Snow avalanche susceptibility evaluation in the central Shaluli Mountains of Tibetan Plateau based on machine learning method北大核心CSCD

Snow avalanches,which are widely and frequently developed at high elevations,seriously threatens the built traffic corridors in the Tibetan Plateau. Susceptibility evaluation of snow avalanche via machine learning model with a high forecast accuracy can be appled to quickly and effectively assess the regional avalanche risk. This paper took the central Shaluli Mountain region as the study area,in which the snow avalanche inventory was established through remote sensing interpretation and field investigation verification. We quantitatively extracted 17 evaluation factors via GIS-based analysis,and these factors were selected through the variance expansion factor（VIF）. Four machine learning models containing SVM,DT,MLP and KNN were used to compile the susceptibility index map of snow avalanches,and kappa coefficient and ROC curve were used to verify the accuracy. The results suggested that the susceptibility indexes obtained from SVM,DT,MLP and KNN were in the range of［0,0. 964］,［0,815］,［0,0. 995］and［0,1］,respectively. The accuracy test results show that these four models all have good prediction accuracy. Among them,the SVM model is the best. The results also indicated that the areas with the high snow avalanche susceptibility mainly distributed in Genie Mountain and Rigong Mountain,most of which were above the planation surface of the Tibetan Plateau. The average altitude of the extremely high snow-avalanche-prone areas is 4 939 m,while the average altitude of the high snow avalanche-prone areas is 4 859 m. The snow avalanche has low perniciousness on the Sichuan-Tibet Highway and the Sichuan-Tibet Railway in the study area. This study can provide theoretical basis and method reference for disaster prevention and mitigation of snow avalanche along Sichuan-Tibet Railway and other major projects across Shaluli Mountains region. © 2022 Science Press (China).     

Spatiotemporal Changes of Vegetation Cover in Response to Climate Change on the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau is one of the most important ecological barriers in China.Resolving the internal relations and dynamics ruling the association between regional vegetation and climate change is important to understand and protect the regional ecosystems.Based on vegetation,temperature and precipitation data of the Tibetan Plateau from 2001 to 2010,we analyze the spatial and temporal variations of vegetation cover over the past 10 years and discuss the vegetation response to climate change using empirical orthogonal function and singular value decomposition.Our results reveal the following：（1） vegetation cover gradually decreases from the southeast to the northwest of the Tibetan Plateau; （2） vegetation cover has increased on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 10 years,mainly in the central and eastern zones; and （3） a significant positive relationship was suggested between vegetation cover during growing season and the temperature in the entire region and with precipitation in the central and southern zones.     

On the Geodynamic Mechanism of Episodic Uplift of the Tibetan Plateau during the Cenozoic Era

Multi-stage uplift of the Tibetan Plateau during the Cenozoic implies a complex geodynamic process.In this paper,we review main geodynamic models for the uplift of the plateau,and,in particular,analyze the spatio-temporal framework of the Cenozoic deformation structures,which are closely related to the deep geodynamic mechanism for the plateau uplift.From this perspective,significant change of the deformation regime over the Tibetan Plateau occurred by the middle-late Miocene,while thrust and thrust-folding system under NS compression was succeded by extension or stress-relaxation.Meanwhile,a series of large-scale strike-slip faults commenced or was kinemtically reversed.Based on a systematic synthesis of the structure deformation,magmatism,geomorphological process and geophysical exploration,we propose a periodical model of alternating crustal compression and extension for episodic uplift of the Tibetan Plateau.     

