Impact of the geomagnetic field and solar radiation on climate change

Recent studies have shown that, in addition to the role of solar variability, past climate changes may have been connected with variations in the Earth??s magnetic field elements at various timescales. An analysis of variations in geomagnetic field elements, such as field intensity, reversals, and excursions, allowed us to establish a link between climate changes at various timescales over the last millennia. Of particular interest are sharp changes in the geomagnetic field intensity and short reversals of the magnetic poles (excursions). The beginning and termination of the examined geomagnetic excursions can be attributed to periods of climate change. In this study, we analyzed the possible link between short-term geomagnetic variability (jerks) and climate change, as well as the accelerated drift of the north magnetic pole and surface temperature variations. The results do not rule out the possibility that geomagnetic field variations which modulate the cosmic ray flux could have played a major role in climate change in addition to previously induced by solar radiation.     

地磁活动对气候要素影响的研究进展

地磁活动是太阳爆发现象引起地球近地空间磁场扰动的重要空间天气过程之一.地球磁场的变化具有多种时间尺度,其中从数十年到数世纪的长时间地磁场变化主要是由地核磁场引起的,而从数秒到数年的短时间地磁变化与太阳活动有关.近年来,越来越多的统计研究表明,地磁活动与太阳活动和地球气候变化之间存在着显著的相关性.地球磁场和地球大气系统的耦合现象驱动着人们探索地磁活动对地球天气和气候系统影响的研究.本文的目的就是综述国内外地磁变化对气候影响的研究进展,介绍我们最新的研究成果,探索地磁活动对气候要素的影响特征和可能机理过程,为深入研究地磁活动对地球天气和气候的影响提供基础和依据,以期对地磁活动和气候要素关系有进一步的认识.     

A case study of relationship between GPS PWV and solar variability during the declining phase of solar cycle 23

Water vapor plays an important role in the global climate system. A clear relationship between water vapor and solar activity can explain some physical mechanisms of how solar activity influences terrestrial weather/climate changes. To gain insight of this possible relationship, the atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV) as the terrestrial climate response was observed by ground-based GPS receivers over the Antarctic stations. The PWV changes analyzed for the period from 2003 to 2008 coincided with the declining phase of solar cycle 23 exhibited following the solar variability trend. Their relationship showed moderate to strong correlation with 0.45 < R ² < 0.93 (p < 0.01), on a monthly basis. This possible relationship suggests that when the solar-coupled geomagnetic activity is stronger, the Earth’s surface will be warmer, as indicated by electrical connection between ionosphere and troposphere.     

The PFISR IPY observations of ionospheric climate and weather

The recently commissioned Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR) began a continuous operation measurement program for the duration of the International Polar Year (IPY). The IPY began on 1 March 2007 and is an 18-month period of intense polar study. PFISR began its IPY campaign on 1 March 2007 and this paper describes the first 10 months of observations. The PFISR IPY science goals revolve around distinguishing between ionospheric climate and weather variability, and to determine the relative role of geomagnetic weather from the magnetosphere versus that driven from the atmosphere below. This latter goal may well be aided by the fact that the IPY period is at solar minimum, a time when major geomagnetic activity occurrence should be minimized. However, as nature would have it once the IPY observations began it was found that geomagnetic activity was a recurrent feature lasting the entire 10 months being discussed here. The PFISR IPY database will also be used as a long-term fiducial data set against which ionospheric models are to be compared. Hence, this paper provides a documentation of the contents of the database. Case studies as well as statistical studies of how the ionospheric climate and weather can be separated are presented. A particular emphasis is placed upon the F-region ion temperature observations. These appear to provide a very direct measure of geomagnetic energy input to the ionosphere–thermosphere system. Examples are shown in which 150 K F-region ion temperature increases are associated with very moderate geomagnetic disturbances in which the daily average 3-h Kp is only 2.5.     

Mechanism of solar-terrestrial relations and changes of atmospheric circulation

Summary As a result of investigating the relations between the variations of geomagnetic activity and meteorological factors [1, 2] a mechanism of solar-terrestrial relationships and a model of the changes of atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere are proposed; this provides an explanation of the causes of the fluctuation of the climate, of dry and cold periods and differing vegetation conditions in various years in dependence on the intensity of geomagnetic activity.     

