Modeling studies of the upper ocean response to a tropical cyclone

A coupled ocean and boundary layer flux numerical modeling system is used to study the upper ocean response to surface heat and momentum fluxes associated with a major hurricane, namely, Hurricane Dennis (July 2005) in the Gulf of Mexico. A suite of experiments is run using this modeling system, constructed by coupling a Navy Coastal Ocean Model simulation of the Gulf of Mexico to an atmospheric flux model. The modeling system is forced by wind fields produced from satellite scatterometer and atmospheric model wind data, and by numerical weather prediction air temperature data. The experiments are initialized from a data assimilative hindcast model run and then forced by surface fluxes with no assimilation for the time during which Hurricane Dennis impacted the region. Four experiments are run to aid in the analysis: one is forced by heat and momentum fluxes, one by only momentum fluxes, one by only heat fluxes, and one with no surface forcing. An equation describing the change in the upper ocean hurricane heat potential due to the storm is developed. Analysis of the model results show that surface heat fluxes are primarily responsible for widespread reduction (0.5°–1.5°C) of sea surface temperature over the inner West Florida Shelf 100–300 km away from the storm center. Momentum fluxes are responsible for stronger surface cooling (2°C) near the center of the storm. The upper ocean heat loss near the storm center of more than 200 MJ/m² is primarily due to the vertical flux of thermal energy between the surface layer and deep ocean. Heat loss to the atmosphere during the storm’s passage is approximately 100–150 MJ/m². The upper ocean cooling is enhanced where the preexisting mixed layer is shallow, e.g., within a cyclonic circulation feature, although the heat flux to the atmosphere in these locations is markedly reduced.     

Upper oceanic response to tropical cyclone Phailin in the Bay of Bengal using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model

A numerical simulation of very severe cyclonic storm ‘Phailin’, which originated in southeastern Bay of Bengal (BoB) and propagated northwestward during 10–15 October 2013, was carried out using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. A Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) was used to make exchanges of fluxes consistent between the atmospheric model ‘Weather Research and Forecasting’ (WRF) and ocean circulation model ‘Regional Ocean Modelling System’ (ROMS) components of the ‘Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport’ (COAWST) modelling system. The track and intensity of tropical cyclone (TC) Phailin simulated by the WRF component of the coupled model agrees well with the best-track estimates reported by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Ocean model component (ROMS) was configured over the BoB domain; it utilized the wind stress and net surface heat fluxes from the WRF model to investigate upper oceanic response to the passage of TC Phailin. The coupled model shows pronounced sea surface cooling (2–2.5 °C) and an increase in sea surface salinity (SSS) (2–3 psu) after 06 GMT on 12 October 2013 over the northwestern BoB. Signature of this surface cooling was also observed in satellite data and buoy measurements. The oceanic mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals relative roles of different oceanic processes in controlling the mixed layer temperature over the region of observed cooling. The heat budget highlighted major contributions from horizontal advection and vertical entrainment processes in governing the mixed layer cooling (up to ?0.1 °C h^?1) and, thereby, reduction in sea surface temperature (SST) in the northwestern BoB during 11–12 October 2013. During the post-cyclone period, the net heat flux at surface regained its diurnal variations with a noontime peak that provided a warming tendency up to 0.05 °C h^?1 in the mixed layer. Clear signatures of TC-induced upwelling are seen in vertical velocity (about 2.5 × 10^?3 m s^?1), rise in isotherms and isohalines along 85–88° E longitudes in the northwestern BoB. The study demonstrates that a coupled atmosphere-ocean model (WRF + ROMS) serves as a useful tool to investigate oceanic response to the passage of cyclones.     

