地形对中尺度边界急流的影响

本文研究了两层流的浅水波模式,并考虑了地形的作用,当背景场为大尺度经向地转流υ_g时,在山地或海岸附近可以形成一类中尺度边界层急流,其特征宽度为Lc=L_0C_0/(υ_g+β_g~*/2f),式中 c_0=(g~*H)~(1/2),L_0=c_0/f为Rossby变形半径,β=-h_s/x为地形坡度。当地转流和山脉坡度满|υ_g+β_g~*/f|>c_0时,中尺度边界层急流中的惯性重力波可以产生超高速不稳定。对于向北的地转流(υ_g>0),山脉东坡有利于形成强而窄的边界层急流和出现超高速不稳定。对于向南的地转流(υ_g<0),在山脉的西坡也会出现同样的情形。     

台风艾云尼非对称降水及动热力结构演变特征分析

台风艾云尼（1804号）第2次登陆广东过程中降水表现出显著的非对称分布,强降水主要位于其路径前进方向的右侧（简称台风右侧）。利用欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA5再分析资料、广东风廓线雷达观测资料以及降水观测资料,对造成非对称降水的环流背景和动力、热力结构演变特征进行了分析。结果表明:艾云尼左右两侧水汽输送及动力、热力条件差异是造成降水非对称的主要原因。加强的低空急流以及台风马力斯（1805号）水汽的输送为台风右侧强降水的产生提供了更好的水汽背景,而低空急流的加强配合高空强的辐散抽吸使得右侧垂直上升运动也明显大于左侧。边界层内强盛的低空急流以及珠江三角洲地区下垫面强摩擦辐合作用导致艾云尼右前侧径向入流强度更强、强入流层厚度更厚、边界层高度更高,且由于距离台风眼墙越近风速越大,上述现象越明显,为强降水的产生提供的动力和水汽条件越好。强降水期间艾云尼右侧低层大气维持不稳定状态,分析表明强低空急流携带的θ_se平流及其随高度的减弱弥补了强降水造成的能量损耗,是不稳定能量维持的重要原因。      

一维气候时间序列的李亚普诺夫指数所显示的动态系统的演化特征

本文利用广州1873—1980年共108年的月平均气温时间序列资料,在拓展了的三维相空间中,用Wolf的方法,求出了在不同参数条件下的李亚普诺夫指数λ₁。从中发现,对每一组参数,均得到λ_1,2>0（其中λ₁>λ₂）,λ₃<0。这说明我国季风区短期气候演化存在着浑沌吸引子,因而气候应该分享经历着浑沌力学行为的体系所具有的那种本征的演化特征。      

甘肃河西走廊春季强沙尘暴与低空急流

使用NCEP/NCAR全球再分析网格点资料(2.5°×2.5°纬度/经度)和我国区域性沙尘暴过程历史资料,分析了春季大气环流特征及低空急流与甘肃河西走廊春季强沙尘暴的关系。结果表明,在东亚中纬度高空维持纬向强急流锋区的情况下,极易造成甘肃河西走廊春季强沙尘暴的低空急流产生。揭示了沙尘暴形成的大尺度环流动力影响因子的事实,指出可将产生这种低空急流特征的西风带大型环流的调整过程,作为甘肃河西走廊春季强沙尘暴天气的预警信号,而低空急流的位置及强度又可作为沙尘暴强度及沙尘暴发生和影响区的预报指标。     

