西北太平洋热带气旋移动路径的年际变化及其机理研究

利用JTWC的热带气旋资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析的风场资料以及Scripps海洋研究所的海温资料分析了西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)移动路径的年际变化及其机理。结果表明,西北太平洋TC移动路径有明显的年际变化并与西太平洋暖池热状态有很密切的关系。当西太平洋暖池处于暖状态,西北太平洋上空TC移动路径偏西,影响中国的台风个数偏多;相反,当西太平洋暖池处于冷状态,西北太平洋的TC移动路径偏东,影响日本的台风个数偏多,而影响中国的台风个数可能偏少。本研究以西太平洋暖池处于冷状态的2004年与西太平洋暖池处于暖状态的2006年的西北太平洋TC移动路径的差别进一步论证了这一分析结果并从动力理论方面分析了在西太平洋暖池不同热状态下,季风槽对赤道西传天气尺度的Rossby重力混合波转变成热带低压型波动(TD型波动)的影响,以此揭示西太平洋暖池的热状态对西北太平洋TC生成位置与移动路径年际变化的影响机理。分析结果表明,当西北太平洋暖池处于暖状态时,季风槽偏西,使得热带太平洋上空对流层低层Rossby重力混合波转变成TD型波动的位置也偏西,从而造成TC生成平均位置偏西,并易于出现西行路径;相反,当西太平洋暖池处于冷状态时,季风槽偏东,这造成了对流层低层Rossby重力混合波转变成TD型波动的区域,以及TC生成的平均位置都偏东,从而导致TC移动路径以东北转向为主。     

关于西北太平洋季风槽年际和年代际变异及其对热带气旋生成影响和机理的研究

总结和综述近年来中国科学院大气物理研究所季风系统研究中心,关于西北太平洋季风槽的年际和年代际变异及其对热带气旋和台风(TCs)生成的影响和机理的气候学研究进展,并综述一些有关的国内外研究。给出了夏、秋季西北太平洋季风槽的气候特征以及利于TCs生成的四类季风槽环流型,表明了西北太平洋季风槽强度和位置有明显的年际和年代际变异。特别是揭示了西北太平洋季风槽的年际和年代际变异不仅通过影响西北太平洋上空对流层低层气流的涡度和对流层高层的散度、对流层中、下层的水汽以及对流层上下层风场的垂直切变等利于TCs生成的大尺度环境因子的分布而影响TCs的生成,而且通过对热带对流耦合波动的转化和提供扰动能量而对TCs生成起着重要的动力作用。还指出今后有关西北太平洋季风槽和TCs活动一些亟需进一步研究的气候学问题。     

西北太平洋季风槽的季节和年际变化特征及其与热带气旋生成大尺度环境因子的联系

利用ERA-Interim再分析资料分析了夏秋季西北太平洋季风槽的气候特征以及季节和年际变化特征及其对西北太平洋热带气旋和台风(TCs)生成大尺度环境因子的影响。研究结果表明了西北太平洋季风槽有很明显的季节变化,在6~7月,季风槽和强对流活动区在5°N~15°N的南海和西北太平洋西侧上空,并逐渐东伸;到了8~9月,季风槽和强对流活动区向北移动、并向东扩展,一般位于10°N~20°N的南海和西北太平洋西侧、中部上空,有的年份可东伸到西北太平洋东侧,强度加强;到了10~11月,季风槽迅速减弱,并成为涡旋,强对流活动区也向南移和向西收缩。同时,研究还表明了西北太平洋季风槽有明显的年际变化。在季风槽强的年份,季风槽和强对流活动区可以从南海经西北太平洋西侧和中部东伸到西北太平洋的东侧上空;而在季风槽弱的年份,季风槽和强对流活动区主要位于南海和西北太平洋西侧和中部上空,季风槽强度的年际变化对它的季节变化也有重要影响。此外,研究还表明了随着季风槽的季节和年际变化,西北太平洋TCs生成的大尺度环境因子分布也发生很明显的变化。     

