Tendencies of hydroclimatic changes on the baikal natural territory

We have estimated the rate of changes in the main hydroclimatic characteristics for the period 1961–2008. It has been established that all months are involved in the formation of positive tendencies of mean annual temperatures, with the largest changes corresponding to February (0.62–1.94°C/10 years). It has been found that the changes in annual precipitation amount and annual river runoff are differently directed and mostly statistically insignificant. The cold period of a year is dominated by tendencies for a decrease in the amount of precipitation. A predominance of positive changes in river runoff is observed between October and December.     

Nebkha （coppice dune） formation and significance to environmental change reconstructions in arid and semiarid areas

Environments in arid and semiarid regions are extremely sensitive to climate changes.High wind activity in these regions has resulted in an extensively developed arid geomorphology,but past environmental changes are poorly understood because of the absence of relatively high-resolution proxies.The accumulation characteristics of nebkhas,which have developed extensively in these regions,can be used as a method of reconstructing environmental changes.Here we summarized recent advances in research on the formation,development,and sediment characteristics of nebkhas and their significance to environmental changes in arid and semiarid regions.Based on the studies of our colleagues,we suggested that research on nebkha formation can provide distinct clues about environmental changes in arid and semiarid regions;however,continued studies are needed.     

CHANGES IN STREAM CHANNEL CHARACTERISTICS AT TRIBUTARY JUNCTIONS

Several existing data sets are analyzed empirically to determine the nature of changes in channel characteristics at stream confluences. Classifications of the data indicate that such changes are diverse and do not conform well with predictions based on the hydraulic geometry of synchronous channel-forming flows on major and minor tributaries. Scatterplots reveal that at best only weak relation ships exist between rates of change for the variables and junction symmetry ratio. Most of the plots display abrupt discontinuities separating positive and negative changes at low symmetry values from changes at high symmetry values that are positive or negative only. These thresholds of discontinuity generally occur at a symmetry ratio of approximately 0.7. Such thresholds may be indicative of abrupt changes in the factors controlling junction morphology. More research is required both at site-specific and basin-wide scales to resolve this issue.     

The development of the aquatic ecosystem at Kråkenes Lake, western Norway, during the late glacial and early Holocene - a synthesis

This paper synthesises the palaeoecological reconstructions, including palaeoclimatic inferences, based on the available fossil record of plants (pollen, macrofossils, mosses, diatoms) and animals (chironomids, Cladocera, Coleoptera, Trichoptera, oribatid mites) in the late-glacial and early-Holocene sediments of Kråkenes Lake, western Norway, with special emphasis on changes in the aquatic ecosystem. New percentage and influx pollen diagrams for selected taxa provide insights into the terrestrial setting. The information from all the proxies is collated in a stratigraphical chart, and the inferred changes in the lake and its catchment are discussed. The individual fossil sequences are summarised by detrended correspondence analysis (DCA), and sample scores on the first DCA axes are plotted against an estimated calendar-year timescale for comparison of the timing and magnitude of changes in assemblage composition. The DCA plots show that the large late-glacial biotic changes were synchronous, and were driven by the overriding forcing factor of temperature. During the early Holocene, however, the changes in different groups were more gradual and were independent of each other, showing that other factors were important and interactive, such as the inwash of dissolved and particulate material from the catchment, the base and nutrient status of the lake-water, and the internal processes of ecosystem succession and sediment accumulation. This multi-disciplinary study, with proxies for changes in the lake and in the catchment, highlights the dependence of lake biota and processes not only on regional climatic changes but also on changes in the lake catchment and on internal processes within the lake. Rates of change for each group are also estimated and compared. The reaction times to the sharp temperature changes at the start and end of the Younger Dryas were very rapid and occurred within a decade of the temperature change. Aquatic organisms tracked the temperature and environmental changes very closely, and are probably the best recorders of late-glacial climatic change in the fossil record.     

基于多源遥感数据的中山站附近地区冰架和冰川变化监测

南极冰架和冰川的变化是全南极动态变化的主要过程之一。利用MODIS L1B级250 m分辨率数据和Landsat陆地卫星15 m分辨率数据,针对不同尺度试验区域,分别监测2000—2016年间中山站附近地区的埃默里冰架、极时代冰川、极记录冰川和达尔克冰川的动态变化过程,并对试验区的动态变化进行分析。结果表明,埃默里冰架在近16年间一直处于向外扩展状态,前缘年扩展速率和扩展面积量较为稳定;极时代和极记录冰川不断向海洋流动,极时代冰川于2007年发生大型崩解,而极记录冰川前端的冰山在2014年发生崩解,冰山面积逐年递减,于2016年完全漂离冰川前缘;达尔克冰川则在监测年份内呈现出了交替性扩展和崩解的变化规律。     

黄河三角洲湿地生态特征变化及可持续性管理对策

近年来，由于农业市场化和产业化的发展，工业与城市化的崛起，黄河三角洲湿地生态特征发生了巨大变化。表现在湿地类型和面积的改变，湿地水状况及水质的变化，湿地产品的不可持续利用等，通过对湿地生态变化的自然因素和人为原因进行分析，提出了黄河三角洲湿地可持续性管理的方案，并从生态、社会、经济指标出发，探讨了湿地可持续性管理对策。     

