Arctic hazes in summer over Greenland and the North American Arctic: II. Nature and concentrations of accumulation-mode and giant particles

Airborne measurements made during August 1985 over Greenland and its environs show that both accumulation-mode (0.1 m D2.0 m) and giant (D2 m) particles were present in relatively high concentrations in arctic haze layers and that the accumulation-mode particles dominated light scattering. Particles with diameters (D) between 1 and 4 m consisted predominately of mixed materials, small and dense inclusions, and probably organic compounds containing sulfur. Many of the particles from 0.1 to 1 m in diameter were also of mixed composition, with sulfuric acid, ammonium sulfate and organics probably the dominant constituents.     

ALPEX-Simulation

Summary In a project ALPEX-Simulation, sponsored by the Österreichischer Fond zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung (FWF), all eight cases of ALPEX-SOP cyclones were numerically simulated with a fine mesh isentropic model of the atmosphere. These numerical simulations in six-hourly intervals allow a deeper insight into the synoptics and dynamics of the cyclogeneses in the Western Mediterranean, especially into the genesis of the two basic types of cyclones: the so-called Überströmungs-type and Vorderseiten-type. In the first phase of cyclogenesis of the Überströmungs-type, the blocking and flow splitting of the cold air due to the Alps and the canalization between the Alps and the Massif Central are important. Cold air flows cyclonically around the western part of the Alps, creating a vorticity maximum at the south western edge of the Alpine, bow and leads also to an enhanced PV. In connection with warm air in the Mediterranean, a strong baroclinic zone is generated. The interaction between the arriving PV maximum in the upper troposphere and the enhanced PV at the bottom leads to cyclogenesis in the Western Mediterranean. In the case of the Vorderseiten-type warm air advection dominates with the exception of a shallow layer of cold air in the inner Po-Valley, which is shielded by the Alpine ridge. A well-pronounced PV maximum builds up and couples with the PV maximum arriving at upper levels, even before the cold air, coming from the north-west, has surrounded the Alps. The cold air only intensifies the development by raising the baroclinity. Therefore, the Vorderseiten-cyclogenesis is an orographically modified cyclogenesis, in the course of which the cyclonic development is triggered by the Alps, whereas the Überströmungs-cyclogenesis is an orographically induced cyclogenesis i.e. a true lee cyclogenesis.With 14 FiguresDied in a tragic traffic accident on June 6, 1993.     

Application of a “Big-Tree” model to regional climate modeling: a sensitivity study

Summary ¶In order to better understand land-atmosphere interactions and increase the predictability of climate models, it is important to investigate the role of forest representation in climate modeling. Corresponding to the big-leaf model commonly employed in land surface schemes to represent the effects of a forest, a so called big-tree model, which uses multi-layer vegetation to represent the vertical canopy heterogeneity, was introduced and incorporated into the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) regional climate model RegCM2, to make the vegetation model more physically based. Using this augmented RegCM2 and station data for China during 1991 Meiyu season, we performed 10 experiments to investigate the effects of the application of the big-tree model on the summer monsoon climate.With the big-tree model incorporated into the regional climate model, some climate characteristics, e.g. the 3-month-mean surface temperature, circulation, and precipitation, are significantly and systematically changed over the model domain, and the change of the characteristics differs depending on the area. Due to the better representation of the shading effect in the big-tree model, the temperature of the lower layer atmosphere above the plant canopy is increased, which further influences the 850hPa temperature. In addition, there are significant decreases in the mean latent heat fluxes (within 20–30W/m²) in the three areas of the model domain.The application of the big-tree model influences not only the simulated climate of the forested area, but also that of the whole model domain, and its impact is greater on the lower atmosphere than on the upper atmosphere. The simulated rainfall and surface temperature deviate from the originally simulated result and are (or seem to be) closer to the observations, which implies that an appropriate representation of the big-tree model may improve the simulation of the summer monsoon climate.We also find that the simulated climate is sensitive to some big-tree parameter values and schemes, such as the shape, height, zero-plane displacement height and mixing-length scheme. The simulated local/grid differences may be very large although the simulated areal-average differences may be much lower. The area-average differences in the monthly-mean surface temperature and heat fluxes can amount to 0.5°C and 4W/m², respectively, which correspond to maximum local/grid differences of 3.0°C and 40W/m² respectively. It seems that the simulated climate is most sensitive to the parameter of the zero-plane displacement among the parameters studied.     