西北太平洋与南海热带气旋活动季节变化的差异及可能原因

利用1945~2011年美国联合台风预警中心(JTWC)西北太平洋热带气旋资料,研究了南海(5°N~25°N,110°E~120°E)与西北太平洋(5°N~25°N,120°E~180°)热带气旋生成位置、生成频数、强度和持续时间的季节变化差异及其成因。从热带气旋路径穿越经度带频数的角度,探讨了ENSO对气旋活动年际变化的影响。结果表明,南海热带气旋活动显著地受季风调控。在南海冬季风作用下,1~4月热带气旋生成于10°N以南且频数较少、强度较弱,这主要是低层气旋式相对涡度和弱东风切变区偏南造成的。相反,受夏季风影响,6~9月是热带气旋生成最多、最频繁的季节,大都生成于南海北部17°N附近。在5月(10月)的季节转换期,生成位置大幅度北进(南撤)且生成频数显著增加(减少),取决于风速垂直切变及中层的相对湿度的急剧转变。11、12月两海域热带气旋生成于10°N以南主要归因于其上空中层大气相对湿度较北部偏大。在西北太平洋,热带气旋生成的季节变化没有南海显著,只在7月有一次明显的变化,7~10月是热带气旋活动的"盛期"。在强度上,西北太平洋大部分区域全年均为弱东风切变,因此热带气旋以台风为主且持续时间长;但南海多为热带风暴。ENSO事件使得不同季节热带气旋生成区域和气旋路径地理位置发生显著变化。在El Nio事件期间,穿越南海所在经度带路径频数为负距平,而西北太平洋经度带为正距平;在La Nia事件期间,情况相反。     

西北太平洋低频振荡对热带气旋生成的动力作用及其物理机制

利用全球再分析资料以及美国联合台风预报中心的热带气旋(TC)数据, 从动力和能量转换方面深入分析了西北太平洋上空30～60天大气低频振荡(MJO)对西北太平洋区域TC生成的调制作用。研究结果表明, 当西北太平洋西侧为MJO的西风位相所控制时, MJO通过纬向风的辐合作用使得在辐合区传播的波动发生波数增加, 波长减短的结构改变, 从而触发较大尺度波动向天气尺度波动的演变; 西风位相期间纬向风的纬向辐合与经向切变可以使得低频波动动能向高频波动的转换得到加强, 从而使得在此区域TC生成的数量明显偏多。相反, 当西北太平洋西侧为MJO的东风位相时, TC生成的数量得到抑制。此外, 随着西风位相中西风的加强(东风位相中东风的加强), TC的生成概率将得到增加 (减少)。但是, 在西北太平洋东侧海域, MJO对TC活动的调制作用要减弱许多。对MJO活动年际变化的研究表明, 在西太暖池处于暖状态年时, 西北太平洋西侧的MJO活动频繁, 西风位相活跃, 从而有利于此区域TC的生成, 而冷年的情况正好相反。     

季风槽中热带气旋生成初期扰动的扰动动能收支分析

热带气旋总是发生在天气尺度扰动中,本文利用NCEP/NCAR提供的FNL资料,选取了2004年8月11日—9月10日期间季风槽中5个热带气旋生成初期扰动,通过计算动能收支分析这些初期扰动的发展。其中4个热带气旋都是生成在向西北方向传播的天气尺度波列的气旋性环流中,气旋性环流可以和呈东北—西南方向倾斜西传的MRG波的逆时针环流耦合。动能收支计算表明,初期扰动动能在热带气旋生成前12~72 h不断增加,扰动位势通量的辐合对扰动动能增长起了主要作用。在季风槽东端的合流区时,能量聚集项有重要作用,随着扰动移入季风槽内,低频纬向风切变项成为能量增加的一个重要来源。Sarika生成于季风槽西撤阶段,非线性作用项对扰动发展起了关键作用。     

两类El Niño型对西北太平洋季风槽及热带气旋生成的可能影响

通过对1948~2015年不同El Ni?o事件下西北太平洋季风槽变化和热带气旋(tropical cyclone,TC)生成进行分析,初步探讨了不同El Ni?o型事件对季风槽及其对TC的可能影响。分析结果表明,较东太平洋增暖(eastern Pacific warming,EPW)年,中太平洋增暖(central Pacific warming,CPW)年季风槽偏弱,位置相对偏西、偏北。在CPW年,中(西和东)太平洋海温增暖(降低)引起了从中到西太平洋热带地区的西风异常和中太平洋地区上升运动及对流活动加强,使得季风槽加强东伸,同时西太平洋副高偏弱、偏北,季风槽向北推进;而在EPW年,赤道东(西)太平洋海温增暖(降低)使得赤道地区西风异常显著加强东扩,异常Walker环流的上升支东移至东太平洋,季风活动加强,副高偏强、偏南,这使得季风槽较CPW年相比更强、更偏东。利于TC生成的大尺度环境因子随季风槽强度和位置的变化而发生改变,在CPW年,低层气旋性涡度、高层辐散、高的中层相对湿度以及低垂直风切变区随着季风槽向北移动;而在EPW年,这些因子随季风槽向南、向东偏移。这些大尺度环境因子的变化使得西北太平洋TC生成的位置在CPW年比EPW年更加偏北、偏西。     

