Prototyping an experimental early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia using satellite remote sensing and geospatial datasets

An early warning system has been developed to predict rainfall-induced shallow landslides over Java Island, Indonesia. The prototyped early warning system integrates three major components: (1) a susceptibility mapping and hotspot identification component based on a land surface geospatial database (topographical information, maps of soil properties, and local landslide inventory, etc.); (2) a satellite-based precipitation monitoring system () and a precipitation forecasting model (i.e., Weather Research Forecast); and (3) a physically based, rainfall-induced landslide prediction model SLIDE. The system utilizes the modified physical model to calculate a factor of safety that accounts for the contribution of rainfall infiltration and partial saturation to the shear strength of the soil in topographically complex terrains. In use, the land-surface “where” information will be integrated with the “when” rainfall triggers by the landslide prediction model to predict potential slope failures as a function of time and location. In this system, geomorphologic data are primarily based on 30-m Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data, digital elevation model (DEM), and 1-km soil maps. Precipitation forcing comes from both satellite-based, real-time National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model forecasts. The system’s prediction performance has been evaluated using a local landslide inventory, and results show that the system successfully predicted landslides in correspondence to the time of occurrence of the real landslide events. Integration of spatially distributed remote sensing precipitation products and in-situ datasets in this prototype system enables us to further develop a regional, early warning tool in the future for predicting rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia.     

A prototype system for space–time assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Italy

In the last decades, physically based distributed models turned out rather promising to achieve the space–time assessment of shallow landslides at large spatial scale. This technical note deals with the application of a physically based stability model named Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction (SLIP), which has been adopted by the Department of National Civil Protection of Italy as a prototype early warning system for rainfall-induced shallow landslides on national scale. The model is used as a main methodology to create space–time shallow landslide susceptibility maps based on a simple deterministic slope-stability approach, combined with high-resolution rainfall information and geographic information system-based geospatial datasets. The safety factor as an index to measure slope instability is modeled as function of topographic, geologic, geotechnical and hydrologic variables. Although the main aim of this work was to prove the operational viability of such model on a nationwide domain and some simplification are adopted at this stage, hind cast tests on some relevant case histories of shallow landslides occurred between October 2009 and October 2011 showed that the model has skill in representing both timing and location of those shallow landslides.     

Zoning for flowslide and debris flow in pyroclastic soils of Campania Region based on “infinite slope” analysis

Campania Region (Italy), one of the most densely populated areas in Europe, is probably the one with the highest risk of landslide. A large part of the region is covered by unsaturated cohesionless pyroclastic deposits subjected to rainfall-induced landslides. According to experience, these can display different features and magnitude. The most catastrophic landslides are liquefied debris flows which periodically occur on steep slopes, causing death and destruction in areas located downslope. Therefore, zoning of those areas which can be the source of liquefied debris flow is necessary. The paper reports some useful elements for zoning based on infinite slope analysis, accounting for the results of recent research on the mechanics of rainfall-induced landslides in pyroclastic soils.     

降雨型浅层滑坡危险性预测模型

通过分析SHALSTAB和TRIGRS等浅层滑坡物理确定性模型存在的问题,提出了基于降雨入渗动态守恒的瞬态降雨入渗模型,该模型考虑了初期降雨过程、降雨历程以及饱和非饱和入渗过程,证明了SHALSTAB模型是该模型的特殊形式,并克服了TRIGRS模型参数繁多及一维入渗路径的问题.将无限边坡模型、瞬态降雨入渗模型和GIS进行耦合,研发了可用于大范围降雨型浅层滑坡危险性预测的集成系统,根据边坡的地质条件、地形参数和降雨特征即可对降雨条件下浅层滑坡的危险性进行评估.     

Assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Phetchabun and Krabi provinces,Thailand

Shallow landslides are a common type of rainfall-induced landslide, and various methods are currently used to predict their occurrence on a regional scale. Physically based models, such as the shallow landslide instability prediction (SLIP) model, have many advantages because these models can assess the hazards of shallow landslides dynamically, based on physical stability equations that consider rainfall as a triggering factor. The main objective of this research is to test the SLIP model’s potential to predict shallow landslide hazards in Thailand. To achieve this goal, the SLIP model was applied to two massive landslide events in Thailand. The results predicted by the SLIP model for the two study areas are outlined, and the model prediction capabilities were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic plot. The Phetchabun results showed that the western part of the catchment had the lowest factor of safety (F _S) value, whereas the Krabi results showed that the slopes surrounding the peak of Khao Panom Mountain had the lowest F _S value, explaining the highest potentials for shallow landslides in each area. The SLIP model showed good performance: The global accuracies were 0.828 for the Phetchabun area and 0.824 for the Krabi area. The SLIP model predicted the daily time-varying percentage of unstable areas over the analyzed periods. The SLIP model simulated a negligible percentage of unstable areas over all considered periods, except for expected dates, suggesting that the prediction capability is reasonably accurate.     

Preliminary investigation of some large landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan Province, China

The M _s 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake or “Great Sichuan Earthquake” occurred at 14:28 p.m. local time on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province, China. Damage by earthquake-induced landslides was an important part of the total earthquake damage. This report presents preliminary observations on the Hongyan Resort slide located southwest of the main epicenter, shallow mountain surface failures in Xuankou village of Yingxiu Town, the Jiufengchun slide near Longmenshan Town, the Hongsong Hydro-power Station slide near Hongbai Town, the Xiaojiaqiao slide in Chaping Town, two landslides in Beichuan County-town which destroyed a large part of the town, and the Donghekou and Shibangou slides in Qingchuan County which formed the second biggest landslide lake formed in this earthquake. The influences of seismic, topographic, geologic, and hydro-geologic conditions are discussed.     

Environmental conservation and the production of new territories: the example of French départements

Very important initiatives have been taken and policies have been adopted in the European Union to protect areas of great importance for threatened species and habitats. Protected areas differ broadly in terms of category, natural conditions and administrative organisation, from international initiative such as Biosphere Reserves, European ones with Natura 2000 network until the institution of national and regional protected areas. In France, the administrative subdivisions known as “départements” were created with the French Revolution in the end of the eighteenth century; in 1985 an original and autonomous procedure to establish special protected areas, called “Sensitive Natural Spaces” (SNS) was devolved to them. The scope of this paper is to present an overview of these devolved powers which enable French départements to create protected areas and to levy a departmental tax on sensitive natural spaces (DTSNS). We statistically studied some parameters by multivariate methods in order to explain the choices of this policy by the départements. The huge variations in the way these powers are implemented prove the development of new environmental territories.     

Soil liquefaction susceptibility and hazard mapping in the residential area of Kütahya (Turkey)

This study presents the results of both field and laboratory tests that have been undertaken to assess liquefaction susceptibilities of the soils in Kütahya city, located in the well-known seismically active fault zone. Liquefaction potentials of the sub-surface materials at Kütahya city were estimated by using the geological aspect and geotechnical methods such as SPT method of field testing. And, the data obtained have been mapped according to susceptibility and hazard. The susceptibility map indicated “liquefable” and “marginally liquefable” areas in alluvium, and “non-liquefable” areas in Neogene unit for the magnitude of earthquake of M=6.5; whereas, liquefaction hazard map produced by using of liquefaction potential index showed the severity categories from “very low” to “high.” However, a large area in the study area is prone to liquefy according to liquefaction susceptibility map; the large parts of the liquefable horizon are mapped as “low” class of severity by the use of the liquefaction potential index. It can be said that hazard mapping of liquefaction for a given site is crucial than producing liquefaction susceptibility map for estimating the severity. Both the susceptibility and hazard maps should be produced and correlated with each other for planning in an engineering point of view.     

