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1.
未来气候情景下冬小麦潜在北移区农业气候资源变化特征 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
基于区域气候模式系统PRECIS输出的RCP4.5气候情景数据分析表明,相较于1981-2010年,至2071-2097年冬小麦种植北界将平均向北移动147.8 km,北移面积约1.86×105 km2。选取代表光、温、水资源的9项农业气候资源指标,探究未来情景下,2021-2097年冬小麦潜在北移区内农业气候资源变化特征,结果表明:(1)相较于基准时段(1961-1990年),未来潜在北移区内光照资源变化呈减少趋势;热量资源呈明显增加趋势,在21世纪末的30年,波动性加大;降水资源整体增加趋势不明显,但波动性亦呈现增大趋势。(2)未来潜在北移区内,2030T (2021-2050年)、2050T (2041-2070年)和2070T (2061-2090年)时段光照资源在研究区域的东北部减少幅度较大,而在西南部较小;热量资源在研究区域的北部增加比南部明显;降水资源则主要在研究区域的东北部增加明显。 相似文献
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广东兴宁地区近46年气候变化特征 总被引:3,自引:20,他引:3
利用1961~2006年兴宁机场的逐日信息化资料,分析了兴宁地区46年来气温、降水变化特征。结果表明:兴宁地区年,冬、夏季平均温度以及最低、最高气温均呈明显上升趋势,平均增温率为0.015℃年;综合来看,20世纪60~90年代冬季增温幅度大于夏季,21世纪初夏季增温幅度高于冬季;年平均降水量为1488.9mm,季节性显著,其中夏季最多,占年平均降水量的45.4%,秋季降水量最少。降水量呈逐渐减少的趋势并不明显,其气候倾向率为-2.89mm/年。 相似文献
4.
在利用田间试验资料对双季稻生长动力(态)模拟模型进行验证的基础上,将基于GCMs的输出和历史气候资料相结合的气候变化情景与双季稻模式相连接,就气候变暖对我国江南双季稻主产区水稻生产的可能影响进行网格化定量模拟和客观评估,并就调整对策(改变播种日期和种植品种)在减缓气候变暖对双季稻生产影响中的作用作了初步的探讨。结果表明,在未来可能的气候变化情景下,若维持目前的品种和生产技术措施,双季稻产量将有不同程度的下降。产量变化的地域分布既有一定的规律性,又体现出气候变化影响的复杂性。适应对策分析表明,改种长生育期的 相似文献
5.
On Climate Variations and Changes Observed in South Korea 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This study describes observations on possible climate changes occurring on the Korean Peninsula. We found that in large urban and industrial areas in Korea, there has been a significant increase in the annual mean temperatures according to data of the past 29 years. The increase in January temperatures was in the order of 0.8 ~ 2.4 ° C. However, in rural and marine stations, the increase in annual mean temperature was 0.6 ° C; the level of the global average. There was also an increase in precipitation: 259 mm over the recent 97 years. Observation has revealed that a month-long steady rainfall in late June and July with a quasi-stationary polar front has not occurred in recent years and has been replaced with scattered convective heavy-showers on a local scale in July and August. It is observed that the behaviour of this rainy front, `the Changma front' has brought changes to rainfall characteristics. Our results highlight the importance of the shortened rainy season. However, the amount of rainfall and the number of heavy rainfall days have increased. 相似文献
6.
黑龙江省气候生产潜力研究 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
在气候资源清查的基础上提出热量区和水热综合生长期的概念,它比单纯用积温带指导农业生产更科学合理,符合黑龙江省农业生产实际。采用FAO农业生态区划法计算了黑龙江省水稻、玉米、大豆、小麦四大作物的气候生产潜力。 相似文献
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Stefan Hastenrath 《Climatic change》2001,50(1-2):209-217
The evidence on the climatic history of East Africa over the past two centuries comprises historical accounts of lake levels, observations and analyses of glacier variations, wind and current observations in the Indian Ocean, as well as raingauge measurements. East Africa experiences its rainy seasons in boreal spring and autumn, centered around April–May and October–November; the spring rains being more abundant and the autumn rains more variable. Rains tend to be abundant/deficient with slow/fast westerlies (UEQ) and Eastward Equatorial Jet (EEJ) in the upper hydrosphere of the equatorial Indian Ocean. A drastic climatic dislocation took place during the last two decades of the l9th century, manifest in a drop of lake levels, onset of glacier recession, and acceleration of UEQ and EEJ. The decades immediately preceding 1880 featured high lake stands, extensive glaciation, and slow UEQ and EEJ, as compared to the 20th century. The onset of glacier recession in East Africa after 1880 contrasts with a start of ice shrinkage in New Guinea and the Ecuadorian Andes around the middle of the l9th century. The regional circulation regime characterized by slow UEQ and EEJ in the decades prior to 1880 was conducive to extensive ice cover along with high lake stands in East Africa, and this may account for the onset of glacier recession much later than in the other mountain regions of the equatorial zone. The evolution of East African climate over the first half of the l9th century merits further exploration. 相似文献
9.
