Precipitation Effects on Temperature-A Case Study in China

To discover the mechanism of the continuous summer temperature decline in certain regions against significant global warming,456 national meteorological observational stations with long term of observed daily temperature and precipitation data were applied to analyze the relationship between precipitation and temperature.Results show that there is a significant negative correlation between precipitation and temperature,indicating that precipitation influences temperature signifi-cantly:the more the precipit...     

1958-2008年山西气温变化的特征及趋势研究

With the original meteorological record, monthly report and informationized manufacture data of 109 stations during 1958-2008 archived by Shanxi Meteorological Information Center, the authors studied the variation trend and characteristics of average air temperature, average maximum and minimum air temperature, and average daily range of air temperature in Shanxi, the results show that: during the resent 51a, the warming trend of average air temperature, average maximum and minimum air temperature separately was 0.306℃/10a,0.337℃/10a and 0.363℃/10a in Shanxi, which was much higher than that of the corresponding period of the whole nation; the warming trend in winter, spring and autumn separately was 0.46℃/10a、0.35℃/10a和0.26 ℃/10a, the warming range was obviously higher than that of the whole nation, though, the warming range in summer was lower than that of the whole nation; the average daily range: was on descending trend in winter, summer and the whole year without exception, while in spring and autumn it was on weak upward trend. North Shanxi is not only the area where the seasonal and annual warming is the most obvious, but also is the area where the decreasing scope and extent of average daily range are maximum, Southwest Shanxi is the area where the increasing scope and extent of average daily range are maximum all the year round, in summer the air temperature appeared obvious dropping trend in the southeast of Shanxi; The contribution that the enhancing factor of urban heat island effect made to the seasonal average air temperature rising of moderate cities and above, is the highest in summer, and the lowest in winter.     

Review on snowmelt runoff simulation in mountain regions,Northwest China北大核心CSCD

Snowmelt runoff is a valuable water resource in Northwest China. In the past few decades, progress has been achieved in snowmelt runoff simulation in mountainous areas, including observation and simulation of snow melt process, improvement and development of distributed snow melt runoff model, and ability for application of snow melt runoff model with temporal and spatial distribution driving data. The development of interpolation algorithm, remote sensing and data assimilation technology provides data support for the widespread application of distributed snowmelt runoff model in northwest mountainous regions of China. Climate warming and economic and social development will further aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in the arid regions of Northwest China, which requires higher precision and detail spatial and temporal resolution of snowmelt runoff simulation. Based on the progress and challenges on snowmelt runoff simulation in mountainous regions of Northwest China, following studies need more attention：the mechanism of snow accumulation and ablation, snow cover spatial and temporal distribution monitoring and high precision of snow distribution data acquisition, quantitative climate change impact on river basin snowmelt runoff. © 2022 The authors.     

Thermal Characteristics of the Embankment with Crushed Rock Side Slope to Mitigate Thaw Settlement Hazards of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway

Abstract: Permafrost (perennially frozen ground) appears widely in the Golmud-Lhasa section of the Qinghai-Tibet railway and is characterized by high ground temperature (≥ ?1°C) and massive ground ice. Under the scenarios of global warming and human activity, the permafrost under the railway will gradually thaw and the massive ground ice will slowly melt, resulting in some thaw settlement hazards, which mainly include longitudinal and lateral cracks, and slope failure. The crushed rock layer has a thermal semiconductor effect under the periodic fluctuation of natural air. It can be used to lower the temperature of the underlying permafrost along the Qinghai-Tibet railway, and mitigate the thaw settlement hazards of the subgrade. In the present paper, the daily and annual changes in the thermal characteristics of the embankment with crushed rock side slope (ECRSS) were quantitatively simulated using the numerical method to study the cooling effect of the crushed rock layer and its mitigative ability. The results showed that the ECRSS absorbed some heat in the daytime in summer, but part of it was released at night, which accounted for approximately 20% of that absorbed. Within a year, it removed more heat from the railway subgrade in winter than that absorbed in summer. It can store approximately 20% of the “cold” energy in subgrade. Therefore, ECRSS is a better measure to mitigate thaw settlement hazards to the railway.     