Turbulent heat fluxes during an intense cold-air outbreak over the Kuroshio Extension Region: results from a high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean model

The coupled ocean atmosphere mesoscale prediction system that includes the Navy Coastal Ocean Model has been configured for the Kuroshio Extension region using multiple one-way nested high-resolution grids. The coupled model system was used to simulate a strong cold-air outbreak event from 31 Jan to 7 Feb 2005 in good agreement with meteorological data from a surface buoy data and QuikSCAT scatterometer winds. Latent heat fluxes and sensible heat fluxes were computed during the event with daily averages in excess of 1,500 W/m² and 500 W/m², respectively, and combined instantaneous turbulent heat fluxes up to 2,300 W/m². The largest heat fluxes were found in two large meanders of the Kuroshio and along its southern flank. Strong gradients in turbulent heat fluxes coincided with strong sea surface temperature gradients and were maintained during the cold-air outbreak simulation. The large turbulent heat fluxes lead to significant subtropical mode water formation during the event at a rate about 10 Sv in the cyclonic recirculation region south of the Kuroshio. This increased the volume of core layer mode water within the temperature range 16°C to 18°C by 10% and increased the surface area of that layer directly exposed to the atmosphere by a factor close to 5 in the model domain.     

Air–sea interactions during strong winter extratropical storms

A high-resolution, regional coupled atmosphere–ocean model is used to investigate strong air–sea interactions during a rapidly developing extratropical cyclone (ETC) off the east coast of the USA. In this two-way coupled system, surface momentum and heat fluxes derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting model and sea surface temperature (SST) from the Regional Ocean Modeling System are exchanged via the Model Coupling Toolkit. Comparisons are made between the modeled and observed wind velocity, sea level pressure, 10 m air temperature, and sea surface temperature time series, as well as a comparison between the model and one glider transect. Vertical profiles of modeled air temperature and winds in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and temperature variations in the upper ocean during a 3-day storm period are examined at various cross-shelf transects along the eastern seaboard. It is found that the air–sea interactions near the Gulf Stream are important for generating and sustaining the ETC. In particular, locally enhanced winds over a warm sea (relative to the land temperature) induce large surface heat fluxes which cool the upper ocean by up to 2 °C, mainly during the cold air outbreak period after the storm passage. Detailed heat budget analyses show the ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux dominates the upper ocean heat content variations. Results clearly show that dynamic air–sea interactions affecting momentum and buoyancy flux exchanges in ETCs need to be resolved accurately in a coupled atmosphere–ocean modeling framework.     

Submesoscale features and their interaction with fronts and internal tides in a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model of the Bay of Bengal

Large freshwater fluxes into the Bay of Bengal by rainfall and river discharges result in strong salinity fronts in the bay. In this study, a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model with comprehensive physics is used to model the weather, ocean circulation, and wave field in the Bay of Bengal. Our objective is to explore the submesoscale activity that occurs in a realistic coupled model that resolves mesoscales and allows part of the submesoscale field. Horizontal resolution in the atmosphere varies from 2 to 6 km and is 13 km for surface waves, while the ocean model is submesoscale permitting with resolutions as high as 1.5 km and a vertical resolution of 0.5 m in the upper 10 m. In this paper, three different cases of oceanic submesoscale features are discussed. In the first case, heavy rainfall and intense downdrafts produced by atmospheric convection are found to force submesoscale currents, temperature, and salinity anomalies in the oceanic mixed layer and impact the mesoscale flow. In a second case, strong solitary-like waves are generated by semidiurnal tides in the Andaman Sea and interact with mesoscale flows and fronts and affect submesoscale features generated along fronts. A third source of submesoscale variability is found further north in the Bay of Bengal where river outflows help maintain strong salinity gradients throughout the year. For that case, a comparison with satellite observations of sea surface height anomalies, sea surface temperature, and chlorophyll shows that the model captures the observed mesoscale eddy features of the flow field, but in addition, submesoscale upwelling and downwelling patterns associated with ageostrophic secondary circulations along density fronts are also captured by the model.     

Modelling atmospheric and induced non-tidal oceanic loading contributions to surface gravity and tilt measurements

We investigate the contribution of atmospheric and its induced non-tidal oceanic loading effects on surface time-varying gravity and tilt measurements for several stations in Western Europe. The ocean response to pressure forcing can be modelled accordingly to the inverted barometer, i.e. assuming that air pressure variations are fully compensated by static sea height changes, or using ocean general circulation models. We validate two runs of the HUGO-m barotropic ocean model by comparing predicted sea surface height variations with hundred tide-gauge measurements along the European coasts. We then show that global surface pressure field, as well as a barotropic high-resolution ocean model forced by air pressure and winds allow in most cases a significant reduction of the variance of gravity residuals and, to a smaller extends tilt residuals.We finally show that precise gravity measurements with superconducting gravimeters allow the observation of large storm surges, occurring in the North Sea, even for inland stations. However, we also confirm that the continental hydrology contribution cannot be neglected. Thanks to their specific sensitivity feature, only tiltmeters closest to the coast can clearly detect the loading due to these storm surges.     