Impact of Climate Change on Maize Potential Productivity and the Potential Productivity Gap in Southwest China 下载免费PDF全文
HE Di WANG Jing DAI Tong FENG Liping ZHANG Jianping PAN Xuebiao PAN Zhihua 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2014,28(6):1155-1167
The impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in Southwest China(SWC) are investigated in this paper.We analyze the impact of climate change on the photosynthetic,light-temperature,and climatic potential productivity of maize and their gaps in SWC,by using a crop growth dynamics statistical method.During the maize growing season from 1961 to 2010,minimum temperature increased by 0.20℃ per decade(p 0.01) across SWC.The largest increases in average and minimum temperatures were observed mostly in areas of Yunnan Province.Growing season average sunshine hours decreased by 0.2 h day~(-1) per decade(p 0.01) and total precipitation showed an insignificant decreasing trend across SWC.Photosynthetic potential productivity decreased by 298 kg ha~(-1)per decade(p 0.05).Both light-temperature and climatic potential productivity decreased(p 0.05) in the northeast of SWC,whereas they increased(p 0.05) in the southwest of SWC.The gap between lighttemperature and climatic potential productivity varied from 12 to 2729 kg ha~(-1),with the high value areas centered in northern and southwestern SWC.Climatic productivity of these areas reached only 10%-24%of the light-temperature potential productivity,suggesting that there is great potential to increase the maize potential yield by improving water management in these areas.In particular,the gap has become larger in the most recent 10 years.Sensitivity analysis shows that the climatic potential productivity of maize is most sensitive to changes in temperature in SWC.The findings of this study are helpful for quantification of irrigation water requirements so as to achieve maximum yield potentials in SWC. 相似文献
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河南省气候变化与北极涛动的多时间尺度相关 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
将交叉谱与小波变换方法相结合,采用交叉小波分析方法,分析了冬、夏季北极涛动指数距平(ΔIAO)、河南省降水距平(ΔR)和气温距平(ΔT)序列的时频结构及其联合统计特征,讨论了近55年来河南省气候变化与北极涛动之间的多时间尺度相关。结果表明:冬、夏季ΔIAO、ΔR和ΔT都存在准2年、4年、6~8年和11~22年左右的周期信号。冬季ΔR与ΔIAO之间的显著相关表现在准2年和14~22年尺度共振周期上,年代际尺度正相关振荡的凝聚性最强且为全时域分布;冬季ΔT与ΔIAO的显著正相关表现在2~4年和6~10年尺度共振周期上,时域中相关振荡存在局部化特征;年代际尺度上ΔR与ΔIAO的相关显著性高于ΔT与ΔIAO的相关而年际尺度上ΔT与ΔIAO的相关比ΔR与ΔIAO的相关更显著,表明冬季AO对河南省降水和气温变化的影响机制不同。夏季ΔR与ΔIAO之间的显著相关表现在准2年、4~6年、6~8年和16年左右尺度共振周期上,以6~8年尺度正相关振荡凝聚性最强;夏季ΔT与ΔIAO的相关显著性较低,仅在年际尺度周期上局部时域中有所表现;夏季AO主要通过影响东亚季风强度对河南省降水和气温变化产生间接影响。 相似文献
11.
The mid-Atlantic trough (MAT) is one of the most prominent circulation systems over the subtropical North Atlantic during the boreal summer, and it can be viewed as a bridge linking the climate in the American-Atlantic-Eurasian region. The upper-tropospheric MAT attains its maximum intensity of 200–150?hPa in June and July. An index measuring the variability of MAT intensity is defined, which reveals significant interannual and interdecadal variations of the trough.On interannual time scales, the variation of MAT is significantly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, a southeastward propagating stationary wave that possibly originates from the northeastern Pacific, and the Atlantic Meridional Mode. A stronger trough is associated with warmer surface temperatures and higher pressure over central-northern North America and the extratropical North Atlantic and with colder surface temperatures and lower pressure over the Arctic, the subtropical North Atlantic, and the northeastern Pacific. In the meantime, significant negative precipitation anomalies occur over the north of the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, as well as the northeastern Atlantic because of the anomalous low-level northeasterly winds over these areas. On an interdecadal time scale, the variation of MAT seems to be related to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation. Warmer surface temperatures appear over almost the entire North Atlantic, southern Europe, East Asia, and the North Pacific during the weak phase of the trough. A weak trough is also associated with the dipole pattern of anomalous precipitation over the extratropical North Atlantic, Greenland, and northeastern North America, corresponding to a dipole of low-level atmospheric circulation over these regions. 相似文献
12.
