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1.
We developed generalised additive models (GAMs) to estimate standardised time-series of population abundance indices for assessment purposes and to infer ecological and behavioural information on northern Benguela hakes, Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus, using haul-by-haul commercial trawl catch-rate data as proxies for hake densities. The modelling indicated that individual ship identifiers should be used rather than general vessel characteristics, such as vessel size. The final models explained 79% and 68% of the variability in the commercial catch rates of M. capensis and M. paradoxus, respectively. The spatial density patterns were consistent and confirmed existing knowledge about these species in the northern Benguela system. Furthermore, seasonal migration patterns were described for the first time and were found to correspond to the known spawning areas and seasons for M. capensis and M. paradoxus. Spatial density patterns were validated using the geostatistical modelling results of fisheries-independent trawl survey data. Improved understanding of the relationships between fleet dynamics and fish movement can be achieved by taking into consideration the present catch-rate model and spatial and seasonal distribution maps. We conclude that the yearly standardised CPUE time-series are problematic as proxies for total stock abundance because of spatial coverage issues. Consequently, such CPUE data should not be used for stock-size assessments and fisheries advice concerning northern Benguela hakes until this is solved. We generally recommend the exclusion of standardised CPUE time-series from stock assessments when important and changing parts of the stock distribution cannot be targeted by the fishery, such as due to closed areas or seasons.  相似文献   

2.
We synthesise and update results from the suite of biophysical, larval-dispersal models developed in the Benguela Current ecosystem. Biophysical models of larval dispersal use outputs of physical hydrodynamic models as inputs to individual-based models in which biological processes acting during the larval life are included. In the Benguela, such models were first applied to simulate the dispersal of anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and sardine Sardinops sagax ichthyoplankton, and more recently of the early life stages of chokka-squid Loligo reynaudii and Cape hakes Merluccius spp. We identify how the models have helped advance understanding of key processes for these species. We then discuss which aspects of the early life of marine species in the Benguela Current ecosystem are still not well understood and could benefit from new modelling studies.  相似文献   

3.
Lichia amia is an important coastal recreational fishery species with a cosmopolitan distribution in the eastern Atlantic. In southern Africa, it is distributed from southern Angola to northern KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa. A recent biological survey revealed differences between Angolan and South African individuals suggesting that they may represent separate stocks. As fishery management decisions should be based on accurate knowledge of population structure, an initial survey of the genetic substructuring of L. amia was conducted on samples collected in southern Angola and South Africa. Assessment of genetic diversity and population structure was conducted using a fragment of the mitochondrial Control Region. Obtained genetic diversity levels were within the expected range for marine teleosts (h = 0.867, π = 0.007), and two deeply divergent (southern Angolan and South African) populations were identified (average φ ST = 0.78) across the Benguela Current system. These results suggest that Angolan and South African L. amia should be managed as two independent stocks. This work represents the first assessment of population genetic substructuring across the Benguela Current of a valuable coastal fishery resource, and has application for future fisheries management.  相似文献   

4.
We examined spatial variability in meristic and morphological characteristics of the branchial basket of sardine Sardinops sagax collected from four geographical regions around the southern African coast, namely Namibia and the South African west, south and east coasts. Our analysis tested the hypothesis of three putative sardine stocks off South Africa, one in each of the three geographical regions. We therefore collected fish data from Namibia to compare with South Africa, because sardine from the two countries are considered to be separate stocks. Morphometric measurements (gill arch length and gill raker spacing) and meristic data (number of gill rakers) were collected from the left side of the first gill arch from a total of 377 sardine, approximately equally divided between the regions. A multivariate general linear model with caudal length as covariate was used to assess differences among fish from the four regions and significant differences were observed, although not always consistently across all fish size classes. Small South Coast sardine had shorter gill arches than small West Coast sardine, but adults had gill arches of similar length, longer than those from Namibia and the East Coast. Small sardine from the South Coast had fewer gill rakers than small sardine from the West Coast, but larger fish had similar numbers of gill rakers, significantly more than sardine from Namibia and the East Coast. Sardine from the West and South coasts had similar gill raker spacings, which were smaller than those of fish from the East Coast and Namibia. Despite spatially and particularly temporally unbalanced sampling, we consider that these differences provide evidence of spatial variation in Benguela sardine phenotype and that it would support the hypothesis of discrete sardine stocks off Namibia and South Africa. The results are consistent with the hypothesis of three sardine stocks within the southern Benguela.  相似文献   

