1997年以来巴颜喀拉块体周缘强震之间的黏弹性触发研究

本文利用考虑黏弹性地壳结构和精确震源参数的震后形变模型,计算了玛尼、昆仑山口西、汶川地震所形成的同震和震后形变场的变化过程与特征,结果显示玛尼地震的震后形变场有利于昆仑山口西地震的能量积累,玛尼地震与昆仑山口西地震的震后形变场对汶川地震的作用不明显,而这三次地震总的震后形变场在玉树断裂带附近形成了一个明显带有左旋性质的...     

昆仑山口西M_S 8.1地震同震影响场的数值模拟

根据野外调查得到的地震破裂以及同震位错分布,利用三维有限元模型研究了昆仑山口西MS8.1地震的同震位移场和同震应力场的分布,讨论了震后地震活动与同震应力场变化的关系。模拟的MS8.1地震同震位移场显示,东昆仑断裂带南北两侧的同震位移衰减程度存在差异,断裂带南部的同震位移衰减大于北部同震位移的衰减;同震应力场研究结果则表明,MS8.1地震的同震最大剪切应力主要集中在东昆仑断裂带的周边地区,最大剪切应力等值线沿断裂带密集分布,形成了高梯度带。MS8.1地震的发生使青藏活动地块区的地壳应力发生了剧烈的变化,可能导致研究区的地壳应力场得到松弛。库伦破裂应力的研究表明,昆仑山地震对其后发生的5次强余震有一定的触发作用,昆仑山口西MS8.1地震可能也触发了2003年的德令哈6.6级地震     

近10年来中国大陆GPS水平运动与构造变形特征

利用1999-2009年中国大陆CPS水平运动速度场资料,对近10年来地壳水平运动及主要活动断裂带构造变形特征、昆仑山口西8.1级与汶川8.0级地震变形及其可能影响进行了分析.结果表明:①昆仑山口西与汶川地震同震变形显著,可能在一定程度上促进东昆仑构造带东段及甘川-甘川陕交界,鲜水河断裂带南段、安宁河断裂带中北段及与龙...     

东昆仑活动断裂带大地震之间的弹性应力触发研究

1937年以来沿青藏高原北部东昆仑断裂带发生了5个Ms≥7的地震：1937年Ms7．5花石峡地震，1963年Ms7．1都兰地震，1973年Ms7．3玛尼地震，1997年Mw7．5玛尼地震和2001年Mw7．8昆仑山口西地震。研究了大地震之间的应力转移和断层相互作用，计算了弹性半空间介质中地震断层措动在后续地震破裂面上产生的库仑破裂应力变化。结果表明，前面4个地震均造成后续地震的库仑破裂应力增加，有利于后续地震的发生。昆仑山口西地震之后应力变化场的计算表明东昆仑断裂中段的东大滩一西大难段的库仑破裂应力显增加，变化值达0．006～0．02MPa，预示看这一地区地震危险性的增加。     

昆仑山口西8．1级地震的应力触发作用及对周边断层的影响

采用可变滑动震源模型,计算Ms8．1昆仑山口西地震产生的库仑破裂应力变化,解释余震的空间分布特征。以此为基础,分析了此次大地震在周边断层上产生的应力变化及其对地震活动性的影响。结果表明,两个模型和两种方法计算得到的应力变化均呈现相似的分布特征。应力增加区与后续地震活动的对应关系,反映昆仑山口西地震对后续地震活动的触发效应。玛尼断裂带和东昆仑断裂带受应力变化影响最明显。     

2014年2月12日于田M_S7.3地震前后的微震活动集中区及对地震危险区的可能指示

2001年以来,在巴颜喀喇地块周缘相继发生2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震、2008年汶川8.0级地震、2010年玉树7.1级地震、2012年芦山7.0级地震等。对比分析昆仑山口西8.1级地震前、后相同时间长度内,与其地球动力学上相关区域的地震应变释放强度变化特征,发现该地震发生之后,龙门山地区、巴塘地区、温泉盆地西侧南北向谷地的地震应变释放明显增强,第一个地区发生了汶川地震,第二个地区与玉树地震的发生相关,说明巴颜喀喇地块北边界东昆仑断裂带上发生地震破裂后,其南侧的物质向东南运移,将构造变形集中在龙门山构造带上,并在其上发生破裂。该震例说明基于地震地质背景分析、找出的地球动力学上相关联的地震活动增强区域是中长期破坏性地震的易发区。2014年2月12日新疆于田发生MS7.3地震后,阿尔金断裂带东部与祁连山构造带交汇地区的地震频度和地震应变释放明显增强,该区域的中长期地震危险性值得关注。     

