An intimate coupling of ocean–atmospheric interaction over the extratropical North Atlantic and Pacific

The inter-basin teleconnection between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific ocean–atmosphere interaction is studied using a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. In the model, an idealized oceanic temperature anomaly is initiated over the Kuroshio and the Gulf Stream extension region to track the coupled evolution of ocean and atmosphere interaction, respectively. The experiments explicitly demonstrate that both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic ocean–atmosphere interactions are intimately coupled through an inter-basin atmospheric teleconnection. This fast inter-basin communication can transmit oceanic variability between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific through local ocean-to-atmosphere feedbacks. The leading mode of the extratropical atmospheric internal variability plays a dominant role in shaping the hemispheric-scale response forced by oceanic variability over the North Atlantic and Pacific. Modeling results also suggest that a century (two centuries) long observations are necessary for the detection of Pacific response to Atlantic forcings (Atlantic response to Pacific forcing).     

Interdecadal Enhancement of the Walker Circulation over the Tropical Pacific in the Late 1990s

The Walker circulation is one of the major components of the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation and variations in its strength are critical to equatorial Pacific Ocean circulation.It has been argued in the literature that during the 20th century the Walker circulation weakened,and that this weakening was attributable to anthropogenic climate change.By using updated observations,we show that there has been a rapid interdecadal enhancement of the Walker circulation since the late 1990s.Associated with this enhancement is enhanced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific,anomalous westerlies in the upper troposphere,descent in the central and eastern tropical Pacific,and anomalous surface easterlies in the western and central tropical Pacific.The characteristics of associated oceanic changes are a strengthened thermocline slope and an enhanced zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific.Many characteristics of these changes are similar to those associated with the mid-1970s climate shift with an opposite sign.We also show that the interdecadal variability of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is inversely correlated to the interdecadal variability of the zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic.An enhancement of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is associated with a weakening zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic and vise versa,implying an inter-Atlantic-Pacific connection of the zonal overturning circulation variation.Whether these recent changes will be sustained is not yet clear,but our research highlights the importance of understanding the interdecadal variability,as well as the long-term trends,that influence tropical circulation.     

热带太平洋低层环流主模态与东亚大气环流的可能联系

利用1958—2001年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,探讨了热带太平洋(100°E~60°W,10°S~10°N)10 m风场的时空变化特征及其与东亚大气环流的可能联系。结果表明:1)热带太平洋风场异常存在两种主模态,第一模态对应中西太平洋一致的西(东)风异常,关于赤道呈准对称分布,与ENSO(El Nio-Southern Oscillation)暖(冷)位相时风场的分布对应;第二模态则关于赤道呈反对称分布,西北太平洋存在显著的反气旋(气旋)式环流,中太平洋异常西风不再位于赤道上,而是南移到了10°S左右,对应ENSO暖(冷)位相向相反位相转换时的风场分布特征。2)两模态时间系数的主振荡周期不同,与ENSO循环的位相关系也不同。研究发现,当两模态呈正(负)位相分布时,贝加尔湖南侧(South to Lake Baikal,SLB)容易发生持续的高压(低压)异常环流。3)两模态与SLB异常环流的联系途径不同。第一模态正位相对应热带中东太平洋大范围暖海温引起的二极型Walker环流异常,SLB异常高压不仅能通过东亚沿岸北风和南海低槽的作用促进第一模态的前期发展,还对其后期维持起重要作用。负位相时,情况相反。该环流系统既与热带中东太平洋大范围垂直运动有关,还与邻近的中国东南沿海低层异常辐合有关;第二模态则对应热带西太平洋及东印度洋为主、大西洋为辅的暖海温引起的热带四极型Walker环流异常。此时热带西太平洋到东印度洋局地偏强的经圈Hadley环流可能是SLB异常环流维持的主要原因。     

Sensitivity of tropical Atlantic climate to mixing in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model

