THE IMPACT OF PRECEDING ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AND SST VARIATION ON FLOOD SEASON RAINFALL IN YUNNAN

Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and scale range of two significant areas were obtained by analyzing the relationship among summer rainfall in Yunnan province, height field and SST field (40°S – 40°N, 30 °E – 70°W) across the North Hemisphere at 200 hPa, 500 hPa and 850 hPa for Jan. to May and correlation, and field wave structure. Remote key regions among summer rainfall in Yunnan province, height field and SST field (40°S – 40°N, 30°E – 70°W) across the North Hemisphere at 200 hPa, 500 hPa and 850 hPa were studied through further analyzing of the circulation system and its climate / weather significance. The result shows that the forecast has dependable physical basis when height and SST fields were viewed as predictors and physical models of impacts on rainy season precipitation in Yunnan are preliminarily concluded.     

东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流

文中从夏季东亚热带、副热带环流系统特点出发 ,定义了能较好表征东亚夏季风环流年际变化的特征指数 ,并分析了东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流及夏季中国东部降水的关系。文中定义的东亚夏季风指数既反映了夏季东亚大气环流风场的变化特征 ,也较好地反映了夏季中国东部降水的年际变化特征。此外 ,还探讨了东亚夏季风指数变化的先兆信号     

太平洋海温对冬季阿留申低压的影响

众多的研究表明,海温异常对大气环流具有一定的影响作用。鉴于阿留申低压与我国乃至东亚地区天气气候的密切关系,本文重点分析了太平洋海温对冬季阿留申低压的影响问题,对阿留申低压与500 hPa环流的联系在此也作了简单的讨论。为便于本文之研究,根据1951—1986年冬季各月海平面气压场资料,定义了冬季阿留申低压强度指数。在月平均海平面气压图上,60°N以南的太平洋区域,对1010 hPa范围内的每个网格点,取1009 hPa为1,1008 hPa为2,1007 hPa为3……余类推,用其累加值作为月阿留申低压强度指数。冬季强度指数为12月至翌年2月各月强度指数和的平均。     

Variations of 500 hPa flow patterns over Iranand surrounding areas and their relationship with the climate of Iran

Summary In order to explore the spatial and temporal variations of 500 hPa flow patterns and their relationship with the climate of Iran, monthly mean geopotential heights for the region 0° E to 70° E and 20° N to 50° N, at 5 degree resolution, were analysed. The study period covered the winter months October to March during the period 1961–90. The monthly height of the 500 hPa level was averaged along each meridian from 25° N to 45° N. The height of the mean monthly pressure pattern was mapped against the study years. The results showed that the characteristics of the 500 hPa flow pattern varied over monthly and annual time scales. Principal Component Analysis, with S-mode and Varimax rotation, was also used to reduce the gridded data to 5 (6 in October) significant factors. The factor scores for each month were then correlated with monthly Z-scores of precipitation and temperature anomalies over Iran. The results showed that troughs and ridges located close to Iran had more influence on the climate of Iran. Two troughs were identified and named the Caspian and Syrian troughs. Received April 12, 2001 Revised July 24, 2001     

RESEARCH ON INTERANNUAL CHANGE ABOUT TELECONNECTION OF GENERAL CIRCULATION IN SUMMER DURING 1980s OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE

In the paper the 5°×10°latitude-longitude grid point data of daily 500 hPa geopotential height over the NorthernHemisphere(NH)in summer(June—August)during 1980s are used.The base point(20°N,120°E)is selected to calcu-late point correlation between the base point and other grid points.We find that the summer heat source anomaly of thetropical western Pacific causes anomaly of summer general circulation over NH and teleconnection of general circula-tion similar to PNA pattern forms from East Asia to North America.The teleconnections show great interannualchanges.     