地壳形变与强震地点预测问题与认识

通过对昆仑山口西8.1级地震和汶川8.0级地震震前GPS资料所反映的孕震特征的分析, 对地壳形变资料应用于孕震机理和地震预测研究中在最近几十年的主要进展进行了回顾分析, 并对比了中外学者针对上述问题科学思路的异同。 在此基础上, 对走滑型和倾滑型地震断层带区域孕震形变场特征进行分析, 强调孕震过程地壳形变的认识模式需要从孕震断层拓展到区域甚至更大区域, 并需从多尺度地壳形变时空过程来认识强震孕震形变动态特征, 进而获取强震预测判据。     

东昆仑断裂滑动速率变化及其对2017年九寨沟地震的应力加载

为了解东昆仑断裂活动对2017年8月8日九寨沟M_S7.0地震的影响,本文选取1999—2007年、2013—2017年GPS速度场作为约束,基于块体-位错模型反演计算东昆仑断裂两个时间段的块体运动速率、断裂滑动速率和滑动亏损率,并进一步研究青藏高原东缘最大剪应变率场和九寨沟震区的震间库仑应力累积速率.结果显示,东昆仑断裂中西段左旋走滑速率较高,东段走滑速率较低,自西向东逐步递减,存在明显的梯度.在两个时间段,阿坝块体刚性运动的方向顺时针偏转0.2°,运动速率由12.22mm·a^-1增大到15.96mm·a^-1;东昆仑断裂左旋走滑速率升高,其中西段较为明显(升高约1.2±0.3mm·a^-1);东昆仑断裂东段闭锁深度和闭锁程度增加;2013—2017年,东昆仑断裂滑动引起的九寨沟震区库仑应力累积速率是1999—2007年的3倍,最大剪应变率也明显升高.因此本文认为:2008年汶川地震和2013年芦山地震后,龙门山断裂部分解锁,阿坝地块活动性增强,东昆仑断裂滑动速率增大,导致九寨沟震区库仑应力加载速率增加,加速了九寨沟地震的孕育过程.     

东昆仑断裂带强震构造条件研究

2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8．1级地震的发震构造－东昆仑活动断裂带，从构造环境、深部构造、断裂运动条件、断裂结构条件及地震活动特征等方面，都具有特殊的强震构造背景。其地震激动具有周期短、频度低、强度大的特点。地震活动性表现出的强震孕育特征，可作为东昆仑断裂带未来强震的预报指标。     

基于灰色关联度的鲜水河断裂活动特性与大震关系研究

利用跨断层流动形变资料,基于灰色关联度分析方法,提炼反映鲜水河断裂构造变形特征方式、量值水平及其动态演化过程、分段差异性的走滑、张压、垂向活动参量新综合指标,研究其与断裂附近强震孕育—发生、与周围大尺度区域大震孕育或同震、调整影响的可能关系.结果表明:(1)鲜水河断裂左旋走滑占主要优势;(2)小金6.3级、雅江6级地震前活动参量累积变化曲线出现过加速或转折等异常变化;(3)可能观测到昆仑山口西8.1级震后调整影响、汶川8.0级震前应力场强化或扰动影响、玉树7.1级震后短期内左旋加速影响.     

THE TECTONIC ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF AWANCANG FAULT IN THE LATE QUATERNARY,THE SUB-STRAND OF THE EASTERN KUNLUN FAULT

It is well known that the slip rate of Kunlun Fault descends at the east segment, but little known about the Awancang Fault and its role in strain partitioning with Kunlun Fault. Whether the sub-strand(Awancang Fault) can rupture simultaneously with Kunlun Fault remains unknown. Based on field investigations, aerial-photo morphological analysis, topographic surveys and ¹⁴C dating of alluvial surfaces, we used displaced terrace risers to estimate geological slip rates along the Awancang Fault, which lies on the western margin of the Ruoergai Basin and the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau, the results indicate that the slip rate is 3mm/a in the middle Holocene, similar to the reduced value of the Kunlun Fault. The fault consists of two segments with strike N50° W, located at distance about 16km, and converged to single stand to the SE direction. Our results demonstrate that the Awancang fault zone is predominantly left-lateral with a small amount of northeast-verging thrust component. The slip rates decrease sharply about 4mm/a from west to east between the intersection zone of the Awancang Fault and Kunlun Fault. Together with our previous trenching results on the Kunlun Fault, the comparison with slip rates at the Kunlun fault zone suggests that the Awancang fault zone has an important role in strain partitioning for east extension of Kunlun Fault in eastern Tibet. At the same time, the 15km long surface rupture zone of the southeast segment was found at the Awancang Fault. By dating the latest faulted geomorphologic surface, the last event may be since the 1766±54 Cal a BP. Through analysis of the trench, there are four paleoearthquake events identified recurring in situ on the Awancang Fault and the latest event is since (850±30)a BP. The slip rate of the Awancang Fault is almost equivalent to the descending value of the eastern part of the east Kunlun Fault, which can well explain the slip rate decreasing of the eastern part of the east Kunlun Fault(the Maqin-Maqu segment)and the characteristics of the structure dynamics of the eastern edge of the Tibet Plateau. The falling slip rate gradient of the eastern Kunlun Fault corresponds to the geometric characteristic. It is the Awancang Fault, the strand of the East Kunlun Fault that accommodates the strain distribution of the eastward extension of the east Kunlun Fault. This study is helpful to seismic hazard assessment and understanding the deformation mechanism in eastern Tibet.     

