基于GIS的Logistic回归模型在区域滑坡敏感性评价中的应用

本文基于GIS技术和Logistic回归模型进行滑坡敏感性评价定量分析方法,并以江苏省连云港市郊区为研究区域,建立了地质、地形数据库等滑坡因子空间数据库和滑坡空间分布数据库,进行了滑坡影响因子敏感性分析。对连云港市郊区滑坡灾害在空间上的预测结果具有重要的现实意义,对推广应用、防灾减灾具有实际的指导意义。     

基于GIS的Logistic回归模型在区域滑坡敏感性评价中的应用

本文基于GIS技术和Logistic回归模型进行滑坡敏感性评价定量分析方法,并以江苏省连云港市郊区为研究区域,建立了地质、地形数据库等滑坡因子空间数据库和滑坡空间分布数据库,并进行了滑坡影响因子敏感性分析。对连云港市郊区滑坡灾害在空间上的预测结果具有重要的现实意义,对推广应用、防灾减灾具有实际的指导意义。     

粒子群优化BP神经网络的滑坡敏感性评价

滑坡敏感性评价是地质灾害预测预报的关键环节。针对BP神经网络易陷入局部最小值、收敛速度慢等问题,该文以三峡库区秭归县境内为研究区,采用粒子群优化(PSO)算法对BP神经网络的初始权值和阈值进行优化,构建PSO-BP神经网络滑坡敏感性预测模型,实现研究区滑坡敏感性评价。采用受试者工作特征曲线分析模型预测精度,得到PSO-BP神经网络预测精度为0.931,预测结果与实际滑坡总体空间分布具有良好的一致性,且预测能力优于BP神经网络。实验结果表明,PSO-BP神经网络耦合模型在实现滑坡敏感性评价上具有理想的预测精度和良好的适用性。     

基于水文-气象阈值的区域降雨型滑坡预测研究

目前区域降雨型滑坡预测主要依赖降雨阈值开展,然而从降雨诱发滑坡机理可知,除降雨入渗导致的土壤含水量变化外,降雨入渗前的土壤含水量也是影响边坡失稳的重要因素,无法考虑降雨入渗前的土壤湿度情况,被认为是降雨阈值在滑坡预测中表现差的主要原因。针对这一问题,本文以四川省都江堰地区作为试验区域,提出考虑前期土壤湿度的区域降雨型滑坡预测思路,通过统计分析历史滑坡数据,构建了基于前期土壤湿度和近期降雨情况的水文-气象阈值模型,其中前期土壤湿度情况由改进的前期有效降雨指数刻画,近期降雨情况由最近的累积降雨量表示。试验结果表明:在试验区域的降雨型滑坡预测中,水文-气象阈值模型表现出较好的命中率和较低的误报率。本文构建的水文-气象阈值模型,可同时考虑前期土壤湿度和近期降雨对滑坡发生的影响,模型所需数据少、所用方法简单易操作且预测性能较优,适合在区域降雨型滑坡预测中推广应用。     

改进灰色GM(1,1)模型在滑坡预测中的应用

滑坡形成因素复杂,具有典型的灰色不确定性。为研究滑坡发展趋势,在已有滑坡预测技术的基础上,分析了典型灰色GM(1,1)模型在运算过程的误差原因,建立了改进灰色GM(1,1)模型;并运用滑坡实例验证了改进模型,直观显示曲线拟合情况。结果表明,改进后的模型预测精度等级明显提高,相对误差减小;说明所建滑坡预测模型效果好,在滑坡位移预测中有效可行。     

GIS辅助下滑坡灾害危险性区划图的绘制——以四川省攀枝花市为例

以四川省攀枝花地区为研究区域,选取高程、坡度、坡向、土地利用类型、地层岩性、道路交通、河流水系7个影响因子为评价指标,将上述指标作为栅格数据输入,并选择历史滑坡灾害点的影响因子数据作为样本,建立Logistic回归方程,进行回归方程和回归系数的显著性检验,最后利用回归方程对研究区滑坡危险性进行预测,编制滑坡危险性区划分布图。结果表明,逻辑回归方法得到的危险性分区图中,极高和高危险区包含了83%的已知滑坡灾害,攀枝花地区滑坡危险性较高的区域占到区域总面积的将近50%,主要分布在中部和南部人口比较集中的地区,与滑坡的发生受人类工程活动的影响比较吻合。     