平流层对对流层的作用是准确评估、预测对流层气候变化的一个重要方面。其中平流层成分尤其是臭氧的变化,可以改变平流层乃至对流层的辐射平衡,从而影响平流层、对流层的热动力过程。本文从辐射、动力2个角度介绍了平流层臭氧影响对流层气候变化的若干研究进展。平流层臭氧可以通过长短波辐射的方式对对流层大气造成辐射强迫,利用大气化学气候模式可以定量计算平流层臭氧变化引起的辐射强迫,但是辐射强迫的估算受模式中辐射传输模块本身缺陷的影响存在不确定性。动力方面,平流层臭氧变化产生的辐射效应可以改变温度的垂直和经向梯度,造成波折射指数的变化,进而影响平流层甚至对流层内波的折射与反射,通过上对流层下平流层区域内的波—流相互作用,对对流层气候产生影响。另外,南极臭氧损耗可通过大气环状模影响冬春季中高纬度对流层的天气气候,但是其影响的强度大小以及物理机制仍需进一步的确认。值得注意的是,北极平流层臭氧的变化与北半球中高纬度气候变化之间的关系相比南半球要更加复杂,需要更为深入的研究。 相似文献
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H.-S. Liu 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1998,61(3-4):217-229
Summary For astronomical seasons, Rubincam insolation deviations at latitude 65° N varied from 218.50 Wm−2 to 225.75 Wm−2 (3%). The periodicity of the insolation cycles varied from 36.7 Kyr to 44.7 Kyr (20%) due to phase shift. Phase shift of
insolation variations can induce asymmetry of the insolation cycles, permitting rapid melting and prolonged glaciation of
ice sheets to occur. For instance, an abnormal decrease of the insolation frequency during the longer period of glacial interval
would prolong glaciation into deep ice age. In this study, we apply Rubincam’s insolation equations to investigate the phase
shift effect of insolation variations on climate change. Using complex transforms of the changing insolation, we have detected
a phase modulation signal in the insolation variations. As a result, an especially new and interesting series of the phase-related
insolation pulsation is established. The phase modulated insolation is then introduced as a forcing function into energy balance
climate models. Results of model computations shed new insights into the spectrum of the paleoclimatic proxy-data. It is shown
that phase modulation of the insolation may provide an appropriate and complete external forcing mechanism to which the climate
system would respond. The 100 Kyr cycle of the frequency modulation of the Rubincam’s insolation variations does seem adequate
to change the climate.
Received July 16, 1997 Revised May 18, 1998 相似文献
14.
偏振雷达在人工影响天气工作中的应用潜力 总被引:7,自引:5,他引:7
在人工影响天气作业时,实时了解被作业云中的水成物粒子大小、相态、密谋、运动等参数及其微物理变化过程是非常重要的。这些微观参量和微物理过程揭示了云降水发展的不同阶段,对于及时正确地评估云增水及消雹潜力,确定是否适合人工影响作业以及如何正确选择作业时机、作业部位和作业量,与了解云的宏观特征一样是至关重要的,它是提高作业效率的基础。本文借助国内外偏振雷达应用研究中成功的范例,探讨了偏振雷达在人工影响天气方面的应用问题。特别是介绍了不同偏振雷达在识别云内水成物粒子的相态、密度,观测云内水成物粒子微物理变化过程,以及被作业云的作业效果评估等方面的方法。这些方法对于发展我国偏振雷达技术,促进偏振雷达在人工影响天气方面的应用和提高我国人工影响天气工作水平方面有很好的参考与借鉴作用。 相似文献
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为进一步提高夏季舒适度预报质量,该文根据国际生物气象研究学会制定的体感指标计算软件和国内现行指标的计算方法,引进并修正了热气候指数(UTCI),根据对2009年8月21—25日在南京信息工程大学205名军训大学生开展的问卷调查资料,对比验证了国内外多种指标,结果表明:国内指标基本能够表征人体热感觉,但仍需进一步完善;热气候指数较其他体感指标能更好地表达人体实际热舒适度,结合天气数值预报结果和SolAlt模型预报的太阳辐射,非常适宜作为南京市人体舒适度的预报指标。热气候指数的建立,提高了南京市的公共气象服务质量。 相似文献
16.
