Future projection of East China Sea temperature by dynamic downscaling of the IPCC_AR4 CCSM3 model result

Future temperature distributions of the marginal Chinese seas are studied by dynamic downscaling of global CCSM3 IPCC_AR4 scenario runs.Different forcing fields from 2080-2099 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) B1,A1,and A2 to 1980-1999 20C3M are averaged and superimposed on CORE2 and SODA2.2.4 data to force high-resolution regional future simulations using the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS).Volume transport increments in downscaling simulation support the CCSM3 result that with a weakening subtropical gyre circulation,the Kuroshio Current in the East China Sea(ECS) is possibly strengthened under the global warming scheme.This mostly relates to local wind change,whereby the summer monsoon is strengthened and winter monsoon weakened.Future temperature fluxes and their seasonal variations are larger than in the CCSM3 result.Downscaling 100 years’ temperature increments are comparable to the CCSM3,with a minimum in B1 scenario of 1.2-2.0°C and a maximum in A2 scenario of 2.5-4.5°C.More detailed temperature distributions are shown in the downscaling simulation.Larger increments are in the Bohai Sea and middle Yellow Sea,and smaller increments near the southeast coast of China,west coast of Korea,and southern ECS.There is a reduction of advective heat north of Taiwan Island and west of Tsushima in summer,and along the southern part of the Yellow Sea warm current in winter.There is enhancement of advective heat in the northern Yellow Sea in winter,related to the delicate temperature increment distribution.At 50 meter depth,the Yellow Sea cold water mass is destroyed.Our simulations suggest that in the formation season of the cold water mass,regional temperature is higher in the future and the water remains at the bottom until next summer.In summer,the mixed layer is deeper,making it much easier for the strengthened surface heat flux to penetrate to the bottom of this water.     

The modeled atmospheric and oceanic response to the South China Sea SST anomaly

The sensitivity of the global atmospheric and oceanic response to sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) throughout the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated using the Fast Ocean-Atmosphere Model (FOAM). Forced by a warming SST, the experiment explicitly demonstrates that the responses of surface air temperature (SAT) and SST exhibit positive anomalous center over SCS and negative anomalous center over the Northern Pacific Ocean (NPO). The atmospheric response to the warm SST anomalies is characterized by a barotropical anomaly in middle-latitude, leading to a weak subtropical high in summer and a weak Aleutian low in winter. Accordingly, Indian monsoon and eastern Asian monsoon strengthen in summer but weaken in winter as a result of wind convergence owing to the warm SST. It is worth noting that the abnormal signals propagate poleward and eastward away in the form of Rossby Waves from the forcing region, which induces high pressure anomaly. Owing to action of the wind-driven circulation, an anomalous anti-cyclonic circulation is induced with a primary southward current in the upper ocean. An obvious cooling appears over the North Pacific, which can be explained by anomalous meridional cold advection and mixing as shown in the analysises of heat budget and other factors that affect SST.     

Numerical Study on Density Residual Currents of the Bohai Sea in Summer

M2 tide and density residual currents in the Bohai Sea were examined using the Blumberg and Mellor 3D nonlinear numerical coastal circulation model incorporating,Mellor and Yamada level 2.5 turbulent closure model.The tidal results showed good agreement with previous work.The model results indicated that the density residual currents are robust in summer;and that at the transition zone between well-mixed and stratified water,the horizontal velocity is high and the vertical velocity is positive.     

Distribution of Different Biogeographical Tintinnids in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea

There were different biogeographical tintinnids in the oceans. Knowledge of their distribution pattern and mixing was important to the understanding of ecosystem functions. Yellow Sea (YS) and Bohai Sea (BS) were semi-enclosed seas influenced by warm water intrusion and YS cold bottom water. The occurrence of tintinnids in YS and BS during two cruises (summer and winter) were investigated to find out: i) whether warm-water tintinnids appeared in YS and BS; ii) whether boreal tintinnids appeared in high summer; iii) the core area of neritic tintinnids and iv) how these different biogeographical tintinnids mixed. Our results showed that tintinnid community was dominated by neritic tintinnid. We confirmed the occurrence of warm-water tintinnids in summer and winter. In summer, they intruded into BS and mainly distributed in the upper 20 m where Yellow Sea Surface Warm Water (YSSWW) developed. In winter, they were limited in the surface water of central deep region (bottom depth >50 m) of YS where were affected by Yellow Sea Warm Water (YSWW). Boreal tintinnids occurred in YS in high summer (August) and in winter, while they were not observed in BS. In summer, the highest abundance of boreal tintinnids occurred in Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water, indicating the presence of an oversummering stock. In winter, they were concentrated in the north of YSWW. Vertically, neritic tintinnids abundance was high in the bottom layers. Horizontally, high neritic tintinnids abundance in bottom layers occurred along the 50 m isobath coinciding with the position of front systems. Front systems were the core distribution area of neritic tintinnids. High abundance areas of warm-water and boreal tintinnids were clearly separated vertically in summer, and horizontally in winter. High abundance of neritic tintinnids rarely overlapped with that of warm-water or boreal tintinnids.     

Seasonal variation of the barrier layer in the PN section

In this paper, we use the conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) observation data and a three-dimensional ocean model in a seasonally-varying forcing field to study the barrier layer (BL) in the PN section in the East China Sea (ECS). The BL can be found along the PN section with obviously seasonal variability. In winter, spring and autumn, the BL occurs around the slope where the cold shelf water meets with the warm Kuroshio water. In summer, the BL can also be found in the shelf area near salinity front of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Dilution Water (YRDW). Seasonal variations of BL in the PN section are caused by local hydrological characteristics and seasonal variations of atmospheric forcing. Strong vertical convection caused by sea surface cooling thickens the BL in winter and spring in the slope area. Due to the large discharge of Changjiang River in summer, the BL occurs extensively in the shelf region where the fresh YRDW and the salty bottom water meet and form a strong halocline above the seasonal thermocline. The formation mechanism of BL in the PN section can be explained by the vertical shear of different water masses, which is called the advection mechanism. The interannual variation of BL in summer is greatly affected by the YRDW. In the larger YRDW year (such as 1998), a shallow but much thicker BL existed on the shelf area. Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, No. 2005CB422303 and 2007CB411804), the Key Project of the International Science and Technology Cooperation Program of China (No. 2006DFB21250), the “111 Project” of the Ministry of Education (No. B07036), the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University, China (No. NECT-07-0781)     

Comprehensive analysis of the origin of giant jellyfish near Qinhuangdao in summer

A massive bloom of the giant jellyfi sh Nemopilema nomurai occurred in waters off Qinhuangdao,a port city in Hebei Province,in July 2013.However,jellyfi sh larvae were not found in this location during the previous winter and spring.To determine the possible origin of the giant jellyfi sh medusa in the Bohai Sea,we developed a backward particle-tracking model and a series of numerical simulations were conducted by using the hydrodynamic,three-dimensional Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS)results.The simulated results showed that passive particles,representing jellyfi sh medusae,released in surface waters at diff erent dates during the summer had consistent trajectories.Particles released at the sea surface on August1 and 15 could be traced back to the center of the Bohai Sea and to waters between Feiyan Shoal and the new Huanghe(Yellow)River estuary.Particles released on July 1 and 15 could also be traced back to the center of the Bohai Sea and to waters between Feiyan Shoal and only to Zhuangxi tide station.However,none of the particles released in the middle and bottom water layers could be traced back to those areas.Based on the results of the numerical simulations,the distribution characteristics of seafl oor sediments,and observational data for giant jellyfi sh in the region,we suggest that waters between Feiyan Shoal and the new Huanghe River estuary are the likely origin of giant jellyfi sh observed near Qinhuangdao in summer.     