The sensitivity of tropical Atlantic climate to upper ocean mixing is investigated using an ocean-only model and a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. The upper ocean thermal structure and associated atmospheric circulation prove to be strongly related to the strength of upper ocean mixing. Using the heat balance in the mixed layer it is shown that an excessively cold equatorial cold tongue can be attributed to entrainment flux at the base of the oceanic mixed layer, that is too large. Enhanced entrainment efficiency acts to deepen the mixed layer and causes strong reduction in the upper ocean divergence in the central equatorial Atlantic. As a result, the simulated sea surface temperature, thermocline structure, and upwelling velocities are close to the observed estimates. In the coupled model, the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) reduces when the entrainment efficiency in the oceanic mixed layer is enhanced. The precipitation rates decrease in the equatorial region and increase along 10°N, resulting in a more realistic Atlantic Marine ITCZ. The reduced meridional surface temperature gradient in the eastern tropical Atlantic prohibits the development of convective precipitation in the southeastern part of the tropical Atlantic. Also, the simulation of tropical Atlantic variability as expressed in the meridional gradient mode and the eastern cold tongue mode improves when the entrainment efficiency is enhanced.     

西北太平洋区域纬向风垂直切变的气候特征研究

西北太平洋区域纬向风垂直切变的变化是影响西北太平洋热带气旋生成和发展的一个重要的动力因子,弱的纬向风切变有利于热带气旋的发生、发展。文中将西北太平洋区域纬向风垂直切变幅度(MWS)定义为850与200 hPa的纬向风之差的绝对值,以研究MWS的气候特征。结果表明,西北太平洋区域的MWS有两个主要空间模态,第1空间模态表现为在15°N以南的热带西太平洋存在MWS东西向变化相反的两个区域,20°N附近的热带西太平洋MWS的变化与其以北海区的MWS的变化相反。第2空间模态表现为在热带太平洋140°E东、西的变化相反。研究了两个模态相关的大气环流特征,发现去掉强ENSO信号后,第1模态不但与低纬度大气环流有关,而且还与南、北半球中高纬度的大气环流有关,第2模态主要与热带西太平洋和北太平洋局地大气环流有关。另外,第1模态的时间系数与赤道东太平洋海温、西北太平洋台风生成频次有着密切联系;第2模态时间系数与西北太平洋台风活动频次联系密切。     

Characteristics of summertime daily rainfall variability over South America and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone

Summary ?This paper presents an objective analysis of the structure of daily rainfall variability over the South American/South Atlantic region (15°–60° W and 0°–40° S) during individual austral summer months of November to March. From EOF analysis of satellite derived daily rainfall we find that the leading mode of variability is represented by a highly coherent meridional dipole structure, organised into 2 extensive bands, oriented northwest to southeast across the continent and Atlantic Ocean. We argue that this dipole structure represents variability in the meridional position of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). During early and later summer, in the positive (negative) phase of the dipole, enhanced (suppressed) rainfall over eastern tropical Brazil links with that over the subtropical and extra-tropical Atlantic and is associated with suppressed (enhanced) rainfall over the sub-tropical plains and adjacent Atlantic Ocean. This structure is indicative of interaction between the tropical, subtropical and temperate zones. Composite fields from NCEP reanalysis products (associated with the major positive and negative events) show that in early and late summer the position of the SACZ is associated with variability in: (a) the midlatitude wave structure, (b) the position of the continental low, and (c) the zonal position of the South Atlantic Subtropical High. Harmonic analysis of the 200 hPa geopotential anomaly structure in the midlatitudes indicates that reversals in the rainfall dipole structure are associated primarily with variability in zonal wave 4. There is evidence of a wave train extending throughout the midlatitudes from the western Pacific into the SACZ region. During positive (negative) events the largest anomalous moisture advection occurs within westerlies (easterlies) primarily from Amazonia (the South Atlantic). In both phases a convergent poleward flow results along the leading edge of the low-level trough extending from the tropics into temperate latitudes. High summer events differ from those in early and late summer in that the rainfall dipole is primarily associated with variability in the phase of zonal wave 3, and that tropical-temperate link is not clearly evident in positive events. Received May 31, 2001; revised October 17, 2001; accepted June 13, 2002     

