青藏工程走廊地震危险性对比分析及区划

潜在震源区地震活动性参数、地震动衰减关系对地震危险性分析结果至关重要。以中国第五代地震动区划图潜在震源区划分方案为基础,采用2类震级分档分别建立自编及五代图潜在震源区空间分布函数,收集4组青藏高原及周缘地区地震动衰减关系,采用不同组合对青藏工程走廊沿线的81个场点进行概率地震危险性分析计算,得到50年超越概率10%(地震重现期475年)的各场点基岩地震动峰值加速度(PGA),并转换为一般场地(Ⅱ类)PGA,对计算结果进行对比分析,并与第五代地震动区划图归档上下限值进行比较。结果显示:采用我国西部地区地震动衰减关系计算得到的PGA最大,采用云南地区地震动衰减关系得到的PGA最小,采用川藏地区及青藏高原东北缘地震动衰减关系时居中;在同一地震动衰减关系下,采用自编空间分布函数计算得到的PGA普遍略大于采用第五代图空间分布函数时;在震级上限为8.5的潜在震源区及附近地区,潜在震源区空间分布函数震级分档对计算结果有显著影响。综合分析表明,采用自编Ⅱ型震级分档空间分布函数方案与川藏地区地震动衰减关系组合方案的计算结果最为理想。最后,采用该组合方案对青藏工程走廊50年超越概率10%的基岩场地PGA及一般场地PGA进行了区划。     

城市群地震灾害风险评估方法的一点探索

基于粤港澳大湾区地震灾害风险评估的初步成果,分析了湾区城市群地震环境、承灾体分布和场地特点,提出了两种确定地震输入的设定地震原则,即潜在震源区设定地震原则和最大风险设定地震原则,按照这两种原则可以更加准确地进行城市群地震灾害风险评估。在前人工作的基础上,提出了考虑场地条件影响的地震灾害风险表达式,探索了适合三维模拟非一致激励地震动输入的建筑物和生命线工程灾害风险评估方法,提出了建筑物和生命线工程灾害风险评估中考虑场地影响的思路,为客观地评估城市群地震灾害和损失风险提出了可参考的建议。      

巴基斯坦沿海地区地震危险性分析

通过确定性和概率性方法，对发展迅速的巴基斯坦沿海地区进行了地震危险性评估．根据该地区的地震构造和地质条件，确定了5个地震区域的11个断层作为该地区的潜在震源，计算了每个潜在震源的最大可能震级．根据与之相关震源的最大可信震级，计算了7个沿海城市的峰值加速度（PGA）．瓜达尔（Gwadar）和奥尔马腊（Ormara）的峰值加速度分别为0.21和0.25 g，处于地震危险性水平较高的地区；杜尔伯德（Turbat）和卡拉奇（Karachi）位于地震危险性水平较低的地区，峰值加速度小于0.1 g．同时，分别绘制了50年和100年超越概率为10％的PGA区划图，区划图的分区间隔为0.05 g．      

用随机模拟方法研究设定地震地面运动

用随机模拟方法研究设定地震地面运动可分两步进行：（1）采用中小地震的数字观测资料确定研究区路径、场地参数；（2）把确定的参数应用到研究区的强地面运动随机模拟中. 为此，本文首先采用了一种可行的方法，分离软基岩场地效应和非弹性衰减的影响，并把二者分别确定出来. 研究区北部中软基岩场地的平均效应在2～4Hz频率范围为15倍左右；研究区的S波品质因子为QS＝278f[KG*2]0.346. 把这些参数用于研究区的场地和路径模型中，并选择单拐角频率震源谱模型，随机模拟了研究区未来中强地震可能在北天山中段可能造成的地面运动，模拟加速度时程和反应谱可以服务于本地区的地震灾害预测和建筑物可靠性验算.     