Estimates of reynolds stress and TKE production in the seasonally stratified East China Sea

During the two cruises in March and July of 2011, the tidal cycling of turbulent properties and the T/S profiles at the same location in seasonally stratified East China Sea (ECS) were measured synchronously by a bottom-mounted fast sampling ADCP (acoustic Doppler current profiler) and a RBR CTD (RBR-620) profiler. While focusing on the tide-induced and stratification’s impact on mixing, the Reynolds stress and the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) production rate were calculated using the ‘variance method’. In spring, the features of mixing mainly induced by tides were clear when the water column was well-mixed. Velocity shear and turbulent parameters intensified towards the seabed due to the bottom friction. The components of the velocity shear and the Reynolds stress displayed a dominant semi-diurnal variation related to velocity changes caused by the flood and ebb of M₂ tide. Stratification occurred in summer, and the water column showed a strongly stratified pycnocline with a characteristic squared buoyancy frequency of N² ～ (1–6) × 10^?3 s^?2. The components of the velocity shear and the Reynolds stress penetrated upwards very fast from the bottom boundary layer to the whole water column in spring, while in summer they only penetrated to the bottom of the pycnocline with a relatively slow propagation speed. In summer, the TKE production within the pycnocline was comparable with and sometimes larger than that in the well-mixed bottom layer under the pycnocline. Considering the associated high velocity shear, it is speculated that the mixing in the pycnocline is a result of the local velocity shear.     

Long-term variability of the sharp thermocline in the Yellow and East China Seas

Based on observed temperature data since the 1950s, long-term variability of the summer sharp thermocline in the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (YSCWM) and East China Sea Cold Eddy (ECSCE) areas is examined. Relationships between the thermocline and atmospheric and oceanic forcing were investigated using multiyear wind, Kuroshio discharge and air temperature data. Results show that: 1) In the YSCWM area, thermocline strength shows about 4-year and 16-year period oscillations. There is high correlation between summer thermocline strength and local atmospheric temperature in summer and the previous winter; 2) In the ECSCE area, interannual oscillation of thermocline strength with about a 4-year period (stronger in El Ni o years) is strongly correlated with that of local wind stress. A transition from weak to strong thermocline during the mid 1970s is consistent with a 1976/1977 climate shift and Kuroshio volume transport; 3) Long-term changes of the thermocline in both regions are mainly determined by deep layer water, especially on the decadal timescale. However, surface water can modify the thermocline on an interannual timescale in the YSCWM area.     

SST INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION AND ATMOSPHERIC FORCING SYSTEM OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

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The observed currents in summer in the Bohai Sea

A harmonic method was used to analyze the tidal currents observed in summer at 11 stations made from 1996 to 2001 in the Bohai Sea, China. Data was compared among different instruments and intervals. Elliptic elements were calculated based on harmonic constants, of which vertical distributions of the maximum speed and rotation direction were discussed for understanding the characteristics of diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal current components. The results indicate that the maximum speed of M2 tidal current component is much larger than that of K1; the rotation direction of M2 tidal current constituent is clockwise in the central part of the Bohai Sea and in the Laizhou Bay, but anticlockwise in the Liaodong Bay and Bohai Bay. For K1 tidal current constituent, it is clockwise in the central Bohai Sea but anti-clockwise in the Laizhou Bay and Liaodong Bay. The tidal currents in most stations in the Bohai Sea were regular semidiurnal except for those in the central Bohai Sea, being irregular semidiurnal.     

改进DINEOF算法在中国渤海叶绿素a遥感缺失数据重构中的应用研究

叶绿素a（chl-a）是重要的海洋环境水色参数,但是受云雾覆盖的影响,卫星遥感chl-a产品中普遍存在数据缺失的现象,大大降低了数据的应用效果。经验正交函数插值方法（DINEOF）是目前在长时间序列缺失数据重构方面应用最广泛的数据插值重构方法,本研究针对DINEOF方法在空间小尺度上过度平滑的缺陷,设计了一种面向渤海chl-a的分层重构方法（SDS-DINEOF）,该方法重点考虑了渤海chl-a分布呈现近岸高、中部低的规律,将渤海海域等距离分为32个区域,对位于每个区域的子数据集分别进行重构;利用该方法对2019年全年每日10时13分的渤海GOCI卫星chl-a产品进行了重构,并将其重构结果与DINEOF重构结果进行了对比分析。分析结果表明：应用SDS-DINEOF方法相比DINEOF方法,chl-a重构精度和时间效率上均得到了提升,其中整体精度提高了3.52%,重构时间节约了125%,尤其是在距离陆地最远的渤海中部区域,应用该方法重构精度提升最为显著。本文取得的研究结果对于海洋遥感数据产品的质量提高和应用效率的提升,具有较为重要的理论意义和实际应用价值。     