Mechanisms of tropical Pacific interannual-to-decadal variability in the ARPEGE/ORCA global coupled model

Spatial and temporal structures of interannual-to-decadal variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean are investigated using results from a global atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model. The model produces quite realistic mean state characteristics, despite a sea surface temperature cold bias and a thermocline that is shallower than observations in the western Pacific. The periodicity and spatial patterns of the modelled El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) compare well with those observed over the last 100 years, although the quasi-biennial timescale is dominant. Lag-regression analysis between the mean zonal wind stress and the 20°C isotherm depth suggests that the recently proposed recharge-oscillator paradigm is operating in the model. Decadal thermocline variability is characterized by enhanced variance over the western tropical South Pacific (~7°S). The associated subsurface temperature variability is primarily due to adiabatic displacements of the thermocline as a whole, arising from Ekman pumping anomalies located in the central Pacific, south of the equator. Related wind anomalies appear to be caused by SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This quasi-decadal variability has a timescale between 8 years and 20 years. The relationship between this decadal tropical mode and the low-frequency modulation of ENSO variance is also discussed. Results question the commonly accepted hypothesis that the low-frequency modulation of ENSO is due to decadal changes of the mean state characteristics.     

Factors that affect the amplitude of El Nino in global coupled climate models

Historically, El Nino-like events simulated in global coupled climate models have had reduced amplitude compared to observations. Here, El Nino-like phenomena are compared in ten sensitivity experiments using two recent global coupled models. These models have various combinations of horizontal and vertical ocean resolution, ocean physics, and atmospheric model resolution. It is demonstrated that the lower the value of the ocean background vertical diffusivity, the greater the amplitude of El Nino variability which is related primarily to a sharper equatorial thermocline. Among models with low background vertical diffusivity, stronger equatorial zonal wind stress is associated with relatively higher amplitude El Nino variability along with more realistic east–west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient along the equator. The SST seasonal cycle in the eastern tropical Pacific has too much of a semiannual component with a double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in all experiments, and thus does not affect, nor is it affected by, the amplitude of El Nino variability. Systematic errors affecting the spatial variability of El Nino in the experiments are characterized by the eastern equatorial Pacific cold tongue regime extending too far westward into the warm pool. The time scales of interannual variability (as represented by time series of Nino3 SSTs) show significant power in the 3–4 year ENSO band and 2–2.5 year tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) band in the model experiments. The TBO periods in the models agree well with the observations, while the ENSO periods are near the short end of the range of 3–6 years observed during the period 1950–94. The close association between interannual variability of equatorial eastern Pacific SSTs and large-scale SST patterns is represented by significant correlations between Nino3 time series and the PC time series of the first EOFs of near-global SSTs in the models and observations. Received: 17 April 2000 / Accepted: 17 August 2000     

North African climate variability. Part 2: Tropical circulation systems

Summary Tropical North African climate variability is investigated using a Sahel rainfall index and streamflow of the Nile River in the 20^th century. The mechanisms that govern tropical North Africa climate are diagnosed from NCEP reanalysis data in the period 1958–1998: spatially – using composite and correlation analysis, and temporally – using wavelet co-spectral analysis. The Sahelian climate is characterised by a decadal rhythm, whilst the mountainous eastern and equatorial regions exhibit interannual cycles. ENSO-modulated zonal circulations over the Atlantic/Pacific sector are important for decadal variations, and create a climatic polarity between South America and tropical North Africa as revealed through upper-level velocity potential and convection patterns. A more localised N–S shift in convection between the Sahel and Guinea coast is associated with the African Easterly Jet.     

