基于MOD16产品的我国2001-2010年蒸散发时空格局变化分析

蒸散发的时空格局分析对理解气候变化与水资源之间的相互影响具有重要的作用。本文基于MODIS全球蒸散发产品(MOD16),分析了2001-2010年我国陆面蒸散发的时空格局变化,得出以下结论：(1)站点尺度和流域尺度的精度验证结果表明,MOD16产品对于我国森林、农田生态系统类型,以及辽河、海河、黄河和淮河流域的模拟精度较高;(2)2001-2010年,我国年均蒸散发为532±10 mm,年内蒸散值变化最大的是东北区,月均蒸散变异系数为0.87,而西北区变化幅度最小,变异系数为0.19;(3)2001-2010年,我国陆面蒸散发年际变化总的趋势不明显,占陆地面积11.2%区域的蒸散发呈显著减少趋势(p<0.05),主要分布在青藏高原中部,内蒙古中东部地区及新疆北部,只有2.3%的区域的蒸散发增加趋势显著,(p<0.05),主要分布在黄土高原地区、黄淮海平原及东北平原;(4)通过对比干旱指数变化趋势、植被指数变化趋势图可以看出,蒸散发显著减少的区域主要分布于干旱加剧的半干旱地区,而蒸散发显著增加的区域主要位于植被变好的地区。     

Water Requirements and Irrigation Scheduling of Spring Maize Using GIS and CropWat Model in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Due to the over use of available water resources, it has become very important to define appropriate strategies for planning and management of irrigated farmland. In this paper, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) region was chosen as the case study area for its special political and economic status and its severe water problem. To achieve effective planning, the information about crop water requirements, irrigation withdrawals, soil types and climatic conditions were obtained in the study area. In the meantime, a GIS method was adopted, which extends the capabilities of the crop models to a regional level. The main objectives of the study are: 1) to estimate the spatial distribution of the evapotranspiration of spring maize; 2) to estimate climatic water deficit; 3) to estimate the yield reduction of spring maize under different rainfed and irrigated conditions. Based on the water deficit analysis, recommended supplemental irrigation schedule was developed using CropWat model. Compared to the rainfed control, the two or three times of supplemental water irrigated to spring maize at the right time reduced the loss of yield, under different scenarios.     

The evolution of tea spatial agglomeration in China: An analysis based on different geographical scales

The spatial agglomeration of agricultural production is conducive to reducing planting costs, increasing production efficiency and improving product quality. It is an important way to promote the transformation and upgrad of tea industry and realize the modernization of China’s tea industry. This study used Gini coefficient and spatial autocorrelation analysis to explore the characteristics of tea spatial agglomeration in China from three geographical scales: regional level, provincial level and prefecture level from the year 2005 to 2015. The results indicated that there was a significant scale effect on the tea spatial agglomeration. The agglomeration degree increased from the regional level, provincial level to prefecture level. The types of spatial agglomeration evolution of the three scales were Ushaped, continuous diffusion, and continuous agglomeration. The spatial autocorrelation of tea production could only be found at the prefecture level. Meanwhile, at the prefecture scale, we could not only reveal the pattern changes at the regional and provincial levels, but also identify tea production agglomeration regions. Compared with the large scale, the small scale could reveal the characteristics of tea spatial agglomeration in more details. Factors such as natural resource endowments, cost factor, technological advancement, agglomeration economy, and agricultural policy influenced the evolution of tea spatial agglomeration from different geographical scales. Finally, from the perspectives of spatial transfer of tea production, promoting spatial agglomeration, building tea production bases, and breaking administrative boundaries, we proposed several policy suggestions for optimizing the spatial layout of tea production.     

