遵义多普勒天气雷达反射率资料的杂波抑制算法研究

基于遵义新一代多普勒天气雷达降水回波和非降水回波特征,选取反射率水平纹理（T）和有高度限制的反射率垂直梯度（V）等参数予以区分,进而剔除非降水回波。选择几个典型的回波个例进行效果检验,结果表明该方法能剔除绝大部分非降水回波,同时对降水回波的强度场没有影响。     

雷达反射率数据质量控制方法初探

地物、超折射等非降水回波是影响雷达定量探测降水和其他产品的重要因素,利用降水和非降水回波反射率三维结构的特征可以对雷达数据进行质量控制。通过对合肥、广州、濮阳、烟台等多部雷达的体扫资料的统计,结果表明：降水和非降水的水平反射率结构（T）和垂直反射率差（V）在反射率的低值和高值区体现出不同的分布特征,因此为这两个判据在反射率低值和高值区设定不同的判别指标。实验表明,此方法可以改善降水和非降水回波的识别效果。     

一种基于FCM算法的雷达反射率基数据的质量控制方案

根据FCM（fuzzy C-means,模糊C均值）算法初步建立了一种适用于我国多普勒天气雷达反射率资料的质量控制方案,对2009年6月3—5日蚌埠、阜阳雷达站部分雷达体扫资料进行统计分析。结果表明,降水和非降水回波水平反射率结构（T）和垂直反射率差（V）均有不同的参数分布特征,并可有效区分。在此基础上以这两个参数作为FCM算法的输入特征向量,自动识别出降水回波和地物杂波。质量控制结果表明,恰当选取降水回波和地物回波的特征参数,作为FCM算法中的输入特征向量,能够有效识别这两类回波,从而剔除非降水回波,以提高质量控制的效果。     

长沙机场阵列天气雷达地物识别算法

地物杂波是影响雷达产品准确性的重要因素。该文提出了一种改进的基于模糊逻辑的阵列天气雷达地物识别算法。在Kessinger模糊逻辑基础上,加入回波强度时间变化量（time variability of reflectivity factor,T_VR）参数,利用收集到的雷达数据统计出各输入参数的概率分布,确定隶属函数;分析T_VR参数对地物识别算法的贡献,并在不同天气情况下进行识别算法有效性验证。试验结果表明:加入T_VR参数,长沙机场阵列天气雷达地物识别准确率最大可提高4%,降水识别误判率最多可降低2%。该文提出的地物杂波识别算法,无降水时,地物识别准确率达96%;有降水时,地物识别准确率达92%;降水回波误判为地物杂波的误判率约为10%,能较好地区分降水回波和地物杂波。     

基于双线偏振参量对北京X波段雷达非降水回波识别方法的研究

为了提高中国X波段双线偏振雷达(简称双偏振雷达)的数据质量,提升应用水平,基于美国多雷达多传感器定量降水估测业务系统质量控制(简称dpQC)方案,在此基础上增加了差分反射率阈值判别并对方案中的计算参数进行本地化调整,设计了针对X波段双偏振雷达的质量控制(简称dpXQC)方案,原理主要包括:将双偏振参量相关系数(CC)区分降水回波与非降水回波的阈值调整为0.9,小于0.9的回波判别为非降水回波;通过计算回波顶高与强回波区位置对冰雹与非均一性波束填充区域进行标识;通过统计探空资料0℃高度上下相关系数的特征,调整了融化层的识别参数;优化算法将双偏振参量差分反射率绝对值大于5 dB判别为非降水回波;加入了条状杂波识别、连续性检验与斑块杂波识别算法。利用dpXQC方案对北京五部X波段多普勒双偏振业务雷达进行试验,检验评估其对非降水回波识别效果,获得以下结果与结论:大部分非降水回波可以通过CC阈值判别被滤除;对于CC阈值判别无法滤除的条幅状、孤立点、块状非降水回波,dpXQC方案利用条幅状杂波识别、连续性检验与差分反射率阈值判别去滤除;dpXQC方案有效保护了冰雹、非均一性波束填充与融化层区域中CC0.9的降水回波不被滤除;检验结果显示,dpXQC方案对非降水回波正确识别率为91.8%,错误识别率为20.6%,均要优于dpQC方案,但dpXQC方案的错误识别率依然很高,主要有两方面原因,一是由于X波段雷达反射率衰减严重,方案会对一些离雷达较远的非均一性填充区域出现遗漏识别,二是融化层识别算法在所有方位角的位置与厚度是固定的,与实际观测不符,这均会导致被遗漏标识区域中CC0.9的降水回波被误判为非降水回波。总体来看,dpXQC方案在滤除非降水回波的同时,最大程度保护了降水回波不被滤除,为雷达资料定量化应用等相关业务提供保障。     

