动的影响,是典型的β中尺度天气系统诱发的暴雨事件。此过程中的重力波主要是在地形和切变不稳定的共同作用下触发的。切变不稳定先于重力波的传播出现在下游降水区域,可表征切变不稳定的理查逊数对重力波传播方向及降水落区有很好指示作用。此次暴雨发生前,重力波中的上升支气流输送低层水汽到高空助力对流发展,而下沉支气流使得低层不稳定能量不断累积。随着东北低空急流的发展,在大气低层（700～800 hPa）东西风切变的过渡带内形成临界层,临界层不断吸收高空波动能量造成重力波能量下传,触发低层不稳定能量释放,促使对流不断加强,最终引发此次山地突发性暴雨。     

风速垂直切变下非均匀层结大气中重力惯性内波的稳定性

本文应用WKB方法研究了在弱非均匀层结大气中,当基本气流具有弱垂直切变时,重力惯性内波的稳定性问题.由导得的波能量方程出发,分析了风速垂直切变及非均匀大气层结对重力惯性内波波能变化率的影响.     

Variations in Amplitudes and Wave Energy along the Energy Dispersion Paths for Rossby Waves in the Quasigeostrophic Barotropic Model

Variations in wave energy and amplitude for Rossby waves are investigated by solving the wave energy equation for the quasigeostrophic barotropic potential vorticity model.The results suggest that compared with rays in the nondivergent barotropic model,rays in the divergent model can have enhanced meridional and zonal propagation,accompanied by a more dramatic variability in both wave energy and amplitude,which is caused by introducing the divergence effect of the free surface in the quasigeostrophic model.For rays propagating in a region enclosed by a turning latitude and a critical latitude,the wave energy approaches the maximum value inside the region,while the amplitude approaches the maximum at the turning latitude.Waves can develop when both the wave energy and amplitude increase.For rays propagating in a region enclosed by two turning latitudes,the wave energy approaches the minimum value at one turning latitude and the maximum value at the other latitude,while the total wavenumber approaches the maximum value inside the region.The resulting amplitude increases if the total wavenumber decreases or the wave energy increases more significantly and decreases if the total wavenumber increases or the wave energy decreases more significantly.The matched roles of the energy from the basic flow and the divergence of the group velocity contribute to the slightly oscillating wave energy,which causes a slightly oscillating amplitude as well as the slightly oscillating total wavenumber.     

上海热浪与健康监测预警系统

用1989～1998年上海逐日4次气象观测资料,应用美国特拉华大学的SSC天气分类方法确定逐日天气类型,形成了10年逐日天气类型日历。并通过天气类型与死亡率的对比分析,确定MT+类型是上海地区形成热浪的“侵人型”气团,是具有最高死亡率的天气类型。采用逐步回归方法建立了MT+类型下因受热浪侵袭而超正常死亡数的回归方程。在此基础上建立了上海热浪与健康监测预警系统。通过1999年气象和死亡实况资料检验,系统对热浪及因此引起的死亡具有较好的监测和预警效果。     

A Three-dimensional Wave Activity Flux of Inertia–Gravity Waves and Its Application to a Rainstorm Event

A three-dimensional transformed Eulerian-mean(3D TEM) equation under a non-hydrostatic and non-geostrophic assumption is deduced in this study. The vertical component of the 3D wave activity flux deduced here is the primary difference from previous studies, which is suitable to mesoscale systems. Using the 3D TEM equation, the energy propagation of the inertia–gravity waves and how the generation and dissipation of the inertia–gravity waves drive the mean flow can be examined. During the mature stage of a heavy precipitation event, the maximum of the Eliassen–Palm(EP) flux divergence is primarily concentrated at the height of 10–14 km, where the energy of the inertia–gravity waves propagates forward(eastward) and upward. Examining the contribution of each term of the 3D TEM equation shows that the EP flux divergence is the primary contributor to the mean flow tendency. The EP flux divergence decelerates the zonal wind above and below the high-level jet at the height of 10 km and 15 km, and accelerates the high-level jet at the height of 12–14 km. This structure enhances the vertical wind shear of the environment and promotes the development of the rainstorm.     