Changes in surface soil mositure during freeze-thaw process under different vegetated status using Sentinel-1A in Beiluhe北大核心CSCD

Beiluhe basin lies in a permafrost region where is located in the interior of Tibetan Plateau. Ecosystem in the area is subjected to the freeze-thaw process of the active tjaele,and there is conspicuous correlation between soil moisture（SM）and vegetation coverage. To retrieve the soil moisture content of Beiluhe basin with a total area of 2 037. 94 km2,a synergistic method,which combined improved water cloud model,Oh,Dubois and Topp model,was presented in this paper base on Sentinel-1A multi-polarization SAR and Landsat-8 time series images data. The accuracy was validated with the in-situ point SM data：Adjusted-R2 of the regression equation is 0. 6848,and RMSE is 0. 039 cm3·cm-3. The analysis of correlation among freeze-thaw process,SM and vegetation cover from macro watershed scale manifests：Vegetation coverage has a significant delayed effect on the freeze-thaw process of the active tjaele,that is,the higher vegetation coverage,the more lagging freeze-thaw time;These study results are basically consistent with predecessors in-situ observation data,verifying the feasibility of studying correlation among soil freeze-thaw process,SM,and vegetation coverage from the macro watershed scale based on Sentinel-1A annual time series data. © 2022 Science Press (China).     

Spatiotemporal distribution of snow cover and its variation in the upper reaches of the Taolai River basin，Qilian Mountains北大核心CSCD

Snow is an important part of the cryosphere and plays an important role in the hydrological cycle and energy balance. Study of the spatiotemporal characteristics of snow cover and its change is the prerequisite for analyzing the formation,distribution and variation of runoff from mountains in inland river basins. In this study,we selected the upper reaches of the Taolai River basin of Qilian Mountains as the study area,used down⁃ scaling methods to obtain high-resolution snow depth data,and adopted methods of spatial statistics,sensitivity analysis and contribution separations to quantify snow cover distribution and variation influenced by terrain and the regional climate during the time period from 2002 to 2018. Results showed that basin early average snow depth ranged from 0 cm to 2. 5 cm,with variation from -0. 19 cm·a-1 to 0. 06 cm·a-1. The area of snow depth re⁃ duction during the study period accounted for 68. 30% of the total area. It was found that the snow depth increase more with altitude and less with the increase of slope. Variation of snow depth increased below 2 500 m a. s. l. and decreased above 2 500 m a. s. l. As the slope increases,it first increases and then decreases;the snow depth of each aspect decreases,especially in the northwest orientation. The sensitivity of snow depth to air tempera⁃ ture and solar radiation were found negative in general,while that of the precipitation was found positive. The precipitation in high-altitude areas has a relatively large contribution to the snow depth variation,while in the val⁃ ley areas,the contribution of temperature to snow cover is more significant. This work provides an example for the study of snow dynamics in the upper reaches of inland river watersheds,and benefits model simulation and prediction of mountain runoff and regional water management. © 2023 The Author(s).     

The Sedimentary Record in Northern Qaidam Basin and its Response to the Uplift of the South Qilian Mountain at around 30 Ma

The thick, Eocene to Pliocene, sedimentary sequence in Qaidam Basin at the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau records the surface uplift history of the northeastern Tibetan plateau. In this study, we present detailed geochemistry, heavy mineral, and clay mineralogy data of the well preserved sedimentary record in the Dahongou section in the northeast of the Qaidam Basin. The results suggest that the sedimentary sequence recorded a 30 Ma young uplift/unroofing event in the northern edge of the Qaidam Basin, which is characterized by high ZTR index value and chlorite content, and low CIW`. The results are consistent with previous sedimentological studies of the Qaidam Basin, which indicated rapid increase of the accumulation rates around 30 Ma. Based on past thermochronological data from the mountains around the Qaidam Basin and the accumulation rates of the Cenozoic basins in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, we infer a regional uplift and denudation event along the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during early Oligocene (～30 Ma), indicating that the Tibetan Plateau had expanded north-eastward of the study area at that time.     