江西地区冬季气温异常与北半球500hPa高度场的关系

利用1960—2011年江西省81个台站月平均气温观测资料和NCEP/NCAR北半球逐月500 hPa高度场再分析资料,分析了江西地区冬季(当年12月至次年2月)气温异常的时空特征、冷暖典型年500 hPa高度距平场特征以及气温异常与北半球500 hPa高度场的相关性,并运用奇异值分解(SVD)方法探讨了北半球500 hPa高度场异常与江西地区冬季气温异常之间的耦合关系。结果表明:(1)江西地区省冬季气温以全区一致的变化为主;(2)影响江西地区冬季气温异常的500 hPa高度场关键区为北大西洋(20.0°—42.5°N,10°—70°W)和欧亚地区(25.0°—72.5°N,40°—150°E),影响时段分别为当年7月(前期)和当年冬季(同期);(3)前期7月北大西洋关键区500 hPa高度场与江西地区冬季气温呈显著的正相关关系,其中最显著的区域为赣北地区;冬季欧亚大陆关键区500 hPa高度场与江西地区冬季气温也呈显著的相关关系,其中最显著的区域为赣北、赣中地区。     

基于客观判识的青藏高原横切变线结构及演变特征合成研究

利用1981—2016年6—8月每天4次,分辨率为1°×1°的ERA-Interim再分析资料,基于纬向风的经向切变、纬向风速0线和相对涡度3个参数,在计算机客观自动判识青藏高原横切变线（简称高原横切变线）基础上,选取位于33°—35°N的高原横切变线个例13个,采用合成分析技术,研究了高原横切变线结构及演变特征。表明高原横切变线位于青藏高原主体80°—100°E范围内,在500 hPa呈东西走向、水平尺度近2000 km,垂直方向在高原上空可伸展至480 hPa、厚度可达近2 km。高原横切变线出现的环流背景是:500 hPa高纬度两槽两脊,青藏高原两侧分别为带状分布的西太平洋副热带高压（西太副高）和伊朗高压。在动力场上,高原横切变线走向与500 hPa正涡度带轴线走向一致,切变线附近为带状的涡度正值区和上升运动区,对应于无辐散带,辐散/辐合带分布在高原横切变线北/南侧;高原横切变线附近正涡度带垂直可伸展到350 hPa,上升运动伸展至200 hPa,但高原横切变线仅至480 hPa左右,为浅薄的斜压性天气系统,呈现随高度升高向北倾斜的特征。在水汽热力场上,高原横切变线是水汽汇聚带;高原横切变线附近南侧的600—500 hPa存在高假相当位温中心,具有非常明显的高温、高湿特征。高原横切变线从初始产生到发展强盛再减弱的演变过程中,其生命期近4 d,伴随西太副高西移过程,随着高原横切变线附近正涡度带范围增大、强度增强,高原横切变线发展,干冷空气的侵入导致高原横切变线强度减弱甚至消亡。      

夏季长江淮河流域异常降水事件环流差异及机理研究

长江、淮河同处东亚中纬度,天气过程的大尺度环流背景相似,大量相关研究基本是把江淮流域天气气候事件作为一个整体研究,然而对长江、淮河流域夏季降水的时空变化进行分析发现,长江、淮河流域夏季异常降水事件有各自不同的年际、年代际变化特征,但环流差异及成因并不十分清楚。本文根据中国台站降水资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,利用物理量诊断和现代统计学等方法,重点分析长江、淮河流域梅雨期降水异常事件发生时南北半球大气环流内部动力过程的差异及成因。研究指出:长江（淮河）流域梅雨期降水异常偏多年500 hPa位势高度场亚洲中高纬度环流呈现为南北向（东西向）的波列与东亚中高纬鄂霍茨克海阻塞频次增多（减少）以及200 hPa高度场上东亚副热带高空西风急流强度加强（减弱）、稳定（移动）有关;长江（淮河）流域梅雨期降水异常偏多年主要水汽来源与南半球澳大利亚高压、马斯克林高压位置偏东（西）造成西太平洋150°E～180°（阿拉伯海50°E～60°E）地区越赤道气流加强有关。长江（淮河）流域梅雨期异常降水事件大气环流内部动力过程最显著的差异表现为:东亚副热带高空西风急流加强（减弱）以及南半球澳大利亚高压、马斯克林高压位置偏东（西）。     

