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1.
The Vajont slide case history is reviewed from the instrumentation point of view.

In the first part, the situation before the major slide of October 9, 1963 is presented, in relation to the studies made and measures adopted to control the rate of movement. The measurements which were made are then discussed with respect to the slide and the theories that were developed at the time on the failure mechanism.

In the second part, the Vajont slide is considered from the modern geotechnical point of view. If engineers had had the benefit in 1960 of the knowledge we have now, over twenty five years later, what kind of instruments would they have installed and what measurements would they have made? The answers to these questions are discussed with reference to the possible prediction of the slide failure and the choice of a strategy to control the rate of failure.

Some aspects of the questions raised in the geotechnical community by the Vajont slope are still unresolved today, and require further research before we can safely predict the behaviour of a slide in a condition of incipient failure when, for reasons still not fully understood, the safety factor drops far below one.  相似文献   


2.
Analysis of the vajont slide — new approach   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
SummaryAnalysis of the Vajont Slide — New Approach This paper is concerned with the analysis of the 1963 Vajont slide in Italy. Attention is drawn to the fact that numerous investigations have been consistently unsuccessful in explaining the slide. A new approach consistent with a progressive failure mechanism established by all comprehensive investigations is suggested in this paper. The analysis simulates the transformation of the slope from a condition of stability to one of limit-equilibrium and failure in a step-by-step process. It is shown that the enormous velocities calculated on the basis of external observations of the slide can be explained by the new analytical approach.
ZusammenfassungAnalyse der Felsgleitung bei Vajont — Neuer Erklärungsversuch Dieser Artikel beschäftigt sich mit der Felsgleitung bei Vajont in Italien im Jahre 1963. Es wird darauf hingewiesen, daß es in einer Vielzahl anderer Untersuchungen bislang nicht möglich war, eine Erklärung für die Felsgleitung zu finden. Ein neues Modell, basierend auf dem Mechanismus des progressiven Zusammenbruchs wird vorgeschlagen. Die Untersuchung simuliert den Übergang des Hanges vom stabilen Zustand in ein Grenzgleichgewicht und schließlich den Zusammenbruch in einem Prozeß, der Schritt für Schritt abläuft. Es wird gezeigt, daß die enormen Geschwindigkeiten, die aufgrund von Beobachtungen berechnet wurden, im Rahmen dieses Modells erklärt werden können.

RésuméAnalyse de l'éboulement de Vajont — Nouvelle approche Cette communication constitue une analyse de l'éboulement de Vajont (Italie) en 1963. On souligne le fait que les nombreuses enquêtes entreprises pour expliquer cet éboulement se sont montrées infructueuses. Cette communication propose une nouvelle approche conforme à un mécanisme progressif de défaillances établi par toutes les enquêtes compréhensives. L'analyse simule la transformation graduelle de la pente: de la stabilité à l'équilibre limité et enfin à la défaillance. On démontre que les vélocités énormes calculées à base des observations externes de l'éboulement peuvent s'expliquer par cette nouvelle approche analytique.

Notation c unit effective cohesion - ø effective angle of shearing resistance (residual) - n proportion of the slip surface along which failure has progressed - K conjugate stress ratio for a slope - K 0 ratio of effective horizontal normal stress to effective vertical normal stress in the slope With 3 Figures  相似文献   

3.
On 9 October 1963, a rock mass of about 250 millions m3, with a front width of 1,850 m, a mean thickness of about 200 m and a length of 350–400 m, detached from Mt Toc, on the left side of the Vajont valley, NE Italy, and collapsed into the reservoir created by a 261 m high dam. About 40 millions m3 of water was displaced, climbed up 200 m on the opposite side and then destroyed the little town of Longarone causing more than 2,000 casualties. This event is well known and was the object of numerous technical and scientific studies, especially in the two decades following the disaster. This work proposes a re-examination of the matter, focusing on the numerical modelling of the landslide, and is carried out by using a 1D numerical code based on a Lagrangian approach. The model is properly conceived for cases with slide length prevailing on width. When the slide width is comparable or prevailing on length, as is the case of the Vajont slide, the mass is first partitioned into a number of longitudinal long and narrow sub-slides. The Vajont mass was subdivided into six strips and the motion of each sub-slide was computed. The knowledge of the final deposit position allowed us to constrain the value of some relevant parameters characterizing the slide motion, the most interesting being the friction coefficient μ, that we varied in order to obtain the best-fit between calculated and observed deposits. Taking into account the additional constraint that all sub-slides move with the same or at least with similar speed, and introducing a global misfit based on deposit and velocity misfits, we were able to show that solutions minimizing the global misfit exhibit a relevant difference between the basal friction coefficients of the western and of the eastern sides of the sliding surface, with the former being significantly smaller (0.14–0.16) than the latter (0.32–0.34).  相似文献   

