Modeling mineral dust emissions from Chinese and Mongolian deserts

The present study investigates the frequency and intensity of mineral dust emissions over the deserts of eastern Asia from 1996 to 2001. Mineral dust emissions are simulated using a physical dust emission scheme over a region extending from 35.5°N to 47°N and from 73°E to 125°E. The input parameters required by the dust emission model are (1) surface features data including aerodynamic roughness length, soil dry size distribution and texture; and (2) meteorological surface data, mainly wind speed, soil moisture and snow cover. The way by which these surface features and meteorological data can be assessed is described and discussed. The influence of soil moisture and snow cover is taken into account and their effects on simulated dust emission are quantified.The simulations reproduce on a daily basis the location and intensity of the severe events of April 1998 and spring 2001 as recorded by the meteorological stations and/or described in various studies. Based on 6 yr of simulations, the main dust source regions are identified and their relative contributions to the total dust emissions are quantified.The seasonal cycle of the dust storms frequency is well reproduced with a maximum in spring. The simulations suggest that it is mainly controlled by the emissions occurring in the Taklimakan desert in latter spring and in summer, and by those occurring in the northern deserts of China in winter. The Taklimakan desert appears to be the most frequent and steady source of dust emissions during the studied period. On the other hand, in the Gobi desert, only a few dust emission events are simulated, but the dust amount emitted during each event is generally very large. In the northern deserts of China, dust emissions are frequent and their intensity is variable.These results show an important annual and inter-annual variability of the emitted dust (between 100 Mt yr^− 1 and 460 Mt yr^− 1), mainly controlled by the occurrence of severe events in the Gobi desert and in the northern deserts of China.     

Element composition of dust from a shallow Dunde ice core, Northern China

The Dunde ice cap (38°06'N, 96°24'E, with a summit of 5325 m) is situated at the centre of the northern Chinese deserts and receives dust from these regions. Here, we present the trace and rare earth element (REE) compositions of dust extracted from a shallow ice core from the Dunde ice cap, which provide a framework to trace the source of Dunde dust. Trace and REE parameters of Dunde dust show characteristics of a typical eolian deposit, with an average La/Th ratio of 2.6, a Th/U ratio of 3.7, and a strong negative Eu anomaly (0.61). The dirty layers in the ice core section have the same element characteristics as in the clear layers, indicating that the dust in Dunde is well-mixed and has a stable composition. Trace element and REE ratio plots show that Dunde dust has a similar composition to the finer fraction materials in the Taklimakan desert, suggesting that the Tarim Basin might be an important source for Dunde dust under the present circulation, but not favoring a material contribution from Badain Jaran. Our results reveal distinct differences in composition between Dunde dust and Chinese loess materials, which suggests that they have different sources.     

Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2 °C global warming

Climatic changes over the Mediterranean basin in 2031–2060, when a 2 °C global warming is most likely to occur, are investigated with the HadCM3 global circulation model and their impacts on human activities and natural ecosystem are assessed. Precipitation and surface temperature changes are examined through mean and extreme values analysis, under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. Confidence in results is obtained via bootstrapping. Over the land areas, the warming is larger than the global average. The rate of warming is found to be around 2 °C in spring and winter, while it reaches 4 °C in summer. An additional month of summer days is expected, along with 2–4 weeks of tropical nights. Increase in heatwave days and decrease in frost nights are expected to be a month inland. In the northern part of the basin the widespread drop in summer rainfall is partially compensated by a winter precipitation increase. One to 3 weeks of additional dry days lead to a dry season lengthened by a week and shifted toward spring in the south of France and inland Algeria, and autumn elsewhere. In central Mediterranean droughts are extended by a month, starting a week earlier and ending 3 weeks later. The impacts of these climatic changes on human activities such as agriculture, energy, tourism and natural ecosystems (forest fires) are also assessed. Regarding agriculture, crops whose growing cycle occurs mostly in autumn and winter show no changes or even an increase in yield. In contrast, summer crops show a remarkable decrease of yield. This different pattern is attributed to a lengthier drought period during summer and to an increased rainfall in winter and autumn. Regarding forest fire risk, an additional month of risk is expected over a great part of the basin. Energy demand levels are expected to fall significantly during a warmer winter period inland, whereas they seem to substantially increase nearly everywhere during summer. Extremely high summer temperatures in the Mediterranean, coupled with improved climate conditions in northern Europe, may lead to a gradual decrease in summer tourism in the Mediterranean, but an increase in spring and autumn.     

