A priliminary study on the sequence characteristics and focal mechanism solution of the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm

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2018年9月4日新疆伽师MS5.5地震序列及发震构造讨论

2018年9月4日新疆伽师发生M_S5.5地震,震中处于塔里木地块西北缘,位于1997~1998年伽师强震群震区内。此次伽师地震前发生了M_S4.7前震,截至9月30日最大余震震级为M_S4.6（M_L5.0）,初步判定为前-主-余型地震序列。序列精定位结果显示,余震沿近NE向展布,主震震源深度与1997~1998年伽师强震主震基本一致,发震断层陡立。本文从区域的构造环境、地震震源机制解和余震分布特征等方面分析认为,地震发生在伽师隐伏断裂东南端部,为1997~1998年伽师强震群震区的一次新的构造活动。序列参数、视应力等计算结果显示,伽师M_S5.5地震的预测最大余震震级与最大余震震级M_S4.6接近,表明序列最大余震已经发生。     

Stress interactions between normal faults and adjacent strike-slip faults of 1997 Jiashi earthquake swarm

During a 4-month period starting from 21 January, 1997, an earthquake swarm of seven major events (Ms≥6.0) struck the Jiashi region at the northwestern corner of the Tarim Basin in Xinjiang,, China. Previous relocation studies suggested that these strong earthquakes had occurred along at least two parallel rupture zones. According to the relocated hypocenters and focal mechanisms of the events, we have constructed fault models for these seven earthquakes to calculate the Coulomb stress changes produced by each of these events. Furthermore, we extended our model calculations to include an ad- jacent 1996 Ms=6.9 Artushi earthquake, which occurred one year before the Jiashi earthquake swarm. Our calculations show that the Coulomb stress change caused by the preceding events was around 0.05 MPa at the hypocenter of the 4th event, and higher than 0.08 MPa at the hypocenters of the 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th events. Our results reveal a Coulomb stress interactive cycle of earthquake triggering between two adjacent normal and strike-slip faults.     

2016年安徽无为MS3.0震群序列发震构造与震后趋势研究

首先通过模板匹配方法检测无为震群活动期间目录遗漏的地震事件,共识别出5次遗漏地震事件,震级为M_L0.5～1.2,得到了更为完整的地震目录;然后基于波形互相关震相检测技术标定震相到时,进而采用双差定位方法进行精定位,精定位后震群分布更加集中,未见明显的优势方位分布;采用Snoke方法计算震级较大地震的震源机制,结果表明,此次震群为NEE向的水平挤压与NNE向的水平拉张应力场作用下具逆冲分量的走滑型地震活动,严家桥-枫沙湖断裂可能为其发震构造;最后,计算了震群序列的视应力,结果显示,视应力和扣除震级影响后的差视应力随着震群序列的衰减逐渐恢复,因此,分析认为,随着无为震群序列的衰减,震源区发生更大地震的可能性不大。     

Analysis on the master event method and precise location of 1997 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm in western China

IntroductionEarthquakelocationisoneoftheoldestinverseproblemsinseismology.Preciseearthquakelocationisthebasisoftheseismicresearch.Theprecisionoftheearthquakelocationdependsonmanyfactors,suchasthequalityofthestationnetwork,theprecisionoftheseismicwavearrivaltimemeasured,andtheknowledgeaboutthecrustalvelocitystructureandsoon.AccordingtotheresearchmadebyZhao(1983),thehorizontallocationerroroftheeanhquakelocatedbythetraditionalabsolutemethodinthecentralareaofNorthChinaisabouttZkin,intheedgeregio…     

On the relation of moderate-short term anomaly of earth resistivity to earthquake

IntroductionMany anomalies due to earthquake have been recorded in observation of earth-resistivity for30 years and over, which showed that there objectively existed the anomalies of each-resistivity.The crustal strUcture and medium conditions are quite complex, so the complexity of the temporal,spatial and intensive development of the anomalies is inevitable. Both of time and amplitUde ofanomalies among some stations near an epicenter are different (even among different observational directi…     

Earthquake probabilities and magnitude distribution ( M ≥6.7) along the Haiyuan fault, northwestern China

In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake rupture patterns along the Haiyuan fault. Based on this paleoseismological information, the recurrence probability and magnitude distribution for M≥6.7 earthquakes in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault can be obtained through weighted computation by using Poisson and Brownian passage time models and considering different rupture patterns. The result shows that the recurrence probability of M _S≥6.7 earthquakes is about 0.035 in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault. Foundation item: Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (103034) and Major Research “Research on Assessment of Seismic Safety” from China Earthquake Administration during the tenth Five-year Plan.     