4.
黄土坡复杂滑坡体形成机制研究对滑坡稳定性分析非常重要。通过地层对比并考虑软弱夹层的发育特征建立了巴东城区黄土坡斜坡原岩结构模型,斜坡前缘巴东组第三段上亚段岩体中软弱夹层发育密集,可与黄土坡滑坡深部多级滑带对应。数值模拟计算表明,斜坡在形成演化过程中斜坡前缘巴东组第三段上亚段岩体出现了明显的剪应变集中分布,变形深度与斜坡临江I号崩滑堆积体厚度基本一致,可见斜坡岩体结构和斜坡演化过程的应力应变特征控制了临江I号崩滑堆积体的形成。三峡水库蓄水后会加剧滑坡体的剪切变形,泥化夹层的存在容易诱发深层滑坡。   相似文献   

5.
The 12 March 2001 landslide at a slate quarry in Okayama, Japan killed three workers. Composite studies based on field surveys of the landslide slope, interviews with local residents and quarry workers, and inspections of hydrological and seismological data have been used to clarify the causes of this slide and its movements. The results indicate that the landslide was enabled firstly by the steepness of the slope, which had been undercut by river; secondly, the structure was that of a dip-slope that was prone to deep-seated slides along bedding planes; thirdly, numerous joints and faults were present. Surprisingly, rainfall, earthquakes, and explosions do not appear to have played any role in the triggering of this slide. The interviews demonstrated that the frequency of precursory failures increased over a period of several hours before the 12 March 2001 landslide. Inspection of the seismograph records and the eyewitness evidence both indicate that the main part of the landslide consisted of two phases of slope failure within 23 s. After the slide, the frequency of the failures gradually decreased with time over a period of several days. Three new terms are proposed for landslides: foreslide, mainslide, and afterslide, following the terms foreshock, main shock, and aftershock used in seismology.  相似文献   

6.
This paper investigates the influence of heterogeneity of undrained shear strength on the reliability of, and risk posed by, a long slope cut in clay, for different depths of foundation layer. The clay has been idealised as a linear elastic, perfectly plastic Von Mises material and its spatial variability has been modelled using random field theory, whereas slope performance has been computed using a parallel 3D finite element program. The results of Monte Carlo simulations confirm previous findings that three categories of failure mode are possible and that these are significantly influenced by the horizontal scale of fluctuation relative to the slope geometry. In particular, discrete 3D failures are likely for intermediate scales of fluctuation and, in this case, reliability is a function of slope length. The risk posed by potential slides has been quantified in terms of slide volumes and slide lengths, which have been estimated by considering the computed out-of-face displacements. The results show that, for a given horizontal scale of fluctuation relative to the slope geometry, there is a wide range of possible slide volumes and slide geometries. Indeed, the results highlight just how difficult it is to compute a 2D slope failure in a heterogeneous soil. However, they also indicate that, for low probabilities of failure, the volumes of potential slides can be small. This suggests that, for some problems, it may not be necessary to design to very small probabilities of failure, due to the reduced consequence of failure in this case. The techniques developed in this paper will be important in benchmarking simpler 2D and 3D solutions used in design, as there is a need to quantify slide geometries when benchmarking simpler methods based on predefined failure mechanisms.  相似文献   

7.
The Portuguese Bend landslide, in coastal southern California, is an active, slow-moving mass of blocks and debris that extends from the shoreline to moderate altitudes along part of the southerly margin of the Palos Verdes Hills. These hills form a peninsula that is underlain by Cenozoic sedimentary and volcanic rocks draped anticlinally over a core of Mesozoic schist. In the southerly parts of the peninsula, inherently weak units in the Altamira Shale Member of the Miocene Monterey Formation dip seaward in general concordance with the ground surface. Ground failure has been widespread in this area. It evidently began in mid- to late-Pleistocene time, and it has continued intermittently to the present.

