唐山大震后邢台、海城老震区的同步"颤扰"现象

1.前言1976年7月28日唐山7.8级地震后,从对观测资料的分析中作者发现了一种特殊现象:在邢台地区的红山地震台记录到唐山大震区的强余震后10小时之内,邢台地区发生的小震的初动方向与唐山强余震有很好的一致性。为了检验其可靠性,作者同时也将石硼峪地震台记录的唐山强余震与海城地区发生的小震作同样的分析对比,发现该台在同样的时段内记录的海     

唐山地震的能量释放特点

1976年7月28日河北省唐山地区发生的7.8级大震是华北地区二十世纪以来最大的一次地震。我们根据公式: lg E=11.8 1.5M (1)计算了唐山地震序列(到1982年底止)78个月的总能量已达到3.7797×10~(23)尔格。它比邢台、渤海、海城三次大震序列同样长时间所释放的能量大得多(表1)。     

1966年以来华北地区一系列七级大震破裂过程的数值模拟

用非连续变形分析方法(DDA+FEM)数值模拟，在华北地区各地块相互制约的块体系统环境中，地块边界断层上发生1966年邢台地震、 1969年渤海地震、 1975年海城地震、 1976年唐山地震等不同类型破裂模式大震的破裂过程. 数值模拟结果给出每个大震释放的主应力场，最大剪应力变化等值线图，地震前后位移变化矢量图，发震断层滑移随时间变化以及走滑错距和应力降等震源参数. 这些结果与地震的震源机制，用地震波资料研究得到的震源参数,宏观等震线,地表观测的水平位移矢量图基本一致. 其中1969年渤海地震正交破裂模式的结果与宏观等震线及小震分布图像更接近. 1976年唐山地震复杂震源模式与该震早期余震分布图像更相符. 表明用DDA+FEM方法进行数值模拟研究，能较好地模拟地震破裂过程.     

邢台、渤海、海城和唐山大地震震中区现今应变场的基本特征

根据近十多年来华北地区GPS网的观测资料,分别计算了邢台、渤海、海城和唐山4次Ms7级以上大地震震中区现今应变场的主应变参数。计算结果表明,由GPS观测得到的邢台、渤海、海城、唐山地震震中区的主压应变轴方向与震前震中及周围地区的主压应力轴方向是一致的或基本上是一致的,这说明震中区的局部应力场经过震后30~40年的调整,震中区局部的应力场已基本上与区域应力场趋于一致。当前,邢台地震区主压应变率很小为-0.352×10-9/yr,主张应变率较大为3.306×10-9/yr,张应变占绝对优势,地壳处于拉张状态;在渤海地震区,主压应变率为2.593×10-9/yr,比主张应变率(2.947×10-9/yr)略小一些,二者比较接近;在海城地震区,主压应变率为1.276×10-9/yr,小于主张应变率(2.940×10-9/yr),地壳以张应变为主;在唐山地震区,主压应变率为4.539×10-9/yr,大于主张应变率(3.477×10-9/yr),压应变占优势。     

地震的"序列归属"问题与ETAS模型——以唐山序列为例

历史上发生过强震地区的余震活动可能持续较长时间,而余震序列在何时可被看作正常的"背景地震活动",即"序列归属"问题在地球动力学和地震物理中有重要意义.时-空"传染型余震序列"(ETAS)模型可分离"背景"地震和"丛集"地震,并用概率形式表示作为相应事件的可能性,为考察此问题提供了可能.本文以1976年唐山M_S7.8地震序列为例,对唐山地区1970年以来的M_L4.0以上地震进行了时-空ETAS模型拟合,并以2010年以来发生的3次M_S4.0以上地震为例讨论了它们的"序列归属"问题.研究结果显示,3次M_S4.0以上地震的背景地震概率分别为0.72、0.88和0.76,表明它们作为1976年唐山M_S7.8的余震的可能性较低,更可能为背景地震.     

华北强烈地震深部构造环境的探测与研究

20世纪六七十年代以来, 华北地区发生了一系列强烈地震． 强烈地震的孕育、 发生和发展与深部构造密切相关． 近50年来, 我国地震科学领域在强烈地震的地震构造和深部环境方面开展了大量的研究． 深部地球物理探测和地震层析成像结果揭示了华北地区地壳结构的基本特征, 并在强烈地震发生的深部构造环境等问题上取得了重要进展． 本文在回顾华北地区地壳上地幔结构探测的基础上, 对1966年邢台M_S7.2, 1976年唐山M_S7.8, 1975年海城M_S7.3和1679年三河—平谷M8.0地震的地震构造和深部构造环境进行评述． 深部地球物理数据的综合分析表明, 震源下方的低速异常带, 高角度超壳深断裂, 地壳深浅构造的不一致, 偏低的上地幔顶部速度和局部隆起的莫霍界面, 是华北伸展构造区深部孕震环境的共同特征．      

唐山老震区40年地震时空演化特征分析

基于唐山老震区40年的小震目录,利用传统的余震时序分析法,分析了余震序列的时间演化特征;依据强度分级原则,分析了不同强度的地震空间图像的时间演化特征。基于小震目录,分析了1996年以来的小震密集图像特征。参考多年来唐山地震的研究成果,对余震时空演化特征与构造关系进行了深入分析。结果表明:1976年唐山7.8级地震的余震序列,随着时间推移,其地震强度逐步减弱,地震频度逐渐降低;余震强度的起伏明显,主震发生后36年仍有5.0级地震发生;地震空间分布图像在1996年前后具有明显的差异分布特征。     