Numerical investigation of an oceanic resonant regime induced by hurricane winds

The oceanic mixed layer (OML) response to an idealized hurricane with different propagation speeds is investigated using a two-layer reduced gravity ocean model. First, the model performances are examined with respect to available observations relative to Hurricane Frances (2004). Then, 11 idealized simulations are performed with a Holland (Mon Weather Rev 108(8):1212–1218, 1980) symmetric wind profile as surface forcing with storm propagation speeds ranging from 2 to 12 m s⁻¹. By varying this parameter, the phasing between atmospheric and oceanic scales is modified. Consequently, it leads to different momentum exchanges between the hurricane and the OML and to various oceanic responses. The present study determines how OML momentum and heat budgets depend on this parameter. The kinetic energy flux due to surface wind stress is found to strongly depend on the propagation speed and on the cross-track distance from the hurricane center. A resonant regime between surface winds and near-inertial currents is clearly identified. This regime maximizes locally the energy flux into the OML. For fast-moving hurricanes (>6 m s⁻¹), the ratio of kinetic energy converted into turbulence depends only on the wind stress energy input. For slow-moving hurricanes (<6 m s⁻¹), the upwelling induced by current divergence enhances this conversion by shallowing the OML depth. Regarding the thermodynamic response, two regimes are identified with respect to the propagation speed. For slow-moving hurricanes, the upwelling combined with a sharp temperature gradient at the OML base formed in the leading part of the storm maximizes the oceanic heat loss. For fast propagation speeds, the resonance mechanism sets up the cold wake on the right side of the hurricane track. These results suggest that the propagation speed is a parameter as important as the surface wind speed to accurately describe the oceanic response to a moving hurricane.     

Parameterization of typhoon-induced ocean cooling using temperature equation and machine learning algorithms: an example of typhoon Soulik (2013)

This study proposed three algorithms that can potentially be used to provide sea surface temperature (SST) conditions for typhoon prediction models. Different from traditional data assimilation approaches, which provide prescribed initial/boundary conditions, our proposed algorithms aim to resolve a flow-dependent SST feedback between growing typhoons and oceans in the future time. Two of these algorithms are based on linear temperature equations (TE-based), and the other is based on an innovative technique involving machine learning (ML-based). The algorithms are then implemented into a Weather Research and Forecasting model for the simulation of typhoon to assess their effectiveness, and the results show significant improvement in simulated storm intensities by including ocean cooling feedback. The TE-based algorithm I considers wind-induced ocean vertical mixing and upwelling processes only, and thus obtained a synoptic and relatively smooth sea surface temperature cooling. The TE-based algorithm II incorporates not only typhoon winds but also ocean information, and thus resolves more cooling features. The ML-based algorithm is based on a neural network, consisting of multiple layers of input variables and neurons, and produces the best estimate of the cooling structure, in terms of its amplitude and position. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the typhoon-induced ocean cooling is a nonlinear process involving interactions of multiple atmospheric and oceanic variables. Therefore, with an appropriate selection of input variables and neuron sizes, the ML-based algorithm appears to be more efficient in prognosing the typhoon-induced ocean cooling and in predicting typhoon intensity than those algorithms based on linear regression methods.     

Regional coupled ocean–atmosphere downscaling in the Southeast Pacific: impacts on upwelling, mesoscale air–sea fluxes, and ocean eddies