Low-Frequency CISK-Rossby Wave and Stratospheric QBO in the Tropical Atmosphere

1.IntroductionThelow~frequencyoscillation(LFO)isaveryimPOrtantweatherphenomenonintheatmosphere.The30--50--dayandquasichiweeklyoscillationsinthetropicalatmospherearemostintensivelystudied,andcomParativelyspeaking,anotherkindofLFOconcernillgtheQBOofthestratosphericzonalwindsismuchlessstudied,which,althoughoccurringinthestratosphere,bearsacloserelationtothetroposphericactivitiesandtheevolutionoflow--latitudecirculationssothatitisworthwhiletoexploreindepththephysicalmechanismfortheQBOoccurre…     

The Dynamics of ENSO Anomaly as Revealed in Ensemble Climate Simulations-Impact of Mean Stationary Wave

A series of climate ensemble experiments using the climate model from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) were performed to exam impact of sea surface temperature (SST) on dynamics of El-Nino/South-crn Oscillation (ENSO).A specific question addressed in this paper is how important the mean stationary wave influences anomalous Rossby wave trains or teleconnection patterns as often observed during ENSO events.Evidences from those ensemble simulations argue that ENSO anomalies,especially over Pacific-North America (PNA) region,appear to be a result of modification for climatological mean stationary wave forced by persistent tropical SST anomalies Therefore,the role of SST forcing in maintaining climate basic state is emphasized.In this argument,the interaction between atmospheric internal dynamics and external forcing,such as SST is a key element to understand and ultimately predict ENSO.     

Tropical Cyclone Energy Dispersion and Possible Self Maintenance Mechanism of the Synoptic Scale Wave Trains

The interaction between tropical cyclone (TC) and the large-scale mean flows such as the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is investigated using a three-dimensional primitive equation model. Once a TC develops in the vicinity of the ITCZ region where satisfies both barotropic and baroclinic instabilities, the southeastward energy dispersion from the TC may disturb the ITCZ and thus help its breakdown. Cumulus convection can be organized in the region of cyclonic circulation, and the interaction between convective heating and the perturbation circulation may enhance the development of the waves, leading to the generation of a new tropical cyclone to the east. While the TC moves to the high latitude, the ITCZ will reform. Though repeating of this process, a synoptic-scale wave train oriented in the northwest-southeast direction can be generated and self-maintained. The results suggest that the mutual interaction among the low-frequency background flow, wave train pattern and TCs provides a possible mechanism for the origin of the summer synoptic scale wave train pattern over the western North Pacific.     

Wind and Wave Data Analysis for the Aegean Sea - Preliminary Results

In this paper, a statistical analysis on wind and wave buoy measurements and wind and wave model forecasts obtained during a two-year period (1999-2001) is presented with reference to four characteristic near-shore sites of the Aegean Sea. The measurements are a main product of the "POSEIDON" system aiming at the monitoring and forecasting of the state of the Greek seas, operated by the National Centre for Marine Research (NCMR). Although the two-year period is rather short for a thorough analysis of the local wind and wave climate, yet the obtained results, presented herein for the first time, reveal some interesting features of the corresponding wave and wind characteristics. Comparisons between the measurements and the forecast results are also performed at the locations under consideration. It is found that (i) wind speeds obtained from the POSEIDON weather forecasting system are, in general, in agreement with the measurements, except for high wind speeds which are systematically underestimated, (ii) the WAM model can successfully follow the monthly and over year trend of the evolution of wind and wave characteristics, but face significant problems for efficient sea-state forecasting. Finally, the overall pattern of the wind/wave climate for the entire Aegean Sea as obtained from the models is presented by means of the spatial distribution of the mean annual wind and sea-state intensity.     