滑坡位移EEMD-SVR预测模型

滑坡位移预测是滑坡灾害实时监测预警的重要组成部分,良好的滑坡位移预测模型有助于预测地质灾害发生。滑坡变形受多种外界因素影响呈现出随机性和非线性的特点,在现有的滑坡位移预测方法中,机器学习方法在滑坡位移预测中得到了广泛的应用。针对滑坡位移预测是趋势项位移和周期项叠加的特点,本文研究采用基于集成经验模态分解(EEMD)的滑坡趋势项和周期项位移提取方法,结合支持向量回归(SVR)模型实现对滑坡的位移预测。首先,详细介绍了该模型的构建过程和预测性能,并以均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)和决定系数(R²)作为评估模型的预测性能指标。然后,分别利用EEMD-SVR、SVR、Elman模型对贵州省岩溶山区的一处滑坡进行位移预测,结果表明,EEMD-SVR模型连续1 d预测的RMSE值、MAPE值和R²值分别为0.648 mm、0.518%和0.996 8,可以提供更高可靠的滑坡位移预测精度,对同类滑坡的位移预测具有一定的参考价值。     

多元自适应回归样条法的滑坡敏感性评价

针对一般滑坡敏感性评价方法不能有效筛选滑坡条件因子的问题,以中国新疆维吾尔自治区新源县为研究区,基于15个滑坡敏感性条件因子,利用多元自适应回归样条法构建了滑坡敏感性指数预测模型,并自动筛选出研究区滑坡敏感性条件因子,在此基础上,实现了新源滑坡敏感性制图。此外,使用逻辑回归方法与多元自适应回归样条法进行精度对比分析。结果显示,采用多元自适应回归样条法构建的滑坡敏感性模型精度优于逻辑回归,其成功率曲线的精度为0.945 4,预测率曲线的精度为0.923 8。同时,模型还筛选出新源县滑坡重要影响条件因子(高程、坡度、降雨量、距断层距离、归一化差分植被指数、平面曲率、岩组)。研究表明,利用多元自适应回归样条构建的新源县滑坡敏感性模型是滑坡预测的有效方法,可为防灾减灾提供决策支持。     

一种抑制边界效应的EMD方法及其在滑坡监测中的应用

滑坡位移序列的正确分解对滑坡的预测、预警有重要影响。经验模态分解是一种常用的时间序列分解方法,但该方法在分解过程中存在端点效应,建立的预测模型端点发散,导致预测误差出现较大偏差。为此,本文基于函数延拓的原理对经典经验模态分解方法进行改进,提出一种抑制端点效应的经验模态分解方法,利用金沙江白格滑坡数据对改进方法进行分析验证。试验结果表明,改进方法的端点效应抑制效果良好,预测精度较经典方法有一定的提高。     

复杂植被山区滑坡蠕变与植被覆盖度关系研究

针对目前复杂植被山区滑坡蠕变监测受植被覆盖影响较大、不同植被覆盖度下滑坡蠕变关系研究缺乏等问题,该文联合Sentinel-1和ALOS PALSAR-2数据集,分别利用SBAS-InSAR和D-InSAR两轨差分技术,获取研究区2019年7月—2020年8月的雷达视线向形变时间序列,分析了复杂植被山区滑坡蠕变与植被覆盖度的内在关系。结果表明：(1)不同植被覆盖度等级对平寨水库库岸山区滑坡蠕变的影响具有显著差异,在低、中高和高植被覆盖度等级时诱发坡体沉降,在中植被覆盖度等级时抑制滑坡蠕变;(2)平寨水库库岸山区的滑坡蠕变体主要集中在库区NW-SE方向,分布与三岔河流域的流向相近;(3)联合多源数据对复杂植被山区滑坡蠕变进行组合探测能够有效克服时间、空间去相干影响,使滑坡蠕变体监测结果更为可靠。研究结果揭示了滑坡蠕变与植被覆盖的内在联系,可以为区域尺度防灾减灾事业提供科学支持。     

GIS-based ordered weighted averaging and Dempster–Shafer methods for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Urmia Lake Basin,Iran