山东长岛地区地震波非弹性衰减Q值、场地响应及震源参数研究

利用山东台网记录的长岛震群2017年2月14日—9月1日期间的波形与震相资料研究长岛地区非弹性衰减系数,得到该地区介质平均Q值与频率f的关系式为Q(f)=363.9f1.374 1。采用Moya等[1]提出的利用遗传算法联合反演得到长岛周边台站的场地响应,根据Brune模型震源参数计算公式求解长岛震群序列地震震源参数。结果显示,各个震源参数之间均存在一定的相关关系,地震矩随ML震级的增大而增加,地震矩与破裂半径R之间存在半对数关系,拐角频率fc随地震矩的增大而减少;长岛地震序列的应力降数值普遍偏小,最大不超过0.9MPa,这意味着长岛震源区整体构造应力较低,也可能指示长岛震群为低摩擦应力的断层作用;震源参数随时间的变化方面,整体而言,长岛震群地震应力降变化起伏很大,在M4.1地震发生前,拐角频率与应力降均发生快速下降后随即翻转上升的现象,证明在M4.1地震发生前震源区整体应力的挤压逐渐增强。     

Source parameters of the earthquakes of the Baikal rift system

The dynamic parameters of the earthquake source—the seismic moment, the moment magnitude, the source radius, the stress drop, and the amplitude of displacement—are determined by the amplitude Fourier spectra of the body shear waves (S-waves) for 62 earthquakes of the Baikal rift system with the energy class of K _P = 9.1–15.7. In the calculations I used the classical Brune model. The seismic moment of the earthquakes being investigated changes from 3.65 × 10¹¹ N m to 1.35 × 10¹⁸ N m, and the radii of earthquake sources vary from 390 m to 1.84 km. The values of the drop in stress Δσ grow with an increase in the seismic moment up to 1.7 × 10⁸ Pa. For the group of weak earthquakes (M _w = 1.7–3.3), extremely low values of the drop in stress 10³–10⁴ Pa are observed. The maximum amplitude of displacement in the source amounts to 5.95 m. The empirical equations between the seismic moment and the other dynamic parameters of the source are determined. The regional dependence of the seismic moment and energy class is obtained: log M ₀ ± 0.60 = 1.03K _P + 3.17. The character of the relationship between the seismic moment and the corner frequency indicates that the classical scaling law of the seismic spectrum for the earthquakes in question is not fulfilled. The obtained estimates of the dynamic parameters are in satisfactory agreement with the published data concerning the analogous parameters of the other rift zones, which reflects the general regular patterns of the destruction of the lithosphere and the seismicity in the extension zones of the lithosphere.     

A study on the focal parameters of Shidian M =5.9 earthquake sequences in 2001

On the basis of about 300 earthquake wave forms observed in the Shidian M _S=5.9 sequences on April 12, 2001 recorded in Kunming Digital Seismic Network, the spectra of shear wave have been used to estimate the focal parameters of these earthquake sequences. The results show that within the magnitude range of 1.5–5.3, the seismic moments are 10¹⁰–10¹⁶ N·m, the corner frequencies are 0.2–0.8 Hz, radii of the focal rupture are 200–2 500 m and the stress drops are 0.1×10⁵–20×10⁵Pa. Through the statistical analyses of variation of corner frequency f _c and stress drop Δσ with time, it is discovered that the average corner frequency of the foreshock sequences is obviously lower than that of the aftershock sequences. Contrarily, the average stress drops Δσ of the foreshock sequences are clearly higher than that of the aftershocks. It is considered that these variation characteristics of average corner frequency and stress drops before and after the main shock have index significance to the precursory information before a strong earthquake. The higher stress drops for the foreshock sequences show that the higher shear stresses have been stored in the area of main shock. After the main shock, most of the stresses have been released, so the aftershock sequences show a rupture process of lower stresses. Foundation item: Scientific and Technological Key Project of Yunnan Province (2001NG46)     

Analysis on the Characteristics of the Kalpin MS5.3 Earthquake Sequence of December 1, 2013 and Anomalies before the Earthquake

This paper introduces the basic parameters, focal mechanism solutions and earthquake sequence characteristics of the Kalpin M_S5.3 earthquake sequence of December 1, 2013, and analyzed seismic activity before the earthquake, the adjacent tectonic features and the precursory anomaly at fixed points within a range of 200km. Research indicates:(1) The earthquake occurred on Kalpin fault, the source rupture type is thrust faulting with sinistral strike-slip component. (2) The earthquake sequence is mainshock-aftershock type, with the aftershock distribution attenuating quickly and trending NE. (3) Abnormal seismic activity before the earthquake was characterized by seismically nesting quiescence of M_S2.0-4.0 earthquakes, seismic quiescence of M_S4.0 earthquakes and seismic belts of M_S3.0 earthquakes in the Kalpin block, abnormal enhancement zone of moderate earthquakes on Puchang fault and seismological parameters. (4) Anomalies of precursory observation data at fixed stations are mainly characterized by mutation. Apart from the borehole tiltmeter in Halajun, the spatial distribution of other abnormal precursors showed a phenomenon of migration from the near field to far field and from the epicenter to the peripheries.     