A numerical study of the contributions of dust source regions to the global dust budget

Contributions of the nine potential dust source regions (North and South Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, Central Asia, eastern and western China, North and South America, and Australia) to the global dust budget are investigated with a global dust transport model. A six-year simulation (1990 to 1995) indicates that the greatest contributor to the global dust budget is found to be North Africa (the Sahara Desert), which accounts for 58% of the total global dust emission and 62% of the total global dust load in the atmosphere. Australian dust dominates the southern hemisphere. The dust emission and atmospheric dust load originating from East Asia (eastern and western China) are estimated to be 214 Tg yr^− 1 and 1.1 Tg, respectively, which are 11% and 6% of the total global dust emission and dust load. Dust from East Asia dominates the atmospheric load over China and Mongolia (about 70%), Korea (60%), Japan (50%), and the North Pacific Ocean (40%). The contribution of dust originating from regions other than East Asia to the dust load over these East Asian countries and the North Pacific Ocean cannot be ignored. The simulated total dust deposition flux on Greenland suggests a possible overestimation of the Saharan dust and an underestimation of the East Asian dust in the Arctic region, which may be a common problem with global dust transport models. Possible reasons for the underestimation of the East Asian dust are discussed.     

Validation of a multidecadal RCM hindcast over East Asia

The precipitation and low-level air temperature in East Asia from a regional climate model (RCM) hindcast for the 22-year period 1979–2000 is evaluated against observational data in preparation for the model use in regional climate change research. Emphasis of the evaluation is placed on the RCM capability in capturing the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation and low-level temperature, especially in conjunction with important climatological events such as, ENSO and East Asian monsoon, at three spatial scales of continental, subcontinental, and river basins.Spatial anomaly correlation time series of geopotential height and temperature show that the simulated upper-air fields remain consistent with the driving large-scale fields, NCEP Reanalysis 2 (R2), throughout the period. The simulated seasonal shifts in 850 hPa winds also agree well with R2 over eastern China and the western Pacific Ocean although the magnitudes of the shifts are overestimated, especially over the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau and in northern Manchuria. The simulated precipitation climatology agrees reasonably with that from two analysis datasets based on station- and remote-sensing data. Outstanding characteristics of precipitation including the location of the main rainband, climatological means, and the spatiotemporal variability in association with East Asian Monsoon, ENSO, and extreme events, are well represented in the hindcast. The most notable bias in the simulated precipitation is an overestimation of winter rainfall in southwestern coast of China, near the border with Vietnam. The simulation overestimates the interannual variability of seasonal precipitation especially in southern China, however, the corresponding coefficients of variation agree reasonably with observations except in very dry regions. This suggests that climate sensitivity of scaled precipitation can be useful for projecting climate change signals. The simulated low-level temperature climatology agrees reasonably with observational data as well. The most noticeable biases in the simulated low-level temperature are the warm (cold) biases in southern Siberia (northeastern China) during winter (summer) and the systematic underestimation of low-level temperature in the Tibetan Plateau for all seasons. The daily maximum temperature is underestimated for all seasons by 2−3 K with the largest biases in spring and fall except in the northwestern Mongolia region where it has been overestimated during winter. The daily minimum temperature biases ranges from 0.3 K in spring to 2 K in winter, and are much smaller than those in daily maximum temperature. The evaluation of the multidecadal hindcast shows that model errors mostly confined in the region near the lateral boundaries of the model domain with only minor biases in eastern China. This allows us to be cautiously optimistic about the RCM usefulness for studies of precipitation and low-level temperature changes in East Asia induced by increased emissions of greenhouse gases.     

Simulations of water resource environmental changes in China during the last 20 000 years by a regional climate model

We utilize a regional climate model with detailed land surface processes (RegCM2) to simulate East Asian monsoon climates at 0 ka, 6 ka and 21 ka BP, and evaluate the changes in hydrology process, including vapor transportation, precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff in the eastern and western China during these periods. Results indicate that the Tibetan Plateau climate presents a wet–cold status during the LGM while it exhibits a wet–warm climate at 6 ka BP. The LGM wetter climate over the Tibetan Plateau mainly results from the increased vapor inflow through its south boundary, while the increase in the vapor import over the Tibetan Plateau at 6 ka BP mostly sources from its west boundary. The increase in the LGM runoff over the Tibetan Plateau is mainly caused by the decrease in evapotranspiration, while the increase in runoff at the 6 ka BP mainly by the enhanced precipitation. Eastern China (including southern China) presents a dry status during the LGM, which precipitation and runoff decreases significantly due largely to weakened Asian summer monsoon that results in the decreased vapor inflow through the south boundary of eastern China. The variation pattern in the hydrological cycle in eastern China is contrary to that in western China during the LGM. The increase in precipitation and runoff at 6 ka BP in eastern China is tightly related to the strong Asian summer monsoon that leads to increased vapor import through the south boundary. Long term decrease trend in precipitation and runoff in northern China since the last 20 000 years may be attributed to the steady increase in vapor export through the east boundary as a result of the changes of East Asian monsoon and the adjustments of local atmospheric circulations in this area.     

