情系松花湖

秋阳里,董永卿沿着岁月风尘的山径,满怀童稚般的纯真和胜利者的欢欣,向巍峨松花湖长堤攀登…… 尽管董永卿已是６０开外的人了,但他仍壮志凌云,昂首于跻天大坝之上,深邃的目光,久久遥望着松花湖的波涛。这时松花湖在董永卿眼里特别壮观：湖岸曲折狭长,湖面宽窄参差,特别在这秋高气爽的时节,环山五彩缤纷,白的云,红的枫,黄的榛,绿的松,还有橙棕的苔类,一起辉映湖中奇峰怪石,基调鲜的浑厚,层次多变和谐,美的令人心醉。其实,对这天然画卷的松花湖,董永卿并不陌生,过去几十年他来过这里无数次,然而,从未这样动情。 １９…     

国际合作与大气科学的进展

近十几年来,在大气科学领域内的国际合作,范围广泛,关系协调,成果丰硕,与其他领域的国际合作相比,堪称“国际合作的一个典范”。为什么气象领域的国际合作会如此卓有成效呢?这在很大程度上是由大气科学的性质所决定的。大气无国界,大气科学发展到今天,面临的问题越来越深刻,越来越尖锐,越来越具有全球性,而这些问题的解决,依靠一个国家或几个国家的努力是办不到的,必须依靠国际间的密切合作,依靠整个气象界的紧密配合,甚至全人类的共同努力才有可能得到解决。气象科学又具有很强的公益性,各类社会,社会各阶层,各行各业都需要气象服务,因而这种合作得到了普遍支持。其次,这种国际合作能够有效的进行,与当今科学技术的发展水平密不可分,整个科学技术进步了,才能     

为了大地的丰收──记共产党员大安市气象局局长曲长波

他,没有惊天动地的伟业,没有掷地有声的话语,有的只是在自己平凡的岗位上埋头苦干,兢兢业业,为大安市的气象事业默默无闻的奉献精神。他,就是年仅32岁的共产党员,大安市气象局局长曲长波。大安市的地理气候条件较为复杂,干旱。冰雹、洪涝等自然灾害频繁发生,对全市的工农业生产构成了严重的危胁。因此,搞好气象科技服务的重要性,不言而喻。但是,由于多种多样的原因,大安市的气象科技服务工作多年来一直徘徊不前,服务创收寥寥无几。争取到的地方气象经费也微乎其微,由于入不敷出,致使债台高筑,负债5万多元,已经无法维持各…     

兴办经济实体 增强发展能力

为贯彻党的十三届八中全会和中央2号文件精神,鄂州市气象局制定了"工作创一流,生活奔小康"的具体措施,其中心就是:"加大改革力度,兴办经济实体,增强发展能力".一.更新观念,摆正关系随着经济改革节奏的加快,我们面临的危机日益加深,与社会各界的距离拉大.穷,不是我们所希望的,恰恰相反,我们都希望生活丰富多彩,能在整个社会经济中,凭我们的劳动,凭我们的科技力量,创造出价值,同全国人民一道富裕起来.我们业已进行的改革,如有偿服务,由于利用了现代化的科技力量,又具有本部门的业务特点,稳步发展.但综合经营由于资金     

运用辩证法摸索天气变化规律

天气变化,晴来雨去,冷暖交错,往复无穷。唯心论和不可知论认为:天机莫知,天有不测风雨。然而辩证唯物论认为:世界是可知的,天气变化规律是可以认识的,天有可测风云。目前,由于人们受科学水平和条件的限制,对天气变化的规律性,还缺乏完全的了解,天气预报工作,尚存在着这样或那样的问题。但是,只要我们用毛主席的哲学思想作指导,按照辩证唯物主义的世界观和方法论分析事物,揭露天气变化的矛盾,就能逐步摸清天气的演变规律,作出较准确的天气预报。近年来,我们在毛主席无产阶级革命路线指引下,在落实“两个服务”的实践中,反复学习     