The PMIP3 Simulated Climate Changes over Arid Central Asia during the Mid‐Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum

In this study, the climate changes over Arid Central Asia(ACA) during the mid-Holocene(approximately 6,000 calendar years ago, MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum(approximately 21,000 calendar years ago, LGM) were investigated using multimodel simulations derived from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3(PMIP3). During the MH, the multimodel median(MMM) shows that in the core region of ACA, the regionally averaged annual surface air temperature(SAT) decreases by 0.13°C and annual precipitation decreases by 3.45%, compared with the preindustrial(PI) climate. The MMM of the SAT increases by 1.67/0.13°C in summer/autumn, whereas it decreases by 1.23/1.11°C in spring/winter. The amplitude of the seasonal cycles of the SAT increases over ACA due to different MH orbital parameters. For precipitation, the regionally averaged MMM decreases by 5.77%/5.69%/0.39%/5.24% in spring/summer/autumn/winter, respectively. Based on the analysis of the aridity index(AI), compared with the PI, a drier climate appears in southern Central Asia and western Xinjiang due to decreasing precipitation. During the LGM, the MMM shows that the regionally averaged SAT decreases by 5.04/4.36/4.70/5.12/5.88°C and precipitation decreases by 27.78%/28.16%/31.56%/27.74%/23.29% annually and in the spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. Robust drying occurs throughout almost the whole core area. Decreasing precipitation plays a dominant role in shaping the drier conditions, whereas strong cooling plays a secondary but opposite role. In response to the LGM external forcings, over Central Asia and Xinjiang, the seasonal cycle of precipitation has a smaller amplitude compared with that under the PI climate. In the model-data comparison, the simulated MH moisture changes over ACA are to some extent consistent with the reconstructions, further confirming that drier conditions occurred during that period than during the PI.     

Preface

<正>The impact of human activities on the groundwater has become more and more intense,and the global climate warming and drying trend has become more increasingly obvious.How we could keep sustainability of groundwater utilization under such intense geological and environmental disasters caused by excessive exploitation of groundwater becomes one of the important topics on sustainable development in the world.     

Hydrochemistry and H-O-C-S Isotopic Geochemistry Characteristics of Geothermal Water in Nyemo-Nagqu, Tibet

Nyemo-Nagqu, Tibet, is rich in high-temperature geothermal resources. The geothermal fields in Yangbajain and Yangyi as well as 11 unexplored geothermal fields along the geothermal belt from Nyemo to Nagqu were systematically investigated and the hydrochemistry data were collected from the whole field. Meanwhile, H-O-C-S isotope data were obtained for the new fields, and H-O isotope data for the Yangbajain and Yangyi fields. A comparison of the Nyemo-Nagqu geothermal fields with those in the Yangbajain area shows that the types of high-temperature geothermal water are dominated by Cl-Na and Cl·HCO_3-Na, while the types of medium-high-temperature geothermal water are dominated by HCO_3-Na. The concentrations of Li, F, SiO_2, and HBO_2 in the geothermal water are positively correlated with Cl content, indicating possible mixing with magma water. The reservoir temperatures range from 90 to 270°C by geothermometers. Slight drifting of ~(18)O was recorded at the Dongweng and Nyingzhong high-temperature geothermal fields, while more significant drifting was recorded at Gulu. The geothermal water is mainly replenished by atmospheric precipitation. The low tritium contents(1 TU) of the geothermal water from Nyingzhong, Gulu, and Luoma indicate that it is mainly replenished by sub-modern(prior to 1952) water, while the high tritium content(8.4 TU) in Yuela implies modern water replenishment. Other geothermal fields are replenished by a mix of sub-modern fresher water. The isotopic data in this study show that the carbon and sulfur in the geothermal water originates mainly from sediment leaching, with some of the carbon and sulfur having a deep origin.     