The transport of momentum, sensible heat, potential energy and moisture over the western Himalayas during the winter season

Summary The western Himalayas receive higher precipitation than the eastern Himalayas during the winter season (December–March). This differential pattern of winter precipitation over the Himalayas can be attributed to topography and to a higher frequency of disturbances over the western Himalayas, which result in variations in the circulation features. These circulation features, in turn, result in variations in the meridional transport of heat, momentum, potential energy, and moisture across the Himalayas due to mean and eddy motion. Significant meridional transport due to mean motion takes place in the upper troposphere at 300 hPa and 200 hPa. Transport east of 100° E dominates the transport over the western Himalayas. The eddy transport of heat, momentum, and potential energy is considerably smaller than that due to mean motion. Eddy transport magnitudes are smaller up to 500 hPa and increase rapidly aloft to 300 hPa and 200 hPa. Eddy transport over the western Himalayas is greater than over the eastern Himalayas.     

6月西太平洋副高脊线的年际变化及其对华南降水的影响

用１９５１－１９９１年６月份５００ｈＰａ位势高度资料取得了西太平洋副热带高压脊线位置资料序列，分析了脊线位置的变化。分析结果发现副高脊线位置与５００ｈＰａ位势高度场、海面温度等关系密切。脊线位置具有显著的３２年、５．３年、３．２年和２．３年振荡周期。６月份副高脊线偏北（南）华南降水偏少（多）。     

贵州省冬季雨凇灾害预测模型的初构

该研究利用1961—2015年贵州省逐日雨凇观测资料,NCEP/NCAR海平面气压场和500 h Pa高度场逐月再分析资料,以及NOAA ERSSTV4逐月海表温度资料,初步构建了贵州省冬季雨凇灾害预测模型。模型主要量化为以下指标:雨凇灾害偏强/弱时,对应500 h Pa位势高度异常场正/负(50~70°N、40~80°E)和负/正(20~40°N、60~100°E),对应海平面气压异常场正/负(45~65°N、40~80°E),对应前期秋季北大西洋关键区(25~35°N,60~40°W)的海表温度异常为负/正异常。且强雨凇年时,该模型的可信度更高。利用该模型,本研究展开了对2016年冬季雨凇强度的试报,试报结果为强度偏弱,与实况场吻合,表明该模型有一定的参考价值。     

月动力延伸预报产品的评估和解释应用

该文用3种客观评分方法对国家气候中心的月动力延伸预报结果（500 hPa位势高度场）进行了全面评估。结果表明,延伸预报环流的旬和月平均场预报准确率明显高于持续性预报,有一定的预报技巧和业务参考价值,但仍未达到可用于实际业务预报的技巧。对形势预报进一步分析发现,500 hPa的部分环流特征量模拟效果好,其预报技巧高于整个形势场的预报。根据已有的经验和研究成果,这些环流特征量和要素预报有较好的相关,可以直接在业务中应用。该方法为动力产品的解释应用提供了又一条途径。     

Zonal circulation indices, 500 hPa April ridge position along 75° E and Indian summer monsoon rainfall: Statistical relationships

Summary This paper presents an examination of the statistical relationship between summer monsoon rainfall over all India, and two sub-regions (north west India and peninsular India) and the indices of mid-latitude (35° to 70° N) zonal circulation at 500 hPa level, over different sectors of the hemisphere, based on 19 years (1971–1989) data. The results indicate that summer monsoon rainfall (June–September) over India shows; (i) a significant and direct relationship with the strength of the zonal circulation index during concurrent July over the sector 90° E to 160° E. (ii) a significant inverse relationship with the strength of the zonal index during the previous April over the sector 160° E to 45° W and a similar relationship with the whole northern hemisphere and (iii) a significant and direct relationship with the frequency of the zonal index during the previous January over the sector 45° W to 90° E.Significant relationships are also observed between the zonal circulation indices of the above mentioned months and sectors with the 500 hPa ridge location in April at 75° E over India.With 4 Figures     