Numerical modeling of rainstorm-induced shallow landslides in saturated and unsaturated soils

For the assessment of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall, the physically based model coupling the infinite slope stability analysis with the hydrological modeling in nearly saturated soil has commonly been used due to its simplicity. However, in that model the rainfall infiltration in unsaturated soil could not be reliably simulated because a linear diffusion-type Richards’ equation rather than the complete Richards’ equation was used. In addition, the effect of matric suction on the shear strength of soil was not actually considered. Therefore, except the shallow landslide in saturated soil due to groundwater table rise, the shallow landslide induced by the loss in unsaturated shear strength due to the dissipation of matric suction could not be reliably assessed. In this study, a physically based model capable of assessing shallow landslides in variably saturated soils is developed by adopting the complete Richards’ equation with the effect of slope angle in the rainfall infiltration modeling and using the extended Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion to describe the unsaturated shear strength in the soil failure modeling. The influence of rainfall intensity and duration on shallow landslide is investigated using the developed model. The result shows that the rainfall intensity and duration seem to have similar influence on shallow landslides respectively triggered by the increase of positive pore water pressure in saturated soil and induced by the dissipation of matric suction in unsaturated soil. The rainfall duration threshold decreases with the increase in rainfall intensity, but remains constant for large rainfall intensity.     

降雨诱发浅层滑坡稳定性的计算模型研究

我国是一个滑坡灾害频发的国家,众多事实表明：降雨是影响边坡稳定性,导致边坡失稳的最主要和最普遍的环境因素,是浅层滑坡的触发因素。为了更好地对降雨诱发浅层滑坡进行研究,采用非饱和土VG模型与改进的Green-Ampt入渗模型对Mein-Larson降雨入渗模型进行改进,并结合无限边坡提出了一个降雨诱发浅层滑坡的简化计算模型。与以往提出的简化计算模型相比,该模型既考虑了坡面倾斜的影响,又考虑了非饱和土的特性,并可用于两种降雨形式下的边坡浅层稳定性估算,具有更广的应用范围。通过与有限元得到的结果进行比较可得：在不同降雨条件下,该计算模型得到的各项结果与数值解是接近的,安全系数计算结果是偏于安全的,因此,可将该计算模型用于降雨诱发浅层滑坡的近似估算;该计算模型公式简单,便于计算,计算效率较高。     

Exporting a Google Earth<Superscript>™</Superscript> aided earth-flow susceptibility model: a test in central Sicily

In the framework of a regional landslide susceptibility study in southern Sicily, a test has been carried out in the Tumarrano river basin (about 80 km²) aimed at characterizing its landslide susceptibility conditions by exporting a “source model”, defined and trained inside a limited (about 20 km²) representative sector (the “source area”). Also, the possibility of exploiting Google Earth^™ software and photo-images databank to produce the landslide archives has been checked. The susceptibility model was defined, according to a multivariate geostatistic approach based on the conditional analysis, using unique condition units (UCUs), which were obtained by combining four selected controlling factors: outcropping lithology, steepness, plan curvature and topographic wetness index. The prediction skill of the exported model, trained with 206 landslides, is compared with the one estimated for the whole studied area, by using a complete landslide archive (703 landslides), to see to what extent the largest time/money costs needed are accounted for. The investigated area stretches in the fore-deep sector of southern Sicily, where clayey rocks, mainly referring to the Numidian Flysch and the Terravecchia Formations, largely crop out. The results of the study confirm both the exploitability of Google Earth^™ to produce landslide archive and possibility to adopt in assessing the landslide susceptibility for large basin, a strategy based on the exportation of models trained in limited representative sectors.     