5.
根据2011年及2013?2018年春、秋两季在海州湾及其邻近海域进行的底拖网调查数据,研究该海域短吻红舌鳎(Cynoglossus joyneri)的资源分布特征及其受环境因子和饵料生物的影响,并比较了两种模型(普通GAM模型和PCA-GAM模型)对其资源分布的预测效果,采用交叉验证的方法对模型的预测能力及拟合效果进行评价。结果显示:PCA-GAM模型的拟合度及预测效果均优于普通GAM模型。春、秋两季海州湾短吻红舌鳎资源丰度均呈现南高北低、近岸浅水区大于深水区的分布特征,因为海州湾南部近岸海域较高的水温利于春、秋季短吻红舌鳎产卵群体性腺发育,较低的盐度利于其鱼卵及仔鱼的生长发育,同时,近岸海域丰富的饵料资源为产卵后的亲体提供大量食物供给。分别应用两种模型预测了2018年春季和秋季短吻红舌鳎在海州湾的资源分布,结果显示,PCA-GAM模型的预测值与实际调查的结果更为吻合,预测效果要优于普通GAM模型。本研究为今后开展渔业生物空间分布的研究提供了一种新的方法。  相似文献   

6.
Literature on trophic relationships in the Benguela ecosystem has stressed the importance of cephalopods as prey of groundfish. The groundfish community of the shelf and upper slope of southern Africa is dominated by the Cape hakes, and the results presented (1984–1991) confirm that both species of hake are important predators of cephalopods, especially taking into consideration the abundance of hake in the ecosystem. However, geographic, seasonal and species variability are evident in the patterns observed. The main prey species are Sepia spp. (predominantly Sepia australis), Loligo vulgaris reynaudii, Todaropsis eblanae and Lycoteuthis ?diadema. The last-named is an important food organism for fish. Its systematic status needs revision, however. Qualitative results of studies of cephalopod predation are also provided for kingklip and monkfish.  相似文献   

7.
A balanced trophic flow model of the southern Benguela ecosystem is presented, averaging the period 1980–1989 and emphasizing upper trophic levels. The model is based largely on studies conducted within the framework of the Benguela Ecology Programme and updates the results of an expert workshop held in Cape Town in September 1989. Small pelagic fish other than anchovy Engraulis capensis and sardine Sardinops sagax, mainly round herring Etrumeus whiteheadi and mesopelagic fish, were important components of the food web in the southern Benguela. Severe balancing difficulties were encountered with respect to the semi-pelagic resources (hake Merluccius spp.) and demersal top predators (sharks), indicating the need for further research on the interaction of these groups with their ecosystem. The model is compared to other existing trophic flow models of ecosystems in major upwelling areas, i.e. the northern Humboldt Current (4–14°S), the California Current (28–42°N) and the southern Canary Current (l2–25°N), and to two independently constructed models of the northern Benguela ecosystem. These models are compared using network analysis routines of the ECOPATH software, focusing on the interactions between the five dominant fish species (anchovy, sardine, horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus capensis, chub mackerel Scomber japonicus and hake) that support important fisheries in all systems. The upwelling systems rank by size rather than species dominance. The ratio of catches and primary production differs between systems, partly because of differences in fishing regimes. Predation on the five dominant fish groups by other fish in the system was the most important cause of fish mortality in all models. Fishery catches are generally a larger cause of mortality for these groups than predation by mammals. The ecological cost of fishing appears to be comparatively low in the southern Benguela, because catches are low compared with the primary production, but also because the fishery is relatively low in the foodweb. However, in view of the very tight foodweb demonstrated in the model. it is likely that an increase in fishing pressure would cause severe trade-offs with respect to other components of the southern Benguela ecosystem.  相似文献   