Statistical Downscaling for Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in the Asia-Pacific Region Using Geopotential Height Field

The 21-yr ensemble predictions of model precipitation and circulation in the East Asian and western North Pacific （Asia-Pacific） summer monsoon region （0°-50°N, 100° 150°E） were evaluated in nine different AGCM, used in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center （APCC） multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction system. The analysis indicates that the precipitation anomaly patterns of model ensemble predictions are substantially different from the observed counterparts in this region, but the summer monsoon circulations are reasonably predicted. For example, all models can well produce the interannual variability of the western North Pacific monsoon index （WNPMI） defined by 850 hPa winds, but they failed to predict the relationship between WNPMI and precipitation anomalies. The interannual variability of the 500 hPa geopotential height （GPH） can be well predicted by the models in contrast to precipitation anomalies. On the basis of such model performances and the relationship between the interannual variations of 500 hPa GPH and precipitation anomalies, we developed a statistical scheme used to downscale the summer monsoon precipitation anomaly on the basis of EOF and singular value decomposition （SVD）. In this scheme, the three leading EOF modes of 500 hPa GPH anomaly fields predicted by the models are firstly corrected by the linear regression between the principal components in each model and observation, respectively. Then, the corrected model GPH is chosen as the predictor to downscale the precipitation anomaly field, which is assembled by the forecasted expansion coefficients of model 500 hPa GPH and the three leading SVD modes of observed precipitation anomaly corresponding to the prediction of model 500 hPa GPH during a 19-year training period. The cross-validated forecasts suggest that this downscaling scheme may have a potential to improve the forecast skill of the precipitation anomaly in the South China Sea, western North Pacific and the East Asia Pacific regions, wh     

冬季500hPa不同纬度角动量谱的中期振荡及其凝聚的特征

角动量输送是维持、产生大气环流变化的一个重要物理量。把角动量的涡动输送写成谱函数形式,便于对不同波长的波动角动量输送进行分析研究。文献[1]用3个冬半年资料研究中纬度情况。为了揭露不同纬度角动量谱的中期振荡及其相互关系,本文利用14年冬季资料进行分析,并对其中若干异常梅雨年前冬的情况进行对比讨论。     

江南春雨雨日的变化及其与欧亚大陆积雪的联系

利用中国气象局提供的1960—2019年江南区站点观测逐日降水数据,分析了江南春雨不同持续时长雨日的变化及其与欧亚大陆积雪的联系。结果表明,江南春雨以持续5 d及以上的长持续降水为主,但降水日数下降趋势明显,导致长持续降水减少。利用奇异值分解法(Singular Value Decomposition,SVD)发现,欧亚大陆3—5月积雪覆盖率与江南春雨雨日数有显著正相关关系。将(48°~59°N,90°~110°E)区域平均积雪覆盖率定义为积雪覆盖指数,通过指数与同期大气环流的回归分析发现,当积雪偏少时,我国中北部及西伯利亚地区500 hPa位势高度正异常,在江南区850 hPa风场和水汽通量场西南向负异常,导致江南春雨雨日数减少。合成分析进一步验证了积雪偏少会在江南区形成异常东北风抑制水汽输送至江南地区,不利于降水发生。     