Study on the snowdrift disaster influenced by w-beam barrier used in expressway北大核心CSCD

Snowdrift is one of the most typical snow disaster forms of road traffic in Xinjiang area. Its impact on road traffic is mainly reflected in reducing driving visibility and causing traffic interruption induced by a large amount of snow on the road surface. The snowdrift disaster along the road in Xinjiang area shows the characteristics as many points,long lines and wide spread occurring with uneven distribution in time and space. Snowdrift question involves wind field,snow distribution field,temperature field and humidity field coupling,which is a very complex scientific problem. At the same time,the prevention and control of snowdrift disasters is also a practical problem that needs to be solved urgently in the construction and operation of road traffic infrastructure in cold areas. For expressways in areas of frequent snowdrift occurring,its snowdrift disaster caused by the w-beam barrier is becoming more and more obviously. But there is still a lack of in-depth research on the w-beam barrier,which is one kind of auxiliary facilities of the highway deepening the snowdrift disaster. In view of the status mentioned above and in order to explore the causes and prevention methods to snowdrift disaster by w-beam barrier,on the background of Beijing-Urumqi Expressway（G7）engineering,the field model tests of the w-beam barrier,the cable barrier and the no barrier embankment were designed. The study also combined with numerical simulation and highway field investigation and other methods in order to verify each other. In the meantime,the influence of the w-beam barrier and cable barrier on the road snowdrift disaster of the highway is studied,and the distribution law of wind field and snow field on the embankment surface with w-beam barrier and cable barrier is obtained. The results show that the snowdrift velocity increases from the foot of the embankment on the upwind side till to the w-beam barrier installed at the shoulder of or the central divider of the road. Then it moves to the road surface through the gap in the lower part of the w-beam barrier. At this time the w-beam barrier disturbs the wind field near the ground,causing a weak wind area to appear behind the beam,resulting in a large number of snow particles deposited. Especially when the lower gap of the w-beam barrier is filled with snow,the road area behind the w-beam barrier covers the driving lane with snow,which seriously affects the road capacity. While the section without setting up a barrier or setting a cable barrier is conducive to the passage of snowdrift flow. Considering the uncertainty of future climate change,in order to better prevent the impact of snowdrift on traffic operation safety,it is proposed to replace the w-beam barrier in some areas with serious wind and snow disasters with cable barrier that meet the safety requirements of expressways. Moreover,other snowdrift protection measures such as snow fences,snow barriers and snow walls can also be adopted. The research results can provide useful reference for snow removal of the expressway and new expressway construction in the windy and snow areas of Xinjiang. © 2022 Science Press (China).     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987111001290

The Three Gorges Dam(TGD) of the Yangtze River.China,is one of the largest irrigation and hydroelectric engineering projects in the world.The effects of huge man-made projects like TGD on fauna and macrophyte are obvious,mainly through changes of water dynamics and flow pattern;however, it is less clear how microorganisms respond to such changes.This research was aimed to examine differences in microbial diversity at different seasons and locations(in front of and behind the TGD).In addition, differences between particle-attached and free-living communities were also examined.The community structures of total and potentially active microorganisms in the water columns behind and in front of the TGD were analyzed with the DNA- and RNA-based 16S rRNA gene phylogenetic approaches over three different seasons.Clone libraries of 16S rRNA genes were prepared after amplification from extracted DNA and.for some samples,after preparing cDNA from extracted rRNA.Differences were observed between sites at different seasons and between free-living and particle-attached communities.Both bacterial and archaeal communities were more diverse in summer than in winter, due to higher nutrient levels and warmer temperature in summer than in winter.Particle-attached microorganisms were more diverse than free-living communities,possibly because of higher nutrient levels and heterogeneous geochemical micro-environments in particles.Spatial variations in bacterial community structure were observed,i.e..the water reservoir behind the TGD(upstream) hosted more diverse bacterial populations than in front of the dam(downstream),because of diverse sources of sediments and waters from upstream to the reservoir.These results have important implications for our understanding of responses of microbial communities to environmental changes in river ecosystems affected by dam construction.     