Ocean–atmosphere coupling in the Humboldt Current System (HCS) of the Southeast Pacific is studied using the Scripps Coupled Ocean–atmosphere Regional (SCOAR) model, which is used to downscale the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis-2 (RA2) product for the period 2000–2007 at 20-km resolution. An interactive 2-D spatial smoother within the sea-surface temperature (SST)–flux coupler is invoked in a separate run to isolate the impact of the mesoscale (～50–200 km, in the oceanic sense) SST field felt by the atmosphere in the fully coupled run. For the HCS, SCOAR produces seasonal wind stress and wind stress curl patterns that agree better with QuikSCAT winds than those from RA2. The SCOAR downscaled wind stress distribution has substantially different impacts on the magnitude and structure of wind-driven upwelling processes along the coast compared to RA2. Along coastal locations such as Arica and Taltal, SCOAR and RA2 produce seasonally opposite signs in the total wind-driven upwelling transport. At San Juan, SCOAR shows that upwelling is mainly due to coastal Ekman upwelling transport, while in RA2 upwelling is mostly attributed to Ekman pumping. Fully coupled SCOAR shows significant SST–wind stress coupling during fall and winter, while smoothed SCOAR shows insignificant coupling throughout, indicating the important role of ocean mesoscale eddies on air–sea coupling in HCS. Coupling between SST, wind speed, and latent heat flux is incoherent in large-scale coupling and full coupling mode. In contrast, coupling between these three variables is clearly identified for oceanic mesoscales, which suggests that mesoscale SST affects latent heat directly through the bulk formulation, as well as indirectly through stability changes on the overlying atmosphere, which affects surface wind speeds. The SST–wind stress and SST–heat-flux couplings, however, fail to produce a strong change in the ocean eddy statistics. No rectified effects of ocean–atmosphere coupling were identified for either the atmospheric or oceanic mean conditions, suggesting that mesoscale coupling is too weak in this region to strongly alter the basic climate state.     

On the interaction between a hurricane,the Gulf Stream and coastal sea level

Tropical storms and hurricanes in the western North Atlantic Ocean can impact the US East Coast in several ways. Direct effects include storm surges, winds, waves, and precipitation and indirect effects include changes in ocean dynamics that consequently impact the coast. Hurricane Matthew [October, 2016] was chosen as a case study to demonstrate the interaction between an offshore storm, the Gulf Stream (GS) and coastal sea level. A regional numerical ocean model was used, to conduct sensitivity experiments with different surface forcing, using wind and heat flux data from an operational hurricane-ocean coupled forecast system. An additional experiment used the observed Florida Current (FC) transport during the hurricane as an inflow boundary condition. The experiments show that the hurricane caused a disruption in the GS flow that resulted in large spatial variations in temperatures with cooling of up to ~?4 °C by surface heat loss, but the interaction of the winds with the GS flow also caused some local warming near fronts and eddies (relative to simulations without a hurricane). A considerable weakening of the FC transport (~?30%) has been observed during the hurricane (a reduction of ~?10 Sv in 3 days; 1Sv?=?10⁶ m³ s^?1), so the impact of the FC was explored by the model. Unlike the abrupt and large wind-driven storm surge (up to 2 m water level change within 12 h in the South Atlantic Bight), the impact of the weakening GS on sea level is smaller but lasted for several days after the hurricane dissipated, as seen in both the model and altimeter data. These results can explain observations that show minor tidal flooding along long stretches of coasts for several days following passages of hurricanes. Further analysis showed the short-term impact of the hurricane winds on kinetic energy versus the long-term impact of the hurricane-induced mixing on potential energy, whereas several days are needed to reestablish the stratification and rebuild the strength of the GS to its pre-hurricane conditions. Understanding the interaction between storms, the Gulf Stream and coastal sea level can help to improve prediction of sea level rise and coastal flooding.     