Cosmic ray flux variations, modulated by the solar and earth’s magnetic fields, and climate changes. 1. Time interval from the present to 10–12 ka ago (the Holocene Epoch)

Direct and indirect data on variations in cosmic rays, solar activity, geomagnetic dipole moment, and climate from the present to 10–12ka ago (the Holocene Epoch), registered in different natural archives (tree rings, ice layers, etc.), have been analyzed. The concentration of cosmogenic isotopes, generated in the Earth’s atmosphere under the action of cosmic ray fluxes and coming into the Earth archives, makes it possible to obtain valuable information about variations in a number of natural processes. The cosmogenic isotopes ¹⁴C in tree rings and ¹⁰Be in ice layers, as well as cosmic rays, are modulated by solar activity and geomagnetic field variations, and time variations in these concentrations gives information about past solar and geomagnetic activities. Since the characteristics of natural reservoirs with cosmogenic ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be vary with climate changes, the concentrations of these isotopes also inform about climate changes in the past. A performed analysis indicates that cosmic ray flux variations are apparently the most effective natural factor of climate changes on a large time scale.     

Changes in geomagnetic activity and global temperature during the past 40 years

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of geomagnetic activity (used as a measure of solar wind parameters) on the variability of large-scale climate patterns and on changes in the global temperature. We show that positive statistically significant correlations between global temperature and the distribution of surface temperature over Eurasia, the East and Equatorial Pacific and over the North Atlantic for the period 1966?C2009 correspond to large-scale climate patterns defined by climate indices. We found very similar positive correlations between geomagnetic activity and the distribution of surface temperature in the mentioned regions. As an effect of geomagnetic storms, energetic particles penetrate from the magnetosphere into the region of the stratospheric polar vortex. The increase of temperature and pressure can be observed over northern Canada. The vortex shifts towards Europe, rotates counter-clockwise and the wind blows from the polar region over Greenland southwards. It diverts the warm flow proceeding northward over the Atlantic, eastward along the deep Icelandic low extending as far as the Barents Sea and takes part in warming Eurasia. The strengthened zonal flow from Siberia cools the western Pacific with the impact on the warming of the equatorial and eastern Pacific when also a distinct 1976?C78 climate shift occurred. Processes in the Atlantic and Pacific play a significant role and a time delay (wind forcing over the previous 1?C4 yr) appears to be the most important for the relocation of the oceanic gyres. Results showing statistically significant relations between time series for geomagnetic activity, for the sum of climate indices and for the global temperature help to verify findings concerning the chain of processes from the magnetosphere to the troposphere.     

Cosmic ray flux variations,modulated by the solar and terrestrial magnetic fields,and climate changes. Part 2: The time interval from ∼10000 to ∼100000 years ago

A joint analysis of paleodata on variations in cosmic ray fluxes, solar activity, geomagnetic field, and climate during the period from ～10000 to ～100000 years ago has been performed. Data on the time variations in the concentration of ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be cosmogenic isotopes, which are generated in the Earth’s atmosphere under the action of cosmic ray fluxes modulated by solar activity and geomagnetic field variations, were used to detect variations in solar activity and the geomagnetic dipole. Information about climate changes has been obtained mainly from variations in the concentration of stable isotopes in the natural archives. A performed analysis indicates that the variations in cosmic ray fluxes under the action of variations in the geomagnetic field and solar activity are apparently one of the most effective natural factors of long-term climate changeability on a large time scale.     

Evidence of geomagnetic storm effects in the lower atmosphere: A case study

Disturbances produced by geomagnetic storms in the higher regions of the Earth’s atmosphere, such as in the ionospheric F2 region and in the lower ionosphere, are relatively better known than those produced at lower altitudes, where the effects of geomagnetic storms have been little studied. During magnetically perturbed conditions, some changes in pressure and temperature at high latitudes have been observed, from the surface level to heights of around 30 km, but there are no morphological studies and/or patterns of behavior. Moreover, the physical mechanisms are still unknown and what exists is a matter of controversy. Thus, the aim of this paper is to contribute to the vertical profile of the effects of geomagnetic storms as observed in the lower sectors of the atmosphere. For that, we study the variations of two atmospheric parameters (temperature and wind speed) during an intense geomagnetic storm (minimum Dst = −300 nT), at heights between about 6 km and 20 km. The data used were obtained from weather balloon flights carried out at low, mid and mid-high latitudes in different longitudinal sectors of the northern hemisphere, which took place twice per day: 00:00 and 12:00 UT. Small, but statistically significant changes in temperature and in zonal component of the neutral winds are observed at mid-high latitudes, which can be linked to short-term geomagnetic forcing. However, the results show different atmospheric response to the geomagnetic storm in the different longitudinal sectors at tropospheric and stratospheric levels, which suggests a regional character of the geomagnetic storms effects at tropospheric levels.     