An integrated dust storm prediction system suitable for east Asia and its simulation results

An integrated dust storm modeling system is developed for the prediction of dust storms. The system couples a wind erosion scheme, a dust transportation model and the Penn State/UCAR modeling system (MM5) with a geographic information database. The system can be used for the prediction of dust emission rate and dust concentration associated with individual dust storm events. Two severe dust storm events occurred in spring 2002, one on the 19th–22nd of March and the other on the 6th–9th of April. The integrated modeling system is used to simulate the two events. The numerical results are compared with surface weather records and satellite images and good agreement is found between the model results and observation in dust concentration distribution and evolutions. The Gobi Desert in southern Mongolia and the Badain Jaran Desert, Tengger Desert and Hunshandake sandy land in Inner Mongolia (China) are identified to be the dust sources for the two events. The dominant modes of dust particles over western Inner Mongolia and Mongolia are from 2 to 11 μm in size, and 2 to 22 μm over Beijing and its surrounding area. The emission of particles in the 2–11 μm size range is found to be most important for Northeast Asian dust storms.     

Contributions of sandy lands and stony deserts to long-distance dust emission in China and Mongolia during 2000–2006

More than 400 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images of dust storm events were collected and analyzed, and individual events were tracked back to their origins. Dust tracks were determined from color composite images, brightness temperature difference (BTD) and the NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model. The results showed that five regions (sandy lands in central Inner Mongolia and the adjacent area of Mongolia; the Gobi Desert in Xinjiang and Gansu provinces, western Inner Mongolia, and the adjacent southwestern area of Mongolia; the Gobi Desert in southern Mongolia and the adjoining area of northern Inner Mongolia; sandy lands and deserts around the middle reaches of the Yellow River; and the area rimming the Taklimakan Desert) were the main contributors to long-lived mineral dusts in northern China and Mongolia. Of these dust production areas, sandy lands and stony deserts, rather than the sandy deserts of Inner Mongolia and Mongolia, were found to be the dominant dust sources, accounting for more than 75% of regional dust emission events. Dust events in the Taklimakan Desert were often local phenomena, although they could also be transported eastward if they were uplifted high enough to escape the enclosing topographic highs. Dust sources in northwestern China are mainly alluvial fans and dry lake and river beds. Success in identifying the sources and trajectories of Asian dust storms would guide future ground-based research and steppe degradation countermeasures and help reduce the uncertainties in modern modeling of Asian dust.     

Reconstruction of Mediterranean sea level fields for the period 1945–2000

The distribution of sea level in the Mediterranean Sea is recovered for the period 1945–2000 by using a reduced space optimal interpolation analysis. The method involves estimating empirical orthogonal functions from satellite altimeter data spanning the period 1993–2005 that are then combined with tide gauge data to recover sea level fields over the period 1945–2000. The reconstruction technique is discussed and its robustness is checked through different tests. For the altimetric period (1993–2000) the prediction skill is quantified over the whole domain by comparing the reconstructed fields with satellite altimeter observations. For past times the skill can only be tested locally, by validating the reconstruction against independent tide gauge records. The reconstructed distribution of sea level trends for the period 1945–2000 shows a positive peak in the Ionian Sea (up to 1.5 mm yr^− 1) and a negative peak of − 0.5 mm yr^− 1 in a small area to the south-east of Crete. Positive trends are found nearly everywhere, being larger in the western Mediterranean (between 0.5 and 1 mm yr^− 1) than in the eastern Mediterranean (between 0 and 0.5 mm yr^− 1). The estimated rate of mean sea level rise for the period 1945–2000 is 0.7 ± 0.2 mm yr^− 1, i.e. about a half of the rate estimated for global mean sea level. These overall results do not appear to be very sensitive to the distribution of tide gauges. The poorest results are obtained in open-sea regions with intense mesoscale variability not correlated with any tide gauge station, such as the Algerian Basin.     

