软流圈岩浆潮的调制作用与地震轮回关系初探

本文提出软流圈岩浆潮的假设来解释作者所发现的全球主要地震区的大地震都存在１８．６年的地震轮回。文中阐述了岩浆潮存在的可能性及其影响，认为１８．６年分量是岩浆潮的主要分量，并用全球火山活动的１８．６年准周期性和各主要地震区地震期的中心时间呈规则分布来支持岩浆潮假设。周期性地震轮回是一类混沌现象。地震轮回可以认为是全球或某一地区对地球内部和外部因素的非线性相互作用的响应或自组织过程。     

全球主要地震区中源和深源大地震的18．6年轮回

分析全球中源和深源大地震与月球交点运动的关系，确定了１５个地区的中源和深源大地震有明显的１８．６ａ地震轮回。在这１５个地区中，除兴都库什地区外，其余地区的边界与俯冲带的分段性有密切关系。这一发现进一步证实了岩浆潮致上涌可调制地震活动的岩浆潮假设，并表明岩浆潮致上涌的影响范围在深部和浅部明显不同，中源和深源地震的发生很可能和岩浆上涌有关。     

1995年7月12日云南孟连中缅边界7.3级地震中短临预防及前兆特征（2）：…

研究讨论了云南强震活动的时空特征，指出区内Ｍ≥６．８级地震呈现活跃与平静；主体活动区东西交替及时空轮回迁移等特征。据此指出１９８８年云南地区进入了Ｍ≥６．８级地震强活跃期，主要体地在云南西部，１９９５－１９９７年存在发生６－７甚至７级以上地震的危险。     

1993年7—9月的全球地震动态

１９９３年第三季度，全球地震活动水平为中等偏高，明显高于上半年平均水平。日本北海道西南近海发生７．６级浅源地震，但不属于日本海沟地震。埃及西奈半岛发生５．７级地震，为今年亚欧带西段之最大地震。马里亚纳群岛发生８．１级中深震，使西北太平洋地区地震水平达到全球第一。兴都库什地区接连发生三次较大中深震，可能对我国西部地区地震活动有影响。墨西哥恰帕斯州近海发生７．３级地震，美洲带新的地震活动轮回正式开始。印度南部发生６．３级中强震，属于板内地震。     

东南沿海地震区地震活动特性与未来趋势分析

根据地震资料，对东南沿海地震区地震活动特下及未来趋势进行了初步分析与研究，结果表明：（１）从地震活动轮回分析，东南沿海地震区从１９５９年开始的第五个轮回中的地震活动时段，估计将延续到２０３１年前后结束，而后转入本轮回的平静时段；（２）２０００年以前，研究区有可能发生１次Ｍｓ≥６．０地震，到２００５到则最多发生２次；（３）东南沿海地震区下一次发生Ｍｓ≥６．０地震的地区可能在河源－邵武地震带上，尤其可     

全球Ms≥73／4级地震的定向迁移

对全球尺度的６条大地震带内１９００－１９９０年中１８４次Ｍｓ≥７３／４级地震进行了沿地震带方向定向迁移的分析，获得了全球统一的地震定向迁移规律，总体是由西向东，迁移速度由７００ｋｍ／ａ变为１５０ｋｍ／ａ，此现象可以作多种暂态地球动力作用过程的推论，如以大西洋脊间歇式张裂引起上地幔软流物质自西向东运动，呈现纵波式的振荡传播；也可解释为非洲板块，阿拉伯板块和印度板块自西南向东北对欧亚地震带依次的推压引     

中国大陆大震形势研究

本文分析了１５００－１９９４年间中国大陆７级以上地震活动的时空分布特征，得出强弱活跃期相间交替出现，地震轮回内活跃期与一个轮回持续时间之比服从准黄金分割，活跃期具三幕式结构，一个活跃段一般仅有一个主体活动区、１－２个参与活动区等结论。据此分析认为，１９７７年后中国大陆已进入第四个轮回的相对平静期，并将持续３０年左右。     