环渤海近海岸雾产生的天气条件及边界层特征分析

利用渤海沿岸微波辐射计、风廓线雷达、四分量辐射仪和超声风速仪等多种观测反演资料,并结合常规站点气象资料,卫星云图,浮标气象水文观测和FNL（Final）再分析资料研究了2016年12月17~19日一次环渤海大雾个例产生的天气水文条件以及边界层垂直分层的辐射和湍流特征。研究发现:（1）此次大雾出现在大陆低压前部、入海高压后部的西南低空急流控制区域,与强急流相伴的暖湿平流输送为雾区提供了稳定的逆温和持续的水汽积累,非常有利于大雾天气的形成;（2）水汽通量的分布与低空急流的移动密切相关,近地面比湿的增速与低空急流的强度成正比;（3）由于低空急流的水汽输送增湿了环渤海低层大气,从而增强了大气辐射的衰减效应,导致雾形成前向下短波辐射逐渐减小,向下长波辐射不断增加,净辐射在大雾形成后趋近于零;（4）逆温有效抑制了湍流的发展,近地层湍流动能和摩擦速度微弱。     

"02.6"陕南大暴雨的结构及成因分析

通过诊断分析发现:(1)“02.6”强降水与6月上旬越赤道气流和季风爆发密切相关,携带大量水汽的偏南气流与冷空气于6月8日交汇在西北地区东部,导致了这次强降水的发生;(2)与暴雨区相联系,存在横越低空急流的经向垂直环流,暴雨区处于该垂直环流的上升支;(3)偏南和偏东气流水汽通道在西北地区东部交汇,水汽的辐合积聚主要在对流层低层和行星边界层内完成;(4)整层的视热源高值区在暴雨区附近呈东北—西南向分布,与切变线走向非常一致,降水产生的凝结潜热释放是强降水区大气的主要热源。同时,在大尺度上升运动区中低层存在一个条件对称不稳定建立的机制,使得在暴雨区,既存在深厚的热力不稳定机制,又存在水汽输入机制和热力不稳定的触发机制,从而形成强暴雨。     

锦州地区强降雪过程低空急流特征分析

利用常规气象观测资料、EC再分析资料,统计分析2005—2021年锦州地区强降雪天气过程(24 h降雪量超过5 mm)气候特征及不同天气形势下低空急流特征,并对强降雪发生发展期间低空急流演变特征进行对比。结果表明：锦州地区强降雪年均1.6次,出现在11月至翌年3月,11月最多,1月无强降雪;空间上呈现南北多、中间少的分布特征。锦州地区强降雪天气形势主要包括华北气旋北上型、江淮气旋北上型和蒙古气旋东移型3类,江淮气旋北上型最多(占51.85%),蒙古气旋东移型次之(占37.04%),华北气旋北上型最少(占11.11%)。不同天气形势下,低空急流所提供的水汽和能量是锦州地区强降雪发生的关键。从急流强度看,蒙古气旋东移型急流最强,为20 m·s^-1;其次华北气旋北上型,为14 m·s^-1;江淮气旋北上型急流为12 m·s^-1。从急流范围看,蒙古气旋东移型急流区范围最大,其次为江淮气旋北上型,华北气旋北上型急流区范围最小。降雪前6 h低空急流均建立,其中96%为偏南或西南急流,4%为偏东急流;降雪前2 h低空急流维持;低空急流影...     

台风榴莲(2001)在季风槽中生成的机制探讨

利用NCEP 1°×1°分析资料、TMI海温资料、卫星云图资料对季风槽中南海台风榴莲(2001)生成机制进行了分析,揭示了大尺度环境流场、温暖洋面、中尺度对流活动对热带气旋(TC)生成的控制作用.结果表明,水平风速垂直切变的演变在一定程度上指示着TC在暖湿洋面上生成的时间,水平风速垂直切变由强向弱转变,在TC发生前18小时迅速减小到10 m/s,随后在10 m/s以下维持少变,垂直切变的变化主要反映了对流层高层环流形势的演变;在对流层中低层,季风槽的形成和加强对TC的生成有重要作用,由于热带温暖洋面作用,季风槽首先表现出有利于单体对流和带状对流发生发展的条件性对流不稳定特征,随着季风槽的加强,季风槽进一步表现出有利于中尺度扰动发生发展的正压不稳定特征;季风槽槽线南侧的低空急流的经向分布很宽广,由105°E越赤道气流和中南半岛偏西气流(其源头是索马里越赤道低空急流)汇合而成,急流的加强活动具有经向差异,由于边界层高θ_e空气辐合抬升产生两条经向距离约300 km的显著带状对流云系,槽线南侧风速分布的经向差异导致两条带状云系发生追赶,并逐步在季风槽底部槽线附近合并加强为MCC,进而导致中尺度涡旋(MCV)的产生并最终发展成为TC.分析结果还表明,为深对供应丰富对流有效位能的主要是来自台风发生区域本地南海暖洋面的地面热通量,南海暖洋面对TC生成有重要贡献.台风榴莲的生成是一个多尺度相互作用过程,主要包括涡旋对流热塔、与带状对流云系伴随的涡度带的升尺度,涡度带合并成长为MCV,以及大尺度条件对TC在季风槽中生成的时间及地点的控制作用等.     