Clay mineralogy of a red clay–loess sequence from Lingtai, the Chinese Loess Plateau

The Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) comprises an extensive record of eolian deposition that contains important information about climate change. The objective of this study is to investigate if mineralogy can provide more insight into the long-term evolution of the East Asian monsoon. Comparisons between mineralogy and other paleoclimatic records (grain size and magnetic susceptibility) from the CLP have been made to evaluate the efficacy of mineralogy as a paleoclimatic tool.Here we present data from a mineralogical study of a red clay–loess sequence at Lingtai, central Chinese Loess Plateau. Changes related to source area(s), transport processes and weathering regime over time are recorded in mineral variation.Higher average concentrations of kaolinite, chlorite and quartz in the red clay, together with abrupt changes in relative mineral abundances across the red clay–loess boundary suggest a change of source area at 2.6 Ma. From 2.6 Ma to about 1.7 Ma the summer monsoon influence increases, destroying chlorite and contributing fine illite particles to the sediment. At around 1.7 Ma the mineralogy becomes relatively constant, suggesting that the monsoon was fairly stable during this period. At 0.7–0.5 Ma an increase of both summer monsoon and winter monsoon activity is inferred from illite, kaolinite, chlorite and plagioclase concentrations. Over the last 0.5 Ma mineralogy suggests an aridification of source area(s) as chlorite and plagioclase concentrations increase where illite concentration decreases. The last major change occurred around 0.07 Ma and indicates reducing summer monsoon influence as chlorite and quartz concentrations increase and illite concentration, as well as the < 2 μm size fraction, decreases. The mineralogical trends and differences between loess and paleosols units suggest different source areas in the last 0.5 Ma.     

Teleconnections between Andean and New Zealand glaciers

Retreat and advance of glaciers in the Southern Alps of New Zealand have occurred over two distinct 20-yr climate periods (1954–1974) and (1974–1994). Changes in tropical and southern Andean glaciers are compared over these same periods. Behaviour of glaciers in the tropical Andes are out of phase with the Southern Alps glaciers, but some glaciers in Patagonia appear to be in phase. Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation using 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies and sea surface temperature patterns are examined for these periods. Glacier response on inter-decadal timescales is linked with distinctive shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns around the Southern Hemisphere. Retreat (advance) of glaciers in the Southern Alps and southern Andean glacier and advance (retreat) of glaciers in the tropical Andes are all associated with weaker (stronger) westerlies, blocking events in the South-east Pacific, negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies over Southern Africa and higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. These glacier changes are also linked with the negative (positive) phase of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation, a higher frequency of La Niña (El Niño) events, and warm (cool) sea surface temperatures in the New Zealand region and cool (warm) sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern region of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru.     

Rain infiltration and crust formation in the extreme arid zone of the Atacama Desert, Chile

A key question in understanding life on Mars under dry(ing) conditions is how arid soils respond to small levels of liquid water. We have conducted a series of simulated rain experiments in the hyperarid core region of the Atacama Desert. Rain amounts from 0.24 to 3.55 mm were applied in the early evening to the soil. We conclude that rain events of less than 1 mm do not saturate the surface, and the soil humidity at the surface remains below 100%. Rain events of 2 mm or more generate free water in the pore space of the soil surface, which may be necessary to support biological activity in the soil. The crust on the surface of the soil is a strong barrier to the diffusion of subsurface moisture and subsequent evaporation. Our results show that once the relative humidity in hyperarid soils begins to fall below 100% the rate of decrease is quite rapid. Thus, the precise value assumed for the limits of life or water activity, do not appreciably change the time of water availability resulting from small desert rains. The Atacama Desert results may be applied to models of (H₂O) wetting in the upper soils of Mars due to light rains, melting snow and heavy precipitating fog.     

Water ice clouds in the Martian atmosphere: Two Martian years of SPICAM nadir UV measurements

The SPICAM instrument onboard Mars Express has successfully performed two Martian years (MY 27 and MY28) of observations. Water ice cloud optical depths spatial and temporal distribution was retrieved from nadir measurements in the wavelength range 300–320 nm. During the northern spring the cloud hazes complex distribution was monitored. The clouds in the southern hemisphere formed a zonal belt in the latitude range 30–60°S. The edge of the retreating north polar hood merged with the northern tropical clouds in the range 250–350°E. The development of the aphelion cloud belt (ACB) started with the weak hazes formation (cloud optical thickness 0.1–0.3) in the equatorial region. At the end of the northern spring, the ACB cloud optical thickness reached already values of 0.3–1. The ACB decay in the end of the northern summer was accompanied with a presence of clouds in the north mid-latitudes. The expanded north polar hood merged with the north mid-latitude clouds in the eastern hemisphere. The interannual comparison indicates a decrease in cloud activity immediately after a strong dust storm in southern summer of MY28. The strong dust storms of the MY28 may also be a reason of the observed north polar hood edge shifting northward by 5°.     