8.
Trends in the population of Cape fur seals Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus were estimated from counts of pups on aerial photographs of colonies taken between 1972 and 2004 to determine trends in the overall population and subpopulations. Incomplete coverage resulted in missing data in some years. Various methods of determining proxy values for missing data were assessed, and it was concluded that different methods were applicable to Namibian and South African colonies. This reflected variation in trends of pup counts between the countries, which was associated with differences in productivity between the southern and northern Benguela ecosystems. In Namibia, temporal changes in pup numbers were non-linear in some years and there was correspondence in fluctuations at most colonies. This appeared to be on account of an effect of periodic, wide-scale prey shortages that reduced birth rates. There was a northward shift in the distribution of seals in the northern Benguela system. In South Africa, pup counts were much less variable between years, probably on account of a relative stability of food supply. A linear approach was therefore suitable for determining proxy values for missing data at South African colonies. Pup counts suggest that there has been little change in the overall population of the Cape fur seals since 1993, when it was estimated at about two million animals.  相似文献   

9.
Spatial dependence can obscure relationships between response and explanatory variables because of structuring within the residuals reducing variance and biasing coefficient estimates. Here, we highlight the influence of the spatial component, in the presence of spatial dependence, on abundance trends. This is illustrated using abundance data for a Critically Endangered reef fish, dageraad Chrysoblephus cristiceps, which were obtained from a long-term monitoring programme in the Tsitsikamma National Park marine protected area, South Africa. Correlograms illustrate distinct spatial structuring in the abundance data, and spatial variables were determined as more important than temporal variables when ranked according to predictive power using a random forest analysis. A generalised additive model (GAM) that did not account for spatial dependencies was compared to a generalised additive mixed model (GAMM) that incorporated a spatial residual correlation structure. Results derived from the spatially explicit GAMM differed considerably from the GAM lacking a spatial component, with the latter deemed to produce over-precise and partially biased abundance trends. The study emphasises the importance of space in accurately modelling abundance estimates, particularly temporal trends, and provides an introduction to the minimal statistical requirements necessary to address the violations associated with spatial autocorrelation.  相似文献   

10.
As a contribution to South Africa's move towards an ecosystem approach to fisheries management, this study explores the existence of common perceptions about South Africa's pelagic fishery between resource users and scientists. It represents a collaborative research effort of social and natural scientists. A brief overview is given of the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem and small pelagic fish resources, the fishery, and management of the fishery. Stakeholder knowledge and views were determined by conducting open-ended qualitative local knowledge interviews. Candidate indicators to address five major issues raised in the interviews were selected: length-at-50% maturity, total mortality, exploitation rate, proportion of bycatch, mean length of catch, and centre of gravity of catches. The indicator approach is shown to be a useful tool to manage the South African small pelagic fishery, and can be made compatible with existing management approaches. The foundation of a good adaptive fisheries management system is a data collection system that enables multi-disciplinary analysis and provides a basis on which decisions can be made.  相似文献   

11.
Factors influencing suitable habitats of juvenile southern flounder (Paralichthys lethostigma) within the Galveston Bay Complex (GBC), Texas, were assessed using generalized additive models (GAM). Fishery independent data collected with bag seines throughout the GBC from 1999 to 2009 were used to predict the probability of southern flounder occurrence. Binomial GAMs were used to assess presence/absence of southern flounder and models included temporal variables, benthic variables such as distance to habitats generated within a geographic information system, and physicochemical conditions of the water column. Separate models were generated for newly settled southern flounder, young-of-the-year (YOY) southern flounder observed in the summer, and YOY southern flounder observed in fall based on size and collection month. Factors affecting southern flounder occurrence changed seasonally, as did the corresponding shifts in the spatial distribution of suitable habitat. Temporal effects (year and month) were retained in all models. Physicochemical conditions (temperature, turbidity, and measures of environmental variability), and the presence of seagrass beds were influential for newly settled southern flounder. Distance to marine and/or freshwater sources were found to be important for YOY southern flounder in the summer and fall seasons. The abundance of brown shrimp was found to only influence the distribution of YOY southern flounder in the fall, when intermediate abundances of the potential prey item increased the occurrence of southern flounder. After model completion, the availability and spatial distribution of suitable habitat within the GBC was predicted using available environmental and spatial data for 2005. Spatial distributions of predicted suitable habitat stress the relative importance of West Bay during the newly settled stage and in the fall season, and Upper Bay during the summer and fall of the first year of life. These models demonstrate the potential dynamics of suitable habitats for juvenile southern flounder and provide insight into ontogenetic shifts in habitat preference during the first year of life.  相似文献   