西北太平洋风速垂直切变异常对热带气旋活动年际变化的影响

应用中国《台风年鉴》资料、欧洲中心40年月平均再分析资料和NOAA的逐月海温资料,研究了西北太平洋(5°—30°N,110°E—180°)风速垂直切变异常对热带气旋(TC)活动年际变化的影响。研究发现,西北太平洋所有TC、风暴以上级别的TC(TSTY,即达到热带风暴级别及以上的所有TC)和所有台风(WTY,包括台风、强台风和超强台风)年频数与西北太平洋风速垂直切变都显著负相关。西北太平洋风速垂直切变大小对生成源地在南海(5°—30°N,110°—120°E)TC和西北太平洋西部海域(5°—30°N,120°—150°E)TC的影响较小,而对西北太平洋东部海域(5°—30°N,150°E—180°)生成的TC影响最大:即西北太平洋风速垂直切变负异常年,有利于西北太平洋东部海域TC生成发展,使得负异常年较正异常年TC频数偏多和源地平均位置偏东;并且风速垂直切变的变化对TC频数和生成源地影响的显著性,随着TC强度的增加而增加。对TSTY生成环境场的进一步分析表明,西北太平洋风速垂直切变偏小年,季风槽偏强位置偏东,它的东端位于宽阔的太平洋洋面,与弱风速垂直切变区相配合,暖的海温加上低层强烈的正涡度和强烈辐合,且相应的高层有强的气流辐散区,这些环境场都有利于TSTY在主要源地尤其是西北太平洋东部海域生成,这是风速垂直切变偏小年TSTY偏多和生成源地偏东的重要原因。     

西北太平洋大气准双周振荡对热带气旋活动的影响

利用JRA逐日风场资料、 NOAA/NCEP的逐日OLR场资料以及美国联合台风预报中心的热带气旋 (TC) 数据, 通过对西北太平洋 (WNP) 上空10～20天大气准双周振荡 (QBWO) 不同位相的划分, 深入分析了QBWO对WNP区域生成TC的调制作用。研究结果表明: 在西北太平洋准双周尺度上, 对流与纬向风表现出沿热带地区向西偏北传播的特性。不同位相合成的季风槽位置和强度也发生相应的改变, 由此可见, QBWO是WNP上空季风槽季内变化的重要影响因子。当处于位相1、 4时, WNP生成TC的概率较低, 且登陆我国TC的数量也较少; 当处于位相2、 3时, WNP发生TC的概率较高, 特别是处于位相3时, 不仅TC发生概率最高, 而且登陆我国的TC数量也最多。沿热带地区西传的天气尺度波动 (周期10天以下) 在WNP通过季风槽的纬向风辐合作用, 易于转变为波数较大、 波长较短的热带低压 (TD) 型扰动, 这种扰动在季风槽区通过能量的转换有利于发展成为TC。     

澳大利亚冷空气活动对西北太平洋热带气旋生成的影响

利用1980—2012年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及中国气象局的最佳台风路径资料,研究澳大利亚冷空气活动对西北太平洋热带气旋生成的影响。研究发现,北半球夏季925 h Pa经向风超过6 m/s的频数在澳大利亚东北部海域最高,达40 d/a。为此,确定澳大利亚冷空气侵入南北半球低纬的关键区为澳大利亚东北部所罗门海地区,并用该区域经向风风速定义了一个澳大利亚冷空气活动强度指数。该指数与越赤道气流及赤道西风都有很好的相关关系,还与同期的SOI(Southern Oscillation Index,南方涛动指数)显著相关。当SOI偏低(高)时,关键区经向风风速偏强(弱)。合成分析和相关分析结果表明,澳大利亚冷空气活动强、弱年西北太平洋热带气旋生成的位置的变化与季风槽的变化一致,西北太平洋热带气旋生成总数则无显著差异。澳大利亚冷空气活动强年季风槽偏强偏东,热带气旋生成位置偏东偏南;而弱年季风槽偏弱偏西,热带气旋生成位置偏西偏北。低层涡度场、水汽输送、风垂直切变以及低纬地区对流活动的分布表明,澳大利亚冷空气活动强年有利于热带气旋生成位置偏东、偏南;弱年偏西、偏北。     

