Reconstructing past precipitation from lake levels and inverse modelling for Andean Lake La Cocha

Knowledge of paleoclimates and past climate change is important to put recent and future climate change in perspective. In the absence of well-developed methodology to reconstruct paleoprecipitation the majority of climate reconstructions focus on temperature, whereas precipitation is an equally important climate parameter. This paper explores the possibility of inferring paleoprecipitation from lake-level records by inverse hydrological modelling. Pollen spectra of a lacustrine sediment core were used to infer changes in past temperatures and lake levels during the past 14,000 years. A hydrological model that calculates lake levels using meteorological parameters and a digital terrain model were developed for the catchment area of Lake La Cocha. After calibration the model accurately simulated modern lake levels. A sensitivity analysis shows that the model results are most sensitive to temperature and precipitation. This hydrological model was subsequently used to estimate mean annual precipitation needed to reproduce the pollen-based reconstructed lake levels (inverse modelling). The lake currently discharges through the permanent Guamués River, with a modelled mean annual discharge of 3.6 m³ s^?1. However, past lake levels and hydrological modelling results suggest that Lake La Cocha has been free of discharge during most of the Holocene, and after an intermittent phase only recently started discharging permanently. The uncertainty in the inferred precipitation during the discharge-free period is estimated at ~22 mm. Quasi stable lake levels seem to justify using equilibrium conditions when reconstructing precipitation. Early Holocene lake levels were ~10 m lower than modern values, implying that precipitation must have been 30–40 % less than today.     

巴丹吉林沙漠沙山区径流与地下水补给条件

在全球高差最大的巴丹吉林沙漠沙山斜坡上发现了沙漠区罕见的因大气降水而产生的地表超渗径流,地表径流侵蚀,缓渗径流及因地下径流出露而产生的地表径流--风沙混合物理沉积与化学沉积(次生盐).根据电镜观察,能谱分析,化学分析和粒度分析等资料,研究了径流化学沉积物的矿物和化学组成,风积沙和径流--风沙混合物理沉积物的粒度组成,径流类型及沙山区水分平衡,降水对地下水与湖水的补给机制.超渗径流的出现表明,虽然该区降水量少,但存在能够为地下水提供补给来源的较强有效降雨过程.径流,径流--风沙混合物理沉积和化学沉积等六项科学指标从深层次上充分证明,该区降水通过入渗至少达到了沙山的下部,完全能够对地下水构成有效补给.细粒层相对的隔水性是该区地下径流出露于地表的原因.沙山区确实存在令人惊奇的水分正平衡,即在大气降水在经过蒸发和蒸腾等消耗之后,每年还有约134648.4 t/km²水补给了地下水和湖水,成为湖水的重要补给来源之一.沙山区能够产生有效降水,植被稀少蒸腾量少,沙层入渗率高和沙层受蒸发影响深度很小是该区水分出现正平衡和大气降水能够补给地下水的四个条件,也是导致该沙漠区有众多湖泊发育的主要条件.     

The influence of Asian summer monsoon variability on the water balance of a Tibetan lake

Past water-balance changes in Tibetan lakes are generally attributed to changes in the strength of the summer monsoon. However, the water balance of a lake reflects many different water fluxes, which are controlled by many climatic and hydrologic processes. In this research, weather data and evaporation models are used to determine the climatic cause of a recent water-balance change in Ahung Co, a lake in central Tibet. Between 1995 and 2001, lake level rose at least 20 cm and the lake began to overflow. Results indicate that an increase in summer monsoon precipitation over the lake and drainage basin is responsible for the rise in lake level. Stronger monsoon conditions between 1995 and 2001 also led to decreased lake evaporation and basin evapotranspiration due to increased clouds and humidity. This contributed to the rise in lake level, but to a much smaller extent than the increase in monsoon precipitation. Lake evaporation during the spring and fall was also reduced between 1995 and 2001 due to longer lasting ice cover. Variations in ice cover play a small role in the overall water balance of Ahung Co, however, because the lake area is small compared to the drainage basin area. If these results hold true for the past, water-balance fluctuations inferred from the geochemistry of sediments from Ahung Co provide a record of variations in monsoon precipitation during the Holocene.     