The Portuguese Bend landslide represents a reactivation of movement of the eastern part of a complex of prehistoric landslides occupying an area of approximately two square miles. This latest episode of movement began in 1956, presumably in response to placement of fill during a road construction project. The active slide subsequently was enlarged by sequential failure of adjoining blocks of ground, and by September 1969 about 54,500,000 metric tons of debris was slowly moving downslope in an area of approximately 104 ha. Movement has been continuous since recent failure began in 1956, although the velocity of the active slide decreased markedly after that year. Between 1962 and 1972 the velocity fluctuated only slightly about an average value of about 1 cm per day.

The active slide is an irregular prism, roughly triangular in plan view. The southern side of the triangle trends approximately 1100 m east-west along a stretch of shoreline that essentially coincides with the toe of the slide. The other two sides of the triangle trend northeast and northwest from the ends of the toe and meet about 1200 m north of the shoreline. The thickness of the moving mass differs considerably from one place to another, reflecting both topographic irregularities and major undulations in the underlying surface of movement. The maximum thickness is approximately 75 m.

Movement is occurring along a distinct basal failure surface. The eastern part of the slide is underlain by bedrock, and is bordered by bedrock with a general structure that limits further deep-seated propagation of failure to the east and northeast. In contrast, the western part of the slide is underlain and bordered by extensive ancient landslide deposits that are marginally stable. Further encroachment of the active slide westward and northwestward into these materials was viewed as a distinct possibility at the time the dissertation was prepared and has occurred since then.

Continued movement of the Portuguese Bend landslide since 1956 has been due to four main factors. A rise in the water table during the period 1957–1968 has been documented in the northwestern part of the moving mass and is attributable mainly to infiltration of surface runoff entering numerous open fissures that cut the surface of the slide. The toe of the active slide daylights along the shoreline and is subjected to storm-wave erosion, so that any natural build-up of resisting forces is prevented in this area. The redistribution of mass as the slide has moved along an undulatory failure surface has been responsible for local fluctuations in the driving and resisting forces. Finally, smoothing of irregularities in the failure surface by the moving slide mass must have decreased some of the forces resisting movement.  相似文献   


8.
《Engineering Geology》2001,59(1-2):173-199
Large landslides are often characterised by complex activity resulting from their ability to suddenly change behaviour. In fact, these landslides can pass from a slump to a flow characterised by relatively high mobility. This characteristic is a cause of extremely high severity and hazard in areas affected by such phenomena. An interesting case of a large slide in glacial deposits, which occurred in 1993 in the Valcamonica of the Italian Alps, is presented. Different approaches both to characterise the coarse frictional materials involved in the slide and to model the slide initiation and its evolution are adopted. The initial slide mass had a volume of almost 2 Mm3 and after its initial sliding motion along the slope, flowed for about 7 km down the main valley stream. Voight's method has been used to analyse measured slope displacements recorded for a few years before the slope failure. This analysis provided evidence that different times of failure could have been predicted beforehand by rigorous examination of the available data. Laboratory tests and image/processing techniques have been performed to characterise the landslide material as resembling a “bimrock” (block in matrix material). Slope stability analyses have been performed and a dynamic modelling method has been tested on the flow by comparing its results to those obtained by analysis of eyewitness statements and field observations on the mudline left by the flow. Finally, existing empirical approaches for hazard assessment on an alluvial fan have been applied and modified to produce a hazard zonation map for the alluvial fan area by considering maximum expected discharge, local geometry of the channel and the possibility of channel occlusion and subsequent avulsion.  相似文献   

9.
Landslides and slope failures are recurrent phenomena in the Indian Himalayas. The study area comprises the hill slopes along a road stretch of 1.5 km at a distance of 9 km from Pipalkoti on Chamoli–Badrinath highway (NH-58) in the Garhwal Himalayas, India. Based on the field survey, contour map, and the hillshade, the study area has been divided into different zones. Three different zones/slopes in this study area including one potential debris slide, one stable debris slope, and one potential rock slide have been undertaken for investigation and modeling. Field mapping, data collection related to slope features and soil/rock sample collection, and discontinuity mapping for all the slopes have been carried out in field. Soil samples have been tested in the laboratory to determine the physico-mechanical properties. These properties along with some material properties from the literature have been used as input parameters for the numerical simulation. To investigate the failure process in the debris/rock slides as well as stable debris slope, the slopes were modeled as a continuum using 2D finite element plain strain approach. Shear strength reduction analysis was performed to determine the critical strength reduction factor. The computed deformations and the stress distributions, along the failure surface, have been compared with the field observations and found to be in good agreement. The analysis results indicated rock/debris slide slopes to be highly unstable. The debris slide modeling depicted failures both above and below road levels as observed in field. The rock slide modeling could depict the exact pattern of failure involving 3 sets of discontinuities simultaneously as observed in real-field scenario which is a major limitation in case of limit equilibrium analysis. The field-observed stable slope comes to be stable through FE analysis also. Based on these analyses, landslide hazard assessment of the study area could be done.  相似文献   