Mechanism of Varve Formation and Paleoenvironmental Research at Lake Bolterskardet, Svalbard, the Arctic

On the basis of observation of thin sections and 137Cs data, laminations in sediment are interpreted to be varves in Bolterskardet Lake (78°06' N, 16°01' E), Svalbard, the Arctic. Varves appear under a petrologic microscope as couplets of dark-silt and light-clay layers. The mechanism of varve formation is surmized as follows: each silt layer is the production of sediment inflow interpreted as mainly derived from snowmelt during summer; each clay layer was deposited in a stillwater environment during an ice-cover period. A light -clay layer provides an important index bed to identify the annual interface. The high accumulation rates, long period of ice cover, and topographically closed basin are probably all critical factors in forming and preserving varves. Varve thickness is known to be controlled mainly by summer temperature. The variation of varve thickness in Lake Bolterskardet can then be used to reconstruct summer temperature. The varve series show that there has been distinct decade-scale variability of summer temperature over the past 150 years. Warm periods occurred in the 1860s, around 1900, the 1930s, 1950s, and 1970s, and in the last 20 years. The varved sediments of Lake Bolterskarde preserve an ideal record for high-resolution paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental research in this data-sparse area.     

新疆阿尔泰山地区极端水文事件对气候变化的响应

新疆北部阿尔泰山地区受西风带气流影响, 降水丰沛, 尤其冬季积雪厚而稳定, 山区产流发育了额尔齐斯河与乌伦古河, 从西到东形成主要支流十余条. 在全球气候变化下, 山区气温上升明显, 极端降水增多, 气候变暖带来的水循环加快, 极端水文事件也趋于增多. 由于冬季气温升高, 春季积雪消融提前, 春季融雪洪水提前, 洪峰流量增强; 夏季极端降水增加, 使得暴雨洪水增多. 由于冬、 春季积雪增多, 雪灾发生频率增加, 春季的融雪洪水灾害危害增强. 极端水文事件引起的自然灾害已经威胁到阿勒泰地区的牧业生产、 交通安全和水资源供给, 应加强水文水资源安全对气候变化的应对措施, 提高水资源安全保障, 减缓气候变化的危害.     

2001-2012年新疆融雪型洪水时空分布特征

利用2001-2012年新疆区域内发生的融雪型洪水资料,分析研究了近12 a新疆融雪型洪水时空分布特征.结果表明:新疆融雪型洪水与前一年10月至当年3月新疆全站总累计降水量大小相关,降水量大的年份,对应的融雪型洪水发生次数也多;冬末至夏季融雪型洪水在北疆地区基本上是从西向东、从南向北的先后顺序出现,而在南疆地区的融雪洪水基本上是从西向东、从北向南先后顺序出现.新疆融雪型洪水主要集中出现在春夏季,其中,北疆地区在3月,南疆地区在7月发生较多;伊犁河谷、昌吉、阿勒泰、和田等地区及青河、乌鲁木齐、阿克陶、民丰等市县是新疆融雪型洪水的高发区.     

新疆天山北坡中段河流冰凌洪水特征分析

冰凌洪水(冰洪)是新疆天山北坡中段河流冬季的一种特殊洪水,其暴发主要受气温、逆温带范围、冬季河流来水量、冰情冰厚、地势.河道弯曲率和河床条件等多种因素影响."冰洪"具有随机性、规律性和不重复性三种特性,冰凌洪水的峰型类似于暴雨洪水具有陡涨陡落的特点,峰前陡峭而落峰则相对缓一些.以四棵树河为典型流域,对冰凌洪水的成因、发展和运动规律进行研究,并发现冰凌洪水具有"水鼓冰开"现象.对四棵树河1967-2006年冰洪流量的年内、年际分布情况看,20世纪70-80年代由于冬季气候寒冷,是"冰洪"发生最多的时期;自进入20世纪90年代以来由于受全球气候变暖等因素影响,冰凌洪水呈现衰退趋势,气候变暖对冰洪影响非常大.     