青海湖水量变化模拟及原因分析

为了探讨气候变化和人类活动对流域水文过程的影响,以分布式水文模型SWAT为基础,结合湖泊水量平衡模型,建立了青海湖水位(水量)模型,模拟了青海湖过去几十年水位变化过程。水文因子分析表明,20世纪80~90年代青海湖流域径流和湖泊水位变化的主要原因是气候变化。根据不同气候情景,对未来青海湖水位变化进行了预测。结果表明,未来30年径流增加的可能性比较大,青海湖水位下降速度将会减缓甚至出现上升趋势。这一结果将会缓解青海湖流域水资源日益紧张的局势,并有利于植被的恢复,减少土地沙化面积,对流域生态环境的改善和社会经济的发展将会有极大的帮助。     

Water and sediment chemistry of Lake Pumayum Co,South Tibet,China: implications for interpreting sediment carbonate

A combination of water and sediment chemistry was used to investigate carbonate production and preservation in Lake Pumayum Co (altitude 5,030 m a.s.l.), south Tibet, China. We compared the chemical composition of lake water in various parts of the lake with that of input rivers and found that the loss of Ca²⁺ results from calcite sedimentation induced by evaporation and biogenic precipitation. This is supported by evaporation data from the catchment and δ¹⁸O measurements on water. Results suggest that CaCO₃ is the predominant carbonate in this lake. There is a positive correlation in the sediments among concentrations of total inorganic carbon (TIC), Ca, total organic carbon (TOC), and total nitrogen, confirming that most carbonates in sediment are endogenic. The Jiaqu River is the largest inflow to Lake Pumayum Co and has a strong influence on both lake water chemistry and sediment composition. The river and lake bathymetry influence carbonate sedimentation by affecting water flow velocity and growing conditions for macrophytes. Different carbon contents and relationships between TIC and TOC in the two long cores from different depths in the lake reveal that hypolimnetic conditions also influence carbonate precipitation and preservation.     

湖泊沉积物记录的湖水古盐度定量研究进展

湖水古盐度的定量反演,可以促进过去全球变化研究由定性走向定量。内陆干旱半干旱地区湖泊尤其是封闭湖泊的盐度取决于流域降水,径流和蒸发的平衡关系,并直接表现为湖泊水位的变化。关于湖水的古盐度反演,长期以来已经根据多湖泊沉积环境指标加以揭示,包括湖泊沉积物中介形虫壳体的元素地球化学特性、硅藻-古盐度转换函数、介形虫壳体的形态学特征及其与生长环境的关系以及实验模拟等。各种方法有不同的适用条件和适用范围及一定的局限性,对此做了归纳和评述。     

呼伦湖近年水情变化原因分析

流域水量平衡变化机制及其效应的认识是理解湖泊水情变化与制定缓解措施的根本依据。针对2000年后呼伦湖持续水位的急剧下降,并考虑到流域监测资料稀缺的实际情况,借助遥感反演降水和蒸散时空数据序列,利用时空模式分解、趋势分析等方法揭示了流域降水时空变化特征及其引起的蒸散效应。结果表明:流域降水变化主要由空间分布及过程强弱互补的2个降水模式决定,这2个模式的变化解释了流域降水变化的67.4%。2000年后2个模式强弱的变化导致了流域整体降水由两侧山区向中部地势平坦区域的转变。流域中部受地形及气象条件影响,相比两侧山区产流效率偏低。因而降水空间分配的改变形成了更有利于增加陆面蒸散的供水条件,导致了流域蒸散占降水比重上升到较高水平。蒸散变化强度及趋势的时空特征分析也进一步确认了以上现象,这种降水模式的变化及其效应直接导致了流域水量平衡中可供产流的净雨量减少,是呼伦湖流域近年产流减少的根本原因。2000年后流域冻土消融补给的改变则对呼伦湖极端水情的发生起到了推波助澜的作用。     

