基于雾霾案例的新媒体时代科学传播范式研究

新媒体环境下,以雾霾为切入点的环境问题迅速成为公众、媒体和政府关注的焦点,各利益相关方表现出对雾霾科学信息的不同需求。科学成果在传播内容及其表现形式、传播主体、传播路径等方面呈现出新的模式：成果传播的受众由少至多,成果传播的内容和形式不断多样化,成果数量呈现爆发式增长,更新速率不断加快,传播主体大众化,传播路径由单一向多元化转变;新媒体在有助于推动公众参与环境保护的同时,也给科学传播工作带来了挑战,建议有效利用新媒体的传播渠道,加强环境信息及科学知识的公开和普及,以提高环境保护和治理的能力。     

季风亚洲区域集成研究国际计划(MAIRS)10年回顾

季风亚洲区域集成研究（Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study,简称MAIRS）是国际全球变化研究计划（GEC）和地球系统科学联盟（ESSP）的一个子计划,是全球变化邻域第一个由中国科学家提出,并组织实施的国际计划,历时10余年。MAIRS明确提出:不同于过去和正在进行的任何一个关于季风的研究计划,MAIRS研究的主题是人类与季风系统的相互作用。本文从四个方面回顾了这个计划的历程:（1）2003~2006年的可行性研究。包括区域集成研究概念的提出、亚洲区域全球变化研究的快速评估、以及在此基础上确定MAIRS的总体科学目标和起草MAIRS的科学计划。（2）2006年正式发布的MAIRS科学计划的主要内容。包括季风亚洲区域面临的环境变化和研究挑战、集成研究的科学问题、四个最脆弱区域的确定以及计划执行的方法和手段等。（3）2006~2016年MAIRS计划的执行情况。包括组织结构、科学活动、研究项目和成果、以及国际合作网络的建立。（4）MAIRS的国际影响和未来发展。MAIRS与未来地球国际计划（Future Earth）。     

在融合科学领域开展协同设计与协同实施的思考与建议

<正>当前,世界面临着气候变化、资源短缺、生态破坏、环境污染、恐怖活动蔓延等一系列全球性重大挑战,对人类生存与发展提出了许多新的严峻课题。在此背景下,融合式研究、融合科学领域研究等新兴的科学研究组织模式逐渐兴起。面对这一新趋势,如何组织和管理融合科学领域的研究活动,是科技工作者面临的一大问题。未来地球计划(Future Earth,简称FE)倡导的协同设计与协同实施(co-design,     

科学大数据在全球气候变化研究中的应用

本文从气候系统观测资料、数值模拟资料、经济社会资料和土地利用资料等方面论述了全球气候变化的科学大数据的构成。为推动气候变化大数据的应用,需要进一步发展集成融合、存储共享、数字模拟和数据挖掘等新的科学大数据处理技术方法。文章还分析了科学大数据在全球气候服务框架和未来地球计划中的应用价值,并对其未来发展进行了展望。     

FIO-ESM v2.0模式及其参与CMIP6的方案

目前,世界气候研究计划（WCRP）组织的国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP）已经进入到第六阶段（CMIP6),CMIP6试验的开展也已成为国内外地球系统模式工作组的首要工作之一。自然资源部第一海洋研究所地球系统模式FIO-ESM是以耦合自主开发的海浪模式为特色的地球系统模式。在参与CMIP5的FIO-ESM v1.0的基础上,通过升级分量模式、改进海气通量相关物理过程和提高分辨率等,FIO-ESM v2.0现已完成研发,正在开展CMIP6科学计划的相关试验。文中围绕FIO-ESM v2.0的特色和计划参与CMIP6的情况,介绍了FIO-ESM v2.0的模式框架、包含的特色物理过程以及拟参加的CMIP6科学计划情况,以方便气候研究领域的科学家了解和使用。     

