不同地质统计方法在确定渗透系数场中的对比研究

应用地质统计方法研究渗透系数场的空间变异性。利用MMR含水层场地实测数据,通过去类分析、特异值处理、正态变换,逐步逼近研究区渗透系数的稳健变差函数,得到三维渗透系数场的几何各向异性套合模型。在此基础上,采用普通克里格法和指示克里格法、高斯序列模拟法和指示序列模拟法分别对数据进行插值和条件模拟。最后结合具体的地质条件,对四种方法在渗透系数场生成中的应用进行对比分析和评价。     

渗透系数的空间变异性对污染物运移的影响研究

随机水文地质学方法,较传统的确定性方法而言,是解决非均质含水层中水流和溶质运移问题的一种更为合理的手段。据以往研究,假设渗透系数场遵循对数正态分布,利用直接傅立叶变换方法来生成渗透系数随机场。应用基于随机理论的蒙特卡罗方法,来研究渗透系数的空间变异性对污染物运移结果的影响。实例研究表明,污染物在含水层中运移过程中污染羽的展布范围(二阶矩)随着渗透系数空间变异方差的增大而扩大,而污染羽在空间上的质心位置(一阶矩)基本不受方差的影响,仅取决于渗透系数随机场的均值大小。另外还分析了污染羽在各点的浓度变化方差和变异系数分别随渗透系数变异方差的变化状况。     

多个相关随机参数的空间变异性对溶质运移的影响

根据给定渗透系数、孔隙度以及吸附系数的概率分布,采用顺序高斯模拟生成相关的多参数随机场的实现,作为地下水流和溶质运移模型的输入参数,对污染物浓度进行随机分析。研究结果表明,与仅考虑渗透系数空间变异性相比,考虑相关的多参数空间变异性导致污染羽的扩散程度有显著不同。当孔隙度与渗透系数呈正相关关系时,会减少污染羽的扩散程度,反之,当孔隙度与渗透系数为负相关关系时,会加剧污染羽的扩散程度。吸附系数也是如此。在考虑吸附系数的空间变异性之后,污染羽的分布表现出拖尾现象。同时考虑渗透系数、孔隙度以及吸附系数空间变异性时,孔隙度非均质性对溶质运移的影响较吸附系数非均质性的影响更大。     

衬垫中污染物运移的一维概率分析

衬垫中污染物的运移分析一般采用确定性方法。为了研究渗透系数变异性对污染物运移的影响,基于土层剖面随机场理论,将渗透系数模拟成服从对数正态分布的空间随机场,利用Monte-Carlo和数值积分两种方法进行分析。两种方法得到的结果有很好的一致性。衬垫渗透系数的空间变异性对污染物运移有重要影响。变异系数较大时,衬垫失效概率在前期较大而后期较小,但衬垫底部出现高浓度(相对浓度0.9～1.0)的几率也较高。衬垫的可靠性要综合考虑渗透系数的变异性和渗透系数数值范围的影响。      

渗透率空间变异性对重非水相流体运移的影响

中针对多孔介质中水、气和非水相流体的多相流运移特点,建立了由包气带至饱和带的 NAPLs- 水 - 气三相流模 型。用 Karhunen-Loeve 展开方法构建 4 个空间变异性不同的渗透率随机场。在此基础上,分别模拟 4 种情景重非水相流体 (DNAPLs)的泄漏运移过程。通过分析 DNAPLs 饱和度的空间分布以及其空间矩随时间的变化来探讨渗透率空间变异性对 DNAPLs 运移的影响。结果显示,随着渗透率空间变异性的增强,DNAPLs 饱和度的空间变异性增大。渗透率场中的优势通 道对 DNAPLs 运移有着显著影响,直接决定 DNAPLs 的运移路径和饱和度分布。渗透率场的各向异性降低了 DNAPLs 在垂向 上的运移速度,影响污染羽的形态。     

