The ocean's role in climate variability

Because of its vast volume and heat capacity, the ocean contains most of the memory of the earth's ocean - atmosphere coupled system. It has been suggested that the ocean may delay global warming by absorbing large amounts of heat, that it may cause ab- rupt climate change due to its disrupted thermohaline circulation, and that it may set the time-scales for various climate oscilla- tions. Although the slow pace and persistence of oceanic variations give hope to long-range prediction, there still exist large uncer- tainties in climate predictability. Presently available observations and models are generally inadequate for studying and predicting long-term climate changes. However, some short-term fluctuations such as ENSO have been well studied and shown to be highly predictable even with simplified models.     

大西洋热盐环流年代际变化机制研究Ⅲ.北大西洋海气要素对热盐环流年代际振荡的影响

基于该系列文章前文研究中构建的海气耦合气候模式和所揭示的北大西洋热盐环流年代际振荡机制,针对海气要素对该振荡机制的影响问题进行了重点的探讨.为细致准确的研究北大西洋海洋要素同北大西洋热盐环流年代际振荡的关系,有针对性的定义了副极地海区表层密度指数和北大西洋暖流强度指数并对模式结果进行了全面分析.分析结果表明副极地海区表...     

大西洋热盐环流年代际变化机制研究Ⅲ.北大西洋海气要素对热盐环流年代际振荡的影响

基于该系列文章前文研究中构建的海气耦合气候模式和所揭示的北大西洋热盐环流年代际振荡机制,针对海气要素对该振荡机制的影响问题进行了重点的探讨。为细致准确的研究北大西洋海洋要素同北大西洋热盐环流年代际振荡的关系,有针对性的定义了副极地海区表层密度指数和北大西洋暖流强度指数并对模式结果进行了全面分析。分析结果表明副极地海区表层密度变化领先大西洋径向翻转环流(MOC)变化7 a,北大西洋暖流的变化领先 MOC变化4 a,格陵兰－苏格兰海脊溢流水强度(包括丹麦海峡溢流水和法鲁海峡溢流水,是北大西洋深层水的重要来源)的变化领先 MOC的变化3 a;北大西洋大气要素变化对北大西洋热盐环流年代际振荡有非常重要的调制作用,当副极地流环和北大西洋暖流(NAC)达到最强的2 a之前,高纬度地区大气为气旋式环流异常,中纬度地区大气为反气旋式环流异常,海表热通量在大西洋副极地海区是负异常,这都有利于副极地流环和NAC的加强,更多高盐度的北大西洋水进入格陵兰-冰岛-挪威海(GIN)海域,由此可以导致GIN海域表层密度上升,使水体的层结稳定性减弱,有利于深层对流的发生,同时大气变化通过风应力旋度和海表热通量也直接影响GIN海域深层水的生成,进而导致格陵兰－苏格兰海脊溢流水的强度增加。     

洋际交换及其在全球大洋环流中的作用:MOM4p1积分1400年的结果

利用非Boussinesq近似下MOM4p1的全球大洋环流预后模式,采用真实地形,以静止状态为初始条件,进行了1 400a积分,以研究平衡状态下大洋环流的结构。模式由月平均气候态强迫场驱动,包括192×189个水平网格和压力坐标下的31个垂直层次。着重研究达到平衡状态后,各洋际通道处的质量、热量输运和补偿及其在全球大洋环流中的作用。根据动能演变特征表明,积分过程分为3个阶段:风海流的成长及准稳定状态;热盐环流的成长过程以及热盐环流的稳定状态;由静止状态冷启动达到热盐环流的稳定状态,积分过程必须在千年以上。模式结果再现了从白令海峡到格陵兰海的北冰洋贯穿流和印度尼西亚贯穿流,并用已有观测资料对它们进行对比。分析表明,海面的倾斜结构是形成太平洋-北冰洋-大西洋贯穿流和印尼贯穿流的主要动力机制。分析指出,尽管在北大西洋存在1.4×106 m3/s的南向体积输运,但其热量输运却是北向的并达到1015 W量级,其原因是北向的上层海流温度远高于北大西洋深层水向南的回流。文章分析了经向体积和热量输运对北大西洋深层水补偿来源及大西洋经向翻转环流的贡献。模拟所得洋际交换的量值可以由经向补偿予以合理解释,并得到以往实测与数模结果的支持。洋际通道处的体积和热量交换突出体现了其在大洋传送带系统中的枢纽作用。     

Sensitivity of the modelled thermohaline circulation to the parameterisation of mixing across the Greenland–Scotland ridge

The Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3 simulates a stable thermohaline circulation driven by deep water formation in the Norwegian and Labrador Seas without the need for flux adjustments. It has however been suggested that this result is the fortuitous consequence of the local use of the Roussenov convection scheme in this region, and that the model simulation may depend sensitively on this parameterisation. Here we investigate the sensitivity of the thermohaline circulation (THC) to the model’s treatment of the overflows from the Nordic Seas for both pre-industrial and increasing greenhouse gas forcings. We find that although the density structure in the Labrador Sea does depend upon the specifics of how the overflows are modelled, the global thermohaline circulation and climate responses are not sensitive to these details. This result gives credibility to previously published modelling studies on the response of the thermohaline circulation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, and implies that research may profitably be focussed on the large scale transports, where models are known to disagree.     