The Value Of The β Coefficient In The Relaxed Eddy Accumulation Method In Terms Of Fourth-Order Moments

The commonly measured value of in the relaxed eddy accumulationmethod of about 0.56is shown to arise from the non-Gaussiannature of turbulence. Fourth-orderGram–Charlier functions forthe two-dimensional probability distributionsof variation in the horizontal component of wind velocityand concentrations of water vapour, carbondioxide and methane with respect to thevertical component of wind velocity are used to examinethe value of .An analytical solution for ispresented in terms of fourth-order moments.Under mean conditions, this solution givesa value for of0.557. Variation of is shown to be controlledprimarily by the ratio of the mean ofc'w3 (where c'is relevant to the entity of interest andw' is vertical component of windvelocity) to the correlationcoefficient between the entity concentrationand vertical component of wind velocity.     

Plötzlicher Herztod und Wetter

Zusammenfassung An einem Material von 100 Fällen eindeutig gesicherten Herztodes, die im Institut für Gerichtliche und Soziale Medizin in Frankfurt am Main aus einem bestimmten Bereich — Raum Frankfurt am Main — und einer bestimmten zeit—Kalenderjahre 1948 bis 1950—zur Autopsie gelangten, einerseits und den bioklimatischen Daten für den gleichen Raum und die gleiche Zeit anderseits, wurde der Zusammenhang von Herztodesfällen und Wettervorgängen mit der Wahrscheinlichkeitsüberlegung, dem Wahrscheinlichkeitsintegral und formalstatistischen Methoden überprüft. Die Auswertung ergab, daß eine starke Abhängigkeit des Herztodes vom Wettergeschehen besteht. Die Häufung der Herztodesfälle konnte für die Sammelgruppe Wetterstörungen, für labiles Aufgleiten, Warmfront mit Aufgleiten und Kaltfront mit Turbulenz ebenso eindeutig gesichert werden, wie die Verminderung der Herztodesfälle in störungsfreien Zeiten. Die hohe Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Beziehung besteht ferner für Kaltfront mit Aufgleiten und in geringerem Maße auch für Föhndurchbruch. Während bei Okklusion das Material zu einem abschließenden Urteil zu gering war, konnte bei allen übrigen Wetterlagen eine Beziehung zum plötzlichen Herztod nicht nachgewiesen werden. Auch für die Gruppen, bei denen eine enge Beziehung statistisch gesichert werden konnte, sei betont, daß die Wettervorgänge nicht die alleinige Ursache des plötzlichen Herztodes, sondern nur ein auslösendes Moment bei schon vorher schwer geschädigten Herzen darstellen.

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Summary On the basis of 100 ascertained cases of cardiac death from a certain region—province Frankfort on-the-Main—and a certain period—calendar years 1948 to 1950—, submitted to autopsy in the Institute for Legal and Social Medicine at Frankfort on-the-Main, and of bioclimatic data from the same region and period, the relation between cardiac death and meteorological phenomena was examined by means of probability considerations, the probability integral, and methods of formal statistics. Evaluation of this material showed cardiac death to be strongly dependent on weather conditions. Increase of frequency of cardiac death could be established without any doubt for the collective groups weather disturbances, unstable ascending motion, warm front with ascending motion, cold front with turbulence, whereas decrease of frequency was found in undisturbed periods. Furthermore, high probability of an existing relation was found for cold front with ascending motion and, to a lesser degree, also for foehn invasion. As to occlusion no definite conclusions could be drawn for scarcity of observations. For all the other weather types no relation to sudden cardiac death could be proved. Meteorological phenomena are by no means the only cause of sudden cardiac death, not even for the groups in which a close relation could be established statistically. They have but an initiatory effect in case of prior severe heart diseases.