Changes in cosmic ray cut-off rigidities due to secular variations of the geomagnetic field

An analytical expression is derived for the cutoff rigidity of cosmic rays arriving at a point in an arbitrary direction, when the main geomagnetic field is approximated by that of an eccentric dipole. This expression is used to determine changes in geomagnetic cutoffs due to secular variation of the geomagnetic field since 1835. Effects of westward drift of the quadrupole field and decrease in the effective dipole moment are seen in the isorigidity contours. On account of the immense computer time required to determine the cutoff rigidities more accurately using the particle trajectory tracing technique, the present formulation may be useful in estimating the transmission factor of the geomagnetic field in cosmic ray studies, modulation of cosmogenic isotope production by geomagnetic secular variation, and the contribution of geomagnetic field variation to long term changes in climate through cosmic ray related modulation of the current flow in the global electric circuit.     

Variations in the cosmic ray fluxes,modulated by the solar and terrestrial magnetic fields,and climate changes. Part 3: A time interval of 1.5 Myr,including the pleistocene

The most reliable data on a change in the intensity of cosmic rays and geomagnetic field on large time scales have been analyzed, and the relations between changes in these processes and climate during the last 1.5 Myr have been studied. An analysis indicated that the climate of the Earth is affected by changes in the Earth’s orbit parameters and geomagnetic dipole values; however, the climate responds to these changes with a delay of 10 kyr and immediately, respectively. In this case about two thirds of the effect of eccentricity on ¹⁸O is implemented via an intermediate chain: virtual axial dipole moment, changes in which can be related to changes in eccentricity. Thus, an analysis of the accumulated data on the processes, proceeding in the Earth’s atmosphere during the interaction with cosmic rays on the scales of several years to several hundreds of thousand years, indicates that the cosmophysical factor of influence on climate cannot be rejected. To make the conclusion more convincing, it is necessary to collect data for the studied time interval in a much wider region, to more accurately date samples, and to study the response of the climatic system to the external influence.     

如何提高天气预报和气候预测的技巧？

从理论上探讨如何提高天气预报和气候预测的技巧.气候包括以小时为基本单位的昼夜循环、以日为基本单位的年(季节)循环、年代际循环和世纪循环等时间尺度的变化.这些气候变化存在确定的外强迫,是可以被认识和预报的.相对气候昼夜循环和年(季节)循环的偏差是天气尺度扰动.天气尺度的瞬变大气扰动可引发极端天气事件.有技巧的天气预报正是要通过天气尺度大气扰动信号,提前几天甚至十几天,预报出极端天气事件的发生.相对气候年代际和世纪循环的偏差是气候异常,有技巧的气候预测正是要预报出这种异常.距平天气图会大大提高短期和中期—延伸期天气预报的技巧,距平数值预报模式的研制也会加快提高中期—延伸期天气预报和气候预测的技巧.     

Are there connections between the Earth's magnetic field and climate?

