近1500年来新疆艾比湖同位素记录的气候环境演化特征

利用介形虫壳体^δ18O,^δ13C及其沉积物有机质^δ13C同位素组成等环境代用指标,重建了西北干旱区艾比湖地区近1500年来气候环境演化特征。结果表明,气候不稳定性不但出现在时段约660～760A.D.及约1380～1500A.D.由暖干变冷湿的气候转换时期,也出现在时段约1050～1150A.D.及约1850～1940A.D.由冷湿变暖干的转换时期。尤其是由冷湿到暖干的气候转换时期,频繁而大幅度的气候变化影响湖泊水环境的稳定连续性,限制了介形虫等湖泊生物的生存,造成湖泊生态环境系统的破坏。而在百年尺度上艾比湖地区气候表现为暖干、冷湿的组合特征。约1850年开始,气候出现明显的干旱化趋势。     

To what extent did changes in temperature affect China's socioeconomic development from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties period?

Analysing the contribution of climate and non-climate change factors to social development and the occurrence of historical events represents important research on the impact of climate change. This study identifies combinations of social subsystem indices affected by temperature changes using the conceptual framework of food security, a priori knowledge and logical reasoning to statistically analyse three 10-year data series (grain harvest grades, famine indices and economic levels) from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties period of ancient China (210 bc to 960 ad ). The results are as follows. For 94 of the 118 decades in the study period, social development was relatively directly related to temperature effects. On a decadal scale, against a cold background, grain production was closely related to temperature conditions in 40.7% of all decades. Economic prosperity and depressions in 5.1 and 21.2% of these decades, respectively, were directly related to temperature effects. Against a warm background, grain production was closely related to temperature conditions in 39% of all decades. Economic prosperity and depressions in 22 and 8.5% of these decades, respectively, were directly related to the temperature effects. The century and decadal-scale characteristics were the same. Specifically, when mostly negative combinations of natural–socioeconomic factors dominated, the proportion of decades was slightly higher in cold than in warm periods. This case study enables a scientific understanding of the effect of changes in mean climate values/trends on social development and further demonstrates the different effects of the climate change process and mechanism. Climate cooling and warming may bring more positive than negative impacts in some regions and more negative than positive impacts in others. Complex feedback may amplify or reduce the impact of climate cooling and warming. Climate that evolves unfavourably has an impact more strongly correlated with the socioeconomic system's vulnerability and adaptability. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国历史时期气候变化对社会发展的影响*

历史时期气候变化对社会发展的影响与人类适应问题,是当前全球变化领域的研究热点之一。近年来,在利用丰富的历史文献资料研究中国历史时期(特别是过去2000年时段)气候变化与人类社会相互作用的过程机理方面取得了一系列新成果。本文将其归纳为3个方面: 理论上,构建了基于粮食安全的气候影响传递过程分析框架;方法上,实现了服务于气候变化影响研究的、基于语义差异的历史社会经济序列定量重建;科学认识上,总结出“冷抑暖扬”而又福祸相依的宏观韵律。在此基础上,对未来研究需要进一步深化的方向进行了展望。     

川北若尔盖高原红原泥炭剖面孢粉记录的晚冰期以来古气候古环境的演变

利用14C测年及孢粉分析方法对位于若尔盖高原的红原泥炭剖面进行了系统研究,重建了若尔盖地区晚冰期以来古环境的演化历史,并识别在此期间发生的主要气候事件.结果表明:该区晚冰期的气候特点为冷偏干或凉偏干,冷暖波动频繁.其中,14.1～13.4、12.4～12.0和10.5～10.0 kaBP之间的冷阶段分别对应于Oldest Dryas、Older Dryas及Younger Dryas事件;发生于12.6～12.4和12.0～10.5kaBP左右的暖阶段分别对应于Bolling及Allerod暖期.Younger Dryas事件之后,气候总体以温湿为主要特征,8.9～8.7和6.1～5.8kaBP之间的明显降温为全新世期间的2次冷事件.孢粉记录所反映的若尔盖地区晚冰期以来的气候演化与全球气候变化具有较好的可比性.     

隋唐时期气候冷暖特征与气候波动

本文依据物候、动物分布、孢粉、雪线和海平面等相关资料,对隋唐时期气候冷暖特征进行了深入研究,重新肯定了竺可桢关于中国近5000年来气候变迁研究的基本结论,并对隋唐温暖期的起讫时代作了修正。在此基础上,对这一时期气候波动状况也作了相应探讨。结果表明,隋唐时期气候冷暖特征是以温暖为主,如与现代气候相比较,则当时年平均温度高1℃左右,气候带的纬度北移1°左右。包括南北朝晚期、五代、北宋中前期在内的隋唐温暖期(550～1050年)存在由温暖－寒冷－温暖的气候波动,其中的寒冷期持续时间约为150年左右(800～950年),第1个温暖期(550－800年)和第2个温暖期(950－1050年)则分别为250年和100年左右。这一现象反映了在持续时间约500年的隋唐温暖期中有渐趋寒冷的趋势,而这正与中国近5000年来气候总体上由暖转寒的趋势相吻合。     