论中专英语的教与学

电化教学是当前改革教学方法,实行现代化教学的一种方式,特别对外语教学来说,是一种有力的辅助手段.为了尽快地提高英语教学质量,我在英语教学中,有效地利用了本校语音文实验室的视听设备(包括录音机,扩音机,监听对讲选择器,数码管,耳机,话筒,投影幻灯机等).经过外语教学的长期试验,电化教学收到了良好的效果.电化教室上外语课,其特点是利用直观的图象,动作和声音配合,创造外语情景,培养学生的听说能力.上课时,我先用英语介绍本课的教学程序,故事内容.然后让学生边看幻灯,边听录音,认真模仿跟读.由于坚持这种训练,学生的语音语调基本上正     

时间篇

一天晚上,一位工程师和一位年轻的业务人员促漆谈心,老工程师语重心长的对这位年轻的同志说:象你这样年龄,在人的一生中,正是黄金时代,是出成果的时候,不要过多地考虑家务,把宝贵的时间白白浪费掉。这一席出自老一辈对年轻一代的期望,所谈出的肺腑之言,不仅使这位青年同志领首默然,立志发奋,就连坐在一旁的我,也是十分感动的。可是,在实际生活中,虚掷时间者却     

全力以赴,投入春播气象服务

南疆春早,一年一度的春播生产高潮即将来临。今年是八十年代的第一年,胜利地完成春播任务,对于落实党的三中全会精神,加快农业发展速度,促进国民经济的高涨,具有重大的意义。春播生产对气象条件要求严格,选择有利时机,就能趋利避害,适时播种,抢上季节,为全年农业增产打下基础。相反,就会烂种烂秧,错过季节,耽误下造,使全年生产被动。因此,必须把春播的气象服务工作作为当前工作的中心,不失时机地集中全力抓好。     

风景之外——给一位看惯世态炎凉的漂泊者

漂泊是诗意的 ,浪漫的 ,充满情调的。当然 ,这只是你踏上漂泊之路前的想象。多年的漂泊生涯 ,让你彻底改变了当初对漂泊这一生存状态的认识。因为现实的漂泊远没有你想象中的那般绚丽美好。我模模糊糊地记得 ,那个五月的早晨 ,潮湿而平常 ,说不上温暖 ,也说不上温馨 ;天空低沉 ,有云 ,或许无云。你像往常一样 ,睡眼惺忪 ,残梦悠悠 ,百般无聊 ,也懒得盘算怎样打发如期而来的日子 ,只是习惯性地推开了老屋东墙上的杉木窗子。忽然 ,你伫立窗前 ,眺望远方 :生长于故乡贫瘠土地上的油菜花 ,一夜之间悄然黄遍了村前寨后 ,浮动的暗香 ,在袅袅如烟的…     

统计程序包方法介绍之二

在统计分析中,预报因子的优劣,直接关系着最终预报的成败。而检验预报因子的好坏常采用本文所介绍的方法,即,因子的分析与处理。这部分内容较多,又是本程序包的核心部分,所以分两期刊。第一部分介绍各类方差分析,独立性分析,概率组合,统计组合,因子分析。第二部分介绍谱分析,功率谱,交叉谱,各类聚类分析,趋势分析,网格化分析。     

关于年代际气候变化可能机制的研究

年代际气候变化作为年际和月季气候变化的重要背景,往往影响着年际和月季时间尺度的气候及特征。随着科学的发展进步和社会需求的提高,年代际气候变化已成为人们关注的重要问题。作为气候动力学和气候预测研究的重要内容之一,年代际气候变化及其动力学机制的研究在国内外都在蓬勃开展,并取得了不少的成果。本文除简要介绍了中国气候的年代际变化特征,将着重就年代际气候变化的可能机制作一个系统的综合性讨论,内容主要包括全球主要海温变化模态的影响、气候系统相互关系年代际变化的影响、大气行星尺度系统年代际变化的影响,以及太阳活动及火山爆发的影响等。大家知道,年代际气候变化研究十分重要,但也可以看到年代际气候变化的动力学机制却十分复杂,不少问题还没有搞的十分清楚,需要加大力量进行深入研究;我们相信,深入的研究结果必将对年代际气候变化的预测提供可靠的科学依据,进而推动年代际气候变化的业务预测及其能力的提高。     