12.
秋刀鱼(Cololabis saira)是中国在西北太平洋海域的重要的捕捞对象之一,单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE) 标准化是开展其资源评估研究的重要内容,许多统计模型被运用到CPUE标准化研究中。本文根据2003-2017年中国大陆在西北太平洋海域的秋刀鱼生产统计资料,结合卫星遥感获得的海洋环境数据如:海表面温度、海表面高度以及海温梯度等,基于广义线性模型(general linear model,GLM) 和广义加性模型(generalized additive model,GAM) 对中国大陆西北太平洋秋刀鱼渔业进行CPUE 标准化,并对两种模型的结果进行了对比分析研究。通过贝叶斯信息准则选择最佳GLM和GAM模型,使用解释偏差和5-fold交差验证来对比两个模型结果。GLM模型的最佳模型对CPUE偏差的解释率为21.57%,GAM的最佳模型对CPUE偏差的解释率为38.95%。通过5-fold交差验证分析发现,GAM模型标准化结果较优于GLM模型,因此,认为GAM模型更适合于西北太平洋秋刀鱼渔业CPUE标准化。  相似文献   

13.
Species distribution maps are needed for ecosystem-based marine management including the development of marine spatial plans. If such maps are based on predictive models then modelling procedures should aim to maximise validation success, and any uncertainty in the predictions needs to be made explicit. We developed a predictive modelling approach to produce robust maps of the distributions of selected marine species at a regional scale. We used 14 years of survey data to map the distributions of plaice, sole and thornback ray in three hydrographic regions comprising parts of the Irish Sea, Celtic Sea and the English Channel with the help of the hybrid technique regression kriging, which combines regression models with geostatistical tools. For each species–region combination we constructed logistic Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) based on presence–absence data using the environmental variables: depth, bottom temperature, bed shear stress and sediment type, as predictors. We selected GLMs using the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) estimated by cross-validation then conducted a geostatistical analysis of the residuals to incorporate spatial structure in the predictions. In general, we found that species occurrence was positively related to shallow areas, a bed shear stress of between 0 and 1.5 N/m2, and the presence of sandy sediment. Predicted species occurrence probabilities were in good agreement with survey observations. This modelling framework selects environmental models based on predictive ability and considers the effect of spatial autocorrelation on predictions, together with the simultaneous presentation of observations, associated uncertainties, and predictions. The potential benefit of these distribution maps to marine management and planning is discussed.  相似文献   

14.
Time-series of condition factor (CF) and gonadosomatic index (GSI) were generated using general linear models (GLM) for sardine Sardinops sagax stocks in the northern and southern Benguela ecosystems over the period 1984–1999. During this period the biomass of sardine in the northern Benguela remained at relatively low levels of <500 000 tons, whereas that of southern Benguela sardine increased 40-fold to 1.3 million tons. The GLMs explained 27 and 45% of the observed variation in CF, and 32 and 28% of the observed variation in GSI, for sardine in the northern and southern Benguela subsystems respectively. Whereas the sardine CF in the northern Benguela remained stable over time, that for the southern Benguela stock declined steadily during the study period. Sardine CF showed a seasonal cycle in the southern but not in the northern Benguela. Time-series of GSI showed high interannual variability but no trends in either subsystem, and the seasonal pattern was similar for both stocks. The lack of coherence between the CF time-series for sardine in the two subsystems further suggests that sardine stocks in the northern and southern Benguela subsystems are independent.  相似文献   