北疆地区融雪洪水及其前期气候积雪特征分析

依据水文观测资料,对北疆地区发生融雪洪水前期气温、降水、积雪和诱发洪水的升温条件进行了分析,得出了发生融雪洪水的定量指标,有助于今后开展融雪洪水预报。     

额尔齐斯河流域上游地区近50 a来气温和降水变化的DFA分析

为查明新疆境内额尔齐斯河流域年及季节性气温和降水变化规律,并对未来的可能变化趋势做出预测,基于去趋势波动分析法（DFA）对流域近50 a来的气温、降水序列的平均值和极端值进行分析. 研究表明,年降水及春、夏的降水序列有较好的长程相关性,在较长时间尺度内均有继续保持原有趋势的可能,即年降水继续增加,春、夏降水维持稳定;秋、冬季降水则呈现弱持续性和强随机性,在短时间尺度上保持现状,长时间尺度上则存在改变的可能. 年均温及夏、秋、冬温也将继续保持升温的趋势,春季长时间尺度上存在改变的可能. 流域内温度和降水都将保持增长的趋势,而且温度的持续上升相对降水具有更高的可能性. 由DFA方法确定的极端阈值及相应极值序列显示：20世纪80年代以来,极端高温和极端降水事件开始增多,且量值增大,准周期变短,但极端高值并没有显著提高;极端低温事件的发生次数减少显著,平均值增大,同时低温极值增高明显,冬季气温对全球变化的响应更为敏感.     

我国过去50a来降水变化趋势及其对水资源的影响(Ⅱ):月系列

应用全国范围内的678个气象站1951-1998年长系列逐月降水资料, 用线性回归方法研究降水量的变化趋势, 同时结合长江、黄河和松花江主要控制水文站同期的径流资料, 研究径流对气候变化的响应. 结果表明: 降水的年内变化表现出较大的区域特性, 最显著的变化特点是秋冬季 (8～12月) 东部地区降水量普遍减少, 1～3月江南地区降水有增加趋势. 气候的上述变化趋势对我国干旱的西北地区有利, 该区河流径流量有明显增加; 另一方面, 夏季降水的增加可能会导致洪水事件的濒发, 与此同时, 降水量的年内不均匀变化, 特别是在 8～12月长时间的降水减少趋势, 导致枯水期径流的减少, 从而加剧秋冬季水资源的供需矛盾. 长江、黄河和松花江主要控制水文站6个站1～4月径流基本上表现为增加趋势, 而6～12月大多表现为减少趋势, 只有黄河上游唐乃亥站6月, 长江下游大通站7月和松花江哈尔滨站8月径流为增加; 另外, 气候变暖使发源于青藏高原的长江(宜昌站3、 4月)和黄河上游(唐乃亥站4～6月)的春季的融雪过程提前, 融雪期径流增加.     

Risk assessment of flood disaster in Shanghai based on spatial–temporal characteristics analysis from 251 to 2000

As one of the top 20 cities exposed to flood disasters, Shanghai is particularly vulnerable because it is exposed to powerful floods and poorly prepared. However, it is unclear to understand the evolution process of floods and the variation of flood risk in Shanghai during the past 1,000 years. This paper analyzed the spatial–temporal characteristics of flood disaster and evaluated the integrated risk of flood disaster in Shanghai based on the historical flood data from 251 to 2000. The results show that flood disaster in Shanghai was divided into storm surge-induced flood, rainstorm-induced flood and overbank flood. Flood disaster in Shanghai presents rising trend with time and mainly occurs in summer and autumn. Moreover, the flood disaster is dominated by rainstorm-induced flood, especially after the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Additionally, flood risk in different areas of Shanghai between the years 251–1949 and 1950–2000 changed significantly. Shanghai urban area, Jinshan District and Chongming County belong to increased flood risk area; Baoshan, Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian, Pudong and Minhang District belong to decreased flood risk area. The integrated risk of flood disaster in Shanghai has presented spatial disparities evidently at present. Shanghai urban area is most likely to suffer flood disaster; Baoshan, Jiading and Minhang District have medium flood risk rank; and Jinshan, Songjiang, Fengxian, Pudong, Qingpu and Chongming County show low flood risk at present. The combined effect of urbanization, sea-level rise, land subsidence and the poor capacity of flood prevention facilities will give rise to the risk of flood in the next several decades. These results provide very important information for the local government to improve flood risk management.     

