威马逊台风的实测风暴海流计算及分析

采用潮流调和分析和分离等方法,分析了海流连续观测站上受威马逊台风影响的ADCP海流资料,进行了实测风暴海流的计算。结果显示,风暴海流达到了与天文潮流同等的数量级,并与风暴潮存在一定的关系,如近岸01站风暴潮增水大时,风暴海流量值较大,离岸较远的02站则是在风暴潮变化大时,风暴海流较大。     

海滩风暴效应若干问题思考与我国研究前景

热带风暴是一种频发的灾害性事件,其诱发的大浪及其伴生的风暴潮会在短时间内搬运大量沉积物,对海岸地貌、海底地形和海洋沉积的影响极为严重.总结了未来风暴变化趋势和风暴动力方面的研究进展,概述了近几十年来海滩风暴效应领域几个重要方向的进展,内容包括岸滩风暴灾害调查和研究、海滩风暴效应差异性研究、风暴作用下的泥沙运动和岸滩风暴响应沉积学特征等方面.从国内外的研究现状来看,我国在风暴作用下泥沙运动实测与定量分析、多因素耦合控制下海滩风暴效应差异和海滩风暴地貌过程等方面存在着明显的不足.作为我国海岸科学研究中必需又薄弱的环节,今后该领域的研究应该在强化野外现场实验和监测的基础上,深入探讨极端条件下的海滩过程,发展海滩风暴响应预测模型,并积极开展海滩风暴潮防护技术开发与应用.     

广东省徐闻沿海风暴潮数值模拟与淹没危险性分析

基于ADCIRC模型建立了徐闻高分辨率的风暴潮模型,并以1415号台风"海鸥"路径为基础,通过路径平移构建了一系列台风路径,模拟计算了徐闻沿海风暴增水.结果 表明:徐闻东部沿岸的风暴增水最大,主要原因在于东部沿岸的独特地形特征以及该区域受到的有利台风路径影响.在上述工作的基础上,耦合海浪和天文潮的作用,计算10个不同等...     

太湖台风风暴流准三维数值模拟的应用

本文应用丁氏圆形台风模式，建立了太湖台风风暴流场的准三维数值模式，模型考虑了垂向涡粘系数沿水深变化和动量方程的修正，在对9711号（Winnie)台风影响下太湖各站水位验证的基础上，对太湖台风风暴流场进行了模拟计算。结果表明，该模式可对湖泊的台风风暴流进行复演和预测计算。从预测研究的角度看，基于台风模式的湖泊台风风暴流计算模式更有价值。     

条件变化对海口湾风暴增水的影响分析——以海鸥台风为例

以海口湾为例,通过建立天文潮与风暴潮耦合数值模型,以典型强台风海鸥为基础,对未来台风增强、海平面上升和填海工程对海口湾风暴潮的影响分别进行了诊断分析,并计算了三者的共同作用在未来100年对风暴增水最大值的变化幅度。结果表明:1)台风强度增强大幅度增加海口湾沿岸风暴增水最大值,台风强度增强10%时,海口湾沿岸控制点风暴增水最大值增加12%~18%;2)海口湾地区在海平面上升的影响下风暴增水最大值反而减小,仅有部分岸段风暴增水值最大增加,不同海域风暴增水变化对海平面上升的响应不同;3)不合理的人工岛建设方案会显著增加对岸风暴最大增水值;4)在台风增强、海平面上升和不合理的海湾填海共同影响下,未来100年风暴增水最大值将增加12%~28%。显然这样的风暴增水变化会引起严重的灾害和后果,本研究可为海口湾防灾减灾工作提供依据。     

海洋工程中台风暴潮及风暴海流的计算分析大电流密度下阴极产物膜的探讨

台风暴潮及风暴海流是危害海洋工程的主要灾害现象之一。本文以马迹山２５万吨级矿石中转码头工程为例，对台风暴潮及风暴海流进行了统计分析，数值计算，得出了码头区风暴潮和风暴海流的定量结果。同时通过假想台风的设计，计算了码头区域的最大可能风暴增水和风暴海流，可为大型码头工程的设计提供参数。     

钱塘江河口围涂对杭州湾风暴潮影响数值模拟

应用二维水动力模式Mike21对钱塘江河口治江围涂对杭州湾风暴潮的影响进行了数值模拟。首先采用概化地形做了围涂对风暴潮影响的主要因素分析,然后采用实际地形计算极端工况和百年一遇工况条件下已有围涂前后风暴潮的变化,最后对今后规划围涂所造成的影响进行了预测。结果表明,围涂引起的平面边界改变是影响杭州湾风暴潮的主要因素,围涂引起的地形抬升的影响是次要因素;已有围涂使杭州湾极端风暴高潮位抬升1.85~0.09 m,抬升幅度由湾顶向湾口递减;规划围涂后,杭州湾风暴高潮位总体抬升,抬升值最大的湾中部为0.25 m。     

风暴潮沿珠江河道上溯运动的数值模拟

采用动力学数值模式对风暴潮沿珠江河道上溯的个例进行了模拟,并就有关机制进行讨论.结果显示,风暴潮位是否沿珠江河道向北逐渐递增,和风暴强度有很大的关系,也和风暴登陆的路径有关;南海的热带气旋多数是西行的,这样就使本文研究的对象像是“过路”的风暴,伶仃洋的聚水面积不算大,加上蛛网般河网的分散作用,都使珠江一线的风暴增水很少超过2.5m.但即使这样规模的增水,也对河口平坦地区造成很大威胁.由于天文潮的耦合,以及浅水效应,风暴潮常有不同程度的变形.本文的模拟中,模式、参数和计算对象等早已选好,计算时只作了少许调整,就能得到较好的结果,说明模式是合理和可靠的.     