基于地质统计学的NDVI图像估值技术

将疏采样后的NDVI图像作为未受云层影响的已知数据,分别用普通克里格、泛克里格、指示克里格和序贯指示模拟对NDVI图像进行恢复并比较其效果。研究发现,各种克里格法对NDVI图像的估值效果由高到低依次为泛克里格、普通克里格、指示克里格,通常计算方便的普通克里格法就能够满足图像恢复所要求的精度;普通克里格方差和泛克里格方差只能反映数据的构型,不能很好地衡量估值图像的不确定性,指示克里格的条件方差的分布和实际误差的分布基本一致,能够较好地衡量估值图像的不确定性,并且其大小与NDVI影像数据的不确定性大小的分布一致。序贯指示模拟得到的多个等概率实现表现出很大的空间变异性,多个实现的均值图像光滑效应明显,估值精度不高,但是多个实现的方差分布可以很好地表征空间数据的不确定性分布。     

随机连续模型分析裂隙岩体耦合行为

利用能够反映岩体水力性质空间变异特性的随机连续模型对隧洞开挖过程中的裂隙岩体渗流-应力耦合过程进行了数值分析。随机渗透系数场通过顺序指示模拟方法生成。顺序指示法是一种非参数地质统计学技术,他允许输入任何形式的渗透系数概率分布而不需要对分布做任何假设。由随机模拟生成的渗透系数场被投影到有限元计算网格中进行耦合分析。力学响应使用基于连续介质的节理本构模型来反映岩体中软弱面的影响。结果表明,随机连续模型能够较好地预测裂隙岩体的稳定入渗率,水力性质的空间变异性对裂隙介质的耦合过程起着重要作用。在不排水条件下,隧洞每次开挖开始时,由于岩石应力重分布,孔隙水受到扰动,短时间内不能流动平衡,因此孔压会迅速上升,这对于围岩稳定是不利的。     

含水层渗透系数空间变异性对地下水数值模拟的影响

地下水数值模拟是目前定量研究地下水水量和水质的重要手段。使用基于随机理论的MonteCarlo方法来进行地下水数值模拟。这种方法能较好地考虑水文地质参数的空间变异性。主要将MonteCarlo方法和确定性模型模拟方法的模拟结果在渗透系数场、水头场、速度场和浓度场等方面进行了比较。结果表明:在模拟三维非均质含水层中的溶质运移问题时,充分考虑了含水层渗透系数空间变异性的MonteCarlo法比确定性方法更为有效,模拟精度提高了很多,且对模拟误差及误差来源有合理的数学解释。     

含水层非均质性不同刻画方法对地下水流和溶质运移预测的影响

为探讨含水层非均质性不同刻画方法对地下水流和溶质运移预测的影响,基于非均质含水层砂箱实验,分别用传统等效均质模型、克立金插值和水力层析刻画含水层渗透系数场,并探讨了先验信息对水力层析结果的影响.将不同方法估算的渗透系数场用以预测地下水流和溶质运移过程,以此判断不同方法估算结果的优劣,分析含水层非均质性对地下水流和溶质运移的影响.结果表明:与克立金插值法相比,水力层析法可以更好地刻画含水层非均质性,较准确地预测地下水流和溶质运移过程;钻孔岩心渗透系数样本值作为先验信息可以提高水力层析法估算结果的精度;传统等效均质模型无法准确预测地下水流和溶质运移过程.含水层非均质性的增强将导致溶质污染羽分布形态和运移路径的空间变异性增强,并且优势通道直接决定溶质的分布及运移路径.      

数值模型的不确定性对污染物运移的影响研究

针对数值模型中结构与参数的不确定性因素,以安徽省丘陵地区一铁矿为例,通过建立地下水数值模拟模型,分别分析了结构与参数的不确定性对污染物运移结果的影响程度。分析结果表明:模型结构方面,随着数值模型的结构发生变化,污染羽中心点浓度值随厚度的增加而降低,且污染物的运移影响范围也有所缩小,当厚度增大20%时,一年末水平方向的影响范围由204 m减小至198 m,减小了近3%;参数方面,随着渗透系数的增加,污染羽中心点浓度值逐渐降低,污染羽的影响范围呈现增大的趋势,但增加的幅度较小。     

Probability of plume interception using conditional simulation of hydraulic head and inverse modeling