基于动态时间规整的一维土层地震反应分析方法的定量评价

为定量评价一维土层地震反应分析方法的计算加速度反应谱和实测记录之间的差距,收集整理2 418组DEEPSOIL、SHAKE2000、SOILQUAKE和SOILRESPONSE四种一维数值模拟方法的计算加速度反应谱,并以日本KiK-net强震台网的实测记录为基准,验证动态时间规整(Dynamic Time Warping, DTW)算法用于定量评价反应谱差距大小的适用性,对比分析不同场地类别和不同地表峰值加速度(Peak Ground Acceleration, PGA)区间的实测和计算加速度反应谱之间的DTW距离。结果表明：Ⅱ类场地下,PGA小于0.2g时,四种方法的平均DTW距离相差不大,PGA大于0.2g时SOILQUAKE方法的平均DTW距离较小;Ⅲ类场地下,PGA小于0.2g时DEEPSOIL方法的平均DTW距离较小,PGA大于0.2g时SOILRESPONSE方法的平均DTW距离较小;Ⅳ类场地下,PGA小于0.1g时DEEPSOIL方法的平均DTW距离较小,PGA大于0.1g时SOILRESPONSE方法的平均DTW距离较小;不同场地类别下,四种方法的DTW距离均随PGA的...     

鲁甸地震强震动记录与地震动衰减模型的对比研究

利用2014年鲁甸M_S6.5地震断层距小于300 km的32个自由场地观测台站的地震动加速度记录,分析了地震动峰值加速度(PGA)和峰值速度(PGV)的空间分布特征,并对已有地震动衰减模型中的NGA-West2四个模型和1个中国川藏区模型进行了比较分析.研究表明,地震动PGA和PGV衰减最快的方向与断层主破裂方向一致.在整个断层距(R_(rup))范围内大多数台站的地震动PGA、PGV和加速度反应谱值(Sa(T=0.1、5.0 s))均位于NGA-West2四个模型预测曲线的±1倍标准差之外.PGA、PGV和Sa(T=5.0 s)的事件内残差均值在-1.43～-0.74之间.Sa(T=0.01～5.0 s)事件内残差均值在整个距离范围内均表现出系统性偏负.NGA-West2四个模型的PGA事件内残差的空间分布特征相似,其最大正值和最大负值分布区域的震源-场地方位角约为-90°和90°,与主破裂断层方向垂直,所处地势较为平坦且台站场地V_(S30)相对较大.NGA-West2四个模型总体上会较大地高估鲁甸地震整个断层距范围内各个周期尤其是短周期(T1.0 s)的地震动加速度反应谱值.考虑本地区实际地震资料的中国川藏区地震动衰减模型也会在一定程度上高估鲁甸地震大多数台站的地震动加速度反应谱值,但是相对于NGA-West2四个模型,其预测值更接近鲁甸地震的实际观测值.     

唐山区域概率地震危险性研究

依据历史地震重演和构造类比原则对唐山地区进行潜在震源区划分,共确定出5个对研究区影响较大的潜在震源区。在确定地震活动性参数和地震动衰减关系后,将研究区网格化成60个均匀的独立场地单元,计算每个场地单元未来可能遭受相应超越概率的地震动峰值加速度;通过插值分析,将研究区原有地震区划中的基岩峰值加速度等值线间隔由0.05 g进一步细化为0.01 g;得到研究区50年超越概率为10%的基岩水平地震动峰值加速度分布图,表明唐山8.0级潜在震源区对研究区未来影响最大。     

对二滩水电站坝区场地地面运动的估计

本文以二滩地区为例,介绍如何结合地震危险性分析的结果,采用理论模拟方法估计工作地区近场强地面运动情况,为工程抗震设计提供必需的地面运动动力学参数。 文中采用理论方法计算剪切位错点源的格林函数;根据断裂动力学模型、近场地面峰值加速度衰减曲线和场地附近的加速度谱来标定震源模型;计算了若在坝区附近发生M_s=6.2级地震时场地的综合地震图、加速度傅氏谱和反应谱等。由理论模拟计算的峰值加速度衰减曲线和观测结果符合较好。在震中距为20km处的加速度谱的截止频率f_max与观测值相吻合（约为8 Hz左右）,相应的峰值加速度为211cm/s²,振动持续时间为3.4秒。     