赤道波动转换在西北太平洋热带气旋生成中的作用

This study associates tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) with the equatorial wave transition from an interannual viewpoint, revealing that the tropical cyclogenesis mean location may be modulated by a longitudinal shift in the transition of Mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves to off-equatorial tropical depression (TD) disturbances from year to year. To a large extent, the wave transition is attributable to the monsoon trough in response to the thermal state of the warm pool (WP) over the WNP. During the cold state years in the WP, the basic flow confluence region associated with the monsoon trough penetrates eastward, leading to an eastward shift in the location of the wave transition. Such an environment, in which wave accumulation and energy conversion occur, is favorable for tropical cyclogenesis; as a result, the averaged cyclogenesis location moves eastward. The condition is reserved during the warm years in the WP, resulting in the prominent westward-retreating mean TC formation. Citation: Chen, G. H., and R. H. Huang, 2008: Role of equatorial wave transitions in tropical cyclogenesis over the western north Pacific, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 1, 64-68     

INFLUENCE OF THE INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW ON TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

The influence of the interannual variation of cross-equatorial flow(CEF) on tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific(WNP) is examined in this paper by using the tropical cyclone(TC) best track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the JRA-25 reanalysis dataset. The results showed that the number of TCs forming to the east of 140°E over the southeastern part of the western North Pacific(WNP) is in highly positive correlation with the variation of the CEF near 125° E and 150° E, i.e., the number of tropical cyclogeneses increases when the cross-equatorial flows are strong. Composite analyses showed that during the years of strong CEF, the variations of OLR, vertical wind shear between 200-850 h Pa, 850 h Pa relative vorticity and 200 h Pa divergence are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis to the east of 140°E over the tropical WNP, and vice versa. Moreover, it is also discussed from the view of barotropic energy conversion that during the years of strong CEF, an eastward-extended monsoon trough leads to the rapid growth of eddy kinetic energy over the eastern part of WNP, which is favorable for tropical cyclogenesis;but during the years of weak CEF, the monsoon trough is located westward in the western part of the WNP, consistent with the growth area of eddy kinetic energy. As a result, there are fewer TC geneses over the eastern part of WNP.Besides, the abrupt strengthening of a close-by CEF 2-4 days before tropical cyclogenesis may be the one of its triggers.     

LOW-DEFORMATION VORTICITY AREAS IN SYNOPTIC-SCALE DISTURBANCES FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS: AN OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS

It has long been known that incipient tropical cyclones (TCs) always occur in synoptic-scale disturbances or tropical cyclogenesis precursors, and the disturbances can intensify only within a limited area during tropical cyclogenesis. An observational analysis of five tropical cyclogenesis events over the western North Pacific during 11 August to 10 September 2004 is conducted to demonstrate the role of synoptic-scale disturbances in establishing a limited area of low-deformation vorticity for tropical cyclogenesis. The analysis of the five tropical cyclogenesis events shows that synoptic-scale tropical cyclogenesis precursors provide a region of low-deformation vorticity, which is measured with large positive values of the Okubo-Weiss (OW) parameter. The OW concentrated areas are within the tropical cyclogenesis precursors with a radius of about 400-500 km and can be found as early as 72 hours prior to the formation of the tropical depression. When the TCs reached the tropical storm intensity, the concentrated OW is confined to an area of 200-300 radius and the storm centers are coincident with the centers of the maximum OW. This study indicates that the tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the low-deformation 18-72 hours prior to the formation of tropical depressions, suggesting the importance of low-deformation vorticity in pre-existent synoptic-scale disturbances. Although the Rossby radius of deformation is reduced in TC genesis precedes, the reduction does not sufficiently make effective conversion of convective heating into kinetic energy within the low-deformation area. Further analysis indicates that the initial development of four of the five disturbances is coupled with the counterclockwise circulation of the mixed Rossby-Gravity (MRG) wave.     