对2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震前断层带红外增温异常的讨论

利用NOAA卫星热红外遥感图像对东昆仑断裂带进行解译分析 ,并结合红外亮温的数值化处理 ,对比研究了地震活动比较平静的 1 999年和 2 0 0 1年昆仑山 8 1级地震前后的资料。结果表明 ,季节性的气象因素对断裂带的影响很大。在初冬季节 ,断裂带内的红外亮温值等于甚至高于周围环境温度。同时对比分析东昆仑断裂与阿尔金断裂的亮度温度也发现 ,在秋冬季的季节过渡期 ,气象因素对不同地物热惯量的影响很大。因此认为 ,前人提出的 2 0 0 1年 1 1月 1 4日发生在东昆仑断裂带上的 8 1级地震的震前红外辐射的增温异常 ,其中包含了随季节变化的自然现象 ,与地震有关的异常信息还有待于进一步探讨     

GPS初步结果揭示的中国大陆水平应变场与构造变形

根据中国大陆不同来源的多个GPS区域监测网1991～1999年间的观测资料和“中国地壳运动观测网络”基本网1998～2000年的观测资料，联合处理得到中国大陆地壳水平运动速度场结果，通过最小二乘配置法建立中国大陆水平运动速度场模型，获得了基于连续介质假设的中国大陆水平应变场（或称为视应变场）初步结果. 分析了水平运动、应变场空间分布特征及其与强震的关系，并简要分析了2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8.1级大地震的区域构造变形背景. 结果表明：中国大陆中西部构造变形强烈，应变速率值高，又以青藏块体及其边缘和新疆西部最为显著. 除川滇、新疆西部外，大部分地区的近东西向断裂存在左旋剪切变形，近南北向的断裂存在右旋剪切变形. 而东部地区构造变形相对较弱. 强震通常发生在剪切应变率的高值区及其边缘，尤其是与构造变形背景相一致的剪应变率高值区. 昆仑山口西8.1级地震发生在最显著的东西向左旋剪切应变率高值区，从该区域的应变状态分析，具备近东西向断裂产生巨型走滑破裂错动的构造变形背景.     

昆仑山口西Ms8.1地震前远场应变异常研究

依据6个钻孔应力-应变连续观测资料，研究了区域应力场的变化，结果表明在2000年10月整个青藏高原周边应力场发生了显著的变化．与昆仑山口西8．1级地震前的地震活动时空分布进行了对比，研究发现发生在2000年9月的兴海震群和2000年10—11月的唐古拉山震群是这次8．1级地震在孕震过程中的一次应力积聚释放的结果．     