CINRAD/SAD双偏振雷达非降水回波识别技术

双偏振雷达观测特征参量（如相关系数、差分反射率等）能有效抑制地物、超折射、电磁干扰、海浪和晴空等非降水回波。在上海南汇WSR-88D双偏振雷达非降水回波识别算法基础上,对我国升级布网且纳入业务运行的CINRAD/SAD双偏振雷达数据进行算法测试、算法模块适应性改进,利用江苏、广东的双偏振雷达观测冰雹、融化层、台风降水及各种杂波个例进行算法检验评估,并在组网拼图中展示质量控制效果。结果表明:总体上算法对非降水回波的识别准确率达到95.2%,降水回波的误判率为2.6%。但对夏秋季节夜晚的大面积晴空回波算法识别准确率低于90%,有待尝试利用深度学习方法改进。     

宁波非气象雷达回波的人工智能识别及滤波

统计分析2003—2006年宁波雷达的非气象杂波, 影响杂波主要为地物杂波, 包括普通地物杂波 (NP杂波) 和异常地物杂波 (AP杂波) ; 并分析这些杂波在反射率因子、径向速度、谱宽产品上不连续的离散状分布等特征。基于以上特征及传统杂波识别的经验而设计出一种近似模拟人眼模糊识别的稳定安全的多维线性近似的杂波识别及其过滤算法, 在 190 个个例测试中大都效果较好, 尤其在 150 km 以内, 能够在确保降水数据完整、准确的基础上有效过滤非气象杂波。     

基于模糊逻辑的双偏振多普勒雷达地物杂波抑制方法的初步应用

以广州双线偏振多普勒天气雷达为例,用反射率因子水平纹理、相关系数、差分反射率因子标准差、差分传播相位标准差和相关系数标准差5个参量,作为模糊逻辑方法的输入参数,实现地物杂波抑制。结果表明:加入偏振参数的模糊逻辑算法能有效识别静态地物杂波,但是对强降水边缘回波以及层状云降水回波存在误判的情况。     

多普勒雷达晴空回波识别与应用

在现有多普勒天气雷达资料质量控制基础上,采用徐州雷达站2009年4月和9月雷达资料,统计并对比几种常见的降水回波与非降水回波特性,找出一种有效地识别晴空回波的方法。该方法在不同径向距离区间(小于25km及25～200km)采用不同的识别参数,能够较好地将非降水回波中对临近预报有用的晴空回波信息保留,而将其他非降水回波信息(地物回波、超折射回波等)剔除。依据该方法识别的晴空回波区域所对应Doppler速度可用于判别大气平流状况,从而为预报工作提供帮助。     

S波段WSR-88D双偏振雷达观测非降水回波识别方法研究

与新一代天气雷达相比,双偏振雷达能发射水平和垂直极化偏振波,具有更多的测量信息,利于区分降水和非降水回波,在雷达定量估测降水中发挥着重要作用。本文根据双偏振雷达的测量变量(水平反射率、差分反射率和相关系数)及降水与非降水回波的结构特征,发展了一套S波段双偏振雷达数据质量控制算法,重点研究晴空回波和生物回波的识别。利用上海南汇WSR-88D偏振雷达的观测数据做测试和评估,评估结果表明该算法对南汇偏振雷达非降水回波识别准确率达93%以上,且对降水回波的误判率仅为3.82%。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Retrieval of outgoing longwave radiation from COMS narrowband infrared imagery

Hourly outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) from the geostationary satellite Communication Oceanography Meteorological Satellite(COMS) has been retrieved since June 2010. The COMS OLR retrieval algorithms are based on regression analyses of radiative transfer simulations for spectral functions of COMS infrared channels. This study documents the accuracies of OLRs for future climate applications by making an intercomparison of four OLRs from one single-channel algorithm(OLR12.0using the 12.0 μm channel) and three multiple-channel algorithms(OLR10.8+12.0using the 10.8 and 12.0 μm channels; OLR6.7+10.8using the 6.7 and 10.8 μm channels; and OLR All using the 6.7, 10.8, and 12.0 μm channels). The COMS OLRs from these algorithms were validated with direct measurements of OLR from a broadband radiometer of the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System(CERES) over the full COMS field of view [roughly(50°S–50°N, 70°–170°E)] during April 2011.Validation results show that the root-mean-square errors of COMS OLRs are 5–7 W m-2, which indicates good agreement with CERES OLR over the vast domain. OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All have much smaller errors(～ 6 W m-2) than OLR12.0and OLR10.8+12.0(～ 8 W m-2). Moreover, the small errors of OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All are systematic and can be readily reduced through additional mean bias correction and/or radiance calibration. These results indicate a noteworthy role of the6.7 μm water vapor absorption channel in improving the accuracy of the OLRs. The dependence of the accuracy of COMS OLRs on various surface, atmospheric, and observational conditions is also discussed.