The role of Pacific water in the dramatic retreat of arctic sea ice during summer 2007

A model study is conducted to examine the role of Pacific water in the dramatic retreat of arctic sea ice during summer 2007. The model generally agrees with the observations in showing considerable seasonal and interannual variability of the Pacific water inflow at Bering Strait in response to changes in atmospheric circulation. During summer 2007 anomalously strong southerly winds over the PaCific sector of the Arctic Ocean strengthen the ocean circulation and bring more Pacific water into the Arctic than the recent （2000-2006） average. The simulated summer （3 months ） 2007 mean Pacific water inflow at Bering Strait is 1.2 Sv, which is the highest in the past three decades of the simulation and is 20% higher than the recent average. Particularly, the Pacific water inflow in September 2007 is about 0.5 Sv or 50% above the 2000-2006 average. The strengthened warm Pacific water inflow carries an additional 1.0 x 1020 Joules of heat into the Arctic, enough to melt an additional 0.5 m of ice over the whole Chukchi Sea. In the model the extra summer oceanic heat brought in by the Pacific water mainly stays in the Chukchi and Beaufort region, contributing to the warming of surface waters in that region. The heat is in constant contact with the ice cover in the region in July through September. Thus the Pacific water plays a role in ice melting in the Chukchi and Beaufort region all summer long in 2007, likely contributing to up to O. 5 m per month additional ice melting in some area of that region.     

Impact of tropical cyclone Matmo on mixed zone of the Yellow and Bohai Seas

The Bohai Sea is a low-lying semi-enclosed sea area that is linked to the Yellow Sea via the Bohai straits(mixed zone). Its of fshore seabed is shallow, which makes it vulnerable to serious marine meteorological disasters associated with the northward passage of Pacific tropical cyclones. Analyses on data of remote sensing and buoy of the mixed zone of the Yellow and Bohai seas indicate that all the wind speed, significant wave height, and salinity(SAL) increased, sea surface temperature decreased, and wind energy density changed considerably during the passage of tropical cyclone Matmo on July 25, 2014. It was found that the SAL inversion layer in the mixed zone of the Yellow and Bohai Seas was caused by the tropical cyclone. Furthermore, it was found that the tropical cyclone transported the northern Yellow Sea cold water mass(NYSCWM) into the mixed zone of the Yellow and Bohai Seas. The NYSCWM has direct influence on both the aquaculture and the ecological environment of the region. Therefore, further research is needed to establish the mechanism behind the formation of the SAL inversion layer in the mixed zone, and to determine the influence of tropical cyclones on the NYSCWM.     

NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE TIDAL FRONT IN THE WESTERN YELLOW SEA

The formation and evolution of the tidal front in the western Yellow Sea are studied by means of a two-dimensional model in which wind and tide mixing, sun radiation and wind stress, and realistic topography are incorporated. In this numerical study, the schemes employed are stable for time step t= 900 s, so the model can be run for 4 months to simulate the front evolution. The authors examined the effects of mixing and atmospheric forcing on the tidal front under conditions of : mixing and solar heating without wind stress on the sea surface; mixing, solar heating and 50 hours of wind stress; mixing, solar heating and long time periodical wind stress, Results show that (1) the tidal front forms at the beginning of May, and strengthens with the increasing of heat input, (2) the temperature structure in the shallow well-mixed water is dominated by mixing, while in the front and deeper stratified regions, it is controlled by the joint effects of (mainly) mixing and advection, 0) the currents and front all     