15.
The three countries of the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem (BCLME), namely Angola, Namibia and South Africa, have committed to implementing ecosystem-based management (EBM) including an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF) in the region, to put in practice the principles of sustainable development in ocean-related matters. There is also recognition of the need for marine spatial planning (MSP) as a process for informing EBM with regard to the allocation and siting of ocean uses so that ecosystem health is ensured and trade-offs between ecosystem services are appropriately dealt with. Marine spatial planning is both an integrated and an area-based process, and this paper produces a spatial characterisation of the BCLME for achieving a common basis for MSP in the region, focusing on the oceanography, biology and fisheries. Recognising spatial variation in physical driving forces, primary and secondary production, trophic structures and species richness, four different subsystems are characterised: (1) north of the Angola–Benguela Front, (2) from the Angola–Benguela Front to Lüderitz, (3) from Lüderitz to Cape Agulhas, and (4) from Cape Agulhas to Port Alfred on the south-east coast of South Africa. Research and monitoring requirements of relevance for MSP and EBM in the region are identified, focusing on understanding variability and change, including with regard to the boundary areas identified for the system. To this end, 14 cross-shelf monitoring transects are proposed (including seven that are already being monitored) to estimate fluxes of biota, energy and materials within and between the subsystems. The usefulness of models for understanding ecosystem variability and changes is recognised and the need for fine-scale resolution of both sampling and modelling for adequate MSP as input to EBM for the often-conflicting interests of conserving biodiversity, and managing fisheries, recreation, offshore oil and gas exploration and exploitation, offshore mining and shipping routes, is emphasised.  相似文献   

16.
The angelfish Brama brama is a mesopelagic species distributed circumglobally in temperate to warm-temperate waters, including continental-shelf-edge and upper-slope waters of the Benguela Current ecosystem. Little is known about the parasite assemblage of Benguela B. brama, with only three parasite taxa having previously been documented from this species in the southern Benguela. This study describes the macroparasites recorded from 35 B. brama collected during research surveys off the west coast of South Africa in 2015 and 2016. A total of six macroparasite taxa were documented, including the nematode Anisakis pegreffii, the copepod Hatschekia conifera, the cestode Hepatoxylon trichiuri, an acanthocephalan from the genus Rhadinorhynchus, a monogenean from the family Diclidophoridae, and an unidentified species. Three of these (He. trichiuri, Rhadinorhynchus sp. and the unidentified species) had not previously been found to infect B. brama. The most prevalent macroparasite taxa were A. pegreffii (94%), the unidentified species (71%) and Ha. conifera (60%). Two of the parasites, Ha. conifera and He. trichiuri, showed seasonal variation in infection, and infection with the latter was positively correlated with host length. These findings increase our knowledge of B. brama biology and contribute to our understanding of the biodiversity of the southern Benguela ecosystem.  相似文献   

17.
Counts and photographs of right whales Eubalaena australis taken on aerial surveys of the southern coast of South Africa between 1969 and 1998 have been used to examine patterns of coastal distribution between successive 20-minute bins of longitude. Some bins had consistently higher densities of whales than others, cither of cows with calves or of unaccompanied adults. Apart from an overall increase in density, the centre of distribution shifted 40–60 minutes of longitude to the west over the 30-year period. Most (>93.4%) female calves born on the South African coast returned there to have their first calf, but only 52.9% were photographed with their first calf in the same or an adjacent bin as that of their natal year. This compares with 60.9% of multigravid females that occurred in the same or an adjacent bin as that of their previous calf, with significantly more west-ward (368) than eastward (255) shifts in distribution between calves. Approximate residence times for cow-calf pairs in the De Hoop region were 12–105 (average = 59.0 ± 3.9) days: dispersal rates were low between July and September but increased thereafter. Incidental records of coastwise movement were mainly to the west, but were probably influenced by the survey direction. Distances moved ranged from 6 to 202 km. at average speeds of 0.08–2.89 km·h?1. Theodolite tracking of undisturbed groups of right whales from Cape Columbine produced a similar range of swimming speeds. Inter-calf movements of cows between the survey area and the coasts to both east and west indicated that the entire South African coast could be considered as one homogeneous winter assemblage area for right whales.  相似文献   