A procedure to estimate the probability of intercepting a contaminant groundwater plume for monitoring network design has been developed and demonstrated. The objective of the procedure is to use all available information in a method that accounts for the heterogeneity of the aquifer and the paucity of data. The major components of the procedure are geostatistical conditional simulation and parameter estimation that are used sequentially to generate flow paths from a suspected contaminant source location to a designated monitoring transect. From the flow paths, a histogram is constructed that represents the spatial probability distribution of plume centerlines. With an independent estimate of the plume width, a relationship between the total cost and the probability of detecting a plume can be made. The method uses geostatistical information from hydraulic head measurements and is conditioned by the data and the physics of groundwater flow. This procedure was developed specifically for the design of monitoring systems at sites where very few, if any, hydraulic conductivity data are available.     

水力层析法与克立金法估算非均质含水层渗透系数场比较

含水层非均质性空间分布特征的识别,是准确模拟地下水流和污染物运移的前提.基于室内非均质含水层砂箱实验,分别利用水力层析法和克立金插值法刻画了非均质含水层渗透系数场.研究结果表明:(1) 水力层析法与克立金法相比,不仅可以更好地刻画非均质含水层渗透系数场,还可以更高精度地预测地下水流过程;(2) 水力层析抽水实验中,通过增加抽水实验组数可以有效地提高水力层析参数反演的精度,但是抽水实验组数增加到一定程度以后,再增加抽水组数不会显著提升参数反演的效果.后续需要进一步研究水力层析抽水实验合适的组数,进一步对抽水井进行优化布设.      

Application of kriging with external drift to estimate hydraulic conductivity from electrical-resistivity data in unconsolidated deposits near Montalto Uffugo, Italy

In the framework of various studies to characterize the aquifer at the groundwater experimental field near Montalto Uffugo, Italy, the present work estimates the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity of the unconsolidated deposits that underlie the area, by applying the geostatistical technique of kriging with external drift to electrical-resistivity and hydraulic-conductivity data. The reliability of the estimation method was tested by implementing a model, based on the method of cells, that simulates groundwater flow, with the estimated values of hydraulic conductivity. The results obtained indicate that the estimation method used has an acceptable degree of reliability.     

Application of multiple-point geostatistics on modelling groundwater flow and transport in a cross-bedded aquifer (Belgium)

Sedimentological processes often result in complex three-dimensional subsurface heterogeneity of hydrogeological parameter values. Variogram-based stochastic approaches are often not able to describe heterogeneity in such complex geological environments. This work shows how multiple-point geostatistics can be applied in a realistic hydrogeological application to determine the impact of complex geological heterogeneity on groundwater flow and transport. The approach is applied to a real aquifer in Belgium that exhibits a complex sedimentary heterogeneity and anisotropy. A training image is constructed based on geological and hydrogeological field data. Multiple-point statistics are borrowed from this training image to simulate hydrofacies occurrence, while intrafacies permeability variability is simulated using conventional variogram-based geostatistical methods. The simulated hydraulic conductivity realizations are used as input to a groundwater flow and transport model to investigate the effect of small-scale sedimentary heterogeneity on contaminant plume migration. Results show that small-scale sedimentary heterogeneity has a significant effect on contaminant transport in the studied aquifer. The uncertainty on the spatial facies distribution and intrafacies hydraulic conductivity distribution results in a significant uncertainty on the calculated concentration distribution. Comparison with standard variogram-based techniques shows that multiple-point geostatistics allow better reproduction of irregularly shaped low-permeability clay drapes that influence solute transport.     

The hydraulic conductivity field and groundwater flow in the unconfined aquifer system of the Keta Strip,Ghana