A multi-proxy approach to reconstruct hydrological changes and Holocene climate development of Nam Co, Central Tibet

Holocene lake level fluctuations were reconstructed from a 2.7-m sediment core from Nam Co, Central Tibet, China dating to >7.2 cal ka BP. Results were compared to existing lake records from the Tibetan Plateau to infer variations in the strength of the Asian Monsoon. Geomorphological features in the Nam Co catchment, such as beach ridges and lake terraces, indicate high lake stands during the late Glacial. A major low stand is suggested for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Sands and sandy silts at the base of the core are transgressive facies, with material transported by melt water and deposited under rising lake level conditions that followed the LGM low stand. Variations in grain size, major elements, biomarker stable isotopes and minerals in the core suggest a climate evolution reflected in at least five depositional units and subunits. Sediments in Unit I (~7.2 to ~5.4 cal ka BP) were deposited at highest lake levels. Large amounts of allogenic minerals and allochthonous organic matter suggest high precipitation and melt water input, implying positive water balance. Increasing aquatic productivity points to favourable environmental conditions. Unit II (~5.4 to ~4.0 cal ka BP) marks a transition between favourable, stable hydrological conditions and lake level decrease. Lower lake levels were a consequence of drier climate with less monsoonal precipitation, higher evaporation rates, and increased moisture recycling in the catchment. Unit III (~4.0 to ~1.4 cal ka BP) reflects the driest periods recorded, at ~3.7 cal ka BP and 1.6 cal ka BP. Lake shrinkage and salinization was interrupted as suggested by the deposition of Unit IV (~1.4 to ~0.8 cal ka BP), when increased precipitation and runoff that might be related to the Medieval Warm Period, led to a stable, but still low lake level. Unit V (800 cal years BP—present) is characterized by progressive lake shrinkage due to intense evaporation. Large fluctuations in geochemical variables indicate humid and arid periods, respectively, at Nam Co between ~450 and ~200 cal years BP, with the latter assumed to correspond to the Little Ice Age. Modern hydrological data indicate the lake level is rising. Comparison of the Nam Co record with other lake records from the Tibetan Plateau suggests general agreement with the broader picture of Holocene environmental evolution. The timing of dry and wet climate conditions at lake sites across Tibet indicates a gradually decreasing influence of the southern monsoon during the Holocene, from NW to SE. Nevertheless, further research is needed to improve our understanding of Holocene spatio-temporal hydrological variations across the Asian continent.     

干旱区与湿润区湖泊降水效应之比较

本文在引证并对比分析前人研究成果的基础上认为：无论湖泊位于何处，至少从理论上来说，湖泊的降水效应是普遍存在的。关于博期腾湖的实际观测资料表明，，干旱区湖泊的降水效应可能不同于湿润区湖泊，湿润区湖泊通常湖面降水少于陆面。干旱区湖泊则可能出现相反的情况，从理论上来说，不论干旱区湖泊还是湿润区湖泊都存在着出现与上述结论相反的现象的可能性。     

3 万年来亚洲降水与大气环流变化重建和模拟综述

区域性的湖泊水位能反映有效降水及气候变化,已成为重建第四纪降水和水量平衡最重要的指标。亚洲分布着几乎全球各种成因类型的湖泊,第四纪湖泊演化在全球第四纪研究中占有重要地位。多年来通过对地貌学、沉积学、生物地球化学和考古学的研究重建了各个区域的湖泊水位变化,并据此建立了湖泊演变数据库,作为研究第四纪亚洲区域气候变化的重要基础。本文介绍湖泊水位气候理论的发展历程,回顾晚第四纪亚洲湖泊水位研究的历史;分析晚第四纪亚洲从西到东不同区域湖泊水位变化历史和地域特征,并根据晚第四纪冰期和间冰期的两个特征期湖泊空间变化特征,从古气候模拟的角度探讨了气候驱动机制下湖泊水位变化的成因。     