中国主要地震活动区的地震间隙分布

结合地震间隙和强度变化分析了本世纪全国及国内主要地震活动区中强以 上地震活动特征,间隙大多在５．５ａ内,一半以上在２．５ａ内,最大间隙近１８ａ.５０年代 以后全国７．５级以上和７．０级以上、青藏块体７．０级以上地震活动及近２０ａ来台湾 ７．０级以上、华北和四川６．０级以上地震活动明显减弱,２０－３０年代青藏块体北部大 震的活动影响一直持续到７０年代,５．０－６．５级地震活动自８０年代明显增强,云南 ７０年代后形成的地震活动高潮实际上从６０年代就开始增强,华北和台湾地区表现 了强震前活动增强而甘宁青地区表现了强震后活动衰减的典型过程,制约我国地震 活动的大三角应力场、东部应力场和全球应力场具有长期稳定的２０ａ周期性,后面的 应力场依次滞后于前一个应力场约１／４个周期,前两者起主导作用,青藏块体东北缘 的地震活动除受东部应力场的影响外,还与青藏块体地壳物质东流的重要作用有关, 今后几年要特别注意四川和甘宁青６．０级以上、甘肃地区５．０级以上及新疆７．０级 以上地震。     

1995年7月12日云南孟连中缅边界7.3级地震中短临预报及前兆特征(2)——云南强震活动特征及孟连7.3级地震前的地震学异常

研究讨论了云南强震活动的时空特征，指出区内Ｍ≥６８级地震呈现活跃与平静；主体活动区东西交替及时空轮回迁移等特征。据此指出１９８８年云南地区进入了Ｍ≥６８级地震强震活跃期，主体地区在云南西部，１９９５—１９９７年存在发生６—７甚至７级以上地震的危险。同时讨论了孟连７３级地震前相关区地震活动，滇西北、滇西南有关ｂ值、小震频度、调制比异常等８种地震学异常的空间分布、时间进程等特征。特别指出了１９９４年９月至１９９５年５月滇西南地区Ｍ≥４７级地震形成的时空密集现象，及其在短临阶段对震级及地点方面判断的重要作用。     

1999年1～6月全球地震综述

１９９９年上半年,全球共发生６级以上地震４０次,属中等水平,太平洋西北边缘地震活跃趋势。中印边界发生６．７级强烈地震。一个新的全球地震活动轮回正在开始。     

大地震的18.6年周期

将全球分为15个研究区,用1900~2009年M_W≥7.0地震目录,统计分析了各区大地震与月球交点运动周期的关系,得出15个研究区中有10个区,大地震存在统计意义上的18.6 a周期:活跃段为12.4 a,平静段为6.2 a;环太平洋地震带北、南、西、东4大区的大地震,不仅有这样的周期,而且其地震活跃段的时间存在一定规律.用第6个18.6 a(1991~2009年)期间的大地震,检验据前5个18.6 a(1900~1990年)地震目录所得18.6 a 周期的稳定性和实用性,发现有这种周期的地区多数的周期性是稳定的.大地震18.6 a周期的可能成因有: (1)18.6 a潮波通过调制日潮和半日潮调制大地震; (2)上地幔内流体的潮汐(地内潮)作用; (3)18.6 a潮波通过影响地球自转变化调制大地震.     

全球主要地震区的18.6年地震轮回

本文根据月球交点运动周期规律,发现全球主要地震区的浅源大地震(1897—1990,Ms≥7.0)都存在18.6年地震轮回:活跃期为12.4年,平静期为6.2年。根据最好的统计结果,13个研究区中有4个区这种轮回存在的置信水平为95%,有9个区为98%。本文给出了各研究区的范围、各活跃期的具体时间、x~2检验结果和时空分布图。本文还定义了标志震级Mm来反映各研究区不同的地震活动水平。本文的结果可以充分代表全球浅源大地震的活动图象,为认识地震轮回的机制和地震的混沌性提供了新的资料。     

龙岗火山区尾波Q值的初步研究

基于sato单次散射模型,利用2007年5月至2010年2月龙岗火山测震台网记录到的发生在火山区及邻近地区内的41次Mt.≥1.6地震的波形资料,计算了龙岗火山区的尾波Q值,得出尾波Q值与频率的关系为Q(f)=(42.65±7.53)f(0.845 9+0.164 2),具有以低Q值高η值为特征的火山构造活跃地区的尾波...     