The second International Symposium on the Arctic Research (ISAR-2): Brief overview

The Arctic and the surrounding region of the sub-Arctic represent a key area for the study of global change because the anthropogenic impact, particularly the rate of warming, is projected to be the greatest in any part of the world due to the complicated feedback processes which occur. This Arctic region has undergone very large changes in recent years due to global warming, and accelerated change is predicted. The rapid changes that are occurring in the Arctic, and that have been the topic of the ISAR-1 and ISAR-2 conferences, manifest themselves at a number of scales. The large scales are Arctic-wide changes in key environmental parameters, which are described in a series of papers in this issue. On a more subtle scale we see changes to species and to biological processes in the Arctic. We hope that readers will enjoy the range of papers published in this issue, and will appreciate that phenomena ranging in scale from global radiation balance to clutch size of birds' eggs are actually all related via the central fact of the present-day Arctic, its high rate of warming.     

On the land use in Three Gorges Reservoir area

In this study the arable land changes in two counties (Zigui and Xingshan) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China are investigated. The statistical data from the officially published statistical books are used to study these changes in the two counties during the past 50 years since 1949. The changes of arable land, changes of arable land per capita, and changes of multiple crop index in Zigui and Xingshan counties are examined. Using an index method, we conclude that the two counties are critical in the sustainable utilization of arable land.     

三峡库区秭归县和兴山县的土地利用

In this study the arable land changes in two counties (Zigui and Xingshan) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China are investigated. The statistical data fTom the officially published statistical books are used to study these changes in the two counties during the past 50 years since 1949. The changes of arable land, changes of arable land per capita, and changes of multiple crop index in Zigui and Xingshan counties are examined. Using an index method, we conclude that the two counties are critical in the sustainable utilization of arable land.     

腾格里沙漠南缘油松树轮宽度变化及其对气候因子的响应

树木年轮定年准确、连续性强、分辨率高,并且易于获取复本,已经成为过去气候变化研究的主要手段之一。在沙漠地区,受气候条件的限制,树轮研究工作开展的较少。通过分析腾格里沙漠南缘油松树木年轮宽度的变化及其对气候因子的响应,发现夏季（6~8月）温度以及年降水量是当地油松生长的重要限制因子。对树木年轮标准化年表的功率谱分析表明,树轮记录具有2.6 a,7.5 a,14 a以及16.5 a的显著周期,其中2.6a以及7.5a周期的树轮指数变化,可能与ENSO的周期有关。     

毛乌素沙地南缘横向沙丘粒度分布及其对风向变化的响应

在风季发生转换期间, 根据不同方向风的持续时间, 对毛乌素沙地南缘长48m, 高8m 的 横向沙丘进行了7 次断面形态测量和表面沉积物采样分析。结果表明, 横向沙丘断面形态及表面 沉积物粒度分布随区域气流方向和强度而发生变化。在沙丘各部位, 丘顶及附近两侧的沙粒活动 性强, 表面沉积物粒径及分选参数变化显著。在粒径及分选参数中, 粒径频率曲线、平均粒径和偏 度对风的作用比较敏感, 随时间的变化也明显, 利用它们的变化可以解释区域气流变化对沙丘的 影响。风向发生转换时期的短期观测和采样分析结果进一步说明采样时间是影响沙丘表面沉积 物粒度特征的重要因素。     

Shear-wave polarizations near the North Anatolian Fault – III. Observations of temporal changes.

Summary. Almost all shear-waves from local earthquakes recorded on closely-spaced three-component seismometer networks deployed near the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey, in two experiments in 1979 and 1980, display shear-wave splitting. The observations are consistent with the presence of EDA (extensive-dilatancy anisotropy), distributions of fluid-filled cracks and microcracks aligned by the regional stress field. Temporal changes in the stress-field, which may occur before an earthquake, may modify the geometry and possibly the orientation of the EDA-microcracks, and lead to corresponding changes in the behaviour of the split shear-waves. A third experiment was undertaken in 1984 to investigate EDA further and to search for possible temporal variations of the polarization of the leading split shear-wave and the time delay between split shear-waves. Observations indicate that the polarization alignments, which are parallel to the strike of the parallel vertical EDA-cracks, are unaltered between 1979 and 1984, implying that the direction of the regional stress field has not changed significantly. Temporal changes in the stress field are more likely to cause changes in the crack density and/or aspect ratio, which would result in a corresponding change in time delay between the split shear-waves. We examine observations of time delay in relation to their propagation path with respect to the crack geometry since it is then possible to separate the effects of changes in crack density and changes in aspect ratio. With this procedure, a small temporal variation of time delays is found between 1979 and 1984, consistent with a decrease in crack density, and consequently a relaxation of stress, in this time period. No evidence was found for any observable variation of time delay over a six month observation span in 1984. We suggest that analysis of repeated shear-wave VSPs offers a technique for monitoring stress changes before earthquakes.     