2021年5月21日云南漾濞MS6.4地震随机有限断层三维地震动模拟

2021年5月21日云南省大理州漾濞县发生MS6.4 地震,震中附近遭受了强烈地震破坏.为预测此次地震的地震动影响场,利用震源运动学破裂随机模型,基于随机有限断层三维地震动模拟方法,给出了此次地震中 28个触发强震动台站的三分量加速度时程模拟记录,并结合强震动观测记录,估计了此次地震的地震应力降及震源破裂过程,进一步模拟给出了此次地震中 2823 个虚拟观测点的三分量加速度时程.结果表明,模拟记录的峰值地面加速度(PGA)、峰值地面速度(PGV)与观测值接近,并体现了地震动峰值的衰减规律、近场饱和效应和破裂方向性效应;模拟与观测记录的 5%阻尼比拟加速度反应谱(PSA)的幅值接近、谱形相似,在0.05～10 s周期段,模拟记录可以很好地预测地震动.基于三分量模拟记录给出了漾濞MS 6.4 地震的仪器测定地震烈度图,与云南省地震局发布的烈度图接近,极震区烈度最高可达Ⅷ度,震源破裂方向性导致震中 SE方向的烈度普遍高于 NW方向,受局部场地条件影响沿洱海西侧出现高烈度异常区.     

汶川地震不同场地反应谱平台值统计分析

加速度反应谱平台值表征地震动的强度特性,场地条件是影响反应谱平台值的一个重要因素.本文选取6组同一地区断层距相近而场地条件不同的强震记录,对其标准化的加速度反应谱形状及平台值进行分析;并以汶川地震中173个有详细地勘场地上的强震记录为基础,统计分析了不同场地类别和断层距区间内的加速度反应谱平台值.本文研究结果显示,场地条件对加速度反应谱平台值有较大影响,随着场地变软,加速度反应谱平台值增大.本文定义了场地影响系数,计算并给出了不同地面峰值加速度对应的场地影响系数.     

Spectral characteristics of the seismic hazard between the alps and the dinarides

Empirical correlations between response spectra, magnitude, distance from the source and geological site conditions are introduced in a regional study of seismic hazard. A 350-year earthquake catalogue is treated by means of the statistics of extremes and both the spectral amplitudes (pseudovelocity) corresponding to a series of frequency bands are separately mapped, and the complete predicted response spectra calculated at some sites. Three kinds of geological site conditions are considered: thick and thin (less than 20 m deep) alluvium, and rock. A particular dependence of the results on the geographical distribution of earthquakes and on their magnitudes is commented. The seismic hazard of the study area is also computed by applying a traditional regression between peak ground velocity, magnitude and distance; a comparison with the seismic hazard given by the frequency dependent psuedovelocity indicates the extent of the uncertainty associated with the common practice of scaling response spectra directly from ground motion parameters.     

以空间光滑的地震活动性模型为空间分布函数的地震危险性分析方法

根据华北地区的地震目录,建立了4个空间光滑的地震活动性模型,并以这些模型为空间分布函数,将华北地震区每个地震带的地震年发生率分配到空间格点中,计算这一地区的地震危险性．结果表明,采用仪器记录地震计算得到的地震活动性模型和地震危险性结果能够反映华北地区现今的地震活动水平和地震危险性水平,符合人们对现今华北地区地震危险性的认识;采用历史破坏性地震（Mge;4.7）计算的地震活动性模型和地震危险性结果,较好地反映了华北地区中强地震活动区的地震危险性水平;以地震应变计算地震活动率,并根据点椭圆模型和线椭圆模型计算得到的地震活动性模型,能够较好地反映大地震的活动水平和空间构造特征．将根据4个模型计算得到的50年超越概率10%峰值加速度（PGA）分布加权平均,得到综合的华北地区PGA分布,并将该PGA分布与根据《中国地震动参数区划图》中综合潜源方案计算得到的50年超越概率10%的PGA分布做了比较,发现二者无本质差别,均能反映华北地震区的地震危险性水平．当然,二者也具有一定的差异:前者计算得到的符合PGAge;100 cm/s2条件的区域面积明显要比后者的大,而符合PGAge;250 cm/s2条件的区域面积则比后者的要小. 这主要是由于潜在震源区类型和空间分布函数不同造成的．      

南北地震带南段水平向地震动衰减特征

地震动衰减关系作为抗震救灾的重要依据,一直都是现代地震学研究的重点之一.本研究使用南北地震带南段区域2009—2016年共217个地震事件获得随震中距变化的水平向地震动峰值速度(PGV)和地震动峰值加速度(PGA)经验衰减关系,并计算场地响应.研究结果显示PGV衰减关系的拟合效果较PGA更好,两者的距离衰减系数会随事件矩震级增大呈线性减小;相较于大矩震级事件,中矩震级事件在近场可能产生较衰减关系理论值更大的PGV和PGA,同时衰减关系的拟合标准差会随事件矩震级的增大而减小.进行场地响应校正后的PGV和PGA更加符合经验衰减关系,PGA的场地响应影响较PGV更强但两者的趋势一致,并与该区域前人计算得到的地壳Qs值分布对应,表明地壳介质放大或压制地震波振幅和其传递地震波能量的能力是相关联的.本文结果一定程度上揭示了南北地震带南段的地震动强度衰减特征,为未来中国西南部的抗震减灾工作提供了重要的参考.     