Spatially distributed rainfall thresholds for the initiation of shallow landslides

The evaluation of the combined influence of rainfall patterns (in terms of mean intensity and duration) and the geomorphological and mechanical characteristics of hillslopes on their stability conditions is a major goal in the assessment of the shallow landslide triggering processes. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) represent an important tool to develop models that combine hydrological and geomechanical analyses for the evaluation of slope stability, as they allow to combine information concerning rainfall characteristics with topographic and mechanical properties of the slopes over wide areas. In this paper, a GIS-based code is developed to determine physically based intensity/duration rainfall thresholds at the local scale. Given the rainfall duration and the local geometric, hydrological and mechanical characteristics of the slopes, the code evaluates the spatial distribution of the minimum rainfall intensity that triggers shallow landslides and debris flows over a given area. The key feature of the code is the capability of evaluating the time t _p required to reach the peak pore pressure head on the failure surface and computing the corresponding critical intensity/duration thresholds based on post-event peak pore pressures. The reliability of the model is tested using a set of one-dimensional analyses, comparing the physically based thresholds obtained for three different slopes with some empirical rainfall thresholds. In a log–log scale, the thresholds provided by the model decrease linearly with increased rainfall duration and they are bracketed by the empirical thresholds considered. Finally, an example of application to a study area of the Umbria region in central Italy is presented, describing the capability of the model of providing site-specific thresholds for different rainfall scenarios.     

Hydrological regimes in different slope environments and implications on rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides

Natural Hazards - Assessing hazard of rainfall-induced shallow landslides represents a challenge for the risk management of urbanized areas for which the setting up of early warning systems, based...     

Provenance and pathways of late Quaternary turbidites in the deep-water Agadir Basin,northwest African margin

A series of individual turbidites, correlated over distances >100 km, are present in the recent fill of the Agadir Basin, offshore northwest Africa. The aim here is to unravel multiple turbidite source areas and flow pathways, and show how turbidite provenance studies contribute to interpretation of flow processes. Agadir Basin turbidites are sourced from four main areas, with the majority originating from the siliciclastic Morocco Shelf; their sand-mud distribution is strongly controlled by flow sediment volume, with relatively low-volume flows dying out within the Agadir Basin and large-volume flows bypassing significant sediment volumes to basins further downslope. Two large-volume volcaniclastic turbidites are attributed to a Canary Islands landslide source, while several small mud-dominated turbidites are interpreted to be locally sourced from hemipelagic-draped seamounts (e.g. Turbidite AB10). Finally, Turbidite AB1 (∼1 ka) is only present in the western Agadir Basin, and is linked to recent “re-activation” of the Sahara Slide headwall. The muddy suspension clouds of three large-volume flows, all linked to large-scale landslides, have covered huge areas of seafloor and flowed along or even slightly upslope for long distances. It is proposed that northeastwards-flowing bottom currents have aided transport of these dilute flow fractions into and across the Agadir Basin.     

Frequency–size relation of shallow debris slides on cut slopes along a railroad corridor: A case study from Nilgiri hills, Southern India

The probability of landslide volume, V _L , is a key parameter in the quantitative hazard analysis. Several studies have demonstrated that the non-cumulative probability density, p(V _L ), of landslide volumes obeys almost invariably a negative power law scaling of p(V _L ) for landslides exceeding a threshold volume and a roll-over of small landslides. Some researchers attributed the observed roll-over to under-sampling of data, while others relate it to a geo-morphological (physical) property of landslides. We analyzed 15 sets of a complete landslide inventory containing shallow debris slides (2 ≤ V _L  ≤ 3.6 × 10³ m³) with sources located on cut slopes along a 17-km-long railroad corridor. The 15 datasets belong to individual years from 1992 to 2007. We obtained the non-cumulative probability densities of landslide volumes for each dataset and analyzed the distribution pattern. The results indicate that for some datasets the probability density exhibits a negative power law distribution for all ranges of volume, while for others, the negative power scaling exists only for a volume greater than 10 m³, with scaling exponent β varying between 0.96 and 2.4. When the spatial distribution of landslides were analyzed in relation to the terrain condition and triggering rainfall, we observed that the number of landslides and the range and the frequency of volumes vary according to the changes in local terrain condition and the amount of rainfall that trigger landslides. We conclude that the probability density distribution of landslide volumes has a dependency on the local morphology and rainfall intensity and the deviation of small landslides from power law, i.e., the roll-over is a “real effect” and not an artifact due to sampling discrepancies.     