IPCC AR6报告解读：未来的全球气候——基于情景的预估和近期信息

依据IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组报告第四章的内容,对未来全球气候的预估结果进行解读。报告对21世纪全球表面气温、降水、大尺度环流和变率模态、冰冻圈和海洋圈的可能变化进行了系统评估,并对2100年以后的气候变化做了合理估计。评估指出全球平均表面气温将在未来20年内达到或超过1.5℃,平均降水也将增加,但随季节和区域而异,同时变率将增大。大尺度环流和变率模态受内部变率影响较大。到21世纪末,北冰洋可能出现无冰期;全球海洋会继续酸化,平均海平面将持续上升,百年内上升幅度依赖不同排放情景,都在2100年后继续升高。在最新的评估中采用多种约束方法,减小了预估不确定性的范围。AR6对于低排放情景以及“小概率高增暖情节”的关注为应对气候变化提供了更多、更完整的信息。综合报告的评估结果指出,未来需要进一步减小区域,特别是季风区气候预估的不确定性,并从科学研究和模式发展两方面加强我国气候预估能力的建设。     

北极涛动的年代际变化及其气候影响

北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation,AO)是北半球热带外地区大气环流变率的主导模态,对北半球以及区域尺度气温变化具有重要影响.AO可在没有外强迫条件下通过d波流相互作用形成,因此它被认为是全球气候系统内部变率的重要组成部分.研究年代际尺度上AO的变化及其气候影响,可加深对当前北半球气候变化规律的物理理解,也...     

Thrusts and Prospects on Understanding and Predicting Asian Monsoon Climate

Development of monsoon climate prediction through integrated research efforts to improve our understanding of monsoon variability and predictability is a primary goal of the Asian Monsoon Years （200-2011） and International Monsoon Study under the leadership of the World Climate Research Programme. The present paper reviews recent progress in Asian monsoon research focusing on （1） understanding and modeling of the monsoon variability, （2） determining the sources and limits of predictability, and （3） assessing the current status of climate prediction, with emphasis on the weekly to interannual time scales. Particular attention is paid to identify scientific issues and thrust areas, as well as potential directions to move forward in an attempt to stimulate future research to advance our understanding of monsoon climate dynamics and improve our capability to forecast Asian monsoon climate variation.     

中国气候预测研究与业务发展的回顾

天气预报是指一周内至两周时间尺度的气象预报,而月季及以上时间尺度的预报则属于气候预测范畴。中国的气候预测起步很早,无论在研究工作中还是在业务应用上都取得了显著成就。文中扼要回顾了这些研究和业务发展成就,重点包括:对于季风和梅雨、寒潮的早期认知和后期研究发现、早期气候预测业务发展概况、动力气候预测的早期探索、动力-统计气候预测方法的研制和应用、气候预测模式的发展以及初始化和多模式集合预测、东亚气候系统变异的全方位探索、气候预测范畴的不断拓展和气候预测研究的不断创新。也对未来气候预测研究和业务发展提出了几个重大挑战性课题,涉及不同时间尺度气候变异过程之间的相互作用、季节内至年代际气候预测、气候系统模式及初始化、动力-统计相结合的气候预测方法等方面。      

Does recent global warming suggest an enhanced greenhouse effect?

Considerable controversy has been generated by the observation that the Earth's climate has warmed over the last century. Public policy decisions hinge on the question of whether this trend is natural climate variability or the result of the increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. The strength of the enhanced greenhouse effect depends, in large part, on the uncertain value of climate sensitivity. In this paper climate sensitivity is estimated from the global temperature record by assuming models for greenhouse forcing, climate response to forcing, and climate variability. We find optimal estimates of climate sensitivity are remarkably insensitive to assumptions, at least for forcing excluding the effect of aerosols, and these values are considerably less than most predictions arising from General Circulation Models (GCM's). It is, however, the statistical significance of these estimates that is sensitive to assumptions about climate variability. Assuming climate variability with a time scale of a decade or less, climate sensitivity is estimated to be significantly greater than zero, but also significantly lower than that predicted by GCM's. Climate variability with a century time scale is consistent with both the recent temperature record and the pre-instrumental record for the last millenium; if this type of variability is assumed, the estimate of climate sensitivity has a confidence band wide enough to encompass both zero and typical values obtained by GCM's. With century time-scale variability it will be several decades before confident estimates can be made.     