Early Miocene Paleoaltitude of the Tuotuohe Basin, Central-Northern Tibetan Plateau and its Tectonic Implications

Reconstruction of the paleoaltitude history of the Tibetan Plateau is critical for understanding the linkage between tectonics and its effect on regional and global climate change. Presently, most of the paleoaltitude studies are concentrated on the southern and southeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau, and few studies have been conducted in the central-northern part. In this paper we focused on the Wudaoliang Formation in the Tuotuohe Basin, central to northern Tibetan Plateau, to reconstruct paleoaltitude based on carbonate oxygen isotopes. The carbonate samples are primary or have experienced an early stage of digenesis. Based on the thermodynamic and empirical model results, the paleoaltitude of the Wudaoliang Formation is found to be around 2700–3260 m (average of 2980 ± 280 m) in the early Miocene (~24 Ma). Integrating paleoaltitude results from Wudaoliang Basin and our results, we conclude that crustal shortening and tectonic activity were strong during the late Eocene to late Oligocene-early Miocene and relatively weak during the early Miocene in the central-northern Tibetan Plateau.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987111001319

The microbial diversity in Wuli Area,Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau was investigated using 16S rRNA gene phylogenetic analyses.A total of 117 bacterial and 66 archaeal 16S rRNA gene clones were obtained from the Wuli cold springs.The bacterial clones could be classified into Pwteobacteria,Acidobacteria, Deinococci,Sphingobacteria,Flavobacteria.Nitrospirae,Actinobacteria,Gemmatimonadetes, and unclassified-bacteria;and the archaeal clones could be classified into Crenarchaeota and Thaumarchaeota.Among the major groups,Pwteobacteria and Crenarchaeota were dominant in the bacterial and archaeal 16S rRNA gene clone libraries,respectively.The clone sequences obtained in Wuli cold springs were closely related to those from cold habitats,such as snow/ice/soils on high mountains or at high latitude.Especially,the microbial community composition of Wuli Area was more similar to that in Tibetan glaciers than cold environments of other locations.The data presented in this study have implications for a better understanding of microbial diversity in cold springs on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.     

The rapidly shrinking cryopshere in the past decade：an interpretation of cryospheric changes from IPCC WGI Sixth Assessment Report北大核心CSCD

The Working Group I report of the Sixth Assessment Report（AR6）of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change（IPCC）was released in August 2021. Base on updated and expanding data, AR6 presented the improved assessment of past changes and processes of cryosphere. AR6 also predicted the future changes us⁃ ing the models in CMIP6. The components of cryosphere were rapid shrinking under climate warming in the last decade. There were decreasing trends in Arctic sea-ice area and thickness. Sea-ice loss was significant. The Greenland Ice Sheet, the Antarctic Ice Sheet and all glaciers lost more mass than in any other decade. Global warming over the last decades had led to widespread permafrost warming, active layer thickness increasing and subsea permafrost extent reducing. Snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere also decreased significantly. However, the variations of snow depth and snow water equivalent showed great spatial heterogeneity. The rapid shrinking of the cryosphere accelerated the global mean sea level rise. The impact of human activities on cryo⁃ sphere will become more significant in the future. The Arctic sea-ice area will decrease, and the Arctic Ocean will likely become practically sea ice-free. The Greenland Ice Sheet, the Antarctic Ice Sheet and glaciers will continue to lose mass throughout this century. Permafrost and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent will con⁃ tinue to decrease as global climate continues to warm. In addition, there are still uncertainties in the prediction of cryosphere due to the absence of observations, the poor sensitivity of models to the components and processes of cryosphere, and the inexplicit represent of the mechanism of light-absorbing impurities. More attentions should be paid on these issues in the future. © 2022 Science Press (China). All rights reserved.     

青藏高原多年冻土区地温监测结果分析

Ground temperatures monitored at four observation sites in permafrost regions on the Tibetan Plateau was analyzed. It was found that the ground temperature at the depth of 12～20 m increased 0.2～0.4 K and the permafrost thickness decreased 4～5 m from the base in Xidatan Site from 1975 to 1989; and the ground temperature at the depth of 6～15 m increased 0.2～0.4 K in Kunlun Pass Site from 1982 to 1997. Contrast observations show that a sand cover, 15～20 cm in depth, can result in a ground temperature decrease of 0.1～ 0.2 K in MS66 Site; and a removal of vegetation can result in a ground temperature decrease of some 0.2 K in Hoh Xil Site. The monitor demonstrates that many factors that control permafrost developing have duality, e.g., sand and vegetation are able to increase or decrease the ground temperature. These factors, in conjunction with permafrost behaviour, play different roles under different conditions. Therefore, it is necessary to study, understand and evaluate permafrost and its engineering geological properties taking the viewpoint of dynamic variation.     