唐山老震区地震活动特征

整理校正唐山长时间地震序列数据,用基于时空ETAS模型的随机除丛法,分析1976年唐山长时间地震序列的活动特点,发现唐山老震区1992年后进入余震活动的晚期阶段,目前地震活动未完全恢复到背景地震的水平。用频度和应变能两种不同的异常指标分析唐山老震区作为“余震窗口”对中强震的指示意义,发现唐山余震窗口的早期阶段（1980-1986年）,频次作异常指标映震效果较好,晚期阶段（1992-2010年）,应变能作为异常指标映震效果更好。     

华北地区地震活动与地壳热结构关系研究

本文应用双差定位法对2009—2015年华北地区发生的地震进行了重新定位, 共得到6225次地震的精确定位结果. 结果显示, 重定位后的小震更加集中分布于断裂附近, 震源深度多为5—15 km. 利用基于三维分形磁化模型的中心点法获得了华北地区的居里点深度并计算了磁性层的平均地温梯度, 进而利用随温度变化的热导率一维稳态热传导方程获得了华北地区的地壳温度结构． 结果显示: ① 除张渤地震带中东部地区以外, 大多数地震均发生在地温梯度较小的地方; ② 1966年邢台M_S7.2地震和1976年唐山M_S7.8地震均发生在地温梯度较小的地方, 二者发生的温度约为200℃—300℃; ③ 大多数M≥2.0地震发生的温度为100℃—500℃, M≥4.0地震发生的温度多为200℃—400℃． 这些温度与实验室地壳岩石脆-塑性变形过渡区的温度测量值相当, 表明华北地区的地震多发生在地壳脆-塑性变形过渡区．      

辽宁地区的地震活动性

1975年海城7.3级大震前后,辽宁地区地震活动的时空分布具有显著不同的特征。大震前,小震活动主要集中在辽东半岛,以海城为中心逐渐形成围空区,小震活动自外围向震中区迁移和集中,震前一年,能量及频次急剧增加。大震以后地震活动明显的受北东和北西两个构造方向的控制,形成NE和NW方向的地震活动带。全区出现明显的地震活动重复周期,时间为19个月左右,近于”倍九“的关系。辽西地区的地震活动受唐山地震余震活动的控制,两者呈紧密的呼应关系,形成广义的余震。     

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

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Distribution of throughfall and stemflow in multi‐strata agroforestry,perennial monoculture,fallow and primary forest in central Amazonia,Brazil

The partitioning of rain water into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss when passing through plant canopies depends on properties of the respective plant species, such as leaf area and branch angles. In heterogeneous vegetation, such as tropical forest or polycultural systems, the presence of different plant species may consequently result in a mosaic of situations with respect to quantity and quality of water inputs into the soil. As these processes influence not only the water availability for the plants, but also water infiltration and nutrient leaching, the understanding of plant effects on the repartitioning of rain water may help in the optimization of land use systems and management practices. We measured throughfall and stemflow in a perennial polyculture (multi‐strata agroforestry), monocultures of peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) for fruit and for palmito, a monoculture of cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum), spontaneous fallow and primary forest during one year in central Amazonia, Brazil. The effect on rain water partitioning was measured separately for four useful tree species in the polyculture and for two tree species in the primary forest. Throughfall at two stem distances, and stemflow, differed significantly between tree species, resulting in pronounced spatial patterns of water input into the soil in the polyculture system. For two tree species, peach palm for fruit (Bactris gasipaes) and Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa), the water input into the soil near the stem was significantly higher than the open‐area rainfall. This could lead to increased nutrient leaching when fertilizer is applied close to the stem of these trees. In the primary forest, such spatial patterns could also be detected, with significantly higher water input near a palm (Oenocarpus bacaba) than near a dicotyledonous tree species (Eschweilera sp.). Interception losses were 6·4% in the polyculture, 13·9 and 12·3% in the peach palm monocultures for fruit and for palmito, respectively, 0·5% in the cupuaçu monoculture and 3·1% in the fallow. With more than 20% of the open‐area rainfall, the highest stemflow contributions to the water input into the soil were measured in the palm monocultures and in the fallow. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Anthropogenic Eutrophication and Red Tide Outbreak in Lacustrine Systems of the Kashmir Himalaya

Red tide, a recurrent phenomenon has become conspicuous in several Kashmir lake ecosystems since 1991. The responsible organism (Euglena pedunculata), a rare flagellate rediscovered in the Kashmir Himalaya (Khan 1993) caused first and unprecedented red tide outbreak, constituting a maximum of 96% of resident numerical phytoplankton density in Dal Lake. At present, conflicting hypotheses exist on the generation of causal assemblage(s) imparting redness to waters: Jeeji Bai (1991) linked its origin to acid precipitation – a fallout of burning oil‐fields during the Gulf War – whilst Khan (1993) holds local factor(s) responsible. Field/experimental studies support the latter contention that the influx of untreated sewage, in unison with warm temperatures, high levels of PhAR, iron and interruption to hydrological flow‐pattern together with absence/or reduction in grazing activity created conducive environmental milieu for red tide outbreak. Dal Lake “red tide” drifted the bloom‐inoculum to other waters, including Lake Wular, where additional ecological niches were carved out, threatening the aesthetic value and biological diversity of Kashmir lakes. Ecological monitoring indicates frequent seasonal red tide occurrence in Dal Lake (including summer‐autumn event of 1998) which testifies its unabated eutrophication status. Further studies are needed on ecological adaptability and biogeographic distribution of this rare and unique red tide‐causing flagellate.