A distributed hydrological–geotechnical model using satellite-derived rainfall estimates for shallow landslide prediction system at a catchment scale

This paper describes the potential applicability of a hydrological–geotechnical modeling system using satellite-based rainfall estimates for a shallow landslide prediction system. The physically based distributed model has been developed by integrating a grid-based distributed kinematic wave rainfall-runoff model with an infinite slope stability approach. The model was forced by the satellite-based near real-time half-hourly CMORPH global rainfall product prepared by NOAA-CPC. The method combines the following two model outputs necessary for identifying where and when shallow landslides may potentially occur in the catchment: (1) the time-invariant spatial distribution of areas susceptible to slope instability map, for which the river catchment is divided into stability classes according to the critical relative soil saturation; this output is designed to portray the effect of quasi-static land surface variables and soil strength properties on slope instability and (2) a produced map linked with spatiotemporally varying hydrologic properties to provide a time-varying estimate of susceptibility to slope movement in response to rainfall. The proposed hydrological model predicts the dynamic of soil saturation in each grid element. The stored water in each grid element is then used for updating the relative soil saturation and analyzing the slope stability. A grid of slope is defined to be unstable when the relative soil saturation becomes higher than the critical level and is the basis for issuing a shallow landslide warning. The method was applied to past landslides in the upper Citarum River catchment (2,310 km²), Indonesia; the resulting time-invariant landslide susceptibility map shows good agreement with the spatial patterns of documented historical landslides (1985–2008). Application of the model to two recent shallow landslides shows that the model can successfully predict the effect of rainfall movement and intensity on the spatiotemporal dynamic of hydrological variables that trigger shallow landslides. Several hours before the landslides, the model predicted unstable conditions in some grids over and near the grids at which the actual shallow landslides occurred. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential applicability of the modeling system for shallow landslide disaster predictions and warnings.     

Soil depth reconstruction for the assessment of the susceptibility to shallow landslides in fine-grained slopes

This paper proposes a methodology aimed at reconstructing the maximum thickness mobilized by shallow landslides in fine-grained soils with the aid of geological and geotechnical analyses. The methodology, implemented within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, is composed of two stages for map reconstruction and two stages for map validation. The first stage of map reconstruction is aimed at individuating the soil thickness on the basis of only topographical and geological analyses; the second stage improves the previously obtained map with the aid of morphological and geotechnical analyses that provide a thickness map usable for shallow landslide susceptibility assessment. This map is validated with the aid of both in situ investigations (stage I), and geotechnical models able to back-analyse shallow precipitation-induced landslides over a wide area (stage II). An application of the proposed methodology is provided for a test area of the Calabria region (southern Italy) that is representative of the Catanzaro Strait, where widely diffused shallow landslides in fine-grained soils systematically occur. The results highlight the usefulness and reliability of the geotechnical models when implemented with the aid of a database representative of fine-grained soils while a secondary role is played by in situ investigations that in the test site have been performed only in a few representative and accessible areas.     

Application of a GIS-aided method for the assessment of volcaniclastic soil sliding susceptibility to sample areas of Campania (Southern Italy)