中国城市规模体系及其空间格局Zipf-PLE模型的评价

近30 a来,中国城市规模体系发生了重大变化,突出表现在人口城市化、用地城市化和经济城市化方面。利用GIS平台,综合城市常住人口、建成区面积和经济总量等因素构建Zipf-PLE模型,以全国县级以上城市为研究对象,对中国城市规模体系的空间格局进行了深入研究。结果显示：（1）2010年,中国城市规模体系等级健全且成熟,呈现“中间略大、底端偏小”的较为合理的金字塔格局。其中,西部地区城市规模体系结构最为合理,呈现出“底端大,顶端小”的金字塔格局;东部地区城市体系等级比较健全,中等城市最多,呈现“中间大,两端小”的金字塔格局;中部地区城市体系等级不全,超大城市缺失,呈现“中底端大,顶端小”的金字塔格局。（2）中国省域城市规模体系是合理的,中等合理以上的省份占90.32%。除直辖市外,全国27个省份中有8个省份城市规模体系趋于分散,19个省份趋于集中。（3）对全国省域城市规模体系进行合理度分区,京、沪、津、渝、新、黑、桂、陕、甘、闽、吉11省市为高合理区;粤、晋、云、湘、贵、辽、赣、苏、浙、川、冀、豫12个省（区）为较高合理区;鄂、鲁、皖为中等合理区;琼、蒙、宁为低合理省区;青、藏为不合理省（区）。     

THE BALANCE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF WATER RESOURCES AND THE WATER—SAVING POTENTIAL FOR AGRICULTURE IN THE HEXI CORRIDOR

The Hexi Corridor is an important base of agriculture development in Northwest China. According to recent statistics, there are 65.94×10⁸m³ of water resources available in the Hexi Corridor. At present, net consumption in development and utilization is 43.33×10⁸m³. Water supply and demand reach a balance on the recent level of production, but loss of evaporation and evapotranspiration is as much as 25.69×10⁸m³. So net use efficiency of water resources is 59%. Based on analyzing balance between water and land considering ecological environment at present, there exists the serious water shortage in the Shiyang River system where irrigation lands have overloaded. There is a comparative balance between supply and demand of water resource in the Heihe River system; and the Sule River system has some surplus water to extend irrigation land. Use of agriculture water accounts for 83.3% and ecological forest and grass for 6.9%. The Hexi Corridor still has a great potential for water saving in agriculture production. Water-saving efficiency of irrigation is about 10% by using such traditional technologies as furrow and border-dike irrigation and small check irrigation, and water-saving with plastic film cover and techniques of advanced sprinkler and drip/micro irrigation etc. cansave more than 60% of irrigated water. Incremental irrigation area for water-saving potential in the Hexi Corridor has been estimated as 56% – 197% to original irrigation area. So the second water sources can be developed from water saving agriculture in the Hexi Corridor under Development of the Western Part of China in large scale. This potential can be realized step by step through developing the water-saving measures, improving the ecological condition of oasis agriculture, and optimizing allocation of water resources in three river systems. Foundation item: Under the auspices of the Key innovation Project Engineering of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZcx-1-10-03) Biography: GAO Qian-zhao (1942 –), male, a native of Changzhou, Jiangsu, Professor and supervisor of Ph. D students. His research interests include hydrology and rational utilization of water resources in the arid zone.     

黑河中游地区作物用水效率比较及种植结构调整方向研究

黑河流域地处西北干旱区,水资源短缺是限制其中游绿洲农业发展、下游生态环境保护的首要原因。该流域的中游绿洲农业用水约占总用水量的80%,因此农业节水对流域发展至关重要。在干旱区绿洲农业节水探索中,众多学者主张通过节水技术来提高用水效率,而关于农业种植结构调整对农业节水影响的定量研究较少。本文采用2012年黑河流域蒸散发数据、土地利用数据、降水数据和农业经济统计数据,定量分析黑河中游主要作物需水特征和用水效率差异,尝试从调整作物种植结构角度为其绿洲农业节水提供依据。结果表明：(1)研究区4种主要作物中,玉米生长期需水量最大,其次为小麦、油菜和大麦;(2)考虑降水补给,发现大麦和油菜生长需水可很大程度上依赖降水,而小麦和玉米则需要灌溉,且玉米灌溉需水量远超小麦;(3)作物用水效率由高到低依次为大麦、油菜、小麦和玉米。从用水效率角度而言,考虑种植区位,在黑河中游适当扩大小麦种植规模更有利于提高中游农业用水效率。     