亚洲西风急流纬向非均匀性变化成因及其对东亚夏季气候的影响

利用美国NOAA（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration）的CMAP（Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation）月平均降水资料、NCEP/DOE（National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Design of Experiments）II的月平均再分析资料和中国气象局国家信息中心提供的中国160站逐月降水和平均气温资料,通过定义一个亚洲急流纬向非均匀性指数（I_Aja）,分析了1979～2019年夏季亚洲西风急流纬向非均匀性的年际变化特征,揭示了夏季亚洲急流纬向非均匀性变化异常的成因及其对东亚夏季降水和气温的影响。结果表明:夏季亚洲西风急流纬向非均匀性具有显著的年际变化特征,并存在6～8年和2年左右的振荡周期。当急流纬向非均匀性典型偏强（弱）年,东亚东部地区从低纬到高纬,降水异常主要呈现出偏多—偏少—偏多（偏少—偏多—偏少）的经向分布;气温则在中国西部地区和日本北部偏高（低）,贝加尔湖地区偏低（高）。引起夏季亚洲急流纬向非均匀性异常的可能原因如下:由大气非绝热加热异常而引起的热带和中纬度地区辐合/辐散运动造成的涡度源强迫,和来自西风带中波扰动能量的注入,两者共同作用形成并维持了与急流纬向非均匀性强弱变化相联系的异常环流,从而使亚洲急流东、西段强度差异增强（减弱）,进而有利于急流纬向非均匀性异常偏强（偏弱）。而上述西风带中波扰动能量的东传可能与北大西洋海表面温度异常有关。这对于深刻理解夏季亚洲急流纬向非均匀性异常的形成机理提供了有用的线索。     

The Relationship Between Abnormal Meiyu and Medium-Term Scale Wave Perturbation Energy Propagation Along the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet

The East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) is one of the most important factors modulating the Meiyu rainfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, China. This article analyzed periods of the medium-term EASWJ variation,wave packet distribution and energy propagation of Rossby waves along the EASWJ during Meiyu season, and investigated their possible influence on abnormal Meiyu rain. The results showed that during the medium-term scale atmospheric dynamic process, the evolution of the EASWJ in Meiyu season was mainly characterized by the changes of3-8 d synoptic-scale and 10-15 d low-frequency Rossby waves. The strong perturbation wave packet and energy propagation of the 3-8 d synoptic-scale and 10-15 d low-frequency Rossby waves are mostly concentrated in the East Asian region of 90°-150°E, where the two wave trains of perturbation wave packets and wave-activity flux divergence coexist in zonal and meridional directions, and converge on the EASWJ. Besides, the wave trains of perturbation wave packet and wave-activity flux divergence in wet Meiyu years are more systematically westward than those in dry Meiyu years, and they are shown in the inverse phases between each other. In wet(dry) Meiyu year, the perturbation wave packet high-value area of the 10-15 d low-frequency variability is located between the Aral Sea and the Lake Balkhash(in the northeastern part of China), while over eastern China the wave-activity flux is convergent and strong(divergent and weak), and the high-level jets are strong and southward(weak and northward). Because of the coupling of high and low level atmosphere and high-level strong(weak) divergence on the south side of the jet over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, the low-level southwest wind and vertically ascending motion are strengthened(weakened), which is(is not)conducive to precipitation increase in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin. These findings would help to better understand the impact mechanisms of the EASWJ activities on abnormal Meiyu from the perspective of medium-term scale Rossby wave energy propagation.     

双三次数值模式与理想Lamb波、龙卷扰动对比模拟分析

通过"双三次曲面拟合—时间步长积分—双三次曲面拟合……",实现成为一种双三次曲面拟合新算法数值模式。它对模式大气作非线性(空间二阶可导)描述,是用数值分析(三次样条/双三次曲面)与计算方法近似求解大气运动非线性偏微分方程组。用Z坐标系高分辨率双三次数值模式,采用原始大气运动方程组和采用欧拉时间积分方案,设置理想扰动,对大气声波Lamb波做数值模拟;采用大气不可压假定,除去声波,对大气重力波龙卷扰动做数值模拟。对比模拟发现:理想Lamb波以声速在水平方向传播,扰动能量频散快,仅能在原地持续数秒钟;理想龙卷扰动则在原地可持续约1 min,且波动内圈(外圈)自下至上始终处于风场辐合(辐散)状态,具冷心结构和气压驻波特征,可因水汽进入扰动与借助凝结潜热释放而得到发展。     