Study of the air-sea interactions at the mesoscale: the SEMAPHORE experiment

The SEMAPHORE (Structure des Echanges Mer-Atmosphère, Propriétés des Hétérogénéités Océaniques: Recherche Expérimentale) experiment has been conducted from June to November 1993 in the Northeast Atlantic between the Azores and Madeira. It was centered on the study of the mesoscale ocean circulation and air-sea interactions. The experimental investigation was achieved at the mesoscale using moorings, floats, and ship hydrological survey, and at a smaller scale by one dedicated ship, two instrumented aircraft, and surface drifting buoys, for one and a half month in October-November (IOP: intense observing period). Observations from meteorological operational satellites as well as spaceborne microwave sensors were used in complement. The main studies undertaken concern the mesoscale ocean, the upper ocean, the atmospheric boundary layer, and the sea surface, and first results are presented for the various topics. From data analysis and model simulations, the main characteristics of the ocean circulation were deduced, showing the close relationship between the Azores front meander and the occurrence of Mediterranean water lenses (meddies), and the shift between the Azores current frontal signature at the surface and within the thermocline. Using drifting buoys and ship data in the upper ocean, the gap between the scales of the atmospheric forcing and the oceanic variability was made evident. A 2 °C decrease and a 40-m deepening of the mixed layer were measured within the IOP, associated with a heating loss of about 100 W m⁻². This evolution was shown to be strongly connected to the occurrence of storms at the beginning and the end of October. Above the surface, turbulent measurements from ship and aircraft were analyzed across the surface thermal front, showing a 30% difference in heat fluxes between both sides during a 4-day period, and the respective contributions of the wind and the surface temperature were evaluated. The classical momentum flux bulk parameterization was found to fail in low wind and unstable conditions. Finally, the sea surface was investigated using airborne and satellite radars and wave buoys. A wave model, operationally used, was found to get better results compared with radar and wave-buoy measurements, when initialized using an improved wind field, obtained by assimilating satellite and buoy wind data in a meteorological model. A detailed analysis of a 2-day period showed that the swell component, propagating from a far source area, is underestimated in the wave model. A data base has been created, containing all experimental measurements. It will allow us to pursue the interpretation of observations and to test model simulations in the ocean, at the surface and in the atmospheric boundary layer, and to investigate the ocean-atmosphere coupling at the local and mesoscales.     

Response of a Coupled Ocean�CAtmosphere Model to Greenland Ice Melting

We investigate the transient response of the global coupled ocean?Catmosphere system to enhanced freshwater forcing representative of melting of the Greenland ice sheets. A 50-year long simulation by a coupled atmosphere?Cocean general circulation model (CGCM) is compared with another of the same length in which Greenland melting is prescribed. To highlight the importance of coupled atmosphere?Cocean processes, the CGCM results are compared with those of two other experiments carried out with the oceanic general circulation model (OGCM). In one of these OGCM experiments, the prescribed surface fluxes of heat, momentum and freshwater correspond to the unperturbed simulation by the CGCM; in the other experiment, Greenland melting is added to the freshwater flux. The responses by the CGCM and OGCM to the Greenland melting have similar patterns in the Atlantic, albeit the former having five times larger amplitudes in sea surface height anomalies. The CGCM shows likewise stronger variability in all state variables in all ocean basins because the impact of Greenland melting is quickly communicated to all ocean basins via atmospheric bridges. We conclude that the response of the global climate to Greenland ice melting is highly dependent on coupled atmosphere?Cocean processes. These lead to reduced latent heat flux into the atmosphere and an associated increase in net freshwater flux into the ocean, especially in the subpolar North Atlantic. The combined result is a stronger response of the coupled system to Greenland ice sheet melting.     

Characteristics of Stable Flows over Southern Greenland

The main characteristic features of stable atmospheric flows over a large mountain plateau are summarised and then compared with mesoscale and synoptic scale numerical simulation, meteorological analysis, satellite imagery, and surface observations for the cases of flows over Southern Greenland for four wind directions. The detailed features are identified using the concepts and scaling of stably stratified flow over large mountains with variations in surface roughness, elevation, and heating. For westerly and easterly winds detached jets form at the southern tip, where coastal jets converge, which propagate large distances across the ocean. Near coasts katabatic winds can combine with barrier jets and wake flows generated by synoptic winds. Note how the approach flow rises/falls over southern Greenland for easterly/westerly winds, leading in both cases to more cloud on the western side. Some conclusions are drawn about the large-scale influences of these flows; detached jets in the atmosphere; air-sea interaction; formation of low pressure systems. For accurate simulations of these flows, mesoscale models are necessary with resolutions of order of 20 km or less.     

Relationship between thermally forced surface wind and sea surface temperature gradient