适应性治理与气候变化：内蒙古草原案例分析与对策探讨

适应性治理通过边学边做,针对各地方的社会经济条件、自然生态系统、地方知识文化等基本特征,基于一个动态、自下而上和自组织的过程不断测试和修正制度安排与知识体系,形成一个旨在解决实际问题的循环过程。通过内蒙古3个地区案例的对比分析研究,基于对其气候变化风险和社会脆弱性的评估,发现其在气候变化影响下形成的不同程度的社会脆弱性正是源于不同的草原利用机制和基于此的社会合作机制。正是因为3个案例地的牧民有着不同的社会资本和社会记忆,所以他们面对极端天气导致的自然灾害时,采取了不同的应对方式,有的牧户可以依赖于社会资本移动牲畜来渡过难关,有的牧户则可以在嘎查范围内重启社会记忆,通过合理安排草场利用和移动牲畜提高自身的抗灾能力,而有的牧户则只能通过买草料独立抗灾。这样不同的结果有力证明了适应性治理在提升这些地区气候变化应对能力方面的必要性和可行性。在地区层面引入适应性治理,可以满足各利益相关方的需求,有利于自然、社会及管理的多学科协同,与“未来地球计划”的协同设计、协同实施和协同推广理念不谋而合,是“未来地球”思想在气候变化适应研究中的实践。     

ESSP 全球环境变化与人类健康报告

地球系统科学联盟（EssP）最近发表了《全球环境变化与人类健康——科学计划和实施战略》的报告。报告首先对环境变化的定义及其对人类影响的途径进行了描述，在第2章描述和提出了概念框架和主要科学问题。在随后给出的科学主题中，讨论了大气成分变化与健康、土地利用和植被变化与健康、全球环境变化与传染性疾病、食品生产体系与人类健康、都市化与人类健康和脆弱性与适应性等相关问题。报告最后在给出实施战略时，特别强调了多学科的研究方法以及数据的获取，而开展综合性的研究和全球充分的合作，是我们适应全球环境变化，使人类健康少受影响的必然之路。     

地球系统动力学模式及模拟研究

将地球上大气、海洋、地理环境和生态各圈看成一个有机的整体进行研究,并统一协调全球气候、生态与环境变化的有关研究（如WCRP、IGBP、IHDP、DIVERSITAS及IPCC、Global Change等),现称为地球系统动力学。它是新兴的学科,其核心之一就是要建立地球系统动力学理论模式并作模拟研究。本文主要概述了我国地球系统动力学模式研制和发展的有关现状及近年来特别是中国科学院“三期创新”资源和海洋科技创新基地重要方向项目群“地球系统动力学模式研究”启动前后所取得的阶段性成果及主要进展,指出了我国地球系统动力学模式发展应重点研究和解决的科学问题及其主要特色,其中有不少结果是新颖的和具有我国特点的。     

青藏高原地气系统气象科学数据集成和共享

观测资料匮乏是制约青藏高原地球科学问题深入研究的关键因素。中国气象局国家气象信息中心联合中国气象科学研究院、中国科学院青藏高原研究所和西北生态环境资源研究院对近几十年来我国青藏高原区域的地气系统的大气和陆面观测资料及相关分析产品进行了整合集成,获得了高原区域长年代、多要素的地气系统综合气象数据,研发了综合气象数据库及其数据共享平台。本文系统介绍了相关科学数据的观测及数据情况,包括中国气象局长期业务观测数据、历次青藏高原大气科学试验数据、中国科学院部分野外台站长期观测试验数据和一些科学研究项目的产出数据成果,描述了多种数据的标准化集成技术和成果,设计并发布了青藏高原地气系统多源信息共享平台,为研究和解决青藏高原地球科学问题提供宝贵的数据资源。     