基于EMD的山东省GDP增长与耕地变化的关系

本文首次用EMD方法,对山东省的经济增长与耕地面积变化关系进行比较分析,试图找出两者的互动关系,以期对山东省的耕地资源保护有所借鉴。研究结果表明:山东省GDP增长的波动周期为13年、23年、37年和55年;山东省耕地变化的周期为9年、13年、37年和55年。这充分证明了GDP增长的波动对山东省耕地周期性变化的驱动作用。到2015年前后,山东省经济增长的耕地代价性损失将大大减少,耕地数量将维持在一个相对稳定的水平,经济增长和耕地数量减少进入一个良性的发展阶段。最后,本文首次尝试建立有周期的动力学模型,对山东省未来20年的耕地面积变化进行了预测。     

科尔沁沙地沙漠化的几个问题：以南部地区为例

根据野外调查和室内分析，认为本区土地沙漠化形成时代至少始于早中更新世，其发展模式为非沙漠化环境与沙漠环境之间的正逆交替过程。其生物气候带分别经历过干冷多风的干草原、荒漠草原和温暖湿润或温凉稍湿的森林草原、疏林草原的多次变更。土地沙漠化和生物气候带的这种变化与全球气候波动引起的我国北方生物气候带水平摆动相吻合。因此，该区土地沙漠化的发展趋势将主要取决于当今全球气候波动的发展趋势。     

黄河流域天然径流量突变性与周期性特征

突变性和周期性是水文时间序列的两个重要特征。黄河流域面积广阔，各区域水文水资源系统演变规律各不相同，它们的突变和周期变化及其形成的物理机制遍异，因此系统分析各区域水资源突变性和周期性特征及其影响机制具有重要意义。把黄河流域划分为15个区域，计算出各区域1951—1998年的年天然径流量系列。利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法检测黄河流域各区域年天然径流量的突变年份，结果表明各区域的突变年份不完全一致，主要在1953—1955年、1979—1983年、1991—1993年等发生了突变，这些突变与北半球气候突变具有一致性，且由于下垫面改变、人类活动等影响而复杂化。利用Morlet小波分析各区域年天然径流量的变化周期，发现主要存在3～4a、7～9a、11a的周期，形成这些周期的物理因子有太阳黑子、海—气相互作用和下垫面因素等。通过分析黄河流域主要产流区不同时段小波系数变化，发现20世纪80年代之后年径流量主要以短周期变化。     

Globalisation and the pattern of inbound tourism in Australia

International tourist flows to Australia are examined from the perspective of globalisation. The factors influencing such flows are identified and their geographical impact outlined. Inbound tourism is shown to be growing quickly in both absolute and relative terms and to have a metropolitan emphasis that contrasts with the non‐metropolitan focus of domestic tourism. Tourism illustrates many of the social and cultural changes occurring in contemporary society; the nature of tourism is changing as society changes with a result that new forms of tourism are emerging. Particularly noteworthy is the shift from mass to ‘new tourism’. The nature and likely impact of these changes in Australia is assessed. The paper concludes that growth rates comparable with those achieved in the past might not be sustainable.     

大渡河上游地区土地利用动态模拟分析

基于1967、1987和2000年三期遥感数据和1:25万数字高程模型,通过Logistic逐步回归分析,在地形、海拔、水系、道路交通、城镇和居民点分布等多种自然地理和社会经济因素中,筛选出不同时期对大渡河上游地区主要土地利用类型空间分布及其变化具有决定作用的驱动因子,并生成相应的土地利用空间分布概率适宜图,然后采用CLUE-S模型,模拟分析了1987年和2000年两个时点上金川、壤塘和马尔康三县18665 km2范围内的土地利用状况。用当年的现状图检验对比的结果表明,模拟取得了较为理想的结果,Kappa值分别达到0.86和0.89。在此基础上,针对三种政策情景,应用相同模型模拟预测了研究地区2010年时的土地利用时空变化。     

Comparative tempo‐spatial pattern analysis: CTSPA

A new method is illustrated for describing the characteristics of urban pattern changes over different time periods. This method employs vector geometry, paired centroids, shared boundary lines, and overlain polygons. Three new statistics are proposed for characterizing local polygon feature changes in quantity, shape, and size. These statistics are standardized, based on conventional theories from urban geography such as directional concentric zones and user‐designated corridors to document both regional and global patterns of land‐use change. This method is used to analyse land‐use changes in metropolitan Detroit between 1990 and 2000. The Detroit case study indicates that the CTSPA statistics are effective in describing urban spatial pattern changes and in characterizing the evolution of discrete urban landscapes over selected periods.     

Geographic EducationResearch and the Changing Institutional Structure of American Education

Professional geographers are paying increasing attention to the development of a research agenda concerning geographic education. In doing so, it is essential that geographers pay close attention to fundamental changes in the structure of education itself. Traditional educational methods and procedures associated with industrial society are being replaced by new and innovative modes of education that are linked to post-industrial social organization. This article explores the implications of these changes for understanding the teaching and learning of geography in the future.