基于T213集合预报的延伸期产品释用方法及初步试验

基于T213集合预报系统2008年1月中国及附近区域500 hPa高度和850 hPa温度的1~15 d预报资料,构建延伸期产品释用方法,通过对逐日11~15 d预报资料做集合平均和后向衰减权重系数滑动平均,进而得到延伸期(11~15 d)候平均和候距平预报,并对预报效果进行检验,结果表明:对11~15 d预报场做集合平均和后向衰减权重系数滑动平均均能降低预报误差,改善整体预报效果。由此得到的500 hPa高度场和850 hPa温度场11~1 5 d候平均预报误差与逐日控制预报第5d的水平相当,候距平相关系数均接近0.6,整体而言效果较好,具备一定的应用价值。500 hPa高度场和850 hPa温度场11~15 d候距平预报在中国大陆地区位相准确率均较高,东南沿海和东北部分地区稍差,且850 hPa温度场的位相准确率整体高于500 hPa高度场。候距平预报对延伸期(11~15 d)的大范围持续性异常距平具有较强的捕捉能力,对异常距平出现的范围和分布、强距平中心的位置的预报均较好,但强度整体偏弱。     

1979年7月热带地区的动能平衡

应用欧洲中期预报中心的FGGEⅢ-b个客观分析资料计算了1979年7月热带大气的动能平衡。热带环流系统的动能主要集中在定常涡旋部分。对流层下层,105°E和150°E为两半球间瞬变涡旋的通道。对流层上层,瞬变涡旋的通道和洋中槽相联系,位于150°E和30°W附近。 索马里急流是对流层下层制造动能的主要环流系统。对流层上层,南亚东风急流入口区制造动能,出口区破坏动能,其动能收支与中纬度西风急流相似。 非洲-阿拉伯海季风区和孟加拉湾—南海季风区的动能平衡很不相同。动能的垂直输送可能在季风环流中很重要。     

The Association Between Circulation Anomaliesin the Mid-Troposphere and Area Burnedby Wildland Fire in Canada

Summary  There is evidence that the area burned by wildland fire has increased in certain regions of Canada in recent decades. One cause for this increase is changes in the mid-tropospheric circulation at 500 hPa over northern North America. This study examines the physical links between anomalous mid-tropospheric circulation over various regions of Canada and wildland fire severity. Analysis of monthly and seasonal burned areas for the period 1953 to 1995 reveals a bimodal distribution with distinct low and extreme high burned area years. The high/low burned area years coincide with positive/negative 500 hPa height anomalies over north-western, western, west-central and east-central Canada. Total area burned and the 500 hPa height anomaly data are analyzed for statistical relationships using the Spearman rank correlation non-parametric measure. Results for the May to August fire season indicate statistically significant correlations between regional total area burned and clusters of anomalous 500 hPa geopotential height values immediately over, and immediately upstream of the affected region. For the north-western and west-central regions, significantly correlated clusters are found in the central Pacific as well, providing evidence of the influence of a teleconnection structure on the summer climate of western and north-western North America. Two sample comparison tests show statistically significant differences in both the means and variances of the fire data populations during negative and positive phases of mid-tropospheric flow, and the means of the height anomaly populations during extremely high and extremely low area burned seasons. Increases in regional total area burned are related to increases in mean 500 hPa heights, taken from the significantly correlated clusters of height values, between two successive periods 1953–74 and 1975–95. For Canada as a whole, the five lowest area burned seasons all occurred during the early period, while the five highest seasons occurred during the later period. The difference in the geopotential height fields between the two periods identifies an increase in 500 hPa heights over most of Canada with an amplification of the western Canada ridge and an eastward shifted Canadian Polar Trough (CPT). Received October 19, 1998     

春季川渝地区气温与500 hPa高度场的奇异值分解

应用奇异值分解(SVD)技术研究了北半球500hPa高度场与春季川渝地区气温场的关系。结果表明前期10月和同期春季500hPa高度场与川渝地区气温场具有密切的同步及非同步时空相关,其第一模态代表了两场间的主要耦合特征;当前期10月(150°～180°E,60°～70°N)范围500hPa高度场降低(升高),同期春季青藏高原、川渝地区到我国东部500hPa高度场升高(降低),相应川渝地区春季气温升高(降低);大气环流的异常演变,通过影响区域天气气候,是造成川渝地区春季冷暖异常及气候变冷的重要原因之一;而前期10月500hPa高度场变化可作为川渝地区春季气温变化的一种预测信号。