The Implications of Climate Change on Floods of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Rivers in Bangladesh 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Climate change in the future would have implications for river discharges in Bangladesh. In this article, possible changes in the magnitude, extent and depth of floods of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) rivers in Bangladesh were assessed using a sequence of empirical models and the MIKE11-GIS hydrodynamic model. Climate change scenarios were constructed from the results of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) –CSIRO9, UKTR, GFDL and LLNL, which demonstrate a range of uncertainties. Changes in magnitude, depth and extent of flood discharge vary considerably between the GCMs. Future changes in the peak discharge of the Ganges River are expected to be higher than those for the Brahmaputra River. Peak discharge of the Meghna River may also increase considerably. As a result, significant changes in the spatial extent and depths of inundation in Bangladesh may occur. Faster changes in inundation are expected at low temperature increases than of higher temperature changes. Changes in land inundation categories may introduce substantial changes in rice agriculture and cropping patterns in Bangladesh. Reduction of increased flood hazard due to climate change requires strengthening of flood management policies and adaptation measures in Bangladesh. 相似文献
17.
近40年兰州城市气候季节性变化与城市发展 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
利用城郊对比法研究了近40年来兰州城市发展对城市气候环境的影响,着重探讨了最近40年不同季节的城市气候环境变化与城市发展的关系。本文将兰州城市人口数量与兰州城市气候的变化程度作为独立变量,借助相关分析和回归分析,探讨人口数量对城市气候的影响程度。最近40年间,兰州冬季城市热岛主要是受城市人为热的影响,其它季节的热岛效应受人为热影响也较大,但下垫面因素也起一定的作用。在城市干岛效应影响中,人为热量排放对其有一定的影响,但不是主要的因素。 相似文献
18.
利用山东省70个台站1961-2005年地面气象观测资料,运用EOF等统计方法,对山东省45 a来霾日数时空变化的气候特征进行了诊断分析。结果表明:山东省年平均霾日空间分布呈现鲁中、鲁南的部分地区多,鲁北、半岛大部地区少的特点。霾主要发生在秋冬季。过去45 a,山东省霾日数总体具有较强的上升趋势,2000年后略下降;霾天气发生时能见度主要在5~10 km,相对湿度主要为70%~90%;霾日数的变化与气温成正比,与降水量、风速呈反比。 相似文献
19.
利用1960—2019年广西88个国家气象观测站逐日气温资料,将研究时段分成前30年(P1:1960—1989年)和后30年(P2:1990—2019年)2个阶段,分析早稻安全播种期和安全移栽期、晚稻安全齐穗期和安全成熟期的年际变化规律,并通过比较P1和P2阶段不同保证率下各安全生产期的差异,分析气候变暖背景下广西双季稻安全生产期的变化特征。结果表明:①早稻安全播种期和安全移栽期主要表现为提前变化趋势,晚稻安全齐穗期和安全成熟期主要表现为推迟变化趋势,全区80%和90%保证率安全播种期和安全移栽期平均提前2 d,80%和90%保证率安全齐穗期平均推迟2 d,80%和90%保证率安全成熟期平均推迟5 d和6 d。②安全生产期的变化特征空间差异性较大,桂东北安全播种期和安全移栽期提前天数最多,达6 d以上,百色那坡、靖西地区安全齐穗期推迟天数最多,达6 d以上,全区大部分地区安全成熟期推迟天数在6~10 d,空间差异相对较小。 相似文献
20.
LUO Guidong 《四川气象》2008,(4)
采用气候倾向率和趋势系数方法对达州6个气象站1960年以来气温、降水资料进行统计分析,结果表明:(1)1960年以来达州市年平均气温呈小幅上升的趋势,冬、春、秋三季增温,而夏季降温,气温年较差减小。20世纪80年代降温显著,90年代以后气温明显上升。(2)降水量趋势性变化不显著,总体呈略为增加的趋势。春、秋季降水减少,冬、夏季降水增多。近几年强降水频发,同时出现严重干旱。降水的相对集中和气温的升高,将导致干旱和洪涝发生的强度加重。 相似文献