10.
More than 5000 landslides or potential landslides have been induced in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) region since the impoundment in 2003, which have caused great damage and remain a huge threat to the dam and people living in the reservoir area. Understanding the deformation characteristics and failure mechanism of the landslides can be helpful in stability evaluation and landslide prediction. The primary aim of this study is to research the characteristics of the landslide motion and its relationships with environmental triggers, taking the Quchi landslide, a large, slow-moving, reactivated landslide in the TGR region, as an example. The instability clearly showed visible signs of movements since 2002, and after that, the slope has been experiencing persistent deformation. By combining 4 years of meteorological, hydrological data with displacement measurements from open fractures, deep boreholes, and surface points, as well as in situ observations, this paper reports the geological and geotechnical investigations performed to define the movement. The deformation is believed to be governed by reservoir water levels, while the precipitation has a minor effect. Seasonally, the slope movement has a very distinctive pattern with large deformation starting abruptly right after reservoir drawdown in June and lasting into late summer (September). Then there is a rapid transition to constant deformation (almost no displacement) as the reservoir level rises. The slope displacements appear to gradually increase every year, which suggests very high possibility of the large and overall failure of the slide. Both monitoring results and geomorphological observations have highlighted that the two active slide masses Q1 and Q2 would probably collapse in different kinematic evolution modes, i.e., the multistage failure and whole sliding motion.  相似文献   

11.
We investigated the northern-central portion of Sicily region (southern Italy) using aerial photographs and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data obtained by ERS1 and ERS2 satellites. This area shows a geological-structural setting generated by the tectonic superposition of Apenninic-Maghrebian carbonatic structures on terrigenous deposits. Such a structural setting favoured the development of large-scale gravity-driven phenomena (known in the geological literature as deep-seated gravitational slope deformations) that are mostly responsible for the landscape evolution of the whole area. Morphological evidences such as landslides, sacking or rock-flow, lateral spread and block slide can be detected from photogeological analysis. In order to understand the temporal behaviour and spatial distribution of such deformations we applied the interferometric SAR (InSAR) technique. Interferograms show fringe patterns spatially coinciding with some of the large-scale gravitative phenomena previously identified by means of aerial-photo analysis. The comparison between photogeological data and InSAR results allows delimiting the active sectors in the study area.  相似文献   

12.
湖北长阳丹水撇洪渠出口左岸边坡稳定性分析及治理   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
根据对该边坡的变形破坏特征及形成条件分析,属滑移-拉裂型边坡。经受了诸如自重应力、构造应力、卸荷变形、降雨等内外因素作用,斜坡岩体沿软弱结构面发生滑移变形。随着剪裂面上的拉应力集中而产生拉裂缝,一旦破坏面贯通,将导致边坡破坏。用计算和经验相结合的方法确定了潜在滑面的位置,并通过参数反演,对滑坡的稳定性进行了定量评价。通过技术经济比较,针对边坡的形成机制、边坡各个部位的变形发展特点及其重要性,采取了分区治理措施。既达到了治理效果又节省了人力物力,可供从事类似22程评价和治理的22程人员参考。  相似文献   

13.
The western part of the Argentera–Mercantour massif (French Alps) hosts very large currently active landslides responsible of many disorders and risks to the highly touristic valleys of the Mercantour National Park and skiing resorts. A regional scale mapping of gravitational deformations has been compared to the main geo-structures of the massif. A relative chronology of the events has been established and locally compared to absolute 10Be dating obtained from previous studies. Two types of large slope destabilisations were identified as follows: deep-seated landslides (DSL) that correspond to rock volumes bounded by a failure surface, and deep-seated gravitational slope deformations (DSGSD) defined as large sagging zones including gravitation landforms such as trenches and scarps or counterscarps. Gravitational landforms are mainly collinear to major N140°E and N020°E tectonic faults, and the most developed DSGSD are located in areas where the slope direction is comparable to the orientation of faults. DSL are mostly included within DSGSD zones and located at the slopes foot. Most of DSL followed a similar failure evolution process according to postglacial over steepened topographies and resulting from a progressive failure growing from the foot to the top of the DSGSD that lasts over a 10 ky time period. This massif-scale approach shows that large-scale DSGSD had a peak of activity from the end of the last deglaciation, to approximately 7000 years bp. Both morphologic and tectonic controls can be invoked to explain the gravitational behaviour of the massif slopes.  相似文献   