PRECIS模式对宁夏气候变化情景的模拟分析*

使用英国Hadley气候中心区域气候模式PRECIS,分析了B2温室气体排放情景下,相对于气候基准时段1961~1990年宁夏2071~2100年(2080s)地面气温、降水量等的变化。结果表明:PRECIS模式能够很好地模拟宁夏气温的分布特征,对夏季最高气温的模拟效果好于冬季最低气温;较好地模拟出了宁夏降水南多北少的空间差异特征,且对夏季降水的模拟能力明显强于年均降水和冬季降水。相对于气候基准时段, 在B2情景下,2080s宁夏年平均、冬季和夏季平均气温均明显上升,宁夏北部和南部的部分地区气温上升幅度最大,夏季平均气温和最高气温上升幅度大于冬季平均气温和最低气温;未来宁夏年、冬季和夏季平均降水较基准时段均有所增加,但降水随年代际却呈减少趋势,由于气温和降水的气候变率加大,2080s宁夏出现高温、干旱、洪涝等异常天气事件的可能性增大。     

Risk analysis and influencing factors of drought and flood disasters in China

The risk analysis of flood and drought disasters and the study of their influencing factors enhance our understanding of the temporal and spatial variation law of disasters and help identify the main factors affecting disasters. This paper uses the provincial administrative region of China as the research area. The proportion of the disaster area represents the degree of the disaster. The statistical distribution of the proportions was optimized from 10 alternative distributions based on a KS test, and the disaster risk was analyzed. Thirty-five indicators were selected from nature, agriculture and the social economy as alternative factors. The main factors affecting flood and drought disasters were selected by Pearson, Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficient test. The results demonstrated that the distribution of floods and drought is right-skewed, and the gamma distribution is the best statistical distribution for fitting disasters. In terms of time, the risk of flood and drought disasters in all regions showed a downward trend. Economic development and the enhancement of the ability to resist disasters were the main reasons for the change in disasters. Spatially, the areas with high drought risk were mainly distributed in Northeast and North China, and the areas with high flood risk were mainly distributed in the south, especially in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui. The distribution of floods and drought disasters was consistent with the distribution characteristics of precipitation and water resources in China. Among the natural factors, precipitation was the main factor causing changes in floods and drought disasters. Among the agricultural and socioeconomic factors, the indicators reflecting the disaster resistance ability and regional economic development level were closely related to flood and drought disasters. The research results have reference significance for disaster classification, disaster formation mechanisms and flood and drought resistance.

     

新疆阿尔泰山区克兰河上游水文过程对气候变暖的响应

额尔齐斯河支流克兰河上游发源于西风带水汽影响的阿尔泰山南坡,主要由融雪径流补给,年内积雪融水可占年径流量的45%.年最大月径流一般出现在6月份,融雪季节4~6月径流量占65%.流域自20世纪60年代开始明显升温,年平均温度从50年代的1.4℃上升到90年代的5.2℃;年降水总量也呈增加趋势,尤其是冬季和初春增加最多.随着气候变暖,河流年内水文过程发生了很大的变化,主要表现在最大月径流由6月提前到5月,月径流总量增加约15%,4~6月融雪径流量也由占年流量的60%增加到近70%.在多年变化趋势上,气温上升主要发生在冬季,降水也以冬季增加明显,而夏季降水呈下降趋势;水文过程主要表现在5月径流呈增加趋势,而6月径流为下降趋势;夏季径流减少而春季径流增加明显.冬春季积雪增加和气温上升,导致融雪洪水增多且洪峰流量增大,使洪水灾害破坏性加大.近些年来气候变暖引起的年内水文过程变化,已经对河流下游的城市供水和农牧业生产产生了影响.