流域水热条件和植被状况对青海湖水位的影响

湖泊是陆地水资源的重要组成部分，也是局地气候和全球环境变化的敏感指示器之一。湖泊面积增加和水位的变化直接反映了流域内水量平衡变化过程，对区域和全球的气候变化的反映较为敏感。利用线性趋势法对青海湖流域长时间序列气象、水文资料以及流域水热条件和植被生长状况进行分析研究，利用皮尔逊相关系数法计算了各因素与湖水位的相关关系，旨在定量评估区域气象、水文、植被等要素的变化对和湖泊水位变化过程的贡献，开展细致的青海湖水位变化特征的影响因子探讨与分析。结果表明：该流域气候呈现显著的暖湿化趋势，其中流域年降水量总体上呈现弱的增加态势，气候倾向率为10.8 mm·（10 a）^-1；流域年平均气温呈显著的升高趋势（P <0.01）。流域年可能蒸散率和年实际蒸散波动较大，年实际蒸散虽有波动但增加趋势非常明显（P <0.01）。流域净第一性生产力（P）平均值为2.86 t DM·hm^-2·a^-1，呈现显著的增加趋势（P <0.01）。从1961年开始湖水位呈现逐年波动下降的趋势，到2004年水位最低（P<0.01）；2004—2015年的近10 a连续上升，上升速率达14.4 m·（10 a）^-1（P <0.01）。流域气温升高、降水量增加，流域气候呈显著的暖湿化特征，入湖河流径流量也呈现出弱的增加态势；气候暖湿化特征导致流域生物温度增加，植被生长状况得到改善，[WTBX]NPP[WTBZ]显著增加。年降水量增多，河流径流量增大，湖水位抬升；前一年的降水量、≥0 ℃积温、温度、径流量、NPP和蒸发量对湖水位的影响更大；NDVI和NPP的增加反映流域植被生长状况得到好转，从而增加了流域植被水土保持和水源涵养能力，对湖水位产生间接的影响。降水量、≥0 ℃积温、温度、径流量和NPP对青海湖水位起到正反馈效应，而蒸发量对湖水位主要起负反馈效应，年降水量和年径流量是湖水位变化的最直接的影响因子。     

鄱阳湖流域水文变化特征成因及旱涝规律

本研究分析了1960-2008年鄱阳湖流域的气候和水文变化特征,用水量和能量平衡关系解释和印证了这些特征,并由此揭示了鄱阳湖流域水文变化特征的成因及干旱和洪涝发生的规律.得到以下主要结论:1)正常或偏湿年份鄱阳湖流域6月份容纳水量能力已达到饱和,若6-7月降水量超出正常年份,则流域超饱和,洪涝发生.长江中上游降水量7月份的异常偏多会对鄱阳湖流域的洪涝起触发和强化作用.2)鄱阳湖流域7-10月蒸发量大于降水量,特别是7-8月蒸发量大于降水量的一倍以上,所以若4-6月流域降水量少于平均年同期量的20％以上,则累积效应使秋旱发生.当初冬(11月)降水偏少时,秋旱可持续到来年的初春,形成严重的春旱.长江中上游降水量对鄱阳湖流域的春旱没有直接影响,但7-8月降水量偏少时则对秋旱起重要的强化作用.3)长江对鄱阳湖流域的水文过程和旱涝的发生、发展的影响主要在7-8月的“长江与鄱阳湖耦合作用”时期和9-10月的“弱长江作用”期.     

The Holocene history of West Basin Lake,Victoria, Australia; chemical changes based on fossil biota and sediment mineralogy