CMIP6年代际气候预测计划（DCPP）概况与评述

年代际气候预测计划（DCPP）是第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的子计划之一,其目标是利用多模式开展气候系统年代际预测、可预测性和变率机制研究。DCPP设计了3组试验,即年代际回报试验、预报试验以及理解年代际变率机制和可预测性的敏感性试验。目前有21个模式拟参与DCPP计划,其中包括5个来自中国的模式。DCPP将推动解决气候系统从年际到年代际尺度预测相关的多项科学问题,评估当前气候预测系统预报技巧,挖掘潜在可预报性,研究长时间尺度气候变率形成机制,提供对科学和社会有用的预测产品。     

An examination of internally generated variability in long climate simulations

General circulation model experiments designed to estimate the magnitude and structure of internally generated variability and to help understand the mechanisms underlying this variability are described. The experiments consist of three multi-century integrations of a rhomboidal 15, 9 level, version of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies atmospheric general circulation model: a run with fixed sea surface temperatures and equinox solar radiation, a run with seasonally varying climatological sea surface temperatures and seasonally varying solar forcing, and a run with seasonally varying solar forcing in which the state of the ocean is predicted by a 3° by 3°, 16 vertical level, nearly global domain version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Modular Ocean Model. No flux correction is used in the coupled model integration. Selected surface fields of the three runs are compared to each other as well as to the observed climate. Statistical properties of variability on interannual time scales are compared between the runs. Evidence is presented that climate time scale variability in the simulations is produced by random weather time scale forcing due to the integrating effect of elements of the system with long memories. The importance of ocean variability for land climate variability is demonstrated and attributed to both the memory effect and coupled atmosphere-ocean instability.     

Use of general circulation model output in the creation of climate change scenarios for impact analysis

Many scientific studies warn of a rapid global climate change during the next century. These changes are understood with much less certainty on a regional scale than on a global scale, but effects on ecosystems and society will occur at local and regional scales. Consequently, in order to study the true impacts of climate change, regional scenarios of future climate are needed. One of the most important sources of information for creating scenarios is the output from general circulation models (GCMs) of the climate system. However, current state-of-the-art GCMs are unable to simulate accurately even the current seasonal cycle of climate on a regional basis. Thus the simple technique of adding the difference between 2 × CO₂ and 1 × CO₂ GCM simulations to current climatic time series cannot produce scenarios with appropriate spatial and temporal details without corrections for model deficiencies. In this study a technique is developed to allow the information from GCM simulations to be used, while accommodating for the deficiencies. GCM output is combined with knowledge of the regional climate to produce scenarios of the equilibrium climate response to a doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration for three case study regions, China, Sub-Saharan Africa and Venezuela, for use in biological effects models. By combining the general climate change calculated with several GCMs with the observed patterns of interannual climate variability, reasonable scenarios of temperature and precipitation variations can be created. Generalizations of this procedure to other regions of the world are discussed.     

Vulnerable or Resilient? A Multi-Scale Assessment of Climate Impacts and Vulnerability in Norway

This paper explores the issue of climate vulnerability in Norway, an affluent country that is generally considered to be resilient to the impacts of climate change. In presenting a multi-scale assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability in Norway, we show that the concept of vulnerability depends on the scale of analysis. Both exposure and the distribution of climate sensitive sectors vary greatly across scale. So do the underlying social and economic conditions that influence adaptive capacity. These findings question the common notion that climate change may be beneficial for Norway, and that the country can readily adapt to climate change. As scale differences are brought into consideration, vulnerability emerges within some regions, localities, and social groups. To cope with actual and potential changes in climate and climate variability, it will be necessary to acknowledge climate vulnerabilities at the regional and local levels, and to address them accordingly. This multi-scale assessment of impacts and vulnerability in Norway reinforces the importance of scale in global change research.