地震潮汐触发

地震潮汐触发是指由潮汐引起的应力变化而触发地震的现象,对地震潮汐触发的研究可能为断层错动引发地震的条件提供有价值的线索,一直受到国内外研究者的关注,本文对相关研究方法和研究结果进行了简要介绍和评述。在早期,地震潮汐触发研究主要是在地震活动中寻找潮汐周期。随着研究的深入,运用统计检验方法对地震活动与潮汐之间的相关性进行严格检验。时至今日,地震是否被潮汐触发的问题仍然悬而未决。不过,有研究结果表明,在强震发生前数年,震源区地震活动往往受到潮汐触发,如果这个结果被证实,将为地震预测研究提供新的线索。      

Crustal S-wave velocity structure of the Yellowstone region using a seismic ambient noise method

The Yellowstone volcano is one of the largest active volcanoes in the world, and its potential hazards demand detailed seismological and geodetic studies. Previous studies with travel time tomography and receiver functions have revealed a low-velocity layer in the crust beneath the Yellowstone volcano, suggesting the presence of a magma chamber at depth. We use ambient seismic noise from regional seismic stations to retrieve short-period surface waves and then study the shallow shear velocity structure of the Yellowstone region by surface wave dispersion analysis. We first obtained a crustal model of the area outside of the Yellowstone volcano and then constructed an absolute shear wave velocity structure in combination with receiver function results for the crust beneath the Yellowstone volcano. The velocity model shows a low-velocity layer with shear velocity at around 1.3 km/s, suggesting that a large-scale magma chamber exists at shallow levels within the crust of the Yellowstone volcanic region.     

Angola seismicity

This work describes the development of the Angolan earthquake catalog and seismicity distribution in the Southwestern African Plate, in Angola. This region is one of the least seismically active, even for stable continental regions (SCRs) in the world. The maximum known earthquake had a magnitude of 6.0 M_s, while events with magnitudes of 4.5 have return period of about 10 years. Events with magnitude 5 and above occur with return period of about 20 years. Five seismic zones can be confirmed in Angola, within and along craton edges and in the sedimentary basins including offshore. Overall, the exposed cratonic regions tend to have more earthquakes compared to other regions such as sedimentary basins. Earthquakes tend to occur in Archaic rocks, especially inside preexisting weakness zones and in tectonic-magmatic reactivation zones of Mesozoic and Meso-Cenozoic, associated with the installation of a wide variety of intrusive rocks, strongly marked by intense tectonism. This fact can be explained by the models of preexisting weakness zones and stress concentration near intersecting structures. The Angolan passive margin is also a new region where seismic activity occurs. Although clear differences are found between different areas along the passive margin, in the middle near Porto Amboim city, seismic activity is more frequent compared with northwestern and southwestern regions.     

Seismic properties in the eastern part of the South Aegean volcanic arc

The South Aegean active volcanic arc lies along the 150-km seismic isodepth of a Benioffzone and consists in andesitic, dacitic and rhyolitic volcanoes of an orogenic calc-alkaline type. In the eastern part of the arc there are two main volcanic sites in the Nisyros and Kos islands. High shallow and intermediate depth seismic activity occurs in this volcanic area. Seismological data concerning the 1911–1980 period have been used to investigate seismic properties in that area. Two, distinct regions with different seismotectonic features have been defined. The internal region (Nisyros active volcano and its proximity) is characterized by a shallow, thin seismogenetic layer with abnormally highb-value, locally concentrated stresses, low seismicity and highly heterogeneous structure. These features are probably due to a magmatic body intruded in shallow depths within the crust. The possibility of magma formation in the upper surface of the descending slab or within the upper mantle wedge overlying this slab in the Nisyros-Kos area is herein discussed. On the contrary, the remaining (external) region, including the non-active volcanic island of Kos, is characterized by normal for tectonic shocksb-value, thick seismogenetic layer and high seismicity. It seems that in this region there is not a magmatic intrusion at least in shallow depths within the crust.     

Q c of three component seismograms of volcanic microearthquakes at Campi Flegrei volcanic area — Southern Italy

Digital recordings of three component microearthquake codas from shallow seismic events in the volcanic region of Campi Flegrei — Southern Italy — were used with an automatic technique to calculate the attenuation factorQ _c (codaQ) in the hypothesis of singleS toS backscattering.Results show the same value ofQ for each of the three components. This result is interpreted as due to isotropicS wave radiation pattern.A check of the coda method was performed using a single station method based on simple assumptions on the direct SH wave spectrum. Single stationQ was averaged over the stations and over the earthquakes. Results show that the two methods lead to comparable results.A frequency dependence quite different from that evaluated in active tectonic regions was found for coda attenuation, comparable to other volcanic areas throughout the world. This is interpreted as due to the presence of magma that affects anelasticity and scattering.