MODIS逐日积雪产品去云算法研究

由于积雪和云的反射特性, 使用光学遥感监测积雪受到天气的严重干扰, 对研究区云量的分析表明, 无论是MOD10A1还是MYD10A1, 云都是影响该产品对研究区积雪进行实时监测的最大影响因素. 综合不同去云方法, 利用MODIS逐日积雪产品和被动微波数据AMSR-E雪水当量产品, 生成了MODIS逐日无云积雪图像, 并利用研究区85个地面气象观测台站提供的雪深数据对合成的单日无云积雪产品进行验证. 结果表明: 当积雪深度>3 cm时, 新产品的积雪分类精度达到91.7%, 该产品对实时监测青藏高原积雪动态变化具有重要的使用价值.     

基于MODIS的青藏高原逐日无云积雪产品算法

青藏高原积雪对高亚洲地区水和能量循环起着重要的反馈和调节作用,其变化影响着融雪性河流流量,对下游水资源和经济活动具有重要影响。中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）具有较高的时空分辨率,被广泛应用于积雪遥感动态监测,然而光学遥感积雪受云层影响严重,且青藏高原地区水汽分布不均,局地对流活跃,积雪的赋存时间变化快,这给高原地区逐日积雪监测及其气候学制图带来挑战。在考虑青藏高原地形和积雪分布特征情况下,结合现有的云覆盖下积雪判别算法,采用8个不同方法的组合,逐步实现MODIS逐日无云积雪算法。选取2009年10月1日-2011年4月30日两个积雪季为研究期,并采用145个地面台站观测雪深数据对去云算法各步骤过程开展精度验证,结果表明：当积雪深度>3 cm时,逐日无云积雪产品总分类精度达到96.6%,积雪分类精度达83%,积雪判对概率（召回率）达到89.0%,算法可实现青藏高原地区逐日无云积雪动态监测和积雪覆盖气候学数据重建,对高亚洲地区的水、生态和灾害等全球环境变化影响研究具有重要的意义。     

中国稳定积雪区IMS雪冰产品精度评价

IMS雪冰产品由多种光学与微波传感器数据融合而成,提供北半球每日无云的积雪范围,在积雪遥感研究中具有广阔的前景. 以气象站实测雪深数据为真值,检验了2009-2010年IMS雪冰产品在中国三大稳定积雪区北疆、东北、青藏高原地区每月、积雪季以及全年的误判率、漏判率和总体准确率,并分析了IMS雪冰产品的准确率与雪深之间的关系. 结果显示：IMS雪冰产品的年总体准确率在三大积雪区均超过了92%,积雪季总体准确率均超过了88%,利用IMS雪冰产品监测积雪范围是可靠的. 然而,IMS雪冰产品精度具有区域差异性,北疆地区在1月和2月误判率偏高,青藏高原地区积雪季有严重的漏判现象. IMS雪冰产品的准确率在东北地区和北疆地区随着雪深的增加而升高,当东北地区雪深超过6 cm,北疆地区超过13 cm时,准确率接近100%,但是,青藏高原地区两者基本没有关系. 通过在青藏高原地区与同时相的4景MODIS积雪产品对比分析发现,实际上IMS雪冰产品相对地高估了积雪面积,青藏高原地区漏判率高其原因是IMS对零碎积雪的识别能力不足并且气象站分布不均匀.     