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Résumé Disposant d'un matériel médical de 100 cas de mort cardiaque qui ont fait l'objet d'autopsies à l'Institut de médecine légale et sociale de Francfort sur le Mein (région de Francfort et période de 1948 à 1950), et disposant d'autre part pour la même région et pour la même période d'observations bioclimatologiques, l'auteur a étudié la relation de ces décès avec les phénomènes météorologiques à l'aide des méthodes modernes de statistique, de l'intégrale de probabilité etc. Le résultat montre une étroite dépendance centre les cas de mort cardiaque et les conditions météorologiques. On a pu vérifier sans doute possible l'augmentation des décès lors de «perturbations», d'«ascendances labiles», de «fronts chauds avec glissement ascendant», de «fronts froids avec turbulence», de même que leur diminution lors de périodes non troublées. La forte corrélation subsiste avec les «fronts froids avec ascendance» et à un moindre degré avec «l'invasion du foehn». Tandis que pour les «occlusions» le matériel disponible était trop restreint pour aboutir à une conclusion, l'examen des situations autres que les précédentes n'a pas conduit à une relation intime. Il convient de remarquer que pour tous les groupes de météores ayant donné une corrélation statistique très nette, les phénomènes météorologiques n'ont joué qu'un rôle déclancheur chez des malades déjà gravement atteints.

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Mit 2 Textabbildungen.     

Estimates of snow accumulation and volume in the Swiss Alps under changing climatic conditions

Summary ¶Snow is a key feature of mountain environments in terms of the controls it exerts on hydrology, vegetation, and in terms of its economic significance (e.g. for the ski industry). Its quantification in a changing climate is thus important for various environmental and economic impact assessments. Based on observational analysis, surface energy balance modeling, and the latest data from high-resolution regional climate models, this paper investigates the possible changes in snow volume and seasonality in the Swiss Alps. An average warming of 4°C as projected for the period 2071–2100 with respect to current climate suggests that snow volume in the Alps may respond by reductions of at least 90% at altitudes close to 1000m, by 50% at 2000m, and 35% at 3000m. In addition, the duration of snow cover is sharply reduced in the warmer climate, with a termination of the season 50–60 days earlier at high elevations above 2000–2500m and 110–130 days earlier at medium elevation sites close to the 1000m altitude. The shortening of the snow season concerns more the end (spring) rather than the beginning (autumn), so that it should be expected that snow melt will intervene much earlier in the season than under current conditions. The results of this study are of relevance to the estimations of the impacts that the projected warming may have on the amount and timing of water in hydrological basins, on the start of the vegetation season, and on the financial status of many mountain resorts.     

Effects of heat and water vapor transport on eddy covariance measurement of CO2 fluxes

Flux densities of carbon dioxide were measured over an arid, vegetation-free surface by eddy covariance techniques and by a heat budget-profile method, in which CO₂ concentration gradients were specified in terms of mixing ratios. This method showed negligible fluxes of CO₂, consistent with the bareness of the experimental site, whereas the eddy covariance measurements indicated large downward fluxes of CO₂. These apparently conflicting observations are in quantitative agreement with the results of a recent theory which predicts that whenever there are vertical fluxes of sensible or latent heat, a mean vertical velocity is developed. This velocity causes a mean vertical convective mass flux (= _cw for CO₂, in standard notation). The eddy covariance technique neglects this mean convective flux and measures only the turbulent flux _c w. Thus, when the net flux of CO₂ is zero, the eddy covariance method indicates an apparent flux which is equal and opposite to the mean convective flux, i.e., _c w = – _c w. Corrections for the mean convective flux are particularly significant for CO₂ because _cw and _c w are often of similar magnitude. The correct measurement of the net CO₂ flux by eddy covariance techniques requires that the fluxes of sensible and latent heat be measured as well.     