珠江三角洲“9·7”极端暴雨精细观测特征及成因

2023年9月7—8日珠江三角洲出现极端特大暴雨(简称“9·7”极端暴雨)。应用多源资料分析该过程的精细化观测特征及成因,结果表明:“9·7”极端暴雨由高层辐散、中层弱引导气流、低层西南季风和台风海葵(2311)残涡共同造成,水平尺度约为100 km的带状中尺度对流复合体长时间维持,列车效应和暖云降水特征显著,雷达回波质心低,最强降水阶段不低于45 dBZ的强回波质心位于4 km高度以下,不低于30 dBZ的强回波在深圳持续时间长达21 h。该天气过程以中小雨滴为主且数浓度较大,当降水强度大于20 mm·h^-1时,雨滴粒径增大但数浓度明显降低。“9·7”极端暴雨持续时间、强度和落区与边界层低空急流脉动、急流核区位置对应很好,强降水出现在低空急流指数迅速加强后的1～2 h内,低空急流和低空急流指数变化对强降水具有重要指示意义。台风海葵(2311)残涡在珠江三角洲的长时间滞留是此次极端暴雨的天气尺度原因,深厚的边界层低空急流提供了良好的动力和水汽条件,对流风暴的持续生成和维持是此次极端暴雨的直接原因。     

广西和贵州MCC暴雨过程综合分析

利用卫星云图、多普勒雷达资料和高空风等各种天气学资料,对2007年6月8～9日广西、贵州由中尺度对流复合体(MCC)引发的致洪暴雨过程进行了大尺度环境场和物理量的诊断分析.结果表明:MCC是造成暴雨的直接影响系统;低空急流的不连续后退向西发展,为MCC的生成和发展提供了充沛的水汽输送;MCC发生区对流层中低层随高度向西倾斜高能管的形成,维持了MCC发生区大气的对流不稳定性;华北高压底部东北气流带来的冷空气沿青藏高原东侧南下产生的锋生,有利于MCC的形成;对于MCC的生成发展、维持和消亡,在CAPPI(1.5 km)径向速度图上看到:首先有西南低空急流生成,接着在西南低空急流左侧出现气旋性辐合或经向辐合;和类似飑线的强对流云带的东移转向南压配合,生成范围很大的径向强辐散区;低空急流的减弱消失,预示着MCC的减弱或消散.     

An ice breeze mechanism for boundary-layer jets

The existence of a low-level (z=~1000 m) jet adjacent to a sea-ice boundary is investigated with a two-dimensional numerical model. A thermally-direct ice breeze circulation is induced by specifying an ice-sea surface temperature gradient, with the mean geostrophic wind parallel to the ice edge. Pressure changes associated with over-water mixed-layer development create an increase in geostrophic velocity that accounts for most of the increase in wind speed. A change in initial geostrophic wind direction has significant effects on location and intensity of the low-level jet; geostrophic winds parallel to the ice edge result in stronger jets than occur with cross-ice geostrophic winds. An inertial oscillation simulated by the model in 1-D makes a negligible contribution to the low-level jet.     