Interpretation of sea surface wind interannual vector EOFs over the China seas

Using interpolation and averaging methods, we analyzed the sea surface wind data obtained from December 1992 to November 2008 by the scatterometers ERS-1, ERS-2, and QuikSCAT in the area of 2°N–39 °N, 105°E–130°E, and we reported the monthly mean distributions of the sea surface wind field. A vector empirical orthogonal function (VEOF) method was employed to study the data and three temporal and spatial patterns were obtained. The first interannual VEOF accounts for 26% of the interannual variance and displays the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon. The second interannual VEOF accounts for 21% of the variance and reflects the response of China sea winds to El Niño events. The temporal mode of VEOF-2 is in good agreement with the curve of the Niño 3.4 index with a four-month lag. The spatial mode of VEOF-2 indicates that four months after an El Niño event, the southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can weaken the prevailing winds in winter, and can strengthen the prevailing winds in summer. The third interannual VEOF accounts for 10% of the variance and also reflects the influence of the ENSO events to China Sea winds. The temporal mode of VEOF-3 is similar to the curve of the Southern Oscillation Index. The spatial mode of VEOF-3 shows that the northeasterly anomalous winds over the South China Sea and the southern part of the East China Sea can weaken the prevailing winds, and southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern part of the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can strengthen the prevailing winds when El Niño occurs in winter. If El Niño happens in summer, the reverse is true.     

Influences of two types of El Ni?o event on the Northwest Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies

Based on the Had ISST1 and NCEP datasets,we investigated the influences of the central Pacific El Ni?o event(CP-EL)and eastern Pacific El Ni?o event(EP-EL)on the Sea Surface Temperature(SST)anomalies of the Tropical Indian Ocean.Considering the remote ef fect of Indian Ocean warming,we also discussed the anticyclone anomalies over the Northwest Pacific,which is very important for the South China precipitation and East Asian climate.Results show that during the El Ni?o developing year of EP-EL,cold SST anomalies appear and intensify in the east of tropical Indian Ocean.At the end of that autumn,all the cold SST anomaly events lead to the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)events.Basin uniform warm SST anomalies exist in the Indian Ocean in the whole summer of EL decaying year for both CP-and EP-ELs.However,considering the statistical significance,more significant warm SST anomalies only appear in the North Indian Ocean among the June and August of EP-EL decaying year.For further research,EP-EL accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming(EPI-EL)and CP El Ni?o accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming(CPI-EL)events are classified.With the remote ef fects of Indian Ocean SST anomalies,the EPI-and CPI-ELs contribute quite differently to the Northwest Pacific.For the EPI-EL developing year,large-scale warm SST anomalies arise in the North Indian Ocean in May,and persist to the autumn of the El Ni?o decaying year.However,for the CPI-EL,weak warm SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean maintain to the El Ni?o decaying spring.Because of these different SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean,distinct zonal SST gradient,atmospheric anticyclone and precipitation anomalies emerge over the Northwest Pacific in the El Ni?o decaying years.Specifically,the large-scale North Indian Ocean warm SST anomalies during the EPI-EL decaying years,can persist to summer and force anomalous updrafts and rainfall over the North Indian Ocean.The atmospheric heating caused by this precipitation anomaly emulates atmospheric Kelvin waves accompanied by low level easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific.As a result,a zonal SST gradient with a warm anomaly in the west and a cold anomaly in the east of Northwest Pacific is generated locally.Furthermore,the atmospheric anticyclone and precipitation anomalies over the Northwest Pacific are strengthened again in the decaying summer of EPI-EL.Af fected by the local WindEvaporation-SST(WES)positive feedback,the suppressed East Asian summer rainfall then persists to the late autumn during EPI-EL decaying year,which is much longer than that of CPI-EL.     