Periodicity of annual precipitation in different climate regions of Croatia

Summary The periodicity of a 100-year series of annual precipitation over Croatia has been studied by means of power spectrum analysis at 3 stations representing the different climatic regions of Croatia. The annual precipitation variance spectra in the continental lowland (Osijek) and at the north East Adriatic coast (Crikvenica) can be fitted by Markov white noise continuum, but in the transitional region between the Dinaric Alps and the Pannonian lowland (Zagreb-Gri) a non-white noise continuum is necessary. Quasi-periodic oscillations appear in two spectra ranges: short (2.2 and 4.7 years) and medium (25.0 and 33.3 years). These results are compared with those of other authors for other parts of the Europe.With 2 Figures     

An observational study of heat fluxes and their relationships with net radiation

Experimental evidence indicates that the diurnal behaviour of the fluxes of heat into the ground and into the atmosphere versus the net flux of radiation can be modelled by closed curves, the hourly values folowing one another in either a clockwise or counter clockfashion. A general formulation to express the different heat fluxes as a function of net radiation is proposed. This relationship between the different heat fluxes and can be expressed as a sum of three terms: the first indicates a direct proportionality to , the second gives the deviation from linearity and depends on /t, and the third gives the value of the flux when = 0. The formulae are then expressed as a function of time and the ratios between the heat fluxes and are evaluated. A comparison with the approximations generally used shows that the latter may be considered as particular cases of the more general equations proposed here.     

Convective Profile Constants Revisited

This paper examines the interpolation betweenBusinger–Dyer (Kansas-type) formulae,_u = (1 -1 6 )^-1/4 and_t = (1 - 16 )^-1/2, and free convection forms. Based on matching constraints, the constants, a_u and a_t, in the convective flux-gradient relations, _u = (1 - a_u )^-1/3 and _t = (1 - a_t )^-1/3, are determined. It isshown that a_u and a_t cannot be completely independent if convective forms are blended with theKansas formulae. In other words, these relationships already carryinformation about a_u and a_t. This follows because the Kansas relations cover a wide stability range (up to = - 2), which includes a lower part of the convective sublayer (about 0.1 < - < 2). Thus, there is a subrange where both Kansas and convective formulae are valid. Matching Kansas formulae and free convection relations within thesubrange 0.1 < - < 2 and independently smoothing ofthe blending function are used to determine a_u and a_t. The values a_u = 10 for velocity and a_t = 34for scalars (temperature and humidity) give a good fit. This new approacheliminates the need for additional independent model constants and yields a`smooth' blending between Kansas and free-convection profileforms in the COARE bulk algorithm.     

Isotopic Composition of Non-Methane Hydrocarbons in Emissions from Biomass Burning

The stable carbon isotope ratios of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC) and methyl chloride emitted from biomass burning were determined by analyzing seven whole air samples collected during different phases of the burning process as part of a laboratory study of wood burning. The average of the stable carbon isotope ratios of emitted alkanes, alkenes and aromatic compounds is identical to that of the burnt fuel; more than 50% of the values are within a range of ±1.5 of thecomposition of the burnt fuel wood. Thus for the majority of NMHC emitted from biomass burning stable carbon isotope ratio of the burnt fuel a good first order approximation for the isotopic composition of the emissions. Of the more than twenty compounds we studied, only methyl chloride and ethyne differed in stable carbon isotope ratios by more than a few per mil from the composition of the fuel. Ethyne is enriched in ¹³C by approximately 20–30, and most of the variability can beexplained by a dependence on flame temperature. The ¹³C values decreaseby 0.019 /K (±0.0053/K) with increasing temperature. Methyl chloride is highly depleted in ¹³C, on average by25. However the results cover a wide range of nearly 30. Specifically, in two measurements with wood from Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus delegatensis) as fuel we observed the emission of extremely light methyl chloride (–68.5and–65.5). This coincides with higher than average emission ratiosfor methyl chloride (15.5 × 10^–5 and 18 ×10^–5 mol CH₃Cl/mol CO₂). These high emission ratios are consistent with the highchlorine content of the burnt fuel, although, due to the limited number of measurements, it would be premature to generalize these findings. The limited number of observations also prevents any conclusion on a systematic dependence between chlorine content of the fuel, emission ratios and stable carbon isotope ratio of methyl chloride emissions. However, our results show that a detailed understanding of the emissions of methyl chloride from chloride rich fuels is important for understanding its global budget. It is also evident that the usefulness of stable carbon isotope ratios to constrain the global budget of methyl chloride will be complicated by the very large variability of the stable carbon isotope ratio of biomass burning emissions. Nevertheless, ultimately the large fractionation may provide additional constraints for the contribution of biomass burning emissions to the atmospheric budget of methyl chloride.     

Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century

Summary The first GCM climate change projections to include dynamic vegetation and an interactive carbon cycle produced a very significant amplification of global warming over the 21st century. Under the IS92a business as usual emissions scenario CO₂ concentrations reached about 980ppmv by 2100, which is about 280ppmv higher than when these feedbacks were ignored. The major contribution to the increased CO₂ arose from reductions in soil carbon because global warming is assumed to accelerate respiration. However, there was also a lesser contribution from an alarming loss of the Amazonian rainforest. This paper describes the phenomenon of Amazonian forest dieback under elevated CO₂ in the Hadley Centre climate-carbon cycle model.     

Nitrate in the atmospheric boundary layer of the tropical South Pacific: Implications regarding sources and transport

Weekly bulk aerosol samples collected at Funafuti, Tuvalu (8°30S, 179°12E), American Samoa (14°15S, 170°35W), and Rarotonga (21°15S, 159°45W), from 1983 through most of 1987 have been analyzed for nitrate and other constituents. The mean nitrate concentration is about 0.11 g m^–3 at each of these stations: 0.107±0.011 g m^–3 at Funafuti; 0.116±0.008 at American Samoa; and 0.117±0.010 at Rarotonga. Previous measurements of mineral aerosol and trace metal concentrations at American Samoa are among the lowest ever recorded for the near-surface troposphere and indicate that this region is minimally affected by transport of soil material and pollutants from the continents. Consequently, the nitrate concentration of 0.11 g m^–3 can be regarded as the natural level for the remote marine boundary layer of the tropical South Pacific Ocean. In contrast, over the tropical North Pacific which is significantly impacted by the transport of material from Asia and North America, the mean nitrate concentrations are about three times higher, 0.29 and 0.36 g m^–3 at Midway and Oahu, respectively. The major sources of the nitrate over the tropical South Pacific are still very uncertain. A very significant correlation between the nitrate concentrations at American Samoa and the concentrations of ²¹⁰Pb suggests that transport from continental sources might be important. This continental source could be lightning, which occurs most frequently over the tropical continents. A near-zero correlation with ⁷Be indicates that the stratosphere and upper troposphere are probably not the major sources. A significant biogenic source would be consistent with the higher mean nitrate concentrations, 0.16 to 0.17 g m^–3, found over the equatorial Pacific at Fanning Island (3°55N, 159°20W) and Nauru (0°32S, 166°57E). The lack of correlation between nitrate and nss sulfate at American Samoa does not necessarily preclude an important role for marine biogenic sources.     