Freshwater forcing as a booster of thermohaline circulation

Making use of a simple two‐layer model, we analyze the impact of freshwater forcing on the thermohaline circulation. We consider the forward‐type circulation dominated by thermal forcing, implying that the freshwater forcing acts to reduce the density contrast associated with the equator‐to‐pole temperature contrast (prescribed in the model). The system is described by two variables: the depth of the upper layer ( H ) and the density contrast between the upper and lower layer (Δρ), which decreases with salinity contrast. The rate of poleward flow of light surface water and the diapycnal flow (i.e., upwelling) driven by widespread small‐scale mixing are both modeled in terms of H and Δρ. Steady states of thermohaline circulation are found when these two flows are equal. The representation of the diapycnal flow ( M_D ) is instrumental for the dynamics of the system. We present equally plausible examples of a physically based representation of M_D for which the thermohaline circulation either decreases or increases with density contrast. In the latter case, contrary to the traditional wisdom, the freshwater forcing amplifies the circulation and there exists a thermally dominated equilibrium for arbitrary intensity of freshwater forcing. Here, Stommel's famous feedback between circulation and salinity contrast is changed from a positive to a negative feedback. The interaction of such a freshwater boosted thermohaline circulation with the climate system is fundamentally different from what is commonly assumed, an issue which is briefly addressed.     

Validating and assessing the sensitivity of the climate model with an ocean general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Russian Academy of Sciences

A new version of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS), climate model (CM) has been developed using an ocean general circulation model instead of the statistical-dynamical ocean model applied in the previous version. The spatial resolution of the new ocean model is 3° in latitude and 5° in longitude, with 25 unevenly spaced vertical levels. In the previous version of the oceanic model, as in the atmospheric model, the horizontal resolution was 4.5° in latitude and 6° in longitude, with four vertical levels (the upper quasi-homogeneous layer, seasonal thermocline, abyssal ocean, and bottom friction layer). There is no correction for the heat and momentum fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean in the new version of the IAP RAS CM. Numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM have been performed under current initial and boundary conditions, as well as with an increasing concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The main simulated atmospheric and oceanic fields agree quite well with observational data. The new version’s equilibrium temperature sensitivity to atmospheric CO₂ doubling was found to be 2.9 K. This value lies in the mid-range of estimates (2–4.5 K) obtained from simulations with state-of-the-art models of different complexities.     

Recovery of thermohaline circulation under CO2 stabilization and overshoot scenarios

In this study we examine the behavior of the thermohaline circulation, as simulated by the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), for several centuries following CO₂ stabilization for the SRES B1 and A1B scenarios and for an “overshoot” scenario in which CO₂ levels temporarily reach the same level as in the A1B scenario before declining to an ultimate stabilization level that is identical to the B1 case. While we find no evidence for irreversible changes of the thermohaline circulation in the overshoot experiment, the interplay of the different timescales of the temperature response of the surface and interior ocean does lead to a number of differences in the long-term response of the ocean between it and the B1 stabilization scenario where the same GHG levels are approached by different paths. The stronger initial warming and its slow penetration into the deeper ocean, followed by a transient surface cooling in the overshoot scenario leads to lower static stability, deeper mixing, and a more rapid recovery of the thermohaline circulation than in the B1 stabilization scenario. While the overshoot scenario recovers surface conditions (e.g. SST, sea ice extent) very similar to the B1 scenario shortly after reaching the same GHG levels, the additional accumulation of heat in the interior ocean during the period of higher forcing causes the global mean ocean temperature and steric sea level to remain higher than in the B1 stabilization scenario for at least another several centuries.     

Formation of extreme surface turbulent heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere in the North Atlantic

The role of extreme surface turbulent fluxes in total oceanic heat loss in the North Atlantic is studied. The atmospheric circulation patterns enhancing ocean–atmosphere heat flux in regions with significant contributions of the extreme heat fluxes (up to 60% of the net heat loss) are analyzed. It is shown that extreme heat fluxes in the Gulf Stream and the Greenland and Labrador Seas occur in zones with maximal air pressure gradients, i.e., in cyclone–anticyclone interaction zones.     