In this paper, GIS-based ordered weighted averaging (OWA) is applied to landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) for the Urmia Lake Basin in northwest Iran. Nine landslide causal factors were used, whereby the respective parameters were extracted from an associated spatial database. These factors were evaluated, and then the respective factor weight and class weight were assigned to each of the associated factors using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A landslide susceptibility map was produced based on OWA multicriteria decision analysis. In order to validate the result, the outcome of the OWA method was qualitatively evaluated based on an existing inventory of known landslides. Correspondingly, an uncertainty analysis was carried out using the Dempster–Shafer theory. Based on the results, very strong support was determined for the high susceptibility category of the landslide susceptibility map, while strong support was received for the areas with moderate susceptibility. In this paper, we discuss in which respect these results are useful for an improved understanding of the effectiveness of OWA in LSM, and how the landslide prediction map can be used for spatial planning tasks and for the mitigation of future hazards in the study area.     

Landslide inventory validation and susceptibility mapping in the Gerecse Hills,Hungary

Landslides pose a threat to property both in the populated and cultivated areas of the Gerecse Hills (Hungary). The currently available landslide inventory database holds the records from many sites in the area, but the database is out-of-date. Here we address the problem of revising the National Landslides Cadastre landslide inventory database by creating a landslide suscept- ibility map with a multivariate model based on likelihood ratio functions. The model is applied to the TanDEM-X DEM (0.4″ res.), the current landslide inventory of the area, and data acquired from geological maps. By comparing the distributions of four variables in the landslide and non-landslide area with grid computation methods, the model yields landslide susceptibility estimates for the study area. The estimations show to what extent a certain area is similar to the sample areas, therefore, its likelihood to be affected by landslides in the future. The accuracy of the model predictions was checked in the field and compared to the results of our previous study using the SRTM-1 DEM for a similar analysis. The model gave accurate estimates when certain correction measures were applied to the input datasets. The limitations of the model, the input datasets, and the suggested correction measures are also discussed.     

基于InSAR技术和光学遥感的贵州省滑坡早期识别与监测

贵州省因其复杂的地形地貌和强降水等气候特征,滑坡灾害频繁发生。亟需一种可靠的滑坡早期识别和监测方法。传统的滑坡识别和监测方法存在局限性,而InSAR技术在大规模地质灾害监测中具有独特的优势。但是,基于单一地表形变值的滑坡识别结果存在一定的不确定性。因此,本文联合InSAR技术和光学遥感,利用Sentinel-1A雷达卫星影像数据对贵州省六盘水市、铜仁市、贵阳市等地区进行大规模地表形变监测和危险形变区识别;并采用基于NDVI时间序列分析和基于滑坡发育要素的滑坡识别方法对研究区潜在滑坡灾害进行调查。利用InSAR技术对研究区域内重点滑坡（鸡场镇）进行监测,及时掌握滑坡的运动状态。本文方法对贵州省的灾害防治和管理具有重要意义。     

时序InSAR滑坡形变监测与预测的N-BEATS深度学习法——以新铺滑坡为例

滑坡通常发生突然,破坏力巨大,经常造成重大生命安全事故和财产损失。高可靠性、高精度及具有抗差性能的滑坡形变监测预测手段和方法对于国家防灾减灾需求具有切实意义。InSAR技术是一种能够全天时和全天候观测获取高空间分辨率和宽覆盖率影像,高灵敏性捕捉时空维动态变化的监测手段,然而目前应用InSAR时序影像对滑坡区进行滑坡预测的工作仅是凤毛麟角。基于时序InSAR观测结果,本文提出了一种能够有效解决中短期滑坡预测问题的深度学习滑坡预测方法。在三峡新铺滑坡区应用N-BEATS网络模型和Sentinel-1 SAR数据进行形变预测,以均方根误差1.1 mm的预测精度完成了滑坡预测工作,并对预测结果进行了数据结构影响的规律性分析、传统方法效果对比、抗差性评估及置信区间估计等多方位的剖析,结果显示出了其高精度、高可靠性及具有一定抗差能力的突出优势。     