基于不同土地覆盖类型NDSI阈值优化下的青藏高原积雪判别

美国国家雪冰数据中心（NSIDC）发布的MODIS第6版本逐日积雪范围产品（V6）仅提供了归一化积雪指数（NDSI）,而用户往往关心的是积雪范围或积雪覆盖率。NSIDC推荐全球积雪范围最佳的NDSI阈值为0.4,但是青藏高原地形复杂,积雪斑块化特征明显,单一的NDSI阈值并不能精确地判识不同下垫面上的积雪。不同的土地覆盖类型可能影响积雪判别的NDSI阈值。以青藏高原为研究对象,基于高分辨率卫星Landsat-5 TM数据,获取了青藏高原不同土地覆盖类型下判识积雪的最优NDSI阈值。结果表明,在草地和稀疏植被地表类型下,最优NDSI阈值分别为0.33和0.40;在其他下垫面类型下,最优NDSI阈值为0.47。以Landsat 8 OLI数据为"真值"对该NDSI阈值确定的积雪范围进行了精度检验。结果表明,采用新的NDSI阈值获取的MOD10A1 V6积雪范围产品的总体精度OA、错分误差OE和漏分误差UE分别为87.88%、5.20%和6.87%。而采用传统的0.4阈值时,其OA、OE和UE分别为87.36%、3.98%和8.60%。这表明考虑不同土地覆盖类型下的NDSI阈值优化可以有效地提高青藏高原积雪判别精度,特别是对占比面积较大的草地区域,通过NDSI阈值优化可以更加准确地识别积雪范围。     

NOAA IMS雪冰产品在青藏高原积雪监测中的适用性分析

在系统评估青藏高原积雪观测典型气象站历史定位坐标精度基础上,利用站点雪深资料对NOAA IMS 4 km和1 km分辨率雪冰产品在青藏高原的精度和适用性进行了验证和评估,定量分析了IMS 4 km到1 km空间分辨率提高和气象站历史定位与GPS定位坐标之间的差异对青藏高原IMS积雪监测精度的影响。结果表明：青藏高原个别气象站历史坐标与当前GPS接收机定位之间存在较大的差异,如安多气象站经度偏小0.6°,纬度偏大0.08°。IMS 4 km雪冰产品在青藏高原的总精度介于76.4%~83.2%,平均为80.1%,积雪分类精度介于35.8%~60.7%,平均为47.2%,平均误判率为17.1%,平均漏判率为45.5%,总体上呈现地面观测的积雪日数越多、平均雪深越大,其总体监测精度越低,而积雪分类精度越高的特点。IMS分辨率从4 km到1 km总体精度平均提高了2.9%,积雪分类精度平均提高了0.9%,主要是由于个别站点的精度提升较大引起的,对高原多数台站积雪监测精度的改进和提升很小。除个别台站外,目前气象站历史坐标和GPS定位坐标之间的差异,对IMS 4 km积雪监测精度验证结果没有影响。然而,今后随着卫星遥感技术的发展,更高时空分辨率的遥感积雪产品将用于积雪监测和研究,精确的地面观测站坐标信息是对这些遥感数据开展精度验证与实际应用的前提。     

基于MODIS双卫星积雪遥感数据的积雪日数空间分布研究

结合Terra和Aqua卫星的积雪产品,获取2001-2006年全国新的逐日积雪覆盖数据,并利用此数据通过两种方案获取了全国积雪日数分布,对比发现3大稳定积雪区中,新疆地区积雪稳定性及连续性最好,东北其次,而青藏高原地区最差;通过595个气象台站年积雪日数数据分区分不同植被类型修正MODIS获得的年积雪日数.结果表明:...     