中国东北三省大豆虚拟水时空分异及其影响因素研究

水资源分布不均制约了地区农业生产。从虚拟水角度研究作物需水的时空变化特征及影响因素对提高水资源的合理配置与利用效率,缓解地区水资源短缺问题具有重要参考意义。本文基于Penman-Monteith模型和GIS地统计分析工具,从虚拟水视角分析1986-2012年东北大豆生长季内的需水量变化和虚拟水时空分异特征及其影响因素。结果表明：①1986-2012年,东北地区大豆生长季增温明显,平均风速下降显著,相对湿度整体下降,日照时数有增有减,气候暖干化趋势加剧。②东北大豆生长季内需水量西南多东北少,南部地区需水量减少而北部增加。平均风速的显著下降导致大豆需水量减少,其余气象因子变化均导致需水量增加,温度变化对需水量影响最大,相对贡献率为36.9%,其次为相对湿度、日照时数和平均风速。③大豆虚拟水的空间分布整体为西多东少,虚拟水变化以下降为主（80.6%站点）。虚拟水高值区集中于东北地区西部,向东虚拟水含量降低。气候变化导致了大豆需水量的增加,进而使虚拟水上升,大豆生产变化尤其是单产增长则使得虚拟水下降,气候变化对大豆虚拟水的影响抵消了部分大豆生产变化导致的虚拟水下降。因此,针对大豆虚拟水的时空分异特征,适当调整东北地区大豆的生产布局、选取如耐高温耐旱等大豆品种以及调整灌溉、施肥等田间管理措施等是气候变化背景下提高大豆水资源利用效率的有效适应措施。     

Assessment of sea water inundation along Daboo creek area in Indus Delta Region,Pakistan

Indus Deltaic Region (IDR) in Pakistan is an erosion vulnerable coast due to the high deep water wave energy. Livelihood of millions of people depends on the fisheries and mangrove forests in IDR. IDR consists of many creeks where Daboo is a major creek located at southeast of the largest city of Pakistan, Karachi. Unfortunately, there has been no detailed study to analyze the damages of sea water intrusion at a large temporal and spatial scale. Therefore, this study is designed to estimate the effects of sea water inundation based on changing sea water surface salinity and sea surface temperature (SST). Sea surface salinity and SST data from two different surveys in Daboo creek during 1986 and 2010 are analyzed to estimate the damages and extent of sea water intrusion. Mean salinity has increased 33.33% whereas mean SST decreased 13.79% from 1987 to 2010. Spatio-temporal analysis of creek area using LANDSAT 5 Thematic mapper (TM) data for the years 1987 and 2010 shows significant amount of erosion at macro scale. Creek area has increased approximately 9.93% (260.86 m² per year) which is roughly equal to 60 extensive sized shrimp farms. Further Land Use Land Cover (LULC) analyses for years 2001 and 2014 using LANDSAT 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) has indicated 42.3% decrease in cultivated land. Wet mud flats have spread out at the inner mouth of creek with enormous increase of 123.3%. Significant sea water intrusion has increased the area of barren land by 37.9%. This also resulted in overall decrease of 6.7% in area covered by mangroves. Therefore, this study recorded a significant evidence of sea water intrusion in IDR that has caused serious damages to community living in the area, economical losses. Additionally, it has also changed the environment by reducing creek biological productivity as reported by earlier studies over other regions of the world.     