CMIP6年代际气候预测计划（DCPP）概况与评述

年代际气候预测计划（DCPP）是第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的子计划之一,其目标是利用多模式开展气候系统年代际预测、可预测性和变率机制研究。DCPP设计了3组试验,即年代际回报试验、预报试验以及理解年代际变率机制和可预测性的敏感性试验。目前有21个模式拟参与DCPP计划,其中包括5个来自中国的模式。DCPP将推动解决气候系统从年际到年代际尺度预测相关的多项科学问题,评估当前气候预测系统预报技巧,挖掘潜在可预报性,研究长时间尺度气候变率形成机制,提供对科学和社会有用的预测产品。     

运用气象影视节目强化气象科普宣传

通过对目前气象科普知识宣传现状的分析,找出存在的问题和电视气象节目气象科普宣传的优势,提出强化电视气象节目气象科普宣传的建议,为我们搞好气象科技服务打下良好的社会基础.     

突发气象灾害科普视频制作的创新模式——以科普视频《揭秘广西桂林临桂区“3·21”17级大风》为例

采用“故事化叙事”手法,以制作科普视频《揭秘广西桂林临桂区“3·21”17级大风》为例探讨了突发气象灾害科普视频的制作思路和创新要点。通过运用图形和动画对分钟级的精细化实况数据、雷达回波图进行可视化展现,可使气象科普视频通俗易懂,可看性和趣味性增强。     

第四范式视角下的大数据科学

随着物联网、云计算技术的飞速发展,大数据及其相关科学成为学术界和工业界关注的热点.本文从范式理论的角度对大数据科学进行剖析,阐述大数据研究与传统研究的联系与区别;从机器学习的视角出发,分析了大数据带来的三大主要挑战及其背后的科学问题.此外,本文介绍了第四范式视角下进行大数据科学研究的洞察力,以及其所具有的积极意义;最后总结并展望未来大数据科学面临的挑战.     

Assessing the ‘usability’ of climate change research for decision-making: A case study of the Canadian International Polar Year

The creation of ‘usable science’ is widely promoted by many environmental change focused research programs. Few studies however, have examined the relationship between research conducted as part of such programs and the decision-making outcomes that the work is supposed to advance, and is constrained by limited methodological development on how to empirically assess the ‘usability’ of science. Herein, this paper develops a conceptual model and assessment rubric to quantitatively and systematically evaluate the usability of climate change research for informing decision-making. We focus on the process through which data is collected, analyzed and reported and examine the extent to which key principles of usable science are integrated into project design, using grant proposals as our data source. The approach is applied to analyze climate change research conducted as part of the International Polar Year in Canada, with 23 projects identified as having explicit goals to inform decision-making.While the creation of usable science was promoted by funded projects in the International Polar Year, this was not generally reflected in research design: fewer than half determined objectives with input of decision makers, decision context was not widely considered, and knowledge users were not widely reported to be engaged in assessing the quality of data or in resolving conflict in evidence. The importance of science communication was widely emphasized, although only 8/23 projects discussed tailoring specific results for end user needs. Thus while International Polar Year research has made significant advances in understanding the human dimensions of Arctic climate change, key attributes necessary for determining success in linking science to decision-making (pertinence, quality, timeliness) were not captured by many projects. Integrating these attributes into research design from the outset is essential for creating usable science, and needs to be at the forefront of future research programs which aim to advance societal outcomes. The framework for assessing usability here, while developed and tested in an Arctic climate change context, has broader applicability in the general environmental change field.     

农业气象信息网自助生成系统设计与实现

本文介绍了2008年山西省气象科技服务全省情况和市、县基本情况,从不同角度对科技服务主要项目进行了深入细致分析并且和过去几年进行对比,给出了近年来科技服务的发展趋势,提出了应进一步结合全省的实际情况不断完善气象科技服务人才的引进、培养、评价和激励机制。     

公众为何对气候变化的科学结论信任不充分

通过系统分析世界各国气候传播领域近年来的进展,以解释为何公众对气候变化的科学结论缺乏信任这一复杂问题.文中首先概述了各国公众对气候变化的态度以及影响公众态度的社会、政治与经济因素,再分析了各国媒体对气候变化的报道及其媒体效果,并重点探究了社会心理因素如何影响人们对气候变化的认知与态度.此外国际气候传播研究对我国气候传播...     