西藏地区强降雪过程的波包分布及传播特征

利用NCEP/NCAR高度场的再分析资料,通过波包传播诊断方法(WPD),对2005年10月19～23日西藏地区中东部及南部边缘地区一次大范围强降雪天气过程进行波包分布与波能传播特征分析。结果表明:500hPa高度场的波包分布和传播特征很好地反映此次过程;强降雪天气发生在波包大值区域内而且反映了过程的爆发和消亡;波包的分布特征与强对流天气的发生状况是一致的;波包的移动路径很好地反映了扰动能量的传播。此次过程是"积累-释放"的三次循环。     

超长波的多年振动

我们对1871—1975年冬（1月）和夏（7月）60°N和30°N纬圈的海平面气压距平资料作谐波分析，讨论第1—3波的超长波的多年振动。其主要结果有:1. 超长波的第1波的近百年变化表现为向西的行波型振动。它的超长波槽有3次影响东亚，造成东亚地区降水量的36年左右周期。2. 第2、3波的变化是属于驻波型的振动，这种振动是由两个气候变化阶段来完成的。1921—1926年以前为第一阶段，超长波槽的位置偏东；1921—1926年以后为第二阶段，超长波槽偏西。超长波的阶段变化导致了大气活动中心的阶段变化，引起相关系数的不稳定。3. 超长波的阶段变化与海温距平的阶段变化有密切关系。超长波槽的变化与海温负距平的变化相适应。     

An ocean wind-wave climatology for the Southern Brazilian Shelf. Part II: Variability in space and time

Previously validated model results were used to characterize the wave climate over the Southern Brazilian Shelf (SBS). The low mean significant wave height over the western South Atlantic shelves was shown together with examples of cyclone-induced extreme wave fields and other typical wave conditions. The mean offshore spectra showed a bimodal shape with a predominance of S/SSW and ENE/E waves with distinctive interannual rising periods in wave energy density. Along-shelf wave energy gradients were seen near the coast with higher energy located off capes and coastal projections and energy minima between them. A considerable drop in wave energy suggests the 40 m depth as the mean wave base and consequently the lower limit of the SBS shoreface. The upper shoreface mean wave energy density varied abruptly along the shelf in response to differences in bottom declivities. The large and shallow shoreface was responsible for an intense refraction of the waves and hence very small angles of attack. Additionally, it was shown the sheltering effect caused by capes and coastal projections and a remarkable north/south energy asymmetry between them, caused by a windowing on the wave propagation to the shore. Altogether, it was possible to state that bottom friction plays a major role in wave differentiation along the SBS shoreface, thus suggesting that shelf morphology might indeed be more important to generate wave variability than the offshore wave variation itself.     

2020年长江中下游地区梅汛期强降水特征及其与对流层上层斜压Rossby波的关系

2020年梅汛期（6～7月）长江中下游地区发生了严峻的汛情。2020年梅雨期长度和强度均远超历史平均水平。本文利用逐日NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和全球降水量网格数据集,研究了本次梅汛期降水特征及其与对流层上层斜压波动活动的联系。结果表明:本次梅汛期,长江中下游地区的总降水量和降水异常大值区位于安徽南部,共有7次连续的降水过程发生。长江中下游地区在对流层中低层辐合、高层辐散,且该地区上空有强的异常上升运动,有利于异常强降水的发生发展。同时,水汽自孟加拉湾和中国南海地区输送至长江中下游地区,为强降水的发生提供了充足水汽。利用小波分析研究该地区的逐日降水标准化时间序列时,发现其存在2～4天和6～14天的显著周期。高频（2～14天）扰动所显示的Rossby波动在对流层上层表现出向下游频散的特征,波动源于贝加尔湖附近。波扰动能量和通量所显示的波动向下游的传播过程与波包的传播过程较为一致,分别源于地中海和贝加尔湖附近的波扰能向东或向东南频散至长江中下游地区,有利于该地区扰动加强并进而有利于强降水的发生和维持。以上结果加深了人们对2020年超长“暴力梅”成因的认识并可为有效预测类似事件提供线索。