Multiple Spatial Scale Analysis of the Niche Characteristics of the Rhododendron dauricum Plant Communities in Northeast China

This study aims to verify the concept of niches at multiple spatial scales in plant communities. To this end, we analyzed the niche characteristic of Rhododendron dauricum plant communities in Northeast China at three spatial scales. At the local scale, we calculated the Importance Value(IV) of species in five communities in the north of the Da Hinggan Mountains. At the intermediate scale, we examined five communities in their entirety, calculated the niche breadth of the species, and integrated niche overlap and interspecific association to analyze interspecific relationships. Further, the generalized additive model(GAM) was used to analyze the impact of topography and soil factors on niche characteristics. At the regional scale, we analyzed the geographical distribution of dominant species of R. dauricum plant communities in Northeast China and used principal component analysis(PCA) to analyze the impact of geographical and climate factors on species distribution. The results show that at the local scale, the IV of the species in each community varies widely. At the intermediate scale, species with a wide niche breadth tend to have a high value for IV. Larix gmelinii, Betula platyphylla, R. dauricum, Ledum palustre, and Vaccinium vitis-idaea had a relatively wide niche breadth and a high niche overlap, and the interspecific associations were almost all positive. Elevation and soil nutrients were the most dominant environmental factors. At the regional scale, species with a wide niche breadth tend to have a wide range of distribution, and temperature and precipitation were the most dominant environmental factors. This study suggests that the niche characteristics at three scales are both related and different. Niche characteristics at the local scale were various and labile, and niche characteristics at the intermediate and regional scales were relatively regular. These results show some degree of consistency with previous studies from an evolutionary perspective. The action mechanisms of these communities are related to differences in the dominant environmental factors. In addition, the integration of niche overlap and interspecific association determine interspecific relationships more accurately.     

.The Studies of Regional Water Circulation Patterns in the Yerqiang River Basin

Based on the characteristic of ＇one river one oasis＇ in the arid areas, the Yerqiang River Basin, which is the largest irrigated area of Xinjiang, is taken as an example in this paper, and the regional water circulation pattern is investigated through the analysis of 60 groups of isotope data in the basin. From the phreatic evaporation data analysis of different soils, we study the law of phreatic evaporation, complete the research of the main consumption path of the groundwater, and improve the assessment precision of water resources. The transformation mount of regional water resources are predicted by calculation, which provides a scientific basis for water resources assessment and allocation in arid regions, and offers a new method for the study of regional water circulation patterns.     

Spatiotemporal patterns of road network and road development priority in three parallel rivers region in Yunnan, China: An evaluation based on modified kernel distance estimate

Road network is a critical component of public infrastructure,and the supporting system of social and economic development.Based on a modified kernel density estimate(KDE)algorithm,this study evaluated the road service capacity provided by a road network composed of multi-level roads(i.e.national,provincial,county and rural roads),by taking account of the differences of effect extent and intensity for roads of different levels.Summarized at town scale,the population burden and the annual rural economic income of unit road service capacity were used as the surrogates of social and economic demands for road service.This method was applied to the road network of the Three Parallel River Region,the northwestern Yunnan Province,China to evaluate the development of road network in this region.In results,the total road length of this region in 2005 was 3.70×104km,and the length ratio between national,provincial,county and rural roads was 1∶2∶8∶47.From 1989 to 2005,the regional road service capacity increased by 13.1%,of which the contributions from the national,provincial,county and rural roads were 11.1%,19.4%,22.6%,and 67.8%,respectively,revealing the effect of′All Village Accessible′policy of road development in the mountainous regions in the last decade.The spatial patterns of population burden and economic requirement of unit road service suggested that the areas farther away from the national and provincial roads have higher road development priority(RDP).Based on the modified KDE model and the framework of RDP evaluation,this study provided a useful approach for developing an optimal plan of road development at regional scale.     