An important part of the influence of the oceans on the atmosphere is through direct radiation, sensible heat flux and release of latent heat of evaporation, whereby all of these processes are directly related to the surface temperature of the oceans. A main effect of the atmosphere on the oceans is through momentum exchange at the air-ocean interface, and this process is directly related to the surface wind stress. The sea surface temperature (SST) and the surface wind stress are the two important components in the air-ocean system. If SST is given, a thermally forced boundary layer atmospheric circulation can be simulated. On the other hand, if the surface wind stress is given, the wind-driven ocean waves and ocean currents can be computed.The relationship between SST and surface wind is a coupling of the atmosphere and the oceans. It changes a one-way effect (ocean mechanically driven by atmosphere, or atmosphere thermally forced by oceans) into two-way air-sea interactions. Through this coupling the SST distribution, being an output from an ocean model, leads to the thermally forced surface winds, which feeds back into the ocean model as an additional forcing.Based on Kuo's planetary boundary layer model a linear algebraic equation is established to link the SST gradient with the thermally forced surface wind. The surface wind blows across the isotherms from cold to warm region with some deflection angle to the right (left) in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Results from this study show that the atmospheric stratification reduces both the speed and the deflection angle of the thermally forced wind, however, the Coriolis' effect increases the wind speed in stable atmosphere (Ri>10^–4) and increases the deflection angle.     

Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to improve the ocean circulation from a GCM 20<Superscript>th</Superscript> century simulation

Global coupled climate models are generally capable of reproducing the observed trends in the globally averaged atmospheric temperature. However, the global models do not perform as well on regional scales. Here, we present results from a 20-year, high-resolution ocean model experiment for the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. The atmospheric forcing is taken from the final 20 years of a twentieth-century control run with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. The ocean model results from the regional ocean model are validated using observations of hydrography from repeat cruises in the Barents Sea. Validation is performed for average quantities and for probability distributions in space and time. The validation results reveal that, though the regional model is forced by a coupled global model that has a noticeable sea ice bias in the Barents Sea, the hydrography and its variability are reproduced with an encouraging quality. We attribute this improvement to the realistic transport of warm, salty waters into the Barents Sea in the regional model. These lateral fluxes in the ocean are severely underestimated by the global model. The added value with the regional model that we have documented here lends hope to advance the quality of oceanic climate change impact studies.     

Relative role of subinertial and superinertial modes in the coastal long wave response forced by the landfall of a tropical cyclone

A set of numerical experiments has been performed in order to analyze the long-wave response of the coastal ocean to a translating mesoscale atmospheric cyclone approaching the coastline at a normal angle. An idealized two-slope shelf topography is chosen. The model is forced by a radially symmetric atmospheric pressure perturbation with a corresponding gradient wind field. The cyclone's translation speed, radius, and the continental shelf width are considered as parameters whose impact on the long wave period, modal structure, and amplitude is studied. Subinertial continental shelf waves (CSW) dominate the response under typical forcing conditions and on the narrower shelves. They propagate in the downstream (in the sense of Kelvin wave propagation) direction. Superinertial edge wave modes have higher free surface amplitudes and faster phase speeds than the CSW modes. While potentially more dangerous, edge waves are not as common as subinertial shelf waves because their generation requires a wide, gently sloping shelf and a storm system translating at a relatively high (∼10 m s⁻¹ or faster) speed. A relatively smaller size of an atmospheric cyclone also favors edge wave generation. Edge waves with the highest amplitude (up to 60% of the forced storm surge) propagate upstream. They are produced by a storm system with an Eulerian time scale equal to the period of a zero-mode edge wave with the wavelength of the storm spatial scale. Large amplitude edge waves were generated during Hurricane Wilma's landfall (2005) on the West Florida shelf with particularly severe flooding occurring upstream of the landfall site.     

Sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscaling ratios and storm types in rainfall simulation

Accurate information of rainfall is needed for sustainable water management and more reliable flood forecasting. The advances in mesoscale numerical weather modelling and modern computing technologies make it possible to provide rainfall simulations and forecasts at increasingly higher resolutions in space and time. However, being one of the most difficult variables to be modelled, the quality of the rainfall products from the numerical weather model remains unsatisfactory for hydrological applications. In this study, the sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is investigated using different domain settings and various storm types to improve the model performance of rainfall simulation. Eight 24‐h storm events are selected from the Brue catchment, southwest England, with different spatial and temporal distributions of the rainfall intensity. Five domain configuration scenarios designed with gradually changing downscaling ratios are used to run the WRF model with the ECMWF 40‐year reanalysis data for the periods of the eight events. A two‐dimensional verification scheme is proposed to evaluate the amounts and distributions of simulated rainfall in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The verification scheme consists of both categorical and continuous indices for a first‐level assessment and a more quantitative evaluation of the simulated rainfall. The results reveal a general improvement of the model performance as we downscale from the outermost to the innermost domain. Moderate downscaling ratios of 1:7, 1:5 and 1:3 are found to perform better with the WRF model in giving more reasonable results than smaller ratios. For the sensitivity study on different storm types, the model shows the best performance in reproducing the storm events with spatial and temporal evenness of the observed rainfall, whereas the type of events with highly concentrated rainfall in space and time are found to be the trickiest case for WRF to handle. Finally, the efficiencies of several variability indices are verified in categorising the storm events on the basis of the two‐dimensional rainfall evenness, which could provide a more quantitative way for the event classification that facilitates further studies. It is important that similar studies with various storm events are carried out in other catchments with different geographic and climatic conditions, so that more general error patterns can be found and further improvements can be made to the rainfall products from mesoscale numerical weather models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ocean-atmosphere dynamics changes associated with prominent ocean surface turbulent heat fluxes trends during 1958–2013