On the similarity in atmospheric fluctuations of carbon dioxide,water vapor and temperature over vegetated fields

This paper describes the similarity between atmospheric fluctuations of carbon dioxide, water vapor and temperature using data which cover a wide range of instability (0.02 < < 10). The is the Monin-Obukhov stability parameter including the humidity effect.The spectral analysis shows that the coherency between fluctuations of carbon dioxide and water vapor or temperature is very close to unity, and the phase difference is basically out of phase for whole frequency ranges analyzed. The stability dependence of the normalized standard deviation of carbon dioxide is very similar to those of water vapor and temperature. The normalized standard deviation is about 2.5 under near neutral conditions, and it decreases with increasing instability following the -1/3; power law as (-)^-1/3. The skewness factors of carbon dioxide, water vapor and temperature show a systematic departure with increasing instabilities for 0.02 < s- < 1, and level off at high instabilities for 1 < -\s < 10. The stability dependence of the flatness factors is not so clear as that noted in the standrard deviation and skewness factors. Dissipation rates of carbon dioxide, water vapor and temperature variance are well related to the spectral peak wavelength. This seems to be real since the local production and local dissipation rates are the main terms, almost balancing one another in the variance budget equations for scalar entities.     

Trace gas exchange at the air/water interface: Measurements of mass accommodation coefficients

A liquid jet of 90 m diameter and variable length has been utilized to determine absorption rates and, hence, mass accommodation coefficients , of atmospheric trace gases. The compounds investigated are HCl (0.01), HNO₃ (0.01), N₂O₅ (0.005), peroxyacetyl nitrate (>0.001), and HONO (0.005). It is concluded that the absorption of these trace gases by liquid atmospheric water is not significantly retarded by interfacial mass transport. The strengths and limitations of the liquid jet technique for measuring mass accommodation coefficients are explored.     

A study of the sensitivity of bare soil evaporation schemes to soil surface wetness,using the coupled soil moisture and surface temperature prediction model,BARESOIL

Summary The performance of evaporation schemes with and approach and their combination within resistance representation of evaporation from bare soil surface is discussed. For this purpose nine schemes, based on different functions of or , on the ratio of the volumetric soil moisture content and its saturated value are used.The quality of the chosen schemes has been evaluated using the results of time integration by the coupled soil moisture and surface temperature prediction model, BARESOIL, using in situ data. A sensitivity analysis was made using two sets of data derived from the volumetric soil moisture content of the top soil layer. One with values below the wilting point (0.17 m³m^–3) and the second with values above 0.20m³m^–3. Data sets were obtained at the experimental site Rimski anevi, Yugoslavia, from the bare surface of a chernozem soil.With 4 Figures     

Northern hemisphere atmospheric response to changes of atlantic ocean SST on decadal time scales: a GCM experiment

Analyses indicate that the Atlantic Ocean seasurface temperature (SST) was considerably colder at the beginning than in the middle of the century. In parallel, a systematic change in the North Atlantic sea-level pressure (SLP) pattern was observed. To find out whether the SST and SLP changes analyzed are consistent, which would indicate that the SST change was real and not an instrumental artifact, a response experiment with a low-resolution (T21) atmospheric GCM was performed. Two perpetual January simulations were conducted, which differ solely in the Atlantic Ocean (40° S-60° N) SST: the cold simulation utilizes the SSTs for the period 1904–1913; the warm simulation uses the SSTs for the period 1951–1960. Also, a control run with the model's standard SST somewhat between the cold and warm SST was made. For the response analysis, a rigorous statistical approach was taken. First, the null hypothesis of identical horizontal distributions was subjected to a multivariate significance test. Second, the level of recurrence was estimated. The multivariate statistical approaches are based on hierarchies of test models. We examined three different hierarchies: a scale-dependent hierarchy based on spherical harmonics (S), and two physically motivated ones, one based on the barotropic normal modes of the mean 300 hPa flow (B) and one based on the eigenmodes of the advection diffusion operator at 1000 hPa (A). The intercomparison of the cold and warm experiments indicates a signal in the geostrophic stream function that in the S-hierarchy is significantly nonzero and highly recurrent. In the A-hierarchy, the low level temperature field is identified as being significantly and recurrently affected by the altered SST distribution. The SLP signal is reasonably similar to the SLP change observed. Unexpectedly, the upper level stream-function signal does not appear to be significantly nonzero in the B-hierarchy. If, however, the pairs of experiments warm versus control and cold versus control are examined in the B-hierarchy, a highly significant and recurrent signal emerges. We conclude that the cold versus warm response is not a small disturbance that would allow the signal to be described by eigenmodes of the linear system. An analysis of the three-dimensional structure of the signal leads to the hypothesis that two different mechanisms are acting to modify the model's mean state. At low levels, local heating and advection are dominant, but at upper levels the extratropical signal is a remote responce to modifications of the tropical convection.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dilmenil.AWI Publication no. 254     