武汉城市圈土地利用时空变化及政策驱动因素分析

武汉城市圈是全国首批“两型社会”改革试验区之一,而且是中部崛起战略和长江经济带发展战略的重点区域。为了正确认识武汉城市圈土地利用时空变化特征,以及政策因素对土地利用变化的影响,本文基于2000、2005、2010和2015年4期武汉城市圈土地利用现状数据,结合GIS空间分析、数理统计、单一土地利用动态度、土地利用转移矩阵和综合土地利用动态度方法,对武汉城市圈2000-2015年以及3个5年期土地利用变化的总体特征、转化方向和区域差异特征进行研究,并分析政策因素对土地利用变化的驱动作用。结果表明：① 总体特征上,2000-2015年耕地、草地、林地和未利用地面积持续减少,建设用地和水域面积不断增多。② 变化方向上,2000-2015年以耕地、林地转化为建设用地和水域为主要特征,2000-2005年以耕地向水域和建设用地转化为主,2005-2010年以耕地向建设用地、水域,林地向建设用地转化为主,2010-2015年以耕地、林地和水域向建设用地转化为主。③ 区域时空差异上,综合土地利用动态度最大的区域集中在武汉城市圈的中部;从单一土地利用动态度看,耕地主要分布在武汉城市圈周边地区;建设用地主要集中在武汉城市圈中部;水域集中在武汉城市圈的仙桃市;林地主要在潜江市、云梦县;草地主要为英山县。④ 政策驱动因素分析上,中部崛起、两型社会、长江经济带发展战略等政策对土地利用变化具有重要影响。     

Relationship between soil and water conservation practices and soil conditions in low mountain and hilly region of Northeast China

The soil and water conservation practices of ecological restoration（ER）,fish scale pit（FP）,furrow and ridge tillage across the slope（FR）,shrub strips（SS）,and vegetation-covered ridge（VR） are characteristic of the Jixing small watershed of the low mountain and hilly region of Jilin Province,Northeast China. This study aims to elucidate the effects of soil and water conservation practices on soil conditions after the short-term implementation of practices. Soil samples were collected from five soil and water conservation sites（ER,FP,FR,SS,and VR） and two controls（BL and CT） to investigate their properties. To evaluate the influence of soil and water conservation practices on soil quality,an integrated quantitative index,soil quality index（QI）,was developed to compare the soil quality under the different soil and water conservation practices. The results show that not all soil and water conservation practices can improve the soil conditions and not all soil properties,especially soil organic carbon（SOC）,can be recovered under soil and water conservation practice in short-term. Moreover,the QI in the five soil and water conservation practices and two controls was in the following order： ER VR BL FR CT SS FP. ER exhibited a higher soil quality value on a slope scale. In the low mountain and hilly region of Northeast China,ER is a better choice than the conversion of farmlands to planted grasslands and woodlands early in the soil and water conservation program.     

Driving forces and their effects on water conservation services in forest ecosystems in China

Identifying the driving forces that cause changes in forest ecosystem services related to water conservation is essential for the design of interventions that could enhance positive impacts as well as minimizing negative impacts. In this study, we propose an assessment concept framework model for indirect-direct-ecosystem service (IN-DI-ESS) driving forces within this context and method for index construction that considers the selection of a robust and parsimonious variable set. Factor analysis was integrated into two-stage data envelopment analysis (TS-DEA) to determine the driving forces and their effects on water conservation services in forest ecosystems at the provincial scale in China. The results showed the following. 1) Ten indicators with factor scores more than 0.8 were selected as the minimum data set. Four indicators comprising population density, per capita gross domestic product, irrigation efficiency, and per capita food consumption were the indirect driving factors, and six indicators comprising precipitation, farmland into forestry or pasture, forest cover, habitat area, water footprint, and wood extraction were the direct driving forces. 2) Spearman’s rank correlation test was performed to compare the overall effectiveness in two periods: stage 1 and stage 2. The calculated coefficients were 0.245, 0.136, and 0.579, respectively, whereas the tabulated value was 0.562. This indicates that the driving forces obviously differed in terms of their contribution to the overall effectiveness and they caused changes in water conservation services in different stages. In terms of the variations in different driving force effects in the years 2000 and 2010, the overall, stage 1, and stage 2 variances were 0.020, 0.065, and 0.079 in 2000, respectively, and 0.018, 0.063, and 0.071 in 2010. This also indicates that heterogeneous driving force effects were obvious in the process during the same period. Identifying the driving forces that affect service changes and evaluating their efficiency have significant policy implications for the management of forest ecosystem services. Advanced effectiveness measures for weak regions could be improved in an appropriate manner. In this study, we showed that factor analysis coupled with TS-DEA based on the IN-DI-ESS framework can increase the parsimony of driving force indicators, as well as interpreting the interactions among indirect and direct driving forces with forest ecosystem water conservation services, and reducing the uncertainty related to the internal consistency during data selection.     