Perturbations to the Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of the Diurnally-Varying Atmospheric Boundary Layer Due to an Extensive Wind Farm

The effect of extensive terrestrial wind farms on the spatio-temporal structure of the diurnally-evolving atmospheric boundary layer is explored. High-resolution large-eddy simulations of a realistic diurnal cycle with an embedded wind farm are performed. Simulations are forced by a constant geostrophic velocity with time-varying surface boundary conditions derived from a selected period of the CASES-99 field campaign. Through analysis of the bulk statistics of the flow as a function of height and time, it is shown that extensive wind farms shift the inertial oscillations and the associated nocturnal low-level jet vertically upwards by approximately 200 m; cause a three times stronger stratification between the surface and the rotor-disk region, and as a consequence, delay the formation and growth of the convective boundary layer (CBL) by approximately 2 h. These perturbations are shown to have a direct impact on the potential power output of an extensive wind farm with the displacement of the low-level jet causing lower power output during the night as compared to the day. The low-power regime at night is shown to persist for almost 2 h beyond the morning transition due to the reduced growth of the CBL. It is shown that the wind farm induces a deeper entrainment region with greater entrainment fluxes. Finally, it is found that the diurnally-averaged effective roughness length for wind farms is much lower than the reference value computed theoretically for neutral conditions.     

An analytical study of diurnal wind-structure variations in the boundary layer and the low-level nocturnal jet

An analytical framework is proposed for studying variations in the diurnal wind structure in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the evolution of the low-level nocturnal jet. A time-dependent eddy-diffusivity coefficient corresponding to solar input is proposed, and an appropriate coordinate transformation ensures that mixing height varies continuously with ground heat-flux changes. The solution exhibits the receding character of the daytime PBL as evening approaches, thereby dividing the PBL into two regimes — the one just above the ground, representing the nocturnal boundary layer, and the region above it. It is assumed that inertial oscillations (IO) are triggered in the upper layer at about the time of sunset when the reversal in the direction of ground heat flux is felt in the upper layer. Two approaches are adopted to determine the characteristic features of IO and the evolution of the nocturnal low-level jet. The first one is based on the physical principle that release of horizontal momentum due to deviation from the geostrophic wind gives rise to the IO. The solution captures all the characteristic features of the IO, such as phase shift and decreasing amplitude of the IO with increasing height. According to this analysis the IO is triggered at a level as soon as the top of the receding boundary layer leaves that level. The solution is discontinuous with respect to the vertical coordinate. In the second approach we solve an initial-value problem to determine the solution in the upper layer, assuming that at about the time of sunset there is a rapid collapse of the daytime PBL to the steady, nocturnal boundary layer. The assumption is based on the mixing-height profiles prepared from climatological data collected at Delhi. The solution for the nocturnal boundary-layer regime is then obtained as a boundary-value problem. The solutions so obtained are continuous throughout the domain of interest and exhibit the characteristic features of an IO. The analysis leads to the conditions under which a low-level nocturnal jet is produced and provides quantitative estimates of the parameters, such as length of night, latitude, mixing height at sunset and nocturnal mixing height, that are conducive to the generation of a jet. The nocturnal wind profile produced by this approach compares well both with typical atmospheric data observed at Delhi and with output from a mesoscale numerical model. There is still some uncertainty related to the time of initiation of the IO as a function of latitude.     

Large-Eddy Simulation Of The Stably Stratified Planetary Boundary Layer

In this work, we study the characteristics of a stably stratifiedatmospheric boundary layer using large-eddy simulation (LES).In order to simulate the stable planetary boundary layer, wedeveloped a modified version of the two-part subgrid-scalemodel of Sullivan et al. This improved version of themodel is used to simulate a highly cooled yet fairly windy stableboundary layer with a surface heat flux of(W)_o = -0.05 m K s^-1and a geostrophic wind speed of U_g = 15 m s^-1.Flow visualization and evaluation of the turbulencestatistics from this case reveal the development ofa continuously turbulent boundary layer with small-scalestructures. The stability of the boundary layercoupled with the presence of a strong capping inversionresults in the development of a dominant gravity wave atthe top of the stable boundary layer that appears to be relatedto the most unstable wave predicted by the Taylor–Goldsteinequation. As a result of the decay of turbulence aloft,a strong-low level jet forms above the boundary layer.The time dependent behaviour of the jet is compared with Blackadar'sinertial oscillation analysis.     

