综合气象观测运行监控系统

为了提高我国气象装备运行保障能力和观测数据质量,中国气象局气象探测中心从2006年起创建了综合气象观测运行监控系统,并依此逐步建立了监控业务。文中围绕气象装备保障业务关于台站、省级和国家级的三级用户需求,明确了以探测设备运行状态监视、技术保障信息管理、观测数据质量监视为主线的监控业务设计思想,并奠定了监控业务系统的技术框架,提出了＂两级布设、三级应用＂的分布结构,基于互联网和WebGIS技术,建立了一套实时气象观测网运行监控和分析系统,具备实时设备运行状态监控、装备保障信息管理、观测数据质量监视、基础信息管理、运行统计评估等功能。在此基础上,文中介绍了气象观测运行监控业务概况,通过监控系统实现了对全网设备运行状况的实时掌握,开展监控产品分析服务,定期评估装备运行效能和数据质量状况,使重要气象装备如天气雷达的可用性大幅提升,为提高气象装备运行效能发挥了重要作用。     

中国自动土壤水分观测网运行监控系统建设

运行监控系统是全国自动土壤水分观测网观测数据分析和观测设备维护保障的实时业务平台,系统建设是全国自动土壤水分观测网建设的重要组成部分。系统采用C/S与B/S相结合的方式设计,总体功能包括设备运行状态监控、探测数据质量监控、探测产品分析显示、维护维修管理、站网信息管理和综合分析评估等6个功能模块。从系统结构、系统实现的主要功能以及系统建设所采用的关键技术等方面全面介绍中国自动土壤水分观测网运行监控系统的建设情况。     

新一代天气雷达2009—2014年运行状态分析

综合气象观测系统运行监控平台(ASOM)是地面观测设备实时运行状态及探测数据的监控保障系统,文章基于ASOM中2009年12月1日至2014年11月30日的维护维修数据对新一代天气雷达运行指标进行评估,统计其业务可用性（Ao）、平均无故障工作时间（MTBF）、平均故障持续时间（Tfd）、故障次数（Nf）和故障分布情况,2014年,Ao和MTBF分别提高到99.06%和1465.08 h,Tfd和Nf分别降低至13.15 h和4.68次。此外文章对故障案例中的备件更换情况按照雷达分系统和不同型号进行统计分类,建立针对性的备件供应管理,以提高新一代天气雷达的维修能力,提升综合观测系统装备供应管理效能。     

ASOM平台新一代天气雷达故障规范填报

综合气象观测系统运行监控平台（ASOM）是气象技术装备保障的业务应用系统。系统实现了气象探测设备的运行状态监控、探测数据质量监控、维护维修信息管理、装备保障信息管理、运行监控综合评估、监控信息发布和站网信息管理等功能。利用ASOM系统中2008年7月至2014年7月的4000余条故障维修填报记录,围绕故障修复流程进行分析,探讨新一代天气雷达故障维修信息的规范填报并给出建议。文章旨在围绕雷达系统故障维修信息的规范填报,还原故障维修过程,改进故障诊断技术,达到提高台站雷达维修水平目的。     

奥运短时临近预报实时数据处理

详细分析了目前短时临近预报系统对自动气象站数据质量控制、探测数据更新频率、组网雷达时间同步观测与基数据实时传输、探测数据的实时传输技术、基于目录监控的数据监控与分发机制、基于开源的软件开发、数据格式等方面的需求.在此基础上,建立了北京奥运短时临近预报数据快速收集处理系统并已经投入业务运行,该系统实现了探测数据的实时传输、组网雷达时间同步观测和基数据实时传输、基于消息驱动的数据实时监控和分发、探测数据格式规范化等功能,基本满足北京2008年奥运短时临近预报系统的数据预处理业务需求.     

ASOM二次监控平台设计

通过研究ASOM系统在监控各类气象探测设备正常运行,及时掌握设备运行状况、收集整理气象探测保障相关信息,最终实现对气象探测设备的高效保障时存在的一些问题,例如自动气象站监控不及时、天气雷达等设备监控没有声光报警等,并寻找相应的解决办法,从而实现了ASOM系统的二次监控平台。实际运行监控业务工作表明,该二次监控系统平台有效解决了ASOM系统目前存在的这些问题,使得ASOM系统对气象探测设备运行监控更加方便、及时、可靠和准确。     

汕头新一代天气雷达值班平台的设计与实现

针对新一代天气雷达站的实际业务需求,以Microsoft Visual Basic.NET作为应用程序的集成开发语言,基于NET Framework 4.5.1平台,开发了新一代天气雷达值班平台,实现了雷达运行状态和资料传输状态的实时监控,对雷达系统故障和网络故障进行及时报警;同时提供雷达值班助手模块,对雷达站所涉及的大部分工作进行一个规范性整合。利用值班平台来辅助雷达站工作,将大量机械性的工作交给计算机处理,以达到减少人为失误,有效提高工作效率的目的。     

CC天气雷达数据流传输业务台站级监控报警系统的设计与实现

利用UDP组播通信、进程监控、文件监控、网络监控等技术,研发了CC天气雷达数据流传输业务台站级监控报警系统,较早、较好地实现了雷达扫描状态、数据流上行传输、标准格式基数据本地存储、基数据补传、软件运行和网络运行状态的实时监控和短信报警。实践表明,软件运行较稳定,能对数据流传输业务进行有效监控,短信报警准确及时,报警阈值从6min缩短到40s,提升了故障的发现和处理效率,提高了天气雷达业务可用性和数据传输质量,减轻了雷达台站业务人员的值守压力。     

雷达探测员辅助监控系统浅析

采用C#编程实现对新一代天气雷达探测资料传输的全程实时监控,即对雷达数据采集机与省局服务器的连接、雷达拼图产品的传输、雷达的状态文件均实时监控。在监控中发现传输过程的任意环节出错时,立即通过自动拨号以电话的方式通知值班员,并在雷达机桌面上弹出故障类型以帮助探测员迅速判断出故障类型并解决。     

综合气象观测系统业务运行综合评估技术研究

综合气象观测网运行监控系统是我国气象探测设备运行保障的实时业务系统.文章以装备技术保障工程理论为基础,按可靠性、维修性、保障性、业务性、经济性等多个范畴,从装备运行状态、装备性能参数、探测数据质量、通信传输、供应保障、维护维修等方面,提出了针对我国综合气象观测网中各类设备的运行、维护和保障等工作进行综合评估的技术方法,...     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.