安徽省旅游发展空间错位的模型分析

旅游资源与旅游区位的地域差异是客观存在的,对区域旅游发展空间错位及其原因的分析可为促进区域旅游均衡发展提供科学依据。本文以安徽省16个地级市为研究单元,运用重力模型和二维组合矩阵,选取旅游收入、资源丰度和旅游区位作为评价指标,定量分析旅游发展空间错位关系,并利用ArcGIS软件将结果进行可视化表达。研究发现:安徽省旅游收入、资源丰度和旅游区位的重心分别处于(117.63°E,31.18°N)、(117.51°E,31.12°N)和(117.20°E,32.00°N),经度方向最大错位0.43°,最小0.12°,纬度方向最大错位0.88°,最小0.06°;与区域几何中心相比,旅游收入重心和资源丰度重心均向南偏移;从旅游收入-资源丰度、旅游收入-旅游区位的组合矩阵来看,呈错位和同步发展的城市均为8个。整体而言,安徽省旅游空间错位主要是因旅游区位和旅游资源的条件差异,四大旅游板块要结合自身的特点,发挥优势,挖掘潜力,通过采取不同的空间矫正策略达到区域旅游协同发展的目的。     

PRESENT SITUATION，FEATURE AND DEVELOPMENTAL IDEAS OF BORDER OPENING IN XINJIANG

ＰＲＥＳＥＮＴＳＩＴＵＡＴＩＯＮ，ＦＥＡＴＵＲＥＡＮＤＤＥＶＥＬＯＰＭＥＮＴＡＬ　ＩＤＥＡＳＯＦＢＯＲＤＥＲＯＰＥＮＩＮＧＩＮＸＩＮＪＩＡＮＧＸｉｅＸｉａｎｇｆａｎｇ（谢香方）；ＬｉＣｈｕｎｈｕａ（李春华）（ＸｉｎｊｉａｎｇＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅ...     

中国环境污染的区域联防方案

环境污染的区域性发展趋势要求污染治理从区域角度进行统筹规划,这与我国按照行政区域进行环境管理的现状存在矛盾。因此,迫切需要进行环境污染区域联防方面的研究。通过运用区域地理学、经济地理学的理论和研究成果,同时借鉴国内外相关案例,并结合我国自然环境、经济发展的区域差异,提出了区域性环保机构设置方案。该方案包括建立5个国家直属局和12个省级分局,这些区域性环保机构既考虑区域环境现状又兼顾未来发展趋势,能够对我国今后的环境保护管理改革提供资料。     

中国省域煤矿事故时空分异特征及影响因素研究

煤矿事故给国家和人民带来巨大的生命财产损失,科学把握煤矿事故发生的宏观规律及区域煤矿安全的影响因素有助于促进煤矿安全生产。本文尝试采用GIS空间分析方法开展区域煤矿事故的研究,基于空间自相关性、时空演化规律方法研究了2006-2015年中国省域煤矿事故的时空分异特点,并分析了省域煤矿安全的影响因素及相对风险度。主要结论：①中国各省区之间煤矿事故存在明显的空间自相关性,但随着各省区煤矿安全生产形势改善情况的不同,其自相关性在不断下降;②以空间重心转移曲线分析中国煤矿事故发生的时空演化规律,10年间煤矿事故空间重心向东北方向转移。③重特大事故频发的省区由于监管措施的有力执行往往具有较低的煤矿百万吨死亡率;平均煤矿生产能力低的省区具有较高的煤矿百万吨死亡率;④建立基于解释变量的贝叶斯空间模型,以煤炭百万吨死亡率为指标评估中国各省区煤矿事故相对风险度,中国煤矿安全生产相对危险度存在明显的空间分布规律且各省区差异较大,相对危险度较高的省区主要集中在南方地区,包括湖北、福建等,危险度较低的省区主要集中在中东部地区,包括山西、内蒙古等。     