皖北一次特大暴雨过程中边界层急流日变化特征 及其对暴雨形成的影响分析

利用多普勒雷达风廓线产品、ERA5再分析资料和WRF模式,分析了2018年6月27日皖北一次特大暴雨过程中边界层急流的日变化特征及其对特大暴雨形成的作用。结果表明:特大暴雨发生期间存在边界层急流,急流最强达到了18 m·s^-1,强降水主要发生在急流快速增强的时段;急流前部的边界层辐合线是对流的触发因子,强降水落区位于急流核前部。急流为对流系统加强提供水汽和能量,且边界层急流和雷暴高压对峙使对流系统稳定少动,在对流系统西侧激发新的对流单体,有利于特大暴雨的发生;此次过程中天气系统的影响时间主要决定了强降水的落区,而边界层急流的日变化决定了强降水发生的时间段;边界层急流在夜间具有超地转特征,午后具有次地转特征,地转偏差和水平平流作用是导致夜间边界层急流增强的主要原因。     

Mesoscale nocturnal jetlike winds within the planetary boundary layer over a flat,open coast

Mesoscale nocturnal jetlike winds have been observed over a flat, open coast. They occur within the planetary boundary layer between 100 and 600 m. At times the wind shear may reach 15 m s^-1 per 100 m. Unlike the common low-level jet that occurs most often at the top of the nocturnal inversion and only with a wind from the southerly quadrant, this second kind of jet exists between nocturnal ground-based inversion layers formed by the cool pool, or mesohigh, and the elevated mesoscale inversion layer over the coast. It occurs mostly when light % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaiikaiabgs% MiJkaaiwdacqGHsislcaaI2aGaaeyBaiaabccacaqGZbWaaWbaaSqa% beaacqGHsislcaaIXaaaaOGaaiykaaaa!3FCF!\[( \leqslant 5 - 6{\text{m s}}^{ - 1} )\] geostrophic winds blow from land to sea and when the air temperature over adjacent seas is more than 5 °C warmer than that over the coast. This phenomenon may be explained by combined Venturi and gravity-wind effects existing in a region from just above the area a few kilometres offshore to 100–600 m in height approximately 40–50 km inland because this region is sandwiched between the aforementioned two inversion layers.     

A down-valley low-level jet event during T-REX 2006

A prolonged down-valley flow and low-level jet were observed throughout the Enhanced Observing Period 4 (April 28–29) of the 2006 Terrain-induced Rotor Experiment, held in the Owens Valley of California near the town of Independence. The low-level jet was strongest during the nocturnal hours, and special field observations captured important details of the event lifecycle. High-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting numerical weather prediction model were generated, with underlying assumptions being that model resolution, boundary layer physics, and nesting configuration would be dominant controlling factors in reproducing the jet. The large-scale conditions were dry throughout the event, so moist physics were not a significant forcing consideration. For the control simulation, a two-nest (4.5 and 1.5 km grid spacing) configuration with 90 vertical levels was applied. Additionally, the Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination planetary boundary and surface layer option were selected due to its published performance under conditions of stable stratification. Three other sensitivity simulations were run for comparison, differing from the control just in the choice of vertical resolution (60 versus 90 levels with Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination) and planetary boundary/surface layer physics (90 levels/Mellor-Yamada-Jancic; 90 levels/Yonsei State University). Although the gross evolution (location, height, and timing) of the low-level jet is captured by all model runs (with the 1.5 km inner nest providing the more accurate details), there were at times large underestimations of the nocturnal jet speed max in each simulation (approaching 100 % error, or up to almost 10 m s^?1). Overall, the variations of vertical resolution and planetary boundary/surface physics against the control seemed to (1) yield little overall improvement to statistical or subjective evaluations; (2) do little to improve deficiencies in reproducing the magnitude strength of the nocturnal down-valley low-level jet. Since the cold-start simulations spanned 36 h (including a 12-h spin-up period), it was suspected that the lateral boundary conditions imposed on the outermost 4.5 km nest might negatively impact the interior model solutions in the Owens Valley. To investigate this possibility, an additional simulation was executed by adding two extra nests to the control configuration: an outer 13.5 km and an inner 500 m. This simulation produced a better evolution of the nocturnal low-level jet and especially the speed max. The addition of the larger 13.5 km nest appears more critical to this improvement than that of the extra spatial resolution provided by the inner 500 m nest, which supports the idea that accurate capturing of the large-scale synoptic condition was critical in reproducing important details of this down-valley low-level jet event. The extra 500-m resolution did seem to improve the morning valley cold pool forecast.     