青藏高原末次冰消期气候演化特点及其与格陵兰、欧洲的异同

根据生物、湖泊及冰川地层记录,分析了青藏高原末次冰消期的气候演化特点,并将其与格陵兰、欧洲气候演化序列进行了对比分析.结果表明,末次冰消期的气候演化大致可分为两个阶段:前一阶段为暖期,但波动频繁;格陵兰、欧洲在经历了H1事件后,迅速转暖,Bolling期比Allerod期气候更为适宜;而青藏高原渐趋回暖,夏季风降水逐渐增加,存在由冰融水与降水增加所形成的高湖面,气候温湿,进入一次湖泊扩涨期;大部分记录指示Allerod期比Bolling期气候更为适宜.后一阶段为冷期,格陵兰、欧洲气候恶化并显示出有回返冰期的气候特点;青藏高原气候严酷、荒漠扩展、冰流推进、湖面下降.气候演化的这种异同性表明:格陵兰、欧洲与青藏高原气候系统彼此存在联系,特别是在冷期;而在暖期,气候演化表现出各自的特点.气候演化格局所呈现的可比性,可能是通过冷期的一致而体现的.     

中全新世云南寻甸地区气候演化过程及其驱动机制初步研究

通过对云南寻甸仙人洞XR1石笋进行TIMS-U系测年、氧碳同位素、有机碳含量分析,重建了寻甸地区中全新世季风气候演化模式:(1)8.0～6.0kaB.P.为温暖湿润期;(2)6.0～5.1kaB.P.为气候突变期,气候由温湿变为冷干;(3)5.1～2.1kaB.P.为凉干期。通过石笋有机碳含量与石笋δ18O记录对比,认为石笋有机碳可以反映气候变化,但是存在滞后效应。最后,利用XR1石笋δ18O记录与北半球33°N太阳辐射量,本文初步分析了云南寻甸地区中全新世气候变化的驱动因素:寻甸地区中全新世气候的整体变化趋势受33°N太阳辐射量控制,同时受中全新世火山活动的影响。      

过去2000年气候变化对中国经济与社会发展影响研究综述

It is one of the important focuses of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) to investigate the long-term impacts of climate change on regional social and economic development over the past two millenniums. The past decades in China have witnessed great progresses in the study of past climatic influence on human society. In this paper, reviews have been made on the latest proceedings related with researches about the past 2000-year climatic impacts on Chinese history in terms of the following three aspects: economic fluctuations, social stability, and the rise and fall of dynasties in China. It is concluded that climate change and socio-economic fluctuation in historical China really temporarily demonstrated a good coincidence, which indicates a potential driving-response mechanism was likely embedded in the complicated relationship between climate change and human society. A warm climate provided relatively stable conditions of agricultural production and thus generally played a positive role in the healthy development of the economy and society. On the contrary, socio-economic adverseness triggered by a colder climate was preconditioned with social problems such as the intensification of the contradiction between people and land, as well as the gradual accumulation of social rigidity. These social problems accompanying with social development contributed higher vulnerability of society in the face of changing climate, which to some extent might amplify the effects of climatic deterioration. The authors emphasize that the future studies of the relationship between past climate change and human history in China should attach more attention to the following key problems: making deeper exploitation of the potential of Chinese historical documents, exploring the mechanism of climate-society interaction, and studying the differences of climatic effects on socio-economic development at the regional scale. This study from a historical perspective might enhance the understanding of human-environment relationship under a situation of global warming, and also provide the scientific basis for the sustainable social development in China.     

中全新世云南寻甸地区气候演化与冷干事件的石笋记录

通过对云南寻甸XR1石笋进行TIMS-U系测年、氧碳同位素和沉积速率变化分析,重建了寻甸地区中全新世季风气候演化模式:(1)8.0～6.0 ka BP为温暖湿润期;(2)6.0～5.1 ka BP为气候突变期,温湿向冷干转变;(3)5.1～2.1 ka BP为气候恢复期,气候从冷干逐渐恢复到中全新世正常的气候水平.XR...     

青藏高原东北部共和盆地风成沉积地球化学特征及其揭示的气候变化

通过对共和盆地东部风成沉积的地球化学分析,并结合14C和OSL年代,重建了区域末次盛冰期以来气候变化过程。21 ka BP之前气候寒冷偏湿,21～15.82 ka BP为末次盛冰期(LastGlacial Maximum,LGM),气候极为寒冷干燥;15.82～9.5 ka BP气候转暖且偏干,其中14.5～13.6ka BP和11.9～9.5 ka BP气候明显冷干,分别为老仙女木时期(Oldest Dryas,OD)和新仙女木时期(Younger Dryas,YD),而15.82～14.5 ka BP和13.6～11.9 ka BP(BФlling-AllerФd暖期,B/A)相对温暖;9.5～7.2 ka BP暖湿程度明显提高,7.2～5.1 ka BP气候波动频繁,相对冷干和相对暖湿多次更替。5.1～2.7 ka BP暖湿程度基本稳定,之后气候趋于寒冷但湿度明显较大。这些气候变化过程与青藏高原大量的古气候信息记录具有良好的一致性,表明共和盆地气候变化与青藏高原气候变化的高度一致性。