Interannual variations of surface winds over China marginal seas

In a study of surface monsoon winds over the China marginal seas, Sun et al. (2012) use singular value decomposition method to identify regional dominant modes and analyze their interdecadal variability. This paper continues to evaluate the interannual variability of each dominant mode and its relation to various atmospheric, oceanic and land factors. The findings include: 1) The intensity of the winter monsoon over the East China Sea is highly correlated with the Siberian High intensity and anti-correlated with the latitudinal position of the Aleutian Low as well as the rainfall in eastern China, Korean Peninsula and Japan; 2) The western Pacific subtropical high is significantly correlated with the summer monsoon intensity over the East China Sea and anti-correlated with the summer monsoon over the South China Sea; 3) The winter monsoon in a broad zonal belt through the Luzon Strait is dominated by the ENSO signal, strengthening in the La Ni a phase and weakening in the El Ni o phase. This inverse relation exhibits interdecadal shift with a period of weak correlation in the 1980s; 4) Analysis of tidal records validates the interdecadal weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon and reveals an atmospheric bridge that conveys the ENSO signal into the South China Sea via the winter monsoon.     

MASS BALANCES OF MAJOR CHEMICAL CONSTITUENTS IN BOHAI SEA WATER Ⅱ.REMOVAL PROCESSES

The removal processes of major seawater chemical constituents in the Bohai Sea include seawater ex-change between the Bohai Sea and the Northern Yellow Sea,cation exchange,interstitial water burialand spray,formation of illite,sepiolite,sulfate and sulfur,and carbonates.The mass balance calculationbased on these processes is very applicable to the Bohai Sea.     

The Structure and Formation Mechanism of a Sea Fog Event over the Yellow Sea

In this paper, a heavy sea fog event occurring over the Yellow Sea on 11 April 2004 was investigated based upon observational and modeling analyses. From the observational analyses, this sea fog event is a typical advection cooling case. Sea surface temperature(SST) and specific humidity(SH) show strong gradients from south to north, in which warm water is located in the south and consequently, moisture is larger in the south than in the north due to evaporation processes. After fog formation, evaporation process provides more moisture into the air and further contributes to fog evolution. The sea fog event was reproduced by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System(RAMS) reasonably. The roles of important physical processes such as radiation, turbulence as well as atmospheric stratification in sea fog’s structure and its formation mechanisms were analyzed using the model results. The roles of long wave radiation cooling, turbulence as well as atmospheric stratification were analyzed based on the modeling results. It is found that the long wave radiative cooling at the fog top plays an important role in cooling down the fog layer through turbulence mixing. The fog top cooling can overpower warming from the surface. Sea fog develops upward with the aid of turbulence. The buoyancy term, i.e., the unstable layer, contributes to the generation of TKE in the fog region. However, the temperature inversion layer prevents fog from growing upward.     

A numerical study of the effects of coastal geometry in the Bohai Sea on storm surges induced by cold-air outbreaks

Strom surges are not only determined by the atmospheric forcing,but also influenced by the coastal geometry and bathymetry.The Bohai Sea,as one of China’s marginal seas,is seriously harmed by storm surges,especially those caused by cold-air outbreaks.As the coastline of the Bohai Sea has changed evidently these years,storm surges may have new characteristics due to the changes in the local geometry.This paper aims to find out these new characteristics by primarily investigating the influence of the changes in the local geometry on storm surges with numerical methods.20 scenarios were constructed based on the track and inten-sity of the cold-air outbreaks to describe the actual situation.By analyzing the model results of the control scenarios,it is found that the main changes of the maximum surge elevation occur in the Bohai Bay and the Laizhou Bay.At the top of the Bohai Bay,the maximum surge elevation is obviously decreased,while in the Laizhou Bay,it is enhanced by the growing Yellow River Delta.This,however,does not suggest that the storm surges in the Laizhou Bay become more serious.A comparison of the risk assessment of storm surges in the Tanggu,Huanghua and Yangjiaogou regions shows that the risk of storm surges in these coastal areas is lightened by the evolvement of the coastal geometry.Particularly near Yangjiaogou,though the maximum surge elevation becomes higher to subject more areas to risk,the risk is still reduced by the evolvement of the Yellow River Delta.