Stories from the IPCC: An essay on climate science in fourteen questions

Women’s experiences as Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) authors, have been explored showing how gender, race, nationality, etc. increase barriers to participate in the production of climate science even for the best scientists. Recently, the IPCC Gender Task Force, conducted another survey exploring barriers to participation in the IPCC that included men as well as women. The Gender Task Force released a report on gendered barriers mostly focusing on quantitative responses. This paper presents a qualitative analysis of the fourteen open-ended questions in the survey. In addition to qualitative analysis, storytelling and the concept of feminist objectivity are useful approaches to convey the complicated web of responses of over 500 scientists about their experiences participating in the IPCC and in climate science more broadly. Gender, race and nationality continue to be barriers. I stress the connection between exclusions of underrepresented scientists in the IPCC with the persistent western belief that science is an objective and impartial practice. The paper brings attention to exclusionary structures that prevent participation in the IPCC and in science more broadly, but also provides stories of how these are resisted. These stories go beyond recognizing people as disadvantaged toward addressing the intersecting structures that exclude people from participating in science. As climate science becomes more diverse, and evidence points toward the benefit of diversity for superior science, understanding barriers and opportunities for scientists participating in multidisciplinary and international reports such as the IPCC becomes increasingly important. The stories provide a theoretical and methodological catalyst for international science institutions who seek to increase the influence and presence of underrepresented groups in science and produce superior science.     

基础四国加强气候变化科技合作的必要性和可能性

基础四国在应对气候变化的科技合作方面,具有共同参与的广泛兴趣和优势互补的双赢特点。四国应对气候变化科技合作,不仅能促进四国的科技研发和示范推广及成果产业化的进程,进一步扩大四国在气候变化领域的利益交集,还将不断加深四国在气候变化谈判中的相互理解和支持。 四国已有气候变化科技合作的基础,合作中面临的障碍也有可能克服。四国科技合作不仅具有必要性,也有可能性。     

Dealing with climate science denialism: experiences from confrontations with other forms of pseudoscience

Climate science denialism is a form of pseudoscience. This contribution provides proposals for how to counter it, based on previous research on the demarcation between science and pseudoscience and on the author’s experience of tackling other forms of pseudoscience. Science denialism has much in common with other variants of pseudoscience, but it also has characteristics of its own. In particular, it is much more prone than other forms of pseudoscience to seek conflicts with genuine science. Like other science denialists, those attacking climate science have fabricated a large number of fake controversies in issues where there is no authentic scientific controversy. The defence of climate science against science denial has to take this into account. There is no reason to accept the denialists’ agenda or to treat their claims as legitimate alternatives to science. Climate science should primarily be presented to the public in ways that are independent of denialist activities, rather than reactively in response to those activities. Disclosures of the strategies, motives and funding of denialism are important contributions to the public understanding of the fake controversies. It is also important to document the scientific consensus and make it known. The public defence of climate science is an important and urgent undertaking, and active contributions by as many scientists as possible are needed.

Key policy insights

• Climate science denialism is a form of pseudoscience, and much can be learned from confrontations with other types of pseudoscience.

• The creation of fake controversies is a key strategy of climate science denialism. It is important to expose this strategy and not to accept denialists’ choice of an agenda.

• ‘Equal time’ arrangements should be rejected since they put the truthful side at a disadvantage. It takes more time to refute a single lie than to deliver ten new ones.

• The experience from fighting tobacco science denialism shows that it is highly efficient to expose the hidden operations, funding and motives behind denialism.

• As many scientists as possible should take part in the public defence of climate science. This is one of the best ways to show our consensus.