渤海沿岸风暴沉积体的研究

渤海沿岸是风暴潮常发地区之一.温带气旋和热带风暴作用形成该区的风暴沉积体.研究风暴沉积体的特征及其分布规律,探讨全新世以来风暴作用对沿岸地质环境演化影响及沉积模式.进行野外地质调查和历史资料研究,综合研究渤海沿岸风暴潮动力环境.渤海沿岸的风暴沉积体表现为滨岸沙堤、贝壳堤、风暴沉积砂层等地质体.保护风暴沉积体,合理开发利用,提出减轻灾害的措施和对策,有利于当地经济的可持续发展.     

浙江沿海超强台风作用下的风暴潮流

应用河口海岸水动力模型,利用浙江沿海包括 2 场超强台风在内的 5 场台风作用下发生的风暴潮位过程验证了该数值模式的适用性.将 1949 年以来登陆我国大陆沿海最强的"5612"号台风作为典型的超强台风,计算了超强台风在浙北至浙南 3 个不同地点登陆时产生的风暴潮流,结果显示风暴潮流一般小于天文潮潮流与基于海平面风暴海流的线性叠加值,风暴潮流场更多地呈现风暴海流的流场特点,在开敞海岸基本顺岸流动,这对于分析航道骤淤和海岸带物质输移具有重要意义.     

异地海域年极值风暴增水同现规律的探讨

以塘沽和龙口海洋观测站20年极值增水值为样本，基于二维冈贝尔逻辑分布模式，探讨了不同海域风暴潮增水极值的联合分布规律。通过对二维分布的联合概率密度、条件概率密度和同现概率的计算，给出了相应的工程设计参数，供有关部门在防潮规划时参考。     

北部湾乌雷站台风浪、风暴增水数值结果的联合概率分析

对1949?2002年北部湾乌雷站台风浪和风暴增水的数值模拟结果进行分析,得出54a的台风浪和风暴增水的极值序列,作出二者联合概率分布图,其分布近似于指数分布,进而运用GUMBELⅡ联合概率分布函数对其拟合,在找出联合概率分布函数过程中分析得出了台风浪和风暴增水不同重现期的单要素极值和联合分布要素极值及相应概率(具体给出),其结果对海洋工程设计有一定的参考价值。     

连云港温带风暴潮及可能最大温带风暴潮的计算

用46a资料首次对连云港温带风暴潮进行了统计分析,计算了不同重现期的温带风暴潮(增、减水)值,并划分引起温带风暴潮的天气类型;进而首次构造引起连云港可能最大温带风暴潮(增、减水)的天气系统;最后,采用经过典型温带风暴潮过程数值模拟检验的风暴潮数学模型,计算了连云港可能最大温带风暴潮,计算结果已被江苏田湾(连云港)核电站厂址设计部门采用.     

Long-term variation of storm surge-associated waves in the Bohai Sea

When investigating the long-term variation of wave characteristics as associated with storm surges in the Bohai Sea,the Simulating Waves Nearshore(SWAN)model and Advanced CIRCulation(ADCIRC)model were coupled to simulate 32 storm surges between 1985 and 2014.This simulation was validated by reproducing three actual wave processes,showing that the simulated significant wave height(SWH)and mean wave period agreed well with the actual measurements.In addition,the long-term variations in SWH,pattems in SWH extremes along the Bohai Sea coast,the 100-year retum period SWH extreme distribution,and waves conditional probability distribution were calculated and analyzed.We find that the trend of SWH extremes in most of the coastal stations was negative,among which the largest trend was-0.03 m/a in the western part of Liaodong Bay.From the 100-year return period of the SWH distribution calculated in the Gumbel method,we find that the SWH extremes associated with storm surges decreased gradually from the center of the Bohai Sea to the coast.In addition,the joint probability of wave and surge for the entire Bohai Sea in 100-year return period was determined by the Gumbel logistic method.We therefore,assuming a minimum surge of one meter across the entire Bohai Sea,obtained the spatial SWH distribution.The conclusions of this study are significant for offshore and coastal engineering design.     