14.
滑坡成因机制是深入认识、合理评价与有效防治滑坡的关键难点,其中黄土滑坡成因机制一直是中国工程地质界的研究热点问题之一。利用DEM,Quick bird影像与地面调查相结合完成了宝鸡市区渭河北岸黄土塬边大型滑坡详细编录与GIS制图,结合典型滑坡的钻探、物探成果,利用第四纪地质的最新成果,重建了渭河河谷构造地貌演化过程、查清了斜坡地层岩性组合、获得了新近系黏土地层工程地质特性参数和活动断裂的特征,初步建立了宝鸡渭河北岸黄土塬边大型黄土滑坡的概化模型。初步研究认为:(1)宝鸡渭河北岸在上新世早更新世时期古地形由北向南渐低,古地貌由山前冲洪积平原向古三门湖变化,且古三门湖逐渐消亡,早更新世晚期现今渭河形成且主流总体向北偏移,直至全新世偏离北岸,形成现今地貌格局的地貌演化过程。(2)黄土塬边渭河北缘断裂为晚更新世以来的活动正断裂系,其不仅是地下水的导水通道,而且为滑坡后壁和次级滑面的形成提供了可追踪的软弱结构面。(3)渭河北岸黄土塬边古、老滑坡是在渭河侧蚀和地下水作用下,追踪断裂面沿新近系硬黏土界面或硬黏土层内部发生的地堑地垒式多级坡基旋转、坡体平移或复合型滑坡,是受新近系三趾马红土或三门系黏土地层和断裂控制的特殊类型黄土滑坡。  相似文献   

15.
This study investigates the causes and failure mechanism of the Aksu landslide that occurred during the construction of the Giresun–Espiye road between KM: 1 + 030–1 + 170 in northern Turkey and recommends proper stabilization techniques. For the purpose of investigating the causes and mechanism of this slope failure, engineering geological mapping, geotechnical investigation and rock mass characterization were performed. From top to bottom, weathered tuffite, tuffite, flysch, and dacitic tuffite were the major units in the study area. The disturbance of the slope by the excavations performed at the toe of the slope (i.e., due to the foundation excavation for the Tünel restaurant building and for the road cut) led to a “translational slide”. The “translational slide” occurred in completely weathered tuffite due to the disturbance of the stability of the slope by the excavations performed at the toe of the slope, particularly for the foundation excavation of the Tünel restaurant building and for the road cut along the Giresun–Espiye road. The rise in the groundwater level was also another important factor that has contributed to the occurrence of the landslide. After establishing the geometry of the landslide in detail, the shear strength parameters of the failure surface were determined by the back analysis method. Sensitivity analyses were performed and landslide failure mechanisms were modeled to quantify the contributing factors that have caused the formation of the Aksu landslide. The influence of an earthquake was investigated through pseudostatic slope stability analysis. Toe buttressing, ground water drainage, and surface water drainage alternatives were considered for stabilizing the slope.  相似文献   

16.
倾斜基岩上的边坡破坏模式和稳定性分析   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
应用离心模型试验对工程中被颇为关注的带有与边坡走向一致的倾斜基岩面,且在该基岩面存在软弱夹层的边坡的稳定性和破坏模式进行了比较详细地研究,并用极限平衡分析方法对试验结果进行了计算分析。模型试验结果表明,该类边坡失稳时,紧贴岩面的软弱夹层就成为滑动破坏面,因而边坡整体沿基岩面向下滑动,且侧向水平位移各处基本一致,表现出典型的平移滑动破坏模式。将稳定安全系数的实测结果与按平移滑动破坏模式的极限平衡分析方法的计算结果相比较后发现,两者相当地吻合,证实了按平移滑动破坏模式所作的极限平衡分析,能良好地预测边坡平移滑动破坏情形下的稳定安全系数。  相似文献   