Analyses of diatoms, ostracods, pollen and sediment mineralogy from a 524 cm core from a stratified, hypersaline crater lake, West Basin, Victoria, has revealed clear shifts in the lake's water balance and chemistry and the region's climate over the last 10 000 years. Diatom and ostracod analyses reveal lake water salinity changes which are consistent with the conditions suitable for the precipitation of the carbonate and other minerals identified using x-ray diffraction analysis. The fluctuations in lake water balance deduced from diatom and ostracod inferred lake salinity suggest that the lake began to fill at the beginning of the Holocene and was saline and shallow. Toward the mid-Holocene the water levels rose and yet the lake remained largely saline. The late Holocene is marked by a return to more shallow but fluctuating, water conditions. Through the whole period, the regional dryland vegetation was dominated by open sclerophyll woodland. Both the lacustrine and regional environments interpreted here are consistent with those from Holocene records elsewhere in the region.This is the fourth in a series of papers published in this issue on the paleolimnology of arid regions. These papers were presented at the Sixth International Palaeolimnology Symposium held 19–21 April, 1993 at the Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. Dr A. R. Chivas served as guest editor for these papers.     

冬夏季温度和降水变化对青海湖全新世环境变化的影响初探

青海湖是国内最大的内陆湖泊,位于青藏高原东北缘,因其处在东亚夏季风、印度季风和西风带的交替控制区域,对气候变化十分敏感,成为古环境变化研究的热点地区。有关青海湖的形成演化、环境变化和水文变化的研究也存在多种观点。本研究再分析了青海湖已报道的古环境指标和气候模式模拟的夏季、冬季温度和降水变化,力图更加全面地理解青海湖全新世以来的古环境变化。研究发现早全新世11~8 ka夏季降水量和表面蒸发量较大,冬季降水稀少,湖泊水位只有十余米深,使得青海湖周边风沙活动频繁。并且,早全新世的气候不稳定,经历了频繁和较大幅度的波动。全新世气候适宜期出现在8~6 ka,古环境指标指示这一时期为温暖湿润的气候环境,湖盆内植被以森林草原为主,湖泊水位不断上升。青海湖地区的夏季降水自6 ka开始减少,然而冬季降水增加,同时夏季温度和蒸发量减少,使得湖区植被组成由森林草原向高山草甸转变,湖区大范围形成古土壤。湖区古环境条件在晚全新世距今1.5 ka开始恶化,冬季和夏季降水同时减少,湖泊水位下降,风沙活动再次加强。     

Hydrogeological investigation of Chappice Lake, southeastern Alberta: Groundwater inputs to a saline basin

Sediment cores from Chappice Lake, a hypersaline, groundwater-fed lake in southeastern Alberta, have been used in previous studies to reconstruct Holocene climate using lake levels as a source for proxy climate data. This assumes that the lake is fed by a shallow groundwater system sensitive to changes in climate. In this study we use the dynamics and chemistry of groundwater entering the lake to test this hypothesis.Groundwater inputs calculated from historical records using a simple water budget were highest during periods when the precipitation deficit was high. Over specific time intervals, the expected relationship between lake volumes and climate were not always found. Feedback loops between lake levels and groundwater input, and time lags within the system are the mechanisms proposed to explain these discrepancies.Field measurements suggest discharge of a local surficial groundwater system. Slug tests reveal a high conductivity system (K = 10-5 m/s) surrounding the lake. Hydraulic heads measured in standpipe, multilevel and minipiezometers installed around Chappice Lake show that the lake is situated in a closed hydraulic head contour. Hydraulic heads and water table elevations show strong annual fluctuations corresponding to seasonal changes in recharge. Horizontal hydraulic gradients measured in areas of groundwater springs indicate a strong horizontal component of flow towards the lake. Vertical hydraulic gradients are low and indicate the upward flow of water consistent with the discharge of a shallow, surfical groundwater system.Groundwater sampled from deposits surrounding Chappice Lake and springs feeding the lake have compositions similar to both shallow surficial aquifers and bedrock aquifers suggesting that the lake may be receiving inputs from both sources. However, evaporation simulations using PHRQPITZ, show that the evaporation of water typical of bedrock aquifers result in a mineral assemblage and brine composition different from that found at Chappice Lake. This suggests that discharge of a regional groundwater system can be eliminated as a dominant source over the lake's history. Evaporation simulations suggest that evaporation of groundwater from shallow surficial deposits can best explain the present mineral assemblage and brine chemistry and were likely the dominant source of water to the lake.Bedrock and shallow surficial groundwater sources have different chemistries and isotopic compositions. In hydrogeological settings such as Chappice Lake where more than one source may contribute to the lake, the relative importance of the different sources may change with changes in climate. If the source water composition to the lake changes, identifying changes in climate or hydrology based on changes in the composition of the lake preserved in sediment core will be made more difficult. This may complicate paleoclimate and paleohydrological reconstructions that rely on mineralogical and isotopic data.     