Seismicity anomalies before the great earth—quake of Ms=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

A great earthquake of M _S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M _S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.     

四川长宁地区地震震源参数的时空分布特征

使用谱比法计算得到四川长宁地区2018年12月至2019年7月期间442个地震的震源参数,并进一步分析了震源参数之间的相互关系及应力降的时空分布特征。研究区的地震活动主要集中在长宁背斜核部和南部建武向斜页岩气开采区。研究结果显示,该地区M_L1.3~4.7地震的应力降位于0.02~7.26MPa范围内,超过90%的地震应力降小于2MPa,应力降总体呈现随震级增大而增大的趋势,但与震源深度的关系并不明显。长宁M_S6.0地震发生之前,震源区地震的应力降总体处于较低水平,主震发生之后,短期内余震的应力降较高,随后快速衰减。这些高应力降地震空间上主要集中在长宁余震区的西北段,也是余震强度较大、发生了几次M_S>5.0强余震的位置。建武向斜页岩气开采区地震的应力降总体略低于长宁背斜地区,但差异并不显著。     

Study on the sources of some deep focus earthquakes in Northwest Pacific region

The sources for thirteen deep focus earthquakes ofm _b≥5.5 andh>400 km in Northwest Pacific region were studied using waveform fitting and shear fracture source model. The source parameters were obtained as follows: focal depth, faulting plane, slip direction, rupture velocity, rupture length, rupture direction and scalar moment tensor. It was found that all these earthquake sources can be interpreted as shear faulting and have simple source time functions. The strike direction of faulting plane for most deep focus earthquakes coincides with that of the subduction zone, especially in the deep part of the subduction zone, it results in the tendency of reducing the dip angle of the subduction zone. The multiple point source model was also used to study the source process. The waveform fitting is better than the shear fracture model, but the general rupture direction which coincides with that from unilateral shear source model can not be obtained from the multiple point source model. This study is supported by the National Science Foundation of China and the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

Investigation of rupture process of the 1999 M =5.4 Xiuyan, Liaoning, earthquake sequence

Conclusions The sequence of the November 29, 1999 Xiuyan, Liaoning, earthquake withM _S=5.4 is relocated, and its rupture process is analyzed. Results are as follows: The rupture extended mainly before the January 12, 2000,M _S=5.1 earthquake. There are two phases of rupture extending: The first phase was before the November 29, 1999,M _S=5.4 earthquake, epicenters were situated within a small region with a dimension of about 5 km, and the focal depth increased. It shows that the rupture mainly extended from shallow part to deep in the vertical direction. The second phase was between theM _S=5.4 earthquake and theM _S=5.1 earthquake, earthquakes migrated along southeast, the focal depth decreased. It indicates that the rupture extended along southeast and from deep to shallow part. Foundation item: The Project of “Mechanism and Prediction of the Strong Continental Earthquake” (95-13-05-04). Contribution No. 01FE2017, Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau.     

Probabilistic assessment of earthquake recurrence in the January 26, 2001 earthquake region of Gujrat, India

Kutch region of Gujrat is one of the most seismic prone regions of India. Recently, it has been rocked by a large earthquake (M _w = 7.7) on January 26, 2001. The probabilities of occurrence of large earthquake (M≥6.0 and M≥5.0) in a specified interval of time for different elapsed times have been estimated on the basis of observed time-intervals between the large earthquakes (M≥6.0 and M≥5.0) using three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal. The earthquakes of magnitude ≥5.0 covering about 180 years have been used for this analysis. However, the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been applied for computation of earthquake hazard parameters. The mean interval of occurrence of earthquakes and standard deviation are estimated as 20.18 and 8.40 years for M≥5.0 and 36.32 and 12.49 years, for M≥6.0, respectively, for this region. For the earthquakes M≥5.0, the estimated cumulative probability reaches 0.8 after about 27 years for Lognormal and Gamma models and about 28 years for Weibull model while it reaches 0.9 after about 32 years for all the models. However, for the earthquakes M≥6.0, the estimated cumulative probability reaches 0.8 after about 47 years for all the models while it reaches 0.9 after about 53, 54 and 55 years for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal model, respectively. The conditional probability also reaches about 0.8 to 0.9 for the time period of 28 to 40 years and 50 to 60 years for M≥5.0 and M≥6.0, respectively, for all the models. The probability of occurrence of an earthquake is very high between 28 to 42 years for the magnitudes ≥5.0 and between 47 to 55 years for the magnitudes ≥6.0, respectively, past from the last earthquake (2001).     

Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Recurrence in Northeast India and Adjoining Regions

Northeast India and adjoining regions (20°–32° N and 87°–100° E) are highly vulnerable to earthquake hazard in the Indian sub-continent, which fall under seismic zones V, IV and III in the seismic zoning map of India with magnitudes M exceeding 8, 7 and 6, respectively. It has experienced two devastating earthquakes, namely, the Shillong Plateau earthquake of June 12, 1897 (M _w 8.1) and the Assam earthquake of August 15, 1950 (M _w 8.5) that caused huge loss of lives and property in the Indian sub-continent. In the present study, the probabilities of the occurrences of earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 7.0 during a specified interval of time has been estimated on the basis of three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal, with the help of the earthquake catalogue spanning the period 1846 to 1995. The method of maximum likelihood has been used to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters. The logarithmic probability of likelihood function (ln L) is estimated and used to compare the suitability of models and it was found that the Gamma model fits best with the actual data. The sample mean interval of occurrence of such earthquakes is estimated as 7.82 years in the northeast India region and the expected mean values for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal distributions are estimated as 7.837, 7.820 and 8.269 years, respectively. The estimated cumulative probability for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 reaches 0.8 after about 15–16 (2010–2011) years and 0.9 after about 18–20 (2013–2015) years from the occurrence of the last earthquake (1995) in the region. The estimated conditional probability also reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 13–17 (2008–2012) years in the considered region for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is zero years. However, the conditional probability reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 9–13 (2018–2022) years for earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is 14 years (i.e. 2009).     

Monitoring the West Bohemian earthquake swarm in 2008/2009 by a temporary small-aperture seismic array

The most recent intense earthquake swarm in West Bohemia lasted from 6 October 2008 to January 2009. Starting 12 days after the onset, the University of Potsdam monitored the swarm by a temporary small-aperture seismic array at 10 km epicentral distance. The purpose of the installation was a complete monitoring of the swarm including micro-earthquakes (M _L < 0). We identify earthquakes using a conventional short-term average/long-term average trigger combined with sliding-window frequency-wavenumber and polarisation analyses. The resulting earthquake catalogue consists of 14,530 earthquakes between 19 October 2008 and 18 March 2009 with magnitudes in the range of − 1.2 ≤ M _L ≤ 2.7. The small-aperture seismic array substantially lowers the detection threshold to about M _c = − 0.4, when compared to the regional networks operating in West Bohemia (M _c > 0.0). In the course of this work, the main temporal features (frequency–magnitude distribution, propagation of back azimuth and horizontal slowness, occurrence rate of aftershock sequences and interevent-time distribution) of the recent 2008/2009 earthquake swarm are presented and discussed. Temporal changes of the coefficient of variation (based on interevent times) suggest that the swarm earthquake activity of the 2008/2009 swarm terminates by 12 January 2009. During the main phase in our studied swarm period after 19 October, the b value of the Gutenberg–Richter relation decreases from 1.2 to 0.8. This trend is also reflected in the power-law behavior of the seismic moment release. The corresponding total seismic moment release of 1.02×10¹⁷ Nm is equivalent to M _L,max = 5.4.     

The middle-long term prediction of the February 3, 1996 Lijiang earthquake (MS=7) by the "criterion of activity in quiescence"

IntroductionIn the book Future CataS~ologr published in 1992, we proposed a viewpoiflt on using the"criterion of activity in quiescence" to predict big eathquake (MsZ7) (GUO, et al, 1992), and predicted in the book that in futore several years or in ten years a big earthquake (Ms27) will be possible to occur in the Zhongdian and nearby in Yunnan Province. In the 1994 nation-wide earthquake tendency consultation meeting we pointed out, once more, in the Zhongdian region of Yunnan Province…     

2015年11月23日青海祁连MS5.2地震震源机制解及发震构造初步探讨

采用CAP（Cut and Paste）方法反演了2015年11月23日青海祁连M_S5.2主震的震源机制解,其最佳双力偶解：节面Ⅰ走向109°、倾角58°、滑动角21°,节面Ⅱ走向8°、倾角72°、滑动角146°,矩震级M_W5.16,矩心震源深度约为9 km。结合震区的活动构造,判定发震断层面为节面Ⅰ,推测托勒山北缘活动断裂中段为此次地震的发震断裂。