17.
Occurrences of landslide are most common and critical issue in North-East India. The various types of slope failures have been affected most part of slopes and road section between Malidor to Sonapur area (approx 30 Km) along NH-44 within Jaintia hills district, Meghalaya, India. These slope failures causes considerable loss of life and property along with many inconveniences such as disruption of traffic along highways. The unscientific excavations of rock slopes for road widening or construction purposes may weaken the stability of the slopes. The rocks exposed in the area are highly jointed sandstone and shale of Barail Group of Oligocene age. The Sonapur landslide is most dangerous and destructive rock fall-cum debris flow. The present study includes the kinematic analysis of the slope to assess the potential failure directions as the rocks are highly jointed in some parts of road cut sections. The continuous slope mass rating (CSMR) technique has been applied for slope stability analysis at five vulnerable locations. Kinematic analysis indicates mainly wedge type of failure along with few toppling and planar failures. These failure required immediate treatment to prevent the slide and long term stability of the slope.  相似文献   

18.
High-resolution digital elevation models are crucial to the investigation of natural disasters, and a variety of methods based on visualization and relief map compilations have been proposed. In this study, the sky view factor (SVF) is applied to slope maps and a digital elevation model (DEM) of the Oso landslide, a deadly landslide that occurred in Washington State on March 22, 2014, to demonstrate the effectiveness of SVF-enhanced relief maps in mapping and evaluating large-scale or deep-seated landslide hazards. A procedure for combining the SVF-enhanced DEM with slope and elevation maps is also presented. Then the maps are used to extract the landslide-prone areas and perform a reactivation analysis of the post-Oso landslide using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP). By using the SVF-enhanced DEM to perform the AHP assessment on multi-period images, we accurately evaluate hazard of the landslide for both pre and post-2014 conditions. Finally, different visualization maps, limitation and recommend parameters for generating SVF relief map are presented in the paper.  相似文献   

19.
Badong town is a new immigration area in the Three Gorges reservoir, China, which is built on many giant deep-seated landslides. In this region, the slope deformation is very severe and it is strongly correlated with the incompetent beds, which are distributed widely in the rock mass. In this paper, two giant deep-seated translational rock landslides used as study cases are Huangtupo landslide and Zhaoshuling landslide. Firstly, the composition materials, structures and deformation characteristics of the two landslides are analyzed. Then, the position, structure, mineral composition and the formation mechanism of the incompetent beds are studied in detail. Finally, based on the comparison of the position, mineral and structure between incompetent beds and sliding zones of the landslides, the correlations between incompetent beds and giant landslide are discussed. The results indicate that 13 large incompetent beds exist in the middle Triassic Badong Formation strata, which can be divided into three types as weak interlayers, crushed beds and groundwater corrosion zones. The dominant minerals in the incompetent beds are illite, chlorite, quartz and calcite. The contents of the clay minerals in different positions are quite distinct, and the maximum difference of clay content exceeds 70 %. In addition, it is found that the contents of minerals in incompetent beds are similar to the slide zones of the landslides. The initial deformation of slopes normally developed along the incompetent beds, which induced subsequent shear displacement easily. Under the effect of gravity, the deep slip zones were generated mainly along the incompetent beds and the failure mode evolved from creep to integral slide gradually. The results can provide an important reference for the mechanism analysis and prevention of landslides in Badong town.  相似文献   

20.
Both the occurrence and behaviour of the Vaiont landslide have not been satisfactorily explained previously because of difficulties arising from the assumption that the failure surface was ‘chair’ shaped. It is now known that there was no ‘chair’, which means that the 1963 landslide could not have been a reactivated ancient landslide because the residual strength of the clay interbeds would have been insufficient for stability prior to 1963. Furthermore, the moderately translational geometry reduces the influence of reservoir-induced groundwater and hence of submergence. Standard stability analyses now show that prior to 1960, the average shear strength must have significantly exceeded the peak shear strength of the clay interbeds known to have formed the majority of the failure surface. Three-dimensional stability analyses confirm these results and show that at the time of the first significant movements in 1960, the rising reservoir level had a negligible effect on the Factor of Safety. According to these results, the Vaiont landslide was most likely initiated by pore water pressures associated with transient rainfall-induced ‘perched’ groundwater above the clay layers, in combination with a smaller than hitherto assumed effect of reservoir impounding, then developed by brittle crack propagation within the clay beds, thus displaying progressive failure. Further, very heavy rainfall accelerated the process, possibly due to reservoir-induced groundwater impeding drainage of the rainwater, until the limestone beds at the northeast margin failed. With the shear strength suddenly reduced to residual throughout, the entire mass was released and was able to accelerate as observed.  相似文献   

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