A significant part of Campania is extensively covered by volcaniclastic soils, deriving from the alteration of airfall-sedimented formations of layered ashes and pumices that were ejected by Campi Flegrei and Mt. Somma–Vesuvius during explosive eruptions. Where such soils cover steep slopes cut in carbonate bedrock, landforms depend essentially on the morpho-evolution of such slopes prior to the deposition of the volcaniclastic soils, because these are generally present only as thin veneers, up to a few meters of total thickness. Historical records and local literature testify that, in this part of Campania, landslides that originate on carbonate slopes covered by such soils and terminate at their foot or at gully outlets are frequent, following critical rainfall events. Such landslides can be classified as complex, occurring initially as debris slides, but rapidly evolving into debris avalanches and/or debris flows. The localization of the initial sliding areas (i.e. “sources”) on the slopes depends on both the spatial distribution of characters of the soil cover and the spatial distribution of the triggering rainfall events. It therefore appears reasonable to separate the two aspects of the problem and focus on the former one, in order to attempt an assessment of soil sliding susceptibility in the event of landslide-triggering rainfall. In this paper, some results of the application of a method aimed at such an assessment are presented. The method, called SLIDE (from SLiding Initiation areas DEtection), is based on the concept that, for a spatially homogeneous soil cover and a spatially homogeneous landslide-triggering rainfall sequence, different values of threshold slope gradient for limit equilibrium conditions exist, depending on morphological characters of the soil cover, such as its continuity and planform curvature. The method is based on the assessment of (1) soil cover presence, (2) discontinuities within soil cover, (3) slope gradients and curvature, by means of good resolution DEMs. It has been applied to sample carbonate slopes of Campania, where landslides originated either repeatedly or recently. Results are encouraging, and a soil sliding susceptibility map of a large area, based on a simplified version of method, is also presented.     

Influences of soil water characteristic curve on rainfall-induced shallow landslides

The analysis of slope instability induced by rainfall was usually performed using the main drying curve as the measurement of the main wetting curve is a more time-consuming and costly task. In this study, the influences of the main drying and wetting curves on rainfall-induced shallow landslides are examined. Three designed scenarios and a real case scenario are used to conduct this examination. The prediction of shallow landslide occurrence is related to the main drying and wetting curves due to the strong relation between groundwater pressure head and hysteresis effect. The main wetting curve may have a less minimum landslide-triggering rainfall amount and a less rainfall duration threshold for landslide occurrence than the drying wetting curve. For safety’s sake, an underestimation of shallow landslide occurrence may be produced by the commonly used main drying curve. In addition, besides the shallow landslide occurrence, the failure depth and the time to failure are also influenced by the main drying and wetting curves. The hysteresis effect should be taken into account for assessing rainfall-induced shallow landslides.     

Predictive Power Evaluation of a Physically Based Model for Shallow Landslides in the Area of Oltrepò Pavese,Northern Italy

The use of real-time landslide early warning systems is attracting the attention of the scientific community, since it allows to assess “where” and “when” a shallow rainfall-induced landslide might occur by coupling rainfall amounts, hydrological models and slope-stability analysis. The paper deals with the main results of a back analysis, which refers to the application of a physically based stability model [Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction (SLIP)] on regional scale. The analysis concerns the occurrence of some recent rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the municipal territory of Broni, in the area of Oltrepò Pavese (Northern Italy). The study area is a hilly region 2.4 km² wide, where more than 40 % of the territory has slopes steeper than 15° and altitudes are between 90 and 250 m a.s.l. As regards the geologic setting, clayey-silty shallow colluvial deposits, with a maximum thickness of about 3 m, overlap a bedrock made of clayey shales, calcareous flysch and marls. The SLIP model is based on the limit equilibrium method applied to an infinite slope and on the Mohr–Coulomb strength criterion for the soil. By assuming that the main hydro-geotechnical process that leads to failure is the saturation of parts of the soil, the model allows to take into account the condition of partial saturation of the soil. The safety factor (F _S ) of a slope is also function of previous rainfalls. After the implementation of the model at territory scale, the input data have been introduced through a geographic information systems platform. In the current paper we mainly intend to evaluate the performance of SLIP at catchment scale, by comparison to (1) observed landslide events and (2) another well-established physically based model (TRIGRS). Further, we want to assess the suitability of the model as early warning tool. The results produced by the model are analyzed both in terms of safety factor maps, corresponding to some particular rainfall events, and in terms of the time-varying percentage of unstable areas over a 2-year span period. The paper shows the comparison between observed landslide localizations and model predictions. A quantitative comparison between the SLIP model and TRIGRS is presented, only for the most important event that occurred during the analyzed period. Overall, the results of the stability analyses based on observed rainfalls show the capability of the SLIP model to predict, in real-time and on a wide area, the occurrence of the analyzed phenomena.