基于HJ-1B卫星数据的积雪面积制图算法研究

积雪是影响气候变化的重要因子, 采用更高时空分辨率的环境减灾卫星遥感数据进行积雪制图算法的研究, 对推进我国自主遥感卫星在积雪监测领域的应用具有重要意义. 采用环境减灾HJ-1B卫星数据, 以青海省果洛藏族自治州达日县为研究区, 应用归一化差值积雪指数(NDSI)法建立了基于HJ-1B卫星数据的积雪面积制图算法, 并比较MODIS与HJ-1B积雪图精度. 结果表明: 研究区HJ-1B积雪制图合理的NDSI阈值为0.37, 总分类精度达到97.97%; 与"真值"影像比较, HJ-1B积雪图K_hat系数为0.911, 高于MODIS的0.817. 说明该研究建立的基于HJ-1B积雪制图算法精度可靠, 适合对研究区积雪进行实时动态监测. HJ-1B更高的空间分辨率对提高研究区积雪覆盖面积监测精度具有重要的使用价值, 但是地形因素是影响HJ-1B数据积雪分类精度的一个重要原因, 随着坡度的增加, 分类误差也随之增大, 尤其是多测误差增加比较显著.     

基于MODIS的青藏高原季节性积雪去云方法可行性比较研究

青藏高原地处中纬度地区,季节性积雪分布破碎,地面观测站点稀少,中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）可为该地区提供每日积雪监测数据,然而云是光学遥感最大的影响因素,为研究MODIS每日积雪产品去云方法在青藏高原的适用性,根据原理将去云方法归纳总结为五大类,并对每种方法的“潜在假设”开展分析讨论。结果显示：基于时间连续性的方法适用性强,去云效果明显,上下午积雪连续的平均概率为72.5%,而2~5d的连续积雪的概率为5.6%~43%不等,可靠性差;临近像元法可去除零散分布的云,平均正确率达到95.5%,但去除云量较少;基于高程的去云算法在山区适用性好,而在高原腹地由于坡度较小而错判概率较大;采用被动微波遥感数据进行去云则依赖于微波对云的识别率,往往误差较大;采用数学方法拟合积雪边界在积雪破碎、降雪融雪较快的青藏高原地区,物理意义较弱。通过分析研究表明,青藏高原地区MODIS日积雪产品的去云,需综合多种算法的区域适用性,充分考虑青藏高原地形及积雪本身的特征,逐步完善每日积雪去云工作。     

MODIS LST产品青藏高原冻土图的精度验证

利用遥感数据可以大大提高青藏高原多年冻土分类和制图效率,并降低在环境恶劣、地形复杂的高寒区域所需的观测要求,从而避免人力和物力的巨大消耗。为了验证基于MODIS LST产品制作的青藏高原冻土图的精度,通过选取青藏高原东部的温泉区域和西北部的西昆仑山地区对1：400万青藏高原冻土图、1：300万青藏高原冻土图、基于MODIS LST产品青藏高原冻土图进行综合验证,以此评估基于MODIS LST产品的青藏高原冻土图精度。结果表明,利用遥感数据制作的青藏高原冻土图较已有冻土图能够更好反映多年冻土的空间分布特征,同时存在差异的地方大多是多年冻土与季节冻土过渡的边缘区域,形成原因主要是制图时间差异,此外还有坡度、坡向、植被、积雪等多重因素的综合影响。     

祁连山区MODIS积雪反照率产品的精度验证及云下积雪反照率估算研究

积雪反照率在全球气候和能量收支平衡模型中起着重要的作用. 利用祁连山地区大冬树垭口站点反照率实测数据对由TM/ETM+得到的反照率数据进行标定, 然后将TM/ETM+反照率数据通过升尺度对MODIS逐日积雪反照率(SAD)产品在晴空条件下的精度进行了验证. 同时, 发展了一个基于MODIS SAD与AMSR-E SWE数据融合并结合Noah积雪反照率参数化方案估算MODIS SAD数据云下积雪反照率的算法, 通过统计分析纠正了云对积雪反照率的影响, 对云下积雪反照率进行了验证分析. 结果表明:MODIS SAD产品在祁连山地区的精度要低于大面积积雪覆盖的平坦地区(如格陵兰岛), 其平均绝对误差及均方根误差分别为0.0548和0.0727; 云下积雪反照率估算方法可以有效地获取云覆盖下积雪像元的反照率值, 纠正后的无云MODIS SAD数据与地面观测值有较好的一致性, 其平均绝对误差为0.078.