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Izmir, Turkey

Izmir, the third largest city and one of the major economic centers in Turkey, has more than three million residents and one-half million buildings. The city, located in a seismically active region in western Anatolia, was a subject of the 1997 RADIUS (Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disaster) project. In this paper, the seismic hazard of Izmir is investigated through probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. First, the seismic setting of Izmir is presented. Considering the statistics of earthquakes that took place in the region during the period 1900–2005, a simple seismic hazard model is used to facilitate the assessment. To account for modeling uncertainties associated with the values of seismicity parameters, a logic tree procedure is employed in carrying out the seismic hazard computations. The resulting weighted average seismic hazard, presented in terms of peak ground acceleration and associated probability of exceedence, could be considered the “best estimate” of seismic hazard for Izmir. Accordingly, for a return period of 475 years, for rock sites, a PGA value of 0.34 g is calculated. This PGA hazard estimate is close to the current code-recommended design acceleration level for Izmir.     

Scenario-Based Seismic Risk Analysis: An Engineering Approach to the Development of Source and Site-Specific Ground Motion Time Histories in Areas of Low Seismicity

Modern engineering design methods require ground motion time histories as input for non-linear dynamic structural analysis. Non-linear dynamic methods of analysis are increasingly applied in the context of probabilistic risk assessments and for cost-effective design of critical infrastructures. In current engineering practice artificial time histories matching deterministic design spectra or probabilistic uniform hazard spectra are most frequently used for engineering analysis. The intermediate step of generation of response spectra can lead to a biased estimate of the potential damage from earthquakes because of insufficient consideration of the true energy content and strong motion duration of earthquakes. Thus, assessment of seismic risk may seem unrealistic. An engineering approach to the development of three-component ground motion time histories has been established which enables consideration of the typical characteristics of seismic sources, regional ground motion attenuation, and the main geotechnical characteristics of the target site. Therefore, the approach is suitable for use in scenario-based risk analysis a larger number of time histories are required for representation of the seismic hazard. Near-field effects are implemented in the stochastic source model using engineering approximations. The approach is suggested for use in areas of low seismicity where ground motion records of larger earthquakes are not available. Uncertainty analysis indicates that ground motions generated by individual earthquakes are well constrained and that the usual lognormal model is not the best choice for predicting the upper tail of the distribution of the ground motions.     

Accounting for site effect in probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard for Romania and Bucharest: a case of deep seismicity in Vrancea zone

The paper presents recent achievements in evaluations of site-dependent seismic hazard in Romania and the capital city of Bucharest caused by the Vrancea focal zone (SE-Carpathians). The zone is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depths 60–170 km. The database that was used for the hazard evaluation includes parameters of seismicity, ground-motion source scaling and attenuation models (Fourier amplitude spectra), and site-dependent spectral amplification functions. Ground-motion characteristics were evaluated on the basis of several hundred records from more than 120 small magnitude (M 3.5–5) earthquakes occurred in 1996–2001 and a few tens of acceleration records obtained during four large (M 7.4, 7.2, 6.9 and 6.3) earthquakes. The data provide a basis for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of peak ground acceleration, peak spectral acceleration and MSK intensity using Fourier amplitude spectra for various exceedance probabilities or average return periods. It has been shown that the influence of geological factors plays very important role in distribution of earthquake ground-motion parameters along the territory of Romania.     