Sediment flux sensitivity to climate change: A case study in the Longchuanjiang catchment of the upper Yangtze River, China

Climate change may affect the sediment generation and transportation processes and the consequent sediment flux in a river. The sensitivity of suspended sediment flux to climate change in the Longchuanjiang catchment is investigated with Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). ANNs were calibrated and validated using sediment flux data from 1960 to 1990 during which the influence from human activities was relatively stable. The established ANN is used to predict the responses of sediment flux to 25 hypothetical climate scenarios, which were generated by adjusting the baseline temperature up to − 1, 1, 2 and 3 °C and by scaling the baseline precipitation by +/− 10% and +/− 20%. The results indicated when temperature remains unchanged, an increase in rainfall will lead to a rise in sediment flux; when rainfall level remains unchanged, an increase in temperature is likely to result in a decrease in sediment flux. Same percentage of changes in rainfall and temperature are likely to trigger higher responses in wetter months than in drier months. However, it is the combination of the change in temperature and rainfall that determines the change of sediment flux in a river. Higher sediment flux is expected to appear under wetter and warmer climate, when higher transport capacity is accompanied by higher erosion rate.     

Temperature changes on the Tibetan Plateau during the past 600 years inferred from ice cores and tree rings

The climatological signal of δ¹⁸O variations preserved in ice cores recovered from Puruogangri ice field in the central Tibetan Plateau (TP) was calibrated with regional meteorological data for the past 50 years. For the period AD 1860–2000, 5-yearly averaged ice core δ¹⁸O and a summer temperature reconstruction derived from pollen data from the same ice core were compared. The statistical results provide compelling evidence that Puruogangri ice core δ¹⁸O variations represent summer temperature changes for the central TP, and hence regional temperature history during the past 600 years was revealed. A comparison of Puruogangri ice core δ¹⁸О with several other temperature reconstructions shows that broad-scale climate anomalies since the Little Ice Age occurred synchronously across the eastern and southern TP, and the Himalayas. Common cold periods were identified in the 15th century, 1625–1645 AD, 1660–1700 AD, 1725–1775 AD, 1795–1830 AD, 1850–1870 AD, 1890–1920 AD, 1940–1950 AD, and 1975–1985 AD. The period 1725–1775 AD was one of the most prolonged cool periods during the past 400 years and corresponded to maximum Little Ice Age glacier advance of monsoonal temperate glaciers of the TP.     

Dust storms originating in the northern hemisphere during the third mapping year of Mars Global Surveyor

Data from the third Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) mapping year (MY 26, 2003-2005) are used to investigate dust storms originating in the northern hemisphere. Flushing dust storms, which originate as frontal dust storms at the northern polar vortex edge and propagate southward through topographic channels, are observed immediately before and after a quiescent period that occurs around the northern winter solstice (240°<Ls<300°). Both the pre- and post-solstice active periods can be further divided into two sub-periods. The most vigorous of these flushing storms occurred during L_s 210-220° and L_s 310-320°. The lifted dust crossed the equator and accumulated in the southern hemisphere. These major dust storms enhanced the Hadley circulation and suppressed the lower-level baroclinic eddies in the northern mid and high latitudes. The 2-3 sol wave number m=3 traveling waves show the best correlation with flushing dust storms and can combine with other wave modes to produce storm tracks and fronts within individual sub-periods.     