Lake-Level Fluctuations and Small-Scale Vegetation Patterns During the Late Glacial in The Netherlands

Late glacial changes in the vegetation were studied in and around a former lake on the southeastern side of a coversand ridge near Milheeze (southern Netherlands). Analyses of microfossils and macroremains and AMS ¹⁴C dating were performed on four sediment cores along a transect from sand ridge to the lake centre. Small-scale vegetation patterns and lake-level fluctuations were reconstructed in detail based on the information provided by the transect. For the first time in The Netherlands, cores along a transect within one lake were used to reconstruct the amplitude of late glacial lake-level fluctuations. Near Milheeze, a small and shallow lake was formed during the Bølling. The large increase in the water level during the Bølling and early Allerød, and the transition to more eutrophic conditions at the start of the Allerød, were probably related to the disappearance of permafrost. During the Allerød, open birch and pine woodlands developed in the area. In the lake, organic deposits accumulated, and the lake size and depth fluctuated. At the start of the Younger Dryas, higher lake water levels were recorded and woodlands became more open as a result of both a drop in the temperature and an increase in the effective precipitation. During the late Younger Dryas the lake water level dropped as the climate became drier and temperatures slightly increased. Accumulation of organic deposits in the lake ceased at the end of the Younger Dryas, which was caused by a drop in the water level in combination with the hydroseral succession process within the lake itself. The climatic signal reflected in the late glacial flora and lake-level fluctuations agree well with other published data from The Netherlands.     

青海湖碳酸盐氧同位素环境记录再认识

青海湖是我国内陆最大的闭流型水体,地处东亚季风和西风的交汇影响区,对区域降水的改变等气候变化反应敏感,其水位变化历史是研究区域季风环境演变极其宝贵和重要的环境档案。青海湖Q14B孔岩芯介壳δ18Oc变化曲线自1991年发表以来,受到国内外同行的广泛关注和继续探讨。依据近年来青海湖气候与环境演变研究的最新研究结果和个人对闭流型湖泊同位素地球化学的认识,对介壳δ18Oc变化曲线进行了重新判读并得出以下结论:14.5~10.5 ka B.P.,青海湖区气候已逐渐从干冷向温湿过渡,季风降水逐渐增加;10.8~10.5 ka B.P.,青海湖处于碳酸盐滩湖环境,湖水深度从几米演变到接近干涸;10.5~9.5 kaB.P.,季风降水增加;9.5~8 ka B.P,湖水位从此前的接近干涸演变到此间的2~8 m,δ18Oc值跌落到一个较低的位置;8~3.5ka B.P,气候条件相对稳定,湖水不断蒸发引起重同位素的富集;3.5~0ka B.P,湖水处于同位素稳定阶段。研究结果还显示,δ18Oc值的短期波动与湖泊水位短期变化关系密切且明显,即水位高低分别对应δ18Oc的低值与高值。δ18Oc值的长期变化与湖泊水位长期变化关系不明显,水位较浅时,二者几乎无关联;水位较深时,水位的长期缓慢下降自然会导致δ18Oc逐渐攀升,而水位的长期缓慢上升也可以伴随δ18Oc逐渐攀升。     