An observational aircraft-based study of sea-breeze frontogenesis

In the summer of 1988/89 flights were carried out in the Coorong coastal area of South Australia to investigate sea-breeze fronts. The flights yielded data sets of the structure of the fronts in the cross-frontal direction with a spatial resolution of approximately 3 m. The study is focused on the budgets of sensible and latent heat in the vicinity of the front and on frontogenesis/frontolysis processes which are closely related to budget considerations.The frontogenesis relationships and the budgets were established on a 2 km length scale by low-pass filtering of the space series. As the wind components were measured with high accuracy, all processes which determine frontogenesis could be evaluated and are displayed in x,z-cross-sections: these are the confluence, shear and diabatic effects, all of which play a role in q/x-, q/z-, /x- as well as /z-frontogenesis. A detailed analysis is given for two different states of frontal development. The presented results shed much light on the governing physical processes in the frontal region with strong emphasis on the effects of confluence-generated updrafts, on shear instabilities causing bulges and clefts in the frontal surface as well as producing the elevated frontal head, and on processes related to differential heating and moistening.     

Bistability of the thermohaline circulation identified through comprehensive 2-parameter sweeps of an efficient climate model

The effect of changes in zonal and meridional atmospheric moisture transports on Atlantic overturning is investigated. Zonal transports are considered in terms of net moisture export from the Atlantic sector. Meridional transports are related to the vigour of the global hydrological cycle. The equilibrium thermohaline circulation (THC) simulated with an efficient climate model is strongly dependent on two key parameters that control these transports: an anomaly in the specified Atlantic–Pacific moisture flux (F_a) and atmospheric moisture diffusivity (K_q). In a large ensemble of spinup experiments, the values of F_a and K_q are varied by small increments across wide ranges, to identify sharp transitions of equilibrium THC strength in a 2-parameter space (between Conveyor On and Off states). Final states from this ensemble of simulations are then used as the initial states for further such ensembles. Large differences in THC strength between ensembles, for identical combinations of F_a and K_q, reveal the co-existence of two stable THC states (Conveyor On and Off)—i.e. a bistable regime. In further sensitivity experiments, the model is forced with small, temporary freshwater perturbations to the mid-latitude North Atlantic, to establish the minimum perturbation necessary for irreversible THC collapse in this bistable regime. A threshold is identified in terms of the forcing duration required. The model THC, in a Conveyor On state, irreversibly collapses to a Conveyor Off state under additional freshwater forcing of just 0.1 Sv applied for around 100 years. The irreversible collapse is primarily due to a positive feedback associated with suppressed convection and reduced surface heat loss in the sinking region. Increased atmosphere-to-ocean freshwater flux, under a collapsed Conveyor, plays a secondary role.     

The validation of various schemes for parameterizing evaporation from bare soil for use in meteorological models: A numerical study using in situ data

Parameterization of evaporation from a non-plant-covered surface is very important in the hierarchy strategy of modelling land surface processes. One of the representations frequently used in its computation is the resistance formulation. The performance of the evaporation schemes using the , , and their combination resistance approaches to parameterize evaporation from bare soil surfaces is discussed. For that purpose, the nine schemes, based on a different dependence of and on volumetric soil moisture content and its saturated value, are used.The tests of performances of the considered schemes are based on time integrations by the land surface module (BARESOIL) using observed data. The 23 data sets at a bare surface experimental site in Rimski anevi, Yugoslavia on chernozem soil, were used for the resistance algorithm evaluation. The quality of the schemes was compared with the observed values of the latent heat flux using several statistical parameters.