风暴增水随机分析的过阈法及其统计计算模式

以青岛大港观测站 32年增水过程为例 ,探讨风暴增水工程设计参数的频率分析法 ,进行了不同阈值序列及各种理论线型的分布拟合。首次提出 Poisson- Pearson- III型分布模式 ,并将其用于工程计算 :对比分析 POT法与年极值法的计算结果 ;给出青岛大港站风暴增水多年一遇设计值 ,为进一步科学地确定海岸防潮工程设计水位奠定了基础。     

渤海波浪和潮汐风暴潮相互作用对波浪影响的数值研究

基于依赖波浪成长状态波令的表面风应力，提出了一个波浪和风暴潮潮汐运动相互作用的联合数值模式，实现了第三代波浪模式和三维风暴潮潮汐模式联合作用的数值研究，并结合渤海典型天气个例的研究，给出了渤海波浪和风暴潮潮汐相互作用对波浪影响的机制和大小量级的定量估计。研究表明，对不同天气过程，波浪和风暴潮潮汐相互作用对波浪影响的性质和大小不同；对强寒潮过程，对波浪影响主要由风暴潮所支配波高调制可达1m，在黄河口区一般达0．5m；对弱天气过程，对波浪影响主要由潮所控制，波高调制约在0．2m，联合作用模式给出的结果与实测更吻合。     

Application of Importance Sampling Method in Sliding Failure Simulation of Caisson Breakwaters

It is assumed that the storm wave takes place once a year during the design period, and N histories of storm waves are generated on the basis of wave spectrum corresponding to the N-year design period. The responses of the breakwater to the N histories of storm waves in the N-year design period are calculated by mass-spring-dashpot mode and taken as a set of samples. The failure probability of caisson breakwaters during the design period of N years is obtained by the statistical analysis of many sets of samples. It is the key issue to improve the efficiency of the common Monte Carlo simulation method in the failure probability estimation of caisson breakwaters in the complete life cycle. In this paper, the kernel method of importance sampling, which can greatly increase the efficiency of failure probability calculation of caisson breakwaters, is proposed to estimate the failure probability of caisson breakwaters in the complete life cycle. The effectiveness of the kernel method is investigated by an example. It is indicated that the calculation efficiency of the kernel method is over 10 times the common Monte Carlo simulation method.     

Dynamic Stability Analysis of Caisson Breakwater in Lifetime Considering the Annual Frequency of Severe Storm

In the dynamic stability analysis of a caisson breakwater, most of current studies pay attention to the motion characteristics of caisson breakwaters under a single periodical breaking wave excitation. And in the lifetime stability analysis of caisson breakwater, it is assumed that the caisson breakwater suffers storm wave excitation once annually in the design lifetime. However, the number of annual severe storm occurrence is a random variable. In this paper, a series of random waves are generated by the Wen Sheng-chang wave spectrum, and the histories of successive and long-term random wave forces are built up by using the improved Goda wave force model. It is assumed that the number of annual severe storm occurrence is in the Poisson distribution over the 50-year design lifetime, and the history of random wave excitation is generated for each storm by the wave spectrum. The response histories of the caisson breakwater to the random waves over 50-year design lifetime are calculated and taken as a set of samples. On the basis of the Monte Carlo simulation technique, a large number of samples can be obtained, and the probability assessment of the safety of the breakwater during the complete design lifetime is obtained by statistical analysis of a large number of samples. Finally, the procedure of probability assessment of the breakwater safety is illustrated by an example.     

Dynamic Stability Analysis of Caisson Breakwater in Lifetime Considering the Annual Frequency of Severe Storm

In the dynamic stability analysis of a caisson breakwater, most of current studies pay attention to the motion characteristics of caisson breakwaters under a single periodical breaking wave excitation. And in the lifetime stability analysis of caisson breakwater, it is assumed that the caisson breakwater suffers storm wave excitation once annually in the design lifetime. However, the number of annual severe storm occurrence is a random variable. In this paper, a series of random waves are generated by the Wen Sheng-chang wave spectrum, and the histories of successive and long-term random wave forces are built up by using the improved Goda wave force model. It is assumed that the number of annual severe storm occurrence is in the Poisson distribution over the 50-year design lifetime, and the history of random wave excitation is generated for each storm by the wave spectrum. The response histories of the caisson breakwater to the random waves over 50-year design lifetime are calculated and taken as a set of samples. On the basis of the Monte Carlo simulation technique, a large number of samples can be obtained, and the probability assessment of the safety of the breakwater during the complete design lifetime is obtained by statistical analysis of a large number of samples. Finally, the procedure of probability assessment of the breakwater safety is illustrated by an example.     

浙江沿海超强台风作用下风暴潮增水数值分析

基于河口海岸水动力二维数值模型,建立风暴潮与天文潮耦合作用的数值模式,通过三次强台风和二次超强台风引起的风暴潮增水模拟和分析,证实该模式可用于浙江沿海增水预测.以1949年以来登陆我国大陆沿海最强的"5612"号台风作为典型的超强台风,利用本模式计算分析了超强台风在浙北至浙南5个不同地点登陆遭遇大潮时可能出现的风暴潮增水过程和最大增水,该结果对于海岸工程的防护具有实际的意义.