On the phase propagation and relationship of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific climate system

—Upper ocean thermal data and surface marine observations are used to describe the three-dimensional, basinwide co-evolution of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific climate system. The phase propagation behavior differs greatly from atmosphere to ocean, and from equatorial to off-equatorial and from sea surface to subsurface depths in the ocean. Variations in surface zonal winds and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exhibit a standing pattern without obvious zonal phase propagation. A nonequilibrium ocean response at subsurface depths is evident, characterized by coherent zonal and meridional propagating anomalies around the tropical North Pacific: eastward on the equator but westward off the equator. Depending on geographic location, there are clear phase relations among various anomaly fields. Surface zonal winds and SSTs in the equatorial region fluctuate approximately in-phase in time, but have phase differences in space. Along the equator, zonal mean thermocline depth (or heat content) anomalies are in nonequilibrium with the zonal wind stress forcing. Variations in SSTs are not in equilibrium either with subsurface thermocline changes in the central and western equatorial Pacific, with the former lagging the latter and displaced to the east. Due to its phase relations to SST and winds, the basinwide temperature anomaly evolution at thermocline depths on an interannual time scale may determine the slow physics of ENSO, and play a central role in initiating and terminating coupled air-sea interaction. This observed basinwide phase propagation of subsurface anomaly patterns can be understood partially as water discharge processes from the western Pacific to the east and further to high latitudes, and partially by the modified delayed oscillator physics. Received: 17 January 1997 / Accepted: 10 March 1998     

North African climate variability. Part 3: Resource prediction

Summary Tropical north Africa depends on rain-fed agriculture as the main economic driver. The variability of climate-sensitive resources is investigated with a goal to develop statistical long-lead prediction models with reasonable skill. Climate data from NCEP is analysed in conjunction with agricultural and economic production in various sectors, in addition to the traditional climatic indices: temperature and rainfall. Key predictors for statistical models include the lower-level zonal wind over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. These exhibit a ‘memory’ that is consistent with sea surface temperatures (SST) through equatorial upwelling dynamics. Kinematic predictors outperform SST in hindcast fit by an average 33% with respect to various tropical north African resource indices. A multi-decadal oscillation induces long-term trends in rainfall that contribute to apparently skilful forecasts based on the interaction of Pacific ENSO and the Atlantic zonal overturning circulation. The skill of statistical forecasts is lower when the drying trend is removed.     

利用EOF相空间分析东亚梅雨旱涝长期过程的初步研究

利用非线性动力学中的相空间概念,分析了梅雨旱涝3～5年循环的长期过程.对全球热带850hPa的纬向风场距平所作的EOF,第1特征向量显示了Walker环流异常在赤道球圈上的分布;第2特征向量主要显示热带-副热带之间的环流异常的经向分布.在第1时间系数和第2时间系数所定义的2维相空间中,由相轨线分析,得到梅雨涝年主要集中于第2象限,而旱年则相对多在第4象限.说明梅雨旱涝年际变异的主导模态和热带大气环流的主要特征向量有着密切的关联.它们显示了以3～5年时间尺度的大气环流演变的长期特征性过程.     

Dominant Modes of Interannual Variability in Atmospheric Water Vapor Content over East Asia during Winter and Their Associated Mechanisms

Atmospheric water vapor content(WVC) is a critical factor for East Asian winter precipitation. This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability in WVC over East Asia during winter and their underlying mechanisms.Based on the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) method, the leading mode(EOF1, R~2 = 28.9%) of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a meridional dipole pattern characterized by opposite WVC anomalies over northeastern China and eastern China; the second mode(EOF2, R~2 = 24.3%) of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a monopole pattern characterized by consistent WVC anomalies over eastern China. EOF1 is mainly modulated by two anomalous zonal water vapor transport(WVT) branches over northeastern China and eastern China, which are associated with an anomalous atmospheric wave train over Eurasia affected by sea ice cover in the Kara Sea-Barents Sea(SIC-KSBS) area in the preceding October-November(ON). EOF2 is mainly modulated by an anomalous westerly WVT branch over eastern China, which is associated with a circumglobal atmospheric zonal wave train in the Northern Hemisphere. This circumglobal zonal wave train is modulated by concurrent central and eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. The SIC-KSBS anomalies in ON and the concurrent SST anomalies over tropical Pacific may partially account for the interannual variability of EOF1 and EOF2 winter WVC, and thus may provide a theoretical basis for improving the prediction of winter climate over East Asia.     