温盐环流稳定性以及年代际变率的研究进展

对近期国内外有关温盐环流的模拟研究作了综合评述,着重介绍温盐环流的稳定性、多平衡态及其转化以及年代际变率问题的研究进展。     

Numerical simulation of the world ocean circulation and its climatic variability for 1948–2007 using the INMOM

The results of simulating global ocean circulation and its interannual variability in 1948–2007 using INM RAS ocean general circulation model INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model) are presented. One of the INMOM versions is also used for the Black Sea dynamics simulation. The CORE datasets were used to set realistic atmospheric forcing. Sea ice area decrease by 2007 was reproduced in the Arctic Ocean that is in good agreement with observations. The interdecadal climatic variability was revealed with significant decrease of Atlantic thermohaline circulation (ATHC) and meridional heat transport (MHT) in North Atlantic (NA) since the late 1990’s. MHT presents decrease of heat transport from NA to the atmosphere since the mid-1990’s. Therefore the negative feedback is revealed in the Earth climate system that leads to reducing of climate warming caused primarily by anthropogenic factor for the last decades. Long-term variability (60 years) of ATHC is revealed as well which influences NA thermal state with 10 year delay. The assumption is argued that this mechanism can make a contribution in the ATHC own long-term variability.     

Analysis on the annual variation characteristics of heat exchange on the atmosphere-sea interface over the tropical Pacific

The tropical ocean is the area where the interaction process between atmosphere and sea is most active.To analyze the sensible and latent heat flux (abridged as SHF and LHF hereafter) over the tropical ocean and their spatial and temporal variation as well as the relationship between them and other factors are all essential in understanding the thermo-dynamic interaction mecha nism between atmosphere and sea.These are also useful in the further study on the unusual oceanic and atmospheric circulation and on the climate modelling.By using EOF method,we have discussed the LFH and SFH over the tropical Pacific and the causality factors of the heat flux,the main purpose is to initialize some new approaches with climatic significance.     

On the thermodynamics of the oceanic general circulation: entropy increase rate of an open dissipative system and its surroundings

The rôle of thermodynamics in the oceanic general circulation is investigated. The ocean is regarded as an open dissipative system that exchanges heat and salt with the surrounding system. A new quantitative method is presented to express the rate of entropy increase for a large‐scale open system and its surroundings by the transports of heat and matter. This method is based on Clausius's definition of thermodynamic entropy, and is independent of explicit expressions of small‐scale dissipation processes. This method is applied to an oceanic general circulation model, and the entropy increase rate is calculated during the spin‐up period of the model. It is found that, in a steady‐state, the entropy increase rate of the ocean system is zero, whereas that of the surroundings shows positive values, for both heat and salt transports. The zero entropy increase rate of the ocean system represents the fact that the system is in a steady‐state, while the positive entropy increase rate in the surroundings is caused by irreversible transports of heat and salt through the steady‐state circulation. The calculated entropy increase rate in the surroundings is 1.9×10¹¹ W K⁻¹, and is primarily due to the heat transport. It is suggested that the existence of a steady‐state dissipative system on the Earth, from a living system to the oceanic circulation, has a certain contribution to the entropy increase in its nonequilibrium surroundings.     

世界大洋中绝热运动导致的纬向翻转环流和纬向热输送

Zonal overturning circulation(ZOC) and its associated zonal heat flux(ZHF) are important components of the oceanic circulation and climate system, although these conceptions have not received adequate attentions.Heaving induced by inter-annual and decadal wind stress perturbations can give rise to anomalous ZOC and ZHF.Based on a simple reduced gravity model, the anomalous ZOC and ZHF induced by idealized heaving modes in the world oceans are studied. For example, in a Pacific-like model basin intensified equatorial easterly on decadal time scales can lead to a negative ZOC with a non-negligible magnitude(–0.3×106 m3/s) and a considerable westward ZHF with an amplitude of –11.2 TW. Thus, anomalous ZOC and ZHF may consist of a major part of climate signals on decadal time scales and thus play an important role in the oceanic circulation and climate change.     

On the dynamics and effects of double-diffusively driven intrusions

Some of the characteristics of intrusive finestructure observed in oceanic fronts suggest that salt fingering is active in the intrusions. An extension of Stern's 1967 study of the stability of a thermohaline front to intrusive finestructure driven by salt fingers is presented to investigate this hypothesis. Intrusions are found to grow due to the salt finger induced density fluxes even in the presence of small scale momentum dissipation. The presence of this dissipation defines a fastest growing mode for the disturbance which has physical characteristics not unlike those observed in oceanic fronts. The model results do not agree well with the laboratory studies of intrusions. For many fronts, the model requires initial perturbations in the front which can support salt fingers. Linear internal waves are investigated to determine if they can provide the initial perturbation. It is shown that, away from the equator, the interaction between internal waves and intrusions is weak because of a mismatch of time scales. Finally, growing intrusions are shown to flux heat, salt and density across fronts. The senses of these fluxes are to run down the lateral gradients of many oceanic fronts.     