Spatially smoothed seismicity modeling of seismic hazard in Slovenia

A progress report on the mapping effort for construction of a peak ground acceleration (PGA) map of Slovenia for 475-year return period for rock and firm soil is presented. The methodology is similar to that recently applied in Central and Eastern United States. It is based on historical seismicity spatially smoothed to different length scales. The procedure is described by Frankel (1995). He uses the characteristic earthquake recurrence relationship and in his firt version four different seismicity models. We also use four seismicity models. But instead of characteristic earthquake recurrence, we use the doubly truncated exponential magnitude-frequency relationship; no evidence of characteristic earthquakes in Slovenia has been found yet. Three of our models are similar to Frankel's first three models. Model 1 uses spatially smoothed activity rate based on magnitude 3.7 and above events since 1880. Model 2 deals with spatially smoothed activity rate based on magnitude 5.0 abd above events since 1690. Model 3 smoothes the observed activity over the entire region; it represents a uniform seismicity zone. Frankel skipped this model in his latest version (Frankel et al. 1996). In model 4, we introduce a new approach of calculating seismic activity rate taking into account released seismic energy. The ground motion attenuation model of Pugliese and Sabetta (1989) is used for all models. PGA maps for models 1, 2, 3 and 4 have been calculated, and a weighted mean map derived from them. A map of model 1 has been compared with the corresponding source zone map; the two maps do not differ significantly. A worst-case map derived from all four models has also been produced.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Nepal

The seismic ground motion hazard for Nepal has been estimated using a probabilistic approach. A catalogue of earthquakes has been compiled for Nepal and the surrounding region （latitude 26% N and 31.7% N and longitude 79° E and 90° E） from 1255 to 2011. The distribution of catalogued earthquakes, together with available geological and tectonic information were used to delineate twenty-three seismic source seismic source information and probabilistic earthquake hazard prediction relationship, peak ground accelerations （PGAs） have zones in Nepal and the surrounding region. By using the parameters in conjunction with a selected ground motion been calculated at bedrock level with 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The estimated PGA values are in the range of 0.07-0.16 g, 0.21 0.62 g, and 0.38-1.1 g for 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. The resulting ground motion maps show different characteristics of PGA distribution, i.e., high hazard in the far-western and eastern sections, and low hazard in southern Nepal. The quantified PGA values at bedrock level provide information for microzonation studies in different parts of the country.     

Assessment of seismic hazard of roller compacted concrete dam site in Gilgit-Baltistan of northern Pakistan

The proposed site of the Diamer Bhasha Dam in northern Pakistan is situated in an active tectonic zone with intensive seismicity, which makes it necessary for seismic hazard analysis(SHA). Deterministic and probabilistic approaches have been used for SHA of the dam site. The Main Mantle Thrust(MMT), Main Karakaram Thrust(MKT), Raikot-Sassi Fault(RKSF) and Kohistan Fault(KF) have been considered as major seismic sources, all of which can create maximum ground shaking with maximum potential earthquake(MPE). Deterministically estimated MPE for magnitudes of 7.8, 7.7, 7.6, and 7.1 can be produced from MMT, MKT, RKSF and KF, respectively. The corresponding peak ground accelerations(PGA) of 0.07, 0.11, 0.13 and 0.05 g can also be generated from these earthquakes, respectively. The deterministic analysis predicts a so-called floating earthquake as a MPE of magnitude = 7.1 as close as 10 km away from the site. The corresponding PGA was computed as 0.38 g for a maximum design earthquake at the project site. However, the probabilistic analysis revealed that the PGA with 50% probability of exceedance in 100 years is 0.18 g. Thus, this PGA value related to the operational basis earthquake(OBE) is suggested for the design of this project with shear wave velocity(V_(s30)) equal to 760 m/s under dense soil and soft rock conditions.     

基于特大地震发生率的川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型

川滇地区是我国地震危险性较高的地区之一.本文基于对特大强震的风险性考虑,使用全球地震模型OpenQuake软件,建立了川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型.首先根据构造特征划分多个震源分区,并整理出这些震源分区内断层活动特征与滑动速率;基于震源分区和断层模型,使用GPS应变率转换成的锥形古登堡-里克特关系作为整个区域的地震积累率,并允许超过历史最大震级的特大地震的出现,结合活动断层滑动速率所积累的地震发生率,给出震源分区内断层地震源和背景地震源的地震发生率的比率分配关系;在活动断层分段上,保留了大型断裂或其主要部分,没有根据小的阶区来对断层进行详细分段,以便分配特大地震发生率;并使用地震率平滑方法分配背景地震发生率.最后在OpenQuake中加入地震动预测方程,计算出了川滇地区的PGA分布图,为区域地震危险性提供科学依据.