Intraseasonal modulation of tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific: a case study

The temporal clustering of the western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis and its modulation by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during the 1991 summer were examined based on the tropical cyclone best track, outgoing longwave radiation, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets. The wavelet analysis shows that convective activities around the monsoon trough in the western North Pacific possessed a distinct MJO with a period of 20–60 days. Two or more tropical cyclones were observed to form successively during each active phase of the MJO, and tropical cyclones tended to generate around the southeastern part of the maximum vorticity of the low-frequency cyclonic circulation during the developing and peak stages of the active MJO phase. But tropical cyclogenesis scarcely occurred during inactive MJO phases. Thus the MJO was a major agent in modulating repeated development of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific during the 1991 summer. The MJO in circulation was characterized by a huge anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) in the lower troposphere existing alternately over the western North Pacific, leading to an enhanced (weakened) monsoon trough. An examination of the meridional gradient of absolute vorticity associated with the zonal flow indicates that the zonal flow in the monsoon trough region satisfied the necessary conditions for barotropic instability, with both zonal flow and the meridional gradient of absolute vorticity varying on the similar MJO timescale. The intraseasonal oscillation of such an unstable zonal flow might thus be an important mechanism for temporal clustering of tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific. The barotropic conversion could provide a major energy source for the formation and growth of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific during active MJO phases, with the eddy kinetic energy generation being dominated by both terms of eddies interacting with zonal and meridional gradients of the basic zonal flow.     

近年来关于西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动的气候学研究进展

本文主要综述和回顾了近年来季风系统研究中心关于西北太平洋热带气旋和台风(TCs)活动的气候学研究进展及有关的国内外研究.文中不仅回顾了最近关于夏、秋季西北太平洋利于TCs生成的大尺度环流型及其与涡旋的正压能量交换、西北太平洋TCs活动的年际和年代际及季节内的变化特征、以及今后全球变暖背景下西北太平洋TCs活动的变化趋势的气候学研究进展,而且综述了西北太平洋季风槽及热带对流耦合波动对西北太平洋上TCs生成的动力作用的研究.此外,文中还指出今后有关西北太平洋TCs活动一些亟需进一步研究的气候学问题.     

Influence of monsoon over the warm pool on interannual variation on tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

The relationship between the interannual variation in tropical cyclone （TC） activity over the western North Pacific （WNP） and the thermal state over the warm pool （WP） is examined in this paper. The results show that the subsurface temperature in the WP is well correlated with TC geographical distribution and track type. Their relation is linked by the East Asian monsoon trough. During the warm years, the westward-retreating monsoon trough creates convergence and vorticity fields that are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the northwest of the WNP, whereas more TCs concentrating in the southeast result from eastward penetration of the monsoon trough during the cold years. The steering flows at 500 hPa lead to a westward displacement track in the warm years and recurving prevailing track in the cold years.
The two types of distinct processes in the monsoon environment triggering tropical cyclogenesis are hypothesized by composites centered for TC genesis location corresponding to two kinds of thermal states of the WP. During the warm years, low-frequency intraseasonal oscillation is active in the west of the WNP such that eastward-propagating westerlies cluster TC genesis in that region. In contrast, during the cold years, the increased cyclogenesis in the southeast of the WNP is mainly associated with tropical depression type disturbances transiting from equatorially trapped mixed Rossby gravity waves. Both of the processes may be fundamental mechanisms for the inherent interannual variation in TC activity over the WNP.     

Re-examination of tropical cyclone formation in monsoon troughs over the western North Pacific

The monsoon trough(MT) is one of the large-scale patterns favorable for tropical cyclone(TC) formation over the western North Pacific(WNP). This study re-examines TC formation by treating the MT as a large-scale background for TC activity during May–October. Over an 11-year(2000–10) period, 8.3 TC formation events on average per year are identified to occur within MTs, accounting for 43.1% of the total TC formation events in the WNP basin. This percentage is much lower than those reported in previous studies. Further analysis indicates that TC formation events in monsoon gyres were included at least in some previous studies. The MT includes a monsoon confluence zone where westerlies meet easterlies and a monsoon shear line where the trade easterlies lie north of the monsoon westerlies. In this study, the large-scale flow pattern associated with TC formation in the MT is composited based on the reference point in the confluence zone where both the zonal and meridional wind components are zero with positive vorticity. While previous studies have found that many TCs form in the confluence zone, the composite analysis indicates that nearly all of the TCs formed in the shear region, since the shear region is associated with stronger low-level relative vorticity than the confluence zone. The prevailing easterly vertical shear of zonal wind and barotropic instability may also be conducive to TC formation in the shear region, through the development of synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in the MT that are necessary for TC formation.