Three prominent features of ocean surface turbulent heat fluxes (THF) trends during 1958–2013 are identified based on the Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) data set. The associated ocean-atmosphere dynamics changes are further investigated based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. First, the THF are enhanced over the mid-latitude expansions of the subtropical western boundary currents (WBCs). An intensified oceanic heat transport, forced by stronger near-surface zonal wind, is likely to be the cause of such THF tendency. Second, the THF are reduced over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, which is primarily caused by the decreasing near-surface wind speed and sea surface temperature (SST), associated with a local coupled ocean-atmosphere cooling mode. Finally, the THF are reduced over the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean, which is attributed to the decreasing air-sea humidity and temperature differences as a result of the convergence of near-surface air and the divergence of ocean currents (upwelling).     

Investigation of the impacts of vegetation distribution and evaporative cooling on synthetic urban daytime climate using a coupled LES—LSM model

Local flow properties and regional weather or climate are strongly affected by land‐atmosphere interactions of momentum and scalars within the daytime convective boundary layer (CBL). In this study, we investigate the impact of green space scale on the daytime atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over a synthetic urban domain using a recently developed large‐eddy simulation‐land surface model (LES–LSM) framework. With the use of realistic soundings as initial conditions, a series of numerical experiments over synthetic urban surfaces with varied scale of vegetated area is performed. Simulated micrometeorological properties, surface fluxes, basic CBL characteristics, and cloud distribution are analysed. The results show reference‐level air potential temperature and specific humidity as well as surface fluxes over green space are significantly affected by the scale of green space in the urban domain. The surface organization due to vegetated area scale also has impacts on horizontally averaged scalar and momentum profiles; however, the magnitude in this study is smaller than the results of a previous study using a set of offline surface fluxes as the lower boundary condition for LES. In addition, even though this study only performs a daytime diurnal cycle, the impact of green space scale on cloud distribution in simulations is significant. The cases with more organized green space yield lower‐elevated cumulus cloud and larger‐cloud cover fraction, which impacts the energy budget at the top of boundary layer and, in turn, could lead to additional surface cooling with respect to longer‐term weather and climate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improving NWP through radar rainfall-driven land surface parameters: A case study on convective precipitation forecasting

In this study we investigate the effect of forcing the land surface scheme of an atmospheric mesoscale model with radar rainfall data instead of the model-generated rainfall fields. The goal is to provide improved surface conditions for the atmospheric model in order to achieve accurate simulations of the mesoscale circulations that can significantly affect the timing, distribution and intensity of convective precipitation. The performance of the approach is evaluated in a set of numerical experiments on the basis of a 2-day-long mesoscale convective system that occurred over the US Great Plains in July 2004. The experimental design includes multiple runs covering a variety of forcing periods. Continuous data integration was initially used to investigate the sensitivity of the model’s performance in varying soil state conditions, while shorter time windows prior to the storm event were utilized to assess the effectiveness of the procedure for improving convective precipitation forecasting. Results indicate that continuous integration of radar rainfall data brings the simulated precipitation fields closer to the observed ones, as compared to the control simulation. The precipitation forecasts (up to 48 h) appear improved also in the cases of shorter integration periods (24 and 36 h), making this technique potentially useful for operational settings of weather forecasting systems. A physical interpretation of the results is provided on the basis of surface moisture and energy exchange.