基于CMA-TRAMS集合预报的“5·22”极端降水事件可预报性分析

2020年5月22日珠江三角洲地区出现了一次极端强降水天气,最大滑动小时雨量201.8 mm,3 h雨量达到351 mm。为探讨此次极端强降水的关键预报因子及可预报性,对热带中尺度集合预报系统（CMA-TRAMS（EPS））降水预报产品进行检验评估和敏感性分析,结果表明:与欧洲中期数值预报中心集合预报系统（ECMWF-EPS）相比,CMA-TRAMS（EPS）的好成员对本次过程降水强度及位置的预报结果与实况更接近,但对极端性预报仍有欠缺。好成员的预报能力来自于对低涡和（超）低空急流的演变特征以及两者强度和位置耦合的有效预测。好成员组预报珠江三角洲东部（超）低空急流南风分量较强,有利于低涡缓慢移动和气旋性辐合增强,致使降水持续时间长、效率高。而低涡自身发展又反馈于急流强度变化,好成员组较准确地刻画了增强的低涡环流反馈导致急流小范围加速的耦合特征。其他成员组预报的低涡和（超）低空急流的耦合位置偏东、偏南,辐合强度偏弱,导致降水强度或落区出现偏差。此外,强降水致使冷池形成,并增强激烈的冷、暖气团对峙（水平温度梯度达0.23—0.76℃/km）,有利于中尺度辐合线维持,加强对流后向传播并产生极端降水量。但CMA-TRAMS（EPS）两组成员在预报中尺度系统的组织性和传播特征方面均存在明显不足,限制了集合预报系统对极端降水的预报能力。      

Role of land surface parameterizations on modeling cold-pooling events and low-level jets

Land surface parameterization schemes play a significant role in the accuracy of meso-local scale numerical models by accounting for the exchange of energy and water between the soil and the atmosphere. The role of land surface processes during large-scale cold-pooling events was studied with two land surface schemes (LSMs) in the Advanced Research Weather Forecasting model (ARW). Model evaluation was complex due to the surface and boundary layer interactions at different temporal and spatial scales as revealed by a scale dependent variance analysis. Wavelet analysis was used for the first time to analyze the model errors with specific focus on land surface processes. The ARW model was also evaluated for the formation of a low-level jet (LLJ). It is shown that vertical resolution in the model boundary layer played a significant role in determining the characteristics of LLJ, which influenced the lower boundary layer structure and moisture distribution. The results showed that the simulated low-level jet over southern Georgia was sensitive to the land surface parameterization and led to a significant difference in the boundary layer exchange. The jet shear played a crucial role in the maintenance of turbulence and weak shear caused excessive radiative cooling leading to unrealistic cold pools in the model. The results are important for regional downscaling as the excessive cold pools that are simulated in the model can go unnoticed.