SBAS-InSAR技术与无人机影像融合的滑坡变形监测北大核心CSCD

山体滑坡对人类安全造成严重影响,准确识别滑坡变形对预防滑坡灾害具有重要意义。利用SBAS-InSAR技术可以进行空间连续地表变形监测,但无法精确获取滑坡边界的变化。为了综合监测滑坡,本文首先采用SBAS-InSAR技术与无人机影像结合的滑坡变形监测方法,利用2018年1月1日—2020年12月24日,共计80幅升轨Sentinel-1A SAR影像,进行了VV极化和VH极化数据处理;然后通过SBAS-InSAR技术获取滑坡区地表雷达视线(LOS)方向变形速率,选取了若干变形点进行滑坡体变形时序分析;最后采用无人机获取滑坡影像并提取滑坡边界,分析了滑坡边界的变形。试验结果表明,利用SBAS-InSAR技术获取的滑坡变形和无人机获取的滑坡变形趋势基本吻合,通过该方法可以获取滑坡的综合变形情况,对滑坡活动性的判断具有重要意义。     

基于优化随机森林模型的滑坡易发性评价

以三峡库区沙镇溪镇-泄滩乡为研究区,探索基于最短描述长度原则的信息增益法对滑坡连续型因子进行离散的效果,计算皮尔森系数去除高相关因子。利用信息量法预测的极低、低易发区随机抽取非滑坡样本点。通过迭代计算袋外误差估计确定较优的随机特征及其数目,将优化后的随机森林对研究区滑坡进行易发性评价,并与逻辑回归等方法进行比较。绘制各算法预测结果的接收灵敏度曲线,其中优化后的随机森林预测结果的曲线下面积较高,达91.8%,表明优化随机森林模型在滑坡易发性评价中具有较高的预测能力。     

Approaches for delineating landslide hazard areas using different training sites in an advanced artificial neural network model

The current paper presents landslide hazard analysis around the Cameron area, Malaysia, using advanced artificial neural networks with the help of Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Landslide locations were determined in the study area by interpretation of aerial photographs and from field investigations. Topographical and geological data as well as satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS and image processing. Ten factors were selected for landslide hazard including: 1) factors related to topography as slope, aspect, and curvature; 2) factors related to geology as lithology and distance from lineament; 3) factors related to drainage as distance from drainage; and 4) factors extracted from TM satellite images as land cover and the vegetation index value. An advanced artificial neural network model has been used to analyze these factors in order to establish the landslide hazard map. The back-propagation training method has been used for the selection of the five different random training sites in order to calculate the factor’s weight and then the landslide hazard indices were computed for each of the five hazard maps. Finally, the landslide hazard maps (five cases) were prepared using GIS tools. Results of the landslides hazard maps have been verified using landslide test locations that were not used during the training phase of the neural network. Our findings of verification results show an accuracy of 69%, 75%, 70%, 83% and 86% for training sites 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively. GIS data was used to efficiently analyze the large volume of data, and the artificial neural network proved to be an effective tool for landslide hazard analysis. The verification results showed sufficient agreement between the presumptive hazard map and the existing data on landslide areas.     

Approaches for delineating landslide hazard areas using different training sites in an advanced artificial neural network model

The current paper presents landslide hazard analysis around the Cameron area, Malaysia, using advanced artificial neural networks with the help of Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Landslide locations were determined in the study area by interpretation of aerial photographs and from field investigations. Topographical and geological data as well as satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS and image processing. Ten factors were selected for landslide hazard including: 1) factors related to topography as slope, aspect, and curvature; 2) factors related to geology as lithology and distance from lineament; 3) factors related to drainage as distance from drainage; and 4) factors extracted from TM satellite images as land cover and the vegetation index value. An advanced artificial neural network model has been used to analyze these factors in order to establish the landslide hazard map. The back-propagation training method has been used for the selection of the five different random training sites in order to calculate the factor’s weight and then the landslide hazard indices were computed for each of the five hazard maps. Finally, the landslide hazard maps (five cases) were prepared using GIS tools. Results of the landslides hazard maps have been verified using landslide test locations that were not used during the training phase of the neural network. Our findings of verification results show an accuracy of 69%, 75%, 70%, 83% and 86% for training sites 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively. GIS data was used to efficiently analyze the large volume of data, and the artificial neural network proved to be an effective tool for landslide hazard analysis. The verification results showed sufficient agreement between the presumptive hazard map and the existing data on landslide areas.