The 8.2 ka event: Evidence for seasonal differences and the rate of climate change in western Europe

Recent studies have drawn attention to differences in the seasonal impact of the 8.2 ka event, with longer cooler summers and shorter cooler/drier winters. However, there are no data available on the simultaneity or the rate of onset of the seasonal changes in Europe. Based on the microfacies and geochemical analyses of seasonally laminated varved sediments from Holzmaar, we present evidence of differences in duration and onset time of changes in summer temperature and winter rainfall during the 8.2 ka event. Since both summer and winter climate signals are co-registered within a single varve, there can be no ambiguity about the phasing and duration of the signals. Our data show that the onset and withdrawal of the 8.2 ka summer cooling occurred within a year, and that summer rains were reduced or absent during the investigated period. The onset of cooler summers preceded the onset of winter dryness by ca. 28 years. In view of the differences in nature and duration of the impact of the 8.2 ka event we suggest that a clearer definition of the 8.2 ka event (summer cooling or winter cooling/dryness) needs to be developed. Based on regional comparison and available modelling studies we also discuss the roles of solar variability, changes in North Atlantic Thermohaline circulation, and North Atlantic Circulation (NAO) during the period under consideration. Wavelet analyses of seasonal laminae indicates that the longer NAO cycles, linked to changes in the N. Atlantic temperatures, were more frequent during the drier periods.     

Comparison of Mediterranean sea level fields for the period 1961–2000 as given by a data reconstruction and a 3D model

Two Mediterranean sea level distributions spanning the last decades are examined. The first one is a reconstruction of sea level obtained by a reduced-space optimal interpolation applied to tide gauge and altimetry data. The second distribution is obtained from a 3D (baroclinic) regional circulation model. None of the two representations includes the mechanical atmospheric forcing. Results are presented for two different periods: 1993–2000 (for which altimetry data are available) and 1961–2000 (the longest period common to both distributions).The first period is examined as a test period for the model, since the reconstruction is very similar to altimetry observations. The modelled sea level is in fair agreement with the reconstruction in the Western Mediterranean and in the Aegean Sea (except in the early nineties), but in the Ionian Sea the model departs from observations. For the whole period 1961–2000 the main feature is a marked positive trend in the Ionian Sea (up to 1.8 mm yr^− 1), observed both in the reconstruction and in the model. Also the distribution of positive trends in the Western Mediterranean (mean value of 1.1 mm yr^− 1) and the smaller trends in the Aegean Sea (0.5 mm yr^− 1) are similar in the reconstruction and in the model, despite the first implicitly accounts for sea level variations due to remote sources such as ice melting and the second does not. The interannual sea level variability associated with key regional events such as the Eastern Mediterranean Transient is apparently captured by the reconstruction but not by the model (at least in its present configuration). Hence, the reconstruction can be envisaged as a useful tool to validate further long-term numerical simulations in the region.     

Regional desertification: A global synthesis

The paper presents results on the use of NOAA AVHRR data for desertification monitoring on a regional–global level. It is based on processing of the GIMMS 8 km global NDVI data set. Time series of annually integrated and standardized annual NDVI anomalies were generated and compared with a corresponding rainfall data set (1981–2003).The regions studied include the Mediterranean basin, the Sahel from the Atlantic to the Red Sea, major parts of the drylands of Southern Africa, China–Mongolia and the drylands of South America, i.e. important parts of the desertification prone drylands of the world.It is concluded that the suggested methodology is a robust and reliable way to assess and monitor vegetation trends and related desertification on a regional–global scale. A strong general relationship between NDVI and rainfall over time is demonstrated for considerable parts of the drylands. The results of performed trend analysis cannot be used to verify any systematic generic land degradation/desertification trend at the regional–global level. On the contrary, a “greening-up” seems to be evident over large regions.     

The exceptionally hot summer of 2007 in Athens, Greece — A typical summer in the future climate?

Summer 2007 was abnormally warm for many areas of southeastern Europe, the Balkan peninsula and parts of Asia Minor with departures from the seasonal means exceeding 4 °C in some areas but also distinct periods of extremely hot weather. Greece experienced very likely the warmest summer of its instrumental history with record breaking temperatures being observed at a number of stations. The historical air temperature record of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), extending back to the 19th century, was used in order to highlight the rarity of the event. Seasonal (June to August) temperature anomalies at NOA exceeded 3 °C corresponding to more than 3 standard deviations with respect to the 1961–1990 reference period. The record value of 44.8 °C was observed at NOA on 26 June 2007 (previous record 43 °C in June 1916) during the first and most intense heat wave that affected the area. The study places summer 2007 in the climatology of the previous century and also examines whether the statistics of summer 2007 have similarities with Mediterranean summers of the future. An ensemble of regional climate model simulations undertaken for the European domain indicate that summer 2007 reflects the daily maximum temperatures that are projected to occur in the latter part of the 21st century. The analysis of temperature data from other less urbanized stations indicates that the urban heat effect in Athens contributed positively to the anomalies of the nocturnal temperatures. The abnormally hot summer of 2007 is perhaps not the proof but a strong indicator of what eastern Mediterranean summers could resemble in future.