巴丹吉林沙漠沙山区高含量薄膜水与水分平衡研究

通过野外实地考察和实验分析,在巴丹吉林沙漠的呼和吉林湖东沙山、呼和吉林湖西沙山和伊利克敖包沙山斜坡上发现了高含量薄膜水和带状分布的灌木植被。分析表明：① 沙山沙层中出现了含量在3％~5％之间、占据厚度为0.5~3.0 m之间的高含量薄膜水,并出现了一部分水分含量大于5％的重力水,这在极端干旱的沙山斜坡沙层中是非常少见的。② 沙层中的含水量垂向分布与重力水的存在指示,在当年雨季末期,大气降水就完全能够通过沙层入渗达到2~4 m或更大深度,从而避免了蒸发作用的消耗,确保了沙层水分能够通过入渗向深层运移。③ 沙山沙层中高含量薄膜水和重力水的存在以及灌木植被带的发育充分证明,该区大气降水在经过蒸发与蒸腾消耗之后,仍有剩余的水分渗入地下,显示了沙山区沙层水分为明显的正平衡。高含量薄膜水的存在和带状植被的发育的表明大气降水至少是该区地下水和湖水的重要补给来源之一。④ 沙山表层1~4 m深度范围有时存在含量大于5%的重力水,表明沙山表层水分运移动力很强。沙层入渗率高,沙层水受蒸发影响的深度小,利于大气降水向地下水的转化,这也是该区大气降水能够补给地下水的重要原因。     

湖泊自生碳酸盐氧同位素环境记录研究：（一）环境解释模型

湖泊自生碳酸盐氧同位素组成(δ18OC)在区域气候与环境变化方面的应用研究近年来发展迅速,成果令人瞩目,保存在各类湖泊沉积物柱芯中的δ18OC记录揭示了湖泊水温乃至汇水区域气温,湖泊不同水深处的水温差异、湖泊水位、降水δ18O、冰川融水δ18O、湖水盐度等重要的气候和环境信息。对前人通过研究来自不同类型湖泊、具不同曲线形态的δ18OC记录提出的多种环境解释模型进行了归纳。     

1974—2009年西藏羊卓雍错湖泊水位变化分析

羊卓雍错(简称羊湖)是青藏高原南部最大的一个封闭型内陆湖泊,位于西藏自治区浪卡子县境内,与纳木错、玛旁雍错一起并列为西藏三大圣湖,是藏南地区重要的风景旅游区。始建于1989年的羊湖发电站于1997年正式投入运营,为世界上海拔最高的抽水蓄能电站。在全球气候变暖和人类活动的影响下,其湖面水位变化及其成因备受国内外关注。利用1974—2009年羊湖白地水文观测资料,分析了36年来羊湖水位年际、年内变化特征及其与自然要素(气温、降水和蒸发等)和人类活动之间的关系。结果表明,羊湖平均水位为19.06 m,历史最高值出现在1980年,为21.37 m,2009年水位降至17.08 m的历史最低值。自1974年有水位观测资料以来,羊湖水位呈波动式下降趋势,其中,1974—1977年水位表现为逐年下降,幅度为0.26 m/a;之后至1980年以0.4 m/a呈上升态势,1980年羊湖水位达到了历史最高值;此后,至1996年水位呈显著下降趋势,减少速率为2.08 m/(10 a),1996年是羊湖水位上升的一个转折点,至2004年水位在逐年上升;2004—2009年是一个水位显著下降的时段,速率为0.57 m/a,也是水位下降趋势最为显著的时段。羊湖水位下降年份占整个时段的56%,而44%的年份水位在上升。1974—1984年及2001—2005年水位高于多年平均值,而1985—2000年及2006年之后水位都低于多年平均值。羊湖水位的年内最低值一般出现在6月,最高值则在10月。羊湖年内水位变化对流域降水量的响应具有一定的滞后性,时间为2个月左右。羊湖水位变化主要是由降水波动、气温上升、蒸发的变化等自然因素共同作用的结果,特别是,流域年际降水量波动是湖面水位升降的主要影响因子,人为和工程的影响范围和程度均较小。自羊湖电站1997年运行以来,流域的环境在暖湿的气候大背景下有所改善,且对羊湖水位变化无明显影响。但如果电站不能蓄水与发电并举,达不到总体不消耗羊湖水量的设计目标和水量平衡,对羊湖水位的影响将不可忽视。