Hydrologic structure of waters in the north-western Tropical Atlantic

Analytical data based on hydrological observations (34th cruise of the R/VAkademik Vernadsky) are used to show that the basic element contributing to oceanic circulation is the well-developed North Equatorial countercurrent. The latter is considered as a frontal zone separating two structures of water mass. It has been demonstrated that in the salinity field—besides the meridional exchange of subtropical and Antarctic waters—the zonal advection of low-salinity waters also plays an essential role. The water masses have been specified, their parameters determined, and volumes calculated. We have found that the thermohaline indices in the cores, of tropical and west equatorial water masses have different salinity values.Translated by V. Puchkin.     

南海南部与外海间的体积和热、盐输运及其对印尼贯穿流的贡献

根据中国近海高分辨率 ( 1 / 6°)环流模式的模拟结果 ,计算了南沙邻近海域与外海之间的海水体积、热量和盐量输运及其对印度尼西亚贯穿流的贡献。研究海域为 0°— 1 4°N的整个南海南部海域。计算得出 ,穿过研究海域流向印度尼西亚海域 ,最终流向印度洋的年平均体积、热量和盐量输运分别为 5 .2Sv( 1Sv =1× 1 0 6m3·s- 1 )、0 .5 7PW和 1 84Gg·s- 1 ,大约占印度尼西亚贯穿流相应输运量的 1 / 4。这一结果表明南海是全球大传送带这一全球海洋最主要热盐环流系统的重要通道之一。从南海流向印度尼西亚海域的通道以卡里马塔海峡为最主要 ,以下依次为巴拉巴克海峡、民都洛海峡和马六甲海峡。大的南向通量主要发生在冬、秋季 ,春末夏初总的通量向北。计算还得出输入本海区的热输运量比输出少 0 .0 64PW ,由这一结果推得 ,通过海 -气界面由大气进入海洋的年平均净热通量约为 30W·m- 2 。     

Possible role of oceanic heat transport in early Eocene climate

Increased oceanic heat transport has often been cited as a means of maintaining warm high-latitude surface temperatures in many intervals of the geologic past, including the early Eocene. Although the excess amount of oceanic heat transport required by warm high latitude sea surface temperatures can be calculated empirically, determining how additional oceanic heat transport would take place has yet to be accomplished. That the mechanisms of enhanced poleward oceanic heat transport remain undefined in paleoclimate reconstructions is an important point that is often overlooked. Using early Eocene climate as an example, we consider various ways to produce enhanced poleward heat transport and latitudinal energy redistribution of the sign and magnitude required by interpreted early Eocene conditions. Our interpolation of early Eocene paleotemperature data indicate that an approximately 30% increase in poleward heat transport would be required to maintain Eocene high-latitude temperatures. This increased heat transport appears difficult to accomplish by any means of ocean circulation if we use present ocean circulation characteristics to evaluate early Eocene rates. Either oceanic processes were very different from those of the present to produce the early Eocene climate conditions or oceanic heat transport was not the primary cause of that climate. We believe that atmospheric processes, with contributions from other factors, such as clouds, were the most likely primary cause of early Eocene climate.     

海洋模式中Boussinesq近似误差讨论

根据全球增暖的特点,设计了一个理想的数值试验方案,用Boussinesq POP海洋模式和改进的非Boussinesq POP海洋模式定量讨论了Bousiinesq近似在海洋模式计算中的误差。结果发现,在只有热力驱动的热力环流背景下,由热膨胀引起的海平面上升在水平方向上是基本均匀的,在所给的初始边界条件下,这种由Boussinesq近似引起的最大海平面误差可以达到59％,在Boussinesq POP模式中,热源中心处的海面高度要远小于由非Boussinesq模式计算的海面高度,而其周围有虚假的海面高度下降;在只有加热引起的热盐环流过程中,当模式作了Boussinesq假设以后,计算的经向和纬向垂直环流都会产生虚假的加强,虽然这种误差只是在1％左右;在Bousiinesq近似假定下,热量经向通量在赤道上垂直剖面的积分误差比质量经向通量在赤道上垂直剖面的积分误差大一个量级;非Boussinesq模式计算的气压梯度所做功的垂向分布在3000m以下是有波动的,而Boussinesq模式计算的气压梯度所做功的垂向分布在3000m以下基本上是均匀的,它的误差在10％以上。