ELECTRICAL STRUCTURE OF THE 2017 MS7.0 JIUZHAIGOU EARTHQUAKE REGION AND THE EASTERN TERMINUS OF THE EAST KUNLUN FAULT

The East Kunlun Fault is a giant fault in northern Tibetan, extending eastward and a boundary between the Songpan-Ganzi block and the West Qinling orogenic zone. The East Kunlun Fault branches out into a horsetail structure which is formed by several branch faults. The 2017 Jiuzhaigou M_S7.0 earthquake occurred in the horsetail structure of the East Kunlun Fault and caused huge casualties. As one of several major faults that regulate the expansion of the Tibetan plateau, the complexity of the deep extension geometry of the East Kunlun Fault has also attracted a large number of geophysical exploration studies in this area, but only a few are across the Jiuzhaigou earthquake region. Changes in pressure or slip caused by the fluid can cause changes in fault activity. The presence of fluid can cause the conductivity of the rock mass inside the fault zone to increase significantly. MT method is the most sensitive geophysical method to reflect the conductivity of the rock mass. Thus MT is often used to study the segmented structure of active fault zones. In recent years MT exploration has been carried out in several earthquake regions and the results suggest that the location of main shock and aftershocks are controlled by the resistivity structure. In order to study the deep extension characteristics of the East Kunlun Fault and the distribution of the medium properties within the fault zone, we carried out a MT exploration study across the Tazang section of the East Kunlun Fault in 2016. The profile in this study crosses the Jiuzhaigou earthquake region. Other two MT profiles that cross the Maqu section of East Kunlun Fault performed by previous researches are also collected. Phase tensor decomposition is used in this paper to analyze the dimensionality and the change in resistivity with depth. The structure of Songpan-Ganzi block is simple from deep to shallow. The structure of West Qinlin orogenic zone is complex in the east and simple in the west. The structure near the East Kunlun Fault is complex. We use 3D inversion to image the three MT profiles and obtained 3D electrical structure along three profiles. The root-mean-square misfit of inversions is 2.60 and 2.70. Our results reveal that in the tightened northwest part of the horsetail structure, the East Kunlun Fault, the Bailongjiang Fault, and the Guanggaishan-Dieshan Fault are electrical boundaries that dip to the southwest. The three faults combine in the mid-lower crust to form a "flower structure" that expands from south to north. In the southeastward spreading part of the horsetail structure, the north section of the Huya Fault is an electrical boundary that extends deep. The Tazang Fault has obvious smaller scale than the Huya Fault. The Minjiang Fault is an electrical boundary in the upper crust. The Huya Fault and the Tazang Fault form a one-side flower structure. The Bailongjiang and the Guanggaishan-Dieshan Fault form a "flower structure" that expands from south to north too. The two "flower structures" combine in the high conductivity layer of mid-lower crust. In Songpan-Ganzi block, there is a three-layer structure where the second layer is a high conductivity layer. In the West Qinling orogenic zone, there is a similar structure with the Songpan-Ganzi block, but the high conductivity layer in the West Qinling orogenic zone is shallower than the high conductivity layer in the Songpan-Ganzi block. The hypocenter of 2017 M_S7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake is between the high and low resistivity bodies at the shallow northeastern boundary of the high conductivity layer. The low resistivity body is prone to move and deform. The high resistivity body blocked the movement of low resistivity body. Such a structure and the movement mode cause the uplift near the East Kunlun Fault. The electrical structure and rheological structure of Jiuzhaigou earthquake region suggest that the focal depth of the earthquake is less than 11km. The Huya Fault extends deeper than the Tazang Fault. The seismogenic fault of the 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake is the Huya Fault. The high conductivity layer is deep in the southwest and shallow in the northeast, which indicates that the northeast movement of Tibetan plateau is the cause of the 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake.     

2021年青海玛多MS7.4地震同震应力场与形变台站同震阶变分布关系探讨

利用基于升、降轨InSAR形变场及余震精定位结果反演得到的同震滑动模型,通过PSGRN/PSCMP程序获得同震水平形变场及应力场分布特征,结合玛多M_S7.4地震周边形变同震阶变台站分布特征,探讨同震应力场变化与同震阶变台站分布间的关系。模拟得到的水平形变场结果显示,此次玛多地震为左旋走滑运动特征,水平形变量主要集中在巴颜喀拉块体内,其次是北部的柴达木块体;羌塘块体以及祁连块体同震水平位移量较小;昆仑山口-江错断裂作为一条NE倾向的走滑型断裂,断层上盘区域滑动量明显大于下盘,模拟得到的最大水平形变量达1380mm;形变同震阶变的台站主要集中分布在祁连山断裂带中东段以及西秦岭等地区,祁连山断裂带中东段位于此次玛多地震同震正应力变化正值区域,而西秦岭等地区则处于玛多地震同震剪切应力变化的正值区域,即出现同震阶变的台站与同震应力场变化的正值区域具有较好的一致性。     

基于大地形变监测的大震预测问题思考

本文以中国西部大地形变监测与地震预测实践为基础, 简要总结回顾了利用大地形变进行强震预测研究的工作思路、方法和一些进展; 进而结合2001年昆仑山口西8.1级、 2008年四川汶川8.0级特大地震前区域地壳运动变形背景和已有的研究结果, 分析和探讨了基于大地形变监测、 并考虑地震构造的差异性来进一步提高大震预测的有效性...     

2004年西藏懂错M_S 5.6地震的宏观烈度调查与控震构造分析

地表调查结果表明,发生在西藏中部的2004年懂错MS5.6地震的极震区位于懂错东侧的贡巴淌—怕尔淌之间,最大烈度为Ⅶ度,宏观震中的地理坐标:31.70°N,91.26°E。此次地震是懂错盆地东缘边界断裂活动的结果。该断裂带是一条长40km左右、NNE走向的全新世活动正断层,在断裂带的北段发育可能形成于全新世晚期的古地震地表破裂带。地表的晚第四纪断裂活动和近期的地震活动特征显示,蓬错-懂错-错那-安多地堑系构成了西藏中部一个重要的长约120km的NE向地震活动带,其北段和中南段是其中应变积累时间更长的地段