Understanding climate change is an active topic of research. Much of the observed increase in global surface temperature over the past 150 years occurred prior to the 1940s and after the 1980s. The main causes invoked are solar variability, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas content or sulfur due to natural or anthropogenic action, or internal variability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system. Magnetism has seldom been invoked, and evidence for connections between climate and magnetic field variations have received little attention. We review evidence for correlations which could suggest such (causal or non-causal) connections at various time scales (recent secular variation ∼ 10–100 yr, historical and archeomagnetic change ∼ 100–5000 yr, and excursions and reversals ∼ 10³–10⁶ yr), and attempt to suggest mechanisms. Evidence for correlations, which invoke Milankovic forcing in the core, either directly or through changes in ice distribution and moments of inertia of the Earth, is still tenuous. Correlation between decadal changes in amplitude of geomagnetic variations of external origin, solar irradiance and global temperature is stronger. It suggests that solar irradiance could have been a major forcing function of climate until the mid-1980s, when “anomalous” warming becomes apparent. The most intriguing feature may be the recently proposed archeomagnetic jerks, i.e. fairly abrupt (∼ 100 yr long) geomagnetic field variations found at irregular intervals over the past few millennia, using the archeological record from Europe to the Middle East. These seem to correlate with significant climatic events in the eastern North Atlantic region. A proposed mechanism involves variations in the geometry of the geomagnetic field (f.i. tilt of the dipole to lower latitudes), resulting in enhanced cosmic-ray induced nucleation of clouds. No forcing factor, be it changes in CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere or changes in cosmic ray flux modulated by solar activity and geomagnetism, or possibly other factors, can at present be neglected or shown to be the overwhelming single driver of climate change in past centuries. Intensive data acquisition is required to further probe indications that the Earth's and Sun's magnetic fields may have significant bearing on climate change at certain time scales.     

Geomagnetic activity and the North Atlantic Oscillation

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the prominent pattern of winter climate variability that has a strong effect on weather in the North Atlantic region and the adjacent continents. At present, uncertainty prevails as to the mechanisms controlling the variability of the NAO. It is also difficult to explain why the positive phase of the NAO has prevailed over the past 37 years (1972–2008). We found high positive correlation coefficients between geomagnetic activity (used as a measure of solar wind intensity) and the NAO indices that equal 0.76 for 1962–1994 and 0.63 for 1961–2011. Positive correlations of the distribution of surface air temperature with the NAO and similarly with geomagnetic activity occur in the Northern Hemisphere. These results encourage our search for possible causes controlling the NAO. We have found that at times of high geomagnetic activity the NAO index is positive and magnetic reconnection may enable the solar wind to initiate downward winds in the magnetosphere. Wind anomalies originate at the edge of the stratospheric polar vortex and propagate downward through the troposphere taking part in the intensification of the vortex and of the westerlies. Stronger northerly winds over Greenland carry cold air southward and, together with the enhanced westerlies, advect the warm air from the Atlantic along the deep Icelandic low into Eurasia increasing temperatures there. On the other hand, at times of low geomagnetic activity, the NAO index is negative and the stratospheric polar vortex is weak. Warm air from the subtropics is carried into the Arctic and a rapid amplification of planetary waves propagating upward may cause displacement or even splitting of the weak vortex and sudden stratospheric warming. During this negative NAO phase the weakened westerlies allow more cold air to build up over North America and Eurasia.     

The role of solar activity in observed climate changes in the 20th century

The possible contribution of solar and geomagnetic activity to changes in the characteristics of the main components of the climatic system—the ocean and the atmosphere—is considered and discussed. The mechanisms and models of the solar activity impact on thermobaric and climatic characteristics of the troposphere are presented. Based on a complex analysis of hydrometeorological data, it has been shown that changes in the temperature of the troposphere and the World Ocean reflect a response both to individual helio-geophysical perturbations and to long-term changes (1854–2015) of solar and geomagnetic activity. It is established that the climatic response to the influence of solar and geomagnetic activity is characterized by considerable spatio-temporal heterogeneity, is of a regional nature, and depends on the general circulation of the atmosphere. The largest contribution of solar activity to the global climate changes was observed in the period 1910–1943.     

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the flow regime of the Han River basin using indicators of hydrologic alteration

Most natural disasters are caused by water‐/climate‐related hazards, such as floods, droughts, typhoons, and landslides. In the last few years, great attention has been paid to climate change, and especially the impact of climate change on water resources and the natural disasters that have been an important issue in many countries. As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall, the number of water‐related disasters is expected to rise. In this regard, this study intends to analyse the changes in extreme weather events and the associated flow regime in both the past and the future. Given trend analysis, spatially coherent and statistically significant changes in the extreme events of temperature and rainfall were identified. A weather generator based on the non‐stationary Markov chain model was applied to produce a daily climate change scenario for the Han River basin for a period of 2001–2090. The weather generator mainly utilizes the climate change SRES A2 scenario driven by input from the regional climate model. Following this, the SLURP model, which is a semi‐distributed hydrological model, was applied to produce a long‐term daily runoff ensemble series. Finally, the indicator of hydrologic alteration was applied to carry out a quantitative analysis and assessment of the impact of climate change on runoff, the river flow regime, and the aquatic ecosystem. It was found that the runoff is expected to decrease in May and July, while no significant changes occur in June. In comparison with historical evidence, the runoff is expected to increase from August to April. A remarkable increase, which is about 40%, in runoff was identified in September. The amount of the minimum discharge over various durations tended to increase when compared to the present hydrological condition. A detailed comparison for discharge and its associated characteristics was discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An inspection of the long-term behaviour of the range of the daily geomagnetic field variation from comprehensive modelling