18.
Changes and fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) around the South African coast are analysed at a monthly scale from 1982 to 2009. There is a statistically significant negative trend of up to 0.5 °C per decade in the southern Benguela from January to August, and a cooling trend of lesser magnitude along the South Coast and in the Port Elizabeth/Port Alfred region from May to August. The cooling is due to an increase in upwelling-favourable south-easterly and easterly winds. There is a positive trend in SST of up to 0.55 °C per decade in most parts of the Agulhas Current system during all months of the year, except for KwaZulu-Natal where warming is in summer. The warming was attributed to an intensification of the Agulhas Current in response to a poleward shift of westerly winds and an increase in trade winds in the South Indian Ocean at relevant latitudes. This intensification of the Agulhas Current could also have contributed to the coastal cooling in the Port Alfred dynamic upwelling region. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is significantly positively correlated at a 95% level with the southern Benguela and South Coast from February to May, and negatively correlated with the Agulhas Current system south of 36° S. The correlation with the Antarctic Annular Oscillation is weaker and less coherent. El Niño suppresses upwelling along the coast, whereas La Niña increases it. Although there does not seem to be a linear relationship between the strength of the ENSO and the magnitude of coastal SST perturbation, El Niño and La Niña appear to be linked to major warm and cool events, respectively, at a seasonal scale in summer in the southern Benguela and along the South Coast. However, care must be taken in interpreting low-resolution reanalysed climate data (ERA40 and NCEP) and optimally interpolated Reynolds SST, such as used here.  相似文献   

19.
A regime shift is considered to be a sudden shift in structure and functioning of a marine ecosystem, affecting several living components and resulting in an alternate state. According to this definition, regime shifts differ from species replacement or alternation of species at similar trophic levels, whereby the ecosystem is not necessarily significantly altered in terms of its structure and function; only its species composition changes. This paper provides an overview of regime shifts, species replacements and alternations that have been observed in the northern and southern Benguela ecosystems over the past few decades. Bottom-up control, initiating and sustaining regime shifts or species replacements via environmental forcing, is documented for both the southern and the northern Benguela ecosystems. Fishing (a case of top-down control) appears to have played an important role in regime shift processes in the Namibian ecosystem. Very low biomass levels of exploited fish stocks associated with less efficient energy transfer in the northern Benguela are indicative of a regime shift. Very high biomass levels have been reached in the southern Benguela in the 2000s. However the alternation between sardine and anchovy that has been observed in the southern Benguela over the last two decades appears not to have had major effects on the overall functioning of the ecosystem. The consequences of regime shifts for exploitation are highlighted, suggesting that fisheries managers should move towards a more effective ecosystem approach to fisheries.  相似文献   

20.
The first documented recapture of a South African-tagged juvenile blue shark Prionace glauca off Uruguay lends weight to the hypothesis of a single blue shark population in the South Atlantic. The presence of neonate blue sharks with umbilical scars and females with post-parturition scars, as well as the high frequency of small juveniles in research longline catches, confirm the existence of a parturition and nursery area off South Africa. The final positions of three tagged sharks suggest that large-scale movement patterns in the South Atlantic are a mirror image of movements in the North Atlantic, with sharks using the north-westerly Benguela Drift to migrate into the tropics and ultimately across into South American waters. The confirmed existence of a parturition and nursery area off the south coast of South Africa and the movement of sharks into both adjacent ocean basins suggest that the southern African blue sharks are part of a single stock that straddles the South Atlantic and Indian oceans, and possibly the entire Southern Hemisphere.  相似文献   

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