我国西南地区干湿季降水的主模态分析

利用我国西南地区26个台站降水资料,通过经验正交函数（EOF）分解的方法,分析了1980～2009年该地区干季（10～4月）和湿季（5～9月）降水的主模态。我国西南地区干季降水的时空变化存在两种主模态,它们分别可以解释总方差的22.4%和15.6%。第1主模态为全区一致型,具有准两年周期振荡的年际变化特征;第2主模态为东南—西北反向型,从20世纪90年代中期至21世纪初呈现2～3年的变化周期。我国西南地区湿季降水的时空变化存在三种主模态,它们分别可以解释总方差的17.1%,13.8%和11.1%。第1主模态为全区一致型,20世纪90年代初期具有较强的2～4年周期;第2主模态为经向偶极子型分布,并具有显著的4年周期;第3主模态为纬向偶极子型分布,具有2～4年的年际变化信号。进一步利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的海表面温度（SST）资料,通过合成分析和回归分析的方法探讨了与干湿季降水各主模态对应的大尺度大气环流和海温状况。我国西南地区干季降水第1主模态与北极涛动（AO）有明显的正相关关系,对应的大气环流和海温状况表现为高纬北冰洋与中纬度地区上空高度场的反向异常分布,北大西洋和北太平洋海温低纬与中高纬的偶极子型异常分布;第2主模态与中高纬欧亚大陆上空高度场经向偶极子型异常分布有关,中纬度北太平洋的海温异常与该模态具有紧密的联系。我国西南地区湿季降水第1主模态与北大西洋涛动（NAO）显著负相关,对应的大气环流和海温状况表现为北大西洋上,高纬度与中纬度地区上空高度场的偶极子型异常分布,海温从低纬到中高纬的三极子型异常分布;第2主模态受欧亚大陆上空高度场经向三极子型异常分布影响,并与北太平洋海温异常的一致型分布有关;第3主模态可能与El Ni?o Modoki有关,同时受到南亚高压的影响,赤道太平洋海温的纬向三极子型异常分布对该模态具有一定的潜在预报意义。     

IMPACTS OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC COUPLED PROCESS ON THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN

The basic features of climatology and interannual variations of tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans were analyzed using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM), which was constituted with an intermediate 2.5-layer ocean model and atmosphere model ECHAM4. The CGCM well captures the spatial and temporal structure of the Pacific El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the variability features in the tropical Indian Ocean. The influence of Pacific air-sea coupled process on the Indian Ocean variability was investigated carefully by conducting numerical experiments. Results show that the occurrence frequency of positive/negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event will decrease/increase with the presence/absence of the coupled process in the Pacific Ocean. Further analysis demonstrated that the air-sea coupled process in the Pacific Ocean affects the IOD variability mainly by influencing the zonal gradient of thermocline via modulating the background sea surface wind.     

Impact of the equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature on the tropical Pacific in a CGCM

Many coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) suffer from serious model bias in the zonal gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Atlantic. The bias of the equatorial Atlantic SST (EASST) may affect the interannual variability of the equatorial Atlantic, which in turn may influence the state of the tropical Pacific. In this paper we investigate the impact of the bias and the interannual variability of the EASST on the tropical Pacific in a CGCM. To determine the impact of the interannual variability of the EASST on the tropical Pacific, we compare a run in a fully coupled mode (CTL run) and a run in which the EASST is nudged toward the climatological monthly mean of the SST in the CTL run, but full air-sea coupling is allowed elsewhere (AT_m run). We find that, when the interannual variability of the EASST is excluded, the thermocline depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific is deepened, and the amplitude of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation is reduced by 30 % compared to the CTL run. The impact of the bias of the EASST on the tropical Pacific is investigated by comparing the AT_m run and a run in which the EASST is nudged toward the observed climatological monthly mean SST (AT_o run). It is found that, when the bias of the EASST is removed (i.e. AT_o run), the Gill–Matsuno type response to the warm SST anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic induces low-level cyclonic anomalies in the eastern South Pacific, which leads to a deeper thermocline and colder SST in the South Pacific as compared to AT_m. The colder SST in the South Pacific reduces the precipitation along the South Pacific convergence zone. Our results of the model experiments demonstrate the importance of the EASST to the tropical Pacific climate.     