This paper attempts to reveal whether long-term trends in the ionosphere are reflected in the amplitude range of the geomagnetic daily variation recorded at ground level. The smooth and regular variation observed in the magnetograms on magnetically quiet days is induced by the ionospheric currents flowing in the dynamo region. So it is likely that trends in the conductivity or in the dynamics of this region could produce changes in the current densities, and consequently in the range of the geomagnetic variation. The crucial aspect is how to separate the changes produced by the geomagnetic activity itself, or by secular changes of the Earth's magnetic field, from the part of the variation produced by factors affecting trends in the ionosphere, which could have an anthropogenic origin. To investigate this, we synthesized for several geomagnetic observatories the daily ranges of the geomagnetic field components with a comprehensive model of the quiet-time, near-Earth magnetic field, and finally we removed the synthetic values from the observed ranges at those observatories. This comprehensive model accounts for contributions from Earth's core, lithosphere, ionosphere, magnetosphere and coupling currents, and, additionally, accounts for influences of main field and solar activity variations on the ionosphere. Therefore, any trend remaining in the residuals, assuming that all the contributions mentioned above are properly described and thus removed by the comprehensive model, should reflect the influence of other sources. Results, based on series of magnetic data from observatories worldwide distributed, are presented. Trends in the X and Z components are misleading, since the current system changes in form as well as in intensity, producing changes of the focus latitude in the course of a solar cycle and from one cycle to another. Some differences exist between the long-term trends in the Y component between the real and modelled ranges, suggesting that other non-direct solar causes to the amplitude changes of the solar quiet geomagnetic variation should not be ruled out. Nevertheless, the results also reflect some short-comings in the way that the comprehensive modelling accounts for the influence of the solar activity on the range of the daily geomagnetic variation.     

Manifestation of the Gothenburg geomagnetic field excursion in the Barents Sea bottom sediments

An analysis of the paleomagnetic characteristics of the bottom sediments taken in 2000 in the northern Barents Sea for the first time revealed the Gothenburg geomagnetic field excursion (13 000–12 000 years ago) at the time boundary of the transition from the glacial period to the recent warm epoch (the Holocene). The obtained data confirm the excursion complex structure: the presence of two successive time intervals of variations in the geomagnetic field inclination. An increase in the magnetic susceptibility and natural remanent magnetization of the samples at the above boundary and about 15 000 years ago indicates that the magnetic parameters of the sediments respond to climate changes in the environment in this time interval.     

Variable Solar Forcing and Climate Changes

Numerous studies of interrelations between solar activity and global climate changes report contradictory conclusions. The topic as such is too complex, and manifestations of the studied relationship appear to differ in time and space, and sometimes are even of the opposite sense, In this study the data on air temperature and precipitation totals from Hurbanovo, one of the oldest meteorological observatories in Europe, are used to study their evolution within the interval 1871–1995, covering solar cycles 12–22, The variability of the meteorological elements mentioned is compared with that of the sunspot number and aa index of geomagnetic activity. The sensitivity of climate changes to variable solar forcing is presented as a comparison of extreme (maximum/minimum) activity conditions. Harmonic components with periods close to the length of the solar secular and solar magnetic cycles were found in climate evolution profiles.     

2012年江苏扬州M 4.9地震前地磁垂直分量日变双低点异常

2012年6月13日和7月10日华东地区部分地磁台垂直分量日变形态出现双低点异常,首次异常出现后37天,于7月20日发生江苏扬州M 4.9地震,震中位于低点位移分界线附近。分析认为,在强震前由于应力变化,引起孕震体环境中介质电导率等电磁性质发生改变,区域地磁场垂直分量日变曲线出现相位和幅度变化,说明地磁垂直分量日变双低点异常与地震的孕育和发生相关。