鄱阳湖地区土地覆盖空间分布格局与景观特征分析

 鄱阳湖是我国第一大淡水湖,具有洪水调蓄、水源涵养等重要生态服务功能。掌握鄱阳湖地区土地覆盖的空间分布格局和规律,对于评价其环境保护和生态服务功能具有重要作用。本文利用环境卫星影像、2005年鄱阳湖地区土地覆盖数据,经遥感解译分析获取了鄱阳湖地区2010年土地覆盖现状数据及其空间分布格局图。研究表明:(1)采用2010年的环境星影像结合2005年土地覆盖数据,人工目视解译得到的2010年土地覆盖数据的精度为80.4%。(2)景观生态学、GIS及统计学的思想和方法可以为土地覆盖空间特征的定量分析提供技术支持。文中采用的斑块面积指数、斑块形状指数、不同土地覆盖类型的邻接指数,从不同角度反映了鄱阳湖地区土地覆盖的空间分布格局及景观特征。(3)景观指数能定量说明土地覆盖景观的形状、大小、数量和空间组合,能反映景观的生态环境特点、人类活动及社会经济状况。面积特征指数显示研究区农村聚落的离散度及破碎度最高;斑块形状指数反映出研究区水体形状趋于规则化,其受到人类的"围湖造田,围湖造地"及防洪工程建设的干扰。(4)不同土地覆盖类型的邻接指数能定量说明相邻类型在物质交换、结构与功能的相互影响及土地资源形成机制、演替过程等。水田与常绿阔叶林的邻接关系反映了人类"毁林开荒"活动对林地与水田演替关系的影响;水田与农村聚落的邻接关系,表明研究区耕地保护的重点是城镇及农村周边耕地的保护;城镇建设用地的邻接关系表明了人类生活所需的生活条件,为"移民建镇"工程提供了科学依据。分析认为:鄱阳湖地区是以耕地为主的农业区,并且有丰富的水资源及森林资源,但今后要重视农村土地的集约化利用、水资源保护、耕地资源保护和自然资源的合理开发利用。     

基于修正Green-Ampt模型的降雨诱发区域浅层斜坡失稳灾害分析

由于具有类似的工程地质和水文地质条件, 在高度相关的降雨作用下, 同一个区域中的降雨诱发浅层斜坡失稳灾害常成群出现。在区域尺度预测浅层斜坡失稳灾害对滑坡灾害的防灾减灾工作具有重要的意义。为此, 提出了一种基于力学原理的降雨诱发浅层斜坡失稳灾害预测新模型RARIL。该模型采用修正Green-Ampt模型进行降雨入渗分析, 采用无限体边坡模型进行安全系数计算, 利用可靠度原理考虑区域斜坡稳定性分析中的参数不确定性。该模型具有可考虑降雨诱发浅层斜坡的失稳力学机理、可考虑区域内斜坡土体参数不确定性, 以及计算效率高、易于在GIS平台上实现等优点。案例分析表明, RARIL模型较为准确地预测了2010年8月12日11∶00至2010年8月14日9∶00期间强降雨在四川省汶川县映秀镇附近的303省道K0-K20段沿线区域引发的滑坡灾害, 研究结果证明RARIL模型在预测降雨诱发区域斜坡失稳灾害方面有很好的应用前景。