Tropical Pacific Decadal Oscillation in Subsurface Ocean Temperature

This study utilizes a new monthly-assimilated sea temperature and analyzes trend and decadal oscillations in tropical Pacific 100-200 m subsurface ocean temperature (SOT) from 1945 to 2005 on the basis of the harmonic analysis and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) methods. Significant cooling trends in the SOT in the tropical western Pacific were found over this 60-year period. The first EOF of the SOT in tropical Pacific displays an ENSO-like zonal dipole pattern on decadal time scale, and we considered this pattern in subsurface ocean temperature the tropical Pacific decadal oscillation (TPDO). Our analysis suggests that TPDO is closely correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) in the surface sea temperature (SST). The correlation coefficient between the indices of TPDO and PDO is +0.81 and reaches a maximum of +0.84 when TPDO lags behind PDO by 2 months. Therefore, a change of TPDO is likely related to the variation of PDO. The long-term change in TPDO best explains decadal warming in the tropical eastern Pacific SST and implies potential impact on the weakening of East Asian summer monsoons after the late 1970s.     

高低层纬向风切变的年际变率及气候学意义

用1959～1998共40年全球格点风场资料计算了200 hPa与850 hPa的纬向风速差, 即对流层纬向风切变(简称TZWS),并在此基础上得到其距平值。为了全面考察对流层中环流异常的年际变率特征, 根据TZWS的标准差分布, 文中选出了7个TZWS标准差数值大于5 m/s的代表性区域。这7个区域分别位于赤道中太平洋、赤道东太平洋、北太平洋亚热带地区、南太平洋亚热带地区、赤道大西洋、亚洲西南部以及东北部。前5个分别位于赤道、亚热带太平洋和大西洋的区域TZWS指数, 其年际变率与ENSO循环有密切联系, 反映了热带海洋温度异常对低纬度地区对流层环流的影响; 后2个区域的TZWS指数反映的是亚洲西南部和东北部的气候统变率, 在年际时间尺度上与ENSO循环有着明显的区别。通过对全球陆地降水和温度场的分析, 比较了热带、副热带的TZWS指数以及北极涛动指数的异同, 发现后2个区域TZWS指数能很好且能独立反映出北半球中高纬度地区陆地降水及陆地温度的异常模态。     

Surface currents and equatorial thermocline in a coupled upper ocean-atmosphere GCM

The Oregon State University coupled upper ocean-atmosphere GCM is evaluated in terms of the simulated winds, ocean currents and thermocline depth variations. Although the zonal wind velocities in the model are underestimated by a factor of about three and the zonal current velocities are underestimated by a factor of about five, the model is seen to qualitatively simulate the major features of the gyral scale currents, and the phases of the seasonal variation of the principal equatorial currents are in reasonable agreement with observations. The simulated tropical currents are dominated by Ekman transport and the eastern boundary currents do not penetrate far enough equatorward, while the western boundary currents do not penetrate far enough poleward. The subtropical trade wind belt and the mid-latitude westerlies are displaced equatorward of observations; hence, the mid-latitude eastward currents, principally the Kuroshio-North Pacific Drift and the Gulf Stream-North Atlantic Current are displaced equatorward. In spite of these shortcomings the surface current simulation of this two-layer upper ocean model is comparable with that of other ocean GCMs of coarse resolution. The coupled model successfully simulates the deepening of the thermocline westward across Pacific as a consequence of the prevailing Walker circulation. The region of most intense simulated surface forcing is located in the western Pacific due to a southwestward displacement of the northeast trade winds relative to observations; hence the equatorial Pacific is dominated by eastward propagation of thermocline depth variations. The excessively strong Ekman divergence and upwelling in the western Pacific cools the local warm pool, while incorrectly simulated westerlies in the eastern Pacific suppress upwelling and inhibit cooling from below. These features reduce the simulated trans-Pacific sea-surface temperature gradient, weakening the Walker circulation and the anomalies associated with the simulated Southern Oscillation. Offprint requests to: KR Sperber