This study investigates the hydraulic conductivity field and the groundwater flow pattern as predicted by a calibrated steady state groundwater flow model for the Keta Strip, southeastern Ghana. The hydraulic conductivity field is an important parameter in evaluating aquifer properties in space, and in general basin-wide groundwater resources evaluation and management. This study finds that the general hydraulic conductivity of the unconsolidated unconfined aquifer system of the Keta Strip ranges between 2 m/d and 20 m/d, with an average of 15 m/d. The spatial variation in horizontal hydraulic conductivity appears to take the trend in the variations in the nature of the material in space. Calibrated groundwater recharge suggests that 6.9–34% of annual precipitation recharges the shallow aquifer system. This amount of recharge is significant and suggests high fortunes in terms of groundwater resources development for agriculture and industrial activities in the area. A spatial distribution of groundwater recharge from precipitation is presented in this study. The spatial pattern appears to take the form of the distribution in horizontal hydraulic conductivity, and suggests that the vertical hydraulic conductivity takes the same pattern of spatial variation as the horizontal hydraulic conductivity. This is consistent with observations in other areas. The resulting groundwater flow is dominated by local flow systems as the unconfined system is quite shallow. A general northeast – southwest flow pattern has been observed in the study area.     

潜水摄动有限元的随机数值模拟

潜水水流的动态随机模拟是一个复杂而难解决的问题.通过建立二维潜水非稳定流模拟的摄动随机有限元模型, 把控制方程的主要参数渗透系数和给水度随机变量、及源汇项和边界条件看作随机变量.在充分考虑4种随机因素的条件下, 推导出求解潜水二维非稳定流均值和方差的9个方程; 重点介绍了不同方程数值离散的特殊处理方法.通过设定理想例子对模拟结果进行了分析, 表明随机变量中边界条件值方差、渗透系数方差变化对水头方差变化的影响很小, 给水度方差的变化对水头方差的变化影响很大.本模型考虑因素全面, 对一般的潜水非稳定流随机模拟都可应用.本研究给出了边界、渗透系数、给水度的随机因素对潜水动态模拟的影响, 丰富和补充了地下水运动的随机理论.      

Transmissivity estimation for highly heterogeneous aquifers: comparison of three methods applied to the Edwards Aquifer,Texas, USA

Obtaining reliable hydrological input parameters is a key challenge in groundwater modeling. Although many quantitative characterization techniques exist, experience applying these techniques to highly heterogeneous real-world aquifers is limited. Three geostatistical characterization techniques are applied to the Edwards Aquifer, a limestone aquifer in south-central Texas, USA, for the purposes of quantifying the performance in an 88,000-cell groundwater model. The first method is a simple kriging of existing hydraulic conductivity data developed primarily from single-well tests. The second method involves numerical upscaling to the grid-block scale, followed by cokriging the grid-block conductivity. In the third method, the results of the second method are used to establish the prior distribution for a Bayesian updating calculation. Results of kriging alone are biased towards low values and fail to reproduce hydraulic heads or spring flows. The upscaling/cokriging approach removes most of the systematic bias. The Bayesian update reduced the mean residual by more than a factor of 10, to 6 m, approximately 2.5% of the total head variation in the aquifer. This agreement demonstrates the utility of automatic calibration techniques based on formal statistical approaches and lends further support for using the Bayesian updating approach for highly heterogeneous aquifers.     

Numerical modeling of contaminant transport in a stratified heterogeneous aquifer with dipping anisotropy

The combined influence of dip angle and adsorption heterogeneity on solute transport mechanisms in heterogeneous media can be understood by performing simulations of steady-state flow and transient transport in a heterogeneous aquifer with dipping anisotropy. Reactive and non-reactive contaminant transport in various types of heterogeneous aquifer is studied by simulations. The hydraulic conductivity (K) of the heterogeneous aquifer is generated by HYDRO_GEN with a Gaussian correlation spectrum. By considering the heterogeneity of the adsorption distribution coefficient (K _d), a perfect negative correlation between lnK and lnK _d is obtained by using the spherical grains model. The generated K and K _d are used as input to groundwater flow and transport models to investigate the effects of dipping sedimentary heterogeneity on contaminant plume evolution. Simulation results showed that the magnitude of the dip angle strongly controls the plume evolution in the studied anisotropic and heterogeneous aquifer. The retarded average pore-water velocity (v/R) of the adsorption model significantly controls the horizontal spreading of the plume. The bottom plume is intensively retarded in the zones between the dipping lenses of lower hydraulic conductivity and the no-flow bottom boundary. The implications of these findings are very important for the management of contaminated heterogeneous aquifers.